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Wave setup is a physical process that induces a temporal increase of the mean water level due to wave dissipation by bottom friction and breaking in the surf zone, extending over tens to hundreds of meters in the cross-shore direction. Wave setup contribution to coastal sea level solely induced by wind and atmospheric effects can increase by more than 100% under extreme events and conditions favoring its formation. It is therefore crucial to consider this phenomenon when assessing sea-level-related coastal hazards. Previous studies estimated the wave setup effect by means of numerical modeling and empirical formulations at regional and global scale. Such analyses require either high computational capacity to implement high-resolution numerical models over large domains, and/or accurate information on coastal morphological features from global or regional databases. Although the Mediterranean Sea is a fetch-limited environment, waves generated from extra-tropical cyclones are powerful enough for wave setup to develop, and subsequently for a potential significant wave setup contribution to extreme coastal sea level. Through the use of both numerical and empirical methods, we investigate the uncertainty associated to wave setup representation on the frequency and magnitude of coastal extreme sea levels occurring on sandy beaches in the Mediterranean Sea. Wave setup values are compared at beach scale between process-based modeling and empirical approaches, showing highly variable results. We also quantify the impact of wave setup on return levels of coastal sea level extremes using reconstructed sea levels. We employ various methods to calculate the wave setup component. Results show high spatial dispersion, with clear differences between the numerical and empirical approaches, especially in regions prone to the development of energetic waves. The total inter-method dispersion of 100-year return levels is often higher than 30 cm for average values of 62.4 cm. We emphasize the important limitations related to wave setup modeling (i.e., its underestimation) at large scale, and call for caution when applying empirical formulations (generally developed from local studies) at regional to global scale, which can lead to unrealistic wave setup values.

Abstract Ecosystems threatened by climate change can boost their resilience by developing spatial patterns. Spatially regular patterns in wave-exposed seagrass meadows are attributed to self-organization, yet underlying mechanisms are not well understood. Here, we show that these patterns could emerge from feedbacks between wave reflection and seagrass-induced bedform growth. We derive a theoretical model for surface waves propagating over a growing seagrass bed. Wave-induced bed shear stress shapes bedforms which, in turn, trigger wave reflection. Numerical simulations show seagrass pattern development once wave forcing exceeds a critical amplitude. In line with Mediterranean Sea field observations, these patterns have half the wavelength of the forcing waves. Our results raise the hypothesis that pattern formation optimizes the potential of seagrass meadows to reflect wave energy, and a clear direction for future field campaigns. If wave-reflecting pattern formation increases ecosystem resilience under globally intensifying wave climates, these ecosystems may inspire nature-based coastal protection measures.

Abstract Shoreline position is a key parameter of a beach state, often used as a descriptor of the response of the system to changes in external forcing, such as sea-level rise. Changes in shoreline position are the result of coupled hydrodynamic and morphodynamic processes happening in the nearshore and acting at different temporal scales. Due to this complexity, methodologies aimed at reproducing shoreline evolution at decadal time scale require many simplifications. Simpler methods usually consider an equilibrium beach profile whose shape depends only on beach morphology, and whose location varies depending on incoming forcing. Here, we derive a general equation for shoreline evolution using equilibrium beach profiles. We particularize it based on several common assumptions, and evaluate changes on shoreline position caused by sea-level rise, combined with simultaneous wave and high-frequency sea-level forcing. We compare our model against other analytical equilibrium beach profile-based models and with a dynamic model explicitly computing sediment transport. Results indicate that: (i) it is necessary to consider the area of the emerged beach subject to marine forcing rather than focusing only on the submerged part, (ii) the rates of shoreline recession may change for narrow beaches, defined as those for which marine forcings act onto all of their aerial surface, and (iii) Bruun’s Rule can describe beach shoreline evolution, but the uncertainty in selecting the landward boundary of the active profile entails a huge uncertainty in the magnitude of shoreline evolution. This problematic uncertainty can be drastically reduced if instantaneous forcing conditions are used instead of the arbitrary emerged/submerged active profile boundaries typically defined by only one statistic parameter of extreme conditions.

