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Traditional knowledge-based situation awareness (SA) modes struggle to adapt to the escalating complexity of today's Energy Internet of Things (EIoT), necessitating a pivotal paradigm shift. In response, this work introduces a pioneering data-driven SA framework, termed digital twin-based situation awareness (DT-SA), aiming to bridge existing gaps between data and demands, and further to enhance SA capabilities within the complex EIoT landscape. First, we redefine the concept of digital twin (DT) within the EIoT context, aligning it with data-intensive scientific discovery paradigm (the Fourth Paradigm) so as to waken EIoT's sleeping data; this contextual redefinition lays the cornerstone of our DT-SA framework for EIoT. Then, the framework is comprehensively explored through its four fundamental steps: digitalization, simulation, informatization, and intellectualization. These steps initiate a virtual ecosystem conducive to a continuously self-adaptive, self-learning, and self-evolving big model (BM), further contributing to the evolution and effectiveness of DT-SA in engineering. Our framework is characterized by the incorporation of system theory and Fourth Paradigm as guiding ideologies, DT as data engine, and BM as intelligence engine. This unique combination forms the backbone of our approach. This work extends beyond engineering, stepping into the domain of data science -- DT-SA not only enhances management practices for EIoT users/operators, but also propels advancements in pattern analysis and machine intelligence (PAMI) within the intricate fabric of a complex system. Numerous real-world cases validate our DT-SA framework., Comment: 16 pages, 15 figures Accepted by IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics: Systems

This study presents a formulation of the Superposition Theorem (ST) in the spectrum space, tailored for the analysis of composite events in an active distribution network (ADN). Our formulated ST enables a quantitative analysis on a composite event, uncovering the property of additivity among independent atom events in the spectrum space. This contribution is a significant addition to the existing literature and has profound implications in various application scenarios. To accomplish this, we leverage random matrix theory (RMT), specifically the asymptotic empirical spectral distribution, Stieltjes transform, and R transform. These mathematical tools establish a nonlinear, model-free, and unsupervised addition operation in the spectrum space. Comprehensive details, including a related roadmap,theorems, deductions, and proofs, are provided in this work. Case studies, utilizing field data, validate our newly derived ST formulation by demonstrating a remarkable performance. Our ST formulation is model-free, non-linear, non-supervised, theory-guided, and uncertainty-insensitive, making it a valuable asset in the realm of composite event analysis in ADN., Comment: 12 pages. Accepted by IEEE TPWRS

Under the global low-carbon target, the uneven spatiotemporal distribution of renewable energy resources exacerbates the uncertainty and seasonal power imbalance. Additionally, the issue of an incomplete hydrogen energy chain is widely overlooked in planning models, which hinders the complete analysis of the role of hydrogen in energy systems. Therefore, this paper proposes a high-resolution collaborative planning model for electricity-thermal-hydrogen-coupled energy systems considering both the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of renewable energy resources and the multi-scale bottom-to-top investment strategy for the complete hydrogen energy chain. Considering the high-resolution system operation flexibility, this paper proposes a hydrogen chain-based fast clustering optimization method that can handle high-dimensional data and multi-time scale operation characteristics. The model optimizes the geographical distribution and capacity configuration of the Northeast China energy system in 2050, with hourly operational characteristics. The planning optimization covered single-energy devices, multi-energy-coupled conversion devices, and electric-hydrogen transmission networks. Last but not least, this paper thoroughly examines the optimal portfolio selection of different hydrogen technologies based on the differences in cost, flexibility, and efficiency. In the Pareto analysis, the proposed model reduces CO2 emissions by 60% with a competitive cost. This paper provides a zero-carbon pathway for multi-energy systems with a cost 4% less than the social cost of carbon $44.6/ton, and the integration of the complete hydrogen energy chain reduces the renewable energy curtailment by 97.0%. Besides, the portfolio selection results indicate that the system favors the SOEC with the highest energy efficiency and the PEMFC with the fastest dynamic response when achieving zero-carbon emissions, Comment: 32 pages, 17 figures

Prediction intervals offer an effective tool for quantifying the uncertainty of loads in distribution systems. The traditional central PIs cannot adapt well to skewed distributions, and their offline training fashion is vulnerable to unforeseen changes in future load patterns. Therefore, we propose an optimal PI estimation approach, which is online and adaptive to different data distributions by adaptively determining symmetric or asymmetric probability proportion pairs for quantiles. It relies on the online learning ability of reinforcement learning to integrate the two online tasks, i.e., the adaptive selection of probability proportion pairs and quantile predictions, both of which are modeled by neural networks. As such, the quality of quantiles-formed PI can guide the selection process of optimal probability proportion pairs, which forms a closed loop to improve the quality of PIs. Furthermore, to improve the learning efficiency of quantile forecasts, a prioritized experience replay strategy is proposed for online quantile regression processes. Case studies on both load and net load demonstrate that the proposed method can better adapt to data distribution compared with online central PIs method. Compared with offline-trained methods, it obtains PIs with better quality and is more robust against concept drift., Comment: revision to IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid

Topology identification (TI) is a key task for state estimation (SE) in distribution grids, especially the one with high-penetration renewables. The uncertainties, initiated by the time-series behavior of renewables, will almost certainly lead to bad TI results without a proper treatment. These uncertainties are analytically intractable under conventional framework-they are usually jointly spatial-temporal dependent, and hence cannot be simply treated as white noise. For this purpose, a hybrid framework is suggested in this paper to handle these uncertainties in a systematic and theoretical way; in particular, big data analytics are studied to harness the jointly spatial-temporal statistical properties of those uncertainties. With some prior knowledge, a model bank is built first to store the countable typical models of network configurations; therefore, the difference between the SE outputs of each bank model and our observation is capable of being defined as a matrix variate-the so-called random matrix. In order to gain insight into the random matrix, a well-designed metric space is needed. Auto-regression (AR) model, factor analysis (FA), and random matrix theory (RMT) are tied together for the metric space design, followed by jointly temporal-spatial analysis of those matrices which is conducted in a high-dimensional (vector) space. Under the proposed framework, some big data analytics and theoretical results are obtained to improve the TI performance. Our framework is validated using IEEE standard distribution network with some field data in practice., Comment: 11 pages

Digital twin (DT) is one of the most promising enabling technologies for realizing smart grids. Characterized by seamless and active---data-driven, real-time, and closed-loop---integration between digital and physical spaces, a DT is much more than a blueprint, simulation tool, or cyber-physical system (CPS). Numerous state-of-the-art technologies such as internet of things (IoT), 5G, big data, and artificial intelligence (AI) serve as a basis for DT. DT for power systems aims at situation awareness and virtual test to assist the decision-making on power grid operation and management under normal or urgent conditions. This paper, from both science paradigms and engineering practice, outlines the backgrounds, challenges, framework, tools, and possible directions of DT as a preliminary exploration. To our best knowledge, it is also the first exploration on DT in the context of power systems. Starting from the fundamental and most frequently used power flow (PF) analysis, some typical application scenarios are presented. Our work is expected to contribute some novel discoveries, as well as some high-dimensional analytics, to the engineering community. Besides, the connection of DT with big data analytics and AI may has deep impact on data science., Comment: 8 pages. Submitted to IEEE Transactions on Industrial Informaticss

The Jacobian matrix is the core part of power flow analysis, which is the basis for power system planning and operations. This paper estimates the Jacobian matrix in high dimensional space. Firstly, theoretical analysis and model-based calculation of the Jacobian matrix are introduced to obtain the benchmark value. Then, the estimation algorithms based on least-squared errors and the deviation estimation based on the neural network are studied in detail, including the theories, equations, derivations, codes, advantages and disadvantages, and application scenes. The proposed algorithms are data-driven and sensitive to up-to-date topology parameters and state variables. The efforts are validate by comparing the results to benchmark values., Comment: submitted to IEEE

Invisible units mainly refer to small-scale units that are not monitored by, and thus are not visible to utilities. Integration of these invisible units into power systems does significantly affect the way in which a distribution grid is planned and operated. This paper, based on random matrix theory (RMT), proposes a statistical, data-driven framework to handle the massive grid data, in contrast to its deterministic, model-based counterpart. Combining the RMT-based data-mining framework with conventional techniques, some heuristics are derived as the solution to the invisible units detection and estimation task: linear eigenvalue statistic indicators (LESs) are suggested as the main ingredients of the solution; according to the statistical properties of LESs, the hypothesis testing is formulated to conduct change point detection in the high-dimensional space. The proposed method is promising for anomaly detection and pertinent to current distribution networks-it is capable of detecting invisible power usage and fraudulent behavior while even being able to locate the suspect's location. Case studies, using both simulated data and actual data, validate the proposed method., Comment: 10 pages

Data-driven approaches, when tasked with situation awareness, are suitable for complex grids with massive datasets. It is a challenge, however, to efficiently turn these massive datasets into useful big data analytics. To address such a challenge, this paper, based on random matrix theory (RMT), proposes a datadriven approach. The approach models massive datasets as large random matrices; it is model-free and requiring no knowledge about physical model parameters. In particular, the large data dimension N and the large time span T, from the spatial aspect and the temporal aspect respectively, lead to favorable results. The beautiful thing lies in that these linear eigenvalue statistics (LESs) built from data matrices follow Gaussian distributions for very general conditions, due to the latest breakthroughs in probability on the central limit theorems of those LESs. Numerous case studies, with both simulated data and field data, are given to validate the proposed new algorithms., Comment: 10 pages, 14 figures, 2 tables, Submit to IEEE Access. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses

Future power grids are fundamentally different from current ones, both in size and in complexity; this trend imposes challenges for situation awareness (SA) based on classical indicators, which are usually model-based and deterministic. As an alternative, this paper proposes a statistical indicator system based on linear eigenvalue statistics (LESs) of large random matrices: 1) from a data modeling viewpoint, we build, starting from power flows equations, the random matrix models (RMMs) only using the real-time data flow in a statistical manner; 2) for a data analysis that is fully driven from RMMs, we put forward the high-dimensional indicators, called LESs that have some unique statistical features such as Gaussian properties; and 3) we develop a three-dimensional (3D) power-map to visualize the system, respectively, from a high-dimensional viewpoint and a low-dimensional one. Therefore, a statistical methodology of SA is employed; it conducts SA with a model-free and data-driven procedure, requiring no knowledge of system topologies, units operation/control models, causal relationship, etc. This methodology has numerous advantages, such as sensitivity, universality, speed, and flexibility. In particular, its robustness against bad data is highlighted, with potential advantages in cyber security. The theory of big data based stability for on-line operations may prove feasible along with this line of work, although this critical development will be reported elsewhere., Comment: 8 pages, 8 figures, 3 tables

The operating status of power systems is influenced by growing varieties of factors, resulting from the developing sizes and complexity of power systems; in this situation, the modelbased methods need be revisited. A data-driven method, as the novel alternative, on the other hand, is proposed in this paper: it reveals the correlations between the factors and the system status through statistical properties of data. An augmented matrix, as the data source, is the key trick for this method; it is formulated by two parts: 1) status data as the basic part, and 2) factor data as the augmented part. The random matrix theory (RMT) is applied as the mathematical framework. The linear eigenvalue statistics (LESs), such as the mean spectral radius (MSR), are defined to study data correlations through large random matrices. Compared with model-based methods, the proposed method is inspired by a pure statistical approach, without a prior knowledge of operation and interaction mechanism models for power systems and factors. In general, this method is direct in analysis, robust against bad data, universal to various factors, and applicable for real-time analysis. A case study, based on the standard IEEE 118-bus system, validates the proposed method., Comment: 9 pages, 9 figures, Accepted by IEEE Trans on Smart Grid

Data with features of volume, velocity, variety, and veracity are challenging traditional tools to extract useful analysis for decision-making. By integrating high-dimensional analysis with visualization, this paper develops a 3D power-map animation as an effective solution to the challenge. An architecture design, with detailed data processing procedure, is proposed to realize the integration. Two of the most important components in the architecture are presented: the Single-Ring Law for random matrices as solid mathematic foundation, and the proposed statistical index MSR as high-dimensional data for visualization. The whole procedure is easy in logic, fast in speed, objective and even robust against bad data. Moreover, it is an unsupervised machine learning mechanism directly oriented to the raw data rather than logics or models based on simplifications and assumptions. A case study validates the effectiveness and performance of the developed 3D power-map in analysis extraction., Comment: 5 pages, 7 figures, submitted to PESGM 2015. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1502.00060

Power systems are developing very fast nowadays, both in size and in complexity; this situation is a challenge for Early Event Detection (EED). This paper proposes a data- driven unsupervised learning method to handle this challenge. Specifically, the random matrix theories (RMTs) are introduced as the statistical foundations for random matrix models (RMMs); based on the RMMs, linear eigenvalue statistics (LESs) are defined via the test functions as the system indicators. By comparing the values of the LES between the experimental and the theoretical ones, the anomaly detection is conducted. Furthermore, we develop 3D power-map to visualize the LES; it provides a robust auxiliary decision-making mechanism to the operators. In this sense, the proposed method conducts EED with a pure statistical procedure, requiring no knowledge of system topologies, unit operation/control models, etc. The LES, as a key ingredient during this procedure, is a high dimensional indictor derived directly from raw data. As an unsupervised learning indicator, the LES is much more sensitive than the low dimensional indictors obtained from supervised learning. With the statistical procedure, the proposed method is universal and fast; moreover, it is robust against traditional EED challenges (such as error accumulations, spurious correlations, and even bad data in core area). Case studies, with both simulated data and real ones, validate the proposed method. To manage large-scale distributed systems, data fusion is mentioned as another data processing ingredient., Comment: 12 pages, 11 figures, submitted to IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid