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Abstract The objective of thermonuclear fusion consists of producing electricity from the coalescence of light nuclei in high temperature plasmas. The most promising route to fusion envisages the confinement of such plasmas with magnetic fields, whose most studied configuration is the tokamak. Disruptions are catastrophic collapses affecting all tokamak devices and one of the main potential showstoppers on the route to a commercial reactor. In this work we report how, deploying innovative analysis methods on thousands of JET experiments covering the isotopic compositions from hydrogen to full tritium and including the major D-T campaign, the nature of the various forms of collapse is investigated in all phases of the discharges. An original approach to proximity detection has been developed, which allows determining both the probability of and the time interval remaining before an incoming disruption, with adaptive, from scratch, real time compatible techniques. The results indicate that physics based prediction and control tools can be developed, to deploy realistic strategies of disruption avoidance and prevention, meeting the requirements of the next generation of devices.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), broke out in December 2019 in Wuhan city, in the Hubei province of China. Since then, it has spread practically all over the world, disrupting many human activities. In temperate climates overwhelming evidence indicates that its incidence increases significantly during the cold season. Italy was one of the first nations, in which COVID-19 reached epidemic proportions, already at the beginning of 2020. There is therefore enough data to perform a systematic investigation of the correlation between the spread of the virus and the environmental conditions. The objective of this study is the investigation of the relationship between the virus diffusion and the weather, including temperature, wind, humidity and air quality, before the rollout of any vaccine and including rapid variation of the pollutants (not only their long term effects as reported in the literature). Regarding them methodology, given the complexity of the problem and the sparse data, robust statistical tools based on ranking (Spearman and Kendall correlation coefficients) and innovative dynamical system analysis techniques (recurrence plots) have been deployed to disentangle the different influences. In terms of results, the evidence indicates that, even if temperature plays a fundamental role, the morbidity of COVID-19 depends also on other factors. At the aggregate level of major cities, air pollution and the environmental quantities affecting it, particularly the wind intensity, have no negligible effect. This evidence should motivate a rethinking of the public policies related to the containment of this type of airborne infectious diseases, particularly information gathering and traffic management.

In recent years, several bacterial strains have acquired significant antibiotic resistance and can, therefore, become difficult to contain. To counteract such trends, relational databases can be a powerful tool for supporting the decision-making process. The case of Klebsiella pneumoniae diffusion in a central region of Italy was analyzed as a case study. A specific relational database is shown to provide very detailed and timely information about the spatial–temporal diffusion of the contagion, together with a clear assessment of the multidrug resistance of the strains. The analysis is particularized for both internal and external patients. Tools such as the one proposed can, therefore, be considered important elements in the identification of infection hotspots, a key ingredient of any strategy to reduce the diffusion of an infectious disease at the community level and in hospitals. These types of tools are also very valuable in the decision-making process related to antibiotic prescription and to the management of stockpiles. The application of this processing technology to viral diseases such as COVID-19 is under investigation.

It can be argued that the identification of sound mathematical models is the ultimate goal of any scientific endeavour. On the other hand, particularly in the investigation of complex systems and nonlinear phenomena, discriminating between alternative models can be a very challenging task. Quite sophisticated model selection criteria are available but their deployment in practice can be problematic. In this work, the Akaike Information Criterion is reformulated with the help of purely information theoretic quantities, namely, the Gibbs-Shannon entropy and the Mutual Information. Systematic numerical tests have proven the improved performances of the proposed upgrades, including increased robustness against noise and the presence of outliers. The same modifications can be implemented to rewrite also Bayesian statistical criteria, such as the Schwartz indicator, in terms of information-theoretic quantities, proving the generality of the approach and the validity of the underlying assumptions.

Magnetic confinement nuclear fusion holds great promise as a source of clean and sustainable energy for the future. However, achieving net energy from fusion reactors requires a more profound understanding of the underlying physics and the development of efficient control strategies. Plasma diagnostics are vital to these efforts, but accessing local information often involves solving very ill-posed inverse problems. Regrettably, many of the current approaches for solving these problems rely on simplifying assumptions, sometimes inaccurate or not completely verified, with consequent imprecise outcomes. In order to overcome these challenges, the present study suggests employing physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) to tackle inverse problems in tokamaks. PINNs represent a type of neural network that is versatile and can offer several benefits over traditional methods, such as their capability of handling incomplete physics equations, of coping with noisy data, and of operating mesh-independently. In this work, PINNs are applied to three typical inverse problems in tokamak physics: equilibrium reconstruction, interferometer inversion, and bolometer tomography. The reconstructions are compared with measurements from other diagnostics and correlated phenomena, and the results clearly show that PINNs can be easily applied to these types of problems, delivering accurate results. Furthermore, we discuss the potential of PINNs as a powerful tool for integrated data analysis. Overall, this study demonstrates the great potential of PINNs for solving inverse problems in magnetic confinement thermonuclear fusion and highlights the benefits of using advanced machine learning techniques for the interpretation of various plasma diagnostics.

