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This article focuses on the critical importance of demand estimates for effective planning and decision-making in the railway freight transportation industry. Various departments within transportation companies, including marketing, production, distribution, and finance departments, heavily rely on accurate demand forecasts to make informed decisions. Forecasting demand is a crucial aspect of managing business processes, and the methods for doing this can vary across different industries. The ultimate goal remains consistent—to obtain precise predictions of future demand by analyzing historical data and current environmental factors. In the context of transportation services, accurate demand forecasting is essential for successful operational planning and management of functional areas such as transportation operations, marketing, and finance. The current case study specifically examines the National Company Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), a transport and logistics holding engaged in rail transportation in Kazakhstan. KTZ’s main sources of income are related to freight transportation. The volume of cargo transportation (in tons) and the freight turnover play a significant role in assessing demand and forecasting future revenues from freight traffic. Different techniques for demand forecasting are explored, including qualitative and quantitative methods. Qualitative methods rely on judgments and opinions, while quantitative methods utilize historical data or identify causal relationships between variables. Overall, the present study highlights the critical role of demand forecasting in the railway freight transportation industry and its impact on efficient planning and decision-making processes.

Effective resource planning in railway freight transportation necessitates precise demand forecasting, shaped by a complex array of dynamic variables. In Kazakhstan, the National State-owned Railway Company (KTZ) underwent a transition from traditional expert-based forecasting methods to the application of mathematical models, notably the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Employing historical data spanning from 2012 to 2016, this shift signifies a significant evolution in KTZ's approach to anticipating freight demand.The primary objective of this study is the empirical assessment of the efficacy of the ARIMA model in comparison to conventional qualitative forecasting techniques. Through the analysis of actual data from 2017, utilizing established metrics such as the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), this research substantiates the utility of time series analysis through ARIMA. The findings not only confirm the model's effectiveness but also emphasize its superiority in refining the precision of railway freight demand forecasts, particularly within the unique context of Kazakhstan.Beyond the validation of methodologies, this research serves as a precursor to advanced forecasting practices, offering the potential to redefine resource planning in the railway industry. By extending the predictive horizon to 2024, the manuscript aligns with contemporary standards, providing nuanced insights for operational and developmental considerations in Kazakhstan's railway freight sector. This expansion positions the study within the evolving landscape of the industry, ensuring a comprehensive and forward-looking contribution to efficient resource allocation and modernized planning practices.

Transport is a key factor influencing greenhouse gas emissions. In relation to this, the issues and challenges facing the transport industry were presented. The issues of challenges for the transport industry related to the European Green Deal were discussed. It discussed how the transport system is critical for European companies and global supply chains. The issues related to the exposure of society to costs are presented: greenhouse gas emissions and pollution. The article deals with the issues of managing transport processes in an enterprise. It was decided to raise the topic of fuel consumption in means of transport. Based on a review of the scientific literature, 3 categories of features are indicated: the vehicle characteristics, the driver's characteristics, and the route's impact on fuel consumption. The study is based on actual data from the archives of the GPS vehicle monitoring system. Data was collected on 1890 routes operated between May 30, 2020, and May 31, 2021. The routes were performed by twenty-nine drivers and 8 vehicles. The vehicles are 40-ton road sets consisting of a tractor unit and a semi-trailer. The analysis of factors influencing fuel consumption is presented. The methodology for conducting feature engineering is described. The benefits of using the method of reducing fuel consumption are presented. The possibilities of using the methods of forecasting electricity and hydrogen consumption in various means of transport, including public transport, where indicated. The data is processed using the Pandas library. The models are compared according to the MAE success measure. The application of methods of working with large data sets is presented. The calculations are made with the help of the NumPy library. Data visualization is done with Matplotlib and Seaborn. Scikit-Learn models are used.

TRANSPORT PROBLEMS 2022 Volume 17 Issue 2 PROBLEMY TRANSPORTU DOI: 10.20858/tp.2022.17.2.02 Keywords: negative ions; car ionizer; mathematical modeling; comfort of car passengers Mykola BILIAIEV1 , Oleksandr PSHINKO2 , Tetiana RUSAKOVA 3 *, Viktoriia BILIAIEVA4 , Aleksander SŁADKOWSKI5 MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF THE AEROION MODE IN A CAR Summary. In this study, a mathematical method is proposed for calculating the concentration field of air ions of different polarities and dust levels in the passenger compartment, taking into account the geometry of the passenger compartment and seats, shelves, and other internal elements of the passenger compartment. The method also takes into account changes in the rate of the air flow ventilation, the location and number of ionizers, and sources of positive ions and dust, taking into account their different intensities and locations. On the basis of a numerical model for this method, software has been developed that allows users to carry out computational experiments without requiring much time for calculation. Based on the results, the optimal location of the ionizer in the passenger compartment of the car was determined to ensure comfortable conditions for the stay of passengers, which favorably affects their health. It has been found that the presence of two ionizers is optimal for creating comfort in the car with an ionization intensity of Qn = 0,47 × (10)^10 ions/s located at the top of the car. If there is one ionizer located on the dashboard or at the top of the car with a higher ionization rate than Qn = 0,21 × (10)^11 ions/s, it is not possible to simultaneously provide optimal ionization parameters for passengers in the front and rear seats of the car.

