Search

figure legends for supp. figures 1, 2, and 3

Supplementary Table S1: Spearman correlations (rho) between biomarkers; Supplementary Table S2: Pre-chemotherapy/bevacizumab concentrations of individual angiogenesis associated factors; Supplementary Table S3: comparisons between biomarker parameters by treatment Arm; Supplementary Table S4: comparisons between biomarker parameters by time since surgery; Supplementary Table S5: Validation of the identified biomarkers in the training dataset using bootstrap resampling technique; Supplementary Table S6: Tumour response by Ang1/Tie2 combination categories by treatment in the training set; Supplementary Table S7: Cox proportional hazard models confirming Ang1 and Tie2 as a joint biomarker in the validation dataset (N = 114)

Purpose: Randomized ovarian cancer trials, including ICON7, have reported improved progression-free survival (PFS) when bevacizumab was added to conventional cytotoxic therapy. The improvement was modest prompting the search for predictive biomarkers for bevacizumab.Experimental Design: Pretreatment training (n = 91) and validation (n = 114) blood samples were provided by ICON7 patients. Plasma concentrations of 15 angio-associated factors were determined using validated multiplex ELISAs. Our statistical approach adopted PFS as the primary outcome measure and involved (i) searching for biomarkers with prognostic relevance or which related to between-individual variation in bevacizumab effect; (ii) unbiased determination of cutoffs for putative biomarker values; (iii) investigation of biologically meaningfully predictive combinations of putative biomarkers; and (iv) replicating the analysis on candidate biomarkers in the validation dataset.Results: The combined values of circulating Ang1 (angiopoietin 1) and Tie2 (Tunica internal endothelial cell kinase 2) concentrations predicted improved PFS in bevacizumab-treated patients in the training set. Using median concentrations as cutoffs, high Ang1/low Tie2 values were associated with significantly improved PFS for bevacizumab-treated patients in both datasets (median, 23.0 months vs. 16.2; P = 0.003) for the interaction of Ang1–Tie2 treatment in Cox regression analysis. The prognostic indices derived from the training set also distinguished high and low probability for progression in the validation set (P = 0.008), generating similar values for HR (0.21 vs. 0.27) between treatment and control arms for patients with high Ang1 and low Tie2 values.Conclusions: The combined values of Ang1 and Tie2 are predictive biomarkers for improved PFS in bevacizumab-treated patients with ovarian cancer. These findings need to be validated in larger trials due to the limitation of sample size in this study. Clin Cancer Res; 20(17); 4549–58. ©2014 AACR.

Descriptive table or cohorts and results from sensitivity analyses

Results from individual participant meta-analysis of WC. Footnote to Supplementary Figure 2. Multivariable models include age, sex, study, alcohol, smoking, race and body mass index.

Background: Body mass index (BMI) is a risk factor for endometrial cancer. We quantified the risk and investigated whether the association differed by use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT), menopausal status, and histologic type.Methods: We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE (1966 to December 2009) to identify prospective studies of BMI and incident endometrial cancer. We did random-effects meta-analyses, meta-regressions, and generalized least square regressions for trend estimations assuming linear, and piecewise linear, relationships.Results: Twenty-four studies (17,710 cases) were analyzed; 9 studies contributed to analyses by HRT, menopausal status, or histologic type, all published since 2003. In the linear model, the overall risk ratio (RR) per 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI was 1.60 (95% CI, 1.52–1.68), P < 0.0001. In the piecewise model, RRs compared with a normal BMI were 1.22 (1.19–1.24), 2.09 (1.94–2.26), 4.36 (3.75–5.10), and 9.11 (7.26–11.51) for BMIs of 27, 32, 37, and 42 kg/m2, respectively. The association was stronger in never HRT users than in ever users: RRs were 1.90 (1.57–2.31) and 1.18 (95% CI, 1.06–1.31) with P for interaction = 0.003. In the piecewise model, the RR in never users was 20.70 (8.28–51.84) at BMI 42 kg/m2, compared with never users at normal BMI. The association was not affected by menopausal status (P = 0.34) or histologic type (P = 0.26).Conclusions: HRT use modifies the BMI-endometrial cancer risk association.Impact: These findings support the hypothesis that hyperestrogenia is an important mechanism underlying the BMI-endometrial cancer association, whilst the presence of residual risk in HRT users points to the role of additional systems. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 19(12); 3119–30. ©2010 AACR.

Results from individual participant meta-analysis of diabetes. Multivariable models include age, sex, study, alcohol, smoking, race and body mass index.

PDF file - 163K, Table S1: Comparison of baseline characteristics of the overall cohort including 566,401 participants and our analytic cohort including 203,177 participants in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study by gender.: Table S2: Correlations of anthropometric parameters in men and women in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study.: Table S3: Means and standard deviations of anthropometry parameters in men and women in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study.: Table S4: Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for risk of incident rectal cancer by gender across categories of anthropometric measures in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study.: Table S5: Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for risk of incident colon cancer across categories of anthropometric measures in women stratified by age in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study.: Table S6: Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for risk of incident colon cancer across categories of anthropometric measures in women stratified by colonic sub-site (distal vs. proximal) in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study.: Table S7: Hazard ratio, 95% confidence intervals of colon cancer and Δ HR across waist circumference measures in women with current hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study.: Table S8: Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for risk of incident colon cancer across categories of anthropometric measures in women stratified by hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study.: Table S9: Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for risk of incident rectal cancer across categories of anthropometric measures in women stratified by hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study.: Table S10: Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for risk of incident rectal cancer across categories of anthropometric measures in women stratified by hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study.: Table S11: Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for risk of incident colon cancer across categories of anthropometric measures in men and women with exclusion of the first 2 years of follow-up in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study.

Results from individual participant meta-analysis of BMI. Multivariable models include age, sex, study, alcohol, smoking, and race.

