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1. Reducing loneliness and depressive symptoms in older adults during the COVID-19 pandemic: A pre-post evaluation of a psychosocial online intervention.

Author

Aina Gabarrell-Pascuet, Laura Coll-Planas, Sergi Blancafort Alias, Regina Martínez Pascual, Josep Maria Haro, and Joan Domènech-Abella

Subjects
Medicine, Science
Abstract

BackgroundLoneliness is related to worse mental health, particularly in people with poor social support. The COVID-19 pandemic altered our lives and ways of social interaction, especially among vulnerable populations such as older adults.MethodsWe designed a group-based psychosocial online intervention for older adults (≥ 65 years) facilitated by gerontologists addressing loneliness consisting of: (i) sharing experiences and promoting peer support to overcome feelings of loneliness and (ii) increasing the chances of establishing successful social relationships. This was a feasibility non-controlled prospective pilot study carried out during the COVID-19 pandemic with a pre-post evaluation. Interviews before and after the intervention assessed loneliness (emotional and social), social support, depressive and anxiety symptoms, quality of life, and perceived health. Groups of 6-8 participants and 2 facilitators met once a week for 8 weeks through videoconferencing. The intervention effectiveness was assessed with multilevel models for repeated measures.ResultsThe study sample (N = 27) was mainly composed of females (74%) and the mean age was 74.26 years. 21 participants completed the intervention (22% drop-out rate). Statistically significant (pConclusionsInterventions overcoming social distancing restrictions through online tools and targeting vulnerable population sectors (e.g., older adults) can become essential to lessen the collateral consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on social behaviour and mental health.

Published
2024
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2. The impact of COVID-related perceived stress and social support on generalized anxiety and major depressive disorders: moderating effects of pre-pandemic mental disorders

Author

Anna Monistrol-Mula, Mireia Felez-Nobrega, Joan Domènech-Abella, Philippe Mortier, Paula Cristóbal-Narváez, Gemma Vilagut, Beatriz Olaya, Montse Ferrer, Aina Gabarrell-Pascuet, Jordi Alonso, and Josep Maria Haro

Subjects
Affective disorders, SARS-Cov2, Psychiatric disorders, COVID-stress syndrome, Social determinants, Psychiatry, RC435-571
Abstract

Abstract Background We assessed the moderating effect of pre-pandemic mental disorders on the association of COVID-related perceived stress and social support with mental health. Methods A nationally representative sample of 3500 Spanish adults was interviewed in June 2020 (mean age 49.25 years, ± 15.64; 51.50% females). Mental health included Generalized Anxiety Disorders (GAD; GAD-7, cut-off point of ≥ 10), Major Depressive Disorders (MDD; PHQ-8, cut-off point of ≥ 10) and the comorbid form (those screening positive for GAD and MDD). COVID-related stress was assessed using an adapted version of the Peri Life Events Scale, and social support using the Oslo Social Support Scale. Logistic regression models were used to assess if COVID-related stress and social support were related to mental health outcomes and interactions were conducted to examine whether these relationships differed according to the presence of pre-pandemic mental disorders. Results Higher COVID-related stress was associated with a higher risk of lower mental health. The association between COVID-related stress with GAD and MDD was significantly moderated by pre-pandemic mental disorders, except for comorbid GAD + MDD. Higher levels of social support were linked to better mental health. Only the association between social support and GAD was significantly moderated by pre-pandemic mental disorders. That is, for those without pre-pandemic mental disorders, higher levels of social support decreased the odds of GAD, while minor decreases were observed in those with pre-pandemic mental disorders. Conclusions The impact of COVID-related stress and social support on specific indicators of mental health may vary depending on the existence of a previous mental disorder.

Published
2022
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4. The Association of Grief with Mental Health and the Role of Loneliness During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author

Laia Benítez-Manzanas, Guillem Feixas, Aina Gabarrell-Pascuet, Joan Domènech-Abella, Philippe Mortier, Gemma Vilagut, Josep Maria Haro, and Jordi Alonso

Subjects
General Medicine
Abstract

Previous research found that bereavement is associated with several pathological responses affecting both physical and mental health. During the COVID-19 pandemic and the socially disruptive measures implemented, losses of close contacts have occurred under exceptional circumstances, and it is reasonable to expect that many bereaved people would be unable to overcome their loss adaptively, resulting in dysfunctional grief leading to mental health alterations. Loneliness, which has increased during the pandemic, has been identified as a significant risk factor for mental health that is common when people grieve. In this study, we aimed to gauge the effects of bereavement on mental health in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and to explore the mediating role of loneliness on the relationship between grief and mental health alterations by surveying a representative sample of 2000 Spanish adults interviewed by phone during the pandemic (February-March 2021). Logistic regressions were performed to examine the effects of grief levels on depression, anxiety, panic attacks, post-traumatic stress disorder, substance abuse, and suicidal thoughts and behaviors. Our results confirmed that how the loss of a loved one is processed is associated with the development of mental health conditions. Dysfunctional grief was significantly associated with all mental health conditions, particularly depression (OR = 14.28) and anxiety (OR = 11.61). As predicted, loneliness accounted for a substantial percentage (8-30%) of the impact of grief on mental health outcomes.

Published
2022
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5. Translation and transcultural adaptation of the Migrasalud questionnaire for the assessment of mental health and well-being in the migratory process

Author

Blanca Mellor-Marsá, Marta Franch-Roca, Fajar Matloob Ahmed Butt, Rachid El Hafi Elmokhtari, Felipe Villalobos, Yuelu He, Wafae Moussaoui Rahhab, Shazra Javed Qureshi, Misbah Yousaf Begum, Iris Andrea González Schiller, Sergio Salinas González, Ivet Bayes-Marin, Aina Gabarrell-Pascuet, Mª Carmen Alós-Belenguer, Amanda Lloret-Pineda, Wala Ayad-Ahmed, Helena Sainz-Elías, María Roura-Adserias, Gema Fariñas Lopez, Elisabet Salomon-Mallat, Yolanda Osorio López, Mercedes Espinal Cabeza, Lola Aparicio Pareja, Óscar D Alvarez Bobo, Josep Maria Haro, and Paula Cristóbal-Narváez

Abstract

Background: The aim of the present study was to follow different language adaptation steps towards conceptual equivalence to guarantee the cross-cultural applicability of an instrument that explored the relationship between migration, and mental health barriers and protective factors. The procedures followed during the process may provide practical guidance for intercultural research designs. Methods: A translation protocol based on a cross-cultural study aiming (+18) migrants who arrived in Barcelona in the last 5 years –most frequently Pakistani, Arabic, Chinese, English but also Latino or Spanish-speaking communities- was developed consisting on four stages -1) translation; 2) back-translation; 3) synthesis and 4) pre-testing- and applied to individuals in a sample representative of the 5 target languages-. Team-based translation experts, multicultural translators and a systematically constructed method for translation and back-translation from source and target languages where some of the strategies for transparency and reproducibility of scientific methods. Discussion: The present work implied the translation and back-translation of the instrument and was comprehensively conducted to achieve concept equivalence between the original questionnaire version with the translated version in detecting mental health deterioration or empowerment in the context of international migration. Trial registration: not applicable

Published
2022
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6. The Association Between Substance Use Disorder and Depression During the COVID-19 Lockdown in Spain and the Moderating Role of Social Support: a Cross-Sectional Study

Author

Philippe Mortier, Beatriz Olaya, Paula Cristóbal-Narváez, Mireia Felez-Nobrega, Lydia Hanaa Faris, Jordi Alonso, Gemma Vilagut, Josep Maria Haro, Raquel López-Carrilero, Joan Domènech-Abella, and Aina Gabarrell-Pascuet

