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Endometrial cancer is currently one of the most common gynecological cancers. Reported incidence rates vary in Spain depending on the region. We estimated what the incidence and mortality of endometrial cancers in Catalonia will be by 2030 and compared the predictions with data from 2010. Bayesian autoregressive age-period-cohort models were employed to predict incidence and mortality rates for 2015−2030. The incidence of endometrial cancer for women younger than 65 years was predicted to be lower in 2030 than in 2010, whereas it was predicted to be higher for women aged 65–74 years. Moreover, mortality rates for women aged ≥65 in 2030 are likely to exceed the rates in 2010. Five-year relative survival for all ages was slightly higher in the period 2005–2009 (79.3 %, 95 %CI: 75.8 %–82.9 %) compared with those in 1995–1999 (76.0 %, 95 %CI: 72.1 %–80.2 %). This plausible new scenario might be useful to plan new clinical and preventive strategies in the near future.

The diagnosis of a second primary cancer (SPC) is a major concern in the follow-up of survivors of a primary head and neck cancer (HNC), but the anatomic subsites in the head and neck area are close, making it difficult to distinguish a SPC of a recurrence and therefore register it correctly. We performed a retrospective cohort study using data from two population-based cancer registries in Catalonia, Spain: the Tarragona Cancer Registry and the Girona Cancer Registry. All patients diagnosed with HNC during the period 1994–2013 were registered and followed-up to collect cases of SPC. We analysed the standardized incidence ratio (SIR) and the excess absolute risk (EAR) to determine the risk of second malignancies following a prior HNC. 923 SPC were found in a cohort of 5646 patients diagnosed of a first head and neck cancer. Men had an increased risk of a SPC with a SIR of 2.22 and an EAR of 216.76. Women also had an increased risk with a SIR of 2.02 and an EAR of 95.70. We show the risk for different tumour sites and discuss the difficulties of the analysis. The risks of a SPC following a prior HNC in Tarragona and Girona are similar to those previously found in other similar cohorts. It would appear to be advisable to make a revision of the international rules of classification of multiple tumours, grouping the sites of head and neck area with new aetiological criteria to better determine and interpret the risks of SPC obtained in these studies.

Due to the differences in the definition, criteria of inclusion and coding of urothelial tumours (UTs), data of different cancer registries (CRs) are not comparable. The aim of this work is to study current practices of registration of UT in the European CR of the GRELL countries in order to propose new registration rules to correctly describe incidence and survival of progressive tumours like UT. A questionnaire was sent to 91 CRs to assess whether non-invasive (NI)UT, multiple UTs, UTs occurring outside or before the operating period and time between UTs are currently considered in tumour recording and reporting. All participating CRs (n = 42) record a NI bladder UT in sole occurrence. In case of progressive bladder UT, 98% of the CRs record at least one NIUT but 19% don’t record the invasive progression. 17% of the CRs don’t record an invasive pelvic tumour that occurs after a NI bladder UT. 19% of the CRs don’t record an invasive bladder UT that followed a NI tumour occurring outside the zone or period of time. The recording of two synchronous UTs is carried out with a grouping topography for 36% of the CRs. The same analysis conducted on the reporting of the incidence of UT also shows heterogeneity. We conclude that there is an urgent need to define clear rules for the registration of UT.

Ovarian cancer is the most lethal gynaecological cancer in very-high-human-development-index regions. Ovarian cancer incidence and mortality rates are estimated to globally rise by 2035, although incidence and mortality rates depend on the region and prevalence of the associated risk factors. The aim of this study is to assess changes in incidence and mortality of ovarian cancer in Catalonia by 2030. Bayesian autoregressive age–period–cohort models were used to predict the burden of OC incidence and mortality rates for the 2015–2030 period. Incidence and mortality rates of ovarian cancer are expected to decline in Catalonia by 2030 in women ≥ 45 years of age. A decrease in ovarian-cancer risk was observed with increasing year of birth, with a rebound in women born in the 1980s. A decrease in mortality was observed for the period of diagnosis and period of death. Nevertheless, ovarian-cancer mortality remains higher among older women compared to other age groups. Our study summarizes the most plausible scenario for ovarian-cancer changes in terms of incidence and mortality in Catalonia by 2030, which may be of interest from a public health perspective for policy implementation.