In this study, a numerical model is proposed for calculating pollution zones near the road, taking into account the geometry of the automobile transport, meteorological conditions, the location of the barriersand their height, and the chemical transformation of nitrogen oxides in the atmospheric air.The numerical solution is based on the integration of the mass transfer equations using the finite-difference method. To determine the components of the air flow velocity vector, a two-dimensional model of the potential flow is used, where the Laplace equation for the velocity potential isthemodeling equation.Based on this numerical model, a software package has been developed that allows computational experiments and does not require large expenditures of computer time. Based on the results obtained, an assessment was made of the effectiveness of the use of barriersto reduce the level of air pollution near highways. It has been established that the use of barriersof different heights reduces thelevel of pollution behind the road by approximately20-50%.

In this study, the methodological foundations of the technology for the local reduction of chemical pollution from vehicles were improvedthrough the use of two-level suction units and guide plates of various lengths installed on the nozzles of the suction devices. A program has been developed for the numerical calculation of the carbon monoxide concentration field for evaluating the efficiency of using two-level exhaust systems with different lengths of guide plates on the gas flow selection pipes. The solution of the equations of hydrodynamics and mass transfer is carried out on the basis of finite-difference methods. A number of physical and computational experiments have been carried out; it has been established that the concentration of carbon monoxide in the zone of two-level suctions location decreases by 46-68%.

The article deals with the stress-strain state of the cutters used in the mills of a new design for the restoration of the working surfaces of locomotive wheels. A comparative analysis of stresses in the cutterswascarried out using the finite element method,whichshowed a significant advantage of the new technical solution, the novelty of which is confirmed by the patent.

The current state of the regional market of transport and logistics services in Kazakhstan is characterized by a disparity between the increasing demand for logistics services and the lack of logistics capacity. In this article, the authors propose a method for determining the most promising areas of the Republic of Kazakhstan for the construction of a logistics center, based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP).

The interaction of the two kind activities of the Faculty of Transport of the Silesian University of Technology, namely the international conference and scientific journal, which have the same name "Transport Problems", is considered. It is proved that such interaction is very useful for transport scientists of different countries and serves a platform for information exchange and discussion of the most pressing problems of the transport industry. Changes that have occurred in this activity lately are being discussed.

The analysis of biological resources for biofuels production in Ukraine has been carried out, and it has been shown that usage of alternative energy sources has great potential for substantially improving energy supply of the state and solving environmental problems. The directions of development and new technologies of obtaining motor fuels from biomass are systematized. It has been established that usage of different types of biofuels and their mixtures for feeding internal combustion engines involves application of modified engines in terms of structure and algorithms and usage of traditional designs of cars without significant structural changes. Moreover, the impact of biofuels on the efficient operation of the engine requires further integrated research.

This article analyses the train traffic control systems in 1435 mm and 1520 mm gauge railways. The article analyses the aspects of train traffic control and locomotive energy saving by using the coordinates of track profile change that have been received from GPS. In the article, achievements of Lithuanian railways (LG) in the area of train traffic control optimisation are presented.

The article investigates causes and conditions of downtime of automobile and excavator complex in iron ore open mines in the structure of the multi-type fleet of dump trucks. The formulas for determining the downtime trucks of different carrying capacity allocated to a single excavator. In this article will find out the regularities of formation wasting time waiting at the loading multi-type structure of the park trucks.

In underground mining of solid minerals becoming increasingly common development system with stowing hardening mixtures. In this case the natural ore array after it is replaced by an artificial excavation of solidified filling mixture consisting of binder, aggregates and water. Such a mixture is prepared on the surface on special stowing complexes and transported underground at special stowing pipelines. However, it is transported to the horizons of a few kilometers, which requires a sustainable mode of motion of such a mixture in the pipeline. Hardening stowing mixture changes its rheological characteristics over time, which complicates the calculation of the parameters of pipeline transportation. The article suggests a method of determining the initial parameters of such mixtures: the status coefficient, indicator of transportability, coefficient of hydrodynamic resistance to motion of the mixture. These indicators characterize the mixture in terms of the possibility to transport it through pipes. On the basis of these indicators is proposed methodology for calculating the parameters of pipeline transport hardening filling mixtures in drift mode when traffic on the horizontal part of the mixture under pressure column of the mixture in the vertical part of the backfill of the pipeline. This technique allows stable operation is guaranteed to provide pipeline transportation.

This paper presents an attempt of numerical description of the active vibration isolation system of railway passenger car. Computer simulations were performed for different speeds of the passenger car riding along the same track. Formal basis to solve the formulated research problem was achieved by using the law and the principles of mechanics and control theory. Model results clearly indicate that the use of active vibration reduction systems in rail transport can significantly increase comfort

The article is concerned with the applicability of the robotic transportation complex of automotive barrows for haulage transportation along various transport routes of mining enterprises. The simultaneous application of robotic transport and telemetry links makes the door-to-door transportation possible, i.e. direct transportation from the starting to the final point avoiding intermediate storage and a considerable part of auxiliary equipment.