Subjects
Cross-sectional study, business.industry, Depressive symptoms, Major depressive disorder, Substance use disorder, medicine.disease, Social support, Substance abuse, Patient Health Questionnaire, Psychiatry and Mental health, Health psychology, COVID-19 lockdown, Spain, medicine, Original Article, Risk factor, business, Depression (differential diagnoses), Clinical psychology
Abstract

Substance use disorder is on the rise; it has increased massively during the COVID-19 lockdown and has been found as a risk factor for depressive symptoms and major depressive disorder. Less is known about the hypothetical moderating effect of social support in that association. Three thousand five hundred Spanish adults were interviewed by phone during the COVID-19 lockdown (May–June 2020). The 8-item Patient Health Questionnaire Depression Scale (PHQ-8) was used to measure the symptoms of depression. The CAGE Adapted to Include Drugs (CAGE-AID) questionnaire was used to assess substance use disorder during the previous month. Social support was measured through the Oslo Social Support Scale (OSSS-3). Regression models were constructed to assess factors related to depressive symptoms. People with substance use disorder (alcohol and drugs) showed considerable high levels of depressive symptoms, particularly among those with low levels of social support, which reported levels above major depressive disorder cut-off.

Published
2021
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7. The association of detachment with affective disorder symptoms during the COVID-19 lockdown: The role of living situation and social support

Author

Joan Domènech-Abella, Lydia Hanaa Faris, Gemma Vilagut, Aina Gabarrell-Pascuet, Josep Maria Haro, Jordi Alonso, Mireia Felez-Nobrega, Beatriz Olaya, Paula Cristóbal-Narváez, and Philippe Mortier

Subjects
Adult, Detachment, media_common.quotation_subject, Psychological intervention, Anxiety, Social networks, 03 medical and health sciences, Social support, 0302 clinical medicine, Lockdown, medicine, Humans, Association (psychology), Depression (differential diagnoses), media_common, Depressive Disorder, Depression, SARS-CoV-2, Social distance, COVID-19, Social Support, Mental health, 030227 psychiatry, Psychiatry and Mental health, Clinical Psychology, Feeling, Communicable Disease Control, medicine.symptom, Psychology, 030217 neurology & neurosurgery, Research Paper, Clinical psychology
Abstract

INTRODUCTION: There is growing concern about the effect of lockdown and social distancing on mental health. Subjective feelings related to social relationships such as detachment have shown a strong effect on mental health, whereas objective factors might have a moderating role in that association. OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether social support and living situation have a moderating effect on the association between detachment and affective disorder symptoms during the COVID-19 lockdown. METHODS: 3,305 Spanish adults were interviewed by phone at the end of the COVID-19 lockdown (May-June 2020). Detachment during confinement was assessed with a single-item frequency question. Anxiety symptoms were measured through GAD-7, depressive symptoms through PHQ-9, and social support through the Oslo Social Support Scale (OSSS). Associations with anxiety and depressive symptoms were tested through Tobit regression models. Interactions of detachment with living situation and social support were tested as independent variables. RESULTS: People living alone showed significantly lower levels of anxiety whereas people living with another (but not as a couple) showed higher levels of depression. Detachment was strongly associated with both affective disorders. Social support had a statistically significant moderating effect on that association. Those with a low level of social support and a high level of detachment reported means of depression and anxiety above major depression (10.5 CI 95% 9.6, 11.4 at OSSS=10) and generalized anxiety disorders (10.1 CI 95% 9.2, 11.0 at OSSS=9) cut offs CONCLUSION: Interventions centered on improving social support could alleviate feelings of detachment and prevent affective disorders during lockdowns.

Published
2021
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8. The role of social support, detachment, and depressive and anxiety symptoms in suicidal thoughts and behaviours during the Covid-19 lockdown: Potential pathways

Author

Aina Gabarrell-Pascuet, Mireia Felez-Nobrega, Josep Maria Haro, Gemma Vilagut, Joan Domènech-Abella, Philippe Mortier, Beatriz Olaya, Jordi Alonso, and Paula Cristóbal-Narváez

Subjects
Mediation (statistics), Social network, Detachment, business.industry, media_common.quotation_subject, Depressive symptoms, Psychological intervention, COVID-19, Logistic regression, Mental health, Article, Social support, Suicide, Feeling, Anxiety symptoms, medicine, Anxiety, medicine.symptom, business, Psychology, General Psychology, Clinical psychology, media_common
Abstract

During the COVID-19 pandemic, anxiety and depressive symptoms, as well as problems related to social relationships, such as available social support and feelings of detachment from others, have worsened. These factors are strongly associated with suicidal thoughts and behaviours (STB). The effects of feelings of detachment on mental health and on STB have been scarcely studied, together with the relation that it may have with available social support. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to assess potential pathways connecting these conditions. A nationally representative sample of Spanish adults (N = 3305) was interviewed during the COVID-19 pandemic (June 2020). STB, social support, and depressive and anxiety symptoms were measured with the C-SSRS (modified version), OSSS-3, PHQ-8, and GAD-7 scales, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression models and mediation analyses were performed. Social support and some of its components (i.e., social network size and relations of reciprocity) were associated with lower odds of STB. Detachment significantly mediated (22% to 25%) these associations. Symptoms of emotional disorders significantly mediated the association between social support components (29% to 38%) – but not neighbourhood support – with STB, as well as the association between detachment and higher odds of STB (47% to 57%). In both cases, depressive symptoms were slightly stronger mediating factors when compared to anxiety symptoms. Our findings suggest that interventions aimed at lowering depressive and anxiety symptoms, and STB should provide social support and help tackle the feeling of detachment in a complementary way.

Published
2021
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9. The Association of Age With Depression, Anxiety, and Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Spain: The Role of Loneliness and Prepandemic Mental Disorder

Author

Aina Gabarrell-Pascuet, Ai Koyanagi, Mireia Felez-Nobrega, Paula Cristóbal-Narváez, Philippe Mortier, Gemma Vilagut, Beatriz Olaya, Jordi Alonso, Josep Maria Haro, and Joan Domènech-Abella

Subjects
COVID-19 = coronavirus disease 2019, GAD = generalized anxiety disorder, Depression, Loneliness, Posttraumatic stress disorder, COVID-19, Major depressive disorder, Anxiety, PCL5 = PTSD Checklist for DSM-5, Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic, Psychiatry and Mental health, Age, Generalized anxiety disorder, Cross-Sectional Studies, Spain, PHQ = Patient Health Questionnaire Depression Scale, Humans, PTSD = posttraumatic stress disorder, MDD = major depressive disorder, Pandemics, Applied Psychology, Aged
Abstract

