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In this paper we investigate whether long run time series of income per capita are better described by a trend-stationary model with few structural changes or by unit root processes in which permanent stochastic shocks are responsible for the observed growth discontinuities. For a group of advanced and developing countries in the Maddison database, we employ a unit root test that allows for an unspecified number of breaks under the alternative hypothesis (up to some ex ante determined maximum). Monte Carlo simulations studying the finite sample properties of the test are reported and discussed. When compared with previous findings in the literature, our results show less evidence against the unit root hypothesis. We find even fewer rejections when relaxing the assumption of Gaussian shocks. Our results are broadly consistent with the implications of evolutionary macro models which posit frequent growth shifts and fat-tailed distribution of aggregate shocks.

The numerical strength of the evidence of matching DNA profiles is conveyed by a likelihood ratio. This is the probability under one hypothesis, generally from the Prosecution, divided by the probability of the evidence under an alternative hypothesis, generally from the Defense. The probabilities can be calculated to reflect the effects of population structure or of relatedness between individuals listed under the alternative hypotheses.

Assessing our confidence in the choices we make is important to making adaptive decisions, and it is thus no surprise that we excel in this ability. However, standard models of decision-making, such as the drift-diffusion model (DDM), treat confidence assessment as a post hoc or parallel process that does not directly influence the choice, which depends only on accumulated evidence. Here, we pursue the alternative hypothesis that what is monitored during a decision is an evolving sense of confidence (that the to-be-selected option is the best) rather than raw evidence. Monitoring confidence has the appealing consequence that the decision threshold corresponds to a desired level of confidence for the choice, and that confidence improvements can be traded off against the resources required to secure them. We show that most previous findings on perceptual and value-based decisions traditionally interpreted from an evidence-accumulation perspective can be explained more parsimoniously from our novel confidence-driven perspective. Furthermore, we show that our novel confidence-driven DDM (cDDM) naturally generalizes to decisions involving any number of alternative options - which is notoriously not the case with traditional DDM or related models. Finally, we discuss future empirical evidence that could be useful in adjudicating between these alternatives., Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, ISSN:1531-5320, ISSN:1069-9384

Biological patterns across latitudinal gradients elucidate a number of striking natural clines from which numerous processes can be further explored. The trade‐off between reproduction and somatic maintenance and growth represents a suite of life‐history traits with variable energy allocation and potential latitudinal patterns. Specifically, male sexually dimorphic traits in female choice systems represent one such reproductive investment constrained by resource acquisition and subsequent allocation. Latitudinal variation in sexual dimorphism has been suggested although the relationship between dimorphic traits and latitude are conflicting. Here, we test alternative hypotheses regarding this pattern using two broadly distributed vertebrates exhibiting sexually dimorphic traits. We hypothesized that the exaggeration of dimorphic traits correlates with latitude, with males having exaggerated sexually dimorphic traits at either higher or lower latitudes. Results indicate that male sexually dimorphic traits are exaggerated at lower latitudes while relative gonopodium size in Poecilia latipinna was larger at higher latitudes. This pattern may be a result of lower latitude populations experiencing greater population densities and longer access to resources that could manifest in females more intensively selecting for higher quality males in lower latitudes. Experimental work should address this pattern and investigate mechanistic processes., We test the hypothesis that the exaggeration of sexually dimorphic traits correlates with latitude, with males having exaggerated sexually dimorphic traits at either higher or lower latitudes. Results indicate that male sexually dimorphic traits are exaggerated at lower latitudes. Experimental work should address this pattern and investigate mechanistic processes.

