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Food systems and the communities they support are increasingly challenged by climate change and the need to arrest escalating threats through mitigation and adaptation. To ensure climate change mitigation strategies can be implemented effectively and to support substantial gains in greenhouse gas emissions reduction, it is, therefore, valuable to understand where climate-smart strategies might be used for best effect. We assessed mariculture in 171 coastal countries for vulnerabilities to climate change (12 indicators) and opportunities to deliver climate mitigation outcomes (nine indicators). We identified Northern America and Europe as having comparatively lower regional vulnerability and higher opportunity for impact on climate mitigation. Australia, Canada, France, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, New Zealand, Norway and the United States of America were identified as well-positioned to advance strategies linked to mariculture. However, the nature of vulnerabilities and opportunities within and between all regions and countries varied, due to the formation of existing mariculture, human development factors and governance capacity. Our analysis demonstrates that global discussion will be valuable to motivating climate-smart approaches associated with mariculture, but to ensure these solutions contribute to a resilient future, for industry, ecosystems and communities, local adaptation will be needed to address constraints and to leverage local prospects. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Nurturing resilient marine ecosystems’.

Aquaculture is a critical food source for the world's growing population, producing 52% of the aquatic animal products consumed. Marine aquaculture (mariculture) generates 37.5% of this production and 97% of the world's seaweed harvest. Mariculture products may offer a climate-friendly, high-protein food source, because they often have lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emission footprints than do the equivalent products farmed on land. However, sustainable intensification of low-emissions mariculture is key to maintaining a low GHG footprint as production scales up to meet future demand. We examine the major GHG sources and carbon sinks associated with fed finfish, macroalgae and bivalve mariculture, and the factors influencing variability across sectors. We highlight knowledge gaps and provide recommendations for GHG emissions reductions and carbon storage, including accounting for interactions between mariculture operations and surrounding marine ecosystems. By linking the provision of maricultured products to GHG abatement opportunities, we can advance climate-friendly practices that generate sustainable environmental, social, and economic outcomes.

Human activities put stress on our oceans and with a growing global population, the impact is increasing. Stressors rarely act in isolation, with the majority of marine areas being impacted by multiple, concurrent stressors. Marine spatial cumulative impact assessments attempt to estimate the collective impact of multiple stressors on marine environments. However, this is difficult given how stressors interact with one another, and the variable response of ecosystems. As a result, assumptions and generalisations are required when attempting to model cumulative impacts. One fundamental assumption of the most commonly applied, semi-quantitative cumulative impact assessment method is that a change in modelled cumulative impact is correlated with a change in ecosystem condition. However, this assumption has rarely been validated with empirical data. We tested this assumption using a case study of seagrass in a large, inverse estuary in South Australia (Spencer Gulf). We compared three different seagrass condition indices, based on survey data collected in the field, to scores from a spatial cumulative impact model for the study area. One condition index showed no relationship with cumulative impact, whilst the other two indices had very small, negative relationships with cumulative impact. These results suggest that one of the most commonly used methods for assessing cumulative impacts on marine systems is not robust enough to accurately reflect the effect of multiple stressors on seagrasses; possibly due to the number and generality of assumptions involved in the approach. Future methods should acknowledge the complex relationships between stressors, and the impact these relationships can have on ecosystems. This outcome highlights the need for greater evaluation of cumulative impact assessment outputs and the need for data-driven approaches. Our results are a caution for marine scientists and resource managers who may rely on spatial cumulative impact assessment outputs for informing policy and decision-making.

