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Abstract Background Preoperative health optimisation for elective surgery entails supporting patients to improve their health in preparation for their treatment and recovery. While there is consensus that this process should address obesity, approaches vary across England. Despite guidance from the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence to the contrary, restrictive approaches with body mass index thresholds for referral to arthroplasty are in use. This qualitative study aimed to investigate the views of professionals on the current use and future implications of these policies. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 20 professionals including clinicians, commissioners, policymakers, and health service managers, with experience of developing and/or implementing health optimisation policies for elective arthroplasty. Participants were sampled from areas in England with and without restrictive policies. We undertook thematic analysis of the interview data. Results Participants described pre-surgical health optimisation as an important trigger for health improvement but identified current resourcing and inadequacies in provision of weight management support as significant barriers to success. Participants expressed concerns about the appropriateness and fairness of including obesity as a determinant to restrict access to surgery. They described short-term financial pressures underlying the use of restrictive body mass index thresholds and a lack of an evidence base, such that policies amounted to rationing and risked exacerbations of health inequalities. The study identified four priorities for improvements to future health optimisation practices: developing and implementing national guidance with flexibility for local variation, initiating patient engagement in primary care with onward integration across all services, improving resourcing to support effective equitable impact, and addressing wider determinants of obesity through societal change. Conclusions Overall, participants had limited expectations of the impact of health optimisation policies on obesity without additional support, investment, and national guideline implementation. They raised strong concerns over current restrictive approaches. We conclude that addressing concerns around weight management support service availability and impacts on health inequalities is essential for shaping effective health optimisation policies. Future policy direction should support health optimisation to be offered early (ideally in primary care). Health optimisation interventions should be non-restrictive, inclusive, and well-monitored, particularly around equality impact.

Aims: During total knee replacement (TKR), surgeons can choose whether or not to resurface the patella, with advantages and disadvantages of each approach. Recently, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recommended always resurfacing the patella, rather than never doing so. NICE found insufficient evidence on selective resurfacing (surgeon’s decision based on intraoperative findings and symptoms) to make recommendations. If effective, selective resurfacing could result in optimal individualized patient care. This protocol describes a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of primary TKR with always patellar resurfacing compared to selective patellar resurfacing. Methods: The PAtellar Resurfacing Trial (PART) is a patient- and assessor-blinded multicentre, pragmatic parallel two-arm randomized superiority trial of adults undergoing elective primary TKR for primary osteoarthritis at NHS hospitals in England, with an embedded internal pilot phase (ISRCTN 33276681). Participants will be randomly allocated intraoperatively on a 1:1 basis (stratified by centre and implant type (cruciate-retaining vs cruciate-sacrificing)) to always resurface or selectively resurface the patella, once the surgeon has confirmed sufficient patellar thickness for resurfacing and that constrained implants are not required. The primary analysis will compare the Oxford Knee Score (OKS) one year after surgery. Secondary outcomes include patient-reported outcome measures at three months, six months, and one year (Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score, OKS, EuroQol five-dimension five-level questionnaire, patient satisfaction, postoperative complications, need for further surgery, resource use, and costs). Cost-effectiveness will be measured for the lifetime of the patient. Overall, 530 patients will be recruited to obtain 90% power to detect a four-point difference in OKS between the groups one year after surgery, assuming up to 40% resurfacing in the selective group. Conclusion: The trial findings will provide evidence about the clinical and cost-effectiveness of always patellar resurfacing compared to selective patellar resurfacing. This will inform future NICE guidelines on primary TKR and the role of selective patellar resurfacing. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(6):464–478.

Objectives Our aim was to identify which patients are likely to stay in hospital longer following total hip replacement surgery.Design Longitudinal, observational study used routinely collected data.Setting Data were collected from an NHS Trust in South-West England between 2016 and 2019.Participants 2352 hip replacement patients had complete data and were included in analysis.Primary and secondary outcome measures Three measures of length of stay were used: a count measure of number of days spent in hospital, a binary measure of ≤7 days/>7 days in hospital and a binary measure of remaining in hospital when medically fit for discharge.Results The mean length of stay was 5.4 days following surgery, with 18% in hospital for more than 7 days, and 11% staying in hospital when medically fit for discharge. Longer hospital stay was associated with older age (OR=1.06, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.08), being female (OR=1.42, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.81) and more comorbidities (OR=3.52, 95% CI 1.45 to 8.55) and shorter length of stay with not having had a recent hospital admission (OR=0.44, 95% CI 0.32 to 0.60). Results were similar for remaining in hospital when medically fit for discharge, with the addition of an association with highest socioeconomic deprivation (OR=2.08, 95% CI 1.37 to 3.16).Conclusions Older, female patients with more comorbidities and from more socioeconomically deprived areas are likely to remain in hospital for longer following surgery. This study produced regression models demonstrating consistent results across three measures of prolonged hospital stay following hip replacement surgery. These findings could be used to inform surgery planning and when supporting patient discharge following surgery.

IntroductionCancer-associated cachexia (CC) is a progressive syndrome characterized by unintentional weight loss, muscle atrophy, fatigue, and poor outcomes that affects most patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). The ability to identify and classify CC stage along its continuum early in the disease process is challenging but critical for management.ObjectivesThe main objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of CC stage overall and by sex and race and ethnicity among treatment-naïve PDAC cases using clinical, nutritional, and functional criteria. Secondary objectives included identifying the prevalence and predictors of higher symptom burden, supportive care needs, and quality of life (QoL), and examining their influence on overall survival (OS).Materials and methodsA population-based multi-institutional prospective cohort study of patients with PDAC was conducted between 2018 and 2021 by the Florida Pancreas Collaborative. Leveraging patient-reported data and laboratory values, participants were classified at baseline into four stages [non-cachexia (NCa), pre-cachexia (PCa), cachexia (Ca), and refractory cachexia (RCa)]. Multivariate regression, Kaplan Meier analyses, and Cox regression were conducted to evaluate associations.ResultsCC stage was estimated for 309 PDAC cases (156 females, 153 males). The overall prevalence of NCa, PCa, Ca, and RCa was 12.9%, 24.6%, 54.1%, and 8.4%, respectively. CC prevalence across all CC stages was highest for males and racial and ethnic minorities. Criteria differentiated NCa cases from other groups, but did not distinguish PCa from Ca. The most frequently reported symptoms included weight loss, fatigue, pain, anxiety, and depression, with pain significantly worsening over time. The greatest supportive care needs included emotional and physical domains. Males, Black people, and those with RCa had the worst OS.ConclusionsUsing clinical, nutritional, and functional criteria, nearly one-quarter of the PDAC cases in our diverse, multi-institutional cohort had PCa and 62.5% had Ca or RCa at the time of diagnosis. The PCa estimate is higher than that reported in prior studies. We recommend these criteria be used to aid in CC classification, monitoring, and management of all incident PDAC cases. Findings also highlight the recommendation for continued emotional support, assistance in alleviating pain, and supportive care needs throughout the PDAC treatment journey.

Abstract Background Hip fractures are devastating injuries causing disability, dependence, and institutionalisation, yet hospital care is highly variable. This study aimed to determine hospital organisational factors associated with recovery of mobility and change in patient residence after hip fracture. Methods A cohort of patients aged 60 + years in England and Wales, who sustained a hip fracture from 2016 to 2019 was examined. Patient-level Hospital Episodes Statistics, National Hip Fracture Database, and mortality records were linked to 101 factors derived from 18 hospital-level organisational metrics. After adjustment for patient case-mix, multilevel models were used to identify organisational factors associated with patient residence at discharge, and mobility and residence at 120 days after hip fracture. Results Across 172 hospitals, 165,350 patients survived to discharge, of whom 163,230 (99%) had post-hospital discharge destination recorded. 18,323 (11%) died within 120 days. Among 147,027 survivors, 58,344 (40%) across 143 hospitals had their residence recorded, and 56,959 (39%) across 140 hospitals had their mobility recorded, at 120 days. Nineteen organisational factors independently predicted residence on hospital discharge e.g., return to original residence was 31% (95% confidence interval, CI:17–43%) more likely if the anaesthetic lead for hip fracture had time allocated in their job plan, and 8–13% more likely if hip fracture service clinical governance meetings were attended by an orthopaedic surgeon, physiotherapist or anaesthetist. Seven organisational factors independently predicted residence at 120 days. Patients returning to their pre-fracture residence was 26% (95%CI:4–42%) more likely if hospitals had a dedicated hip fracture ward, and 20% (95%CI:8–30%) more likely if treatment plans were proactively discussed with patients and families on admission. Seventeen organisational factors predicted mobility at 120 days. More patients re-attained their pre-fracture mobility in hospitals where (i) care involved an orthogeriatrician (15% [95%CI:1-28%] improvement), (ii) general anaesthesia was usually accompanied by a nerve block (7% [95%CI:1-12%], and (iii) bedside haemoglobin testing was routine in theatre recovery (13% [95%CI:6-20%]). Conclusions Multiple, potentially modifiable, organisational factors are associated with patient outcomes up to 120 days after a hip fracture, these factors if causal should be targeted by service improvement initiatives to reduce variability, improve hospital hip fracture care, and maximise patient independence.

