Search

We study the long-run persistence of relative economic well-being in the face of highly adverse government policies using a combination of rich historical and contemporaneous data sources from Kyrgyzstan. Even after controlling for unobservable local effects, the economic well-being (measured by income, expenditures, or assets) of Kyrgyz households in the 2010s strongly correlates with the early 20th-century average wealth of the tribes from which these households descend. The degree of economic inequality at the tribe level in the 2010s correlates with the within-tribe wealth inequality in the early 20th century. In terms of channels of persistence, we find support for the inter-generational transmission of human capital, relative status, political power, and cultural traits. Transmission of material wealth, differences in natural endowments, or geographic sorting cannot explain the observed long-run persistence., info:eu-repo/semantics/published

This paper investigates the economic returns to language skills and bilingualism. The analysis is staged in Kazakhstan, a multi-ethnic country with complex ethnic settlement patterns that has switched its official state language from Russian to Kazakh. Using two newly assembled data sets, we find negative returns to speaking Kazakh and a negative effect of bilingualism on earnings while Russian was the official state language in the 1990s. Surprisingly, the Kazakh language continues to yield a negative wage premium 13 years after it has been made official state language. While we do neither find evidence for an ethnically segmented labor market nor for reverse causality, the low economic value of the Kazakh language can be explained by the comparatively poor quality of schools with Kazakh as language of instruction. Based on PISA data, we illustrate that scholastic achievements are substantially lower for pupils taught in Kazakh, despite the official support for the titular language. Our results suggest that switching the official state language without appropriate investments in school resources is unlikely to cure the economic disadvantage of a previously marginalized language.

In this paper we analyze economic and spatial determinants of interregional migration in Kazakhstan using quarterly panel data on region to region migration in 2008-2010. In line with traditional economic theory we find that migration is determined by economic factors, first of all income: People are more likely to leave regions where incomes are low and more likely to move to regions with a higher income level. As predicted by gravity arguments, mobility is larger between more populated regions. Furthermore, distance has a strong negative impact on migration, indicating high migration related costs and risks. Assuming that high migration costs are caused by poor infrastructure, investments in public and social infrastructure should facilitate regional income convergence in Kazakhstan and improve living standards in depressed regions.

The paper analyzes unequal regional development in Kazakhstan. Applying the nonlinear least squares method in presence of spatial correlation we estimate the convergence rate of wages across Kazakh regions for the period 2003-2009. The estimated convergence rate is about 3% which is somewhat higher than estimates obtained for the USA and Europe. At the same time there is slight divergence in the GRP per capita. It is argued that convergence in wages which coincides with divergence in the per capita GRP is consistent with the endogenous growth model where profit maximizing firms choose the capital intensity of the technology. This implies that the inequality between regions will only exacerbate and the central government may wish to invest more in low-growth regions to alleviate disproportional development.

In this paper we analyze the determinants of interregional migration in Kazakhstan using quarterly panel data on region to region migration in 2008-2010. To the best of our knowledge this is the first study on interregional population flows in Central Asia. We find that migration is determined by economic factors, first of all income: People are more likely to leave regions where incomes are low and more likely to move to regions with a higher income level. Furthermore, mobility is larger between more populated regions. Distance has a strong negative impact on migration, indicating high migration related costs and risks. Assuming that high migration costs are caused by poor infrastructure, investments in public and social infrastructure should facilitate regional income convergence in Kazakhstan and improve living standards in depressed regions.

We evaluate the effects of different short-term training programs on the employment chances of immigrant and native welfare recipients in Germany. In particular, we investigate whether program effects differ between both groups and what might cause these potential differences. In a first step, we evaluate program effects separately for immigrants and natives using propensity score matching estimators. To explain potential differences in effects between the groups, we suggest and apply a decomposition method based on the matching procedure that allows identification of differences due to observable characteristics and differences related to an immigrant fixed effect in a second step.