Objective: Older adults may be at lower risk of common mental disorders than younger adults during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Previous research has shown shown differences by age in psychosocial well-being during the pandemic and have highlighted the moderating effect of prepandemic mental disorders on that association. In this line, we examined the association of age with self-reported symptoms of loneliness, depression, anxiety, and posttraumatic stress, as well as potential roles of loneliness symptoms and prepandemic mental disorders on the association between age and mental disorder symptoms. Methods: Cross-sectional data of 2000 adults in Spain interviewed by telephone during the COVID-19 pandemic (February-March 2021) were analyzed. Depression, anxiety, and posttraumatic stress were measured with the eight-item Patient Health Questionnaire, the seven-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale, and the four-item checklist for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (Fifth Edition), respectively. Loneliness was measured with the three-item University of California at Los Angeles Loneliness Scale. Several regression models were constructed to assess factors related to loneliness and mental disorders. Results: According to cutoff points used, 12.4% of participants revealed depression, 11.9% revealed anxiety, and 11.6% revealed posttraumatic stress. Age was negatively related to mental disorder symptoms and loneliness. Loneliness was associated with higher levels of mental disorder symptoms. This association was stronger in younger adults without prepandemic mental disorders and in older adults with them. The association between age and loneliness was stronger in those with prepandemic mental disorders. Loneliness mediated the association of age with mental disorder symptoms. Conclusions: Interventions focused on loneliness could alleviate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mental health. This work was supported by the Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII), Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities, Government of Spain (MCIU), (grant number COV20/00711). Philippe Mortier has a Sara Borrell research contract awarded by the ISCIII (CD18/00049). Aina Gabarrell-Pascuet’s work is supported by the Secretariat of Universities and Research of the Generalitat de Catalunya and the European Social Fund (2021 FI_B 00839). Joan Domènech-Abella has a ‘Juan de la Cierva’ research contract awarded by the MCIU (FJC2019-038955-I). His work is also supported by the Centro de Investigación Biomédica Red de Salud Mental (CIBERSAM) and the PGC2018-094324-B-I00 research project, funded by the MCIU, the State Research Agency (AEI), and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF).

Published
2022

10. Factors Associated with Depression and Anxiety Symptoms among Migrant Population in Spain during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author

Ivet Bayes-Marin, Maria Roura-Adserias, Iago Giné-Vázquez, Felipe Villalobos, Marta Franch-Roca, Amanda Lloret-Pineda, Aina Gabarrell-Pascuet, Yuelu He, Rachid El Hafi, Fajar Matloob Ahmed Butt, Blanca Mellor-Marsá, M. Carmen Alós, Helena Sainz-Elías, Wala Ayad-Ahmed, Lola Aparicio, Mercedes Espinal Cabeza, Óscar Álvarez Bobo, Yolanda Osorio López, Josep Maria Haro, and Paula Cristóbal-Narváez

Subjects
Depression, Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis, migration, COVID-19, mental health, depression, anxiety, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Quality of Life, Humans, Anxiety, Pandemics
Abstract

Migrants are likely to experience mental health conditions, being one of the most vulnerable groups during the COVID-19 pandemic. The present study aims to: (1) estimate the prevalence of depressive and anxious symptoms and (2) examine the impact of risk and protective factors on this symptomatology. A sample of 129 migrants living in Spain during the COVID-19 pandemic completed an anonymous online survey, including information on sociodemographic and individual characteristics, migration, basic needs, social environment and perceived health domains. Multiple Poisson regression models analysed the effects of risk and protective factors on depression and anxiety symptoms. The prevalence of depressive and anxiety symptoms was 22.3% and 21.4%, respectively. Risk factors such as living in a rented house and previous mental health conditions were associated with higher depression symptoms, whereas unemployment was related to anxiety symptoms. Conversely, older age, better self-esteem, and higher levels of social support were associated with fewer depression symptoms. Older age and better quality of life were related to fewer anxiety symptoms. These findings addressing risk and protective factors (e.g., social support, self-esteem) help to design culturally effective programs, particularly in migrants with pre-existing mental health conditions, adjusting the organisation of mental healthcare services in difficult times in Spain.

Published
2022

11. The Association of Social Support and Loneliness with Symptoms of Depression, Anxiety, and Posttraumatic Stress during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Meta-Analysis

Author

Aina Gabarrell-Pascuet, Helena García-Mieres, Iago Giné-Vázquez, Maria Victoria Moneta, Ai Koyanagi, Josep Maria Haro, and Joan Domènech-Abella

Subjects
Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Abstract

Background: Research suggests that changes in social support and loneliness have affected mental disorder symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, there are a lack of studies comparing the robustness of these associations. Aims: The aims were to estimate the strength of the associations of loneliness and social support with symptoms of depression, anxiety, and posttraumatic stress during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2022) in the general population. Method: The method entailed a systematic review and random-effects meta-analysis of quantitative studies. Results: Seventy-three studies were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled correlations of the effect size of the association of loneliness with symptoms of depression, anxiety, and posttraumatic stress were 0.49, 0.40, and 0.38, respectively. The corresponding figures for social support were 0.29, 0.19, and 0.18, respectively. Subgroup analyses revealed that the strength of some associations could be influenced by the sociodemographic characteristics of the study samples, such as age, gender, region, and COVID-19 stringency index, and by methodological moderators, such as sample size, collection date, methodological quality, and the measurement scales. Conclusions: Social support had a weak association with mental disorder symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic while the association with loneliness was moderate. Strategies to address loneliness could be highly effective in reducing the impact of the pandemic on social relationships and mental health.

Published
2023
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13. The effect of loneliness and social support on the course of major depressive disorder among adults aged 50 years and older: A longitudinal study

Author

Aina Gabarrell‐Pascuet, María V. Moneta, José L. Ayuso‐Mateos, Marta Miret, Elvira Lara, Josep M. Haro, Beatriz Olaya, and Joan Domènech‐Abella

Subjects
Psychiatry and Mental health, Clinical Psychology, Depressive Disorder, Major, Depression, Loneliness, Humans, Social Support, Longitudinal Studies, Middle Aged, Aged
Abstract

Previous research indicates that social support, loneliness, and major depressive disorder (MDD) are interrelated. Little is known about the potential pathways among these factors, in particular in the case of adults aged 50 years and older and suffering from MDD. The objective was to investigate whether loneliness mediates the association between low social support and recurrent episodes of MDD.We used data from a cohort of the Spanish general population interviewed at three time-points over a 7-year period. We included 404 individuals aged 50+ suffering from MDD in the baseline assessment. A 12-month major depressive episode was assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) at each interview. The University of California, Los Angeles Loneliness Scale was used to measure loneliness, whereas social support was assessed through the Oslo Social Support Scale. We tested cross-lagged and autoregressive longitudinal associations using structural equation modeling.We identified two significant longitudinal mediation patterns: lower social support predicted higher subsequent levels of loneliness (Coef. = -0.16; p .05), which in turn predicted an increase in MDD recurrence (Coef. = 0.05; p .05).Interventions focused on promoting social support among older adults suffering from MDD may decrease feelings of loneliness and prevent recurrent episodes of MDD.

Published
2021

14. Development and validation of a prediction model for 30-day mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19: the COVID-19 SEIMC score

