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We use PyDynamicaLC, a model using the least number of, and the least correlated, degrees of freedom needed to derive a photodynamical model, to describe some of the smallest -- and lowest TTV (transit timing variations) amplitude -- of the Kepler planets. We successfully analyze 64 systems containing 218 planets, for 88 of which we were able to determine significant masses (to better than $3\sigma$). We demonstrate consistency with literature results over two orders of magnitude in mass, and for the planets that already had literature mass estimations, we were able to reduce the relative mass error by $\sim22\%$ (median value). Of the planets with determined masses 23 are new mass determinations with no previous significant literature value, including a planet smaller and lighter than Earth (KOI-1977.02 / Kepler-345 b). These results demonstrate the power of photodynamical modeling with the appropriately chosen degrees of freedom. This will become increasingly more important as smaller planets are detected, especially as the TESS mission gathers ever longer-baseline light curves and for the analysis of the future PLATO mission data, Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures, 3 tables. AJ accepted

Estimation of planetary orbital and physical parameters from light-curve data relies heavily on the accurate interpretation of Transit Timing Variations (TTV) measurements. In this letter, we review the process of TTV measurement and compare two fitting paradigms - one that relies on making transit-by-transit timing estimates and then fitting a TTV model to the observed timings and one that relies on fitting a global flux model to the entire light-curve data simultaneously. The latter method is achieved either by solving for the underlying planetary motion (often referred to as "photodynamics"), or by using an approximate or empirical shape of the TTV signal. We show that across a large range of the transit SNR regime, the probability distribution function (PDF) of the mid-transit time significantly deviates from a Gaussian, even if the flux errors do distribute normally. Treating the timing uncertainties as if they are distributed normally leads, in such a case, to a wrong interpretation of the TTV measurements. We illustrate these points using numerical experiments and conclude that a fitting process that relies on a global flux fitting rather than the derived TTVs, should be preferred., Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures

We fit a dynamical model to Kepler systems that contain four or more transiting planets using the analytic method AnalyticLC, and obtain physical and orbital parameters for 101 planets in 23 systems, of which 95 are of mass significance better than 3 sigma, and 46 are without previously reported mass constraints nor upper limits. In addition, we compile a list of 71 KOIs that display significant Impact Parameter Variations (TbVs), complementing our previously published work on two- and three-transiting planet systems. Together, these works include the detection of significant TbV signals of 130 planets, which is, to our knowledge, the largest catalog of this type to date. The results indicate that the typical detectable TbV rate in the Kepler population is of order 10^{-2} yr^{-1}, and that rapid TbV rates (>~0.05 yr^{-1}) are observed only in systems that contain a transiting planet of an orbital period less than ~20 days. The observed TbV rates are only weakly correlated with orbital period within Kepler's <~100 days-period planets. If this extends to longer periods, it implies a limit on the utility of the transit technique for long-period planets. The TbVs we find may not be detectable in direct impact parameter measurements but rather are inferred from the full dynamics of the system, encoded in all types of transit variations. Finally, we find evidence that the mutual inclinations distribution is qualitatively consistent with the previously suggested AMD (angular momentum deficit) model using an independent approach., Comment: 45 pages, 10 figures, six tables containing exoplanetary parameters. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2112.10144

We apply AnalyticLC, an analytic model described in an accompanying paper, to interpret Kepler data of systems that contain two or three transiting planets. We perform tests to verify that the obtained solutions agree with full N-body integrations, and that the number of model parameters is statistically justified. We probe non-coplanar interactions via impact parameter variations (TbVs), enabled by our analytic model. The subset of systems with a valid solution includes 54 systems composed of 140 planets, more than half of which without previously reported mass constraints. Overall we provide: (1) Estimates on physical and orbital properties for all systems analyzed. (2) 102 planets with mass detections significant to better than 3 standard deviations, 43 of which are lighter than five Earth masses. (3) 35 TbVs significant to better than 3 standard deviations. We focus on select systems showing strong TbVs, which can result from either interaction among the known transiting planets, or with a non-transiting object, and provide: (4) a method to constrain the parameters of such unseen companions. These results are enabled by an accurate, 3D, photodynamical model, of a kind expected to become increasingly important for modeling multi-decade photometric and composite (RV, astrometry) data sets., Comment: 49 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication. Machine-readable tables are included in the source files