Breast cancer (BC) is globally the most frequent cancer in women. Adherence to endocrine therapy (ET) in hormone-receptor-positive BC patients is active and voluntary for the first five years after diagnosis. This study examines the impact of adherence to ET on 10-year excess mortality (EM) in patients diagnosed with Stages I to III BC (N = 2297). Since sample size is an issue for estimating age-and stage-specific survival indicators, we developed a method, ComSynSurData, for generating a large synthetic dataset (SynD) through probabilistic graphical modeling of the original cohort. We derived population-based survival indicators using a Bayesian relative survival model fitted to the SynD. Our modeling showed that hormone-receptor-positive BC patients diagnosed beyond 49 years of age at Stage I or beyond 59 years at Stage II do not have 10-year EM if they follow the prescribed ET regimen. This result calls for developing interventions to promote adherence to ET in patients with hormone receptor-positive BC and in turn improving cancer survival. The presented methodology here demonstrates the potential use of probabilistic graphical modeling for generating reliable synthetic datasets for validating population-based survival indicators when sample size is an issue This work was supported by Instituto de Salud Carlos III PI18/01836 funded by FEDER funds/European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)-a way to Build Europe-//FONDOS FEDER “una manera de hacer Europa”

Lung cancer remains one the most common cancers in Europe and ranks first in terms of cancer mortality in both sexes. Incidence rates vary by region and depend above all on the prevalence of tobacco consumption. In this study we describe recent trends in lung cancer incidence by sex, age and histological type in Catalonia and project changes according to histology by 2025. Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to predict trends in lung cancer incidence according to histological type from 2012 to 2025, using data from the population-based Catalan cancer registries. Data suggest a decrease in the absolute number of new cases in men under the age of 70 years and an increase in women aged 60 years or older. Adenocarcinoma was the most common type in both sexes, while squamous cell carcinoma and small cell carcinoma were decreasing significantly among men. In both sexes, the incident cases increased by 16% for patients over 70 years. Increases in adenocarcinoma and rising incidence in elderly patients suggest the need to prioritize strategies based on multidisciplinary teams, which should include geriatric specialists.

Mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD), second tumours, and other causes is of clinical interest in the long-term follow-up of breast cancer (BC) patients. Using a cohort of BC patients (N = 6758) from the cancer registries of Girona and Tarragona (north-eastern Spain), we studied the 10-year probabilities of death due to BC, other cancers, and CVD according to stage at diagnosis and hormone receptor (HR) status. Among the non-BC causes of death (N = 720), CVD (N = 218) surpassed other cancers (N = 196). The BC cohort presented a significantly higher risk of death due to endometrial and ovarian cancers than the general population. In Stage I, HR− patients showed a 1.72-fold higher probability of all-cause death and a 6.11-fold higher probability of breast cancer death than HR+ patients. In Stages II–III, the probability of CVD death (range 3.11% to 3.86%) surpassed that of other cancers (range 0.54% to 3.11%). In Stage IV patients, the probability of death from any cancer drove the mortality risk. Promoting screening and preventive measures in BC patients are warranted, since long-term control should encompass early detection of second neoplasms, ruling out the possibility of late recurrence. In patients diagnosed in Stages II–III at an older age, surveillance for preventing late cardiotoxicity is crucial.

Studies about the survival of patients with prostate cancer by stage or risk of progression are scarce. The aims of this study were (1) to determine the cause-specific survival by risk in prostate cancer patients in Mallorca diagnosed in the period 2006–2011, (2) to identify the factors that explain and predict the likelihood of survival and the risk of dying from this type of cancer, and (3) to determine the distribution of prostate cancer by risk in the patients in Mallorca diagnosed in the period 2006–2011. Incident prostate cancer cases diagnosed between 2006 and 2011 were identified through the Mallorca Cancer Registry. We collected age, date and method of diagnosis, date of follow-up or death, T, N, M and stage according to the TNM 7th edition, Gleason score, prostate-specific antigen (PSA), histology according to the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology (ICD-O) 3rd edition, comorbidities and treatments. We calculated risk in four categories: low, medium, high and very high. The end point of follow-up was 31 December 2014. Multiple imputation (MI) was performed to estimate cases with unknown risk. We identified 2921 cases. Five years after diagnosis, survival after MI was 89% globally, and was 100% for low-risk cases, 96% for medium risk, 93% for high risk and 69% for very-high-risk cases. Cases with histology other than adenocarcinoma, with high (and especially very high) risk, as well as with systemic, mixed and observation/unspecified treatments had worse prognoses.

Objectives: 1) to find out the distribution of prostate cancer by risk of progression; 2) to determine the cause-specific survival by risk of progression in prostate cancer; 3) to identify the factors associated with the risk of dying from this cancer.Methods: Incident prostate cancer cases diagnosed between 2006 and 2011 were identified through the Mallorca Cancer Registry. Inclusion criteria: invasive cases with code C61.9 and any histology. Cases identified exclusively through death certificate were excluded. We collected: age; date and method of diagnosis; date of follow-up or death; T, N, M and stage according to the TNM 7th edition; Gleason score; PSA; histology according to the ICD-O 3rd edition 6 ; comorbidities and treatments. We calculated risk in 4 categories: low, medium, high and very high. End point of follow-up was 31 December 2014. Multiple imputation (MI) was performed to estimate cases with unknown risk of progression. Survival analysis was performed using the actuarial and Kaplan-Meier methods, as well as the Cox regression model.Results: We identified 2921 cases. After MI, 9.5% had low risk, 24.9% medium risk, 42.7% high risk and 22.9% very high risk. Five years after diagnosis, survival after MI was 89% globally, that being 100% for low risk cases, 96% for medium risk, 93% for high risk and 69% for very high risk. Cases with histology other than adenocarcinoma, with high and, especially, very high risk of progression, as well as with systemic, mixed and observation/unspecified treatments have worse prognosis. Treatment showed a strong relationship with age and life expectancy.Conclusions: Risk of progression and treatment were the main variables associated to survival in prostate cancer.