Abstract Systematic and sustained high quality measurements of nearshore waves and beach morphology are crucial to understand morphodynamic processes that determine beach evolution, to unravel the effects of global warming on sandy coasts and thus improve forecasting models. In 2011 a comprehensive beach monitoring program, the first in the Mediterranean Sea, started at Cala Millor Beach on the island of Mallorca (Spain). The aim was to provide long-term datasets of near-shore morphodynamics in a carbonate sandy micro-tidal and semi-embayed beach fronted by a Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadow. We present our morphological and hydrodynamical dataset of Cala Millor covering more than a decade. The dataset includes topobathymetries, shoreline positions obtained from video cameras, meteorological parameters from a weather station, currents, as well as waves and sea level from ADCP measurements and sediment size. This free and unrestricted archived dataset can be used to support the modelling of erosion-deposition patterns, calibrate beach evolution models, and as a result to propose adaptation and mitigation actions under different global change scenarios.

The extreme wave height distribution in the Caribbean Sea is studied using a new method based on the maximum basin-wide aggregate of significant wave height, Hs, values per month. Besides, by means of the Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) technique, we identify coherent geographical regions with similar extreme wave height variability in the Caribbean Sea. Our findings revealed three primary regions: the eastern side with comparatively lower values, the central region with intermediate values, and the western side with the highest extreme wave heights. The study also examines the wind forcing conditions driving the spatial and temporal variability of the extreme waves, highlighting the influence of the low-pressure belt dynamics as well as the role played by the Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ) index, and the impact of cold fronts and hurricanes on extreme wave heights. Additionally, we explore the relationship between the extreme wave height distribution and climatic indices, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Oceanic Niño (ONI). The results reveal that the spatial distribution of extreme wave heights in the Caribbean Sea is mostly ruled by the influence of the CLLJ, with correlations close to 80%. In addition, significant correlations were observed between the extreme wave heights and the ENSO in the central Caribbean, as well as positive correlations between the extreme wave heights and NAO in the eastern part of the basin, and significant values of correlation with the negative phases of AMO and AMM in the whole basin. We show that, unlike conventional (or broadly used) methods deployed to identify extreme wave height, such as percentile 99th, Hs99, our methodology allows a further assessment of the wind and climate forcing conditions associated with the extreme wave events. Although, we acknowledge that the method here presented has limitations to capture extreme wave height outliers, it has the advantage of being used concomitant with the wind forcing to develop multivariate wave climate analysis at basin scale, and could be extended to a more local scale when studying coastal processes.

Abstract Diatoms are among the most efficient autotrophic organisms for oceanic primary production and carbon sequestration. Yet, the spatial distributions of these planktonic organisms remain puzzling and the underlying physical processes poorly known, especially in oligotrophic open waters. Here we investigate what dynamical conditions are conducive to episodic diatom blooms in oceanic deserts based on Lagrangian diagnosis and satellite‐derived phytoplankton functional types and currents. The coherence of the flow is diagnosed in space and time simultaneously through the Lagrangian coherence rate (LCR) to identify which dynamical structures favor diatom growth. Observations evidence that flow structures with high LCR (40 days or longer) in areas with elevated eddy kinetic energy and vorticity sustain high diatom concentrations in the sunlit layers. Our findings show that the integration of Eulerian kinematic variables into a Lagrangian frame reveals new dynamical aspects of geophysical turbulence and unveil their biological impacts.