IntroductionHand osteoarthritis is more common in women, and its risk increases around the time of the menopause. We set out to describe the timing between menopause and the onset of symptomatic hand osteoarthritis (OA), and associations with the use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) or its discontinuation, describing any identifiable subgroups of women.MethodsRetrospective healthcare-records study of sequential women referred to a specialist hand OA clinic, 2007–2015. Confirmation of hand OA diagnosis was by clinican, by accepted criteria. Demographics and clinical variables were from healthcare-records, recorded by standardised proforma. Outcomes of interest were reported age of onset of hand symptoms, reported age at final menstrual period (FMP), time from FMP to reported onset of hand symptoms and time from cessation of HRT to reported onset of hand symptoms. Exposure categories for systemic HRT use were never users, current users, previous users. Analysis of Variance compared groups; linear regression analysed associations of exposure with outcome.Results82/92(89%) of eligible women were post-menopausal, mean age at FMP 49.9 years (SD5.4). In these post-menopausal women, median time from FMP to hand symptom onset was 3 years. 48/82 (59%) developed hand symptoms within the defined peri-menopausal period (FMP ± 4 years), whilst some women developed their symptoms before or after (range −25, 30 years). In women who discontinued HRT prior to symptom onset, the median time from HRT cessation to onset of hand symptoms was 6 months. Past HRT users were older at hand symptom onset than women who had not taken HRT [coeff.4.7 years (0.92, 8.39); P = 0.015].ConclusionsThis study adds to evidence associating the menopause/sex hormone deficiency with hand OA symptom onset in a sizeable subgroup of women (but not all). HRT use/cessation appears to influence the timing of onset of hand OA symptoms. It is not possible to interpret from this type of study whether sex hormone deficiency is causative of disease or modulates its symptoms. It is also not possible to judge whether painful hand osteoarthritis in post-menopausal women is a subtype of disease. Further investigation is indicated of sex-specific subtypes and potential for personalised medicine for post-menopausal women with hand osteoarthritis, as a clearly definable high-risk subgroup.

BackgroundPatients with symptomatic knee osteoarthritis may undergo non-surgical interventions such as intra-articular steroid injections and knee arthroscopy. This study aimed to investigate their association with the timing and outcomes of subsequent primary knee replacement.Methods and findingsObservational retrospective analysis of linked Clinical Practice Research Datalink, Hospital Episode Statistics, Patient Reported Outcome Measures (CPRD GOLD-HES-PROMS) data of 38,494 patients undergoing primary knee replacements in England. Prior use of intra-articular steroid injections and knee arthroscopy were identified. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs were estimated for primary outcomes of revision and reoperation using Cox regression. Secondary outcomes included time from first diagnosis of ipsilateral knee osteoarthritis to knee replacement, 6-month post-operative Oxford Knee Scores (OKS), mortality (90-days and 3-months), and post-operative surgical site infection (SSI) (3-months) using linear and logistic regression. Prior steroid injections were associated with an increased risk of revision (HR = 1.25 95%CI (1.06 to 1.49)), re-operation (HR = 1.18 95%CI (1.05 to 1.32)), and SSI (HR = 3.10 95%CI (1.14 to 8.46). Timing from diagnosis of knee osteoarthritis to knee replacement was 6 months longer in patients receiving steroid injections. Knee arthroscopy was associated with an increased risk of revision (HR = 3.14 95%CI (2.64 to 3.73)), re-operation (HR = 3.25 95%CI (2.89 to 3.66)), lower post-operative OKS -1.63 95%CI (-2.31 to -0.95). Both interventions were associated with a lower risk of mortality.ConclusionsSteroid injection and knee arthroscopy prior to primary knee replacement are each associated with worse outcomes. The observed association of lower mortality risk is suggestive of confounding by indication. The observed associations in this study could be used to inform shared decision making with patients on the treatment pathway for knee osteoarthritis.

Abstract Background Despite their widespread use, the impact of commissioners’ policies for body mass index (BMI) for access to elective surgery is not clear. Policy use varies by locality, and there are concerns that these policies may worsen health inequalities. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of policies for BMI on access to hip replacement surgery in England. Methods A natural experimental study using interrupted time series and difference-in-differences analysis. We used National Joint Registry data for 480,364 patients who had primary hip replacement surgery in England between January 2009 and December 2019. Clinical commissioning group policies introduced before June 2018 to alter access to hip replacement for patients with overweight or obesity were considered the intervention. The main outcome measures were rate of surgery and patient demographics (BMI, index of multiple deprivation, independently funded surgery) over time. Results Commissioning localities which introduced a policy had higher surgery rates at baseline than those which did not. Rates of surgery fell after policy introduction, whereas rates rose in localities with no policy. ‘Strict’ policies mandating a BMI threshold for access to surgery were associated with the sharpest fall in rates (trend change of − 1.39 operations per 100,000 population aged 40 + per quarter-year, 95% confidence interval − 1.81 to − 0.97, P

Objectives This study aimed to develop a simulation model to support orthopaedic elective capacity planning.Methods An open-source, generalisable discrete-event simulation was developed, including a web-based application. The model used anonymised patient records between 2016 and 2019 of elective orthopaedic procedures from a National Health Service (NHS) Trust in England. In this paper, it is used to investigate scenarios including resourcing (beds and theatres) and productivity (lengths of stay, delayed discharges and theatre activity) to support planning for meeting new NHS targets aimed at reducing elective orthopaedic surgical backlogs in a proposed ring-fenced orthopaedic surgical facility. The simulation is interactive and intended for use by health service planners and clinicians.Results A higher number of beds (65–70) than the proposed number (40 beds) will be required if lengths of stay and delayed discharge rates remain unchanged. Reducing lengths of stay in line with national benchmarks reduces bed utilisation to an estimated 60%, allowing for additional theatre activity such as weekend working. Further, reducing the proportion of patients with a delayed discharge by 75% reduces bed utilisation to below 40%, even with weekend working. A range of other scenarios can also be investigated directly by NHS planners using the interactive web app.Conclusions The simulation model is intended to support capacity planning of orthopaedic elective services by identifying a balance of capacity across theatres and beds and predicting the impact of productivity measures on capacity requirements. It is applicable beyond the study site and can be adapted for other specialties.

Aims: To review the evidence and reach consensus on recommendations for follow-up after total hip and knee arthroplasty. Methods: A programme of work was conducted, including: a systematic review of the clinical and cost-effectiveness literature; analysis of routine national datasets to identify pre-, peri-, and postoperative predictors of mid-to-late term revision; prospective data analyses from 560 patients to understand how patients present for revision surgery; qualitative interviews with NHS managers and orthopaedic surgeons; and health economic modelling. Finally, a consensus meeting considered all the work and agreed the final recommendations and research areas. Results: The UK poSt Arthroplasty Follow-up rEcommendations (UK SAFE) recommendations apply to post-primary hip and knee arthroplasty follow-up. The ten-year time point is based on a lack of robust evidence beyond ten years. The term 'complex cases' refers to individual patient and surgical factors that may increase the risk for arthroplasty failure. For Orthopaedic Data Evaluation Panel (ODEP) 10A* minimum implants, it is safe to disinvest in routine follow-up from one to years post-non-complex hip and knee arthroplasty provided there is rapid access to orthopaedic review. For ODEP 10A* minimum implants in complex cases, or non-ODEP 10A* minimum implants, periodic follow-up post-hip and knee arthroplasty may be required from one to ten years. At ten years post-hip and knee arthroplasty, clinical and radiological evaluation is recommended. After ten years post-hip and knee arthroplasty, frequency of further follow-up should be based on the ten-year assessment; ongoing rapid access to orthopaedic review is still required. Conclusion: Complex cases, implants not meeting the ODEP 10A* criteria, and follow-up after revision surgery are not covered by this recommendation. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(2):72–78.

Abstract Background Follow-up visits 5 or 7 years after surgery were recommended for people having primary hip or knee replacement. The benefits of this practice to patients and the healthcare system, however, have not yet been specifically examined. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between long-term follow-up outpatient hospital visits and revision rates for patients who undergo primary knee or hip replacement surgery. Methods Cohorts were identified for patients undergoing knee or hip replacement surgery using medical records from primary care practices within the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD dataset linked to hospital records from the English Hospital Episodes Statistics (HES) data. Two groups of patients were compared in terms of revision and mortality rates: those with at least one long-term (between five and 10 years since primary surgery) follow-up visit at the orthopaedic department (‘Follow-up’ group), and those without (‘No follow-up’ group). Results A total of 9856 (4349 in the Follow-up group) patients with knee replacement and 10,837 (4870 in the Follow-up group) with hip replacement were included in the analysis. For knee replacement, the incidence of revision was 3.6% for those followed-up and 0.6% for those not followed-up. An adjusted regression model confirmed the difference in the hazard ratio (HR) for revision was statistically significant (HR: 5.65 [95% CI 3.62 to 8.81]). Mortality at 4 years was lower for the Follow-up (17%) compared to the No follow-up group (21%), but this difference was not statistically significant (HR: 0.95 [0.84 to 1.07]). For hip replacement, the incidence of revision rates were 3.2 and 1.4% for the follow-up and not follow-up groups, respectively, the difference being statistically significant (HR: 2.34 [1.71 to 3.20]). Mortality was lower for the Follow-up (15%) compared to the No follow-up group (21%), but the difference was not statistically significant (HR: 0.91 [0.81 to 1.02]). Conclusion Patients attending follow-up orthopaedic consultations show a higher risk of revision surgery compared to those who are not followed-up. A cause for this difference could not be identified in this study but a likely explanation is that surgeons play an effective role as ultimate arbitrators when identifying patients to be included in long-term follow-up lists.