Background: Information about survival by stage in bladder cancer is scarce. Objectives: 1) to find out the distribution of bladder and urinary tract cancers by stage; 2) to determine cancer-specific survival by stage of bladder and urinary tract cancers; 3) to identify factors that explain and predict the likelihood of survival and the risk of dying from these cancers.Methods: Incident bladder and urinary tract cancer cases diagnosed between 2006 and 2011 were identified through the Mallorca Cancer Registry. Inclusion criteria: cases with codes C65–C68 (ICD-O 3) with any behaviour. DCO cases were excluded. We collected: sex; age; date and method of diagnosis; histology (ICD-O 3); T, N, M and stage at the time of diagnosis; and date of follow-up or death. End of follow up was 31 December 2015. Multiple imputation (MI) was performed to estimate cases with unknown stage. Actuarial and Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox regression models were used.Results: 2060 cases were identified. 15% were women and 65.2% were 65 years or older. 3.7% had no stage (benign or undetermined behaviour) and 12.5% had unknown stage. After MI, 35.7% were in stage Ta (non-invasive papillary carcinoma), 3.1% in stage Tis (carcinoma in situ), 33.3% in stage I, 11.9 % in Stage II, 4.7% in stage III, and 11.1% in stage IV. Survival was 73% at 5 years. Survival by stage: 98% at stage Ta, 88% at stage Tis, 84% at stage I, 44% at stage II, 33% at stage III, and 7% at stage IV. The Cox model showed that age, histology, and stage were associated with survival.Conclusion: Bladder and urinary tract cancers survival vary greatly with stage. The percentage of non-invasive cancers was high. Stage, age and histology are associated to survival, but sex has no association.

Background: 1) to find out the distribution of bladder and urinary tract cancers by stage; 2) to determine cause-specific survival by stage of bladder and urinary tract cancers; 3) to identify factors that explain and predict the likelihood of survival and the risk of dying from these cancers.Methods: Incident bladder and urinary tract cancer cases diagnosed between 2006 and 2011 were identified through the Mallorca Cancer Registry. Inclusion criteria: cases with codes C65–C68 according to the ICD-O 3rd edition with any behaviour. Cases identified exclusively through the death certificate were excluded. We collected the following data: sex; age; date and method of diagnosis; histology according to the ICD-O 3rd edition; T, N, M and stage at the time of diagnosis; and date of follow-up or death. End point of follow-up was 31 December 2015. Multiple imputation (MI) was performed to estimate cases with unknown stage. Cases with benign or indeterminate behaviour were excluded for the survival analysis. Actuarial and Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox regression models were used for survival analysis.Results: 2060 cases were identified. 15% were women and 65.2% were 65 years or older. 93.6% consisted of bladder and other urinary tracts. 55.7% were papillary transitional neoplasia, 37.7% solid transitional, 0.6% microcytic, and the rest of other histology. 3.7% had no stage (benign or undetermined behaviour) and 12.5% had unknown stage. After MI, 35.7% were in stage 0a (non-invasive papillary carcinoma), 3.1% in stage 0is (carcinoma in situ), 33.3% in stage I, 11.9 % in Stage II, 4.7% in stage III, and 11.1% in stage IV. Survival was 73% at 5 years. Survival by stage: 98% at stage 0a, 88% at stage 0is, 84% at stage I, 44% at stage II, 33% at stage III, and 7% at stage IV. The Cox model showed that age, histology, and stage were associated with survival.Conclusion: Bladder and urinary tract cancers survival vary greatly with stage, among both non-invasive and invasive cases.

Resumen: Objetivo: Analizar la supervivencia poblacional del cáncer de mama (CM) en estadios precoces, estimando la tendencia temporal del exceso de mortalidad (EM) a largo plazo en periodos anuales y quinquenales, y determinando, si es posible, una proporción de pacientes que puedan considerarse curadas. Método: Se incluyó la cohorte de pacientes diagnosticadas de CM en estadios I y II antes de los 60 años de edad en Gerona y Tarragona (N = 2453). Se calcularon la supervivencia observada (SO) y la supervivencia relativa (SR) al CM hasta los 20 años de seguimiento. Para valorar el EM se estimó la SR a intervalos anuales (SRI) y quinquenales (SR5). Los resultados se presentan por grupos de edad (≤49 y 50-59), estadio (I/II) y periodo de diagnóstico (1985-1994 y 1995-2004). Resultados: En el estadio I, la SO y la SR fueron mayores en 1995-2004 que en 1985-1994: 3,5% a los 15 años de seguimiento y 4,5% a los 20 años. La SO superó el 80% en el estadio I y se mantuvo inferior al 70% en el estadio II. Sin embargo, el EM a largo plazo no desapareció (SRI

