Search

Recent advances in Bayesian phylogenetics offer substantial computational savings to accommodate increased genomic sampling that challenges traditional inference methods. In this review, we begin with a brief summary of the Bayesian phylogenetic framework, and then conceptualize a variety of methods to improve posterior approximations via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. Specifically, we discuss methods to improve the speed of likelihood calculations, reduce MCMC burn-in, and generate better MCMC proposals. We apply several of these techniques to study the evolution of HIV virulence along a 1536-tip phylogeny and estimate the internal node heights of a 1000-tip SARS-CoV-2 phylogenetic tree in order to illustrate the speed-up of such analyses using current state-of-the-art approaches. We conclude our review with a discussion of promising alternatives to MCMC that approximate the phylogenetic posterior. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Genomic population structures of microbial pathogens'. ispartof: PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES vol:377 issue:1861 ispartof: location:England status: published

The work highlights the problems of economic risk management in a territorial context. The purpose of the study is to substantiate the strategic management of economic risks in a territorial context, based on the development of a mechanism of criteria that can give a generalized assessment of the results of risk situations, based on consideration of the variability of the development of the territorial economy. When assessing risks, special attention is paid to the economic results of the consequences of their occurrence for the objectivity of strategic planning. The materials studied on various approaches to risk assessment show the economic category, while there is a functional connection between social and economic processes. The calculation technology itself requires improvement, which consists in creating a mechanism for generalizing indicators, concentrating them in a territorial context. Most likely, when developing a strategy for the development of the economy of a territory, it will be necessary to consider the variability of events that involve the occurrence of risks, providing an objective assessment of risks when making management decisions. The scientific novelty of the study is to justify the development of a mechanism for assessing the risks of the territorial economy, based on the relationship between the consolidation of risk analysis indicators and the effectiveness of the development of socio-economic processes, while comparing various options for the forecast effect. As a result of the study, the problems of assessing the strategic management of economic risks in the territorial context made it possible to develop generalized indicators characterizing risk events.

Background: The adoption of spleen-preserving distal pancreatectomy (SPDP) for malignant disease such as pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (pNETs) has been controversial. The objective of the current study was to assess the impact of SPDP on outcomes of patients with pNETs. Methods: Patients undergoing a distal pancreatectomy for pNET between 2002 and 2016 were identified in the US Neuroendocrine Tumor Study Group database. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to compare short- and long-term outcomes of patients undergoing SPDP versus distal pancreatectomy with splenectomy (DPS). Results: Among 621 patients, 103 patients (16.6%) underwent an SPDP. Patients who underwent SPDP were more likely to have lower BMI (median, 27.5 [IQR 24.0–31.2] vs. 28.7 [IQR 25.7–33.6]; p = 0.005) and have undergone minimally invasive surgery (n = 56, 54.4% vs. n = 185, 35.7%; p < 0.001). After PSM, while the median total number of lymph nodes examined among patients who underwent an SPDP was lower compared with DPS (3 [IQR 1–8] vs. 9 [5–13]; p < 0.001), 5-year overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were comparable (OS: 96.8 vs. 92.0%, log-rank p = 0.21, RFS: 91.1 vs. 84.7%, log-rank p = 0.93). In addition, patients undergoing SPDP had less intraoperative blood loss (median, 100 mL [IQR 10–250] vs. 150 mL [IQR 100–400]; p = 0.001), lower incidence of serious complications (n = 13, 12.8% vs. n = 28, 27.5%; p = 0.014), and shorter length of stay (median: 5 days [IQR 4–7] vs. 6 days [IQR 5–13]; p = 0.049) compared with patients undergoing DPS. Conclusion: SPDP for pNET was associated with acceptable perioperative and long-term outcomes that were comparable to DPS. SPDP should be considered for patients with pNET.

Background To define recurrence patterns and time course, as well as risk factors associated with recurrence following curative resection of pNETs. Method Patients who underwent curative-intent resection for pNET between 1997 and 2016 were identified from the US Neuroendocrine Tumor Study Group. Data on baseline and tumor-specific characteristics, overall survival (OS), timing and first-site of recurrence, predictors and recurrence management were analyzed. Results Among 1020 patients, 154 (15.1%) patients developed recurrence. Among patients who experienced recurrence, 76 (49.4%) had liver-only recurrence, while 35 (22.7%) had pancreas-only recurrence. The proportion of liver-only recurrence increased from 54.3% within one-year after surgery to 61.5% from four-to-six years after surgery; whereas the proportion of pancreas-only recurrence decreased from 26.1% to 7.7% over these time periods. While liver-only recurrence was associated with tumor characteristics, pancreas-only recurrence was only associated with surgical margin status. Patients undergoing curative resection of recurrence had comparable OS with patients who had no recurrence (median OS, pancreas-only recurrence, 133.9 months; liver-only recurrence, not attained; no recurrence, 143.0 months, p = 0.499) Conclusions Different recurrence patterns and timing course, as well as risk factors suggest biological heterogeneity of pNET recurrence. A personalized approach to postoperative surveillance and treatment of recurrence disease should be considered.

Studies have demonstrated that multimodality therapy and surgery at high volume centers are associated with a longer survival. However, it is unknown if these data have translated into national changes in care delivery. Patients with stages I–III pancreatic adenocarcinomas who underwent resections between 2004 and 2010 were identified from the National Cancer Data Base. The primary outcome was a 3-year overall survival. Temporal trends in survival outcomes and treatment variables were measured. A mediation analysis using the Lin method was used to discern the relative contribution of changes in treatment variables towards improvements in survival over time. A total of 22,196 patients were identified. Between 2004 and 2010, a 90-day peri-operative mortality remained unchanged (8.5 % to 8.4 %, p = 0.488), 3-year overall survival improved from 26 to 30% (p 10 cases/year in 2004 vs. 65 % in 2010, p