Abstract Background Commissioning policies are in place in England that alter access to hip and knee arthroplasty based on patients’ body mass index and smoking status. Our objectives were to ascertain the prevalence, trend and nature of these policies, and consider the implications for new integrated care systems (ICSs). Methods Policy data were obtained from an internet search for all current and historic clinical commissioning group (CCG) hip and knee arthroplasty policies and use of Freedom of Information (FOI) requests to each CCG. Descriptive analyses of policy type, explicit threshold criteria and geography are reported. Estimates were made of the uptake of policies by ICSs based on the modal policy type of their constituent CCGs. Results There were 106 current and 143 historic CCGs in England at the time of the search in June 2021. Policy information was available online for 56.2% (140/249) CCGs. With the addition of information from FOIs, complete policy information was available for 94.4% (235/249) of CCGs. Prevalence and severity of policies have increased over time. For current CCGs, 67.9% (72/106) had a policy for body mass index (BMI) and 75.5% (80/106) had a policy for smoking status for hip or knee arthroplasty. Where BMI policies were in place, 61.1% (44/72) introduced extra waiting time before surgery or restricted access to surgery based on BMI thresholds (modal threshold: BMI of 40 kg/m2, range 30–45). In contrast, where smoking status policies were in place, most offered patients advice or optional smoking cessation support and only 15% (12/80) introduced extra waiting time or mandatory cessation before surgery. It is estimated that 40% of ICSs may adopt a BMI policy restrictive to access to arthroplasty. Conclusions Access policies to arthroplasty based on BMI and smoking status are widespread in England, have increased in prevalence since 2013, and persist within new ICSs. The high variation in policy stringency on BMI between regions is likely to cause inequality in access to arthroplasty and to specialist support for affected patients. Further work should determine the impact of different types of policy on access to surgery and health inequalities.

AimsSeveral studies have reported that patients presenting during the evening or weekend have poorer quality healthcare. Our objective was to examine how timely surgery for patients with severe open tibial fracture varies by day and time of presentation and by type of hospital. This cohort study included patients with severe open tibial fractures from the Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN).MethodsProvision of prompt surgery (debridement within 12 hours and soft-tissue coverage in 72 hours) was examined, using multivariate logistic regression to derive adjusted risk ratios (RRs). Time was categorized into three eight-hour intervals for each day of the week. The models were adjusted for treatment in a major trauma centre (MTC), sex, age, year of presentation, injury severity score, injury mechanism, and number of operations each patient received.ResultsWe studied 8,258 patients from 175 hospitals. Patients presenting during the day (08:00 to 15:59; risk ratio (RR) 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02 to 1.20) were more likely to receive debridement within 12 hours, and patients presenting at night (16:00 to 23:59; RR 0.56, 95% CI 0.51 to 0.62) were less likely to achieve the target; triage to a MTC had no effect. Day of presentation was associated with soft-tissue coverage within 72 hours; patients presenting on a Thursday or Friday being less likely to receive this surgery within 72 hours (Thursday RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.97; Friday RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.98), and the standard less likely to be achieved for those treated in ‘non-MTC’ hospitals (RR 0.76, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.82).ConclusionVariations in care were observed for timely surgery for severe open tibial fractures with debridement surgery affected by time of presentation and soft-tissue coverage affected by day of presentation and type of hospital. The variation is unwarranted and highlights that there are opportunities to substantially improve the delivery and quality of care for patients with severe open tibial fracture.Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(12):941–952.

Abstract Background Delirium is common after hip fracture surgery, affecting up to 50% of patients. The incidence of delirium may be influenced by mode and conduct of anaesthesia. We examined the effect of spinal anaesthesia (with and without sedation) compared with general anaesthesia on early outcomes following hip fracture surgery, including delirium. Methods We used prospective data on 107,028 patients (2018 to 2019) from the National Hip Fracture Database, which records all hip fractures in patients aged 60 years and over in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Patients were grouped by anaesthesia: general (58,727; 55%), spinal without sedation (31,484; 29%), and spinal with sedation (16,817; 16%). Outcomes (4AT score on post-operative delirium screening; mobilisation day one post-operatively; length of hospital stay; discharge destination; 30-day mortality) were compared between anaesthetic groups using multivariable logistic and linear regression models. Results Compared with general anaesthesia, spinal anaesthesia without sedation (but not spinal with sedation) was associated with a significantly reduced risk of delirium (odds ratio (OR)=0.95, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.92–0.98), increased likelihood of day one mobilisation (OR=1.06, CI=1.02–1.10) and return to original residence (OR=1.04, CI=1.00–1.07). Spinal without sedation (p

Abstract Background Disparities in stillbirth and preterm birth persist even after correction for ethnicity and social deprivation, demonstrating that there is wide geographical variation in the quality of care. To address this inequity, Tommy’s National Centre for Maternity Improvement developed the Tommy’s Clinical Decision Tool, which aims to support the provision of “the right care at the right time”, personalising risk assessment and care according to best evidence. This web-based clinical decision tool assesses the risk of preterm birth and placental dysfunction more accurately than current methods, and recommends best evidenced-based care pathways in a format accessible to both women and healthcare professionals. It also provides links to reliable sources of pregnancy information for women. The aim of this study is to evaluate implementation of Tommy’s Clinical Decision Tool in four early-adopter UK maternity services, to inform wider scale-up. Methods The Tommy’s Clinical Decision Tool has been developed involving maternity service users and healthcare professionals in partnership. This mixed-methods study will evaluate: maternity service user and provider acceptability and experience; barriers and facilitators to implementation; reach (whether particular groups are excluded and why), fidelity (degree to which the intervention is delivered as intended), and unintended consequences. Data will be gathered over 25 months through interviews, focus groups, questionnaires and through the Tommy’s Clinical Decision Tool itself. The NASSS framework (Non-adoption or Abandonment of technology by individuals and difficulties achieving Scale-up, Spread and Sustainability) will inform data analysis. Discussion This paper describes the intervention, Tommy’s Clinical Decision Tool, according to TiDIER guidelines, and the protocol for the early adopter implementation evaluation study. Findings will inform future scale up. Trial registration This study was prospectively registered on the ISRCTN registry no. 13498237 , on 31st January 2022.

Objectives To explore the impact of a temporary cancellation of elective surgery in winter 2017 on trends in primary hip and knee replacement at a major National Health Service (NHS) Trust, and whether lessons can be learnt about efficient surgery provision.Design and setting Observational descriptive study using interrupted time series analysis of hospital records to explore trends in primary hip and knee replacement surgery at a major NHS Trust, as well as patient characteristics, 2016–2019.Intervention A temporary cancellation of elective services for 2 months in winter 2017.Outcomes NHS-funded hospital admissions for primary hip or knee replacement, length of stay and bed occupancy. Additionally, we explored the ratio of elective to emergency admissions at the Trust as a measure of elective capacity, and the ratio of public to private provision of NHS-funded hip and knee surgery.Results After winter 2017, there was a sustained reduction in the number of knee replacements, a decrease in the proportion of most deprived people having knee replacements and an increase in average age for knee replacement and comorbidity for both types of surgery. The ratio of public to private provision dropped after winter 2017, and elective capacity generally has reduced over time. There was clear seasonality in provision of elective surgery, with less complex patients admitted during winter.Conclusions Declining elective capacity and seasonality has a marked effect on the provision of joint replacement, despite efficiency improvements in hospital treatment. The Trust has outsourced less complex patients to independent providers, and/or treated them during winter when capacity is most limited. There is a need to explore whether these are strategies that could be used explicitly to maximise the use of limited elective capacity, provide benefit to patients and value for money for taxpayers.

BackgroundThe current assessment of recovery after total hip or knee replacement is largely based on the measurement of health outcomes through self-report and clinical observations at follow-up appointments in clinical settings. Home activity-based monitoring may improve assessment of recovery by enabling the collection of more holistic information on a continuous basis. ObjectiveThis study aimed to introduce orthopedic surgeons to time-series analyses of patient activity data generated from a platform of sensors deployed in the homes of patients who have undergone primary total hip or knee replacement and understand the potential role of these data in postoperative clinical decision-making. MethodsOrthopedic surgeons and registrars were recruited through a combination of convenience and snowball sampling. Inclusion criteria were a minimum required experience in total joint replacement surgery specific to the hip or knee or familiarity with postoperative recovery assessment. Exclusion criteria included a lack of specific experience in the field. Of the 9 approached participants, 6 (67%) orthopedic surgeons and 3 (33%) registrars took part in either 1 of 3 focus groups or 1 of 2 interviews. Data were collected using an action-based approach in which stimulus materials (mock data visualizations) provided imaginative and creative interactions with the data. The data were analyzed using a thematic analysis approach. ResultsEach data visualization was presented sequentially followed by a discussion of key illustrative commentary from participants, ending with a summary of key themes emerging across the focus group and interview data set. ConclusionsThe limitations of the evidence are as follows. The data presented are from 1 English hospital. However, all data reflect the views of surgeons following standard national approaches and training. Although convenience sampling was used, participants’ background, skills, and experience were considered heterogeneous. Passively collected home monitoring data offered a real opportunity to more objectively characterize patients’ recovery from surgery. However, orthopedic surgeons highlighted the considerable difficulty in navigating large amounts of complex data within short medical consultations with patients. Orthopedic surgeons thought that a proposed dashboard presenting information and decision support alerts would fit best with existing clinical workflows. From this, the following guidelines for system design were developed: minimize the risk of misinterpreting data, express a level of confidence in the data, support clinicians in developing relevant skills as time-series data are often unfamiliar, and consider the impact of patient engagement with data in the future. International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)RR2-10.1136/bmjopen-2018-021862