We developed and provide AnalyticLC, a novel analytic method and code implementation for dynamical modeling of planetary systems, including non-coplanar interactions, based on a disturbing function expansion to fourth order in eccentricities and inclinations. AnalyticLC calculates the system dynamics in 3D and the resulting model light curve, radial velocity, and astrometry signatures, enabling simultaneous fitting of these data. We show that for a near-resonant chain of three planets, where the two super-periods are close to each other, the TTVs of the pair-wise interactions cannot be directly summed to give the full system TTVs because the super-periods themselves resonate. We derive the simultaneous three-planet correction and include it in AnalyticLC. We compare the model computed by AnalyticLC to synthetic data generated by an N-body integrator, and evaluate its accuracy. Depending on the maximal order of expansion terms kept, AnalyticLC computation time can be up to an order of magnitude faster than state-of-the-art published N-body integrator TTVFast, with smaller enhancement seen at higher order. The advantage increases for long-term observations as our approach's computation time does not depend on the time-span of the data. Depending on the system parameters, the photometric accuracy is typically a few ppm, significantly smaller than typical Kepler's and other observatories' data uncertainty. Our highly efficient and accurate implementation allows full inversion of a large number of observed systems for planetary physical and orbital parameters, presented in a companion paper., Comment: 27 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication

Impacts between planetary-sized bodies can explain the origin of satellites orbiting large ($R>500$~km) trans-Neptunian objects. Their water rich composition, along with the complex phase diagram of water, make it important to accurately model the wide range of thermodynamic conditions material experiences during an impact event and in the debris disk. Since differences in the thermodynamics may influence the system dynamics, we seek to evaluate how the choice of an equation of state (EOS) alters the system's evolution. Specifically, we compare two EOSs that are constructed by different approaches: either by a simplified analytic description (Tillotson), or by interpolation of tabulated data (Sesame). Approximately $50$ pairs of Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics impact simulations were performed, with similar initial conditions but different EOSs, in the parameter space in which the Pluto-Charon binary is thought to form (slow impacts between Pluto-size, water rich bodies). Generally, we show that impact outcomes (e.g., circumplanetary debris disk) are consistent between EOSs. Some differences arise, importantly in the production of satellitesimals (large intact clumps) that form in the post-impact debris disk. When utilizing an analytic EOS, the emergence of satellitesimals is highly certain, while when using the tabulated EOS it is less common. This is because for the typical densities and energies experienced in these impacts, the analytic EOS predicts very low pressure values, leading to particles artificially aggregating by a tensile instability.

Inferring planetary parameters from transit timing variations is challenging for small exoplanets because their transits may be so weak that determination of individual transit timing is difficult or impossible. We implement a useful combination of tools which together provide a numerically fast global photodynamical model. This is used to fit the TTV-bearing light-curve, in order to constrain the masses of transiting exoplanets in low eccentricity, multi-planet systems - and small planets in particular. We present inferred dynamical masses and orbital eccentricities in four multi-planet systems from Kepler's complete long-cadence data set. We test our model against Kepler-36 / KOI-277, a system with some of the most precisely determined planetary masses through TTV inversion methods, and find masses of 5.56 +0.41 -0.45 and 9.76 +0.79 -0.89 m_earth for Kepler-36 b and c, respectively - consistent with literature in both value and error. We then improve the mass determination of the four planets in Kepler-79 / KOI-152, where literature values were physically problematic to 12.5 +4.5 -3.6, 9.5 +2.3 -2:1, 11.3 +2.2 -2.2 and 6.3 +1.0 -1.0 m_earth for Kepler-79 b, c, d and e, respectively. We provide new mass constraints where none existed before for two systems. These are 12.5 +3.2 -2.6 m_earth for Kepler-450 c, and 3.3 +1.7 -1.0 and 17.4 +7.1 -3.8 m_earth for Kepler-595 c (previously KOI-547.03) and b, respectively. The photodynamical code used here, called PyDynamicaLC, is made publicly available.