Gastric carcinoids are rare neuroendocrine tumors of the gastrointestinal tract. They are typically managed according to their etiology. However, there is little known about the impact of surgical strategy on the long-term outcomes of these patients.All patients who underwent resection of gastric carcinoids at 8 institutions from 2000 to 2016 were analyzed retrospectively. Tumors were stratified according to subtype (I, II, III, IV) and resection type (local resection, LR or formal gastrectomy, FG). Clinicopathological parameters, recurrence-free (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were compared between groups.Of 79 patients identified with gastric carcinoids, 34 had type I lesions associated with atrophic gastritis, 4 had type II lesions associated with a gastrinoma, 37 had type III sporadic lesions, and 4 had type IV poorly-differentiated lesions. The mean age of presentation was 56 years in predominantly Caucasian (77%) and female (63%) patients. Mean tumor size was 2.4 cm and multifocal tumors were found in 24 (30%) of patients with the majority occurring in those with type I tumors. Lymph node positive tumors were seen in 15 (19%) patients and 7 (8%) had M1 disease; both most often in type IV followed by type III tumors. R0 resection was achieved in 56 (71%) patients while 15 (19%) had R1 resections and 6 (8%) R2 resections. Patients with type I and III tumors were equally likely to have a LR (50% and 43% respectively) compared to FG while those with type II and IV all had FG with one exception. Type IV tumors had the poorest RFS and OS while Type II tumors had the most favorable RFS and OS (p 0.04 and p 0.0004, respectively). While there was no difference in RFS in those patients undergoing FG versus LR, OS was worse in the FG group (p 0.017). This trend persisted when type II and type IV groups were excluded (p 0.045).Gastric carcinoid treatment should be tailored to tumor type, as biologic behavior rather than resection technique is the more important factor contributing to long-term outcomes.

Background The impact of margin status on resection of primary pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors has been poorly defined. The objectives of the present study were to determine the impact of margin status on long-term survival of patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors after curative resection and evaluate the impact of reresection to obtain a microscopically negative margin. Methods Patients who underwent curative-intent resection for pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors between 2000 and 2016 were identified at 8 hepatobiliary centers. Overall and recurrence-free survival were analyzed relative to surgical margin status using univariable and multivariable analyses. Results Among 1,020 patients, 866 (84.9%) had an R0 (>1 mm margin) resection, whereas 154 (15.1%) had an R1 (≤1 mm margin) resection. R1 resection was associated with a worse recurrence-free survival (10-year recurrence-free survival, R1 47.3% vs R0 62.8%, hazard ratio 1.8, 95% confidence interval 1.2–2.7, P = .002); residual tumor at either the transection margin (R1t) or the mobilization margin (R1m) was associated with increased recurrence versus R0 (R1t versus R0: hazard ratio 1.8, 95% confidence interval 1.0–3.0, P = .033; R1m versus R0: hazard ratio 1.3, 95% confidence interval 1.0–1.7, P = .060). In contrast, margin status was not associated with overall survival (10-year overall survival, R1 71.1% vs R0 71.8%, P = .392). Intraoperatively, 539 (53.6%) patients had frozen section evaluation of the surgical margin; 49 (9.1%) patients had a positive margin on frozen section analysis; 38 of the 49 patients (77.6%) had reresection, and a final R0 (secondary R0) margin was achieved in 30 patients (78.9%). Extending resection to achieve an R0 status remained associated with worse overall survival (hazard ratio 3.1, 95% confidence interval 1.6–6.2, P = .001) and recurrence-free survival (hazard ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4–5.0, P = .004) compared with primary R0 resection. On multivariable analyses, tumor-specific factors, such as cellular differentiation, perineural invasion, Ki-67 index, and major vascular invasion, rather than surgical margin, were associated with long-term outcomes. Conclusion Margin status was not associated with long-term survival. The reresection of an initially positive surgical margin to achieve a negative margin did not improve the outcome of patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors. Parenchymal-sparing pancreatic procedures for pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors may be appropriate when feasible.

BACKGROUND: The incidence, clinical characteristics, and long-term outcomes of patients with gastroenteropancreatic neuroendrocrine tumors and carcinoid syndrome undergoing operative resection have not been well characterized. METHODS: Patients undergoing resection of primary or metastatic gastroenteropancreatic neuroendrocrine tumors between 2000 and 2016 were identified from an 8-institution collaborative database. Clinicopathologic and postoperative characteristics as well as overall survival and disease-free survival were compared among patients with and without carcinoid syndrome. RESULTS: Among 2,182 patients who underwent resection, 139 (6.4%) had preoperative carcinoid syndrome. Patients with carcinoid syndrome were more likely to have midgut primary tumors (44.6% vs 21.4%, P < .001), lymph node metastasis (63.4% vs 44.3%, P < .001), and metastatic disease (62.8% vs 26.7%, P < .001). There was no difference in tumor differentiation, grade, or Ki67 status. Perioperative carcinoid crisis was rare (1.6% vs 0%, P < .01), and the presence of preoperative carcinoid syndrome was not associated with postoperative morbidity (38.8% vs 45.5%, P = .129). Substantial symptom improvement was reported in 59.5% of patients who underwent curative-intent resection, but occurred in only 22.7% who underwent debulking. Despite an association on univariate analysis (P = .04), carcinoid syndrome was not independently associated with disease-free survival after controlling for confounding factors (hazard ratio 0.97, 95% confidence interval 0.64–1.45). Preoperative carcinoid syndrome was not associated with overall survival on univariate or multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Among patients undergoing operative resection of gastroenteropancreatic neuroendrocrine tumors, the prevalence of preoperative carcinoid syndrome was low. Although operative intervention with resection or especially debulking in patients with carcinoid syndrome was disappointing and often failed to improve symptoms, after controlling for markers of tumor burden, carcinoid syndrome was not independently associated with worse disease-free survival or overall survival.