The analysis of causality between systems is still an important research activity, which finds application in several fields of science. The software presented is a new tool for causality detection and analysis between time series. The proposed technique is based on time-delayed neural networks (TDNN). The tool is developed in MATLAB and it comprises three main functions. The first one returns the total causality between two or more systems of equations. The second tool is used to find the “time horizon”, id est the time delay at which the influence between the systems occurs. The last function is a causality feature detection to determine the time intervals, in which the mutual coupling is sufficiently strong to have a real influence on the target.

In recent years, a new tomographic inversion method based on the Maximum Likelihood (ML) approach has been adapted to JET bolometry. Apart from its accuracy and reliability, the key advantage is its ability to provide reliable estimates of the uncertainties in the reconstructions. The original algorithm was implemented and validated using the MATLAB software tool. This work presents the accelerated version of the algorithm implemented using a compatible ITER fast controller platform with the Ubuntu 18.04 or the ITER Codac Core System distributions (6.1.2). The algorithm has been implemented in C++ using the open-source libraries: ArrayFire, ALGLIB, and MATIO. These libraries simplify the management of specific hardware accelerators such as GPUs and increase performance. The speed-up factor obtained is approximately 10 times. The work presents the methodology followed, the results obtained, and the advantages and drawbacks of implementation.

What does it mean to regenerate urban space? The question is crucial mainly in a city of art with a UNESCO heritage historic centre. In the last five years, the strategy we applied, transformation and recovery interventions, is to put the person and the citizen at the centre of the urban space. Whether it was a historic square, a city entryway avenue, a factory, a suburban garden, or the Te Palace Park, we always rethought them, starting from citizens' role in those spaces.

Understanding and quantifying the mutual influence between systems remain crucial but challenging tasks in any scientific enterprise. The Pearson correlation coefficient, the mutual information, and the information quality ratio are the most widely used indicators, only the last two being valid for nonlinear interactions. Given their limitations, a new criterion is proposed, the reciprocal influence criterion, which is very simple conceptually and does not make any assumption about the statistics of the stochastic variables involved. In addition to being normalised as the information quality ratio, it provides a much better resilience to noise and much higher stability to the issues related to the determination of the involved probability distribution functions. A conditional version, to counteract the effects of confounding variables, has also been developed, showing the same advantages compared to the more traditional indicators. A series of systematic tests with numerical examples is reported, to compare the properties of the new indicator with the more traditional ones, proving its clear superiority in practically all respects.

The Stellarator is a magnetic configuration considered a realistic candidate for a future thermonuclear fusion commercial reactor. The most widely accepted scaling law of the energy confinement time for the Stellarator is the ISS04, which employs a renormalisation factor, fren, specific to each device and each level of optimisation for individual machines. The fren coefficient is believed to account for higher order effects not ascribable to variations in the 0D quantities, the only ones included in the database used to derive ISS04, the International Stellarator Confinement database. This hypothesis is put to the test with symbolic regression, which allows relaxing the assumption that the scaling laws must be in power monomial form. Specific and more general scaling laws for the different magnetic configurations have been identified and perform better than ISS04, even without relying on any renormalisation factor. The proposed new scalings typically present a coefficient of determination R2 around 0.9, which indicates that they basically exploit all the information included in the database. More importantly, the different optimisation levels are correctly reproduced and can be traced back to variations in the 0D quantities. These results indicate that fren is not indispensable to interpret the data because the different levels of optimisation leave clear signatures in the 0D quantities. Moreover, the main mechanism dominating transport, in reasonably optimised configurations, is expected to be turbulence, confirmed by a comparative analysis of the Tokamak in L mode, which shows very similar values of the energy confinement time. Not resorting to any renormalisation factor, the new scaling laws can also be extrapolated to the parameter regions of the most important reactor designs available.

