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Continuous and accurate drought monitoring has an important role in early warning drought mitigation policies. This study aims to provide an accurate standardized drought monitoring indicator by enhancing the representative characteristics of precipitation data using advanced statistical methods. We proposed a two-phase statistical procedure index – the Regional Multi-Component Gaussian Hydrological Drought Assessment (RMcGHDA) – for accurate drought monitoring under a multi-auxiliary variable-based sampling estimator and K-Component Gaussian Mixture Distribution (CGMD) model. The first phase of our proposed method increases the regional representativeness of the data under Spatio-temporal settings and the second phase describes the use of the Twelve-Component Gaussian Mixture Distribution (CGMD) model in the standardization stage of SDIs. We applied the proposed framework to 52 meteorological stations in Pakistan and compared the RMcGHDA performance with existing methods using Pearson correlation (r) and spatial patterns of various drought categories. We found significant differences between RMcGHDA and existing methods (i.e., Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) for drought assessment. By the rationale of the data improvement under-sampling estimator and the use of multi-component Gaussian function, these differences indicate that RMcGHDA provides a practical and accurate way for drought assessment.

This research was aimed to examine the moderating role of gender on the impact of sexual jealousy on partner infidelity among university students. For the purpose, a sample of 352 students were recruited through simple random sampling technique from four cities (Bahawalpur, Multan, Lahore, Rawalpindi) of Punjab, Pakistan. Respondents were given two questionnaires; Interpersonal Jealousy Scale and Infidelity Questionnaire. After data collection, results were analysed through SmartPLS (3.0) for moderation model. The results showed that sexual jealousy had significant positive impact showing 59% variance on partner infidelity, whereas, gender was found to be a significant moderator between sexual jealousy and partner infidelity (R2= 0.594, t= 2.403, p

The spread of an epidemic diseases is stochastic in nature. It is more realistic to include this stochasticity when modelling the dynamics of a communicable disease. In this paper, a stochastic model for foot and mouth disease dynamics in animals is constructed from its corresponding deterministic model. Like the deterministic model, the dynamics of the stochastic model is also governed by a threshold parameter ${A}^{*}$A∗, called FMD generation number. If we are able to make ${A}^{*} < 1$A∗<1, then the disease will completely die out from the animal population. If ${A}^{*} > 1$A∗>1, the disease will become endemic in animals. A competitive structure preserving numerical analysis of the stochastic model in comparison with its deterministic part is presented. The proposed numerical analysis is also compared with already existing numerical techniques which may not be reliable in certain situations. Numerical experiments are performed and their results are plotted to show the strength of the proposed technique.

Recent advances fascinated the use of biological resources in combination with metals to obtain high quality biometals and apply its advantages in different fields. Endophytic mediated Zinc oxide nanoparticles (ZnO-NPs) is an economical and ecofriendly way for farmers to avoid Zn deficiency in rice crop and obtain high yield. Here we synthesized ZnO-NPs utilizing endophytic bacterial strain of Enterobacter hormaechei (E. hormaechei). The physiochemical properties of the prepared NPs were determined through UV-Vis spectroscopy, XRD, FT-IR, SEM and TEM. The prepared NPs revealed surface plasmon resonance (SPR) at 320 nm (nm) and crystalline structure with 21 nm average crystalline size. FT-IR spectra showed the presence of carboxylic, alcohol and amine functional groups, which confirm the biometallic assembling of the ZnO and endophytic bacterial functional groups. SEM showed pyramidal symmetry whereas TEM revealed poly dispersed spherical shape with particle size distribution 18-48 nm. Our results showed that prepared NPs possess significant antifungal, antibacterial and antioxidant potential at 25, 50 and 100 µg/mL concentrations. Moreover, Cytotoxic and hemolytic assay showed significant results (less % viability and hemolysis activity) at 50 and 100 µg/mL (ZnO-NP's) concentrations as compared to control. The prepared ZnO-NPs were used as bio fertilizer in various concentrations as a foliar spray, which showed significant enhancement of the rice plant growth, along with chlorophyll, proteins and carotenoid contents. These results recommend that endophytic mediated ZnO-NPs are biocompatible and possess significant potential for agricultural applications.