Non-Keplerian dynamics of planetary orbits manifest in the transit light-curve as variations of different types. In addition to Transit Timing Variations (TTV's), the shape of the transits contains additional information on variations in the geometry of the orbit. This study presents an analytic approach to light-curve fitting: dynamical variations in the orbital elements are transformed to a light-curve using an analytic function with a restricted set of fitting parameters. Our method requires no N-body integration, resulting in a smaller number of degrees of freedom and a faster calculation. The approach described here is for the case of secular perturbations. By assuming that the orbital motion is dominated by nodal and apsidal precessions, analytic expressions for the light-curve transit parameters are derived as a function of the orbital variations. Detecting and characterizing such dynamical scenarios provides information regarding the possible existence of non-transiting companions, or the non-spherical mass distribution of the host star. The variations may imply forces out of the orbital plane, and thus probe mutual inclinations among components of the system. The derived models successfully reproduce the vanishing transit signals of KOI 120.01, and suggest a possible interesting scenario of a planet orbiting one member of a close-in binary system undergoing unusually rapid nodal regression. The model parameters are degenerate, so we provide relevant information for followup observations, which are suggested in order to place further constraints on this unique Kepler object., Comment: 16 pages, 5 figures

Water ice is thought to be trapped in large permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) in the Moon's polar regions, due to their extremely low temperatures. Here, we show that many unmapped cold traps exist on small spatial scales, substantially augmenting the areas where ice may accumulate. Using theoretical models and data from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, we estimate the contribution of shadows on scales from 1 km down to 1 cm, the smallest distance over which we find cold-trapping to be effective for water ice. Approximately 10-20\% of the permanent cold trap area for water is found to be contained in these "micro cold traps," which are the most numerous cold traps on the Moon. Consideration of all spatial scales therefore substantially increases the number of cold traps over previous estimates, for a total area of ~40,000 km^2. A majority of cold traps for water ice is found at latitudes >80{\deg} because permanent shadows equatorward of 80{\deg} are typically too warm to support ice accumulation. Our results show that water trapped at the lunar poles may be more accessible as a resource for future missions than previously thought.

Asteroid pairs had a single progenitor that split due to rotational-fission of a weak, rubble-pile structured body. By constructing shape models of asteroid pairs from multiple-apparition observations and using a lightcurve inversion technique, we mapped the gravitational and rotational accelerations on the surfaces of these asteroids. This allows us to construct a map of local slopes on the asteroids' surfaces. In order to test for frictional failure, we determine the maximum rotation rate at which an area larger than half the surface area of the secondary member (assumed to be the ejected component) has a slope value greater than 40 degrees, the angle of friction of lunar regolith, where loose material will begin sliding. We use this criterion to constrain the failure stress operating on the body, just before disruption at the commonly observed spin barrier of 2.2 h. Our current sample includes shape models of eleven primary members of asteroid pairs, observed from the Wise Observatory in the last decade. In the studied parameter space we find that the shape models only reach the spin barrier when their bulk density is larger than the ~2 gr cm-3 measured for the rubble pile structured 25143 Itokawa, suggesting that km-sized asteroid pairs are dense compared to sub-km bodies. Assuming ejection of secondary components that are larger than those observed (up to the maximal size allowing separation), can also increase the spin barrier of the asteroids, thus supporting the previously suggested scenario of continuous disruption of the secondary. In addition, cohesion levels of hundreds of Pascals are also required to prevent these shape models from disrupting at spin rates slower than the usual spin barrier., Comment: Manuscript under review in Icarus