Model selection criteria are widely used to identify the model that best represents the data among a set of potential candidates. Amidst the different model selection criteria, the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) are the most popular and better understood. In the derivation of these indicators, it was assumed that the model’s dependent variables have already been properly identified and that the entries are not affected by significant uncertainties. These are issues that can become quite serious when investigating complex systems, especially when variables are highly correlated and the measurement uncertainties associated with them are not negligible. More sophisticated versions of this criteria, capable of better detecting spurious relations between variables when non-negligible noise is present, are proposed in this paper. Their derivation is obtained starting from a Bayesian statistics framework and adding an a priori Chi-squared probability distribution function of the model, dependent on a specifically defined information theoretic quantity that takes into account the redundancy between the dependent variables. The performances of the proposed versions of these criteria are assessed through a series of systematic simulations, using synthetic data for various classes of functions and noise levels. The results show that the upgraded formulation of the criteria clearly outperforms the traditional ones in most of the cases reported.

In the last years the reputation of medical, economic, and scientific expertise has been strongly damaged by a series of false predictions and contradictory studies. The lax application of statistical principles has certainly contributed to the uncertainty and loss of confidence in the sciences. Various assumptions, generally held as valid in statistical treatments, have proved their limits. In particular, since some time it has emerged quite clearly that even slightly departures from normality and homoscedasticity can affect significantly classic significance tests. Robust statistical methods have been developed, which can provide much more reliable estimates. On the other hand, they do not address an additional problem typical of the natural sciences, whose data are often the output of delicate measurements. The data can therefore not only be sampled from a nonnormal pdf but also be affected by significant levels of Gaussian additive noise of various amplitude. To tackle this additional source of uncertainty, in this paper it is shown how already developed robust statistical tools can be usefully complemented with the Geodesic Distance on Gaussian Manifolds. This metric is conceptually more appropriate and practically more effective, in handling noise of Gaussian distribution, than the traditional Euclidean distance. The results of a series of systematic numerical tests show the advantages of the proposed approach in all the main aspects of statistical inference, from measures of location and scale to size effects and hypothesis testing. Particularly relevant is the reduction even of 35% in Type II errors, proving the important improvement in power obtained by applying the methods proposed in the paper. It is worth emphasizing that the proposed approach provides a general framework, in which also noise of different statistical distributions can be dealt with.

Disruptions in tokamaks are very often associated with the slowing down of magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) instabilities and their subsequent locking to the wall. To improve the understanding of the chain of events ending with a disruption, a statistically robust and physically based criterion has been devised to track the slowing down of modes with toroidal mode numbers n = 1 and mostly poloidal mode number m = 2, providing an alternative and earlier detection tool compared to simple threshold based indicators. A database of 370 discharges of axially symmetric divertor experiment—upgrade (AUG) has been studied and results compared with other indicators used in real time. The estimator is based on a weighted average value of the fast Fourier transform of the perturbed radial n = 1 magnetic field, caused by the rotation of the modes. The use of a carrier sinusoidal wave helps alleviating the spurious influence of non-sinusoidal magnetic perturbations induced by other instabilities like Edge localized modes (ELMs). The indicator constitutes a good candidate for further studies including machine learning approaches for mitigation and avoidance since, by deploying it systematically to evaluate the time instance for the expected locking, multi-machine databases can be populated. Furthermore, it can be thought as a contribution to a wider approach to dynamically tracking the chain of events leading to disruptions.

The inadequacies of basic physics models for disruption prediction have induced the community to increasingly rely on data mining tools. In the last decade, it has been shown how machine learning predictors can achieve a much better performance than those obtained with manually identified thresholds or empirical descriptions of the plasma stability limits. The main criticisms of these techniques focus therefore on two different but interrelated issues: poor “physics fidelity” and limited interpretability. Insufficient “physics fidelity” refers to the fact that the mathematical models of most data mining tools do not reflect the physics of the underlying phenomena. Moreover, they implement a black box approach to learning, which results in very poor interpretability of their outputs. To overcome or at least mitigate these limitations, a general methodology has been devised and tested, with the objective of combining the predictive capability of machine learning tools with the expression of the operational boundary in terms of traditional equations more suited to understanding the underlying physics. The proposed approach relies on the application of machine learning classifiers (such as Support Vector Machines or Classification Trees) and Symbolic Regression via Genetic Programming directly to experimental databases. The results are very encouraging. The obtained equations of the boundary between the safe and disruptive regions of the operational space present almost the same performance as the machine learning classifiers, based on completely independent learning techniques. Moreover, these models possess significantly better predictive power than traditional representations, such as the Hugill or the beta limit. More importantly, they are realistic and intuitive mathematical formulas, which are well suited to supporting theoretical understanding and to benchmarking empirical models. They can also be deployed easily and efficiently in real-time feedback systems.