BackgroundWhile the United Kingdom National Health Service aimed to reduce social inequalities in the provision of joint replacement, it is unclear whether these gaps have reduced. We describe secular trends in the provision of primary hip and knee replacement surgery between social deprivation groups.Methods and findingsWe used the National Joint Registry to identify all hip and knee replacements performed for osteoarthritis from 2007 to 2017 in England. The Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) 2015 was used to identify the relative level of deprivation of the patient living area. Multilevel negative binomial regression models were used to model the differences in rates of joint replacement. Choropleth maps of hip and knee replacement provision were produced to identify the geographical variation in provision by Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs). A total of 675,342 primary hip and 834,146 primary knee replacements were studied. The mean age was 70 years old (standard deviation: 9) with 60% and 56% of women undergoing hip and knee replacements, respectively. The overall rate of hip replacement increased from 27 to 36 per 10,000 person-years and knee replacement from 33 to 46. Inequalities of provision between the most (reference) and least affluent areas have remained constant for both joints (hip: rate ratio (RR) = 0.58, 95% confidence interval [0.56, 0.60] in 2007, RR = 0.59 [0.58, 0.61] in 2017; knee: RR = 0.82 [0.80, 0.85] in 2007, RR = 0.81 [0.80, 0.83] in 2017). For hip replacement, CCGs with the highest concentration of deprived areas had lower overall provision rates, and CCGs with very few deprived areas had higher provision rates. There was no clear pattern of provision inequalities between CCGs and deprivation concentration for knee replacement. Study limitations include the lack of publicly available information to explore these inequalities beyond age, sex, and geographical area. Information on clinical need for surgery or patient willingness to access care were unavailable.ConclusionsIn this study, we found that there were inequalities, which remained constant over time, especially in the provision of hip replacement, by degree of social deprivation. Providers of healthcare need to take action to reduce this unwarranted variation in provision of surgery.

Abstract Background Approximately 20% of patients experience chronic pain after total knee replacement (TKR). The impact of chronic pain after TKR on primary care services in the UK is currently unknown. The aim of this study was to compare primary care consultations and pain medicine prescriptions between patients with and without chronic pain after TKR. Methods Data from 5,055 patients who received TKR between 2009 and 2016 with anonymised linked data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Gold (CPRD) and English Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) Patient Reported Outcome Measures (PROMs) programme were analysed. The exposure time was from 10 years pre-operative to eight years post-operative. Patients with a score ≤ 14 on the Oxford Knee Score pain component scale at 6 months post-operative were classified as having chronic pain after TKR. Primary care consultations and prescribed pain medicines were quantified, and costs calculated based on national cost data. Results 721 patients (14%) had chronic pain after TKR. The prevalence and costs of primary care consultations and pain medicine prescriptions per year were consistently higher for patients with chronic pain after TKR compared with those without chronic pain after TKR; these differences were observed both before and after surgery. There was a substantial and sustained increase in the cost of opioid prescriptions after surgery for patients with chronic pain after TKR, peaking at seven years post-operative. Conclusions Increased primary care consultations and pain medicine prescriptions associated with chronic pain after TKR represent a considerable financial cost to primary care services. Evaluation of interventions to reduce the risk of developing this pain condition and improve the early management of pain after TKR are needed to improve outcomes for patients and reduce costs to healthcare services.

Background and purpose — The surgical treatment options for severe knee osteoarthritis are unicompartmental (UKR) and total knee replacement (TKR). For patients, functional outcomes are more important than revision rate. We compared the patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) of both implant types using a large PROMs dataset. Patients and methods — We analysed a propensity-matched comparison of 38,716 knee replacements (19,358 UKRs and 19,358 TKRs) enrolled in the National Joint Registry and the English National PROM collection programme. Subgroup analyses were performed in different age groups. Results — 6-month postoperative Oxford Knee Score (OKS) for UKR and TKR were 38 (SD 9.4) and 36 (SD 9.4) respectively. A higher proportion of UKRs had an excellent OKS (≥ 41) compared with TKR (47% vs 36%) and a lower proportion of poor OKS (< 27) scores (13% vs. 16%). The 6-month OKS was higher in all age groups for UKR compared with TKR, with the difference increasing in older age groups. The mean 6-month EQ-5D score was 0.78 (SD 0.25) and 0.75 (SD 0.25) respectively. The improvement in EQ-5D resulting from surgery was higher for UKR than TKR both overall and in all age groups. All comparisons were statistically significant (p < 0.05). Interpretation — UKR had a greater proportion of excellent OKS scores and lower proportion of poor scores than TKR. Additionally, the quality of life was higher for UKR compared with TKR. These factors should be balanced against the higher revision rate for UKR when choosing which procedure to perform.

Objectives To identify risk factors associated with prolonged length of hospital stay and staying in hospital longer than medically necessary following primary knee replacement surgery.Design Retrospective, longitudinal observational study.Setting Elective knee replacement surgeries between 2016 and 2019 were identified using routinely collected data from an NHS Trust in England.Participants There were 2295 knee replacement patients with complete data included in analysis. The mean age was 68 (SD 11) and 60% were female.Outcome measures We assessed a binary length of stay outcome (>7 days), a continuous length of stay outcome (≤30 days) and a binary measure of whether patients remained in hospital when they were medically fit for discharge.Results The mean length of stay was 5.0 days (SD 3.9), 15.4% of patients were in hospital for >7 days and 7.1% remained in hospital when they were medically fit for discharge. Longer length of stay was associated with older age (b=0.08, 95% CI 0.07 to 0.09), female sex (b=0.36, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.67), high deprivation (b=0.98, 95% CI 0.47 to 1.48) and more comorbidities (b=2.48, 95% CI 0.15 to 4.81). Remaining in hospital beyond being medically fit for discharge was associated with older age (OR=1.07, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.09), female sex (OR=1.71, 95% CI 1.19 to 2.47) and high deprivation (OR=2.27, 95% CI 1.27 to 4.06).Conclusions The regression models could be used to identify which patients are likely to occupy hospital beds for longer. This could be helpful in scheduling operations to aid hospital efficiency by planning these patients’ operations for when the hospital is less busy.

Objective: To identify research priorities for intra-articular corticosteroid injections for osteoarthritis using a Delphi study. Design: In the Round 1 questionnaire, participants generated up to five potential research topics related to corticosteroid injections for osteoarthritis. These responses were collated and grouped to develop candidate research questions. Literature searches were conducted and questions with a lack of evidence were included in the next round. In Round 2, importance ratings (1–9; not important to very important) were assigned to each question. Those questions given an importance rating of 7–9 by ​≥ ​70% of participants were carried forward. In Round 3, participants were provided with the group ratings and the rating process was repeated to develop the final research priority list. Results: All three Delphi rounds were completed by 75 participants (82%; 34 patients, 21 healthcare professionals and 20 academics). A total of 310 research topics were generated in Round 1, from which 26 research questions were developed. None had been robustly answered by research and therefore all were included in the Round 2 questionnaire. In Round 2, 14 research questions were retained; all 14 were prioritised in Round 3 and included in the final research priority list. The questions covered long-term effects, clinical and cost-effectiveness, measurement of outcomes, comparison to other treatments, provision, safety, identifying responders, maximising benefits, patient experience, delaying the need for joint replacement, and dosage. Conclusion: Using a robust consensus technique with key stakeholders, we have developed a research priority list to guide future research into corticosteroid injections for osteoarthritis.

Objectives Pre-surgical ‘health optimisation’ programmes aim to improve patients’ health and to reduce their need for surgery. Routinely-collected data does not provide sufficient insight into whether or how these programmes meet their intended outcomes. The aim was to link routinely-collected NHS data with bespoke research questionnaire data to address this insufficiency. Approach A study was designed to identify and collect data from a patient cohort eligible for a health optimisation programme (offering weight management and smoking cessation support) to determine programme uptake and patient outcomes. Patient and public involvement (PPI) group engagement revealed support for the use of data linkage between routinely-collected NHS data and study questionnaires, and shaped the study proposal. The HDRUK-supported regional ‘Systemwide Dataset’ of NHS routinely-collected data would provide demographics, healthcare usage and clinical outcomes. Questionnaires would provide data on patient decision-making and engagement with weight management or smoking cessation and detailed pain, function, wellbeing and activation measures. Results The study received Health Research Authority approval and recruited six Participant Identification Centres. PPI co-production of the study’s participant-facing documents addressed the need for appropriate description of the novel data linkage process for potential participants. The data linkage design will offer an important advantage of a reduction in the participants’ time and recall accuracy needed in completing questionnaires due to the ability to omit duplicate demographic and healthcare usage fields. Further potential advantages include the ability to compare participants with patients who decline participation in the questionnaires, and long-term follow up of patient outcomes due to the continuation of routinely-collected data. Challenges have been faced in operationalizing the data collection and linkage processes due to decisions over data controllership of the combined dataset. Conclusion Linkage between routinely-collected NHS data and bespoke research questionnaires was deemed ethically acceptable, and could offer significant advantages in combining demographics, healthcare usage, outcomes and experience data of a cohort. Systemic decision-making to specify and streamline acceptable processes for this data linkage are important next steps.