International audience; Predictive models are central to many scientific disciplines and vital for informing management in a rapidly changing world. However, limited understanding of the accuracy and precision of models transferred to novel conditions (their 'trans-ferability') undermines confidence in their predictions. Here, 50 experts identified priority knowledge gaps which, if filled, will most improve model transfers. These are summarized into six technical and six fundamental challenges, which underlie the combined need to intensify research on the determinants of ecological predictability, including species traits and data quality, and develop best practices for transferring models. Of high importance is the identification of a widely applicable set of transferability metrics, with appropriate tools to quantify the sources and impacts of prediction uncertainty under novel conditions. Predicting the Unknown Predictions facilitate the formulation of quantitative, testable hypotheses that can be refined and validated empirically [1]. Predictive models have thus become ubiquitous in numerous scientific disciplines, including ecology [2], where they provide means for mapping species distributions, explaining population trends, or quantifying the risks of biological invasions and disease outbreaks (e.g., [3,4]). The practical value of predictive models in supporting policy and decision making has therefore grown rapidly (Box 1) [5]. With that has come an increasing desire to predict (see Glossary) the state of ecological features (e.g., species, habitats) and our likely impacts upon them [5], prompting a shift from explanatory models to anticipatory predictions [2]. However, in many situations, severe data deficiencies preclude the development of specific models, and the collection of new data can be prohibitively costly or simply impossible [6]. It is in this context that interest in transferable models (i.e., those that can be legitimately projected beyond the spatial and temporal bounds of their underlying data [7]) has grown. Transferred models must balance the tradeoff between estimation and prediction bias and variance (homogenization versus nontransferability, sensu [8]). Ultimately, models that can Highlights Models transferred to novel conditions could provide predictions in data-poor scenarios, contributing to more informed management decisions.

© The Author(s) 2018., Intraspecific plant functional trait variation provides mechanistic insight into persistence and can infer population adaptive capacity. However, most studies explore intraspecific trait variation in systems where geographic and environmental distances co-vary. Such a design reduces the certainty of trait–environment associations, and it is imperative for studies that make trait–environment associations be conducted in systems where environmental distance varies independently of geographic distance. Here we explored trait variation in such a system, and aimed to: (i) quantify trait variation of parent and offspring generations, and associate this variation to parental environments; (ii) determine the traits which best explain population differences; (iii) compare parent and offspring trait–trait relationships. We characterized 15 plant functional traits in eight populations of a shrub with a maximum separation ca. 100 km. Populations differed markedly in aridity and elevation, and environmental distance varied independently of geographic distance. We measured traits in parent populations collected in the field, as well as their offspring reared in greenhouse conditions. Parent traits regularly associated with their environment. These associations were largely lost in the offspring generation, indicating considerable phenotypic plasticity. An ordination of parent traits showed clear structure with strong influence of leaf area, specific leaf area, stomatal traits, isotope δ13C and δ15N ratios, and Narea, whereas the offspring ordination was less structured. Parent trait–trait correlations were in line with expectations from the leaf economic spectrum. We show considerable trait plasticity in the woody shrub over microgeographic scales (, This work was supported by Australian Research Council funding (DE150100542 awarded to M.F.B.; DP150103414 awarded to M.F.B. and A.J.L.), and a Thomas Davies Research Fund grant from the Australian Academy of Science to M.F.B. (grant number 201408410176).

We studied a native Australian shrub—Dodonaea viscosa, or sticky hop bush—in the wild and in a gardening experiment and found that the species can readily adapt to different environments. Our findings are interesting because the plants we used came from sites with quite different environmental conditions, although they were only short distances apart. Our findings indicate that the potential risks associated with moving plants between sites with different environmental conditions are not likely to cause negative outcomes for restoration projects using this species, which is commonly used for restoration in southern Australia., Intraspecific plant functional trait variation provides mechanistic insight into persistence and can infer population adaptive capacity. However, most studies explore intraspecific trait variation in systems where geographic and environmental distances co-vary. Such a design reduces the certainty of trait–environment associations, and it is imperative for studies that make trait–environment associations be conducted in systems where environmental distance varies independently of geographic distance. Here we explored trait variation in such a system, and aimed to: (i) quantify trait variation of parent and offspring generations, and associate this variation to parental environments; (ii) determine the traits which best explain population differences; (iii) compare parent and offspring trait–trait relationships. We characterized 15 plant functional traits in eight populations of a shrub with a maximum separation ca. 100 km. Populations differed markedly in aridity and elevation, and environmental distance varied independently of geographic distance. We measured traits in parent populations collected in the field, as well as their offspring reared in greenhouse conditions. Parent traits regularly associated with their environment. These associations were largely lost in the offspring generation, indicating considerable phenotypic plasticity. An ordination of parent traits showed clear structure with strong influence of leaf area, specific leaf area, stomatal traits, isotope δ13C and δ15N ratios, and Narea, whereas the offspring ordination was less structured. Parent trait–trait correlations were in line with expectations from the leaf economic spectrum. We show considerable trait plasticity in the woody shrub over microgeographic scales (

