Search

BACKGROUND: Identifying community characteristics associated with firearm assault could facilitate prevention. We investigated the effect of community firearm dealer and alcohol outlet densities on individual risk of firearm assault injury. METHODS: In this density-sampled case-control study of Californians, January 2005-September 2015, cases comprised all residents with a fatal or nonfatal firearm assault injury. For each month, we sampled controls from the state population in a 4:1 ratio with cases. Exposures were monthly densities of county-level pawn and nonpawn firearm dealers and ZIP code-level off-premises alcohol outlets and bars and pubs (bars/pubs). We used case-control-weighted G-computation to estimate risk differences (RD) statewide and among younger Black men, comparing observed exposure densities to hypothetical interventions setting these densities to low. We estimated additive interactions between firearm and alcohol retailer density. Secondary analyses examined interventions targeted to high exposure density or outcome burden areas. RESULTS: There were 67,850 cases and 268,122 controls. Observed (vs. low) densities of pawn firearm dealers and off-premises alcohol outlets were individually associated with elevated monthly risk of firearm assault per 100,000 people (RD pawn dealers : 0.06, 95% CI: 0.05, 0.08; RD off-premises outlets : 0.01, 95% CI: 0.01, 0.03), but nonpawn firearm dealer and bar/pub density were not; models targeting only areas with the highest outcome burden were similar. Among younger Black men, estimates were larger. There was no interaction between firearm and alcohol retailer density. CONCLUSIONS: Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that limiting pawn firearm dealers and off-premises alcohol outlet densities can reduce interpersonal firearm violence.

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is a potential strategy for addressing challenges in accurate estimation of abortion incidence, but it relies on often untested assumptions. We conducted an RDS study to estimate the cumulative lifetime incidence of abortion in Soweto, Johannesburg, South Africa (April-December 2018), to evaluate whether RDS assumptions were met, and to compare RDS estimates of incidence with estimates adjusted for employment and age based on census data. A total of 849 participants were recruited from 11 seed participants between April and December 2018. The assumption that individuals can identify target population members and the assumption of approximation of sampling with replacement was met. There were minor violations of the assumptions of seed independence from the final sample and reciprocity of ties. Assumptions of accurate degree reporting and random recruitment were not met. Failure to meet assumptions yielded a study sample with different employment characteristics than those of the target population; this could not be resolved by standard RDS methods. The RDS estimate of cumulative lifetime abortion incidence was 12.1% (95% confidence interval: 9.8, 14.3), and the employment-adjusted estimate was 16.9% (95% confidence interval: 12.8, 22.1). We caution researchers in using RDS for representative estimates of abortion incidence. Use of postsurvey weights to adjust for differences in characteristics between the sample and the target population may yield more representative results.

Interest in using internet search data, such as that from the Google Health Trends Application Programming Interface (GHT-API), to measure epidemiologically relevant exposures or health outcomes is growing due to their accessibility and timeliness. Researchers enter search term(s), geography, and time period, and the GHT-API returns a scaled probability of that search term, given all searches within the specified geographic-time period. In this study, we detailed a method for using these data to measure a construct of interest in 5 iterative steps: first, identify phrases the target population may use to search for the construct of interest; second, refine candidate search phrases with incognito Google searches to improve sensitivity and specificity; third, craft the GHT-API search term(s) by combining the refined phrases; fourth, test search volume and choose geographic and temporal scales; and fifth, retrieve and average multiple samples to stabilize estimates and address missingness. An optional sixth step involves accounting for changes in total search volume by normalizing. We present a case study examining weekly state-level child abuse searches in the United States during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic (January 2018 to August 2020) as an application of this method and describe limitations.

In 2011, a historic Supreme Court decision mandated that the state of California substantially reduce its prison population to alleviate overcrowding, which was deemed so severe as to preclude the provision of adequate healthcare. To comply, California passed the Public Safety Realignment Act (Assembly Bill [AB] 109), representing the largest ever court-ordered reduction of a prison population in U.S. history. AB109 was successful in reducing the state prison population; however, although the policy was precipitated by inadequate healthcare in state prisons, no studies have examined its effects on prisoner health. As other states grapple with overcrowded prisons and look to Californias experience with this landmark policy, understanding how it may have impacted prisoner health is critical. We sought to evaluate the effects of AB109 on prison mortality and assess the extent to which policy-induced changes in the age distribution of prisoners may have contributed to these effects. To do so, we used prison mortality data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics and the California Deaths in Custody reporting program and prison population data from the National Corrections Reporting Program to examine changes in overall prison mortality, the age distribution of prisoners, and age-adjusted prison mortality in California relative to other states before and after the implementation of AB109. Following AB109, California prisons experienced an increase in overall mortality relative to other states that attenuated within three years. Over the same period, California experienced a greater upward shift in the age distribution of its prisoners relative to other states, suggesting that the states increase in overall mortality may have been driven by this change in age distribution. Indeed, when accounting for this differential change in age distribution, mortality among California prisoners exhibited a greater reduction relative to other states in the third year after implementation. As other states seek to reduce their prison populations to address overcrowding, assessments of Californias experience with AB109 should consider this potential improvement in age-adjusted mortality.