Current lunar origin scenarios suggest that Earth's Moon may have resulted from the merger of two (or more) smaller moonlets. Dynamical studies of multiple moons find that these satellite systems are not stable, resulting in moonlet collision or loss of one or more of the moonlets. We perform Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamic (SPH) impact simulations of two orbiting moonlets inside the planetary gravitational potential and find that the classical outcome of two bodies impacting in free space is altered as erosive mass loss is more significant with decreasing distance to the planet. Depending on the conditions of accretion, each moonlet could have a distinct isotopic signature, therefore, we assess the initial mixing during their merger, in order to estimate whether future measurements of surface variations could distinguish between lunar origin scenarios (single vs. multiple moonlets). We find that for comparable-size impacting bodies in the accretionary regime, surface mixing is efficient, but in the hit-and-run regime, only a small amount of material is transferred between the bodies. However, sequences of hit-and-run impacts are expected, which will enhance the surface mixing. Overall, our results show that large scale heterogeneities can arise only from the merger of drastically different component masses. Surfaces of moons resulting from the merger of comparable-sized components have little material heterogeneities, and such impacts are preferred, as the relatively massive impactor generates more melt, extending the lunar magma ocean phase., Comment: accepted for publication. 17 pages, 9 Figures

The hypothesis of lunar origin by a single giant impact can explain some aspects of the Earth-Moon system. However, it is difficult to reconcile giant impact models with the compositional similarity of the Earth and Moon without violating angular momentum constraints. Furthermore, successful giant impact scenarios require very specific conditions such that they have a low probability of occurring. Here we present numerical simulations suggesting that the Moon could instead be the product of a succession of a variety of smaller collisions. In this scenario, each collision forms a debris disk around the proto-Earth that then accretes to form a moonlet. The moonlets tidally advance outward, and may coalesce to form the Moon. We find that sub-lunar moonlets are a common result of impacts expected onto the proto-Earth in the early solar system and find that the planetary rotation is limited by impact angular momentum drain. We conclude that, assuming efficient merger of moonlets, a multiple impact scenario can account for the formation of the Earth-Moon system with its present properties.

The layered polar caps of Mars have long been thought to be related to variations in orbit and axial tilt. We dynamically link Mars's past climate variations with the stratigraphy and isotopic composition of its ice by modeling the exchange of H2O and HDO among three reservoirs. The model shows that the interplay among equatorial, mid-latitude, and north-polar layered deposits (NPLD) induces significant isotopic changes in the cap. The diffusive properties of the sublimation lags and dust content in our model result in a cap size consistent with current Mars. The layer thicknesses are mostly controlled by obliquity variations, but the precession period of 50 kyr dominates the variations in the isotopic composition during epochs of relatively low and nearly constant obliquity such as at present. Isotopic sampling of the top 100 meters may reveal climate oscillations unseen in the layer thicknesses and would thus probe recent precession-driven climate cycles., Comment: Paper accepted for publication in Icarus

The Earth-Moon system is suggested to have formed through a single giant collision, in which the Moon accreted from the impact-generated debris disk. However, such giant impacts are rare, and during its evolution the Earth experienced many more smaller impacts, producing smaller satellites that potentially coevolved. In the multiple-impact hypothesis of lunar formation, the current Moon was produced from the mergers of several smaller satellites (moonlets), each formed from debris disks produced by successive large impacts. In the Myrs between impacts, a pre-existing moonlet tidally evolves outward until a subsequent impact forms a new moonlet, at which point both moonlets will tidally evolve until a merger or system disruption. In this work, we examine the likelihood that pre-existing moonlets survive subsequent impact events, and explore the dynamics of Earth-moonlet systems that contain two moonlets generated Myrs apart. We demonstrate that pre-existing moonlets can tidally migrate outward, remain stable during subsequent impacts, and later merge with newly created moonlets (or re-collide with the Earth). Formation of the Moon from the mergers of several moonlets could therefore be a natural byproduct of the Earth's growth through multiple impacts. More generally, we examine the likelihood and consequences of Earth having prior moons, and find that the stability of moonlets against disruption by subsequent impacts implies that several large impacts could post-date Moon formation., Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures, accepted by ApJ