Resumen: La supervivencia relativa se ha utilizado habitualmente como medida de la evolución temporal del exceso de riesgo de mortalidad en cohortes de pacientes diagnosticados de cáncer, teniendo en cuenta la mortalidad de una población de referencia. Una vez estimado el exceso de riesgo de mortalidad pueden calcularse tres probabilidades acumuladas a un tiempo T: 1) la probabilidad de fallecer asociada a la causa de diagnóstico inicial (enfermedad en estudio), 2) la probabilidad de fallecer asociada a otras causas, y 3) la probabilidad de supervivencia absoluta en la cohorte a un tiempo T. Este trabajo presenta la aplicación WebSurvCa (https://shiny.snpstats.net/WebSurvCa/), mediante la cual los registros de cáncer de base hospitalaria y poblacional, y los registros de otras enfermedades, estiman dichas probabilidades en sus cohortes seleccionando como población de referencia la mortalidad de la comunidad autónoma que consideren. Abstract: Relative survival has been used as a measure of the temporal evolution of the excess risk of death of a cohort of patients diagnosed with cancer, taking into account the mortality of a reference population. Once the excess risk of death has been estimated, three probabilities can be computed at time T: 1) the crude probability of death associated with the cause of initial diagnosis (disease under study), 2) the crude probability of death associated with other causes, and 3) the probability of absolute survival in the cohort at time T. This paper presents the WebSurvCa application (https://shiny.snpstats.net/WebSurvCa/), whereby hospital-based and population-based cancer registries and registries of other diseases can estimate such probabilities in their cohorts by selecting the mortality of the relevant region (reference population). Palabras clave: Cáncer de mama, Supervivencia neta, Supervivencia relativa, Exceso de mortalidad, Riesgos competitivos, Keywords: Breast cancer, Net survival, Relative survival, Excess mortality, Competing risk

Background We provide population-based long-term survival indicators of breast cancer patients by quantifying the observed survival, and the probabilities of death due to breast cancer and to other causes by age and tumor stage at diagnosis. Methods We included a total of 10,195 female patients diagnosed before 85 years with invasive primary breast cancer in Girona and Tarragona during the periods 1985–1994 and 1995–2004 and followed-up until December 31st 2014. The survival indicators were estimated at 5, 10, 15 and 20 years of follow-up comparing diagnostic periods. Results Comparing diagnostic periods: I) the probability of death due to other causes did not change; II) the 20-year survival for women diagnosed ≤ 49 years increased 13% (1995–2004 = 68%; 1985–1994:55%), whereas their probability of death due to breast cancer decreased at the same pace (1995–2004 = 29%; 1985–1994 = 42%); III) at 10 years of follow-up, decreases in the probabilities of death due to breast cancer across age groups switched from 11 to 17% resulting in a risk of death reduction of 19% after adjusting by stage. During 1995–2004, the stage-specific 10-year probabilities of death due to breast cancer switched from: 3–6% in stage I, 18–20% in stage II, 34–46% in stage III and surpassed 70% in stage IV beyond 5 years after diagnosis. Conclusions In our study, women diagnosed with breast cancer had higher long-term probability to die from breast cancer than from other causes. The improvements in treatment and the lead-time bias in detecting cancer in an early stage resulted in a reduction of 19% in the risk of death between diagnostic periods. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s12094-018-1852-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background Two common issues may arise in certain population-based breast cancer (BC) survival studies: I) missing values in a survivals’ predictive variable, such as “Stage” at diagnosis, and II) small sample size due to “imbalance class problem” in certain subsets of patients, demanding data modeling/simulation methods. Methods We present a procedure, ModGraProDep, based on graphical modeling (GM) of a dataset to overcome these two issues. The performance of the models derived from ModGraProDep is compared with a set of frequently used classification and machine learning algorithms (Missing Data Problem) and with oversampling algorithms (Synthetic Data Simulation). For the Missing Data Problem we assessed two scenarios: missing completely at random (MCAR) and missing not at random (MNAR). Two validated BC datasets provided by the cancer registries of Girona and Tarragona (northeastern Spain) were used. Results In both MCAR and MNAR scenarios all models showed poorer prediction performance compared to three GM models: the saturated one (GM.SAT) and two with penalty factors on the partial likelihood (GM.K1 and GM.TEST). However, GM.SAT predictions could lead to non-reliable conclusions in BC survival analysis. Simulation of a “synthetic” dataset derived from GM.SAT could be the worst strategy, but the use of the remaining GMs models could be better than oversampling. Conclusion Our results suggest the use of the GM-procedure presented for one-variable imputation/prediction of missing data and for simulating “synthetic” BC survival datasets. The “synthetic” datasets derived from GMs could be also used in clinical applications of cancer survival data such as predictive risk analysis.

