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Background: There is limited information on long-term outcomes after stroke in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Current estimates of case fatality rate (CFR) in SSA are based on small sample sizes with varying study design and report heterogeneous results. Aims: We report CFR and functional outcomes from a large, prospective, longitudinal cohort of stroke patients in Sierra Leone and describe factors associated with mortality and functional outcome. Methods: A prospective longitudinal stroke register was established at both adult tertiary government hospitals in Freetown, Sierra Leone. It recruited all patients ⩾ 18 years with stroke, using the World Health Organization definition, from May 2019 until October 2021. To reduce selection bias onto the register, all investigations were paid by the funder and outreach conducted to raise awareness of the study. Sociodemographic data, National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), and Barthel Index (BI) were collected on all patients on admission, at 7 days, 90 days, 1 year, and 2 years post stroke. Cox proportional hazards models were constructed to identify factors associated with all-cause mortality. A binomial logistic regression model reports odds ratio (OR) for functional independence at 1 year. Results: A total of 986 patients with stroke were included, of which 857 (87%) received neuroimaging. Follow-up rate was 82% at 1 year, missing item data were Conclusion: Stroke affected younger people and resulted in high rates of fatality and functional impairment relative to global averages. Key clinical priorities for reducing fatality include preventing stroke-related complications through evidence-based stroke care, improved detection and management of atrial fibrillation, and increasing coverage of secondary prevention. Further research into care pathways and interventions to encourage care seeking for less severe strokes should be prioritized, including reducing the cost barrier for stroke investigations and care.

ObjectiveThis study aimed to use qualitative interviews with surgical providers to explore challenges and solutions to providing surgical and anaesthesia care in Sierra Leone’s hospitals.DesignData were collected through anonymous, semistructured interviews. We used a qualitative framework approach to analyse interview data and determine themes relating to challenges that were reported.SettingA purposive sample of 12 hospitals was selected throughout Sierra Leone to include district and referral hospitals of varying ownership (private, non-governmental organisation and government).ParticipantsThe most senior surgical provider available during each hospital site visit participated in a semistructured interview. A total of 12 interviews were conducted.ResultsProviders described both challenges and solutions relating to the following categories: equipment and supplies, access to services, human resources, infrastructure, management and patient factors. These challenges were found to affect surgical care in hospitals by delaying surgical care, decreasing operative capacity and decreasing quality of care. Providers identified not only the root causes of these challenges, but also the varied workarounds and solutions they employ to overcome them.ConclusionSurgical providers can offer important insights into challenges affecting surgical services in hospitals. Despite working in challenging environments with limited resources, providers have developed innovative solutions to improve surgical and anaesthesia care in hospitals in Sierra Leone. Qualitative research has an important role to play in improving understanding of the challenges facing surgeons in low-income countries.

Data sharing: The data used to inform this policy paper can be made able, upon reasonable request from Esmita Charani, e.charani@imperial.ac.uk. Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Addressing the silent pandemic of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a focus of the 2021 G7 meeting. A major driver of AMR and poor clinical outcomes is suboptimal antimicrobial use. Current research in AMR is inequitably focused on new drug development. To achieve antimicrobial security we need to balance AMR research efforts between development of new agents and strategies to preserve the efficacy and maximise effectiveness of existing agents. Combining a review of current evidence and multistage engagement with diverse international stakeholders (including those in healthcare, public health, research, patient advocacy and policy) we identified research priorities for optimising antimicrobial use in humans across four broad themes: policy and strategic planning; medicines management and prescribing systems; technology to optimise prescribing; and context, culture and behaviours. Sustainable progress depends on: developing economic and contextually appropriate interventions; facilitating better use of data and prescribing systems across healthcare settings; supporting appropriate and scalable technological innovation. Implementing this strategy for AMR research on the optimisation of antimicrobial use in humans could contribute to equitable global health security. Wellcome Trust; Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC); National Institute for Health Research ASPIRES project (Antibiotic use across Surgical Pathways: Investigating, Redesigning and Evaluating Systems) (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/arc/aspires/); National Institute for Health Research, UK Department of Health [HPRU-2012-10047] in partnership with Public Health England.