INTRO: Chromogranin A (CgA) may be prognostic for patients with neuroendocrine tumors; however, the clinical utility of this test is unclear. METHODS: Patients undergoing resection for pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (pNET) were selected from the eight institutions of the US Neuroendocrine Tumor Study Group database. Cox regression was used to identify pre-operative variables that predicted recurrence-free survival (RFS), and those with p < 0.1 were included in a risk score. The risk score was tested in a unique subset of the overall cohort. RESULTS: In the entire cohort of 287 patients, median follow-up time was 37 months, and 5-year RFS was 73%. Cox regression analysis identified four variables for inclusion in the risk score: CgA > 5x ULN (HR 4.3, p = 0.01), tumor grade 2/3 (HR 3.7, p = 0.01), resection for recurrent disease (HR 6.2, p < 0.01), and tumor size > 4 cm (HR 4.5, p = 0.1). Each variable was assigned 1 point. Risk-score testing in the unique validation cohort of 63 patients revealed a 95% negative predictive value for recurrence in patients with zero points. DISCUSSION: This simple pre-operative risk scoring system resulted in a high degree of specificity for identifying patients at low-risk for tumor recurrence. This test can be utilized pre-operatively to aid informed decision-making.

Background Transitional care protocols are effective at reducing readmission for medical patients, yet no evidence-based protocols exist for surgical patients. A transitional care protocol was adapted to meet the needs of patients discharged to home after major abdominal surgery. Approach The Coordinated-Transitional Care (C-TraC) protocol, initially designed for medical patients, was used as the initial framework for the development of a surgery-specific protocol (sC-TraC). Adaptation was accomplished using a modification of the Replicating Effective Programs (REP) model, which has four phases: (1) preconditions, (2) preimplementation, (3) implementation, and (4) maintenance and evolution. A random sample of five patients each month was selected to complete a phone survey regarding patient satisfaction. Preimplementation planning allowed for integration with current systems, avoided duplication of processes, and defined goals for the protocol. The adapted protocol specifically addressed surgical issues such as nutrition, fever, ostomy output, dehydration, drain character/output, and wound appearance. After protocol launch, the rapid iterative adaptation process led to changes in phone call timing, inclusion and exclusion criteria, and discharge instructions. Outcomes Survey responders reported 100% overall satisfaction with the transitional care program. Key Insights The adaptable nature of sC-TraC may allow for low-resource hospitals, such as rural or inner-city medical centers, to use the methodology provided in this study for implementation of local phone-based transitional care protocols. In addition, as the C-TraC program has begun to disseminate nationally across US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) hospitals and rural health settings, sC-TraC may be implemented using the existing transitional care infrastructure in place at these hospitals.

Relaxed random walk (RRW) models of trait evolution introduce branch-specific rate multipliers to modulate the variance of a standard Brownian diffusion process along a phylogeny and more accurately model overdispersed biological data. Increased taxonomic sampling challenges inference under RRWs as the number of unknown parameters grows with the number of taxa. To solve this problem, we present a scalable method to efficiently fit RRWs and infer this branch-specific variation in a Bayesian framework. We develop a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampler to approximate the high-dimensional, correlated posterior that exploits a closed-form evaluation of the gradient of the trait data log-likelihood with respect to all branch-rate multipliers simultaneously. Our gradient calculation achieves computational complexity that scales only linearly with the number of taxa under study. We compare the efficiency of our HMC sampler to the previously standard univariable Metropolis-Hastings approach while studying the spatial emergence of the West Nile virus in North America in the early 2000s. Our method achieves at least a 6-fold speed increase over the univariable approach. Additionally, we demonstrate the scalability of our method by applying the RRW to study the correlation between five mammalian life history traits in a phylogenetic tree with $3650$ tips.[Bayesian inference; BEAST; Hamiltonian Monte Carlo; life history; phylodynamics, relaxed random walk.]. ispartof: SYSTEMATIC BIOLOGY vol:70 issue:2 pages:258-267 ispartof: location:England status: published

Background: Pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) or distal pancreatectomy (DP) are common procedures for patients with a pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor (pNET). Nevertheless, certain patients may benefit from a pancreas-preserving resection such as enucleation (EN). The aim of this study was to define the indications and differences in long-term outcomes among patients undergoing EN and PD/DP. Methods: Patients undergoing resection of a pNET between 1992 and 2016 were identified. Indications and outcomes were evaluated, and propensity score matching (PSM) analysis was performed to compare long-term outcomes between patients who underwent EN versus PD/DP. Results: Among 1034 patients, 143 (13.8%) underwent EN, 304 (29.4%) PD, and 587 (56.8%) DP. Indications for EN were small size (1.5 cm, IQR:1.0–1.9), functional tumors (58.0%) that were mainly insulinomas (51.7%). After PSM (n = 109 per group), incidence of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) grade B/C was higher after EN (24.5%) compared with PD/DP (14.0%) (p = 0.049). Median recurrence-free survival (RFS) was comparable among patients who underwent EN (47 months, 95% CI:23–71) versus PD/DP (37 months, 95% CI: 33–47, p = 0.480). Conclusion: Comparable long-term outcomes were noted among patients who underwent EN versus PD/DP for pNET. The incidence of clinically significant POPF was higher after EN.

OBJECTIVE: To improve the prognostic accuracy of the eighth edition of AJCC staging system for pNETs with establishment and validation of a new staging system. BACKGROUND: Validation of the updated eighth AJCC staging system for pNETs has been limited and controversial. METHODS: Data from the SEER registry (1975–2016) (n = 3303) and a multi-institutional database (2000–2016) (n = 825) was used as development and validation cohorts, respectively. A mTNM was proposed by maintaining the eighth AJCC T and M definitions, and the recently proposed N status as N0 (noLNM), N1 (1–3 LNM), and N2 (≥4 LNM), but adopting a new stage classification. RESULTS: The eighth TNM staging system failed to stratify patients with stage I versus IIA, stage IIB versus IIIA, and overall stage I versus II relative to long-term OS in both database. There was a monotonic decrement in survival based on the proposed mTNM staging classification among patients derived from both the SEER (5-year OS, stage I 87.0% vs stage II 80.3% vs stage III 72.9% vs stage IV 57.2%, all P < 0.001), and multi-institutional (5-year OS, stage I 97.6% vs stage II 82.7% vs stage III 78.4% vs stage IV 50.0%, all P < 0.05) datasets. On multivariable analysis, mTNM staging remained strongly associated with prognosis, as the hazard of death incrementally increased with each stage among patients in the 2 cohorts. CONCLUSION: A mTNM pNETs clinical staging system using N0, N1, N2 nodal categories was better at stratifying patients relative to long-term OS than the eighth AJCC staging.