To determine the incidence of serious rib cage damage (SRD) and serious visceral damage (SVD) secondary to cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) and to explore associated factors.We analyzed data from the prospective registry of cases of sudden death in Tarragona, Spain (the ReCaPTa study). Cases were collected from multiple surveillance sources. In this study we included the cases of autopsied nonsurvivors after attempted manual CPR between April 2014 and May 2016. A specific protocol to detect injuries secondary to CPR was used during the autopsies.We analyzed 109 cases. The mean age at death was 63 years and 32.1% were women. SRD were found in 63.3% and SVD in 14.7%. The group with SRD were significantly older (63 vs 59 years, P=.031) and included higher percentages of persons with a chest circumference over 101 cm (56.5 vs 30%, P=.016) and a waist circumference over 100 cm (62.3 vs 37.5%, P=.017). A multivariable analysis confirmed chest circumference over 101 cm as the only risk factor for SRD (odds ratio [OR], 2.45; 95% CI, 1.03-5.84) and female sex as the only risk factor for SVD (OR, 5.02; 95% CI, 1.18-21.25).Women and any patient with a chest circumference greater than 101 cm are at greater risk for serious injuries related to CPR.Determinar la incidencia de lesiones torácicas óseas graves (LTOG) y de lesiones viscerales graves (LVG) secundarias a reanimación cardiopulmonar (RCP) y estudiar las variables asociadas a ellas.Se analizaron los datos del proyecto ReCaPTa, estudio prospectivo de la muerte súbita, con varias fuentes de información. Se incluyeron los pacientes no supervivientes a un intento de RCP manual, entre abril de 2014 y mayo de 2016, en los que se aplicó un protocolo autópsico específico para el estudio de las lesiones secundarias a la RCP.Se analizaron 109 sujetos, con una mediana de edad de 63 años y un 32,1% de mujeres. El 63,3% presentaron LTOG y el 14,7%, LVG. El grupo con LTOG fue de mayor edad (63 vs 59 años, p = 0,031) y se asoció a una mayor proporción de pacientes con un perímetro torácico101 cm (56,5 vs 30%, p = 0,016) y con un perímetro abdominal100 cm (62,3 vs 37,5%, p = 0,017). En un análisis multivariado el perímetro torácico101 cm fue el único factor de riesgo para LTOG (OR 2,45; IC 95% 1,03-5,84) y el sexo femenino fue el único factor de riesgo para LVG (OR 5,02; IC 95% 1,18-21,25).Los pacientes con un perímetro torácico mayor de 101 cm y las mujeres presentan un riesgo superior de lesiones graves debidas a la RCP.

Evidence suggests an excess of long-term mortality due to cardiovascular diseases, second tumours and other causes in patients diagnosed with invasive breast cancer (BC). Our aim was to assess this risk of death in a cohort of patients diagnosed with BC in Girona and Tarragona, northeastern Spain. Materials and methods: Using data from the cancer registries in these areas, a population-based cohort study was carried out including all the women diagnosed with BC during 1985–2004 and followed up until December 31st 2014 (N = 10,195). The standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated for causes other than BC in the cohort at 10 years (periods 1985–1994/1995–2004) and 20 years (period 1985–1994). The impact of competing causes of death in the long-term survival was evaluated through competing risk analysis. Results: The SMRs at 10 and 20 years for all-cause mortality, except BC, were 1.21 and 1.22. The main causes of mortality showing statistically significant SMR at 10 years were other tumours (colon, lung, corpus uteri, ovary, and haematological), diabetes mellitus, diseases of the nervous system, cardiovascular diseases (after BC, the second competing cause of death among patients diagnosed > 69 years) and diseases of the kidney. Globally, the 10-year SMR was higher in the first period. After 20 years of follow-up (1985–1994 cohort), there were 48.5 excess deaths per 10,000 patient-years for causes other than BC. Conclusions: Women who did not die from BC at 10 or 20 years after the BC diagnosis had 20% higher risk of dying from other causes than women without BC. This excess risk must be clinically considered during 20 years after the BC diagnosis This work was supported by (1) Instituto deSalud Carlos III through the Project PI14/01041, co-funded by FEDER funds/European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)-a way to Build Europe-//FONDOS FEDER “una manera de hacer Europa” and by (2) Agència d’Avaluació d’Universitats i Recerca (2017SGR00735) from Generalitat de Catalunya