Few studies on adult pneumococcal septic arthritis are sufficiently large enough to assess both epidemiological trends following routine pneumococcal immunization and clinical disease. With major shifts in serotypes causing invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), we wanted to determine the clinical phenotype of adult septic arthritis caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of pneumococcal infections in Bristol and Bath, UK, 2006–2018. We defined pneumococcal septic arthritis as adults with clinically-confirmed septic arthritis, with pneumococcus isolated from sterile-site culture or urinary antigen test positivity. Clinical records were reviewed for each patient in the cohort. Septic arthritis accounted for 1.7% of all IPD cases. 45 cases of adult pneumococcal septic arthritis occurred, with disease typically affecting older adults and those with underlying comorbidity. 67% patients had another focus of infection during their illness. 66% patients required increased care on discharge and 43% had reduced range of movement. In-hospital case fatality rate was 6.7%. One-year patient mortality was 31%. Currently most cases of adult pneumococcal septic arthritis are due to non-PCV13 serotypes which are associated with more severe disease. Non-PCV-13 serotypes had higher prevalence of concomitant pneumococcal infection at another site (73.7% versus 36.6%), increased intensive care or high-dependency unit requirement (32.4% versus 0%), and increased inpatient and 1-year case fatality rate (8.8% versus 0%, and 32.4% versus 27.4% respectively) compared to PCV-13 serotypes. Pneumococcal septic arthritis remains a small proportion of IPD. However, there is significant associated morbidity and mortality, and pneumococcal septic arthritis requires monitoring in coming years.

Background and purpose: The main treatments for severe medial compartment knee arthritis are unicompartmental (UKR) and total knee replacement (TKR). UKRs have higher revision rates, particularly for aseptic loosening, therefore the cementless version was introduced. We compared the outcomes of matched cementless UKRs and TKRs. Patients and methods: The National Joint Registry was linked to the English Hospital Episode Statistics and Patient Reported Outcome Measures (PROMs) databases. 10,552 cementless UKRs and 10,552 TKRs were propensity matched and regression analysis used to compare revision/reoperation risks. 6-month PROMs were compared. UKR results were stratified by surgeon caseload into low- (< 10 UKRs/year), medium- (10 to < 30 UKRs/year), and high-volume (≥ 30 UKRs/year). Results: 8-year cementless UKR revision survival for the 3 respective caseloads were 90% (95% CI 87–93), 93% (CI 91–95), and 96% (CI 94–97). 8-year reoperation survivals were 76% (CI 71–80), 81% (CI 78–85), and 84% (CI 82–86) respectively. For TKR the 8-year implant survivals for revision and reoperation were 96% (CI 95–97) and 81% (CI 80–83). The HRs for the 3 caseload groups compared with TKR for revision were 2.0 (CI 1.3–2.9), 2.0 (CI 1.6–2.7), and 1.0 (CI 0.8–1.3) and for reoperation were 1.2 (CI 1.0–1.4), 0.9 (CI 0.8–1.0), and 0.6 (CI 0.5–0.7). 6-month Oxford Knee Score (OKS) (39 vs. 37) and EQ-5D (0.80 vs. 0.77) were higher (p < 0.001) for the cementless UKR. Interpretation: Cementless UKRs have higher revision and reoperation rates than TKR for low-volume UKR surgeons, similar reoperation but higher revision rates for mid-volume surgeons, and lower reoperation and similar revision rates for high-volume surgeons. Cementless UKR also had better PROMs.

Objective As part of the STAR Programme, a comprehensive study exploring long-term pain after surgery, we investigated how pain and function, health-related quality of life (HRQL), and healthcare resource use evolved over 5 years after total knee replacement (TKR) for those with and without chronic pain 1 year after their primary surgery.Methods We used data from the Clinical Outcomes in Arthroplasty Study prospective cohort study, which followed patients undergoing TKR from two English hospitals for 5 years. Chronic pain was defined using the Oxford Knee Score Pain Subscale (OKS-PS) where participants reporting a score of 14 or lower were classified as having chronic pain 1-year postsurgery. Pain and function were measured with the OKS, HRQL using the EuroQoL-5 Dimension, resource use from yearly questionnaires, and costs estimated from a healthcare system perspective. We analysed the changes in OKS-PS, HRQL and resource use over a 5-year follow-up period. Multiple imputation accounted for missing data.Results Chronic pain was reported in 70/552 operated knees (12.7%) 1 year after surgery. The chronic pain group had worse pain, function and HRQL presurgery and postsurgery than the non-chronic pain group. Those without chronic pain markedly improved right after surgery, then plateaued. Those with chronic pain improved slowly but steadily. Participants with chronic pain reported greater healthcare resource use and costs than those without, especially 1 year after surgery, and mostly from hospital readmissions. 64.7% of those in chronic pain recovered during the following 4 years, while 30.9% fluctuated in and out of chronic pain.Conclusion Although TKR is often highly beneficial, some patients experienced chronic pain postsurgery. Although many fluctuated in their pain levels and most recovered over time, identifying people most likely to have chronic pain and supporting their recovery would benefit patients and healthcare systems.

Aims: This study explores the reported rate of surgical site infection (SSI) after hip fracture surgery in published studies concerning patients treated in the UK. Methods: Studies were included if they reported on SSI after any type of surgical treatment for hip fracture. Each study required a minimum of 30 days follow-up and 100 patients. Meta-analysis was undertaken using a random effects model. Heterogeneity was expressed using the I2 statistic. Risk of bias was assessed using a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) system. Results: There were 20 studies reporting data from 88,615 patients. Most were retrospective cohort studies from single centres. The pooled incidence was 2.1% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.54% to 2.62%) across ‘all types’ of hip fracture surgery. When analyzed by operation type, the SSI incidences were: hemiarthroplasty 2.87% (95% CI 1.99% to 3.75%) and sliding hip screw 1.35% (95% CI 0.78% to 1.93%). There was considerable variation in definition of infection used, as well as considerable risk of bias, particularly as few studies actively screened participants for SSI. Conclusion: Synthesis of published estimates of infection yield a rate higher than that seen in national surveillance procedures. Biases noted in all studies would trend towards an underestimate, largely due to inadequate follow-up.

Background and purpose — Registries report high revision rates after unicompartmental knee replacement (UKR) due, in part, to aseptic loosing. In an attempt to improve Oxford UKR femoral component fixation a new design was introduced with a Twin rather than a Single peg. We used the National Joint Registry (NJR) to compare the 5-year outcomes of the Single and Twin Peg cemented Oxford UKRs. Patients and methods — We performed a retrospective observational study using NJR data on propensity score matched Single and Twin Peg UKRs (matched for patient, implant and surgical factors). Data on 2,834 Single Peg and 2,834 Twin Peg were analyzed. Cumulative implant survival was calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method and comparisons between groups performed using Cox regression models. Results — In the matched cohort, the mean follow up for both Single and Twin Peg UKRs was 3.3 (SD 2) and 3.4 years (SD 2) respectively. The 5-year cumulative implant survival rates for Single Peg and Twin Peg were 94.8% (95% CI 93.6–95.8) and 96.2% (CI 95.1–97.1) respectively. Implant revision rates were statistically significantly lower in the Twin Peg (hazard ratio [HR)] = 0.74; p = 0.04). The revision rate for femoral component aseptic loosening decreased significantly (p = 0.03) from 0.4% (n = 11) with the Single Peg to 0.1% (n = 3) with the Twin Peg. The revision rate for pain decreased significantly (p = 0.01) from 0.8% (n = 23) with the Single Peg to 0.3% (n = 9) with the Twin Peg. No other reasons for revision had significant differences in revision rates. Interpretation — The revision rate for the cemented Twin Peg Oxford UKR was 26% less than the Single Peg Oxford UKR. This was mainly because the revision rates for femoral loosening and pain more than halved. This suggests that the Twin Peg component should be used in preference to the Single Peg design.

Background and purpose — Unicompartmental knee replacement (UKR) offers advantages over total replacement but has higher revision rates, particularly for aseptic loosening. The cementless Oxford UKR was introduced to address this. We undertook a registry-based matched comparison of cementless and cemented UKRs. Patients and methods — From 40,552 Oxford UKRs identified by the National Joint Registry for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Isle of Man (NJR) we propensity score matched, based on patient, surgical, and implant factors, 7,407 cemented and 7,407 cementless UKRs (total = 14,814). Results — The 10-year cumulative implant survival rates for cementless and cemented UKRs was 93% (95% CI 90–96) and 90% (CI 88–92) respectively, with this difference being significant (HR 0.76; p = 0.002). The risk of revision for aseptic loosening was less than half (p < 0.001) in the cementless (0.42%) compared with the cemented group (1.00%), and the risk of revision also decreased for unexplained pain (to 0.46% from 0.74%; p = 0.03) and lysis (to 0.04% from 0.15%; p = 0.03). However, the risk of revision for periprosthetic fracture increased significantly (p = 0.01) in the cementless (0.26%) compared with the cemented group (0.09%). 10-year patient survival rates were similar (HR 1.2; p = 0.1). Interpretation — The cementless UKR has improved 10-year implant survival compared with the cemented UKR, independent of patient, implant, and surgical factors. This improved survival in the cementless group was primarily the result of lower revision rate for aseptic loosening, unexplained pain, and lysis, suggesting the fixation of the cementless was superior. However, there was a small increased risk of revision for periprosthetic fracture with the cementless implant.