Several lines of evidence support the premise that screening colonoscopy reduces colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence, but there may be differential benefits for right- and left-sided tumors. To better understand the biological basis of this differential effect, we derived biomathematical models of CRC incidence trends in U.S. and U.K. populations, representing relatively high- and low-prevalence screening, respectively. Using the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) registries (both 1973–2006), we derived stochastic multistage clonal expansion (MSCE) models for right-sided (proximal colon) and left-sided (distal colon and rectal) tumors. The MSCE concept is based on the initiation-promotion-progression paradigm of carcinogenesis and provides a quantitative description of natural tumor development from the initiation of an adenoma (via biallelic tumor suppressor gene inactivation) to the clinical detection of CRC. From 1,228,036 (SEER: 340,582; ONS: 887,454) cases, parameter estimates for models adjusted for calendar-year and birth-cohort effects showed that adenoma initiation rates were higher for right-sided tumors, whereas, paradoxically, adenoma growth rates were higher for left-sided tumors. The net effect was a higher cancer risk in the right colon only after age 70 years. Consistent with this finding, simulations of adenoma development predicted that the relative prevalence for right- versus left-sided tumors increases with increasing age, a differential effect most striking in women. Using a realistic biomathematical description of CRC development for two nationally representative registries, we show age- and sex-dependent biological gradients for right- and left-sided colorectal tumors. These findings argue for an age-, sex-, and site-directed approach to CRC screening. Cancer Res; 70(13); 5419–29. ©2010 AACR.

Supplementary Methods, Figures 1-8, Table 1 from Colorectal Cancer Incidence Trends in the United States and United Kingdom: Evidence of Right- to Left-Sided Biological Gradients with Implications for Screening

Watch and wait after neoadjuvant treatment in rectal cancer: comparison of outcomes in patients with and without a complete response at first reassessment in the International Watch & Wait Database (IWWD)

Background: Excess body fatness, approximated by body mass index (BMI), is associated with higher risk of at least 13 cancer types and is the second-largest avoidable cause of cancer in many populations. Current epidemiologic evidence linking body fatness with cancer risk is largely based on a ‘once-only’ BMI measure which may fail to capture the life-course exposure to body fatness. Here, we test whether a novel metric that combines repeated BMI measures over an individual’s adult lifetime, the overweight-years metric, improves the performance characteristics for associations with cancer compared with a ‘once-only’ BMI measure. Methods: Within the ABACus 2 Consortium (4 US cohorts; 1 European cohort), we derived the overweight-years metric - a product of the degree of overweight (BMI minus 24.9 kg/m2) and the duration of overweight (in years). Using a random effects two-stage meta-analysis, we calculated the association between the overweight-years metric, and separately the cumulative degree and cumulative duration of overweight exposure with incident cancer by fitting multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models and comparing each metrics performance with BMI measured at a single time using Harrell’s C-statistic. Results: Out of 1,419,850 participants in the ABACus 2 consortium, 716,909 participants were included. Per standard deviation overweight-years, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio for obesity-related cancers in men was 1.15 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.17, I2: 0) and for women was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.18, I2: 0.94). For ‘once-only’ BMI, the per standard deviation multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio for obesity-related cancers in men was 1.16 (95% CI: 1.15,1.18, I2: 0) and for women was 1.13 (95% CI: 1.09,1.18, I2: 0.82). For most obesity-related cancers, both degree and duration of overweight were significantly associated with risk. The overweight-years metric had a C-statistic of 0.610 (95% CI: 0.569, 0.649) and once-only BMI had a C-statistic of 0.608 (95% CI: 0.566, 0.648) for combined obesity-related cancers in men. In women, the C-statistic for overweight-years was 0.562 (95% CI: 0.537, 0.587) and once-only BMI had a C-statistic of 0.566 (95% CI: 0.544, 0.588) for combined obesity-related cancers. The C-statistic of the overweight-years metric and BMI measured at a single time combined was 0.609 (95% CI: 0.567, 0.650) in men and 0.573 (95% CI: 0.546, 0.600) in women for combined obesity-related cancers. Conclusion: Overall, there were marginal differences in the predictive performance between the overweight-years metric and a ‘once-only’ baseline-BMI measure. These findings show that excess weight throughout adulthood is important in cancer development. Funding: CRUK, NIHR, NHLBI, NCI, NPCR. Citation Format: Nadin Hawwash, Matthew Sperrin, Glen P. Martin, Michael Cook, Charles E. Matthews, Marian L. Neuhouser, Corinne E. Joshu, Elizabeth A. Platz, Heinz Freisling, Marc Gunter, Rob Bristow, Andrew G. Renehan. Excess weight by degree and duration and cancer risk: an individual participant data (IPD) meta - analyses of over 1.4 million participants (ABACus2 consortium) [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2023; Part 1 (Regular and Invited Abstracts); 2023 Apr 14-19; Orlando, FL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2023;83(7_Suppl):Abstract nr 3034.

Background Excess body fatness, commonly approximated by a one-off determination of body mass index (BMI), is associated with increased risk of at least 13 cancers. Modelling of longitudinal BMI data may be more informative for incident cancer associations, e.g. using latent class trajectory modelling (LCTM) may offer advantages in capturing changes in patterns with time. Here, we evaluated the variation in cancer risk with LCTMs using specific age recall versus decade recall BMI. Methods We obtained BMI profiles for participants from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. We developed gender-specific LCTMs using recall data from specific ages 20 and 50 years (72,513 M; 74,837 W); decade data from 30s to 70s (42,113 M; 47,352 W) and a combination of both (74,106 M, 76,245 W). Using an established methodological framework, we tested 1:7 classes for linear, quadratic, cubic and natural spline shapes, and modelled associations for obesity-related cancer (ORC) incidence using LCTM class membership. Results Different models were selected depending on the data type used. In specific age recall trajectories, only the two heaviest classes were associated with increased risk of ORC. For the decade recall data, the shapes appeared skewed by outliers in the heavier classes but an increase in ORC risk was observed. In the combined models, at older ages the BMI values were more extreme. Conclusions Specific age recall models supported the existing literature changes in BMI over time are associated with increased ORC risk. Modelling of decade recall data might yield spurious associations.