Author

Juan Salillas, Miguel Fernández Huerta, Patricio González-Pizarro, Francisco Javier Membrillo, Raul Galera, Jesús Rodríguez-Baño, Lydia Galvez, Juan Cuadros-González, Aina Gabarrell-Pascuet, Jorge Diaz-Garzon, INMA JARRIN, Claudia González-Rico, Alicia Rico Nieto, Cristina Cervera, Carlos Bea Serrano, Alberto Ouro Villasante, Guillermo Ruiz-Carrascoso, Beatriz Díaz-Pollán, María del mar Arcos Rueda, Julio Garcia-Rodriguez, BELEN GUTIÉRREZ-GUTIÉRREZ, MARCO ANTONIO SEMPERE ALCOCER, Cristina Verdú Sánchez, Lucía Hernández-Rivas, Guillermo Cuervo, Alejandro Smithson, Miguel Torralba, Iván Bloise, Alexander Rombauts, Carlos Toro, Lucio Jesus García-Fraile Fraile, Alejandro García-Ruiz de Morales, Cecilia Tortajada, KAPIL LAXMAN NANWANI NANWANI, Lorena De la Mora Cañizo, Laia Lorenzo-Esteller, Jorge Álvarez Troncoso, Cristina Roca Oporto, Alejandro Martin-Quiros, José A. Oteo, Eduardo Malmierca Corral, Stefan Stewart, Jerónimo Pachón, Almudena Gutiérrez-Arroyo, Moreno-Cuerda Victor, Carlos Carpio, Emilio Cendejas-Bueno, Pilar Fernandez-Calle, Antonio Javier Carcas Sansuán, Alexy Inciarte, Pablo Ryan, Luis Puente-Maestu, Jesús Troya García, Francisco de Asís Alcántara Nicolás, Gabriela Abelenda-Alonso, Natividad Benito, Daniel Prieto Arribas, Jesus Mingorance, Jose L Del Pozo, Jordi Carratala, Cristina Marcelo, Marta Ruiz-Algueró, Sarah CARO BRAGADO, Juan Berenguer, Vicens Diaz-Brito, Víctor Hontañón Antoñana, Julen Cadiñanos, Jose Arribas, María Jesús Jaras Hernández, Henar Calvo Sánchez, Elisa Cordero, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Fundación Seimc-Gesida, Plan Nacional de I+D+i (España), Ministerio de Ciencia y Universidades (España), Unión Europea. Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER/ERDF), Red de Investigación Cooperativa en Investigación en Sida (España), Red de Investigación Cooperativa en Investigación en Patología Infecciosa (España), Fundación SEIMC-GESIDA, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España), European Commission, Red Española de Investigación en SIDA, Red Española de Investigación en Patología Infecciosa, Universidad de Cantabria, UAM. Departamento de Farmacología, and UAM. Departamento de Medicina

Subjects
Male, Neutrophils, Respiratory Infection, 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology, Logistic regression, 0302 clinical medicine, Diagnòstic, Risk Factors, Respiratory infection, Diagnosis, Epidemiology, 030212 general & internal medicine, Hospital Mortality, Aged, 80 and over, Prediction theory, Age Factors, clinical epidemiology, Middle Aged, Tool, Emergency medicine, Female, Glomerular Filtration Rate, Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine, Adult, Prognostic variable, medicine.medical_specialty, Medicina, Renal function, Diagnosis tripod, 03 medical and health sciences, Sex Factors, emergency medicine, Internal medicine, medicine, pneumonia, Humans, Derivation, Lymphocyte Count, Aged, Inpatients, Receiver operating characteristic, business.industry, SARS-CoV-2, Clinical epidemiology, COVID-19, Pneumonia, medicine.disease, Individual prognosis, critical care, Oxygen, Critical care, Logistic Models, Dyspnea, ROC Curve, Teoria de la predicció, Viral infection, viral infection, business, Kidney disease
Abstract

COVID-19@Spain and COVID@HULP Study., [Objective] To develop and validate a prediction model of mortality in patients with COVID-19 attending hospital emergency rooms., [Design] Multivariable prognostic prediction model., [Setting] 127 Spanish hospitals., [Participants] Derivation (DC) and external validation (VC) cohorts were obtained from multicentre and single-centre databases, including 4035 and 2126 patients with confirmed COVID-19, respectively., [Interventions] Prognostic variables were identified using multivariable logistic regression., [Main outcome measures] 30-day mortality., [Results] Patients’ characteristics in the DC and VC were median age 70 and 61 years, male sex 61.0% and 47.9%, median time from onset of symptoms to admission 5 and 8 days, and 30-day mortality 26.6% and 15.5%, respectively. Age, low age-adjusted saturation of oxygen, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, estimated glomerular filtration rate by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation, dyspnoea and sex were the strongest predictors of mortality. Calibration and discrimination were satisfactory with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve with a 95% CI for prediction of 30-day mortality of 0.822 (0.806–0.837) in the DC and 0.845 (0.819–0.870) in the VC. A simplified score system ranging from 0 to 30 to predict 30-day mortality was also developed. The risk was considered to be low with 0–2 points (0%–2.1%), moderate with 3–5 (4.7%–6.3%), high with 6–8 (10.6%–19.5%) and very high with 9–30 (27.7%–100%)., [Conclusions] A simple prediction score, based on readily available clinical and laboratory data, provides a useful tool to predict 30-day mortality probability with a high degree of accuracy among hospitalised patients with COVID-19., This work was supported by Fundación SEIMC/GeSIDA. The funders had no role in study design, data collection, data interpretation or writing of the manuscript. JB, JRB, IJ, JC, JP and JRA received funding for research from Plan Nacional de I+D+i 2013‐2016 and Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Subdirección General de Redes y Centros de Investigación Cooperativa, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades, cofinanced by the European Development Regional Fund “A way to achieve Europe”, Operative program Intelligent Growth 2014‐2020. Spanish AIDS Research Network (RIS) (RD16/0025/0017 (JB), RD16/0025/0018 (JRA), RD16CIII/0002/0006 (IJ)). Spanish Network for Research in Infectious Diseases (REIPI) (RD16/0016/0001 (JRB), RD16/0016/0005 (JC) and RD16/0016/0009 (JP)).

Published
2021

15. Identification and validation of clinical phenotypes with prognostic implications in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19: a multicentre cohort study