Computational analyses of pathogen genomes are increasingly used to unravel the dispersal history and transmission dynamics of epidemics. Here, we show how to go beyond historical reconstructions and use spatially-explicit phylogeographic and phylodynamic approaches to formally test epidemiological hypotheses. We illustrate our approach by focusing on the West Nile virus (WNV) spread in North America that has substantially impacted public, veterinary, and wildlife health. We apply an analytical workflow to a comprehensive WNV genome collection to test the impact of environmental factors on the dispersal of viral lineages and on viral population genetic diversity through time. We find that WNV lineages tend to disperse faster in areas with higher temperatures and we identify temporal variation in temperature as a main predictor of viral genetic diversity through time. By contrasting inference with simulation, we find no evidence for viral lineages to preferentially circulate within the same migratory bird flyway, suggesting a substantial role for non-migratory birds or mosquito dispersal along the longitudinal gradient., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Background:There are unmet needs in objective prognostic indicators for Hip Fracture (HF) outcomes.Objectives:To evaluate the determinants and prognostic impact of elevated serum urea, a key factor of nitrogen homeostasis, in predicting hospital mortality, inflammatory complications and length of stay in HF patients.Methods:In 1819 patients (mean age 82.8±8.1 years; 76.4% women) with osteoporotic HF, serum urea level at admission along with 22 clinical and 35 laboratory variables were analysed and outcomes recorded. The results were validated in a cohort of 455 HF patients (age 82.1±8.0 years, 72.1% women).Results:Elevated serum urea levels (>7.5mmol/L) at admission were prevalent (44%), independently determined by chronic kidney disease, history of myocardial infarction, anaemia, hyperparathyroidism, advanced age and male gender, and significantly associated with higher mortality (9.4% vs. 3.3%, p20 days: 31.2% vs. 26.2%, p=0.021). The predictive value of urea was superior to other risk factors, most of which lost their discriminative ability when urea levels were normal. Patients with two abnormal parameters at admission, compared to subjects with the normal ones, had 3.6-5.6 -fold higher risk for hospital mortality, 2.7-7.8-fold increase in risk for HPIR and 1.3-1.7-fold higher risk for prolonged hospital stay. Patients with increased admission urea and a high inflammatory response had 9.7 times greater mortality odds compared to patients without such characteristics.Conclusion:In hip fracture patients admission serum urea is an independent and valuable predictor of hospital outcomes, in particular, mortality.

Accurate global forecasting of marine nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions requires a better understanding of atmospheric N2O fluxes from coastal systems, particularly the mechanisms controlling the net balance between N2O production and consumption. The objective of this study was to examine how physical and biological processes in the eutrophic Chesapeake Bay estuary influence the temporal and spatial variability of N2O using a combination of gas measurements (N2O and N2/Ar) and stable isotope tracer incubations. Observed concentrations of N2O varied considerably in both space and time with the highest concentrations (up to 20.9 nM) across the pycnocline. Ammonia oxidation rates ranged from 14.3 to 108.9 nM h−1 and were highest following wind events that mixed oxygenated surface water below the pycnocline into ammonium-rich bottom waters, resulting in nitrite (NO2−) accumulations of up to 13 μM. During periods of weak vertical mixing, both N2O concentrations and ammonia oxidation rates were lower, while lower O2 concentrations also allowed N2O consumption by denitrification. A three-layer box model provided estimates of N2O production at the surface and across the pycnocline of 4 μmol m−2 day−1 and 21 μmol m−2 day−1, respectively, and an estimate of N2O consumption below the pycnocline of approximately −3 μmol m−2 day−1. Our results demonstrate that physical processes affect the net balance between N2O production and consumption, making Chesapeake Bay a variable source and sink for N2O.

Many surgeons advocate the use of neoadjuvant treatment for resectable pancreatic cancer, however little is known about variation in the utilization of neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) at the hospital level.The National Cancer Data Base was used to identify patients undergoing resection for pancreatic cancer between 2006 and 2014 at high-volume centers. Hospitals were grouped by NAT utilization using standard deviations (SD) from the mean as follows: high neoadjuvant utilizers ( 2 SDs above the mean, 40% of patients receiving NAT); medium-high (1-2 SDs, 27-40%), medium (0-1 SD, 14-26%); or low (- 1.1 to 0 SDs, 14%). Overall survival (OS) was compared across NAT utilization groups.Among 107 high-volume centers, 20,119 patients underwent resection. The proportion of patients receiving NAT varied widely among hospitals, ranging from 0 to 74%, with only five centers using NAT in 40% of patients. These five hospitals had the longest median OS at 28.9 months, compared with 21.1 months for low neoadjuvant utilizers (p 0.001). On multivariable analysis, high and medium-high NAT utilization predicted improved OS, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.56-0.83, p 0.001) and 0.80 (95% CI 0.68-0.95, p = 0.010), respectively, compared with low utilizers. After excluding patients who underwent NAT, there remained an association of improved OS with high NAT utilization (HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.60-0.93, p = 0.009).High-volume hospitals that more commonly utilize NAT demonstrated longer survival for all patients treated at those centers. In addition to altering patient selection for surgery, high neoadjuvant utilization may be a marker of institutional factors that contribute to improved outcomes.