Firearm availability has been linked to firearm self-harm, but the joint relationship with alcohol availability, while supported by theory, has not been examined. This study sought to quantify the separate and joint relations of community firearm and alcohol availability with individual-level risk of (fatal and nonfatal) firearm self-harm. We conducted a case-control study of California residents, 2005-2015, using statewide mortality, hospital, firearm transfer, and alcohol license data. We estimated monthly marginal risk differences per 100,000 in the overall population and in white men aged 50+ under various hypothetical changes to firearm and alcohol availability and assessed additive interactions using case-control-weighted g-computation. In the overall population, non-pawn shop firearm dealer density was associated with firearm self-harm (RD: 0.02, 95% CI: 0.003, 0.04) but pawn shop firearm dealer and alcohol outlet densities were not. Secondary analyses revealed a relationship between firearm sales density and firearm self-harm (RD: 0.07, 95% CI: 0.04, 0.10). There were no additive interactions between measures of firearm and alcohol availability. Among older white men, generally the same exposures were related to self-harm as in the overall population, but point estimates were substantially larger. Findings suggest community-level approaches to reducing firearm sales may help mitigate suicide risk.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to unemployment, school closures, movement restrictions, and social isolation, all of which are child abuse risk factors. Our objective was to estimate the effect of COVID-19 shelter in place (SIP) policies on child abuse as captured by Google searches. We applied a differences-in-differences design to estimate the effect of SIP on child abuse search volume. We linked state-level SIP policies to outcome data from the Google Health Trends Application Programming Interface. The outcome was searches for child abuse-related phrases as a scaled proportion of total searches for each state-week between December 31, 2017 and June 14, 2020. Between 914 and 1512 phrases were included for each abuse subdomain (physical, sexual, and emotional). Eight states and DC were excluded because of suppressed outcome data. Of the remaining states, 38 introduced a SIP policy between March 19, 2020 and April 7, 2020 and 4 states did not. The introduction of SIP generally led to no change, except for a slight reduction in child abuse search volume in weeks 8-10 post-SIP introduction, net of changes experienced by states that did not introduce SIP at the same time. We did not find strong evidence for an effect of SIP on child abuse searches. However, an increase in total search volume during the pandemic that may be differential between states with and without SIP policies could have biased these findings. Future work should examine the effect of SIP at the individual and population level using other data sources.

ImportanceCalifornia's gun violence restraining order (GVRO) law, implemented beginning in 2016, allows for people at high risk of harming themselves or others with a firearm to be temporarily disarmed and prevented from purchasing firearms for 3 weeks to 1 year; many states have recently enacted similar laws. The research to date is on older and more limited risk-warrant laws.ObjectiveTo determine whether implementation of the California GVRO law was associated with decreased rates of firearm assault or firearm self-harm in a large metropolitan county between 2016 and 2019.Design, setting, and participantsThis serial cross-sectional study including data from 28 counties used the synthetic control method to evaluate differences in firearm violence between San Diego County and its synthetic control following implementation of the California law from 2016 to 2019. San Diego County was used as the treated unit because it issued substantially more GVROs than any other county in California during the study period. A total of 27 California counties that issued no or very few gun violence restraining orders from 2016 to 2019 and that had stable rates of firearm violence between 2005 and 2015 were included in the control pool. Data were analyzed from February 2021 to July 2021.ExposuresImplementation of the statewide GVRO law in 2016 in San Diego County.Main outcomes and measuresAnnual rates of fatal and nonfatal firearm assault injuries and firearm self-harm injuries per 100 000 people.ResultsIn the study period, there were 355 GVROs in San Diego county, and a median (IQR) total of 8 (3-20) GVROs per donor county. The mean difference between the observed rate in San Diego County and the estimated rate in the synthetic San Diego County, 2016-2019, was -0.74 firearm assaults per 100 000 (-13% difference) and 0.13 firearm self-harm injuries per 100 000 (3% difference). Results from in-space placebo tests suggested that these differences cannot be distinguished from variation due to chance (pseudo-P values from a 1-sided test: P for assault = .35, P for self-harm = .67).Conclusions and relevanceTo our knowledge, this study was the first to analyze the association between GVRO implementation and firearm violence in California and the first to evaluate the association between risk-based firearm removal laws and firearm assault in any state. GVROs were not associated with reduced population-level rates of firearm violence in San Diego County, but this may change as the number of orders increases over time; the association between GVROs and firearm violence at the individual level cannot be inferred from our findings and should be the subject of future studies.

Inequitable gender norms and beliefs contribute to increased sexual risk behavior, and, among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW), risk of HIV acquisition. We investigated the longitudinal measurement properties of the Gender Equitable Men's Scale (GEMS) when applied to a cohort of AGYW in rural South Africa (2011-2015). We used item response theory [Person-Item maps, Differential Item Functioning (DIF)] and measurement invariance confirmatory factor analysis models to assess the validity and reliability of the GEMS instrument. Item difficulty and endorsement of gender equitable beliefs both shifted over time. DIF analysis identified item bias for over half of the items; influenced by age, pregnancy, sexual debut, and intimate partner violence. Measurement invariance models revealed strong longitudinal invariance properties. GEMS is a reliable longitudinal measurement of gender equitable beliefs, with notable bias for specific items when administered to subgroups. Additional items specific to the adolescent experience are warranted for a more stable assessment of gender equitable beliefs in a population facing shifting norms as they mature.

AIMS: To evaluate associations between new types of buprenorphine waivers (nurse practitioner and physician assistant [NP/PA]; 275-patient limit [MD/DO-275]) and both buprenorphine prescribing and health outcomes. METHODS: Using comprehensive county-level data from California 2010-2018, we modeled quarterly associations between numbers of NP/PA and MD/DO-275 waivers and rates of buprenorphine prescribing, opioid-related deaths, emergency department (ED) visits, and hospitalizations among all counties and separately among metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties using Poisson regression models with county and quarter fixed effects and adjusting for time-varying covariates. RESULTS: Each additional NP/PA and MD/DO-275 waiver was associated with a 2.6% (95%CI: 1.1-4.1%) and 5.8% (4.1-7.4%) increase in buprenorphine prescribing among nonmetropolitan counties, respectively. Each additional MD/DO-275 waiver was associated with a 2.8% (1.0%-4.6%) increase in buprenorphine among metropolitan counties. There were no statistically significant associations between NP/PA waivers and buprenorphine prescribing among metropolitan counties or among either waiver type and opioid-related health outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: NP/PA waivers were associated with increased buprenorphine prescribing among nonmetropolitan counties and MD/DO-275 waivers were associated with increased buprenorphine prescribing among both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties.