Author

Jaime Fernández-Bujarrabal Villoslada, Beatriz Dietl Gómez-Luengo, Daniel Ortiz-Sánchez, José Ramón Blanco Ramos, Bartolomé Gómez-Arroyo, Martín Sebastián Ruiz Grinspan, Ester Sáez de Adana Arróniz, Daniel Daniel López, Judit Villar-García, Begoña De Dios García, Josefina García García, Nuria Rabella García, Ana Rodríguez-Revillas, Lydia Martín González, Mercedes San Franco, Elena Martinez Robles, Teresa González Alegre, Elena Morcillo Rodríguez, Oriol Gasch Blasi, Laura Prieto Pérez, Isabel Jiménez Martínez, Elena Isaba Ares, Ricardo Deza-Palacios, Helena Mendez del Sol, Melchor Riera Jaume, Mercedes Rodriguez-Gutiérrez, Daniel Podzamczer, Mikel Urroz, Luis Ramos Ruperto, María Paniagua, Sergio Alcolea-Batres, Mar Masiá Canuto, Rubén Soriano-Arroyo, Paloma Merino Amador, Berta Antón-Huguet, Gabriela Alcaraz, Pablo Ryan, Carlos Franco, Leyre Díez-Porres, Juan Carlos Figueiras, Sara Lidia Kamal, Mónica Hernández, Lorena Barrera-López, Germán Ramírez-Olivencia, Kapil Laxman Nanwani Nanwani, Alberto Oreja, Montserrat Laguno, José Javier Castrodeza Sanz, Belén Loeches Yagüe, Maria Vargas, Luis Eduardo López-Cortés, Isabel Gutiérrez, Sara Vela Berna, P. Martín, Miguel Pedromingo Kus, Jesús Sanz Sanz, Mº Antonia Sepúlveda Berrocal, Carmen Yera Bergua, Juan Cuadros González, Julen Cadiñanos Loidi, Josefa Serralta Buades, María Concepción Prados Sánchez, Francesca Gioia, Iris Pedrola Gorrea, Francisco Arnaiz de las Revillas, Xabier Kortajarena Urkola, Laia Lorenzo-Esteller, Ruth Bravo-Lizcano, Angel Iniesta, Sofía González-García, Belén Martínez López, Agustín Rojas-Vieyra, Concepción García García, Raquel Cavallé-Pulla, Lucía Gómez García, Alicia Herrero, Carlos Jesús Dueñas Gutiérrez, Loreto Vidaur Tello, Carmen Fernández-Capitán, Victoria Lo-Iacono García, Cecilia Gómez-Domínguez, Adalgisa Falcone, María José Ruiz Rodríguez, Arancha Castellano, Miquel Hortos Alsina, María Concepción Nuñez, María Luisa Fernández Vidal, Jésica Abadia Otero, Natalia Moya-González, Albert Sabater Gil, Pedro de la Oliva, Ylenia María Conde-Alonso, Laura Castelo Corral, José Mº García de Lomas Guerrero, Verónica Pérez-Blanco, Isabel San Juan, Martina Archinà, Júlia Sellarés, Juan Carlos Ramos, Cintia María Martínez Mateu, Belén Fernández-Puntero, Andrea Torrecillas-Mainez, Luis Falgueras López, Carlos Carpio-Segura, María Gandullo-Moro, Francisco Abellán Martínez, Cristina Díez, Pilar Martín Dávila, Silvia Gómez-Zorrilla, María Pilar García García, Renzo Tejada-Sorados, María Dolores del Toro, E. Álvarez-Rojas, Gema Muñiz, Lucía Cajuela, María Novella Mena, Estel Pons Viñas, Andrea Pérez Rodríguez, Benito Almirante, Mónica Gozalo, Patricia Girón De Velasco-Sada, Camilo Sanz Zamudio, Ángeles García Flores, Joaquín López-Contreras González, Blanca Fabre-Estremera, Pelayo Fernández Cidón, María Martínez-Redondo, Paula Alejandra Hernández-Liebo, Juan Herrero, Marta Duque-Alcorta, María Teresa García Morales, Concepción Amador Prous, Alex Soriano, Raquel Hernando Nieto, Raquel Álvarez Franco, Alfonso Cabello Úbeda, Luis Force Sanmartín, Laura Mao Martín, Daniel Prieto-Arribas, Mario Pérez-Butragueño, Pere Domingo Pedrol, Henar Serrano-Martín, Mónica Zubimendi, M. Rodríguez-Rubio, David Pujol-Pocull, Manuel García-Gutiérrez, Carlos Manrique de Lara, Lucy Abella Vázquez, Marta Navarro Vilasaró, Carlota Cascajares-Sanz, Berta Torres, Daniel Ceniza-Pena, Isidro Moreno Gómez-Limón, María Rodríguez Mahía, Alí Martakoush, Antonio Buño-Soto, Patricia Serrano de la Fuente, Claudia González Rico, Teresa Pedraz, Conchita Pérez-Jorge Peremarch, Elena Trigo Esteban, Rosana Rouco Esteves Marques, Juan Mora Delgado, Inés Pérez Zapata, Sandra Pérez-Recio, María Ángeles Domínguez, Manuel Cervantes García, Francisco Reinoso-Lozano, M. Martí De Gracia, Carmina Oltra, Beatriz Pérez-Monte Mínguez, Guillermina Bejarano-Redondo, Sara Heili Frades, María Paz García Butenegro, Miguel Torralba González de Suso, Elena Álvaro-Alonso, Víctor J Moreno Cuerda, Gonzalo Garzón, Marcelo Daltro-Lage, Alberto Serrano Martínez, José María Aguado, Mar Mosquera, Ruth Figueroa Cerón, Juan Carlos Martin Gutiérrez, Javier Oliver Ortega, Esteban Martínez, Cristina Gómez-Ayerbe, Nerea Carrasco Antón, María Carmen Fariñas Álvarez, José Antonio Ruiz, Justo Menéndez, Lucía Díaz, José L. Casado, Pilar Vizcarra, Javier Veganzones, Miguel Ángel Moran Rodríguez, Mercedes López-Martinez, Emilio Letang, Paloma Romero Gallego-Acho, Julia Vasquez-Manau, Alexander Rombauts, Marta Robledo del Prado, Luis Puente, Beatriz Alvarez, Juan Emilio Losa García, José Tomas Algado Rabasa, Rafael Torres Perea, Angélica Rivera-Núñez, Esther Expósito Palomo, Antonio J. Carcas, Lucía Platero-Dueñas, Irene Martín Rubio, Miguel Salavert Lletí, Claudia García-Vaz, Antonio Martínez-Verdasco, Jorge Díaz-Garzón, Javier Nieto Arana, Fernando Cadenas-Gota, Richard Rojas, Abelardo García de Lorenzo, Juan Carlos López, Pedro Luis Martinez Hernández, Manuela de Pablos-Gómez, Pablo Alonso, Enrique Seco, María García-López, Lorena López-Corcuer, Celia Blasco-Andres, Delia Romera-Cano, José M. Azcona Gutiérrez, Almudena Gutiérrez-Arroyo, Paula Mendoza Roy, Ignacio De los Santos Gil, Miguel Angel Sánchez-Castellano, Sara Medrano Pardo, Mikel del Álamo Martínez de Lagos, Rocío Martínez Avilés, Elisabet Martínez-Cerón, José Manuel Vázquez Comendador, Marta Virgós-Varela, Alejandra Álvarez Brandt, Carmen Herrero Rodríguez, Jorge Martínez Jordán, Antonio Rezusta López, Marta Vizcaíno Callejón, Manuela Simon-Velasco, Jorge Ignacio Alonso-Eiras, Elisa García Vázquez, Mercè Gurguí Ferrer, Mónica González Bardanca, Nataly Cancelliere-Fernández, José Luis Díaz de Tuesta del Arco, María Larrosa, Alejandro García García, Carmen Román-Hernández, Elena Calvin-García, José Sanz Moreno, Miguel Silvestre-Niño, Nieves Valcarce Pardeiro, Maria Teresa Corcuera-Pindado, Enrique Monteoliva, Aina Gabarrell Pascuet, Elena María Aranda Rife, Aina Gomila Grange, Alba Alastrué Violeta, Daniel Roger Zapata, Jaime Montserrat, Eduardo Malmierca Corral, Marco Palma, Blanca Martínez Cifre, Gema Domínguez de Pablos, Emilio Cuesta, Eva Perales, Silvia Hernáez Crespo, Juan Torres-Macho, Adrián Sánchez Montalvá, Rocío Montejano Sánchez, Eva Van den Eynde Otero, Silvia Castañeda Espinosa, Virginia Pérez Doñate, Adriana Hernández Belmonte, Laura Iglesias Llorente, María Sanz de Pedro, Juan Espinosa Pereiro, Lubna Dani Ben-Abdellah, Raquel Barrós González, Iván Piñero, Araceli López-Tofiño, Ana Such-Diaz, Karim Mohamed Ramírez, Pilar Toledano Sierra, Rebeca Izquierdo, Guillermo Cuevas, Andrés Felipe Cardona Arias, Ileana Gabriela-Tomoiu, David Vinuesa García, Ander González Sarria, Stephan Stuart, José María Fernández, Javier Torres-Cortés, Elisabet Delgado Sánchez, María Varela-Cerdeira, Gemma Bassani, Berta Román Bernal, Isabel García, Paula Betancort de la Torre, Yolanda Martínez-Abad, Beatriz Arizcun, Juan José Cabanillas-Martín, Guillermo Estrada Fernández, Oscar del Río Pérez, Inmaculada Martín Pérez, Andony García, Luis Gómez-Carrera, Alexander Agrifoglio, Alberto