To analyze the population-based survival of breast cancer (CM) diagnosed in early stages estimating the time trends of excess mortality (EM) in the long term in annual and five-year time intervals, and to determine, if possible, a proportion of patients who can be considered cured.We included women diagnosed with BC under the age of 60 years in stages I and II in Girona and Tarragona (N = 2453). The observed (OS) and relative survival (RS) were calculated up to 20 years of follow-up. RS was also estimated at annual (RSI) and in five-year intervals (RS5) to graphically assess the EM. The results are presented by age groups (≤49 and 50-59), stage (I/II) and diagnostic period (1985-1994 and 1995-2004).In stage I, OS and RS were higher during 1995-2004 compared to 1985-1994: 3.5% at 15 years of follow-up and 4.5% at 20-years of follow-up. In 1995-2004, the OS surpassed 80% in stage I patients whereas in stage II it remained below 70%. During 1995-2004, the long-term EM did not level off towards 0 (RSI1) independently of age group, stage and period of diagnosis. After 15 years of follow-up, the 5-year EM oscillated between 1 and 5% in stage I (RS5 ≥0.95) and between 5 and 10% in stage II.In our cohort, after 15 years of follow-up, it was detected that the annual EM did not disappear and the five-year EM remained between 1 and 10%. Therefore, it was not possible to determine a cure rate of BC during the study period.

To evaluate the differences between autochthonous and allochthonous women's participation in a breast cancer screening programme.Retrospective study based on data from the Breast Cancer Screening Programme of the province of Tarragona (2008-2015). The sample is the target population of the programme with known country of origin.Cohort of 40,824 women. Allochthonous women participate less than autochthonous women (41.8% vs. 72.3%) although they have a similar global detection rate to the latter but with differences according to the human development index of their country of origin. Both groups present similar tumour stages on detection (p=.59).Strategies specifically aimed at the immigrant population are required to improve their participation in breast cancer screening.

Relative survival has been used as a measure of the temporal evolution of the excess risk of death of a cohort of patients diagnosed with cancer, taking into account the mortality of a reference population. Once the excess risk of death has been estimated, three probabilities can be computed at time T: 1) the crude probability of death associated with the cause of initial diagnosis (disease under study), 2) the crude probability of death associated with other causes, and 3) the probability of absolute survival in the cohort at time T. This paper presents the WebSurvCa application (https://shiny.snpstats.net/WebSurvCa/), whereby hospital-based and population-based cancer registries and registries of other diseases can estimate such probabilities in their cohorts by selecting the mortality of the relevant region (reference population).

Aims and Background Bayesian survival analysis was applied to assess the long-term survival and probability of death due to breast cancer (BC) in Girona, the Spanish region with the highest BC incidence. Methods A Bayesian autoregressive model was implemented to compare survival indicators between the periods 1985–1994 and 1995–2004. We assessed the long-term excess hazard of death, relative survival (RS), and crude probability of death due to BC (PBC) up to 20 years after BC diagnosis, reporting the 95% credible intervals (CI) of these indicators. Results Patients diagnosed from 1995 onwards showed lower 20-year excess hazards of death than those diagnosed earlier (RS during 1985–1994: local stage: 76.6%; regional stage: 44.9%; RS during 1995–2004: local stage: 85.2%; regional stage: 57.0%). The PBC after 20 years of BC diagnosis for patients diagnosed in 1995 and after might reach 14.4% (95% CI: 8.9%–21.2%) in local stage and 41.0% (95% CI: 36.1%–47.1%) in regional stage. Conclusions The method presented could be useful when dealing with population-based survival data from a small region. Better survival prospects were found in patients diagnosed after 1994, although we detected a non-decreasing long-term excess hazard of death, suggesting that these patients have higher mortality than the general population even 10 years after the diagnosis of BC.

Fundamentos y objetivos Proyectar la incidencia y la mortalidad por cancer en Cataluna en el periodo 2005-2019. Analizar el incremento pronosticado de la incidencia en 2015 respecto a la del ano 2005 y determinar si es debida a cambios en el riesgo o a componentes demograficos. Poblacion y metodo Mediante modelos edad-periodo-cohorte bayesianos se han ajustado para Cataluna las tasas brutas de incidencia y mortalidad por cancer en el periodo 1985-2004 y el numero de casos esperados en los quinquenios 2005-2009, 2010-2014 y 2015-2019. Los casos anuales se calcularon mediante una interpolacion polinomica. La incidencia y la mortalidad por cancer se obtuvieron de los registros de cancer de Girona y Tarragona y del Registro de mortalidad de Cataluna; las piramides poblacionales del periodo 1985-2019, del Instituto de Estadistica de Cataluna. Resultados En 2015 se diagnosticaran 27.438 casos de cancer en los varones y 19.986 en las mujeres, con lo que se producira un incremento del 31% y el 34% respecto a los del ano 2005 (20.999 y 14.141, respectivamente). En los varones, el aumento esperado de casos de cancer debido a cambios en el riesgo, el envejecimiento y en el tamano poblacional son respectivamente del 10, el 14 y el 7% y, en las mujeres, del 6, el 13 y el 15%. En los varones se augura una estabilizacion de la mortalidad por cancer en los proximos anos, mientras que se espera que siga disminuyendo en las mujeres. Los incrementos de la incidencia y la mortalidad seran mas importantes en los individuos de edad avanzada. Conclusiones El presente estudio remarca la necesidad de reorganizar los recursos y las infraestructuras necesarias en el control y la asistencia del cancer en Cataluna, a fin de anticiparse al incremento de pacientes oncologicos.