Model transferability is an emerging and important branch of predictive science that has grown primarily from a need to produce ecological forecasts in the face of widespread data deficiency and escalating environmental novelty. In our recent article in Trends in Ecology and Evolution, we outlined some of the major roadblocks that currently undermine the practice of model transfers in ecology. The response of Radchuk et al. to our work stresses the value of considering ‘first principles’ in projections of ecosystem change and offers insights into outstanding challenges specific to mechanistic (synonym: process-based) models.

Understanding the spatial distribution of human impacts on marine environments is necessary for maintaining healthy ecosystems and supporting ‘blue economies’. Realistic assessments of impact must consider the cumulative impacts of multiple, coincident threats and the differing vulnerabilities of ecosystems to these threats. Expert knowledge is often used to assess impact in marine ecosystems because empirical data are lacking; however, this introduces uncertainty into the results. As part of a spatial cumulative impact assessment for Spencer Gulf, South Australia, we asked experts to estimate score ranges (best-case, most-likely and worst-case), which accounted for their uncertainty about the effect of 32 threats on eight ecosystems. Expert scores were combined with data on the spatial pattern and intensity of threats to generate cumulative impact maps based on each of the three scoring scenarios, as well as simulations and maps of uncertainty. We compared our method, which explicitly accounts for the experts’ knowledge-based uncertainty, with other approaches and found that it provides smaller uncertainty bounds, leading to more constrained assessment results. Collecting these additional data on experts’ knowledge-based uncertainty provides transparency and simplifies interpretation of the outputs from spatial cumulative impact assessments, facilitating their application for sustainable resource management and conservation.

Seagrass, saltmarsh and mangrove habitats are declining around the world as anthropogenic activity and climate change intensify. To be able to effectively restore and maintain healthy coastal-vegetation communities, we must understand how and why they have changed in the past. Identifying shifts in vegetation communities, and the environmental or human drivers of these, can inform successful management and restoration strategies. Unfortunately, long-term data (i.e. decades to hundreds of years) on coastal vegetated ecosystems that can discern community-level changes are mostly non-existent in the scientific record. We propose implementing DNA extracted from coastal sediments to provide an alternative approach to long-term ecological reconstruction for coastal vegetated ecosystems. This type of DNA is called ‘environmental DNA’ and has previously been used to generate long-term datasets for other vegetated systems but has not yet been applied to vegetation change in coastal settings. In this overview, we explore the idea of using sediment eDNA as a long-term monitoring tool for seagrass, saltmarsh and mangrove communities. We see real potential in this approach for reconstructing long-term ecological histories of coastal vegetated ecosystems, and advocate that further research be undertaken to develop appropriate methods for its use.

We investigated spatio-temporal distribution patterns of the Critically Endangered Balearic shearwater Puffinus mauretanicus in the northern part of its migratory range, using a combination of effort-corrected land- and boat-based survey data (2007−2010). The species was recorded regularly along the western English Channel (Western Channel) coasts of northwest France and the southwest UK, with peak counts occurring during the summer and autumn months. Foraging aggregations comprising hundreds to thousands of birds (~1 to 20% of the global population) were recorded in the large shallow embayments of northern Brittany in all sur- vey years. Elsewhere, most birds were recorded on passage, with maximum birds-per-hour (BPH) of 169 off northwest France and 36 off the southwest UK. Few birds were recorded offshore, beyond sight of land. A distance-from-shore analysis revealed that the species passed closer to shore than other pelagic seabirds such as sooty shearwater Puffinus griseus. A constant-effort sea- sonal survey from the southwest tip of the UK mainland recorded the species on 93% of survey days, with BPH rates peaking in the morning between 08:00 and 11:00 h. These results have important monitoring and conservation implications for this Critically Endangered species. In par- ticular, the records of large aggregations in spatially restricted areas of the Western Channel dur- ing the inter-breeding period suggests the species could be vulnerable to impacts such as oil spills, or disturbance from offshore construction projects. We also provide evidence that some birds remain in the survey area during the breeding season, suggesting it may be an important site for non-breeding birds.