Abstract Background Osteoporosis and osteopenia are conditions characterised by reduced bone mineral density (BMD). There is concern that bone with reduced BMD may not provide sufficient fixation for cementless components which primarily rely on the quality of surrounding bone. The aim of our study was to report the midterm clinical outcomes of patients with reduced BMD undergoing cementless unicompartmental knee replacements (UKR). Our hypothesis was that there would be no difference in outcome between patients with normal bone and those with reduced BMD. Methods From a prospective cohort of 70 patients undergoing cementless UKR surgery, patients were categorised into normal (n = 20), osteopenic (n = 38) and osteoporotic groups (n = 12) based on their central dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) scans according to the World Health Organization criteria. Patients were followed up by independent research physiotherapists and outcome scores; Oxford Knee Score (OKS), Tegner score, American Knee Society Score Functional (AKSS-F) and Objective (AKSS-O) were recorded preoperatively and at a mean of 4 years postoperatively. The prevalence of reoperations, revisions and mortality was also recorded at a mean of 5 years postoperatively. Results There were no significant differences in the midterm postoperative OKS (P = 0.83), Tegner score (P = 0.17) and AKSS-O (P = 0.67). However, the AKSS-F was significantly higher (P = 0.04) in normal (90, IQR 37.5) compared to osteoporotic (65, IQR 35) groups. There were no significant differences (P = 0.82) between normal and osteopenic bone (80, IQR 35). The revision prevalence was 5%, 2.6% and 0% in the normal, osteopenic and osteoporotic groups respectively. The reoperation prevalence was 5%, 7.9% and 0% respectively. There were no deaths in any group related to the implant. Conclusions We found that patients with reduced BMD could safely undergo cementless UKR surgery and have similar clinical outcomes to those with normal BMD. However, larger studies with longer follow-up are needed to confirm our findings and ensure that cementless fixation is safe in patients with reduced BMD.

Objective To identify patients at risk of mid-late term revision of knee replacement (KR) to inform targeted follow-up.Design Analysis of linked national datasets from primary and secondary care (Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD GOLD), National Joint Registry (NJR), English Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) and Patient Reported Outcome Measures (PROMs)).Participants Primary elective KRs aged ≥18 years.Event of interest Revision surgery ≥5 years (mid–late term) postprimary KR.Statistical methods Cox regression modelling to ascertain risk factors of mid–late term revision. HRs and 95% CIs assessed association of sociodemographic factors, comorbidities, medication, surgical variables and PROMs with mid–late term revision.Results NJR-HES-PROMs data were available from 2008 to 2011 on 188 509 KR. CPRD GOLD-HES data covered 1995–2011 on 17 378 KR. Patients had minimum 5 years postprimary surgery to end 2016. Age and gender distribution were similar across datasets; mean age 70 years, 57% female. In NJR, there were 8607 (4.6%) revisions, median time-to-revision postprimary surgery 1.8 years (range 0–8.8), with 1055 (0.6%) mid–late term revisions; in CPRD GOLD, 877 (5.1%) revisions, median time-to-revision 4.2 years (range 0.02–18.3), with 352 (2.0%) mid–late term revisions.Reduced risk of revision after 5 years was associated with older age (HR: 0.95; 95% CI 0.95 to 0.96), obesity (0.70; 0.56 to 0.88), living in deprived areas (0.71; 0.58 to 0.87), non-white ethnicity (0.58; 0.43 to 0.78), better preoperative pain and functional limitation (0.42; 0.33 to 0.53), better 6-month postoperative pain and function (0.33; 0.26 to 0.41) or moderate anxiety/depression (0.73; 0.63 to 0.83) at primary surgery.Increased risk was associated with male gender (1.32; 1.04 to 1.67); when anticonvulsants (gabapentin and pregabalin) (1.58; 1.01 to 2.47) or opioids (1.36; 1.08 to 1.71) were required prior to primary surgery.No implant factors were identified.Conclusion The risk of mid–late term KR revision is very low. Increased risk of revision is associated with patient case-mix factors, and there is evidence of sociodemographic inequality.

Objective To identify patients at risk of mid-late term revision of hip replacement to inform targeted follow-up.Design Analysis of linked national data sets from primary and secondary care (Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD-GOLD); National Joint Registry (NJR); English Hospital Episode Statistics (HES); Patient-Reported Outcome Measures (PROMs)).Participants Primary elective total hip replacement (THR) aged≥18.Event of interest Revision surgery≥5 years (mid-late term) after primary THR.Statistical methods Cox regression modelling to ascertain risk factors of mid-late term revision. HR and 95% CI assessed association of sociodemographic factors, comorbidities, medication, surgical variables and PROMs with mid-late term revision.Results NJR-HES-PROMs data were available from 2008 to 2011 on 142 275 THR; mean age 70.0 years and 61.9% female. CPRD GOLD-HES data covered 1995–2011 on 17 047 THR; mean age 68.4 years, 61.8% female. Patients had minimum 5 years postprimary surgery to end 2016. In NJR-HES-PROMS data, there were 3582 (2.5%) revisions, median time-to-revision after primary surgery 1.9 years (range 0.01–8.7), with 598 (0.4%) mid-late term revisions; in CPRD GOLD, 982 (5.8%) revisions, median time-to-revision 5.3 years (range 0–20), with 520 (3.1%) mid-late term revisions.Reduced risk of mid-late term revision was associated with older age at primary surgery (HR: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.95 to 0.96); better 6-month postoperative pain/function scores (HR: 0.35; 95% CI: 0.27 to 0.46); use of ceramic-on-ceramic (HR: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.56 to 0.95) or ceramic-on-polyethylene (HR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.58 to 1.00) bearing surfaces.Increased risk of mid-late term revision was associated with the use of antidepressants (HR: 1.32; 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.59), glucocorticoid injections (HR: 1.33; 95% CI: 1.06 to 1.67) and femoral head size≥44 mm (HR: 2.56; 95% CI: 1.09 to 6.02)No association of gender, obesity or Index of Multiple Deprivation was observed.Conclusion The risk of mid-late term THR is associated with age at primary surgery, 6-month postoperative pain and function and implant factors. Further work is needed to explore the associations with prescription medications observed in our data.

ObjectiveTo assess the impact of local commissioners' policies for body mass index on access to knee replacement surgery in England.MethodsA Natural Experimental Study using interrupted time series and difference-in-differences analysis. We used National Joint Registry for England data linked to the 2015 Index of Multiple Deprivation for 481,555 patients who had primary knee replacement surgery in England between January 2009 and December 2019. Clinical Commissioning Group policies introduced before June 2018 to alter access to knee replacement for patients who were overweight or obese were considered the intervention. The main outcome measures were rate per 100,000 of primary knee replacement surgery and patient demographics (body mass index, Index of Multiple Deprivation, independently-funded surgery) over time.ResultsRates of surgery had a sustained fall after the introduction of a policy (trend change of -0.98 operations per 100,000 population aged 40+, 95% confidence interval -1.22 to -0.74, PConclusionsBody mass index policy introduction was associated with decreases in the rates of knee replacement surgery across localities that introduced policies. This affected all patient groups, not just obese patients at whom the policies were targeted. Changes in patient demographics seen after policy introduction suggest these policies may increase health inequalities and further qualitative research is needed to understand their implementation and impact.

Background and purpose — Total knee replacement (TKR) can be implanted with or without bone cement. It is currently unknown how the functional outcomes compare. Therefore, we compared the patient-reported outcome measures (PROMS) of both fixation methods. Patients and methods — We performed a propensitymatched comparison of 14,404 TKRs (7,202 cemented and 7,202 cementless) enrolled in the National Joint Registry and the English National PROMs collection programme. Subgroup analyses were performed in different age groups (1) < 55 years; (2) 55–64 years; (3) 65–74 years; (4) ≥ 75 years. Results — The 6-month postoperative Oxford Knee Score (OKS) was significantly (p < 0.001) higher for cemented TKR (35, SD 9.7) than cementless TKR (34, SD 9.9). The OKS was also significantly higher for the cemented TKR in all age groups, except the 55–64-year group. A significantly higher proportion of cemented TKRs had an excellent OKS (≥ 41) compared with cementless (32% vs. 28%, p < 0.001) and a lower proportion of poor (< 27) scores (19% vs. 22%, p = 0.001). This was also observed for all age subgroups. There were no significant differences in EQ-5D points gained postoperatively between the groups respectively (0.31 vs. 0.30, p = 0.1). Interpretation — Cemented TKRs had a greater proportion of excellent OKS scores and lower proportion of poor scores both overall and across all age groups. However, the absolute differences are small and below the minimally clinically important difference, making both fixation types acceptable. Currently the vast majority of TKRs are cemented and the results from this study suggest that this is appropriate.