OBJECTIVE To describe the secular trend of cancer incidence in Catalonia and to compare it with that observed in European regions. MATERIAL AND METHOD Using data from the Tarragona and Gerona cancer registries, the number of cases, adjusted rates, and the annual percentages of change in cancer incidence in Catalonia for the period 1985-2002 were estimated. Cancer incidence trends in Catalonia, Spain, and four European regions were compared using variations in the adjusted rates between the periods 1993-1997 and 1998-2002. RESULTS The number of invasive cancers increased from 15,773 in 1985 to 30,755 in 2002. The adjusted incidence rate showed an annual increase of 2.64% in males and of 1.81% in females. Almost all tumoral types showed an increasing trend. The most frequent malignant tumors in males were prostate, lung, colon and rectum, and urinary bladder tumors, showing increases of 8.74%, 1.67%, 3.47% and 4.32% respectively. The most frequent tumors in females were breast, colon and rectum and corpus uterine tumors, showing increases of 2.45%, 1.67% and 0.78%, respectively. In males, Catalonia showed lower annual incidence rates than the remaining European regions in 1985 and higher rates in 2002. In females, rates remained lower than in other European regions. CONCLUSIONS In Catalonia, the number of incident cancers increased because of population growth and aging, greater exposure to risk factors and, for some cancer types, higher detection rates. Overall cancer incidence trends followed a similar pattern to those of southern Europe, with higher increases than in the remaining European regions, especially in males.

HIV infected people and AIDS patients develop cancer more frequently than the general population. The objective of this study was to evaluate the risk of developing cancer among 15 to 69 year old AIDS patients from two geographic areas: Tarragona and Girona provinces, in north-eastern Spain. We have studied invasive and in situ cancers (for all sites) among 1659 AIDS patients from +/-5 years around the date of their AIDS diagnosis by matching the population-based Cancer Registries with the AIDS Registry covering these populations. The periods used in the linkage were 1981-1998 for Tarragona and 1994-1999 for Girona. Sex and age-standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) of observed-to-expected cancers were calculated by type of cancer as a measure of risk. For selected types of cancers, SIRs were also calculated for HIV exposure category. Compared with the general population, incidence of cancer among AIDS patients (invasive and in situ) increased 22.9 fold in men (n=142) and 21.0 fold in women (n=45). High statistically significant SIRs were found for Kaposi's sarcoma (KS) (male, 486.4; female, 1030.0), non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) (male, 126.1; female, 192.8) and invasive cervical cancer (41.8). High risks were also found for Hodgkin's lymphoma (31.1), liver cancer (29.4) and lung cancer (9.4) in men, and in situ cervical cancer (24.4) in women. For all non-AIDS defining malignant neoplasms as a group SIRs were 3.4 in men and 2.5 in women. Among men, homo/bisexuality was strongly related to risk of KS and NHL. The rates of cervical cancer, Hodgkin's lymphoma, liver cancer and lung cancer were among the highest ever reported linked to HIV infection. For the cervical cancer this could be attributable to the low incidence of this cancer in the general population and to the high prevalence of intravenous drug users among HIV women and probably due to poor preventive strategies in this population.

To evaluate the cosmetic outcome of breast conservative therapy and to examine the degree of agreement between the patients' and oncologists' ratings. We also analyze the influence of several factors on cosmesis.We retrospectively evaluated 145 patients with primary breast cancer treated by local excision and radiotherapy between January 2000 and May 2001. Cosmetic outcome was evaluated by doctors and patients and was scored as excellent, good, fair or poor.73% of patients rated cosmesis as excellent or good while the percentage was 71% when rated by radiation oncologists. The degree of cosmesis concordance evaluated by oncologists and patients was low (kappa = 0.3). In our study the variables which significantly influence on the cosmetic outcome were concomitant adjuvant chemotherapy (p = 0.04) and radiation therapy boost, either by electron beam or brachytherapy (p = 0.013).The cosmetic outcome of breast conserving therapy was good. There was a similar rating by the patient and radiation oncologist, but the level of concordance between patients and doctors was low. Factors that significantly influence the cosmesis appear to be concomitant adjuvant chemotherapy and radiation therapy boost.