Observations of turbulent kinetic energy, dissipation, and turbulent stress were collected in the middle reaches of Chesapeake Bay and were used to assess second-moment closure predictions of turbulence generated beneath breaking waves. Dissipation scaling indicates that the turbulent flow structure observed during a 10-day wind event was dominated by a three-layer response that consisted of 1) a wave transport layer, 2) a surface log layer, and 3) a tidal, bottom boundary layer limited by stable stratification. Below the wave transport layer, turbulent mixing was limited by stable stratification. Within the wave transport layer, where dissipation was balanced by a divergence in the vertical turbulent kinetic energy flux, the eddy viscosity was significantly underestimated by second-moment turbulence closure models, suggesting that breaking waves homogenized the mixed surface layer to a greater extent than the simple model of TKE diffusing away from a source at the surface. While the turbulent transport of TKE occurred largely downgradient, the intermittent downward sweeps of momentum generated by breaking waves occurred largely independent of the mean shear. The underprediction of stress in the wave transport layer by second-moment closures was likely due to the inability of the eddy viscosity model to capture the nonlocal turbulent transport of the momentum flux beneath breaking waves. Finally, the authors hypothesize that large-scale coherent turbulent eddies played a significant role in transporting momentum generated near the surface to depth.

BACKGROUND: The risk of recurrence for patients undergoing curative-intent surgery for non-metastatic gastro-entero-pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (GEP-NET) is currently poorly defined. We sought to develop and validate a nomogram to predict the risk of recurrence after curative-intent resection. METHODS: Using a pseudo-randomization technique, a training set to develop a predictive nomogram and a test set to validate the nomogram were identified. The predictive ability of the nomogram to predict recurrence was assessed using the c-index. RESULTS: Among 1,477 patients, 673 (46%) patients were included in the training set and 804 (54%) patients were included in the test set to validate the nomogram. On multivariable analysis, Ki-67, tumor size, nodal status, and invasion of adjacent organs were independent predictors of DFS. The risk of death increased by 8% for each percentage increase in the Ki-67 index (HR 1.08, 95% CI, 1.05–1.10; p3 lymph node metastasis had a 2.5-fold increased risk of death (HR 2.51, 95% CI, 1.50–4.24; p80%, which correlated with disease free-survival at 10-year of 87%, 68%, 37%, and 0%, respectively. CONCLUSION: A nomogram based on four variables (i.e. Ki-67, tumor size, invasion of adjacent organs and lymph node status) was able to predict the risk of recurrence after surgery for GEP-NET. The nomogram demonstrated a good ability to identify patients at risk of recurrence and can be easily applied in the clinical setting.

Background Poor-quality transitions of care from hospital to home contribute to high rates of readmission after complex abdominal surgery. The Coordinated Transitional Care (C-TraC) program improved readmission rates in medical patients, but evidence-based surgical transitional care protocols are lacking. This pilot study evaluated the feasibility and preliminary effectiveness of an adapted surgical C-TraC protocol. Study Design The intervention includes in-person enrollment of patients. Follow-up protocolized phone calls by specially trained surgical C-TraC nurses addressed medication management, clinic appointments, operation-specific concerns, and identification of red-flag symptoms. Enrollment criteria included pancreatectomy, gastrectomy, operative small bowel obstruction or perforation, ostomy, discharge with a drain, in-hospital complication, and clinician discretion. Engaged patients participated in the first phone call, which was within 48 to 72 hours of discharge and continued every 3 to 4 days. Patients completed the program once they and surgical C-TraC nurse agreed that no additional follow-up was needed or the patient was readmitted. Results Two hundred and twelve patients were enrolled, October 2015 through April 2016, with a mean age of 56 years (range 19 to 89 years); 33% of patients were 65 years or older. Surgery sites included colon (46%), small bowel (16%), pancreas (12%), multivisceral (9%), liver (4.5%), retroperitoneum/soft tissue (4.5%), gastric (4%), biliary (2%), and appendix (1.5%). Refusal rate was 1% and engagement was 95%. At initial call, 47% of patients had at least 1 medication discrepancy (range 0 to 6). Mean number of calls from provider to patient was 3.2 (range 0 to 20, median 3). Conclusions A phone-based transitional care protocol for surgical patients is feasible, with

Alexander Fisher,1–3 Wichat Srikusalanukul,1 Leon Fisher,4 Paul N Smith2,3 1Department of Geriatric Medicine, The Canberra Hospital, ACT Health, Canberra, Australia; 2Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, The Canberra Hospital, ACT Health, Canberra, Australia; 3Australian National University Medical School, Canberra, ACT, Australia; 4Department of Gastroenterology, Frankston Hospital, Peninsula Health, Melbourne, Australia Purpose: To estimate the discriminative value of serum P1NP/βCTX ratio and albumin levels in hospitalized orthogeriatric patients with and without nonvertebral fractures. Methods: In 1,239 orthogeriatric patients (mean age 78.1±9.52 years, 69.1% women) including 854 (68.9%) with osteoporotic nonvertebral fractures (455 [36.7%] with hip fracture [HF]) and 385 (31.1%) without fractures, markers of bone formation (procollagen type 1 N-terminal propeptide [P1NP], osteocalcin [OC], and bone resorption (beta-C-terminal cross-linking telopeptide of type 1 collagen [βCTX]), indices of mineral metabolism, and parameters of liver and renal functions were assessed; data on clinical and laboratory characteristics were collected prospectively. Results: Both lower serum P1NP/βCTX ratio and albumin concentration (as continuous or categorical variables) were independently associated with fracture presence in multivariate logistic regressions. Compared with the highest P1NP/βCTX tertile, the prevalence of HF, after adjustment for multiple covariates, was 3-fold higher in the lowest tertile and 1.5 times higher in the middle tertile; presence of any fracture was 2.3- and 1.6-fold higher, respectively; patients with albumin levels in the lowest tertile had multivariate odds ratio (OR) of 4.6 for HF and 2.8 for any fracture, in the middle tertile the ORs were 2.2 and 1.3, respectively. The P1NP/βCTX