In the Mediterranean Sea, coastal extreme sea levels are mainly caused by storm surges driven by atmospheric pressure and surface winds from extratropical cyclones. In addition, wind-waves generated by the same atmospheric perturbations may also contribute to coastal extremes through wave setup (temporal rise above the mean sea level due to dissipation and breaking of waves in shallow waters close to the shore). This study investigates the spatial and temporal variability of coastal extreme sea levels in the Mediterranean basin, using a new ocean hindcast generated with a coupled hydrodynamic-wave model that simulates storm surges and wind-waves. The numerical simulation covers the period 1950-2021 with high temporal sampling (1h) and at unprecedented spatial resolution for a basin scale analysis, that reaches 200 m along the coastlines. Coastal storm surges and wave heights are validated with available observations (tide gauges, waves buoys and satellites). Comparison against tide gauges shows an average RMSE of 7.5 cm (7.7 cm for extreme events) and mean linear correlation of 0.64 for the whole period. Similarly, comparison of simulated and observed significant wave height shows good agreement, with RMSE lower than 0.25 m and a coefficient correlation as high as 0.95. The results confirm that coastal extreme sea levels are more likely to be located in regions with wide continental shelves favouring the wind contribution to storm surges along with shallow waters that favour wave setup induced by depth-breaking. The contribution of waves to coastal extreme sea levels has been quantified, using the hindcast in combination with an uncoupled simulation and has been shown to be significant, with an assessed wave setup spatial footprint at regional scale and observed maximum sea levels increased by up to 120% in the presence of waves.

Sea-level rise induces a permanent loss of land with widespread ecological and economic impacts, most evident in urban and densely populated areas. Potential coastline retreat combined with waves and storm surges will result in more severe damages for coastal zones, especially over insular systems. In this paper, we quantify the effects of sea-level rise in terms of potential coastal flooding and potential beach erosion, along the coasts of the Balearic Islands (Western Mediterranean Sea), during the twenty-first century. We map projected flooded areas under two climate-change-driven mean sea-level rise scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), together with the impact of an extreme event defined by the 100-year return level of joint storm surges and waves. We quantify shoreline retreat of sandy beaches forced by the sea-level rise (scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and the continuous action of storm surges and waves (modeled by synthetic time series). We estimate touristic recreational services decrease of sandy beaches caused by the obtained shoreline retreat, in monetary terms. According to our calculations, permanent flooding by the end of our century will extend 7.8–27.7 km2 under the RCP4.5 scenario (mean sea-level rise between 32 and 80 cm by 2100), and up to 10.9–36.5 km2 under RCP8.5 (mean sea-level rise between 46 and 103 cm by 2100). Some beaches will lose more than 50% of their surface by the end of the century: 20–50% of them under RCP4.5 scenario and 25–60% under RCP8.5 one. Loss of touristic recreational services could represent a gross domestic product (GDP) loss up to 7.2% with respect to the 2019 GDP.

This article presents a 60 years wave hindcast from 1958 to 2017, covering the Colombian Caribbean basin. Each output consists on 6-hour field of significant wave height Hs, mean wave period Tm−01, Tmm−10 and mean direction θm with a resolution of 11.8 km × 11.4 km. The simulation was performed using SWAN model forced with JRA-55 wind fields. Model data is validated against NOAA buoy 42058 located in the central Caribbean. The resolution and time spam of this database allows to perform either coastal engineering projects as well as to perform research in seasonal and interannual wave climate variability including large return periods to evaluate coastal vulnerability.

The variability of La Guajira upwelling system, in the south-central Caribbean Sea, is strongly influenced by the intensity and location of the atmospheric Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ), a near-surface branch of the easterlies, as well as by the regional ocean circulation. During favorable conditions (i.e., strong easterlies blowing almost parallel to the coast), upwelling is enhanced and a large amount of primary productivity occurs in La Guajira area. In contrast, during relatively mild wind conditions, the CLLJ is misaligned to the coast and the Caribbean Counter Current (CCC, locally also known as the Darien Current), which forms as a branch from the Panama-Colombia Gyre, flows northeastward over the continental shelf advecting waters from the southwestern Caribbean basin toward La Guajira. The CCC has a clear signature at the surface layer that extends from the Darien Gulf toward La Guajira peninsula during mild wind periods, while disappears during the months of strong winds. The direction and the magnitude of the easterlies, and more specifically of the CLLJ, control the position and pathway of the CCC, which extends more than 900 km in the southern Caribbean Sea during May, June, August, September, and October. The high concentration of chlorophyll-a at the sea surface evidenced by satellite-based color images is semi-seasonally modulated by the CLLJ, which during its relaxation phase allows the irruption of the CCC toward the east up to La Guajira.