IntroductionThe COVID-19 pandemic has adversely affected health systems in many countries, but little is known about effects on health systems in sub-Saharan Africa. This study examines the effects of COVID-19 on health service utilisation in a sub-Saharan country, Sierra Leone.MethodsMixed-methods study using longitudinal nationwide hospital data (admissions, operations, deliveries and referrals), and qualitative interviews with healthcare workers and patients. Hospital data were compared across Quarters (Q) in 2020, with day 1 of Q2 representing the start of the pandemic in Sierra Leone. Admissions are reported in total and disaggregated by sex, service (surgical, medical, maternity, paediatric), and hospital type (government or private not for profit). Referrals in 2020 were compared with 2019, to assess whether any changes were the result of seasonality. Comparisons were performed using student’s t test. Qualitative data were analysed using thematic analysis.ResultsFrom Q1-Q2, weekly mean hospital admissions decreased by 14.7% (p=0.005). Larger decreases were seen in male 18.8%, than female 12.5% admissions. The largest decreases were in surgical admissions, a 49.8 % decrease (pConclusionThe study demonstrated a decrease in health service utilisation during Covid-19, the decrease is less than in other countries during COVID-19 and less than reported during the Ebola epidemic.What is already known?During the Ebola epidemic, Sierra Leone experienced drastic reductions in health service utilisation, that are thought to have led to high mortality.Reductions in healthcare utilisation have been reported in other countries due to the COVID-19 pandemic, however little is known about the effects of the pandemic on healthcare utilisation in sub Saharan Africa, including Sierra Leone.What are the new findings?Healthcare utilisation in Sierra Leone decreased modestly during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.Decreases in hospital admissions were less than those seen during Ebola and less than decreases seen globally.The largest reductions were seen in adult medical and surgical services, populations covered under the free healthcare act including maternal and child (under 5 years) health were more resilient.What do the new findings imply?The minimal reduction in service utilisation suggest that lessons have been learnt in protecting essential health services during outbreaks.Similar patterns of decreases in healthcare utilisation from COVID-19 to Ebola, should inform future preparedness and outbreak response planning.The resilience of services covered by the free healthcare initiative supports the argument for Universal Health Coverage in Sierra Leone.

IntroductionAs childhood mortality from infectious diseases falls across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the burden of disease attributed to surgical conditions is increasing. However, limited data exist on paediatric surgical outcomes in SSA. We compared the outcomes of five common paediatric surgical conditions in SSA with published benchmark data from high-income countries (HICs).MethodsA multicentre, international, prospective cohort study was undertaken in hospitals providing paediatric surgical care across SSA. Data were collected on consecutive children (birth to 16 years), presenting with gastroschisis, anorectal malformation, intussusception, appendicitis or inguinal hernia, over a minimum of 1 month, between October 2016 and April 2017. Participating hospitals completed a survey on their resources available for paediatric surgery.The primary outcome was all-cause in-hospital mortality. Mortality in SSA was compared with published benchmark mortality in HICs using χ2 analysis. Generalised linear mixed models were used to identify patient-level and hospital-level factors affecting mortality. A pResults1407 children from 51 hospitals in 19 countries across SSA were studied: 111 with gastroschisis, 188 anorectal malformation, 225 intussusception, 250 appendicitis and 633 inguinal hernia. Mortality was significantly higher in SSA compared with HICs for all conditions: gastroschisis (75.5% vs 2.0%), anorectal malformation (11.2% vs 2.9%), intussusception (9.4% vs 0.2%), appendicitis (0.4% vs 0.0%) and inguinal hernia (0.2% vs 0.0%), respectively. Mortality was 41.9% (112/267) among neonates, 5.0% (20/403) in infants and 1.0% (7/720) in children. Paediatric surgical condition, higher American Society of Anesthesiologists score at primary intervention, and needing/receiving a blood transfusion were significantly associated with mortality on multivariable analysis.ConclusionMortality from common paediatric surgical conditions is unacceptably high in SSA compared with HICs, particularly for neonates. Interventions to reduce mortality should focus on improving resuscitation and timely transfer at the district level, and preoperative resuscitation and perioperative care at paediatric surgical centres.