This narrative review summarises the benefits, risks and appropriate use of acid-suppressing drugs (ASDs), proton pump inhibitors and histamine-2 receptor antagonists, advocating a rationale balanced and individualised approach aimed to minimise any serious adverse consequences. It focuses on current controversies on the potential of ASDs to contribute to infections-bacterial, parasitic, fungal, protozoan and viral, particularly in the elderly, comprehensively and critically discusses the growing body of observational literature linking ASD use to a variety of enteric, respiratory, skin and systemic infectious diseases and complications (Clostridium difficile diarrhoea, pneumonia, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, septicaemia and other). The proposed pathogenic mechanisms of ASD-associated infections (related and unrelated to the inhibition of gastric acid secretion, alterations of the gut microbiome and immunity), and drug-drug interactions are also described. Both probiotics use and correcting vitamin D status may have a significant protective effect decreasing the incidence of ASD-associated infections, especially in the elderly. Despite the limitations of the existing data, the importance of individualised therapy and caution in long-term ASD use considering the balance of benefits and potential harms, factors that may predispose to and actions that may prevent/attenuate adverse effects is evident. A six-step practical algorithm for ASD therapy based on the best available evidence is presented.

The role of routine lymphadenectomy in the surgical treatment of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (pNET) remains poorly defined. The objective of the current study was to investigate trends in the number of lymph nodes (LN) evaluated for pNET treatment at a nationwide level.Patients undergoing surgery for pNET between 2000 and 2016 were identified in the U.S. Neuroendocrine Tumor Study Group (US-NETSG) database as well as the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The number of LNs examined was evaluated over time.The median number of evaluated LNs increased roughly fourfold over the study period (US-NETSG, 2000: 3 LNs vs. 2016: 13 LNs; SEER, 2000: 3 LNs vs. 2016: 11 LNs, both p 0.001). While no difference in 5-year OS and RFS was noted among patients who had 1-3 lymph node metastases (LNM) vs. ≥ 4 LNM between 2000-2007 (OS 73.5% vs. 69.9%, p = 0.12; RFS: 64.9% vs. 40.1%, p = 0.39), patients who underwent resection and LN evaluation during the period 2008-2016 had an incrementally worse survival if the patient had node negative disease, 1-3 LNM and ≥ 4 LNM (OS 86.8% vs. 82.7% vs. 74.9%, p 0.001; RFS: 86.3% vs. 64.7% vs. 50.4%, p 0.001). On multivariable analysis, a more recent year of diagnosis, pancreatic head tumor location, and tumor size 2 cm were associated with 12 or more LNs evaluated in both US-NETSG and SEER databases.The number of LNs examined nearly quadrupled over the last decade. The increased number of LNs examined suggested a growing adoption of the AJCC staging manual recommendations regarding LN evaluation in the treatment of pNET.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the prognostic role of metastatic lymph node (LN) number and the minimal number of LNs for optimal staging of patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (pNETs). BACKGROUND: Prognosis relative to number of LN metastasis (LNM), and minimal number of LNs needed to evaluate for accurate staging, have been poorly defined for pNETs. METHODS: Number of LNM and total number of LN evaluated (TNLE) were assessed relative to recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) in a multi-institutional database. External validation was performed using Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) registry. RESULTS: Among 854 patients who underwent resection, 233 (27.3%) had at least 1 LNM. Patients with 1, 2, or 3 LNM had a comparable worse RFS versus patients with no nodal metastasis (5-year RFS, 1 LNM 65.6%, 2 LNM 68.2%, 3 LNM 63.2% vs 0 LNM 82.6%; all P < 0.001). In contrast, patients with ≥4 LNM (proposed N2) had a worse RFS versus patients who either had 1 to 3 LNM (proposed N1) or node-negative disease (5-year RFS, ≥4 LNM 43.5% vs 1–3 LNM 66.3%, 0 LNM 82.6%; all P < 0.05) [C-statistics area under the curve (AUC) 0.650]. TNLE ≥8 had the highest discriminatory power relative to RFS (AUC 0.713) and OS (AUC 0.726) among patients who had 1 to 3 LNM, and patients who had ≥4 LNM in the multi-institutional and SEER database (n = 2764). CONCLUSIONS: Regional lymphadenectomy of at least 8 lymph nodes was necessary to stage patients accurately. The proposed nodal staging of N0, N1, and N2 optimally staged patients.

This paper proposes an ethnomusicological approach to Djibril Diop Mambéty’s films as a means of reading their diverse musical soundscapes. Paying particular attention to Touki Bouki (1974), it demonstrates how this approach delineates what may be seen as a reclamation of Josephine Baker—an international figure who has been objectified for her race and gender—resituating her within a wider global African cultural heritage.

BACKGROUND: To investigate the feasibility of Tumor Burden Score (TBS) to predict tumor recurrence following curative-intent resection of non-functional pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (NF-pNETs). METHOD: The TBS cut-off values were determined by a statistical tool, X-tile. The influence of TBS on recurrence-free survival (RFS) was examined. RESULTS: Among 842 NF-pNETs patients, there was an incremental worsening of RFS as the TBS increased (5-year RFS, low, medium, and high TBS: 92.0%, 73.3%, and 59.3%, respectively; P < 0.001). TBS (AUC 0.74) out-performed both maximum tumor size (AUC 0.65) and number of tumors (AUC 0.5) to predict RFS (TBS vs. maximum tumor size, p = 0.05; TBS vs. number of tumors, p < 0.01). The impact of margin (low TBS: R0 80.4% vs. R1 71.9%, p = 0.01 vs. medium TBS: R0 55.8% vs. R1 37.5%, p = 0.67 vs. high TBS: R0 31.9% vs. R1 12.0%, p = 0.11) and nodal (5-year RFS, low TBS: N0 94.9% vs. N1 68.4%, p < 0.01 vs. medium TBS: N0 81.8% vs. N1 55.4%, p < 0.01 vs. high TBS: N0 58.0% vs. N1 54.2%, p = 0.15) status on 5-year RFS outcomes disappeared among patients who had higher TBS. CONCLUSIONS: TBS was strongly associated with risk of recurrence and outperformed both tumor size and number alone.