Diese Arbeit untersucht die erwerbsfÄahig eingestuften Bezieher von Arbeitslosengeld II, die mindestens einmal Arbeitslosengeld II im dritten Quartal 2006 bezogen haben. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass 16% der Bezieher von Arbeitslosengeld II im dritten Quartal 2006 während des Zeitraums 2000 bis 2005 keine Arbeitslosenhilfe oder Arbeitslosengeld II bezogen. Weiterhin wird untersucht, inwieweit sich der Bezug von Arbeitslosengeld II für Personen, die vorher noch nie Arbeitslosenhilfe oder Arbeitslosengeld II bezogen haben, aus den Prozessdaten der Bundesagentur für Arbeit prognostizieren lässt. Unsere SchÄatzungen ergeben, dass mit den Prozessdaten die höchste prognostizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit neu in den Bezug von Arbeitslosengeld II Personengruppen überzugehen bei 49% liegt. Für den überwiegenden Teil der Stichprobe ergeben sich jedoch weit geringere prognostizierte Übergangswahrscheinlichkeiten. Gleichwohl identifiziert die Analyse wichtige Prädiktoren für den Zugang in Arbeitslosengeld II und damit werden deutliche Unterschiede zwischen verschiedenen Personengruppen im Hinblick auf die Herkunft der Zugänge erkennbar. Beispielsweise kann eine Teilstichprobe von 12% aller Personen ohne bisherigen Arbeitslosenhilfe{ oder Arbeitslosengeld{II{Bezug innerhalb des Zeitraums 2000 bis 2005 in administrativen Daten identifiziert werden, aus der ca. zwei Drittel aller Arbeitslosengeld{II{Zugänge von Männern und ca. 55% aller Arbeitslosengeld{II{Zugänge von Frauen entstammen.

The paper analyzes effects of occupational and regional mobility on the matching rate using the monthly panel disaggregated on regional and occupational level. The main contribution of the paper is measuring the effect of substitutability between vacancies for different occupations and vacancies in different regions on matchings. The estimates indicate higher regional mobility in West Germany but higher occupational mobility in East Germany. The results show that if occupations were perfect substitutes, the number of matches could increase by 5-9%. Perfect regional mobility could increase matchings by 5-15%. It is also shown that partial aggregation causes a downward bias in substitutability estimates.

Immigrants consist of foreigners and citizens with migration background. We analyze the wage gap between natives and these two groups in Germany. The estimates show a substantial gap for both groups with respect to natives. Discarding immigrants who completed education abroad reduces much of the immigrants' wage gap. This implies educational attainment in Germany is an important component of economic integration and degrees obtained abroad are valued less, Working papers series, ISSN 2628-1724, 2008, Heft 19

Immigrants consist of foreigners and citizens with migration background. We analyze the wage gap between natives and these two groups in Germany. The estimates show a substantial gap for both groups with respect to natives. Discarding immigrants who completed education abroad reduces much of the immigrants' wage gap. This implies educational attainment in Germany is an important component of economic integration and degrees obtained abroad are valued less.

Language proficiency may not only affect the earnings of the individual, but the probability to participate in the labor market or becoming employed as well. It may also affect selection of people into economic sector and occupation. In this paper, the effects of language proficiency on earnings are analyzed for foreigners in Germany with joint consideration of up to four types of selection. The results show that language proficiency significantly increases participation and employment probability and affects occupational choice. When selection into economic sector and occupation is regarded, we do not find an impact of language ability on earnings thereby implying an indirect effect.