BACKGROUND: After decades of liberal opioid prescribing, multiple efforts have been made to reduce reliance upon opioids in clinical care. Little is known about the effects of opioid prescribing policies on outcomes beyond opioid prescribing. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the combined effects of multiple opioid prescribing policies implemented in a safety-net primary care clinic in San Francisco, CA, in 2013-2014. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study and conditional difference-in-differences analysis of nonrandomized clinic-level policies. PATIENTS: 273 patients prescribed opioids for chronic non-cancer pain in 2013 at either the treated (n=151) or control clinic (n=122) recruited and interviewed in 2017-2018. INTERVENTIONS: Policies establishing standard protocols for dispensing opioid refills and conducting urine toxicology testing, and a new committee facilitating opioid treatment decisions for complex patient cases. MAIN MEASURES: Opioid prescription (active prescription, mean dose in morphine milligram equivalents [MME]) from electronic medical charts, and heroin and opioid analgesics not prescribed to the patient (any use, use frequency) from a retrospective interview. KEY RESULTS: The interventions were associated with a reduction in mean prescribed opioid dose in the first three post-policy years (year 1 conditional difference-in-differences estimate: -52.0 MME [95% confidence interval: -109.9, -10.6]; year 2: -106.2 MME [-195.0, -34.6]; year 3: -98.6 MME [-198.7, -23.9]; year 4: -72.6 MME [-160.4, 3.6]). Estimates suggest a possible positive association between the interventions and non-prescribed opioid analgesic use (year 3: 5.2 absolute percentage points [-0.1, 11.2]) and use frequency (year 3: 0.21 ordinal frequency scale points [0.00, 0.47]) in the third post-policy year. CONCLUSIONS: Clinic-level opioid prescribing policies were associated with reduced dose, although the control clinic achieved similar reductions by the fourth post-policy year, and the policies may have been associated with increased non-prescribed opioid analgesic use. Clinicians should balance the urgency to reduce opioid prescribing with potential harms from rapid change.

PurposePopulation-based surveys are possible sources from which to draw representative control data for case-control studies. However, these surveys involve complex sampling that could lead to biased estimates of measures of association if not properly accounted for in analyses. Approaches to incorporating complex-sampled controls in density-sampled case-control designs have not been examined.MethodsWe used a simulation study to evaluate the performance of different approaches to estimating incidence density ratios (IDR) from case-control studies with controls drawn from complex survey data using risk-set sampling. In simulated population data, we applied four survey sampling approaches, with varying survey sizes, and assessed the performance of four analysis methods for incorporating survey-based controls.ResultsEstimates of the IDR were unbiased for methods that conducted risk-set sampling with probability of selection proportional to survey weights. Estimates of the IDR were biased when sampling weights were not incorporated, or only included in regression modeling. The unbiased analysis methods performed comparably and produced estimates with variance comparable to biased methods. Variance increased and confidence interval coverage decreased as survey size decreased.ConclusionsUnbiased estimates are obtainable in risk-set sampled case-control studies using controls drawn from complex survey data when weights are properly incorporated.

IntroductionIn September 2014, CVS Health ceased tobacco sales in all of its 7700 pharmacies nationwide. We investigate the impact of the CVS policy on the number of cigarettes smoked per day among metropolitan daily and non-daily smokers, who may respond to the availability of smoking cues in different manners.MethodsData are from the US Census Bureau Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey 2014-2015 and the Blue Cross and Blue Shield Institute Community Health Management Hub. Adjusted difference-in-difference (DID) regressions assess changes in the number of cigarettes smoked per day among daily smokers (n=10 759) and non-daily smokers (n=3055), modelling core-based statistical area (CBSA) level CVS pharmacy market share continuously. To assess whether the policy had non-linear effects across the distribution of CVS market share, we also examine market share using tertiles.ResultsCVS's tobacco-free pharmacy policy was associated with a significant reduction in the number of cigarettes smoked by non-daily smokers in the continuous DID (rate ratio=0.985, p=0.022), with a larger reduction observed among non-daily smokers in CBSAs in the highest third of CVS market share compared with those living in CBSAs with no CVS presence (rate ratio=0.706, p=0.027). The policy, however, was not significantly associated with differential changes in the number of cigarettes by daily smokers.ConclusionThe removal of tobacco products from CVS pharmacies was associated with a reduction in the number of cigarettes smoked per day among non-daily smokers in metropolitan CBSAs, particularly those in which CVS had a large pharmacy market share.

Poverty alleviation programs can reduce HIV incidence but may have greater impacts when combined with other psychosocial interventions. We modeled the change in HIV incidence among South African adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) associated with combining a cash transfer (the South African Child Support Grant (CSG)) with other structural and behavioral interventions. We modeled observational data from the HPTN 068 study where 2328 HIV negative AGYW (13-20 years) were followed for 4 years. In a Monte Carlo simulation based on this cohort (N = 10,000), CSG receipt was not independently associated with HIV incidence. Providing the CSG combined with increasing caregiver care and reducing adolescent depression had the largest reduction in HIV incidence with the fewest number of combined interventions (RD - 3.0%; (95% CI - 5.1%, - 0.9%). Combining a monthly grant with interventions to increase caregiver care and reduce adolescent depression could substantially reduce HIV incidence above the provision of cash alone.