The diagnostic approach of Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumours (GIST) was established in 2002. Before this, GIST had been classified with a wide range of histological terms. This fact and the consideration of potential malignity of all these tumours led to a false perception of an increasing incidence. This study aimed at evaluating the accuracy in registration of sarcoma of digestive tract and GIST and to elucidate the trends of incidence and survival of those. We used data from two population-based cancer registries in Spain. In the Girona’s Cancer Registry we previously reclassified all sarcoma of digestive tract performing c-kit to confirm GIST and analysed the time period 1994–2005. In Tarragona’s Cancer Registry, where we analysed the time period 1981–2005, this reclassification was not done. We obtained a significant increasing trend in incidence of all sarcoma of digestive tract in the Tarragona Cancer Registry database, with an annual per cent of change of 3.87 but a non-statistically significant trend in incidence in the Girona Cancer Registry database. The incidence of GIST in Girona Cancer Registry was 1.24 cases/100,000 inhabitants/year. Survival rates did not change in time and was high in less aggressive GIST. The 5-year relative survival for low, intermediate and high risk of malignant behaviour GIST groups were, respectively, 80.5, 85.6 and 64.6 %. The increase in the incidence of GIST could be explained by the improvement in their diagnosis and registration. The survival of low and intermediate risk of malignant behaviour is high and close to normal population survival.

To predict the burden of cancer in Catalonia by 2020 assessing changes in demography and cancer risk during 2010–2020. Data were obtained from Tarragona and Girona cancer registries and Catalan mortality registry. Population age distribution was obtained from the Catalan Institute of Statistics. Predicted cases in Catalonia were estimated through autoregressive Bayesian age-period-cohort models. There will be diagnosed 26,455 incident cases among men and 18,345 among women during 2020, which means an increase of 22.5 and 24.5 % comparing with the cancer incidence figures of 2010. In men, the increase of cases (22.5 %) can be partitioned in three components: 12 % due to ageing, 8 % due to increase in population size and 2 % due to cancer risk. In women, the role of each component was 9, 8 and 8 %, respectively. The increased risk is mainly expected to be observed in tobacco-related tumours among women and in colorectal and liver cancers among men. During 2010–2020 a mortality decline is expected in both sexes. The expected increase of cancer incidence, mainly due to tobacco-related tumours in women and colorectal in men, reinforces the need to strengthen smoking prevention and the expansion of early detection of colorectal cancer in Catalonia.

The frequency of interval cancers (IC) can be an indicator inversely related to the quality of a breast screening programme. The objectives were to estimate the frequency of IC, to classify IC by posterior radiological review, and to describe the prognostic factors of these IC. The setting was the Sabadell-Cerdanyola Breast Cancer Screening Programme, in Northeast Spain. We developed a population-based study of the IC occurring in the first three rounds (1995-2001). The indicators used were the incidence rate of invasive IC per 10 000 women screened and the proportional incidence, stratified by age group, type of screening and the round, and the time elapsed since the last screening mammogram. A radiological informed consensus review was used to classify the IC. No specific pattern of incidence rates was evident with respect to age, type of screening, or round, although screening was generally more sensitive in women aged 60-69 years. The proportional incidence for the period 0-11 months was always under 30%. Twenty-one percent of 38 IC evaluated (95% CI: 8.0-34.0) were attributed to errors in the screening process (false negatives). No major differences in the prognostic factors of the 57 IC were identified on examining the radiological type or the time since the last screening mammogram. We observed a high frequency of IC from 12 months after screening. It is necessary to reach a consensus regarding the definition and the analysis of IC and to establish mechanisms that would allow all the malignant tumours diagnosed in the target population to be identified.

Background: Developing effective cancer control programmes requires information on the future cancer burden in an ageing population. In our study we predicted the burden of cancer in Catalonia from 2015 to 2025. Methods: Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to predict the burden of cancer from 2015 to 2025 using incidence data from the Girona and Tarragona cancer registries and cancer mortality data from the Catalan mortality registry. Using the Bashir-Estève method, we divided the net change in the number of cases between 2015 and 2025 into changes due to population size (S), cancer risk (R) and age (A) distribution. Results: By 2025, there will be 21,743 new cancer cases in men (40% aged > 74 years) and 17,268 in women (37% aged > 74 years). More than 40% of the new cases will be diagnosed among population aged 74 and older in prostate, colorectal, lung, bladder, pancreatic and stomach cancers in men, and in colorectal, pancreatic and bladder cancers and leukaemia in women. During 2015-2025, the number of new diagnoses will increase by 5.5% in men (A + R + S = 18.1% − 13.3% + 0.7% = 5.5%) and 11.9% in women (A + R + S = 12.4% − 1.1% + 0.6% = 11.9%). Overall cancer mortality rates will continue to decrease during 2015-2025. Lung cancer will be the most lethal cancer among men (N = 2705) and women (N = 1174). Conclusions: The increase in the number of cancer cases in Catalonia from 2015 to 2025 will mostly affect the elderly, prompting the need for increased collaboration between geriatricians and oncologists.