Latent class trajectory models (LCTMs) are often used to identify subgroups of patients that are clinically meaningful in terms of longitudinal exposure and outcome, e.g. drug response patterns. These models are increasingly applied in medicine and epidemiology. However, in many published studies, it is not clear whether the chosen models, where subgroups of patients are identified, represent real heterogeneity in the population, or whether any associations with clinically meaningful characteristics are accidental. In particular, we note an apparent over-reliance on lowest AIC or BIC values. While these are objective measures of goodness of fit, and can help identify the optimal number of subgroups, they are not sufficient on their own to fully evaluate a given trajectory model. Here we demonstrate how longitudinal latent class models can substantially change by making small modifications in model specification, and the impact of this on the relationship to clinical outcomes. We show that the predicted trajectory patterns and outcome probabilities differ when pre-specified cubic versus linear shapes are tested on the same data. However, both could be interpreted to be the “correct” model. We emphasise that LCTMs, like all unsupervised approaches, are hypotheses generating, and should not be directly implemented in clinical practice without significant testing and validation.

Summary Background Watch and wait is a novel management strategy in patients with rectal cancer who have a clinical complete response after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Surveillance of these patients is generally intensive, because local regrowth (with the potential for salvage) occurs in 25% of patients, and distant metastases occur in 10% of patients. It is unclear for how long these patients should be followed up. To address this issue, we did conditional survival modelling using the International Watch & Wait Database (IWWD), which is a large-scale registry of patients with a clinical complete response after neoadjuvant chemotherapy who have been managed by a watch-and-wait strategy. Methods We did a retrospective, multicentre registry study using a dataset from the IWWD, which includes data from 47 clinics across 15 countries. We selected patients (aged ≥18 years) with rectal cancer who had a clinical complete response after neoadjuvant chemotherapy, and who were subsequently managed by a watch-and-wait strategy between Nov 25, 1991, and Dec 31, 2015. Patients who had not achieved a clinical complete response or who had undergone any surgical procedure were excluded. The criteria used for defining a clinical complete response and the specific surveillance strategies were at the discretion of each participating centre. We used conditional survival modelling to estimate the probability of patients remaining free of local regrowth or distant metastasis for an additional 2 years after sustaining a clinical complete response or being distant metastasis-free for 1, 3, and 5 years from the date of the decision to commence watch and wait. The primary outcomes were conditional local regrowth-free survival at 3 years, and conditional distant metastasis-free survival at 5 years. Findings We identified 793 patients in the IWWD with clinical complete response who had been managed by a watch-and-wait strategy. Median follow-up was 55·2 months (IQR 36·0–75·6). The probability of remaining free from local regrowth for an additional 2 years if a patient had a sustained clinical complete response for 1 year was 88·1% (95% CI 85·8–90·9), for 3 years was 97·3% (95·2–98·6), and for 5 years was 98·6% (97·6–100·0). The probably of remaining free from distant metastasis for a further 2 years in patients who had a clinical complete response without distant metastasis for 1 year was 93·8% (92·3–95·9), for 3 years was 97·8% (96·6–99·3), and for 5 years was 96·6% (94·0–98·9). Interpretation These results suggest that the intensity of active surveillance in patients with rectal cancer managed by a watch-and-wait approach could be reduced if they achieve and maintain a clinical complete response within the first 3 years of starting this approach. Funding European Registration of Cancer Care, financed by the European Society of Surgical Oncology, the Champalimaud Foundation Lisbon, the Bas Mulder Award, granted by the Alpe d’HuZes Foundation and the Dutch Cancer Society, the European Research Council Advanced Grant, and the National Institute of Health and Research Manchester Biomedical Research Centre.

IntroductionLiver resection is the only curative treatment for colorectal liver metastases (CLM). Resectability decision-making is therefore a key determinant of outcomes. Wide variation has been demonstrated in resectability decision-making, despite the existence of criteria. This paper summarises a study protocol to evaluate the potential added value of two novel assessment tools in assessing CLM technical resectability: the Hepatica preoperative MR scan (MR-based volumetry, Couinaud segmentation, liver tissue characteristics and operative planning tool) and the LiMAx test (hepatic functional capacity).Methods and analysisThis study uses a systematic multistep approach, whereby three preparatory workstreams aid the design of the final international case-based scenario survey:Workstream 1: systematic literature review of published resectability criteria.Workstream 2: international hepatopancreatobiliary (HPB) interviews.Workstream 3: international HPB questionnaire.Workstream 4: international HPB case-based scenario survey.The primary outcome measures are change in resectability decision-making and change in planned operative strategy, resulting from the novel test results. Secondary outcome measures are variability in CLM resectability decision-making and opinions on the role for novel tools.Ethics and disseminationThe study protocol has been approved by a National Health Service Research Ethics Committee and registered with the Health Research Authority. Dissemination will be via international and national conferences. Manuscripts will be published.Registration detailsThe CoNoR Study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (registration numberNCT04270851). The systematic review is registered on the PROSPERO database (registration number CRD42019136748).