The dissertation consists of two main parts. The first part presents a search model with non-stationary reservation wages. In the model the reservation wage declines over time and at a certain point is equal to utility of non-participation, after which it is not optimal to search and workers withdraw from the labour market. Thus, the potential time an unemployed may spend looking for a job is the solution to a maximisation problem and is treated in the model not as a random variable but as a choice variable. The potential search time is known at any point in time and it does not depend on whether an unemployed worker finds a job or not, but is observed only if a worker fails to find employment. It is shown that changes in the variables which reduce reservation wages also shorten the potential search time. This establishes a trade-off in the model. On the one hand, lower reservation wages reduce unemployment duration, but on the other hand, agents have shorter spells of active search and hence higher exit rate from unemployment into nonparticipation. The effect of these measures on total employment is ambiguous in the model. Simulations show that there are cases when reduction of the unemployment benefits substantially reduces the potential search time and thereby the job-finding chances when arrival rate is low. The second part presents a stationary search model where unemployed workers may look for jobs in two locations and have an option to change work place retaining their place of residence, i.e. commute. Introduction of commuting possibility into the model produces difference in search intensities and reservation wages in origin and destination, i.e. agent sets different reservation wages for the "local" and "distant" region. Moreover, I allow for arrival rate to be the function of search intensity and therefore unemployed workers receive job offers only in those regions where their search intensity is nonzero. In this setting the maximal acceptable travel distance is determined by the condition of nonzero search intensity. The model shows that the circle of possible commuting destinations is bounded and the maximum distance a worker is willing to commute is determined by exogenous factors in the model. The paper demonstrates that positive commuter flows to a region are conditional on the location of the region within a maximal acceptable commuting distance thereby substantiating the use of "hurdle" models for empirical analysis of commuting. Empirical results based on estimation of the zero-inflated negative binomial model support the theoretical results. The search model necessitates that search intensity and reservation wage depend on dispersion of wages. Therefore, unlike most of the empirical models on commuting and migration I use dispersion parameters of the wage distribution as additional regressors in an econometric specification. It will be shown that if the wage distribution is not symmetric and variance in two tails of the wages distribution can change independently of one another, the implications of the search theory slightly change. Namely, the dispersion in the left tail of the wage distribution reduces reservation wage and search intensity, and the dispersion in the right tail increases reservation wage and search intensity., Die Dissertation besteht aus zwei Teilen. Der erste Teil entwickelt ein Modell mit nicht-stationären Reservationslöhnen. Es wird gezeigt, dass es einen Zeitpunkt gibt, nachdem es nicht mehr optimal weiter nach einem Job zu suchen, und die Suchenden verlassen den Arbeitsmarkt. Die potentielle Dauer, die man mit der Suche nach einem Jobangebot verbringt, ist somit die Lösung des Maximierungsproblems. Weiter wird gezeigt, dass Maßnahmen, die die Arbeitslosigkeit verringern sollten, die Partizipationsrate reduzieren. Der Effekt auf die gesamte Beschäftigung ist somit unbestimmt. Im zweiten Teil wird das stationäre Suchmodell mit Pendeloption präsentiert. Das übliche Ergebnis von Suchtheorien ist, dass der Reservationslohn mit dem so genannten �Mean-Preserving-Spread� (Varianz, die den erwarteten Wert unverändert lässt) steigt. Eine Änderung der Varianz bei konstantem, Mittelwert, d.h. eine symmetrische Kompression oder Streckung der Lohnverteilung an beiden Enden der Verteilung, ist sehr unwahrscheinlich, wenn man mit realen Daten arbeitet. Als alternatives Maß wird der �Median-Preserving-Spread� untersucht, also die Varianz, die den Median unverändert lässt. Es wird gezeigt dass der Reservationslohn mit dem �Median-Preserving-Spread� im oberen Teil der Lohnverteilung steigt und im unteren Teil der Lohnverteilung sinkt. Die empirischen Ergebnisse auf Basis der Daten deutschen Pendlerströme belegen die Befunde des theoretischen Modells.

Less than half of the people with migration background living in Germany possess foreign citizenship. Hence, using citizenship to analyze economic issues of immigration may be problematic for two reasons. On the one hand, a quite substantial share of persons with migration background is neglected in the group of interest, and, on the other hand, the reference group (native Germans) may be contaminated by effects from naturalized immigrants. This paper utilizes a wider definition covering all persons with migration background to analyze the earnings prospects. To shed light on differences to the common use of citizenship, estimates are presented in comparison to foreigner and German citizens. The results show that persons with migration background have similar earnings prospects to foreigners. Moreover, earnings prospects for native Germans do not differ much from those of German citizenship. Therefore, using citizenship to approximate natives and non- natives when analyzing earnings issues seems to be reasonable. A second question of the paper is whether degrees obtained in Germany lead to better earnings prospects compared to degrees obtained abroad for persons with migration background. Independently of gender and skill level, the estimates affirm higher earnings to educational attainment in Germany.

Less than half of the people with migration background living in Germany possess foreign citizenship. Hence, using citizenship to analyze economic issues of immigration may be problematic for two reasons. On the one hand, a quite substantial share of persons with migration background is neglected in the group of interest, and, on the other hand, the reference group (native Germans) may be contaminated by effects from naturalized immigrants. This paper utilizes a wider definition covering all persons with migration background to analyze the earnings prospects. To shed light on differences to the common use of citizenship, estimates are presented in comparison to foreigner and German citizens. The results show that persons with migration background have similar earnings prospects to foreigners. Moreover, earnings prospects for native Germans do not differ much from those of German citizenship. Therefore, using citizenship to approximate natives and non- natives when analyzing earnings issues seems to be reasonable. A second question of the paper is whether degrees obtained in Germany lead to better earnings prospects compared to degrees obtained abroad for persons with migration background. Independently of gender and skill level, the estimates affirm higher earnings to educational attainment in Germany.