IntroductionOver 5 billion people in the world do not have access to safe, affordable surgical and anaesthesia care when needed. In order to improve health outcomes in patients with surgical conditions, both access to care and the quality of care need to be improved. A recent commission on high-quality health systems highlighted that poor-quality care is now a bigger barrier than non-utilisation of the health system for reducing mortality.AimTo carry out a systematic review to provide an evidence-based summary of hospital-based interventions associated with improved quality of surgical and anaesthesia care in sub-Saharan African countries (SSACs).Methods and analysisThree search strings (1) surgery and anaesthesia, (2) quality improvement hospital-based interventions and (3) SSACs will be combined. The following databases EMBASE, Global Health, MEDLINE, CINAHL, Web of Science and Scopus will be searched. Further relevant studies will be identified from national and international health organisations and publications and reference lists of all selected full-text articles. The review will include all type of original articles in English published between 2008 and 2019. Article screening, data extraction and assessment of methodological quality will be done by two reviewers independently and any disputes will be resolved by a third reviewer or team consensus. Three types of outcomes will be collected including clinical, process and implementation outcomes. The primary outcome will be mortality. Secondary outcomes will include other clinical outcomes (major and minor complications), as well as process and implementation outcomes. Descriptive statistics and outcomes will be summarised and discussed. For the primary outcome, the methodological rigour will be assessed.Ethics and disseminationThe results will be published in a peer reviewed open access journal and presented at national and international conferences. As this is a review of secondary data no formal ethical approval is required.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42019125570.

BackgroundThe COVID-19 outbreak in sub-Saharan African countries started after those in Asia, Europe and North America, on 28th February 2020. The susceptibility to infection of populations in that region has been debated. Outbreaks on the scale of those seen elsewhere would pose substantial challenges. There are reasons for concern that transmission may be high and difficult to control, rapidly exceeding capacity to meet the needs for hospitalization and critical care.MethodsWe obtained data on daily new confirmed cases for all 46 countries from the World Health Organization, and used these to model and visualize growth trajectories using an AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. We then estimated doubling times from growth rates estimated from Poisson regression models, and by back counting from the most recent observation. We also calculated the time from 1st to 50th case, and the time from 5th to 100th case. These indicators were compared with the same summary indicators of growth at the same stage of the outbreak in highly affected European countries.ResultsKenya was the only country with clear evidence of exponential growth. Nineteen countries had either reported no cases, were in the first few days of the outbreak, or had reported fewer than 10 cases over a period of two or more weeks. For the remaining 27 countries we identified four growth patterns: slow linear growth, more rapid linear growth, variable growth patterns over the course of the outbreak, and early signs of possible exponential growth. For those in the last three groups, doubling times ranged from 3 to 4 days, times from 1st to 50th case from 12 to 29 days, and from 5th to 100th case from eight to 15 days. These early indicators are comparable to those in European countries that have gone on to have substantial outbreaks, and time to 50th case was shorter suggesting lesser effectiveness of contact-tracing and quarantine in the early phase.ConclusionThe 46 sub-Saharan African countries, home to over one billion people, are at a tipping point with clear potential for the outbreak to follow a similar course as in HIC in the global north. Radical population-level physical distancing measures may be required, but their impact on poor, disadvantaged and vulnerable people and communities need mitigating. Health systems in the region need urgent technical and material support, with testing, personal protection, and hospital/ critical care.