Identifying the relative risk human activities pose to a habitat, and the ecosystem services they provide, can guide management prioritisation and resource allocation. Using a combination of expert elicitation to assess the probable effect of a threat and existing data to assess the level of threat exposure, we conducted a risk assessment for 38 human-mediated threats to eight marine habitats (totalling 304 threat-habitat combinations) in Spencer Gulf, Australia. We developed a score-based survey to collate expert opinion and assess the relative effect of each threat to each habitat, as well as a novel and independent measure of knowledge-based uncertainty. Fifty-five experts representing multiple sectors and institutions participated in the study, with 6 to 15 survey responses per habitat (n = 81 surveys). We identified key threats specific to each habitat; overall, climate change threats received the highest risk rankings, with nutrient discharge identified as a key local-scale stressor. Invasive species and most fishing-related threats, which are commonly identified as major threats to the marine environment, were ranked as low-tier threats to Spencer Gulf, emphasising the importance of regionally-relevant assessments. Further, we identified critical knowledge gaps and quantified uncertainty scores for each risk. Our approach will facilitate prioritisation of resource allocation in a region of increasing social, economic and environmental importance, and can be applied to marine regions where empirical data are lacking. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

The Southampton experience of OER has been successful in repurposing over 50 CAT points of climate change resources. There is evidence of culture change amongst those staff who have contributed resources when clearing third party material, and successful negotiations with publishers have depended upon establishing contacts and networking in order to side-step a standardized web process. The level of resource required to repurpose materials means it is unrealistic to expect a widespread take up in UK educational institutions unless, at a national level, the community can negotiate agreements with the major scientific publishers. The requirement of authors to relinquish their copyright when publishing journals has significantly impeded open access in this project. Local repositories offer a more user friendly interface than JorumOpen.

Assessing the impacts of multiple, often synergistic, stressors on the population dynamics of long-lived species is becoming increasingly important due to recent and future global change. Tiliqua rugosa (sleepy lizard) is a long-lived skink (>30 years) that is adapted to survive in semi-arid environments with varying levels of parasite exposure and highly seasonal food availability. We used an exhaustive database of 30 years of capture-mark-recapture records to quantify the impacts of both parasite exposure and environmental conditions on the lizard's survival rates and long-term population dynamics. Lizard abundance was relatively stable throughout the study period; however, there were changing patterns in adult and juvenile apparent survival rates, driven by spatial and temporal variation in levels of tick exposure and temporal variation in environmental conditions. Extreme weather events during the winter and spring seasons were identified as important environmental drivers of survival. Climate models predict a dramatic increase in the frequency of extreme hot and dry winter and spring seasons in our South Australian study region; from a contemporary probability of 0.17 up to 0.47-0.83 in 2080 depending on the emissions scenario. Our stochastic population model projections showed that these future climatic conditions will induce a decline in the abundance of this long-lived reptile of up to 67% within 30 years from 2080, under worst case scenario modelling. The results have broad implications for future work investigating the drivers of population dynamics and persistence. We highlight the importance of long-term data sets and accounting for synergistic impacts between multiple stressors. We show that predicted increases in the frequency of extreme climate events have the potential to considerably and negatively influence a long-lived species, which might previously have been assumed to be resilient to environmental perturbations.