BackgroundCombination interventions may be an effective way to prevent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in adolescent girls and young women. However, current studies are not designed to understand which specific interventions and combinations will be most effective. We estimate the possible impacts of interventions on a combination of factors associated with HIV.MethodsWe used the g-formula to model interventions on combinations of HIV risk factors to identify those that would prevent the most incident HIV infections, including low school attendance, intimate partner violence, depression, transactional sex, and age-disparate partnerships. We used data from the HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 068 study in rural South Africa from 2011 to 2017. We estimated HIV incidence under a potential intervention that reduced each risk factor and compared this to HIV incidence under the current distribution of these risk factors.ResultsAlthough many factors had strong associations with HIV, potential intervention estimates did not always suggest large reductions in HIV incidence because the prevalence of risk factors was low. When modeling combination effects, an intervention to increase schooling, decrease depression, and decease transactional sex showed the largest reduction in incident infection (risk difference, -1.4%; 95% confidence interval [CI], -2.7% to -.2%), but an intervention on only transactional sex and depression still reduced HIV incidence by -1.3% (95% CI, -2.6% to -.2%).ConclusionsTo achieve the largest reductions in HIV, both prevalence of the risk factor and strength of association with HIV must be considered. Additionally, intervening on more risk factors may not necessarily result in larger reductions in HIV incidence.

Inequitable gender norms and beliefs contribute to increased sexual risk behavior, and, among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW), risk of HIV acquisition. We investigated the longitudinal measurement properties of the Gender Equitable Men's Scale (GEMS) when applied to a cohort of AGYW in rural South Africa (2011-2015). We used item response theory [Person-Item maps, Differential Item Functioning (DIF)] and measurement invariance confirmatory factor analysis models to assess the validity and reliability of the GEMS instrument. Item difficulty and endorsement of gender equitable beliefs both shifted over time. DIF analysis identified item bias for over half of the items; influenced by age, pregnancy, sexual debut, and intimate partner violence. Measurement invariance models revealed strong longitudinal invariance properties. GEMS is a reliable longitudinal measurement of gender equitable beliefs, with notable bias for specific items when administered to subgroups. Additional items specific to the adolescent experience are warranted for a more stable assessment of gender equitable beliefs in a population facing shifting norms as they mature.

BackgroundExposure to fatal police violence may play a role in population-level inequities in risk for preterm delivery.ObjectiveTo evaluate whether exposure to fatal police violence during pregnancy affects the hazard of preterm delivery and whether associations differ by race/ethnicity and fetal sex.MethodsWe leveraged temporal variation in incidents of fatal police violence within census tracts to assess whether occurrence of fatal police violence in a person's tract during pregnancy was associated with increased hazard of extremely (20-27 weeks), early (28-31 weeks), moderate (32-33 weeks), and late (32-36 weeks) preterm delivery in California from 2007 to 2015. We used both death records and the Fatal Encounters database to identify incidents of fatal police violence. We estimated hazard ratios (HR) using time-varying Cox proportional hazard models stratified by census tract, controlling for age, race/ethnicity, educational attainment, health insurance type, parity, and the year and season of conception. We further stratified by race/ethnicity and infant sex to evaluate whether there were differential effects by these characteristics.ResultsExposure to an incident of fatal police violence was associated with a small increase in the hazard of late preterm birth using both the death records (N = 376,029; hazard ratio [HR] 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00, 1.10) and the Fatal Encounters data (N = 938,814; HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.00, 1.06). We also observed an association for moderate preterm birth in the Fatal Encounters data (HR 1.06, 95% CI 0.98, 1.15). We did not observe associations for early or extremely preterm birth in either data source. Larger relative hazards of moderate (HR 1.25, 95% CI 0.93, 1.68) and late preterm delivery (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.05, 1.33) were observed among Black birth parents with female births in the Fatal Encounters data.ConclusionsPreventing police use of lethal force may reduce preterm delivery in communities where such violence occurs.

Background and aimsIn June 2012, Washington state (USA) implemented Initiative 1183, privatizing liquor sales. As a result, off-premises outlets increased from 330 to over 1400 and trading hours lengthened. Increased availability of liquor may lead to increased consumption. This study examines the impact of Initiative 1183 on alcohol-related adverse health outcomes, measured by inpatient hospitalizations for alcohol-related disorders and accidental injuries. It further assesses heterogeneity by urbanicity, because outlets increased most in metropolitan-urban areas.DesignCounty-by-quarter difference-in-difference linear regression models, estimated statewide and within metropolitan/rural strata.Setting and participantsData are from AHRQ Healthcare Cost and Utilization State Inpatient Database 2010-2014 and HHS Area Health Resource File 2010-2014. Changes in the rates of hospitalizations in the 2.5 years following Initiative 1183 in Washington (n = 39 counties) are compared with changes in Oregon (n = 36 counties).MeasurementsCounty rates of hospitalizations per 1000 residents, including all records with any-listed ICD-9 Clinical Classification Software code denoting an alcohol-related disorder, and all records with any-listed external cause of injury code denoting an accidental injury.FindingsThe increase in the rate of accidental injury hospitalizations in Washington's metropolitan-urban counties was on average 0.289 hospitalizations per 1000 county residents per quarter greater than the simultaneous increase observed in Oregon (P = 0.017). This result was robust to alternative specifications using a propensity score matched sample and synthetic control methods with data from other comparison states. The evidence did not suggest that Initiative 1183 was associated with differential changes in the rate of hospitalizations for alcohol-related disorders in metropolitan-urban (P = 0.941), non-metropolitan-urban (P = 0.162), or rural counties (P = 0.876).ConclusionsImplementing Washington's Initiative 1183 (privatizing liquor sales) appears to have been associated with a significant increase in the rate of accidental injury hospitalizations in urban counties in that state but does not appear to be significantly associated with changes in the rate of hospitalizations specifically for alcohol-related disorders within 2.5 years.