This article describes a refinement of recurrence analysis to determine the delay in the causal influence between a driver and a target, in the presence of additional perturbations affecting the time series of the response observable. The methodology is based on the definition of a new type of recurrence plots, the Conditional Joint Recurrence plot. The potential of the proposed approach resides in the great flexibility of recurrence plots themselves, which allows extending the technique to more than three quantities. Autoregressive time series, both linear and nonlinear, with different couplings and percentage of additive Gaussian noise have been investigated in detail, with and without outliers. The approach has also been applied to the case of synthetic periodic signals, representing realistic situations of synchronization experiments in thermonuclear fusion. The results obtained have been very positive; the proposed Conditional Joint Recurrence plots have always managed to identify the right interval of the causal influences and are very competitive with alternative techniques such as the Conditional Transfer Entropy.

Advanced time series analysis and causality detection techniques have been successfully applied to the assessment of synchronization experiments in tokamaks, such as Edge Localized Modes (ELMs) and sawtooth pacing. Lag synchronization is a typical strategy for fusion plasma instability control by pace-making techniques. The major difficulty, in evaluating the efficiency of the pacing methods, is the coexistence of the causal effects with the periodic or quasi-periodic nature of the plasma instabilities. In the present work, a set of methods based on the image representation of time series, are investigated as tools for evaluating the efficiency of the pace-making techniques. The main options rely on the Gramian Angular Field (GAF), the Markov Transition Field (MTF), previously used for time series classification, and the Chaos Game Representation (CGR), employed for the visualization of large collections of long time series. The paper proposes an original variation of the Markov Transition Matrix, defined for a couple of time series. Additionally, a recently proposed method, based on the mapping of time series as cross-visibility networks and their representation as images, is included in this study. The performances of the method are evaluated on synthetic data and applied to JET measurements.

Determining the coupling between systems remains a topic of active research in the field of complex science. Identifying the proper causal influences in time series can already be very challenging in the trivariate case, particularly when the interactions are non-linear. In this paper, the coupling between three Lorenz systems is investigated with the help of specifically designed artificial neural networks, called time delay neural networks (TDNNs). TDNNs can learn from their previous inputs and are therefore well suited to extract the causal relationship between time series. The performances of the TDNNs tested have always been very positive, showing an excellent capability to identify the correct causal relationships in absence of significant noise. The first tests on the time localization of the mutual influences and the effects of Gaussian noise have also provided very encouraging results. Even if further assessments are necessary, the networks of the proposed architecture have the potential to be a good complement to the other techniques available in the market for the investigation of mutual influences between time series.

The Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the Akaike information criterion (AIC), and some other indicators derived from them are widely used for model selection. In their original form, they contain the likelihood of the data given the models. Unfortunately, in many applications, it is practically impossible to calculate the likelihood, and, therefore, the criteria have been reformulated in terms of descriptive statistics of the residual distribution: the variance and the mean-squared error of the residuals. These alternative versions are strictly valid only in the presence of additive noise of Gaussian distribution, not a completely satisfactory assumption in many applications in science and engineering. Moreover, the variance and the mean-squared error are quite crude statistics of the residual distributions. More sophisticated statistical indicators, capable of better quantifying how close the residual distribution is to the noise, can be profitably used. In particular, specific goodness of fit tests have been included in the expressions of the traditional criteria and have proved to be very effective in improving their discriminating capability. These improved performances have been demonstrated with a systematic series of simulations using synthetic data for various classes of functions and different noise statistics.

The increasingly sophisticated investigations of complex systems require more robust estimates of the correlations between the measured quantities. The traditional Pearson correlation coefficient is easy to calculate but sensitive only to linear correlations. The total influence between quantities is, therefore, often expressed in terms of the mutual information, which also takes into account the nonlinear effects but is not normalized. To compare data from different experiments, the information quality ratio is, therefore, in many cases, of easier interpretation. On the other hand, both mutual information and information quality ratio are always positive and, therefore, cannot provide information about the sign of the influence between quantities. Moreover, they require an accurate determination of the probability distribution functions of the variables involved. As the quality and amount of data available are not always sufficient to grant an accurate estimation of the probability distribution functions, it has been investigated whether neural computational tools can help and complement the aforementioned indicators. Specific encoders and autoencoders have been developed for the task of determining the total correlation between quantities related by a functional dependence, including information about the sign of their mutual influence. Both their accuracy and computational efficiencies have been addressed in detail, with extensive numerical tests using synthetic data. A careful analysis of the robustness against noise has also been performed. The neural computational tools typically outperform the traditional indicators in practically every respect.

Malaria, a disease with major health and socio-economic impacts, is driven by multiple factors, including a complex interaction with various climatic variables. In this paper, five methods developed for inferring causal relations between dynamic processes based on the information encapsulated in time series are applied on cases previously studied in literature by means of statistical methods. The causality detection techniques investigated in the paper are: a version of the kernel Granger causality, transfer entropy, recurrence plot, causal decomposition and complex networks. The methods provide coherent results giving a quite good confidence in the conclusions.

The most widely used forms of model selection criteria, the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), are expressed in terms of synthetic indicators of the residual distribution: the variance and the mean-squared error of the residuals respectively. In many applications in science, the noise affecting the data can be expected to have a Gaussian distribution. Therefore, at the same level of variance and mean-squared error, models, whose residuals are more uniformly distributed, should be favoured. The degree of uniformity of the residuals can be quantified by the Shannon entropy. Including the Shannon entropy in the BIC and AIC expressions improves significantly these criteria. The better performances have been demonstrated empirically with a series of simulations for various classes of functions and for different levels and statistics of the noise. In presence of outliers, a better treatment of the errors, using the Geodesic Distance, has proved essential.

A new measure for the characterization of interconnected dynamical systems coupling is proposed. The method is based on the representation of time series as weighted cross-visibility networks. The weights are introduced as the metric distance between connected nodes. The structure of the networks, depending on the coupling strength, is quantified via the entropy of the weighted adjacency matrix. The method has been tested on several coupled model systems with different individual properties. The results show that the proposed measure is able to distinguish the degree of coupling of the studied dynamical systems. The original use of the geodesic distance on Gaussian manifolds as a metric distance, which is able to take into account the noise inherently superimposed on the experimental data, provides significantly better results in the calculation of the entropy, improving the reliability of the coupling estimates. The application to the interaction between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole and to the influence of ENSO on influenza pandemic occurrence illustrates the potential of the method for real-life problems.

Understanding the details of the correlation between time series is an essential step on the route to assessing the causal relation between systems. Traditional statistical indicators, such as the Pearson correlation coefficient and the mutual information, have some significant limitations. More recently, transfer entropy has been proposed as a powerful tool to understand the flow of information between signals. In this paper, the comparative advantages of transfer entropy, for determining the time horizon of causal influence, are illustrated with the help of synthetic data. The technique has been specifically revised for the analysis of synchronization experiments. The investigation of experimental data from thermonuclear plasma diagnostics proves the potential and limitations of the developed approach.

Abstract: Modern experiments in Magnetic Confinement Nuclear Fusion can produce Gigabytes of data, mainly in form of time series. The acquired signals, composing massive databases, are typically affected by significant levels of noise. The interpretation of the time series can therefore become quite involved, particularly when tenuous causal relations have to be investigated. In the last years, synchronization experiments, to control potentially dangerous instabilities, have become a subject of intensive research. Their interpretation requires quite delicate causality analysis. In this paper, the approach of Information Geometry is applied to the problem of assessing the effectiveness of synchronization experiments on JET (Joint European Torus). In particular, the use of the Geodesic Distance on Gaussian Manifolds is shown to improve the results of advanced techniques such as Recurrent Plots and Complex Networks, when the noise level is not negligible. In cases affected by particularly high levels of noise, compromising the traditional treatments, the use of the Geodesic Distance on Gaussian Manifolds allows deriving quite encouraging results. In addition to consolidating conclusions previously quite uncertain, it has been demonstrated that the proposed approach permit to successfully analyze signals of discharges which were otherwise unusable, therefore salvaging the interpretation of those experiments.