Unraveling the stratigraphic record is the key to understanding ancient climate and past climate changes on Mars. River deposits when placed in stratigraphic order could constrain the number, magnitudes, and durations of the wettest climates in Mars history. We establish the stratigraphic context of river deposits in Aeolis Dorsa sedimentary basin, 10E of Gale crater. Here, wind has exhumed a stratigraphic section of >=4 unconformity-bounded sedimentary rock packages, recording >=3 distinct episodes of surface runoff. Early deposits (>700m thick) are embayed by river deposits (>400m), which are in turn unconformably draped by fan-shaped deposits (<100m) which we interpret as alluvial fans. Yardang-forming deposits (>900 m) unconformably drape all previous deposits. River deposits embay a dissected sedimentary-rock landscape, and comprise >=2 distinguishable units. The total interval spanned by river deposits is >(1x10^6-2x10^7) yr; more if we include alluvial-fan deposits. Alluvial-fan deposits unconformably postdate thrust faults which crosscut river deposits. We infer a relatively dry interval of >4x10^7 yr after river deposits formed and before fan-shaped deposits formed. The time gap between the end of river deposition and the onset of yardang-forming deposits is constrained to >10^8 yr by the density of impact craters embedded at the unconformity. We correlate yardang-forming deposits to the upper layers of Gale crater's mound (Mt. Sharp/Aeolis Mons), and fan-shaped deposits to Peace Vallis fan. Alternations between periods of low vs. high mean obliquity may have modulated erosion-deposition cycling in Aeolis. This is consistent with results from an ensemble of simulations of Solar System orbital evolution and the resulting history of Mars obliquity. Almost all simulations yield intervals of continuously low mean Mars obliquity that are long enough to match our unconformity data.

We used infrared data from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Diviner Lunar Radiometer Experiment to globally map thermophysical properties of the Moon's regolith fines layer. Thermal conductivity varies from 7.4$\times$10$^{-4}$ W m$^{-1}$ K$^{-1}$ at the surface, to 3.4$\times$10$^{-3}$ W m$^{-1}$ K$^{-1}$ at depths of $\sim$1 m, given density values of 1100 kg m$^{-3}$ at the surface, to 1800 kg m$^{-3}$ at 1-m depth. On average, the scale height of these profiles is $\sim$7 cm, corresponding to a thermal inertia of 55 $\pm$2 J m$^{-2}$ K$^{-1}$ s$^{-1/2}$ at 273 K, relevant to the diurnally active near-surface layer, $\sim$4-7 cm. The temperature-dependence of thermal conductivity and heat capacity leads to a $\sim$2$\times$ diurnal variation in thermal inertia at the equator. On global scales, the regolith fines are remarkably uniform, implying rapid homogenization by impact gardening of this layer on timescales $<$ 1 Gyr. Regional and local scale variations show prominent impact features $<$ 1 Gyr old, including higher thermal inertia ($>$ 100 J m$^{-2}$ K$^{-1}$ s$^{-1/2}$) in the interiors and ejecta of Copernican-aged impact craters, and lower thermal inertia ($<$ 50 J m$^{-2}$ K$^{-1}$ s$^{-1/2}$) within the lunar cold spots identified by Bandfield et al. (2014). Observed trends in ejecta thermal inertia provide a potential tool for age-dating craters of previously unknown age, complementary to the approach suggested by Ghent et al. (2014). Several anomalous regions are identified in the global 128 pixels-per-degree maps presented here, including a high-thermal inertia deposit near the antipode of Tycho crater., Comment: Accepted for publication in Journal of Geophysical Research - Planets