Background Malignant gastric outlet obstruction (GOO) is managed with palliative surgical bypass or endoscopic stenting. Limited data exist on differences in cost and outcomes. Methods Patients with malignant GOO undergoing palliative gastrojejunostomy (GJ) or endoscopic stent (ES) were identified between 2012 and 2015 using the MarketScan® Database. Median costs (payments) for the index procedure and 90-day readmissions and re-intervention were calculated. Frequency of treatment failure—defined as repeat surgery, stenting, or gastrostomy tube—was measured. Results A total of 327 patients were included: 193 underwent GJ and 134 underwent ES. Compared to GJ, stenting resulted in lower total median payments for the index hospitalization and procedure-related 90-day readmissions ($18,500 ES vs. $37,200 GJ, p = 0.032). For patients treated with ES, 25 (19%) required a re-intervention for treatment-failure, compared to 18 (9%) patients who underwent GJ (p = 0.010). On multivariable analysis, stenting remained significantly associated with need for secondary re-intervention compared to GJ (HR for ES 2.0 [1.1–3.8], p 0.028). Conclusion In patients with malignant GOO, endoscopic stenting results in significant 90-day cost saving, however was associated with twice the rate of secondary intervention. The decision for surgical bypass versus endoscopic stenting should consider patient prognosis, anticipated cost, and likelihood of needing re-intervention.

Studies have demonstrated that multimodality therapy and surgery at high volume centers are associated with a longer survival. However, it is unknown if these data have translated into national changes in care delivery.Patients with stages I-III pancreatic adenocarcinomas who underwent resections between 2004 and 2010 were identified from the National Cancer Data Base. The primary outcome was a 3-year overall survival. Temporal trends in survival outcomes and treatment variables were measured. A mediation analysis using the Lin method was used to discern the relative contribution of changes in treatment variables towards improvements in survival over time.A total of 22,196 patients were identified. Between 2004 and 2010, a 90-day peri-operative mortality remained unchanged (8.5 % to 8.4 %, p = 0.488), 3-year overall survival improved from 26 to 30% (p 0.001), use of adjuvant/neoadjuvant chemotherapy increased (51 % to 61 %, p 0.001), and more cases shifted to high volume centers (46 % at institutions performing 10 cases/year in 2004 vs. 65 % in 2010, p 0.001). On multivariable analysis, 32 % of the improvement in survival over time was attributable to receipt of chemotherapy, while 12 % was due to the shift of patients towards high volume centers (p 0.001).Over the period from 2004 to 2010, a 3-year survival increased for patients undergoing resection for pancreatic cancer. This survival improvement can be partially attributed to the increasing utilization of chemotherapy and centralization of surgical care at high volume centers. A continued emphasis on these factors will likely result in further prolongation of a survival following resection.

While pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is the most common form of pancreatic cancer, many other histologic forms of pancreatic cancer are also recognized. These histologic variants portray unique characteristics in terms of patient demographics, tumor behavior, survival, and responsiveness to treatments. Patients who underwent surgical resection of the pancreas for non-metastatic, invasive pancreatic cancer between 2004 and 2014 were selected from the National Cancer Data Base and categorized by histologic variant according to WHO classification guidelines. Patient demographics, tumor variables, treatment characteristics, and survival were compared between histologic groups and subgroups. A total of 57,804 patients met inclusion and exclusion criteria and were grouped into eight major histologic categories. Survival analysis by the histologic group showed median overall survival of 20.2 months for ductal adenocarcinoma, 20.5 months for squamous cell carcinoma, 26.8 months for mixed acinar-neuroendocrine carcinomas, 52.6 months for cystic mucinous neoplasms with an associated invasive carcinoma, 67.5 months for acinar cell carcinoma, and 69.3 months for mesenchymal tumors. Median survival was not reached for neuroendocrine tumors and solid-pseudopapillary neoplasms, with 5-year overall survival rates of 84% and 97% respectively. Rare subtypes of pancreatic cancer present unique clinicopathologic characteristics and display distinct tumor biologies. This study presents data on demographic, prognostic, treatment, and survival outcomes between rare forms of pancreatic neoplasms in order to aid understanding of the natural history and behavior of these neoplasms, with the hope of serving as a reference in clinical decision-making and ability to provide accurate prognostic information to patients.

Simple Summary Approximately 30% of patients with a pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor (pNET) will develop metastases. Curative-intent treatment largely involves resection. Identifying patients with early recurrence (ER) following resection might help tailor adjuvant therapies and the surveillance intensity. The aim of this retrospective study was to determine an evidence-based cut-off value for ER, and to explore risk factors associated with ER. ER was identified 18 months after surgery. Tumor size (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.05–1.37, p = 0.007) and positive lymph nodes (OR 4.69, 95%CI 1.41–15.58, p = 0.01) were independently associated with ER. Patients with ER had lower post-recurrence free survival and overall survival than patients with late recurrence. These data support intensive follow-up shortly after surgery, and adjuvant therapy may help improve survival in pNET patients with ER after surgery. Abstract Background: Identifying patients at risk for early recurrence (ER) following resection for pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (pNETs) might help to tailor adjuvant therapies and surveillance intensity in the post-operative setting. Methods: Patients undergoing surgical resection for pNETs between 1998–2018 were identified using a multi-institutional database. Using a minimum p-value approach, optimal cut-off value of recurrence-free survival (RFS) was determined based on the difference in post-recurrence survival (PRS). Risk factors for early recurrence were identified. Results: Among 807 patients who underwent curative-intent resection for pNETs, the optimal length of RFS to define ER was identified at 18 months (lowest p-value of 0.019). Median RFS was 11.0 months (95% 8.5–12.60) among ER patients (n = 49) versus 41.0 months (95% CI: 35.0–45.9) among non-ER patients (n = 77). Median PRS was worse among ER patients compared with non-ER patients (42.6 months vs. 81.5 months, p = 0.04). On multivariable analysis, tumor size (OR: 1.20, 95% CI: 1.05–1.37, p = 0.007) and positive lymph nodes (OR: 4.69, 95% CI: 1.41–15.58, p = 0.01) were independently associated with ER. Conclusion: An evidence-based cut-off value for ER after surgery for pNET was defined at 18 months. These data emphasized the importance of close follow-up in the first two years after surgery.