Abstract Coastal ocean ecosystems are major contributors to the global biogeochemical cycles and biological productivity. Physical factors induced by the turbulent flow play a crucial role in regulating marine ecosystems. However, while large-scale open-ocean dynamics is well described by geostrophy, the role of multiscale transport processes in coastal regions is still poorly understood due to the lack of continuous high-resolution observations. Here, the influence of small-scale dynamics (O(3.5–25) km, i.e. spanning upper submesoscale and mesoscale processes) on surface phytoplankton derived from satellite chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) is studied using Lagrangian metrics computed from High-Frequency Radar currents. The combination of complementary Lagrangian diagnostics, including the Lagrangian divergence along fluid trajectories, provides an improved description of the 3D flow geometry which facilitates the interpretation of two non-exclusive physical mechanisms affecting phytoplankton dynamics and patchiness. Attracting small-scale fronts, unveiled by backwards Lagrangian Coherent Structures, are associated to negative divergence where particles and Chl-a standing stocks cluster. Filaments of positive divergence, representing large accumulated upward vertical velocities and suggesting accrued injection of subsurface nutrients, match areas with large Chl-a concentrations. Our findings demonstrate that an accurate characterization of small-scale transport processes is necessary to comprehend bio-physical interactions in coastal seas.

This work analyzes the coastal impacts of the combined effect of extreme waves and sea level extremes, including surges and projected mean sea level rise in Bocagrande, Cartagena (Colombia). Extreme waves are assessed from a wave reanalysis that are propagated from deep waters to the beach considering the hydrodynamic processes and taking into account the interaction between waves and the coastal elevation within the study area. First, we consider present sea level, storm surges and waves affecting the area. Next, we analyze the effect of sea level rise according to a moderate (RCP4.5) climate change scenario for the 21st century (years 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100). The most pessimistic scenario (year 2100) yields a percentage of flooded area of 97.2%, thus revealing the major threat that represents sea level rise for coastal areas in the Caribbean Sea.

The Mediterranean community represented in this paper is the result of more than 30 years of EU and nationally funded coordination, which has led to key contributions in science concepts and operational initiatives. Together with the establishment of operational services, the community has coordinated with universities, research centers, research infrastructures and private companies to implement advanced multi-platform and integrated observing and forecasting systems that facilitate the advancement of operational services, scientific achievements and mission-oriented innovation. Thus, the community can respond to societal challenges and stakeholders needs, developing a variety of fit-for-purpose services such as the Copernicus Marine Service. The combination of state-of-the-art observations and forecasting provides new opportunities for downstream services in response to the needs of the heavily populated Mediterranean coastal areas and to climate change. The challenge over the next decade is to sustain ocean observations within the research community, to monitor the variability at small scales, e.g., the mesoscale/submesoscale, to resolve the sub-basin/seasonal and inter-annual variability in the circulation, and thus establish the decadal variability, understand and correct the model-associated biases and to enhance model-data integration and ensemble forecasting for uncertainty estimation. Better knowledge and understanding of the level of Mediterranean variability will enable a subsequent evaluation of the impacts and mitigation of the effect of human activities and climate change on the biodiversity and the ecosystem, which will support environmental assessments and decisions. Further challenges include extending the science-based added-value products into societal relevant downstream services and engaging with communities to build initiatives that will contribute to the 2030 Agenda and more specifically to SDG14 and the UN's Decade of Ocean Science for sustainable development, by this contributing to bridge the science-policy gap. The Mediterranean observing and forecasting capacity was built on the basis of community best practices in monitoring and modeling, and can serve as a basis for the development of an integrated global ocean observing system.