Rail is the one of the highly underused form of freight transportation in the European Union. Majority of the freightage are distributed by trucks and HGVs. With new regulations and socio-environmental concerns urban logistics is facing a new challenge which can be tackled using innovative transport mechanisms and streamline operations. This article sheds light on a system which integrates freight distribution via metro lines in the closest vicinity of the customer, use of council warehouses and further innovative transport mechanisms for final delivery. This system uses existing infrastructure effectively without impacting its surroundings and triggers the reduction of polluting carriers. This system offers the option of immediate implementation which will enable EU to compete with a global freight distribution market.

At present there are two trends in the market of rail freight transportation in Russia: freight owners put forward higher demands to the transportation quality (promptness of delivery) in an effort to reduce storage costs by means of reducing the size of freight shipment; the structure of railcar traffic volume of the railways of Russia is getting more complex due to the reduction of the average shipment size and due to the transfer of railcar fleet ownership to a large number of operating companies. These trends significantly complicate operational management supervision of railway stations and transport nodes. Application of typical data from the information system about the railcar location at the transportation node is not enough for the dispatchers to make the best decision concerning the car traffic management. The dispatcher traffic control service needs some software-based models of efficient railcar distribution. The article is concerned with the description and development of the mathematical model of empty railcar distribution for loading at the railway transport node; this model will take into account the requirements of railcar owners in terms of their cars application, the operating work level of railroad stations of the transportation node and the possibility of adding the groups of empty railcars to the transfer trains, clean-up trains and industrial railway trains operating on a tight schedule. The developed model and the software package were implemented in the information system of the industrial railway of the major metallurgical enterprise - OJSC «Magnitogorsk Metallurgical Works», which processes up to two thousand of railcars belonging to different owners. This model made it possible to reduce the labour intensity of dispatcher operation planning the empty railcar distribution for loading and reduce the total time the railcars spend in the enterprise railway system.

The paper presents assessment of the impact of the processes handling efficiency on the transport process based on research done in the real object, using same technologies and material handling equipment. The aim of the paper was to confirm importance of loading and unloading processes of palletized cargo as an initial and final link of multimodal transport by developing methods’ proposal for monitoring and assessing the effectiveness of cargo operations as well as development of measures and comparison estimators. The analysis of the manipulation operations’ duration throughout the transport process is based on the percentile rates of manipulation and carriage in total transport process duration and the percentage of manipulating time in the duration of the carriage. These indicators and examined loading and unloading times, are the basis for the development of scheduling algorithms for optimizing transport processes on the scale of the whole transport chain. This data is also a helpful input to support strategic decisions on the allocation of financial resources for the development of infrastructure and terminal equipment, warehouses and other facilities.

In the paper the method is proposed of substantiation of the major parameters for zones of effective use of automobile transport of different load-carrying capacity by open cast development of the deep deposits. An efficient ratio is determined between the mining and transport equipment by zone-to -zone use.

In the article was found the causes defects vulcanized joints based on analysis of operating of conveyor belts, given the physical and mathematical model of failure joints. Measures have been developed to improve the reliability of the joints of conveyor belts.

The authors of this document are aiming to substantiate the advantages of en-route mechanical activation technology as aids for railroad transportation of viscous oil and oil products in tank cars. The conceptual design implies the use of momentum generated by brake action. This document also contains preliminary data of laboratory research confirming the validity of the developed concept.

The history of creation of the journal «Transport Problems» is considered. Main principles of the publication of scientific papers in the journal are stated. Development of scientific contacts of experts, which were united by journal, and formation of the International Scientific Conference «Transport Problems» is described.

Rail fastenings are one of basic elements of the top structure of a track. Elastic pads are the important element of the rail fastenings. Definition of their elastic characteristics is necessary for the subsequent studying of the dynamic interaction between the track and the rolling stock.

VIII International Scientific Conference “Telematics, Logistics and Transport Safety” was carried out in Katowice and Cieszyn from 16th to 18th of October 2008. Scientists from 12 countries, who have sent 59 papers, have taken part in its work. All materials of conference have been published in proceedings of the conference.

Main load in operation of flexible coupling in a drive system isconcentrated on elastomer part. The paper presents modeling of contact operation of the hub claws and elastomer teeth in a single insert flexible coupling ASR type.

Determining the size and quality of transport needs would not be possible without adequate forecasting based on the sales volume or demand for this service from the past periods. Traditional forecasting methods use econometric models that may be subject to serious errors. The use of the methods taking into account the variability of the studied phenomena or more advanced mathematical methods enables to minimize the error. Various methods of artificial intelligence such as a neural network, fuzzy sets, genetic algorithms, etc., have been recently successfully applied. The aim of this paper is to compare three forecasting methods that can be used for predicting the volume of road freight. The article deals with the effectiveness of three prediction methods, namely Winter's method for seasonal problems – a multiplicative version, harmonic analysis and harmonic analysis aided by the artificial immune system. The effectiveness of prediction was counted using MAPE errors (main average percentage error). The results of calculations were compared and the best example was presented.