Background Elevated childhood body mass index (BMI), commonly examined as a “once-only” value, increases the risk of cancer and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in adulthood. Continuous exposure to adiposity during childhood may further increase cancer risk. We examined whether longitudinal childhood BMI trajectories were associated with adult obesity-related cancer and the role of adult-onset T2D in these associations. Methods Five sex-specific latent class BMI trajectories were generated for 301 927 children (149 325 girls) aged 6-15 years from the Copenhagen School Health Records Register. Information on obesity-related cancers and T2D was obtained from national health registers. Incidence rate ratios (IRR), cumulative incidences, and confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using Poisson regressions. Results Compared with the average childhood BMI trajectory (containing approximately 40% of individuals), the rate of obesity-related cancer (excluding breast cancer) increased with higher childhood BMI trajectories among women. The highest rates occurred in the overweight (IRR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.17 to 1.38) and obesity (IRR = 1.79, 95% CI = 1.53 to 2.08) BMI trajectories. Similar patterns were observed among men. In contrast, women with the obesity childhood BMI trajectory had the lowest rate of pre- and postmenopausal breast cancer (IRR = 0.59, 95% CI = 0.43 to 0.80, and IRR = 0.41, 95% CI = 0.30 to 0.57, respectively). For all trajectories, the cumulative risk of obesity-related cancer increased with adult-onset T2D. Conclusion Consistent childhood overweight or obesity may increase the rates of adult obesity-related cancer and decrease the rates of breast cancer. Adult-onset T2D conferred additional risk for obesity-related cancer, but the effect did not differ across childhood BMI trajectories.

Introduction Bevacizumab improves survival outcomes in women diagnosed with epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). Pre-clinical data showed that the c-MET/VEGFR-2 heterocomplex negates VEGF inhibition through activation of c-MET signalling, leading to a more invasive and metastatic phenotype. We evaluated the clinical significance of c-MET and VEGFR-2 co-localisation and its association with VEGF pathway-related single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in women participating in the phase 3 trial, ICON7 (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00262847). Materials and methods Patients had FIGO stage I-IIA grade 3/poorly differentiated or clear cell carcinoma or stage IIB-IV epithelial ovarian, primary peritoneal or fallopian tube cancer. Immunofluorescence staining for co-localised c-MET and VEGFR-2 on tissue microarrays and genotyping of germline DNA from peripheral blood leukocytes for VEGFA and VEGFR-2 SNPs was performed. The significance of these biomarkers was assessed against survival. Results Tissue microarrays from 178 women underwent immunofluorescence staining. Multivariable analysis showed that greater c-MET/VEGFR-2 co-localisation predicted worse OS in patients treated with bevacizumab after adjusting for FIGO stage and debulking surgery outcome (hazard ratio [HR] 1.034, 95% confidence interval [95%CI] 1.010–1.059). Women in the c-MET/VEGFR-2HIGH group treated with bevacizumab demonstrated significantly reduced OS (39.3 versus > 60 months; HR 2.00, 95%CI 1.08–3.72). Germline DNA from 449 women underwent genotyping. In the bevacizumab group, those women with the VEGFR-2 rs2305945 G/G variant had a trend towards shorter PFS compared with G/T or T/T variants (18.3 versus 23.0 months; HR 0.74, 95%CI 0.53–1.03). Conclusions In bevacizumab-treated women diagnosed with EOC, high c-MET/VEGFR-2 co-localisation on tumour tissue and the VEGFR-2 rs2305945 G/G variant, which may be biologically related, were associated with worse survival outcomes.

A wealth of epidemiological evidence, combined with plausible biological mechanisms, present a convincing argument for a causal relationship between excess adiposity, commonly approximated as body mass index (BMI, kg/m2), and incident cancer risk. Beyond this relationship, there are a number of challenges posed in the context of interpreting whether being overweight (BMI 25.0–29.9 kg/m2) or obese (BMI ≥ 30.0 kg/m2) adversely influences disease progression, cancer mortality and survival. Elevated BMI (≥ 25.0 kg/m2) may influence treatment selection of, for example, the approach to surgery; the choice of chemotherapy dosing; the inclusion of patients into randomised clinical trials. Furthermore, the technical challenges posed by an elevated BMI may adversely affect surgical outcomes, for example, morbidity (increasing the risk of surgical site infections), reduced lymph node harvest (and subsequent risk of under-staging and under-treatment) and increased risk of margin positivity. Suboptimal chemotherapy dosing, associated with capping chemotherapy in obese patients as an attempt to avoid excess toxicity, might be a driver of poor prognostic outcomes. By contrast, the efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibition may be enhanced in patients who are obese, although in turn, this observation might be due to reverse causality. So, a central research question is whether being overweight or obese adversely affects outcomes either directly through effects of cancer biology or whether adverse outcomes are mediated through indirect pathways. A further dimension to this complex relationship is the obesity paradox, a phenomenon where being overweight or obese is associated with improved survival where the reverse is expected. In this overview, we describe a framework for evaluating methodological problems such as selection bias, confounding and reverse causality, which may contribute to spurious interpretations. Future studies will need to focus on prospective studies with well-considered methodology in order to improve the interpretation of causality.

Background We tested the hypothesis that body mass index (BMI) aged 20 years modifies the association of adult weight gain and breast cancer risk. Methods We recruited women (aged 47–73 years) into the PROCAS (Predicting Risk Of Cancer At Screening; Manchester, UK: 2009–2013) Study. In 47,042 women, we determined BMI at baseline and (by recall) at age 20 years, and derived weight changes. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for new breast cancer using Cox models and explored relationships between BMI aged 20 years, subsequent weight changes and breast cancer risk. Results With median follow-up of 5.6 years, 1142 breast cancers (post-menopausal at entry: 829) occurred. Among post-menopausal women at entry, BMI aged 20 years was inversely associated [HR per SD: 0.87 (95% CI: 0.79–0.95)], while absolute weight gain was associated with breast cancer [HR per SD:1.23 (95% CI: 1.14–1.32)]. For post-menopausal women who had a recall BMI aged 20 years 2 (75th percentile), absolute weight gain was associated with breast cancer [HR per SD: 1.31 (95% CIs: 1.21–1.42)], but there were no associations for women with a recall BMI aged 20 years of >23.4 kg/m2 (Pinteraction values Conclusions Adult weight gain increased post-menopausal breast cancer risk only among women who were 2 aged 20 years.