BackgroundFirearm dealer density is correlated with firearm interpersonal violence, but no quasi-experimental studies have assessed whether changes in dealer density lead to changes in firearm self-harm injuries and deaths. We assessed whether openings of firearm dealers are associated with short-term changes in local firearm self-harm injury rates.MethodsWe identified 718 openings of firearm dealers in California using licensing data, 2014-2016. We defined exposure regions based on aggregations of zip codes defined by proximity to firearm dealer openings and matched each opening to four control regions on time and determinants of firearm injury. We applied a differences-in-differences approach to compare rates of firearm self-harm, in the month before and after each opening, in places with and without openings.ResultsFirearm dealer openings were not associated with acute, local changes in firearm self-harm relative to places without openings (ratio of rate ratio: 0.90 [95% CI:0.68-1.19]). Results were robust to numerous sensitivity and secondary analyses.ConclusionWe found no associations of firearm dealer openings with acute, localized firearm self-harm deaths and injuries. Our focus on acute, local effects; broad availability of dealers and firearms; durability of firearms; or strong confounding-control may explain these null findings.

Firearm violence may indirectly affect health among pregnant women living in neighborhoods where it is endemic. We used birth, death, emergency department, and hospitalization data from California from 2007-2011 to estimate the association between living in a neighborhood with high firearm violence and preterm delivery, and assessed whether there was mediation by diagnoses of pregnancy complications and health behaviors during pregnancy. We used an ensemble machine learning algorithm to predict the propensity for neighborhoods to be classified as having a high level of firearm violence. Risk differences for the total effect and stochastic direct and indirect effects were estimated using targeted maximum likelihood. Residence in high-violence neighborhoods was associated with higher prevalence of preterm birth (risk difference (RD) = 0.46, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.13, 0.80), infections (RD = 1.34, 95% CI: -0.17, 2.86), asthma (RD = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.03, 1.48), and substance use (RD = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.00, 1.47). The largest indirect effects for the association between violence and preterm birth were observed for infection (stochastic indirect effect = 0.04, 95% CI: 0.00, 0.08) and substance use (stochastic indirect effect = 0.04, 95% CI: 0.01, 0.06). Firearm violence was associated with risk of preterm delivery, and this association was partially mediated by infection and substance use.

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in sub-Saharan Africa is a critical public health problem. We assessed whether depressive symptoms in AGYW were longitudinally associated with incident HIV, and identified potential social and behavioral mediators. Data came from a randomized trial of a cash transfer conditional on school attendance among AGYW (ages 13-21 years) in rural Mpumalanga Province, South Africa, during 2011-2017. We estimated the relationship between depressive symptoms and cumulative HIV incidence using a linear probability model, and we assessed mediation using inverse odds ratio weighting. Inference was calculated using the nonparametric bootstrap. AGYW with depressive symptoms had higher cumulative incidence of HIV compared with those without (risk difference = 3.5, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.1, 7.0). The strongest individual mediators of this association were parental monitoring and involvement (indirect effect = 1.6, 95% CI: 0.0, 3.3) and reporting a partner would hit her if she asked him to wear a condom (indirect effect = 1.5, 95% CI: -0.3, 3.3). All mediators jointly explained two-thirds (indirect effect = 2.4, 95% CI: 0.2, 4.5) of the association between depressive symptoms and HIV incidence. Interventions addressing mental health might reduce risk of acquiring HIV among AGYW.

PurposeSchooling is associated with a lower risk of Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) in adolescent girls and young women, but there is little understanding of the pathways underlying this relationship.MethodsWe used data from adolescent girls and young women in South Africa enrolled in the HIV Prevention Trials Network 068 study. We tested a structural equation model where individual household and community education measures were associated directly and indirectly with incident HSV-2 through HIV knowledge, future aspirations, age-disparate partnerships, sex in the last 12 months, and condomless sex.ResultsCommunity, household, and individual measures of schooling were all associated with incident HSV-2 infection through mediated pathways that increased the likelihood of having sex. Low school attendance (

PurposeAdolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in South Africa experience a disproportionately high burden of HIV acquisition. National HIV prevalence among AGYW increases nearly three-fold during the transition from late teenage years to their early twenties. We investigated whether beliefs about gender equity influence subsequent HIV acquisition among AGYW in South Africa.MethodsWe used data from the HIV Prevention Trials Network 068, a longitudinal conditional cash transfer study of AGYW in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Gender-equitable beliefs were measured at the level of the individual and summarized among school peers and adults in the community using the Gender Equitable Men's Scale (GEMS). Generalized estimating equation regression was used to assess the association between individual, peer and community GEMS and HIV incidence, herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) incidence, and other HIV risk factors while accounting for repeated observations and clustering.ResultsA total of 2,533 AGYW were followed up for up to 5 years. Adjusting for potential confounders, a unit increase in peer GEMS scores (i.e. more equitable) were significantly protective against subsequent HIV acquisition (risk difference = -.019; 95% confidence interval: -.032, -.006) and subsequent HSV-2 acquisition (risk difference = -.020; 95% confidence interval: -.040, -.000). Low individual and community GEMS scores were associated with multiple HIV risk factors but not with HIV or HSV-2 incidence directly.ConclusionSchool-level peer endorsement of gender equity may be protective against HIV and HSV-2 incidence among AGYW. Interventions that increase gender equity at the individual level and at the level of the social environment, particularly among school peers, have the potential for protective effects on the health of AGYW.