Background: Although routine NHS data potentially include all patients, confounding limits their use for causal inference. Methods to minimise confounding in observational studies of implantable devices are required to enable the evaluation of patients with severe systemic morbidity who are excluded from many randomised controlled trials. Objectives: Stage 1 – replicate the Total or Partial Knee Arthroplasty Trial (TOPKAT), a surgical randomised controlled trial comparing unicompartmental knee replacement with total knee replacement using propensity score and instrumental variable methods. Stage 2 – compare the risk benefits and cost-effectiveness of unicompartmental knee replacement with total knee replacement surgery in patients with severe systemic morbidity who would have been ineligible for TOPKAT using the validated methods from stage 1. Design: This was a cohort study. Setting: Data were obtained from the National Joint Registry database and linked to hospital inpatient (Hospital Episode Statistics) and patient-reported outcome data. Participants: Stage 1 – people undergoing unicompartmental knee replacement surgery or total knee replacement surgery who met the TOPKAT eligibility criteria. Stage 2 – participants with an American Society of Anesthesiologists grade of ≥ 3. Intervention: The patients were exposed to either unicompartmental knee replacement surgery or total knee replacement surgery. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome measure was the postoperative Oxford Knee Score. The secondary outcome measures were 90-day postoperative complications (venous thromboembolism, myocardial infarction and prosthetic joint infection) and 5-year revision risk and mortality. The main outcome measures for the health economic analysis were health-related quality of life (EuroQol-5 Dimensions) and NHS hospital costs. Results: In stage 1, propensity score stratification and inverse probability weighting replicated the results of TOPKAT. Propensity score adjustment, propensity score matching and instrumental variables did not. Stage 2 included 2256 unicompartmental knee replacement patients and 57,682 total knee replacement patients who had severe comorbidities, of whom 145 and 23,344 had linked Oxford Knee Scores, respectively. A statistically significant but clinically irrelevant difference favouring unicompartmental knee replacement was observed, with a mean postoperative Oxford Knee Score difference of

BackgroundOne in 10 people in the United Kingdom will need a total knee replacement (TKR) during their lifetime. Access to this life-changing operation has recently been restricted based on body mass index (BMI) due to belief that high BMI may lead to poorer outcomes. We investigated the associations between BMI and revision surgery, mortality, and pain/function using what we believe to be the world's largest joint replacement registry.Methods and findingsWe analysed 493,710 TKRs in the National Joint Registry (NJR) for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, and the Isle of Man from 2005 to 2016 to investigate 90-day mortality and 10-year cumulative revision. Hospital Episodes Statistics (HES) and Patient Reported Outcome Measures (PROMs) databases were linked to the NJR to investigate change in Oxford Knee Score (OKS) 6 months postoperatively. After adjustment for age, sex, American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade, indication for operation, year of primary TKR, and fixation type, patients with high BMI were more likely to undergo revision surgery within 10 years compared to those with "normal" BMI (obese class II hazard ratio (HR) 1.21, 95% CI: 1.10, 1.32 (p < 0.001) and obese class III HR 1.13, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.26 (p = 0.026)). All BMI classes had revision estimates within the recognised 10-year benchmark of 5%. Overweight and obese class I patients had lower mortality than patients with "normal" BMI (HR 0.76, 95% CI: 0.65, 0.90 (p = 0.001) and HR 0.69, 95% CI: 0.58, 0.82 (p < 0.001)). All BMI categories saw absolute increases in OKS after 6 months (range 18-20 points). The relative improvement in OKS was lower in overweight and obese patients than those with "normal" BMI, but the difference was below the minimal detectable change (MDC; 4 points). The main limitations were missing BMI particularly in the early years of data collection and a potential selection bias effect of surgeons selecting the fitter patients with raised BMI for surgery.ConclusionsGiven revision estimates in all BMI groups below the recognised threshold, no evidence of increased mortality, and difference in change in OKS below the MDC, this large national registry shows no evidence of poorer outcomes in patients with high BMI. This study does not support rationing of TKR based on increased BMI.

Background and purpose — Smoking is a modifiable risk factor that may adversely affect postoperative outcomes. Healthcare providers are increasingly denying smokers access to total hip and knee arthroplasty (THA and TKA) until they stop smoking. Evidence supporting this is unclear. We assessed the effect of smoking on outcomes following arthroplasty. Patients and methods — We identified THAs and TKAs from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, which were linked with datasets from Hospital Episode Statistics and the Office for National Statistics to identify outcomes. The effect of smoking on postoperative outcomes (complications, medications, revision, mortality, patient-reported outcome measures [PROMs]) was assessed using adjusted regression models. Results — We studied 60,812 THAs and 56,212 TKAs (11% smokers, 33% ex-smokers, 57% non-smokers). Following THA, smokers had an increased risk of lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) and myocardial infarction compared with non-smokers and ex-smokers. Following TKA, smokers had an increased risk of LRTI compared with non-smokers. Compared with non-smokers (THA relative risk ratio [RRR] = 0.65; 95% CI = 0.61–0.69; TKA RRR = 0.82; CI = 0.78–0.86) and ex-smokers (THR RRR = 0.90; CI = 0.84–0.95), smokers had increased opioid usage 1-year postoperatively. Similar patterns were observed for weak opioids, paracetamol, and gabapentinoids. 1-year mortality rates were higher in smokers compared with non-smokers (THA hazard ratio [HR] = 0.37, CI = 0.29–0.49; TKA HR = 0.52, CI = 0.34–0.81) and ex-smokers (THA HR = 0.53, CI = 0.40–0.70). Long-term revision rates were not increased in smokers. Smokers had improvement in PROMs compared with preoperatively, with no clinically important difference in postoperative PROMs between smokers, non-smokers, and ex-smokers. Interpretation — Smoking is associated with more medical complications, higher analgesia usage, and increased mortality following arthroplasty. Most adverse outcomes were reduced in ex-smokers, therefore smoking cessation should be encouraged before arthroplasty.

Background and purpose — Long-term rates of knee arthroplasty in patients with anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury who undergo ligament reconstruction (ACLr) are unclear. We determined this risk of arthroplasty through comparison with the general population. Patients and methods — All patients undergoing an ACLr in England, 1997–2017, were identified from national hospital statistics. Patients subsequently undergoing a knee arthroplasty were identified and survival analysis was performed (survival without undergoing knee arthroplasty). A Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify factors associated with knee arthroplasty. Relative risk of knee arthroplasty (total or partial) in comparison with the general population was determined. Results — 111,212 ACLr patients were eligible for analysis (mean age 29; 77% male). Overall, 0.46% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.40–0.52) ACLr patients underwent knee arthroplasty within 5 years, 0.97% (CI 0.82–1.2) within 10 years, and 1.8% (CI 1.4–2.3) within 15 years. Knee arthroplasty risk was greater in older age groups and women. In comparison with the general population, the relative risk of undergoing arthroplasty at a younger age (at time of arthroplasty) was elevated: at 30–39 years (risk ratio [RR] 20; CI 11–35), 40–49 years (RR 7.5; CI 5.5–10), and 50–59 years (RR 2.5; CI 1.8–3.5), but not 60–69 years (RR 1.7; CI 0.93–3.2). Interpretation — Patients sustaining an ACL injury who undergo ACLr are at elevated risk of subsequent knee arthroplasty in comparison with the general population. Although the absolute rate of arthroplasty is low, the risk of arthroplasty at a younger age is particularly elevated. When the outcome of shared decision-making is ACLr, this data will help inform patients and clinicians about the long-term risk of requiring knee arthroplasty.

Background and purpose — A risk-stratification algorithm for metal-on-metal hip arthroplasty (MoMHA) patients was devised by US experts to help clinicians make management decisions. However, the proposed algorithm did not cover all potential patient or surgical abnormalities. Therefore we adapted the US risk-stratification algorithm in MoMHA patients revised for adverse reactions to metal debris (ARMD) to determine the variability in the revision threshold, and also whether high-risk patients had inferior outcomes following revision. Patients and methods — We analysed 239 MoMHA revisions for ARMD between 2001 and 2016 from 2 centres with pre-revision blood metal ions and imaging. Patients were stratified (low risk, moderate risk, high risk) using pre-revision factors (implant, radiographic, blood metal ions, cross-sectional imaging) by adapting a published algorithm. The risk categories for each factor were assessed against revision year, revision centre, and post-revision outcomes (re-revision surgery, and any poor outcome). Results — Compared with hips revised before 2012, hips revised from 2012 onwards included more high-risk implants (44% vs. 17% pre-2012), high-risk radiographic features (85% vs. 69% pre-2012), and low-risk metal ions (41% vs. 19% pre-2012). 1 centre more frequently revised patients with high-risk implants (48% vs. 14%) and low-risk blood metal ions (45% vs. 15%) compared with the other. All these comparisons were statistically significant (p < 0.05). With the limited sample size available, implant, radiographic, blood metal ion, and cross-sectional imaging risk groups did not statistically significantly affect the rates of re-revision surgery or frequency of poor outcomes post-revision. Interpretation — When applying the adapted risk-stratification algorithm the threshold for ARMD revision changed over time, presumably due to increasing evidence, patient surveillance, and investigation since 2012. Lower blood metal ion thresholds were used from 2012 for ARMD revisions; however, there was evidence that centres attached different importance to metal ions when managing patients. High-risk patients did not have inferior outcomes following ARMD revision.