Background We evaluated oncological changes in patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the anus (SCCA) treated by chemoradiotherapy (CRT) from a large UK institute, to derive estimates of contemporary outcomes. Methods We performed a treatment-cohort analysis in 560 patients with non-metastatic SCCA treated with CRT over 25 years. The primary outcomes were 3-year loco-regional failure (LRF), 5-year overall survival (OS), and 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS). We developed prediction models; and overlaid estimates on published results from historic trials. Results Age distributions, proportions by gender and cT stage remained stable over time. The median follow-up was 61 (IQR: 36–79) months. Comparing the first period (1990–1994) with the last period (2010–2014), 3-year LRF declined from 33 to 16% (Ptrends Ptrends = 0.001); and 5-year CCS increased from 62% in to 80% (Ptrends = 0.001). For 2020, the models predicted a 3-year LRF of 14.7% (95% CIs: 0–31.3); 5-year OS of 74.7% (95% CIs: 54.6–94.9); and 5-year CSS of 85.7% (95% CIs: 75.3–96.0). Reported oncological outcomes from historic trials generally underestimated contemporary outcomes. Conclusions Current and predicted rates for 3-year LRF and 5-year survivals are considerably improved compared with those in historic trials.

Obesity is known to be associated with primary liver cancer (PLC), but the separate effects of excess abdominal and gluteofemoral size are unclear. Thus, we examined the association between waist and hip circumference with risk of PLC overall and by histologic type-hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). The Liver Cancer Pooling Project is a consortium of prospective cohort studies that include data from 1,167,244 individuals (PLC n = 2,208, HCC n = 1,154, ICC n = 335). Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using proportional hazards regression. Waist circumference, per 5 cm increase, was associated with an 11% increased PLC risk (HR = 1.11, 95%CI: 1.09-1.14), including when adjusted for hip circumference (HR = 1.12, 95%CI: 1.08-1.17) and also when restricted to individuals in a normal body mass index (BMI) range (18.5 to

Introduction Traditionally patients with colorectal peritoneal metastases (CRPM) were offered palliative chemotherapy and best supportive care. With the introduction of cytoreductive surgery (CRS) and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC), patients in the UK have been referred to nationally approved centres. This study describes the pattern of referral and outcomes of patients managed through one UK centre. Methods and Methods: A prospective register recorded referrals, demographics, prior treatment pathways, and specialist multidisciplinary team (MDT) decisions (2002-2015). Peritoneal cancer index (PCI) was recorded intra-operatively; complete cytoreduction was deemed when a CC0/1 was achieved. Complications were classified using NCI CTCAE. v.4. Median overall survivals (OS) were described for those treated by CRS/HIPEC and in derived estimates for patients with isolated peritoneal metastases treated by chemotherapy alone in the ARCAD trials consortium. Results Two-hundred-eighty-six patients with CRPM were referred. Despite increasing numbers of referrals annually, the proportion of patients selected for CRS/HIPEC decreased from 64.5%, to 40%, and to 37.1% for 2002–09, 2010–12, and 2013–15, respectively (p

Aims: We evaluated the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and cancer mortality in incident type 2 diabetes. Methods: We used the Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD (1998-2015), linked with the Office of National Statistics mortalities, and derived an incident type 2 diabetes cohort (N: 176,886; aged 30-85 years). We determined BMI ±12 months diabetes diagnosis. The primary outcome was cancer mortality, categorised into deaths from obesity-related cancers (ORCs) and non-ORCs. Secondary outcomes were site-specific cancer mortality and main causes of deaths (cancer, cardiovascular disease [CVD], non-cancer non-CVD). We developed gender-specific Cox models and expressed risk as hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), stratified by smoking status. Results: With 886,850 person years follow-up, 7,593 cancer deaths occurred. Among women who never smoked, there were positive associations between BMI and deaths from endometrial (HR per 5 kg/m2: 1.43 [95% CI 1.26-1.61]. Among men, associations between BMI and ORC mortality were inverse but attenuated towards null among never smokers and excluding deaths in the first 2 years. In men, the proportion of CVD deaths increased from 36.8% in BMI category 22.5 to 24.9 kg/m2 to 43.6% in BMI category ≥ 40 kg/m2 (p < 0.001).Conclusions: We found some relationships between BMI and cancer mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes, but interpretations need to account for smoking status, reverse causality, and deaths from CVD.

Bevacizumab improves survival outcomes in women diagnosed with epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). Pre-clinical data showed that the c-MET/VEGFR-2 heterocomplex negates VEGF inhibition through activation of c-MET signalling, leading to a more invasive and metastatic phenotype. We evaluated the clinical significance of c-MET and VEGFR-2 co-localisation and its association with VEGF pathway-related single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in women participating in the phase 3 trial, ICON7 (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00262847).Patients had FIGO stage I-IIA grade 3/poorly differentiated or clear cell carcinoma or stage IIB-IV epithelial ovarian, primary peritoneal or fallopian tube cancer. Immunofluorescence staining for co-localised c-MET and VEGFR-2 on tissue microarrays and genotyping of germline DNA from peripheral blood leukocytes for VEGFA and VEGFR-2 SNPs was performed. The significance of these biomarkers was assessed against survival.Tissue microarrays from 178 women underwent immunofluorescence staining. Multivariable analysis showed that greater c-MET/VEGFR-2 co-localisation predicted worse OS in patients treated with bevacizumab after adjusting for FIGO stage and debulking surgery outcome (hazard ratio [HR] 1.034, 95% confidence interval [95%CI] 1.010-1.059). Women in the c-MET/VEGFR-2In bevacizumab-treated women diagnosed with EOC, high c-MET/VEGFR-2 co-localisation on tumour tissue and the VEGFR-2 rs2305945 G/G variant, which may be biologically related, were associated with worse survival outcomes.