M. Borobia, Jordi Niubó, Vanessa Alende Castro, Lara Montes Andújar, Alexandra De la Vega, Efrén Sánchez Vidal, Isabel A. Pérez Hernández, Laura Frade-Pardo, Ana Josefa Tebar-Martinez, Silvia Álvarez Kaelis, Sara De la Fuente Moral, Luz Martin Carbonero, Juan Cantón De Seoane, María Dolores Montero-Vega, Juan Carlos Gainzarain Arana, Sergio España Cueto, Rocío Nuñez-Cabetas, María Sánchez-Martín, Constanza Muñoz Hornero, Ana Gómez-Zamora, Javier Díaz Luperena, Patricia González-Donapetry, José Miguel Cisneros, Lucía Hernández-Rivas, Patricia González Ruano, Andrea Espigares Correa, Rocío González-León, Nicolás García-Arenzana, Omar Cervera, Andrés Canut Blasco, Ana Isabel Cañabate, Mercedes Villarreal García-Lomas, Melania Íñigo Pestaña, Maria Álvarez de Castro, Ana Correa Ruiz, Belén Civantos, Lydia Pascual-García, Paula Villares Fernández, Mikel Rico-Briñas, María José Alcaide-Martín, Adoración Valiente, Victoria Arnalich-Montiel, Pilar Retamar, Jesús Mingorance, Eva María Romay Lema, Pablo Galindo-Ballesteros, M. Teresa Pérez-Rodríguez, Rosario Maria Torres Santos-Olmo, Inmaculada Pinilla, Elie Dahdouh, Beatriz Tejero-Soriano, Cristina Pizarro-Sanchez, Félix Gutiérrez Rodero, Luis Jara-Palomares, María Hernández-Gancedo, Cristina Chico Chumillas, Sergio Gilaberte Reyzábal, Manuel González-Viñolis, Ana Martínez Sapiña, Francisco Parras, Teresa Rubio Obanos, Iker Falces-Romero, Adriana Sánchez Serrano, Teresa Álvarez de Espejo Montiel, Jorge Valencia, Miquel Pujol, José Luis Velasco Garrido, Belén Calderón-Llopis, Álvaro Varela Plaza, Abel Caro, Juan José González-Garcia, Miguel Sampedro Núñez, María Fernández-Velilla, Emilio Cendejas-Bueno, María Cecilia Cánepa, José Luis Santiago Blanco, Alicia Rico-Nieto, Mónica Liébana Gómez, Sarah Caro Bragado, Susana Sánchez-Rico, José María Marimón Ortiz de Zárate, Paloma Dorao, Cristina Plaza-Moreno, Isabel Valbuena, Natividad Benito Hernández, Ginger Giorgiana Cabrera Tejada, Jordi Carratalà, Sara Fernández Rodríguez, Vicente Ferrer Díaz De Brito Fernández, Pilar Catalán, Pablo Mariscal-Aguilar, Germán Daroca-Bengoa, Rafael Fernandez, Raquel Casitas-Mateo, Ester Zamarrón de Lucas, Úrsula Quesada, Julio Yagüe, María Isabel Quijano Contreras, Trinidad Baselga-Puente, Lourdes Herrera Pacheco, Carlota Gudiol, Alazne Lartategi Iraurgi, Estefanía Martinez-Chavez, Silvia Valero Rovira, Alba Bergas, Zaida Ruiz de Azua, Teresa Prim, Cristina García-Quero, Pilar Hernández Machín, Rubén Gomez-Rioja, María Pavón-Masa, María de las Mercedes Valentín-Pastrana Aguilar, Ilduara Pintos Pascual, Lucía Brieba-Plata, María Jesús Domínguez Santalla, Francisco Javier Membrillo de Novales, Raúl Galera-Martínez, Ana Lérida Urteaga, Miguel Cervero, Alberto Mangas-Moro, José Hernández Quero, Teresa Sancho Bueso, María Angustias Quesada Simón, Luz Parra-Gordo, Sofía Díaz-Carrasco, Juan Carlos Abad Almendro, Andrés Javier Ruiz Fernández, Estíbaliz Molina Iturritza, Aurea Díez-Tascón, Yale Tung-Chen, Marta Rava, Carlos Villasante, Gabriel Gaspar Alonso-Vega, Clara Cabré-Verdiell Surribas, Esther Fraile Villarejo, Aida Gutiérrez García, Ana Robustillo-Rodela, Rafael Padrós Selma, Jesús Rodríguez-Baño, Frank Perdomo-García, Lydia de la Fuente Regaño, María del Mar Arenas-Miras, Cristina Rodríguez Roca, Blanca Montero-San Martín, Gema Crespo-Sánchez, Miguel Ramírez-Verdyguer, Alberto Diaz de Santiago, Marta Díaz Menéndez, María de la Luz Padilla Salazar, Silvia Arribas-Terradillos, Sadaf Zafar Iqubal-Mirza, Isabel Rábago Lorite, Belén Estébanez, Maite Ganchegui Aguirre, André Barbosa Ventura, Estefanía Fernandez-Cerezo, Maria Eulalia Valencia, Zaira R. Palacios-Baena, Beatriz Diaz Pollan, Lidia Martín, Sara Fabra-Cadenas, José Miguel Cantero-Escribano, Carmen Busca Arenzana, Emilia Guasch-Arévalo, Virginia Fernández Espinilla, Ainhoa Urrutia Losada, Oscar Noya González, Raquel Aranega, Alejandro Rodríguez Saenz de Urturi, María Jesús Jaras Hernandez, Charbel Maroun Eid, Marta Mora Rillo, Antonio Ramos Martínez, Meritxell Ortega Montoliu, Jose María Mostaza, Sonia García Calvo, Cristina Verdú, Celia Salamanca, Cristina Cervera Acedo, Mónica Martínez, Miren Urrestarazu Larrañag, Carmen Barroso Castro, Ivo Vives-Beltrán, Lorea Arteche Eguizabal, Ana Montero, Javier Balsa Vázquez, Amparo Perez-Garcia Morillón, Alejandra Pérez García, Isabel Pérez-Tamayo, Rafael Cantón Moreno, Antonio Marín-García, Inmaculada Jarrín, Núria Trullen, Ines Fernandez-Jimenez, Guillermo Ruiz-Carrascosa, Almudena Villa Martí, Jamil Cedeño, Marcos Díez Martínez, Carlos Lahoz, Lorena De la Mora, Javier Sánchez-Lora, Ana María Martínez-Virto, Irene Sanjosé Muñiz, Adrian Peña-Hidalgo, Cristina López Mestanza, Carola Gutiérrez, Ana Laila Qasem-Moreno, Irene Salvo García, Lucía Fernández de Orueta, Jorge Parra Ruiz, Sergio Pérez Pinto, Carlos García-Mochales Fortún, Esteban García de las Heras, Patricia González Muñiz, Mario Fernández-Ruiz, Anna Ferrer Santolaria, Olga Sánchez Pernaute, Julieta Latorre, Jesús Manzanares, Miguel Angel Martinez Gallego, Helena Notario, Ángel Rodríguez-Villodres, Eva Fernández-Bretón, Encarnación Moral Escudero, Mónica Sánchez-Santiuste, Carmen Martínez Cilleros, Ricardo Fernández Roblas, María Yllescas, Eva Soria-Alcaide, Marta Arsuaga Vicente, Marta Gómez-López, Regina Cabrera-Gamero, Natalia Carrasco Fons, Diana Piñar Cabezos, Begoña Sánchez-Sánchez, Francisca Garcia-Iglesias, Raquel Marín-Baselga, Alberto Arranz Caso, Virginia Guedez-López, Lucia Boix Palop, Íñigo Gredilla Zubiría, María Hidalgo-Sánchez, Laura López-Tappero Irazábal, José Ignacio Bernardino de la Serna, Javier Queiruga, Natalia Guadalupe Barrera-López, María López-Jodar, Jorge Calderón Parra, Diego Rodríguez-Álvarez, José Molina, María Luisa Montes, Beatriz Rodríguez-Alonso, Daniel Useros Brañas, Maria Gracia Liras-Hernández, Lucía Romero-Imaz, Nieves Jaén Sánchez, Marta Segovia-Amaro, Marta Vara, Maribel Zamora Cintas, Montaña Jiménez Álvaro, Alberto Moreno Fernandez, Asunción Díaz, Jordi Mancebo Cortés, Francisco Javier De Castro Vega, Álvaro Navarro Batet, Francisco Javier Sagra, Alexandre Pérez González, Luis Castro, Isabel Barrio López, Marta Ruiz-Alguero, Silvia Ossaba-Vélez, Alberto Martín-Vega, Maria Jesus Bustinduy Odriozola, Sivia Pastor-Yvorra, Nuria Espinosa, Elena Múñez Rubio, María E García-Leoni, Sandra Rosillo, Cristina Carbonell, Iván Navas Clemente, Paula Arriola Martínez, Marta Peña, Lucía Martínez de Soto, Roberto Mora-Corcovado, Alberto Iglesias-Sigüenza, Rocío Ruíz-Hueso, Elena Alvar, Pedro Camacho, Jesús Sojo-Dorado, Remedios Alemán Valls, Ines Ponz, Esmeralda Palmier Peláez, María Arcos Rueda, Guillermo Maestro de la Calle, Ramón Pérez Tanoira, Ana Martínez Vidal, Cristina Amodeo, Marina Pacheco Martínez-Atienza, Clara Muñoz Aguirre, Felipe Villar Álvarez, Giorgina Salgueiro, Xavier Sanz Salvador, César Pérez-Romero, Beatriz Álvarez Zapatero, Nelsa González-Aguado, Robert Torres Sánchez del Arco, Enrique Míguez Rey, Merce Sirisi, Xavier Bonfill Cosp, Marta Yagüe-Barrado, Elena Pérez-Costa, Sandra Casares, Eva Estirado, Jorge