Background Misinterpretations of the p-value in null-hypothesis statistical testing are common. We aimed to determine the implications of observed p-values in critical care randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Methods We included three cohorts of published RCTs: Adult-RCTs reporting a mortality outcome, Pediatric-RCTs reporting a mortality outcome, and recent Consecutive-RCTs reporting p-value ≤.10 in six higher-impact journals. We recorded descriptive information from RCTs. Reverse Bayesian implications of obtained p-values were calculated, reported as percentages with inter-quartile ranges. Results Obtained p-value was ≤.005 in 11/216 (5.1%) Adult-RCTs, 2/120 (1.7%) Pediatric-RCTs, and 37/90 (41.1%) Consecutive-RCTs. An obtained p-value .05–.0051 had high False Positive Rates; in Adult-RCTs, minimum (assuming prior probability of the alternative hypothesis was 50%) and realistic (assuming prior probability of the alternative hypothesis was 10%) False Positive Rates were 16.7% [11.2, 21.8] and 64.3% [53.2, 71.4]. An obtained p-value ≤.005 had lower False Positive Rates; in Adult-RCTs the realistic False Positive Rate was 7.7% [7.7, 16.0]. The realistic probability of the alternative hypothesis for obtained p-value .05–.0051 (ie, Positive Predictive Value) was 28.0% [24.1, 34.8], 30.6% [27.7, 48.5], 29.3% [24.3, 41.0], and 32.7% [24.1, 43.5] for Adult-RCTs, Pediatric-RCTs, Consecutive-RCTs primary and secondary outcome, respectively. The maximum Positive Predictive Value for p-value category .05–.0051 was median 77.8%, 79.8%, 78.8%, and 81.4% respectively. To have maximum or realistic Positive Predictive Value >90% or >80%, RCTs needed to have obtained p-value ≤.005. The credibility of p-value .05–.0051 findings were easy to challenge, and the credibility to rule-out an effect with p-value >.05 to .10 was low. The probability that a replication study would obtain p-value ≤.05 did not approach 90% unless the obtained p-value was ≤.005. Conclusions Unless the obtained p-value was ≤.005, the False Positive Rate was high, and the Positive Predictive Value and probability of replication of “statistically significant” findings were low.

Definitive clinical trials are resource intensive, often requiring a large number of participants over several years. One approach to improving the efficiency of clinical trials is to incorporate historical information into the primary trial analysis. This approach has tremendous potential in the areas of pediatric or rare disease trials, where achieving reasonable power is difficult. In this manuscript, we introduce a novel Bayesian group-sequential trial design based on Multisource Exchangeability Models, which allows for dynamic borrowing of historical information at the interim analyses. Our approach achieves synergy between group sequential and adaptive borrowing methodology to attain improved power and reduced sample size. We explore the frequentist operating characteristics of our design through simulation and compare our method to a traditional group-sequential design. Our method achieves earlier stopping of the primary study while increasing power under the alternative hypothesis but has a potential for type I error inflation under some null scenarios. We discuss the issues of decision boundary determination, power and sample size calculations, and the issue of information accrual. We present our method for a continuous and binary outcome, as well as in a linear regression setting.

This paper proposes two ratio-type statistics to sequentially detect mean and variance change-points in the long-memory time series. The limiting distributions of monitoring statistics under the no change-point null hypothesis, alternative hypothesis as well as change-point misspecified hypothesis are proved. In particular, a sieve bootstrap approximation method is proposed to determine the critical values. Simulations indicate that the new monitoring procedures have better finite sample performance than the available off-line tests when the change-point nears to the beginning time of monitoring, and can discriminate between mean and variance change-point. Finally, the authors illustrate their procedures via two real data sets: A set of annual volume of discharge data of the Nile river, and a set of monthly temperature data of northern hemisphere. The authors find a new variance change-point in the latter data.