Introduction Guidelines suggest the laparoscopic approach may be safe and feasible in emergency general surgery. Despite this, the UK National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) rate of laparoscopic surgery remains low. Our earlier analysis of the NELA database identified factors associated with use of laparoscopy, then recommended further analysis to compare outcomes between laparoscopic and open surgery. Methods We obtained information from the NELA database (2013 - 2017) and performed logistic regression on all first operations during the hospital admission. Outcomes were compared between open and laparoscopic approach (fully laparoscopic, laparoscopic assisted and laparoscopic converted). The primary outcome was death during hospital admission; secondary outcomes were admission to intensive care unit (ICU), length of ICU stay and return to theatre. Results The cohort comprised 68,928 open (52% men, mean age 65) and 12,144 laparoscopic (51% men, mean age 58). In a model adjusted for all factors influencing primary or secondary outcomes (age, gender, p-possum, weekday versus weekend, operative time of day, malignancy, peritoneal soiling, CEPOD urgency, surgical grade and anaesthetist grade), death rates were significantly lower in the laparoscopic group (OR 0.65, 95% CI 0.59 – 0.71). Post-operative admission to ICU and ICU stay > 3 days were both significantly lower in the laparoscopic group (OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.56 – 0.62; OR 0.82, CI 0.75 – 0.89). There was no difference in return to theatre. Conclusions Outcomes for laparoscopy in emergency general surgery appear superior to open surgery, although there may be residual unmeasured confounding factors. Further analysis will compare outcomes between pathologies.

Aims Hepatic resection offers the only chance of cure for colorectal liver metastases (CLM), yet wide variation in resectability decision-making has been demonstrated. This study aims to evaluate the potential value of two novel assessment tools in aiding resectability decision-making: the LiMAx test (hepatic functional capacity) and HepaT1ca interactive pre-operative MR scan (MR-based volumetry and functional assessment). Methods This study utilises four workstreams: WS1 systematic review, WS2 international HPB interviews, WS3 international HPB online questionnaire, and WS4 online scenario-based survey to assess change in decision-making resulting from the novel tools. The WS3 questionnaire closed in January 2021; participation was increased by professional association endorsement (AUGIS, GBIHPBA, E-AHPBA, AHPBA, CHPBA, IHPBA). Results 197 complete responses were received from 37 countries in 6 continents. The clinical scenario in which HPB surgeons found resectability decisions most challenging was post-chemotherapy downsizing, with >90% of respondents agreeing that the following scenarios also present a challenge: recurrent disease post-liver resection, post-portal vein embolisation, and close proximity to major ducts/vessels. Substantial variation was demonstrated in the percentage future liver remnant at which surgeons preferred further investigation in all scenarios. >90% of respondents felt the novel tools would be potentially useful in decision-making; wide-ranging free-text feedback was also provided. Conclusions The questionnaire lends support to the previously documented variation in resectability decision-making and confirms international HPB community support for investigation of these novel tools. Response analysis has facilitated the appropriate case selection to best assess their potential utility in the WS4 survey, due to launch this spring.

Multimodal treatment strategies for patients with rectal cancer are increasingly including the possibility of organ preservation, through nonoperative management or local excision. Organ preservation strategies can enable patients with a complete response or near-complete clinical responses after radiotherapy with or without concomitant chemotherapy to safely avoid the morbidities associated with radical surgery, and thus to maintain anorectal function and quality of life. However, standardization of the key outcome measures of organ preservation strategies is currently lacking; this includes a lack of consensus of the optimal definitions and selection of primary end points according to the trial phase and design; the optimal time points for response assessment; response-based decision-making; follow-up schedules; use of specific anorectal function tests; and quality of life and patient-reported outcomes. Thus, a consensus statement on outcome measures is necessary to ensure consistency and facilitate more accurate comparisons of data from ongoing and future trials. Here, we have convened an international group of experts with extensive experience in the management of patients with rectal cancer, including organ preservation approaches, and used a Delphi process to establish the first international consensus recommendations for key outcome measures of organ preservation, in an attempt to standardize the reporting of data from both trials and routine practice in this emerging area. Patients with early-stage rectal cancer might potentially benefit from treatment with an organ-sparing approach, which preserves quality of life owing to avoidance of the need for permanent colostomy. Trials conducted to investigate this have so far been hampered by considerable inter-trial heterogeneity in several key features. In this Consensus Statement, the authors provide guidance on the optimal end points, response assessment time points, follow-up procedures and quality of life measures in an attempt to improve the comparability of clinical research in this area. Yorkshire Cancer Research Academic Fellowship fund [L389AA]; Yorkshire Cancer Research; Cancer Research UKCancer Research UK [CRUK/28301]

To interpret the genetic profile present in a patient sample, it is necessary to know which mutations have important roles in the development of the corresponding cancer type. Named entity recognition (NER) is a core step in the text mining pipeline which facilitates mining valuable cancer information from the scientific literature. However, due to the scarcity of related datasets, previous NER attempts in this domain either suffer from low performance when deep learning based models are deployed, or they apply feature-based machine learning models or rule-based models to tackle this problem, which requires intensive efforts from domain experts, and limit the model generalization capability. In this paper, we propose EPICURE, an ensemble pre-trained model equipped with a conditional random field pattern (CRF) layer and a span prediction pattern (Span) layer to extract cancer mutations from text. We also adopt a data augmentation strategy to expand our training set from multiple datasets. Experimental results on three benchmark datasets show competitive results compared to the baseline models, validating our model's effectiveness and advances in generalization capability.