Drought is a complex natural hazard that has been recurrently occurred in many regions across the globe. Therefore, precise drought characterization and its regional monitoring are key challenges for advanced water management and hydrological research. In this research, we provided a novel method to improve annual average time series data for the Standardized Drought Index (SDI)-type drought monitoring tools. We proposed multi-auxiliary information-based estimation strategy that improves annual moving average/total precipitation time series records. Therefore, we incorporated a minimum and maximum temperature as auxiliary variables under multi-auxiliary regression estimator. In summary, this study propagates a new drought index named: the Precision-Weighted Standardized Precipitation Index (PWSDI). We evaluated the performance of PWSDI for 10 meteorological stations in Pakistan. We found that improved estimates of temporal precipitation time series are good candidates for modelling and monitoring hydrological drought at the regional settings under SDI procedure.

In this work, we provide a new generated class of models, namely, the extended generalized inverted Kumaraswamy generated (EGIKw-G) family of distributions. Several structural properties (survival function sf , hazard rate function hrf , reverse hazard rate function rhrf , quantile function qf and median, s th raw moment, generating function, mean deviation md , etc.) are provided. The estimates for parameters of new G class are derived via maximum likelihood estimation MLE method. The special models of the proposed class are discussed, and particular attention is given to one special model, the extended generalized inverted Kumaraswamy Burr XII (EGIKw-Burr XII) model. Estimators are evaluated via a Monte Carlo simulation MCS . The superiority of EGIKw-Burr XII model is proved using a lifetime data applications.

Currently, prevention and control of the coronavirus disease pneumonia epidemic situation are grim globally. To cope with total sheer carriers and patients of COVID-19 requires intensive medical support and adjunctive therapies to overcome the disease. The epidemic can be controlled with the help of both, disease suppression via community health measures and adjunctive therapies for patients suffering from infection. Till date, we do not have any proper anti-COVID-19 therapy. In order to achieve the overall realization of this pandemic, there is a need to identify treatments depending upon their direct or indirect targets; like inhibition of polyprotein synthesis, transmembrane serine protease, inhibition of viral entry and endocytosis. This could be possible by turning the focus in the direction towards the development of numerous tentative drugs, particularly in the severe to badly ill. Though, majority of these off-label adjunctive medicines are being inspected in a lot of clinical trials at different stages, scientific organizations have endeavored to elucidate the situation where these adjunctive drugs might be practiced as off-label, open- label or compassionate. Our review compiles the adjunctive therapies adopted in COVID-19 infected patients according to clinical severity in conjugation with practicing recommendations from existing guidance rules issued by global professional bodies in healthcare.

Drought hazard is one of the main consequences of global warming and climate change. Unlike other natural disasters, drought has complex climatic features. Therefore, accurate drought monitoring is a challenging task. This paper proposes a framework for assessing drought classifications at the regional level. The proposed framework provides a new drought monitoring indicator called Multi-Scalar Seasonally Amalgamated Regional Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (MSARSPEI). MSARSPEI is an amalgam of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration (SPEI) (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010) and Regionally Improved Weighted Standardized Drought Index (RIWSDI) (Jiang et al., 2020). In the proposed framework, the Boruta algorithm of feature selection is configured to ensemble monthly time series data of evaporation in various meteorological stations located in specific regions. Further, the framework suggests the standardization of the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of K-Component Gaussian (K-CG) mixture distribution function for obtaining MSARSPEI data. The application of the proposed framework is based on seven different regions of Pakistan. For comparative analysis, this paper compared the performance of MSARSPE with SPEI using Pearson correlation. Outcomes associated with this research show that the proposed regional drought index has a strong correlation with the competing indicator in various time scales. In addition, the study assessed the spatial extent of various drought classifications under MSARSPEI. In summation, this research concludes that the choice of the MSARSPEI is rationally valid and more appropriate for the regional assessment of drought under the global warming scenario.