Surface currents in the Alboran Sea are characterized by a very fast evolution that is not well captured by altimetric maps due to sampling limitations. On the contrary, satellite infrared measurements provide high resolution synoptic images of the ocean at high temporal rate, allowing to capture the evolution of the flow. The capability of Surface Quasi-Geostrophic (SQG) dynamics to retrieve surface currents from thermal images was evaluated by comparing resulting velocities with in situ observations provided by surface drifters. A difficulty encountered comes from the lack of information about ocean salinity. We propose to exploit the strong relationship between salinity and temperature to identify water masses with distinctive salinity in satellite images and use this information to correct buoyancy. Once corrected, our results show that the SQG approach can retrieve ocean currents slightly better to that of near-real-time currents derived from altimetry in general, but much better in areas badly sampled by altimeters such as the area to the east of the Strait of Gibraltar. Although this area is far from the geostrophic equilibrium, the results show that the good sampling of infrared radiometers allows at least retrieving the direction of ocean currents in this area. The proposed approach can be used in other areas of the ocean for which water masses with distinctive salinity can be identified from satellite observations.

A new approach to infer the bathymetry from coastal video monitoring systems is presented. The methodology uses principal component analysis of the Hilbert transform of video images to obtain the components of the wave propagation field and their corresponding frequency and wavenumber. Incident and reflected constituents and subharmonics components are also found. Local water depth is then successfully estimated through wave dispersion relationship. The method is first applied to monochromatic and polychromatic synthetic wave trains propagated using linear wave theory over an alongshore uniform bathymetry in order to analyze the influence of different parameters on the results. To assess the ability of the approach to infer the bathymetry under more realistic conditions and to explore the influence of other parameters, nonlinear wave propagation is also performed using a fully nonlinear Boussinesq-type model over a complex bathymetry. In the synthetic cases, the relative root mean square error obtained in bathymetry recovery (for water depths 0.75 m ⩽ h ⩽ 8.0 m ) ranges from ∼1% to ∼3% for infinitesimal-amplitude wave cases (monochromatic or polychromatic) to ∼15% in the most complex case (nonlinear polychromatic waves). Finally, the new methodology is satisfactorily validated through a real field site video.

Satellite altimetry is a key component of the global observing system and plays a major role in the study of the mesoscale processes that drive most of the ocean circulation variability at middle and high latitudes. However, satellite altimetry alone provides only surface information at a limited spatio-temporal resolution. To address these limitations and to better describe the mesoscale three-dimensional variability, it is necessary to complement altimetry data with additional remote and in situ measurements. This study provides an update of the recent advances in the study of the mesoscale variability using a combination of altimetry and other independent observations, with an emphasis on the results obtained for the western Mediterranean Sea. The circulation in this area is complex because of the presence of multiple interacting scales, including basin-scale, sub-basin–scale and mesoscale structures. Thus, characterizing these processes requires high-resolution observations and multi-sensor approaches. Accordingly, multi-platform experiments and analyses have been designed and undertaken in the different sub-basins of the western Mediterranean Sea. These studies have demonstrated the advantages of synergetic approaches that use a combination of observation techniques and are able to resolve different spatio-temporal scales with the aim of better understanding mesoscale dynamics.

We studied the influence of the topography on the oceanic response to a traveling atmospheric disturbance and the relevance of its propagation direction on the generation of seiche oscillations. A primitive equation ocean model was used to analyze the response of two harbors located in insular systems to a pressure disturbance. The spectral component at the frequency of fundamental harbor resonance was determined from these data for different propagation directions of the incoming atmospheric disturbance. A conceptual model of interferences of resonantly generated ocean waves was introduced in order to explain energy maxima obtained by the numerical model close to the most affected areas.

This study examines teleconnections between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the wave climate of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea (NWM), defined by the monthly mean significant wave height (SWH) and the 95th percentile significant wave height (95th percentile SWH), in the period ranging from 1958 to 2001. The data analyzed comes from the multidecadal hindcast over Europe carried out during the HIPOCAS project. In order to avoid fictitious cross-correlations, data were prewhitened by fitting a p-order autoregressive model. To split the temporal and spatial variability, an EOF encoding technique was applied to residuals before searching for teleconnections. We found the northwestern Mediterranean wave climate to be influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with an instantaneous response. When the NAO is in its positive phase, positive anomalies in the SWH and the 95th percentile SWH appear in the area between the Balearic Islands, the Gulf of Lions and the Catalonian coast.