Background: Circulating tumour cell (CTC) number is an independent prognostic factor in patients with small cell lung cancer (SCLC) but there is no consensus on the CTC threshold for prognostic significance. We undertook a pooled analysis of individual patient data to clinically validate CTC enumeration and threshold for prognostication.Methods: Four European cancer centres, experienced in CellSearch CTC enumeration for SCLC provided pseudo anonymised data for patients who had undergone pre-treatment CTC count. Data was collated, and Cox regression models, stratified by centre, explored the relationship between CTC count and survival. The added value of incorporating CTCs into clinico-pathological models was investigated using likelihood ratio tests.Results: A total of 367 patient records were evaluated. A one-unit increase in log-transformed CTC counts corresponded to an estimated hazard ratio (HR) of 1.24 (95% CI: 1.19-1.29, PConclusions: Higher pre-treatment CTC counts are a negative independent prognostic factor in SCLC when considered as a continuous variable or dichotomised counts of ≥15 or ≥50. Incorporating CTC counts, as a continuous variable, improves clinic-pathological prognostic models.

Background The DREAMtherapy (Dual REctal Angiogenesis MEK inhibition radiotherapy) trial is a novel intertwined design whereby two tyrosine kinase inhibitors (cediranib and selumetinib) were independently evaluated with rectal chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in an efficient manner to limit the extended follow-up period often required for radiotherapy studies. Patients and methods Cediranib or selumetinib was commenced 10 days before and then continued with RT (45 Gy/25#/5 wks) and capecitabine (825 mg/m2 twice a day (BID)). When three patients in the cediranib 15-mg once daily (OD) cohort were in the surveillance period, recruitment to the selumetinib cohort commenced. This alternating schedule was followed throughout. Three cediranib (15, 20 and 30 mg OD) and two selumetinib cohorts (50 and 75 mg BID) were planned. Circulating and imaging biomarkers of inflammation/angiogenesis were evaluated. Results In case of cediranib, dose-limiting diarrhoea, fatigue and skin reactions were seen in the 30-mg OD cohort, and therefore, 20 mg OD was defined as the maximum tolerated dose. Forty-one percent patients achieved a clinical or pathological complete response (7/17), and 53% (9/17) had an excellent clinical or pathological response (ECPR). Significantly lower level of pre-treatment plasma tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNFα) was found in patients who had an ECPR. In case of selumetinib, the 50-mg BID cohort was poorly tolerated (fatigue and diarrhoea); a reduced dose cohort of 75-mg OD was opened which was also poorly tolerated, and further recruitment was abandoned. Of the 12 patients treated, two attained an ECPR (17%). Conclusions This novel intertwined trial design is an effective way to independently investigate multiple agents with radiotherapy. The combination of cediranib with CRT was well tolerated with encouraging efficacy. TNFα emerged as a potential predictive biomarker of response and warrants further evaluation.

Introduction: We assessed the clinical validity of circulating tumour cell (CTC) quantification for prognostication of patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) by undertaking a pooled analysis of individual patient data. Methods: Nine European NSCLC CTC centres were asked to provide reported/unreported pseudo-anonymised data for patients with advanced NSCLC who participated in CellSearch CTC studies from January 2003 to March 2017. We used Cox regression models, stratified by centres, to establish the association between CTC count and survival. We assessed the added value of CTCs to prognostic clinicopathological models using likelihood ratio (LR) statistics and c-indices. Results: Seven out of nine eligible centres provided data for 550 patients with prognostic information for overall survival. CTC counts of ≥2 and ≥ 5 per 7·5 mL were associated with reduced progression-free survival (≥2 CTCs: hazard ratio [HR] = 1.72, p < 0·001; ≥5 CTCs: HR = 2.21, p < 0·001) and overall survival (≥2 CTCs: HR = 2·18, p < 0·001; ≥5 CTCs: HR = 2·75, p < 0·001), respectively. Survival prediction was significantly improved by addition of baseline CTC count to LR clinicopathological models (log-transformed CTCs p < 0·001; ≥2 CTCs p < 0·001; ≥5 CTCs p ≤ 0·001 for both survival end-points), whereas moderate improvements were observed with the use of c-index models. There was some evidence of between-centre heterogeneity, especially when examining continuous counts of CTCs. Conclusions: These data confirm CTCs as an independent prognostic indicator of progression-free survival and overall survival in advanced NSCLC and also reveal some evidence of between-centre heterogeneity. CTC count improves prognostication when added to full clinicopathological predictive models.

Obesity is the strongest risk factor for endometrial cancer (EC). To inform targeted screening and prevention strategies, we assessed the impact of obesity and subsequent bariatric surgery‐induced weight loss on endometrial morphology and molecular pathways implicated in endometrial carcinogenesis. Blood and endometrial tissue were obtained from women with class III–IV obesity (body mass index ≥40 and ≥50 kg/m2, respectively) immediately prior to gastric bypass or sleeve gastrectomy, and at two and 12 months’ follow up. The endometrium underwent pathological examination and immunohistochemistry was used to quantify proliferation (Ki‐67), oncogenic signaling (PTEN, pAKT, pERK) and hormone receptor (ER, PR) expression status. Circulating biomarkers of insulin resistance, reproductive function and inflammation were also measured at each time point. Seventy‐two women underwent bariatric surgery. At 12 months, the mean change in total and excess body weight was −32.7 and −62.8%, respectively. Baseline endometrial biopsies revealed neoplastic change in 10 women (14%): four had EC, six had atypical hyperplasia (AH). After bariatric surgery, most cases of AH resolved (5/6) without intervention (3/6) or with intrauterine progestin (2/6). Biomarkers of endometrial proliferation (Ki‐67), oncogenic signaling (pAKT) and hormone receptor status (ER, PR) were significantly reduced, with restoration of glandular PTEN expression, at 2 and 12 months. There were reductions in circulating biomarkers of insulin resistance (HbA1c, HOMA‐IR) and inflammation (hsCRP, IL‐6), and increases in reproductive biomarkers (LH, FSH, SHBG). We found an unexpectedly high prevalence of occult neoplastic changes in the endometrium of women undergoing bariatric surgery. Their spontaneous reversal and accompanying down‐regulation of PI3K‐AKT–mTOR signaling with weight loss may have implications for screening, prevention and treatment of this disease., What's new? Obesity is a major risk factor for endometrial cancer (EC). In this study, the authors found that, in obese women, bariatric surgery‐induced weight loss resulted in significant, beneficial changes in circulating biomarkers of insulin resistance, inflammation, and reproductive hormones, in endometrial morphology, and in molecular pathways that are implicated in endometrial carcinogenesis. The latter included changes in Ki‐67 expression and activation of the PI3K‐AKT‐mTOR oncogenic signaling pathway, including PTEN and pAKT. These results may have important implications for screening, prevention and treatment of EC.