Aim: To conclude the prevalence of tinea-unguium in mellitus and its relationship to age, gender, mellitus and control. Place and Period: In the dermatology department of Sir Ganga Ram Hospital Lahore for one-year period from December 2018 to November 2019. Victims and methods: This descriptive studies included 262 victims with type 2 mellitus. All victims were examined by a dermatologist, and victims with medical suspicions were referred for laboratory examination, i.e. smear and culture. Confirmed cases of tinea-unguium were treated with terbinafine 250 mg / day for four months. Victims were medically observed monthly and data were recorded. Direct smear and nail culture were taken at the end of the cure protocol. Results: 262 glaucoma victims (123 men and 139 ladies) were examined. The mean age and period of mellitus was 59.13 ± 10.94 years and 7.23 ± 12.4 years, correspondingly. Nail fungus has been medically diagnosed in 18 victims (6.9%), and a culture studies was performed in only 10 victims (3.7%). 70.0% of cases of tinea-unguium are men, and 60.0% were over 60 years old. There was no significant relationship between the prevalence of tinea-unguium and the period of mellitus, but tinea-unguium is more common in victims with poor mellitus control. Conclusion: The prevalence of tinea-unguium in victims with type-2 mellitus is 3.90% and is significantly related with poor mellitus control. Key words: Mellitus, tinea-unguium.

Writers examined 68 offspring: 46 who advanced AI (22/46 progressed to mellitus) and 26 coordinated controls for gender and age. The purpose of this investigation is to recognize hereditary, immunological, metabolomics and proteomic biomarkers for the advancement of islet autoimmunity and development to mellitus category-1 in an expected high-danger companion. Indicators of AI and transition to mellitus were recognized from single foundations expending an integrative AI calculation and component selection based on improvement. Biomarkers were studied along four time axes: the most readily available example only before AI, shortly after AI, and only before the onset of mellitus. Our integrative methodology predicted AI (AUC 0.95) and mellitus development (AUC 0.94) for standard cross-approval. Our current research was conducted at Jinnah Hospital, Lahore from December 2017 to November 2018. Coordinated models, when approved in open populations, could provide new insights into pathways leading to AI and category-1 mellitus. This rule evaluation audit is main study to assimilate huge collections of biomarker information into a number of climaxes, highlighting the contrasts in the pathways of development of AI versus those foreseeing development to DM. Amongst most reliable indicators of AI were changes in serum ascorbate, 3-methyl-oxobutyrate and PTPN22 polymorphism. Serum glucose, fibrinogen ADP and mannose remained amongst most well-founded indicators of development to mellitus. Key words: Disputative statistics foundations, Extrapolative Demonstrating, DM category-1.

The motivation for this study is to analyze Bayesian exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart under 3 loss functions namely, SELF, LLF, and PLF. Informative priors (normal and mixture of normal) and non-informative priors (Uniform and Jefferys) are considered for the analysis. The performance of Bayesian EWMA control chart using posterior and posterior predictive distribution scheme has been evaluated using average run length (ARL) and standard deviation run length (SDRL) as performance measures. Monte Carlo simulations are used to compute the performance measures for different values of smoothing constant. An illustrative example is also presented for practical considerations of Bayesian EWMA control chart.

In this era of new revolution of globalization and trade liberalization, exchange rates (ER) are one of the fundamental factors in international trade. This research focus on the determinants of trade i.e. Import, export, industrial growth, consumption level and oil prices fluctuation brings changes in exchange rate and its influence eventually on balance of payments in China. Data was collected on annual basis for thirty one years. By applying cointegration, it is estimated that there exist a long run relationship. China has significantly and correctly signs the short run dynamic. Exchange rate does not Granger cause balance of payment and balance of payment does not granger cause exchange rate. In conclusion, we found that the balance of trade, economic growth factors and oil price brings changes in exchange rate. Furthermore, we found the unilateral or bilateral effect of balance of payment and exchange rate. Moreover, apart from the selected determinants of trade, there are many other macroeconomic factors (inflation rates, interest rates, speculation, change in competitiveness, relative strength of other currencies and government debt) and microeconomic factors (political stability position and regional relationship) which may also play role in determination of exchange rates.

Affect of increase and decrease in balance of trade is observed in determination of balance of payments of country. Balance of payment and exchange rate has significant relationship with each other. This research investigates that the determinants of trade i.e. Import, export, industrial growth, consumption level and oil prices fluctuation brings changes in exchange rate and its influence eventually on balance of payments in United state of America (USA). Data of defined variables is collected on annual basis for thirty one years. By applying cointegration, it is estimated that there exist a long run relationship. USA has significantly and correctly signs the short run dynamic. Exchange rate does not Granger cause balance of payment and balance of payment does not granger cause exchange rate. In conclusion, we found that determinatnts of balance of trade affect the exchange rates, also, these rates have an considerable effect (positive or negative) on balance of payments. Therefore, for the macroeconomic stability within a country; economists, policy makers and government should collectively device appropriately matched and synchronized monetary, trade and fiscal policies which stabilize the exchange rate and sustain the balance of payment objectives.

In the area of international trade few studies have examined whether fluctuation in exchange rate is base on macro variables that are used in this study. Basically the study is conducted in Pakistan. As it has been noticed that there is continuously increasing in exchange rate since last 20 years. This paper investigate that foreign direct investment, inflation and supply of money have strong relationship with exchange rate. This means that if there is increase in foreign direct investment then the exchange rate will decrease, if there is increase in supply of money then the exchange rate will grow and if there is increase in inflation then the exchange rate will increase and vice versa.

Affect of increase and decrease in balance of trade is observed in determination of balance of payments of country. Balance of payment and exchange rate has significant relationship with each other. This research investigates that the determinants of trade i.e. Import, export, industrial growth, consumption level and oil prices fluctuation brings changes in exchange rate and its influence eventually on balance of payments in United state of America (USA). Data of defined variables is collected on annual basis for thirty one years. By applying cointegration, it is estimated that there exist a long run relationship. USA has significantly and correctly signs the short run dynamic. Exchange rate does not Granger cause balance of payment and balance of payment does not granger cause exchange rate. In conclusion, we found that determinatnts of balance of trade affect the exchange rates, also, these rates have an considerable effect (positive or negative) on balance of payments. Therefore, for the macroeconomic stability within a country; economists, policy makers and government should collectively device appropriately matched and synchronized monetary, trade and fiscal policies which stabilize the exchange rate and sustain the balance of payment objectives.

Exchange rate is a significant factor in international macroeconomics; it affects are witnessed in the recent past on different currency crises in many economies and has attracted focus of policy makers around the globe. But the question is can the exchange rate policy really be used to influence trade flows? Whether we really can say what effect on trade balance a depreciation or appreciation of exchange will have? Is the connection between exchange rate, trade balance and balance of payments is strong enough for us to be able to base a policy on it? So, this research study focuses on the above questions for United Kingdom (UK) economy. Data of defined variables is collected on annual basis for thirty one years. By applying cointegration, it is estimated that there exist a long run relationship. UK has significantly and correctly signs the short run dynamic. Exchange rate does not Granger cause balance of payment and balance of payment does not granger cause exchange rate. In conclusion, we found that determinatnts of balance of trade affect the exchange rates, also, these rates have an considerable effect (positive or negative) on balance of payments.

Consumption is positively correlated with disposable income, due to higher oil prices a fall in disposable income will decreases consumption and production and adverse impact on growth. If investment decisions are concerned increase in oil prices will increase cost of production and lowers profit margin and investment. This paper seeks to identify the impact of exchange rate volatility and oil prices fluctuations on economic growth in France based on annual data for fourty years. Impact of oil prices and exchange rate volatility on economic growth has been significant. Cointegration technique is applied to check exchange rate volatility has been significant. Engle and Granger cointegration technique applied and the impact of oil prices and exchange rate volatility on economic growth is checked. Engle Granger results indicate that relationship is significant in the long run and its error correction adjustment mechanism (ECM) in short runs is significant and correctly signed for France.

Exchange rate has proved its behavior in determining the country economic position in this age of globalization and trade liberalization. Therefore, this research investigates that the determinants of trade i.e. Import, export, industrial growth, consumption level and oil prices fluctuation brings changes in exchange rate and its influence eventually on balance of payments in comparison of Indian and Pakistani economies. Data of defined variables is collected on annual basis of India and Pakistan for thirty one years. By applying cointegration, it is estimated that there exist a long run relationship in both countries. India and Pakistan has significantly and correctly sign the short run dynamic and some of the factors have not. In Pakistan balance of payment does granger cause exchange rate. For India, exchange rate does not granger cause balance of payment. It is concluded that exchange rate is very important determinant of trading in an open economy. Dealing in foreign exchange market, currency change affects every economy including developed or developing. This occurs because of the market forces of supply and demand, which pushes countries exchange rate as depreciated and appreciated.