Alvarez Troncoso, Cristina Martín-Carrasco, Diana Sande Llovo, Melchor Álvarez de Mon Soto, Arantzazu Mera Fidalgo, Francisco Marqués-González, Agustín Valido-Morales, Luis Alberto Nieto Fernández del Campo, Helem Haydee Vilchez, María Rivas-Carmenado, Francisco Moreno, Ignacio Fernández-Fernández, Henar Calvo Sánchez, Ana González-Cordón, Isabel Fernández-Navarro, María Simón Sacristán, Eva Jiménez-González de Buitrago, M. Muñoz, María Laplaza-González, Rosa de Miguel Buckley, Marta Redondo-Gutierrez, Paula Santibáñez Sáenz, Raquel Martínez Goñi, Marta Rico Rodríguez, Carlos Toro-Rueda, Francisco Arnalich, Ana Santiago-Recuerda, Clara Soto Abanedes, María Dolores Herrero Mendoza, Aquilino Sanchez Purificación, Diego Franch Llasat, María Velasco Arribas, Alejandro Martín-Quirós, Jorge Alba Fernández, Elena Ramírez, Amparo López-Bernus, Marta Alvarado, María Rexach Fumaña, Martín Pilares-Barco, Carmen Liébana Martos, Yolanda Martínez Martínez, Nicolas Merchante Gutiérrez, Maria José Asensio, Ianire Virto Peña, Lucía Mejuto-Illade, María Angeles Martinez-López, Pilar López-Pirez, Alejandro Suárez, Cristóbal Manuel Rodríguez Leal, Sara Garcia-Bellido Ruiz, Jorge Guisández Martín, Lucia Cachafeiro, Pedro Gil Divasson, Almudena Quintás-Viqueira, Laura Currás-Sánchez, Alverio Seiz-Martinez, Mario Ruiz-Bastián, Juan José Menéndez, Jorge Orihuela Martín, María Dolores Nieto Martín, Cristina Arévalo, Rebeca Marinas, Susana Casas Rodríguez, Zuriñe Ortiz de Zárate Ibarra, Yolanda Posada Franco, Joan Gómez-Junyent, Ana María Garijo Saiz, Marina Alguacil-Guillén, Ana Alguacil, Esther Aznar Muñoz, Sara Bañón Escandell, Juan Salillas Hernando, Chiara Fanciulli, Rosa Gómez-Gil, Francisco García-Río, Moncef Belhassen-García, Belén Gutierrez Sancerni, Sonia Vega Molpeceres, Inés Suárez-García, Leire Pérez-Latorre, Elena Chamarro Martí, Carmen Rosario Herrero Gil, Belén Gutiérrez-Gutiérrez, Tatiana Mata Forte, Francesca Sánchez Martínez, Lucía Ramos Merino, Santiago Yus, Mº Ángeles Marcos, Susana Martínez-Álvarez, Alexy Inciarte, Manuel Quintana-Díaz, Lucía Serrá, Belén Alejos, Guillem Policarpo Torres, José Román Muñoz del Rey, Irene Blanco-Bartolomé, Alberto Bahamonde Carrasco, Victoria Hernando, Jhon Rojas, David Roa, María Ángeles Garcinuño, Aránzazu Villasante de la Puente, Patricia Pérez-Palacios, Jesús Ruiz Aragón, Valvanera Ibarra Cucalón, Lucía Ortega Enciso, Ismail Zakariya-Yousef Breval, Jorge Navarro López, Gema Barbeito Castiñeiras, Clara Sala Jofre, Nora Molina Torres, Manuel Poyato, Inmaculada Poquet Catala, Virginia Pomar Solchaga, María Pilar Romero-Gómez, Clara Hernández, Helena Mozas Moriñigo, Mercedes Guillamón Sánchez, Zineb Karroud, Arianna Catino, Violeta Ramos Sesma, Santos del Campo, Pilar Fernández-Calle, Ana Fernández Cruz, Fernando Salvador, Rosa Mayayo-Alvira, Pilar Barco Núñez, Ana Isabel Peláez Ballesta, Silvia Suárez Diaz, Beatriz María Sanjuan, Nora Izko Gartzia, Teresa Aldámiz-Echevarría, Cecilia Tortajada Alamilla, Pau Bosch-Nicolau, María del Mar Alonso Socas, Sonia Calzado Isbert, Jose R. Arribas, Juan Fernández-Lahera, Elizabet Petkova Saiz, Eva Jiménez, Gabriela Abelenda-Alonso, Alba Ribera Puig, Pascual Sanabria-Carretero, Sara Rodrigo González, Irene Díaz de la Torre, Tamara Manso Gómez, Carmen Sáez Barberá, Roi Suárez Gil, Paloma García-Clemente, Héctor Meijide Míguez, Elsa Izquierdo-García, Josune Goikoetxea Agirre, Olalla Martínez Macia, Jesús Santos González, Guillermo Jiménez Álvarez, Cristina Marcelo-Calvo, Javier Coy Coy, Isabel Arenas-Berenguer, Julio García Rodríguez, Natalia Yustas-Benitez, Sarai Quirós-Fernández, Marina Noguerol-Gutiérrez, María Adalid Moll, Iván Bloise-Sánchez, Mario José Rodriguez Dominguez, Elena Salamanca, Francisco Mora Gómez, Lucio García-Fraile, Pablo Millán, C Gutiérrez, Montserrat Rodríguez, José Antonio Oteo Revuelta, Joseba Portu Zapirain, Cristina Moreno, Irene Carrillo Acosta, Jorge Calvo, Ana Mariño Callejo, David Romero-Ribate, Blanca Alonso, Elena Muñoz del Val, Elena Resino Foz, Olaia Rodriguez-Fraga, Miguel Villamarín, Irene Amores-Hernández, Laura Muñoz López, Esther García Almodóvar, Ismael Casares Guerrero, Angélica Villanueva-Freije, Nuria Parra Arribas, Montserrat Sanmarti Vilamala, Macarena Lerín-Baratas, Mercedes Castro-Martínez, Melissa Carreres Candela, Lucia Suárez Pérez, Jose Manuel Iturzaeta-Sánchez, Thamires Silva-Freire, José Antonio Peregrina, María Luisa Machado Sicilia, Sergio Zurita, Daniel Molina Morant, Olga González-Peña, Fernando Lázaro-Perona, Paloma Oliver-Saez, Beatriz Mestre-Gómez, Luis Díaz Díez Picazo, Silvia García-Bujalance, Francisco Rodríguez Gómez, Pere Comas Casanova, Carlos Ruiz Martínez, Alberto Delgado-Iribarren, Berta Alonso-González, Isabel Moreno-Parra, Teresa Gómez-Ballesteros, Araceli Menéndez, Jose Manuel Añón, Ruth Jorge García, Jonathan Cámara Fernández, Miguel Górgolas Hernández-Mora, Itziar Diego Yagüe, Miriam Latorre-Millán, Covadonga Morcate Fernández, M. Río-García, Elisabet Lerma-Chippirraz, Carmen Yllera Gutiérrez, Francesc Albertí, Eva Flores, Carmen R. Uña Orejón, Patricio González-Pizarro, Neila Rodriguez-Roca, Miguel Fernández-Huerta, Inés Ferrer Ortiz, María José Blanco Vidal, Juan Pablo Avilés, Alicia Lorenzo Hernández, Mireia Puig Campmany, José Bravo-Ferrer, Gonzalo Martínez-Alés, Pablo Marguenda Contreras, M. Sánchez, Antonio García Pardo, Yolanda Meije, Francisco Tejerina, Carolina Hernández Carballo, Victoria Moreno, Daniel Laorden-Escudero, Ana Barrios Blandino, Alexia Costanza Espiño Álvarez, Ana Milagro Beamonte, Jerónimo Pachón, S San José-Villar, Marta Morando, María del Carmen Navarro Sáez, Rodolfo Álvarez-Sala Walther, Jon Ugalde Espiñeira, Fernando De la Calle Prieto, Nuria Fernández, Iván Pelegrín Senent, Alba Rueda López, Cristina Schüffelmann, Marcelino Hayek Peraza, Laura Labajo-Montero, Angel Robles Marhuenda, Pilar Durán, Ana Esteban-Romero, María Rosa Oltra Sempere, Ana Cosmen Sánchez, Alex Smithson Amat, Margarita Ramírez-Schacke, Marco Antonio Sempere Alcocer, Paloma Carrera-Vázquez, M Miarons, Teresa García Delange, Amelia Rodriguez-Mariblanca, Eva Talavera García, Roberto Vates Gómez, Óscar Sanz Peláez, José María Muñoz-Ramón, José Luis García Fogeda, Isabel Arroyo-Rico, Verónica Cano Llorente, Fernando González-Romo, Alberto Alonso-Babarro, Fátima Brañas, Fabricio Iannuccelli, Pilar Álvarez Padín, Luis Metola Sacristán, Vicente Boix, Víctor Hontañón, Juan Berenguer, José Luís Del Pozo León, Patricia Sorní Moreno, Maria Isabel Torres, Rafael Mican Rivera, Amparo Blasco Claramunt, Carmen Ardanuy, Aychel Elena Roura Piloto, María Ángeles Molina, Isabel Asschert Agüero, Julía Alvárez del Vayo, Consuelo García-Sánchez, Begoña Reche-Martínez, Guillermo Cuervo, Carlos Iniesta, María Antonia Gómez-Mendieta, Ana María Noblejas Mozo, Andres Bartrina-Tarrio, Carmen De la Higuera Arranz, Yeray Untoria Tabares, Andrés Enrique Suárez-Plaza, Jesús Frías, Paloma López-Arévalo, Irene María Llorente-Cortijo, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España), and Fundación SEIMC-GESIDA