The high planetary multiplicity revealed by Kepler implies that Transit Time Variations (TTVs) are intrinsically common. The usual procedure for detecting these TTVs is biased to long-period, deep transit planets whereas most transiting planets have short periods and shallow transits. Here we introduce the Spectral Approach to TTVs technique that allows expanding the TTVs catalog towards lower TTV amplitude, shorter orbital period, and shallower transit depth. In the Spectral Approach we assume that a sinusoidal TTV exists in the data and then calculate the improvement to $\chi^2$ this model allows over that of linear ephemeris model. This enables detection of TTVs even in cases where the transits are too shallow so individual transits cannot be timed. The Spectral Approach is more sensitive due to the reduced number of free parameters in its model. Using the Spectral Approach, we: (a) detect 131 new periodic TTVs in Kepler data (an increase of ~2/3 over a previous TTV catalog); (b) Constrain the TTV periods of 34 long-period TTVs and reduce amplitude errors of known TTVs; (c) Identify cases of multi-periodic TTVs, for which absolute planetary mass determination may be possible. We further extend our analysis by using perturbation theory assuming small TTV amplitude at the detection stage, which greatly speeds up our detection (to a level of few seconds per star). Our extended TTVs sample shows no deficit of short period or low amplitude transits, in contrast to previous surveys in which the detection schemes were significantly biased against such systems., Comment: ApJS accepted. 23 pages, 40 figures

Seven of the nine known Mars Trojan asteroids belong to an orbital cluster named after its largest member 5261 Eureka. Eureka is likely the progenitor of the whole cluster, which formed at least 1 Gyr ago. It was suggested that the thermal YORP effect spun-up Eureka resulting with fragments being ejected by the rotational-fission mechanism. Eureka's spectrum exhibits a broad and deep absorption band around 1 {\mu}m, indicating an olivine-rich composition. Here we show evidence that the Trojan Eureka cluster progenitor could have originated as impact debris excavated from the Martian mantle. We present new near-infrared observations of two Trojans (311999 2007 NS2 and 385250 2001 DH47) and find that both exhibit an olivine-rich reflectance spectrum similar to Eureka's. These measurements confirm that the progenitor of the cluster has an achondritic composition. Olivine-rich reflectance spectra are rare amongst asteroids but are seen around the largest basins on Mars. They are also consistent with some Martian meteorites (e.g. Chassigny), and with the material comprising much of the Martian mantle. Using numerical simulations, we show that the Mars Trojans are more likely to be impact ejecta from Mars than captured olivine-rich asteroids transported from the main belt. This result links directly specific asteroids to debris from the forming planets., Comment: 10 text pages, 3 figures, 3 SI pages

At a mean diameter of ~650 m, the near-Earth asteroid (455213) 2001 OE84 (OE84 for short) has a rapid rotation period of 0.486542+-0.000002 hours, which is uncommon for asteroids larger than ~200 m. We revisited OE84 14 years after it was first, and last, observed by Pravec et al. (2002) in order to measure again its spin rate and to search for changes. We have confirmed the rapid rotation and, by fitting the photometric data from 2001 and 2016 using the lightcurve inversion technique, we determined a retrograde sense of rotation, with the spin axis close to the ecliptic south pole; an oblate shape model of a/b=1.32+-0.04 and b/c=1.8+-0.2; and no change in spin rate between 2001 and 2016. Using these parameters we constrained the body's internal strength, and found that current estimations of asteroid cohesion (up to ~80 Pa) are insufficient to maintain an intact rubble pile at the measured spin rate of OE84. Therefore, we argue that a monolithic asteroid, that can rotate at the rate of OE84 without shedding mass and without slowing down its spin rate, is the most plausible for OE84, and we give constraints on its age, since the time it was liberated from its parent body, between 2-10 million years., Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables. Accepted for publication in Icarus

We model the primary crater production of small (D < 100 m) primary craters on Mars and the Moon using the observed annual flux of terrestrial fireballs. From the size-frequency distribution (SFD) of meteor diameters, with appropriate velocity distributions for Mars and the Moon, we are able to reproduce martian and lunar crater-count chronometry systems (isochrons) in both slope and magnitude. We include an atmospheric model for Mars that accounts for the deceleration, ablation, and fragmentation of meteors. We find that the details of the atmosphere or the fragmentation of the meteors do not strongly influence our results. The downturn in the crater SFD from atmospheric filtering is predicted to occur at D ~ 10-20 cm, well below the downturn observed in the distribution of fresh craters detected by the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) or the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) Context Camera (CTX). Crater counts conducted on the ejecta blanket of Zunil crater on Mars and North Ray crater on the Moon yielded crater SFDs with similar slopes and ages (~1 Ma, and ~58 Ma, respectively) to our model, indicating that the average cratering rate has been constant on these bodies over these time periods. Since our Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the existing crater chronology systems can be applied to date young surfaces using small craters on the Moon and Mars, we conclude that the signal from secondary craters in the isochrons must be relatively small, as our Monte Carlo model only generates primary craters., Comment: Under review with Icarus

Cometary activity in main-belt asteroids probes the ice content of these objects and provides clues to the history of volatiles in the inner solar system. We search the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) survey to derive upper limits on the population size of active main-belt comets (MBCs). From data collected March 2009 through July 2012, we extracted 2 million observations of 220 thousand known main-belt objects (40% of the known population, down to 1-km diameter) and discovered 626 new objects in multi-night linked detections. We formally quantify the extendedness of a small-body observation, account for systematic variation in this metric (e.g., due to on-sky motion) and evaluate this method's robustness in identifying cometary activity using observations of 115 comets, including two known candidate MBCs and six newly-discovered non-main-belt comets (two of which were originally designated as asteroids by other surveys). We demonstrate a 66% detection efficiency with respect to the extendedness distribution of the 115 sampled comets, and a 100% detection efficiency with respect to extendedness levels greater than or equal to those we observed in the known candidate MBCs P/2010 R2 (La Sagra) and P/2006 VW139. Using a log-constant prior, we infer 95% confidence upper limits of 33 and 22 active MBCs (per million main-belt asteroids down to 1-km diameter), for detection efficiencies of 66% and 100%, respectively. In a follow-up to this morphological search, we will perform a photometric (disk-integrated brightening) search for MBCs., Comment: 19 pages, 15 figures. Accepted 30-May-2013 to Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society (MNRAS)

The decay of the martian atmosphere - which is dominated by carbon dioxide - is a component of the long-term environmental change on Mars from a climate that once allowed rivers to flow to the cold and dry conditions of today. The minimum size of craters serves as a proxy for palaeopressure of planetary atmospheres, because thinner atmospheres permit smaller objects to reach the surface at high velocities and form craters. The Aeolis Dorsa region near Gale crater on Mars contains a high density of preserved ancient craters interbedded with river deposits and thus can provide constraints on atmospheric density around the time of fluvial activity. Here we use high-resolution orthophotos and digital terrain models from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter to identify ancient craters in Aeolis Dorsa that date to about 3.6 Gyr ago and compare their size distribution with models of atmospheric filtering of impactors. We obtain an upper limit of 0.9$\pm$0.1 bar, rising to 1.9$\pm$0.2 bar if rimmed circular mesas - interpreted to be erosionally-resistant fills of floors of impact craters - are excluded. We assume target properties appropriate for desert alluvium: if sediment had rock-like rock-mass strength similar to bedrock at the time of impact, the upper limit increases by a factor of up to two. If Mars did not have a stable multibar atmosphere at the time that the rivers were flowing - as suggested by our results - then the warm and wet CO2/H2O greenhouse is ruled out, and long-term average temperatures were most likely below freezing.

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