The aim of the study is find out the impact of applying different total quality management (TQM) practices on the performance of employees in the Lebanese industrial sector. The implementation of total quality management in Lebanese companies is very narrow where few companies work to apply Total Quality Management elements and concepts in its operations. Sanita is a Lebanese company that has applied the principles of total quality management relatively in all of its operations, so it has a large share of its products in the Lebanese market. In this quantitative survey designed study, 160 self-administered questionnaires were distributed for employees working at different career level (Top level management / Middle level management / Supervisor / Operator /technician / other workers) in Sanita main branch (Halat -Lebanon) and Sanita factory (Zouk Mosbeh -Lebanon). The survey concluded various questions related to the dependent variable employee performance and the independent variable related to practices of total quality management (leadership, teamwork, training and education, empowerment, communication). Using the quantitative correlation Pearson test, a strong influence emerged for the implementation of TQM principles on the performance of employees at Sanita and its factories; thus accepting the main alternative hypothesis.

We conducted a preregistered multilaboratory project ( k = 36; N = 3,531) to assess the size and robustness of ego-depletion effects using a novel replication method, termed the paradigmatic replication approach. Each laboratory implemented one of two procedures that was intended to manipulate self-control and tested performance on a subsequent measure of self-control. Confirmatory tests found a nonsignificant result ( d = 0.06). Confirmatory Bayesian meta-analyses using an informed-prior hypothesis (δ = 0.30, SD = 0.15) found that the data were 4 times more likely under the null than the alternative hypothesis. Hence, preregistered analyses did not find evidence for a depletion effect. Exploratory analyses on the full sample (i.e., ignoring exclusion criteria) found a statistically significant effect ( d = 0.08); Bayesian analyses showed that the data were about equally likely under the null and informed-prior hypotheses. Exploratory moderator tests suggested that the depletion effect was larger for participants who reported more fatigue but was not moderated by trait self-control, willpower beliefs, or action orientation.

En esta investigación titulada: “Inteligencia emocional y dirección estratégica caso: municipalidad provincial de Huancavelica, periodo 2015”, se pretende dar respuesta a la pregunta, ¿De qué manera la inteligencia emocional influye en la dirección estratégica de la Municipalidad Provincial de Huancavelica, 2015?; Asimismo, el objetivo general de la tesis es determinar de qué manera la inteligencia emocional influye en la dirección estratégica de la Municipalidad Provincial de Huancavelica, 2015. La investigación realizada es descriptivo-explicativa; Por lo cual se utilizaron el método inductivo, analítico y descriptivo. Para contrastar la hipótesis se utilizó la estadística inferencial con su distribución Chi Cuadrado, puesto que los datos obtenidos son cualitativos y no paramétricos. Si en la colecta y procesamiento de los datos se halla un < , se aceptará la hipótesis nula (Ho). Pero si en la colecta y procesamiento de los datos se halla un > , se aceptará la hipótesis alternativa (Ha), al 5% de significancia estadística. El principal hallazgo de la tesis consiste en que el Chi-cuadrado calculado es de 18,97 frente a un Chi-cuadrado 12,59 ( > ), por lo que se rechaza la hipótesis nula a favor de la hipótesis alternativa, al 5% de significancia estadística. Por lo tanto; se concluye que “La inteligencia emocional influye significativamente en la dirección estratégica de la Municipalidad Provincial de Huancavelica, 2015”.

Researchers increasingly use Bayes factor for hypotheses evaluation. There are two main applications: null hypothesis Bayesian testing (NHBT) and informative hypothesis Bayesian testing (IHBT). As will be shown in this article, NHBT is sensitive to the specification of the scale parameter of the prior distribution, while IHBT is not. As will also be shown in this article, for NHBT using four different Bayes factors, use of the recommended default values for the scaling parameters results in unpredictable operating characteristics, that is, the Bayes factor will usually be biased against or in favor of the null hypothesis. As will furthermore be shown in this article, this problem can be addressed by choosing the scaling parameter such that the Bayes factor is 19 in favor of the null hypothesis over the alternative hypothesis if the observed effect size is equal to zero, because this renders a Bayes factor with clearly specified operating characteristics. However, this does not solve all problems regarding NHBT. The discussion of this article contains elaborations with respect to: the multiverse of Bayes factors; the choice of "19"; Bayes factor calibration outside the context of the univariate normal linear model; and, reporting the results of NHBT. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).