PurposeYoung trans women (YTW) carry a disproportionate burden of HIV. The developmental context of HIV risk for YTW is underexamined. The aim of this analysis was to examine whether parent/caregiver responses to gender identity were associated with engagement in HIV-related sexual risk behavior for YTW and whether these associations varied by racial/ethnic identity or age.MethodsBaseline data from the SHINE study (n = 300) at San Francisco Department of Public Health (2012-2014) were analyzed. Multivariable Poisson binomial regression models characterized relationships between parent/caregiver responses to gender identity and HIV-related sexual risk behaviors, adjusting for select participant demographics. Statistically significant interactions (by race/ethnicity or age) were plotted using marginal predicted probabilities of sexual risk behaviors.ResultsThirty-seven percent of YTW engaged in any condomless anal intercourse; 12% reported income from sex work in the last month. Ever moving away from family and friends because of gender identity was associated with condomless anal intercourse (adjusted prevalence ratio [PR] = 1.44, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.08-1.92, p = .01) and sex work (PR = 2.07, 95% CI = 1.14-3.75, p=.02). Ever receiving poor treatment from parents/caregivers because of gender identity was associated with sex work (PR = 3.47, 95% CI = 1.52-7.95, p < .01). Greater parent/caregiver acceptance of gender identity was associated with lower adjusted prevalence of condomless anal intercourse for Hispanic/Latinx YTW.ConclusionsNegative parent/caregiver exposures related to YTW's gender identities were associated with increased HIV-related sexual risk behaviors, whereas parent/caregiver acceptance of gender identity was protective against condomless anal intercourse for Hispanic/Latinx YTW. There is a need for additional studies that inform interventions for YTW focusing on parent/caregiver relationships to prevent HIV-related risk behavior.

BackgroundCommunity violence is an understudied aspect of social context that may affect risk of preterm birth and small-for-gestational age (SGA).MethodsWe matched California mothers with live singleton births who were exposed to a homicide in their Census tract of residence in 2007-2011 to unexposed mothers within the same tract. We estimated risk differences with a weighted linear probability model, with weights corresponding to the matched data structure. We estimated the average treatment effect on the treated of homicide exposure on the risk of preterm birth and SGA during the preconception period and first and second trimester.ResultsWe found a small increase in risk of SGA associated with homicide exposure in the first trimester (0.14% [95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.01%, 0.30%]), but not for exposure during the preconception period (-0.01% [95% CI = -0.17%, 0.15%]) or the second trimester (-0.06% [95% CI = -0.23%, 0.11%]). Risk of preterm birth was not affected by homicide exposure. When women were exposed to homicides during all three exposure windows, there was a larger increase in risk of SGA (1.09% [95% CI = 0.15%, 2.03%]) but not preterm birth (0.14% [95% CI = -0.74%, 1.01%]). Exposure to three or more homicides was also associated with greater risk of SGA (0.78% [95% CI = 0.15%, 1.40%]). Negative controls indicated that residual confounding by temporal patterning was unlikely.ConclusionsHomicide exposure during early pregnancy is associated with a small increased risk of SGA.

Police use of force is an important public health issue in the US. Recent high-profile incidents suggest a potential link between mental disorders and police use of force, however little research has examined their co-occurrence in the general population. We aimed to assess the overall association between specific mental and substance use disorders (MSUDs) and nonfatal legal intervention injury. We identified nonfatal legal intervention injury cases (n = 90,099) and MSUD diagnoses from all hospital and emergency department (ED) records in California between 2005 and 2014. Age-, sex-, and race-standardized MSUD prevalence estimates among legal intervention injury cases, stratified by inpatient status, were compared to general US population-based estimates from the National Comorbidity Survey Replication. Compared to the general US population, nonaffective psychoses, mood disorders, alcohol use disorders, and drug use disorders were substantially overrepresented among inpatient legal intervention injuries (prevalence difference [PD]: 19.2%, (95% confidence interval [CI]: 18.0, 20.4); PD: 15.3%, (95% CI: 13.9, 16.7); PD: 21.1%, (95% CI: 19.8, 22.4); PD: 29.7%, (95% CI: 28.4, 31.0), respectively). Associations for all except mood disorders were similar but attenuated among ED injury cases. In contrast, anxiety disorders were underrepresented in both inpatient and ED injury cases. Results for mood disorders and suicidal ideation were mixed. In summary, MSUDs characterized by more overt behavioral symptoms were substantially overrepresented among legal intervention injury cases. Findings support the potential importance of interventions to improve treatment and law enforcement recognition of such disorders. Additional research should disentangle the complex relationship between MSUDs and legal intervention injury.

BackgroundIntimate partner violence (IPV) is a human rights violation and is associated with a variety of adverse physical and mental health outcomes. Collective efficacy, defined as mutual trust among community members and willingness to intervene on the behalf of the common good, has been associated with reduced neighbourhood violence. Limited research has explored whether community collective efficacy is associated with reduced incidence of IPV. This is of particular interest among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in sub-Saharan Africa, where the burden of HIV is greatest and IPV is common.MethodsWe collected longitudinal data among 2533 AGYW (ages 13-20) enrolled in the HPTN 068 cohort in Mpumalanga province, South Africa between 2011 and 2016. We included participants from 26 villages where community surveys were collected during the HPTN 068 study. Collective efficacy was measured at the village level via two population-based cross-sectional surveys in 2012 and 2014. Multivariable Poisson generalised estimating equation regression models estimated the relative risk ratio (RR) between village collective efficacy scores and subsequent physical IPV 12 month incidence, adjusting for village-level clustering and covariates.ResultsThirty-eight per cent of the cohort (n=950) reported at least one episode of recent physical IPV during follow-up. For every SD higher level of collective efficacy, there was a 6% lower level of physical IPV incidence (adjusted RR: 0.94; 95% CI 0.89 to 0.98) among AGYW after adjusting for covariates.ConclusionsCommunity-level interventions that foster the development of collective efficacy may reduce IPV among AGYW.

IntroductionAdolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in South Africa bear a disproportionate burden of HIV. Community mobilization (CM), defined as community members taking collective action to achieve a common goal related to health, equity and rights, has been associated with increased HIV testing and condom use and has been called a 'critical enabler' for addressing the HIV epidemic. However, limited research has examined whether CM is associated with HIV incidence among AGYW.MethodsWe examine the association of CM with incident HIV among AGYW (ages 13 to 21) enrolled in the HPTN 068 cohort in the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System, South Africa. This analysis includes 2292 participants residing in 26 villages where cross-sectional, population-based surveys were conducted to measure CM among 18- to 35-year-old residents in 2012 and 2014. HPTN 068 participants completed up to five annual visits that included an HIV test (2011 to 2016). Household-level data were collected from AGYW parents/guardians and census data is updated annually. Mean village-level CM scores were created using a validated community mobilization measure with seven components (social cohesion, social control, critical consciousness, shared concerns, organizations and networks, leadership and collective action). We used pooled generalized estimating equation regression with a Poisson distribution to estimate risk ratios (RR) for the association of village-level CM score and CM components with incident HIV infection, accounting for village-level clustering and adjusting for key covariates.ResultsThere were 194 incident infections over the follow-up period. For every additional standard deviation of village-level CM there was 12% lower HIV incidence (RR: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.79, 0.98) after adjusting for individual, household and community characteristics. CM components associated with lower HIV incidence included critical consciousness (RR: 0.88; CI: 0.79, 0.97) and leadership (RR: 0.87; CI: 0.79, 0.95); while not statistically significant, social cohesion (RR: 0.91; CI: 0.81, 1.01), shared concerns (RR: 0.90; CI: 0.81, 1.00), and organizations and networks (RR: 0.91; CI: 0.79, 1.03) may also play a protective role.ConclusionsThese results suggest that having strong community social resources will reduce AGYW's risk of HIV acquisition. Work to mobilize communities, focusing on building social cohesion, shared concerns, critical consciousness, and effective and accountable leadership, can fortify prevention programming for AGYW.

BackgroundSelf-harm is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. Exposure to community violence is an important and potentially modifiable feature of the social environment that may affect self-harm, but studies to date are limited in the samples and outcomes examined.MethodsWe conducted a population-based, nested case-control study. Cases were all deaths and hospital visits due to self-harm in California, 2006-2013. We frequency-matched California resident population-based controls from the American Community Survey to cases on age, gender, race/ethnicity, and year of survey/injury. We assessed past-year community violence using deaths and hospital visits due to interpersonal violence in the community of residence. We estimated risk difference parameters that were defined to avoid extrapolation and to capture associations between changes in the distribution of community violence and the population-level risk of self-harm.ResultsAfter adjustment for confounders, setting past-year community violence to the lowest monthly levels observed within each community over the study period was associated with a 30.1 (95% confidence interval = 29.6, 30.5) per 100,000 persons per year lower risk of nonfatal self-harm but no difference in the risk of fatal self-harm. Associations for a parameter corresponding to a hypothetical violence prevention intervention targeting high-violence communities indicated a 5% decrease in nonfatal self-harm at the population level. In sensitivity analyses, results were robust.ConclusionsThis study strengthens evidence on the relationship between community violence and self-harm. Future research should investigate reasons for differential associations by age and gender and whether community violence prevention programs have meaningful impacts on self-harm.

BackgroundEvidence suggests that aspects of the neighborhood environment may influence risk of problematic drug use among adolescents. Our objective was to examine mediating roles of aspects of the school and peer environments on the effect of receiving a Section 8 housing voucher and using it to move out of public housing on adolescent substance use outcomes.MethodsWe used data from the Moving to Opportunity (MTO) experiment that randomized receipt of a Section 8 housing voucher. Hypothesized mediators included school climate, safety, peer drug use, and participation in an after-school sport or club. We applied a doubly robust, semiparametric estimator to longitudinal MTO data to estimate stochastic direct and indirect effects of randomization on cigarette use, marijuana use, and problematic drug use. Stochastic direct and indirect effects differ from natural direct and indirect effects in that they do not require assuming no posttreatment confounder of the mediator-outcome relationship. Such an assumption would be at odds with any causal model that reflects an intervention affecting a mediator and outcome through adherence to treatment assignment.ResultsHaving friends who use drugs and involvement in after-school sports or clubs partially mediated the effect of housing voucher receipt on adolescent substance use (e.g., stochastic indirect effect 0.45% [95% confidence interval: 0.12%, 0.79%] for having friends who use drugs and 0.04% [95% confidence interval: -0.02%, 0.10%] for involvement in after-school sports or clubs mediating the relationship between housing voucher receipt and marijuana use among boys). However, these mediating effects were small, contributing only fractions of a percent to the effect of voucher receipt on probability of substance use. No school environment variables were mediators.ConclusionsMeasured school- and peer-environment variables played little role in mediating the effect of housing voucher receipt on subsequent adolescent substance use.