Subjects
Male, Prognostic variable, medicine.medical_specialty, Databases, Factual, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology, Cohort Studies, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Internal medicine, Humans, Medicine, 030212 general & internal medicine, Aged, Retrospective Studies, Models, Statistical, SARS-CoV-2, business.industry, Mortality rate, COVID-19, Retrospective cohort study, Articles, Middle Aged, Prognosis, medicine.disease, Phenotype, Hospitals, Hospitalization, Logistic Models, Infectious Diseases, Spain, Cohort, Female, Lymphocytopenia, business, Cohort study
Abstract

REIPI-SEIMC COVID-19 group and COVID@HULP group., [Background] The clinical presentation of COVID-19 in patients admitted to hospital is heterogeneous. We aimed to determine whether clinical phenotypes of patients with COVID-19 can be derived from clinical data, to assess the reproducibility of these phenotypes and correlation with prognosis, and to derive and validate a simplified probabilistic model for phenotype assignment. Phenotype identification was not primarily intended as a predictive tool for mortality., [Methods] In this study, we used data from two cohorts: the COVID-19@Spain cohort, a retrospective cohort including 4035 consecutive adult patients admitted to 127 hospitals in Spain with COVID-19 between Feb 2 and March 17, 2020, and the COVID-19@HULP cohort, including 2226 consecutive adult patients admitted to a teaching hospital in Madrid between Feb 25 and April 19, 2020. The COVID-19@Spain cohort was divided into a derivation cohort, comprising 2667 randomly selected patients, and an internal validation cohort, comprising the remaining 1368 patients. The COVID-19@HULP cohort was used as an external validation cohort. A probabilistic model for phenotype assignment was derived in the derivation cohort using multinomial logistic regression and validated in the internal validation cohort. The model was also applied to the external validation cohort. 30-day mortality and other prognostic variables were assessed in the derived phenotypes and in the phenotypes assigned by the probabilistic model., [Findings] Three distinct phenotypes were derived in the derivation cohort (n=2667)—phenotype A (516 [19%] patients), phenotype B (1955 [73%]) and phenotype C (196 [7%])—and reproduced in the internal validation cohort (n=1368)—phenotype A (233 [17%] patients), phenotype B (1019 [74%]), and phenotype C (116 [8%]). Patients with phenotype A were younger, were less frequently male, had mild viral symptoms, and had normal inflammatory parameters. Patients with phenotype B included more patients with obesity, lymphocytopenia, and moderately elevated inflammatory parameters. Patients with phenotype C included older patients with more comorbidities and even higher inflammatory parameters than phenotype B. We developed a simplified probabilistic model (validated in the internal validation cohort) for phenotype assignment, including 16 variables. In the derivation cohort, 30-day mortality rates were 2·5% (95% CI 1·4–4·3) for patients with phenotype A, 30·5% (28·5–32·6) for patients with phenotype B, and 60·7% (53·7–67·2) for patients with phenotype C (log-rank test p, [Interpretation] Patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 can be classified into three phenotypes that correlate with mortality. We developed and validated a simplified tool for the probabilistic assignment of patients into phenotypes. These results might help to better classify patients for clinical management, but the pathophysiological mechanisms of the phenotypes must be investigated., [Funding] Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, and Fundación SEIMC/GeSIDA., Funding: Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, and Fundación SEIMC/GeSIDA.

Published
2021

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