Introduction Hepatic resection is the only potentially curative treatment for patients with colorectal liver metastases (CLM). Patient selection is key, but there is wide variation in practice. Pre-operative chemotherapy can improve oncological outcomes, however chemotherapy-associated liver injury (CALI) may hinder liver regenerative capacity. Standard pre-operative assessments fail to accurately capture factors such as CALI and future liver remnant (FLR) function. The CLiFF and CoNoR studies utilise two novel assessment techniques, aiming to improve patient outcomes. Method The CLiFF study prospectively assesses two primary outcomes in 35 patients undergoing pre-operative chemotherapy for CLM: 1) change in liver function (via LiMAx test: direct assessment of hepatic functional capacity), and 2) change in liver fat (via advanced MR imaging (in-house spectroscopy and modified Dixon technique, scaled up via Perspectum LiverMultiScan)). The CoNoR study assesses potential added benefit of these novel tools in CLM resectability decision-making via sequential workstreams: a systematic review and international hepatobiliary expert interviews inform the online survey, assessing added benefit via online MDT scenarios. Result Preliminary CLiFF analysis suggests that CALI changes in liver fat and function are unrelated. Liver fat analysis techniques are compared and correlated with digital histological analysis. The CoNoR systematic review identifies key factors influencing CLM resectability decision-making and informs the international expert interviews, scheduled to occur during a February 2020 international hepatobiliary conference. Conclusion These studies are the first to assess where these novel tools might be utilised to maximal patient benefit within the Hepatobiliary MDT, and the first systematic review in CLM resectability decision-making. Take-home message These two linked studies evaluate the use of two novel assessment tools in the treatment of colorectal liver metastases, with the potential to improve patient selection for curative resection and patient outcomes. PATEY PRIZE SESSION

Introduction: Body mass index (BMI) is often elevated at type 2 diabetes (T2D) diagnosis. Using latent class trajectory modelling (LCTM) of BMI, we examined whether weight loss after diagnosis influenced cancer incidence and all-cause mortality. Methods: From 1995 to 2010, we identified 7,708 patients with T2D from the Salford Integrated Record database (UK) and linked to the cancer registry for information on obesity-related cancer (ORC), non-ORC; and all-cause mortality. Repeated BMIs were used to construct sex-specific latent class trajectories. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox regression models. Results: Four sex-specific BMI classes were identified; stable-overweight, stable-obese, obese-slightly-decreasing, and obese-steeply-decreasing; comprising 41%, 45%, 13%, and 1% of women, and 45%, 37%, 17%, and 1% of men, respectively. In women, the stable-obese class had similar ORC risks as the obese-slightly-decreasing class, whereas the stable-overweight class had lower risks. In men, the obese-slightly-decreasing class had higher risks of ORC (HR = 1.86, 95% CI: 1.05–3.32) than the stable-obese class, while the stable-overweight class had similar risks No associations were observed for non-ORC. Compared to the stable-obese class, women (HR = 1.60, 95% CI: 0.99–2.58) and men (HR = 2.37, 95% CI: 1.66–3.39) in the obese-slightly-decreasing class had elevated mortality. No associations were observed for the stable-overweight classes. Conclusion: Patients who lost weight after T2D diagnosis had higher risks for ORC (in men) and higher all-cause mortality (both genders) than patients with stable obesity.

Introduction Cytoreductive surgery with hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (CRS/HIPEC) is an established treatment for pseudomyxoma peritonei (PMP) from perforated low-grade appendiceal mucinous neoplasms (LAMN II). In a selected group of LAMN II patients without established PMP, CRS/HIPEC can be performed laparoscopically (L-CRS/HIPEC); however the short-term benefits and safety of this approach have yet to be determined. This study aims to determine the short-term outcomes from a series of L-CRS/HIPEC LAMN II patients compared to those who have undergone a similar open operation (O-CRS/HIPEC) for low-volume PMP. Methods LAMN II patients undergoing L-CRS/HIPEC at a UK national peritoneal tumour centre were compared to O-CRS/HIPEC patients (peritoneal cancer index ≤ 7). Outcomes of interest included Clavien–Dindo complication grade, operative time, blood transfusions, high dependency unit (HDU) admission, length of hospital stay, and histopathological findings. Results 55 L-CRS/HIPEC were compared to 29 O-CRS/HIPEC patients (2003–2017). Groups were matched for age, sex, and procedures. Median operative time was 8.8 (IQR 8.1–9.5) h for L-CRS/HIPEC versus 7.3 (IQR 6.7–8) h for O-CRS/HIPEC (Mann–Whitney test p p Conclusion L-CRS/HIPEC for LAMN II takes longer; however patients have significantly reduced length of HDU and overall stay, without increased post-operative complications. A significant proportion of LAMN II patients undergoing L-CRS/HIPEC have extra-appendiceal acellular mucin with some cases demonstrating residual cellular epithelium from the LAMN II. The risk of these patients developing PMP without surgery is under current review.