BackgroundGun shows are an important source of firearms, but no adequately powered studies have examined whether they are associated with increases in firearm injuries.ObjectiveTo determine whether gun shows are associated with short-term increases in local firearm injuries and whether this association differs by the state in which the gun show is held.DesignQuasi-experimental.SettingCalifornia.ParticipantsPersons in California within driving distance of gun shows.MeasurementsGun shows in California and Nevada between 2005 and 2013 (n = 915 shows) and rates of firearm-related deaths, emergency department visits, and inpatient hospitalizations in California.ResultsCompared with the 2 weeks before, postshow firearm injury rates remained stable in regions near California gun shows but increased from 0.67 injuries (95% CI, 0.55 to 0.80 injuries) to 1.14 injuries (CI, 0.97 to 1.30 injuries) per 100 000 persons in regions near Nevada shows. After adjustment for seasonality and clustering, California shows were not associated with increases in local firearm injuries (rate ratio [RR], 0.99 [CI, 0.97 to 1.02]) but Nevada shows were associated with increased injuries in California (RR, 1.69 [CI, 1.16 to 2.45]). The pre-post difference was significantly higher for Nevada shows than California shows (ratio of RRs, 1.70 [CI, 1.17 to 2.47]). The Nevada association was driven by significant increases in firearm injuries from interpersonal violence (RR, 2.23 [CI, 1.01 to 4.89]) but corresponded to a small increase in absolute numbers. Nonfirearm injuries served as a negative control and were not associated with California or Nevada gun shows. Results were robust to sensitivity analyses.LimitationFirearm injuries were examined only in California, and gun show occurrence was not randomized.ConclusionGun shows in Nevada, but not California, were associated with local, short-term increases in firearm injuries in California. Differing associations for California versus Nevada gun shows may be due to California's stricter firearm regulations.Primary funding sourceNational Institutes of Health; University of California, Berkeley; and Heising-Simons Foundation.

Objective: To investigate Covid‐19 vaccination as a potential secondary public health benefit of case management for Medicaid beneficiaries with health and social needs. Data Sources and Study Setting: The CommunityConnect case management program for Medicaid beneficiaries is run by Contra Costa Health, a county safety net health system in California. Program enrollment data were merged with comprehensive county vaccination records. Study Design: Individuals with elevated risk of hospital and emergency department use were randomized each month to a case management intervention or usual care. Interdisciplinary case managers offered coaching, community referrals, healthcare connections, and other support based on enrollee interest and need. Using survival analysis with intent‐to‐treat assignment, we assessed rates of first‐dose Covid‐19 vaccination from December 2020 to September 2021. In exploratory sub‐analyses we also examined effect heterogeneity by gender, race/ethnicity, age, and primary language. Data Collection and Extraction Methods: Data were extracted from county and program records as of September 2021, totaling 12,866 interventions and 25,761 control enrollments. Principal Findings: Approximately 58% of enrollees were female and 41% were under age 35. Enrollees were 23% White, 12% Asian/Pacific Islander, 20% Black/African American, and 36% Hispanic/Latino, and 10% other/unknown. Approximately 35% of the intervention group engaged with their case manager. Approximately 56% of all intervention and control enrollees were vaccinated after 9 months of analysis time. Intervention enrollees had a higher vaccination rate compared to control enrollees (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02–1.10). In sub‐analyses, the intervention was associated with stronger likelihood of vaccination among males and individuals under age 35. Conclusions: Case management infrastructure modestly improved Covid‐19 vaccine uptake in a population of Medicaid beneficiaries that over‐represents social groups with barriers to early Covid‐19 vaccination. Amidst mixed evidence on vaccination‐specific incentives, leveraging trusted case managers and existing case management programs may be a valuable prevention strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies have found a stronger association between anger and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) severity in military populations than in nonmilitary populations. Two hypotheses have been proposed to explain this difference: Military populations are more prone to anger than nonmilitary populations, and traumas experienced on deployment create more anger than nondeployment traumas. To examine these hypotheses, we evaluated the association between anger and PTSD severity among never-deployed military service members with nondeployment traumas (n = 226) and deployed service members with deployment traumas (n = 594) using linear regression. We further examined these associations stratified by gender. Bivariate associations between anger and PTSD severity were similar for nondeployment and deployment events; however, gender modified this association. For men, the association for deployment events was stronger than for nondeployment events (β = .18, r = .53 vs. β = .16, r = .37, respectively), whereas the reverse was true for women (deployment: β = .20, r = .42 vs. nondeployment: β = .25, r = .65). Among men, findings supported the hypothesis that deployment traumas produce stronger associations between PTSD and anger and are inconsistent with hypothesized population differences. In women, however, there was not a clear fit with either hypothesis.

Afghanistan and Iraq veterans experienced traumas during deployment, and disrupted connections with friends and family. In this context, it is critical to understand the nature of veterans’ transition to civilian life, the challenges navigated, and approaches to reconnection. We investigated these issues in a qualitative study, framed by homecoming theory, that comprised in-depth interviews with 24 veterans. Using an inductive thematic analysis approach, we developed three overarching themes. Military as family explored how many veterans experienced the military environment as a “family” that took care of them and provided structure. Normal is alien encompassed many veterans experiences of disconnection from people at home, lack of support from institutions, lack of structure, and loss of purpose upon return to civilian life. Searching for a new normal included strategies and supports veterans found to reconnect in the face of these challenges. A veteran who had successfully transitioned and provided support and advice as a peer navigator was frequently discussed as a key resource. A minority of respondents—those who were mistreated by the military system, women veterans, and veterans recovering from substance abuse problems—were less able to access peer support. Other reconnection strategies included becoming an ambassador to the military experience, and knowing transition challenges would ease with time. Results were consistent with and are discussed in the context of homecoming theory and social climate theory. Social support is known to be protective for veterans, but our findings add the nuance of substantial obstacles veterans face in locating and accessing support, due to disconnection and unsupportive institutions. Larger scale work is needed to better understand how to foster peer connection, build reconnection with family, and engage the broader community to understand and support veterans; interventions to support reconnection for veterans should be developed.