A long-standing problem in maritime operations and ocean development projects has been the prediction of instantaneous wave energy. Wave measurements collected using an array of freely drifting arrays of Surface Wave Instrument Float with Tracking (SWIFT) buoys are used to test methods for phase-resolved wave prediction in a wide range of observed sea states. Using a linear inverse model in directionally-rich, broadbanded wave fields can improve instantaneous heave predictions by an average of 63% relative to statistical forecasts based on wave spectra. Numerical simulations of a Gaussian sea, seeded with synthetic buoys, were used to supplement observations and characterize the spatiotemporal extent of reconstruction accuracy. Observations and numerical results agree well with theoretical deterministic prediction zones proposed in previous studies and suggest that the phase-resolved forecast horizon is between 1–3 average wave periods for a maximum measurement interval of 10 wave periods for ocean wave fields observed during the experiment. Prediction accuracy is dependent on the geometry and duration of the measurements and is discussed in the context of the nonlinearity and bandwidth of incident wave fields.

The present essay considers the Jesuits’ relationship to musical culture along the confessional frontier of Germany, where the immediate presence of religious difference led to an explicit marking of space and boundaries, not least through visual and aural media. While Jesuit reservations concerning the appropriate use of music were always present, individual churches and colleges soon developed ambitious musical practices aimed at embellishing the Catholic liturgy and stimulating religious affect. The present essay traces a gradual shift in Jesuit attitudes toward music between roughly 1580 and 1650, showing steady growth in the Society’s use of musical resources in churches, colleges, hymnbooks, processions, and theatrical productions in the confessionally-contested German orbit.

Measurements just beneath the ocean surface demonstrate that the primary mechanism by which energy from breaking waves is transmitted into the water column is through the work done by the covariance of turbulent pressure and velocity fluctuations. The convergence in the vertical transport of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) balances the dissipation rate of TKE at first order and is nearly an order of magnitude greater than the sum of the integrated Eulerian and Stokes shear production. The measured TKE transport is consistent with a simple conceptual model that assumes roughly half of the surface flux of TKE by wave breaking is transmitted to depths greater than the significant wave height. During conditions when breaking waves are inferred, the direction of momentum flux is more aligned with the direction of wave propagation than with the wind direction. Both the energy and momentum fluxes occur at frequencies much lower than the wave band, consistent with the time scales associated with wave breaking. The largest instantaneous values of momentum flux are associated with strong downward vertical velocity perturbations, in contrast to the pressure work, which is associated with strong drops in pressure and upward vertical velocity perturbations.

Aim: To investigate the association of the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) at admission with presence of fracture, comorbid conditions, and its prognostic value for short-term outcomes in orthogeriatric patients. Methods: On 415 consecutive patients (mean age 78.8 ±8.7[SD] years, 281 women, 255 with a non-vertebral bone fracture, including 167 with a hip fracture, HF) admitted to the Department of Orthopaedic Surgery at the Canberra hospital (2010 - 2011) data on clinical and laboratory characteristics were collected prospectively. The validation dataset included 294 consecutive patients (mean age 82.1 ± 8.0 years, 72.1% women) with HF. Results: Multivariate regression revealed four variables, presence of HF, hypoalbuminaemia (6.8 pmol/L), as independent determinants of admission NLR≥5.1. There was a dose-graded relationship between presence of fracture, especially HF, postoperative complications and levels of NLR categorized as tertiles. Compared to patients with NLR100mg/L after the 3rd postoperative day), respectively, while in subjects with NLR>8.5 (third tertile) these risks were 2.6-, 4.9-, 5.9- and 4.5-times higher, respectively; subjects with NLR>8.5 had a 9.7 times higher chance of dying in the hospital compared to patients with NLR 5.1-8.5; the NLR retained its significance on multivariate analyses. The NLR ≥5.1 predicted postoperative myocardial injury with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.626, CRP>100mg/L with AUC of 0.631 and the NLR >8.5 predicted in-hospital mortality with an AUC of 0.793, showing moderately high sensitivity (86.7%, 80% and 90%, respectively) and negative predictive value (92.9%, 71.2%, 99.6%, respectively), but low specificity. Admission NLR was superior to other, except hypoalbuminaemia, prognostic markers; combined use of both NLR≥5.1 and albumin

Osteoporosis (OP) and osteoporotic fractures (OFs) are common multifactorial and heterogenic disorders of increasing incidence. Helicobacter pylori (H.p.) colonizes the stomach approximately in half of the world’s population, causes gastroduodenal diseases and is prevalent in numerous extra-digestive diseases known to be associated with OP/OF. The studies regarding relationship between H.p. infection (HPI) and OP/OFs are inconsistent. The current review summarizes the relevant literature on the potential role of HPI in OP, falls and OFs and highlights the reasons for controversies in the publications. In the first section, after a brief overview of HPI biological features, we analyze the studies evaluating the association of HPI and bone status. The second part includes data on the prevalence of OP/OFs in HPI-induced gastroduodenal diseases (peptic ulcer, chronic/atrophic gastritis and cancer) and the effects of acid-suppressive drugs. In the next section, we discuss the possible contribution of HPI-associated extra-digestive diseases and medications to OP/OF, focusing on conditions affecting both bone homeostasis and predisposing to falls. In the last section, we describe clinical implications of accumulated data on HPI as a co-factor of OP/OF and present a feasible five-step algorithm for OP/OF risk assessment and management in regard to HPI, emphasizing the importance of an integrative (but differentiated) holistic approach. Increased awareness about the consequences of HPI linked to OP/OF can aid early detection and management. Further research on the HPI–OP/OF relationship is needed to close current knowledge gaps and improve clinical management of both OP/OF and HPI-related disorders.