The Gliders and AUVs for Marine Observation and Research (GLAMOR) project was primarily funded by UK Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), through their Strategic Evidence and Partnerships Fund. Damien Guihen was funded by Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) grant NE/H014756/1. Additional financial support came through Defra project MF1112 (POSEIDON). Ian Allan (NIVA) and Branislav Vrana (RECETOX) acknowledge funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) under grant agreement no. 262584, JERICO (TNA project GLISS). A combination of scientific, economic, technological and policy drivers is behind a recent upsurge in the use of marine autonomous systems (and accompanying miniaturized sensors) for environmental mapping and monitoring. Increased spatial-temporal resolution and coverage of data, at reduced cost, is particularly vital for effective spatial management of highly dynamic and heterogeneous shelf environments. This proof-of-concept study involves integration of a novel combination of sensors onto buoyancy-driven submarine gliders, in order to assess their suitability for ecosystem monitoring in shelf waters at a variety of trophic levels. Two shallow-water Slocum gliders were equipped with CTD and fluorometer to measure physical properties and chlorophyll, respectively. One glider was also equipped with a single-frequency echosounder to collect information on zooplankton and fish distribution. The other glider carried a Passive Acoustic Monitoring system to detect and record cetacean vocalizations, and a passive sampler to detect chemical contaminants in the water column. The two gliders were deployed together off southwest UK in autumn 2013, and targeted a known tidal-mixing front west of the Isles of Scilly. The gliders' mission took about 40 days, with each glider travelling distances of >1000km and undertaking >2500 dives to depths of up to 100m. Controlling glider flight and alignment of the two glider trajectories proved to be particularly challenging due to strong tidal flows. However, the gliders continued to collect data in poor weather when an accompanying research vessel was unable to operate. In addition, all glider sensors generated useful data, with particularly interesting initial results relating to subsurface chlorophyll maxima and numerous fish/cetacean detections within the water column. The broader implications of this study for marine ecosystem monitoring with submarine gliders are discussed. Publisher PDF

The coastal Runnelstone Reef, off southwest Cornwall (UK), is characterised by complex topography and strong tidal flows and is a known high-density site for harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena); a European protected species. Using a multidisciplinary dataset including: porpoise sightings from a multi-year land-based survey, Acoustic Doppler Current Profiling (ADCP), vertical profiling of water properties and high-resolution bathymetry; we investigate how interactions between tidal flow and topography drive the fine-scale porpoise spatio-temporal distribution at the site. Porpoise sightings were distributed non-uniformly within the survey area with highest sighting density recorded in areas with steep slopes and moderate depths. Greater numbers of sightings were recorded during strong westward (ebbing) tidal flows compared to strong eastward (flooding) flows and slack water periods. ADCP and Conductivity Temperature Depth (CTD) data identified fine-scale hydrodynamic features, associated with cross-reef tidal flows in the sections of the survey area with the highest recorded densities of porpoises. We observed layered, vertically sheared flows that were susceptible to the generation of turbulence by shear instability. Additionally, the intense, oscillatory near surface currents led to hydraulically controlled flow that transitioned from subcritical to supercritical conditions; indicating that highly turbulent and energetic hydraulic jumps were generated along the eastern and western slopes of the reef. The depression and release of isopycnals in the lee of the reef during cross-reef flows revealed that the flow released lee waves during upslope currents at specific phases of the tidal cycle when the highest sighting rates were recorded. The results of this unique, fine-scale field study provide new insights into specific hydrodynamic features, produced through tidal forcing, that may be important for creating predictable foraging opportunities for porpoises at a local scale. Information on the functional mechanisms linking porpoise distribution to static and dynamic physical habitat variables is extremely valuable to the monitoring and management of the species within the context of European conservation policies and marine renewable energy infrastructure development.

Using combined miniature archival light and salt-water immersion loggers, we characterise the year-round individual at-sea movements of Europe's only critically endangered seabird, the Balearic shearwater Puffinus mauretanicus, for the first time. Focusing on the non-breeding period, we show that all of the 26 breeding birds tracked from their breeding site on Mallorca in the Mediterranean Sea successfully made a 2–4 month migration into the Atlantic Ocean, where they utilised well-defined core areas off Portuguese and French coasts. As well as identifying high-risk areas in the Atlantic, our results confirm that breeding birds spend most of the year concentrated around productive waters of the Iberian shelf in the western Mediterranean. Migration phenology appeared largely unrelated to the subsequent (distinctly synchronous) breeding attempt, suggesting that any carry-over effects were compensated for during a long pre-laying period spent over winter in the Mediterranean. Using the light and salt-water immersion data alone we were also able to characterise the pattern of pre-laying visits to the colony in considerable detail, demonstrating that breeding pairs appear to coordinate their over-day visits using a high frequency of night-time visits throughout the winter. Our study shows that geolocation technology is a valuable tool for assessing the spatial distribution of risks to this critically endangered species, and also provides a low-impact method for remotely observing the detailed behaviour of seabird species that may be sensitive to disturbance from traditional study methods.