Abstract Background Comorbidity measures, such as the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and Elixhauser Method (EM), are frequently used for risk-adjustment by healthcare researchers. This study sought to create CCI and EM lists of Read codes, which are standard terminology used in some large primary care databases. It also aimed to describe and compare the predictive properties of the CCI and EM amongst patients with hip fracture (and matched controls) in a large primary care administrative dataset. Methods Two researchers independently screened 111,929 individual Read codes to populate the 17 CCI and 31 EM comorbidity categories. Patients with hip fractures were identified (together with age- and sex-matched controls) from UK primary care practices participating in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). The predictive properties of both comorbidity measures were explored in hip fracture and control populations using logistic regression models fitted with 30- and 365-day mortality as the dependent variables together with tests of equality for Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves. Results There were 5832 CCI and 7156 EM comorbidity codes. The EM improved the ability of a logistic regression model (using age and sex as covariables) to predict 30-day mortality (AUROC 0.744 versus 0.686). The EM alone also outperformed the CCI (0.696 versus 0.601). Capturing comorbidities over a prolonged period only modestly improved the predictive value of either index: EM 1-year look-back 0.645 versus 5-year 0.676 versus complete record 0.695 and CCI 0.574 versus 0.591 versus 0.605. Conclusions The comorbidity code lists may be used by future researchers to calculate CCI and EM using records from Read coded databases. The EM is preferable to the CCI but only marginal gains should be expected from incorporating comorbidities over a period longer than 1 year.

Abstract Background Displaced intracapsular hip fractures are typically treated with hemiarthroplasty (HA) or total hip arthroplasty (THA). A number of professional bodies recommend considering THA for patients that were independently mobile and cognitively intact before injury. The aim of this study was to compare the outcomes between HA and THA for independently mobile older adults with hip fractures. Methods A systematic review and meta-analysis of RCTs was undertaken alongside analysis of a propensity score matched national cohort of older adults (aged > 60) with hip fractures. Participants were identified for the propensity score matched cohort from the National Hip Fracture Database (NHFD), which was linked to Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) and civil death registration data. The primary outcomes were 12-month dislocation, revision, and mortality. The secondary outcomes were length of stay, discharge home, unplanned re-admission, functional outcomes, and health-related quality of life. Results Five RCTs reported higher THA dislocation but this was not statistically significant (THA risk ratio [RR] 2.77, 95% CI 0.81 to 9.48). However, THA dislocation was significantly higher in the national observational dataset (sub-distribution hazard ratio [SHR] 1.73, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.41). Meta-analysis of data from four RCTs did not identify a significant difference in terms of revision (RR 1.52, 95% CI 0.56 to 4.14). However, THA revision was significantly lower in the national dataset (SHR 0.66, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.90). Meta-analysis of data from 5 RCTs suggested higher mortality amongst patients undergoing HA (RR 0.63, 95% CI 0.38 to 1.04), which was also observed within the national registry dataset (hazard ratio 0.45, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.54). Conclusions National clinical registries can provide important context when interpreting RCT data, which may alone be inadequate for comparing the safety profile of surgical interventions. These data suggest that THA is at significantly higher risk of dislocation but lower risk of revision within 12 months. The finding from both RCT and clinical registry data that THA is associated with lower 12-month mortality amongst the fittest patients with hip fractures requires urgent further study to determine whether or not this can be replicated in other balanced populations.

Donkey milk is a valuable product for babies suffering from multiple-allergies and cosmetic production; therefore, new dairy donkey farms are opening around Europe. Little information is available for farmers on sustainable production of donkey milk, including animal welfare, milk production, and processing. Targeted dissemination of information on appropriate animal management would assist dairy donkey farmers in preventing welfare problems. This research project aims to develop guidelines on good practice principles for sustainable donkey milk production. Different steps were followed to develop the guidelines:identification of key issues for dairy donkey welfare, analysing the results of previous project and the available scientific literature; systematic review research to select promising solutions for each issue included in the guidelines; stakeholder consultation, in order to increase scientific soundness and to enhance their acceptability throughout the sector; guidelines drafting and revisions by stakeholders;5. guidelines launch.The guidelines ‘Dairy donkeys: good practice principles for sustainable donkey milk production’ were launched in December 2017. They include suggestions derived from scientific literature and/or reported by internationally recognised experts. The guidelines provide clear and helpful advice on good animal management practices for anyone interested in donkey milk production. They comprise the following chapters: ‘Responsibilities’, ‘Feed and water’, ‘Housing and Management’, ‘Donkey health care’, ‘Humane killing’, ‘Appropriate behaviour’, and ‘Milking procedures’. The guidelines, translated in different languages (Italian, Spanish, Portuguese, French, Greek and Chinese Mandarin) are freely available online. Highlights The guidelines “Dairy donkeys: good practice principles for sustainable donkey milk production” are freely available online in six languages The guidelines provide clear and helpful advice on good animal management practices for anyone interested in donkey milk production The guidelines include suggestions derived from scientific literature and/or reported by internationally recognised experts

Introduction Substantial variation in the delivery of hip fracture care, and patient outcomes persists between hospitals, despite established UK national standards and guidelines. Patients’ outcomes are partly explained by patient-level risk factors, but it is hypothesised that organisational-level factors account for the persistence of unwarranted variation in outcomes. The mixed-methods REducing unwarranted variation in the Delivery of high qUality hip fraCture services in England and Wales (REDUCE) study, aims to determine key organisational factors to target to improve patient care.Methods and analysis Quantitative analysis will assess the outcomes of patients treated at 172 hospitals in England and Wales (2016–2019) using National Hip Fracture Database data combined with English Hospital Episodes Statistics; Patient Episode Database for Wales; Civil Registration (deaths) and multiple organisational-level audits to characterise each service provider. Statistical analyses will identify which organisational factors explain variation in patient outcomes, and typify care pathways with high-quality consistent patient outcomes. Documentary analysis of 20 anonymised British Orthopaedic Association hospital-initiated peer-review reports, and qualitative interviews with staff from four diverse UK hospitals providing hip fracture care, will identify barriers and facilitators to care delivery. The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a major challenge to the resilience of services and interviews will explore strategies used to adapt and innovate. This system-wide understanding will inform the development, in partnership with key national stakeholders, of an ‘Implementation Toolkit’ to inform and improve commissioning and delivery of hip fracture services.Ethics and dissemination This study was approved: quantitative study by London, City and East Research Ethics Committee (20/LO/0101); and qualitative study by Faculty of Health Sciences University of Bristol Research Ethics Committee (Ref: 108284), National Health Service (NHS) Health Research Authority (20/HRA/71) and each NHS Trust provided Research and Development approval. Findings will be disseminated through scientific conferences, peer-reviewed journals and online workshops.

Background: Bisphosphonates are contraindicated in patients with stage 4+ chronic kidney disease. However, they are widely used to prevent fragility fractures in stage 3 chronic kidney disease, despite a lack of good-quality data on their effects. Objectives: The aims of each work package were as follows. Work package 1: to study the relationship between bisphosphonate use and chronic kidney disease progression. Work package 2: to study the association between using bisphosphonates and fracture risk. Work package 3: to determine the risks of hypocalcaemia, hypophosphataemia, acute kidney injury and upper gastrointestinal events associated with using bisphosphonates. Work package 4: to investigate the association between using bisphosphonates and changes in bone mineral density over time. Design: This was a new-user cohort study design with propensity score matching. Setting and data sources: Data were obtained from UK NHS primary care (Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD database) and linked hospital inpatient records (Hospital Episode Statistics) for work packages 1–3 and from the Danish Odense University Hospital Databases for work package 4. Participants: Patients registered in the data sources who had at least one measurement of estimated glomerular filtration rate of

Objective: To identify post-operative risk factors for the development of chronic pain after knee replacement. Design: Primary knee replacements in persons aged ≥18 years between April 2008 and December 2016 from the National Joint Registry, linked with English Hospital Episode Statistics data, and Patient Reported Outcome Measures. The outcome was chronic pain 6-months after surgery (Oxford Knee pain score). Logistic regression modelling identified risk factors for chronic pain outcome. Results: 258,386 patients; 56.7% women; average age 70.1 years (SD ​± ​8.8 years). 43,702 (16.9%) were identified as having chronic pain 6-months post-surgery. Within 3 months of surgery complications were uncommon: intra-operative complications 1224 (0.5%); ≥1 medical complication 6073 (2.4%)); 32,930 (12.7%) hospital readmissions; 3848 (1.5%) re-operation; 835 (0.3%) revision. Post-surgical risk factors of chronic pain were: mechanical complication of prosthesis odds ratio (OR) 1.56 (95% Confidence Interval 1.35, 1.80); surgical site infection OR 1.13 (0.99, 1.29); readmission OR 1.47 (1.42, 1.52); re-operation OR 1.39 (1.27, 1.51); revision OR 1.92 (1.64, 2.25); length of stay e.g. 6+ vs.

BackgroundThe risk of mortality following elective total hip (THR) and knee replacements (KR) may be influenced by patients' pre-existing comorbidities. There are a variety of scores derived from individual comorbidities that can be used in an attempt to quantify this. The aims of this study were to a) identify which comorbidity score best predicts risk of mortality within 90 days or b) determine which comorbidity score best predicts risk of mortality at other relevant timepoints (30, 45, 120 and 365 days).Patients and methodsWe linked data from the National Joint Registry (NJR) on primary elective hip and knee replacements performed between 2011-2015 with pre-existing conditions recorded in the Hospital Episodes Statistics. We derived comorbidity scores (Charlson Comorbidity Index-CCI, Elixhauser, Hospital Frailty Risk Score-HFRS). We used binary logistic regression models of all-cause mortality within 90-days and within 30, 45, 120 and 365-days of the primary operation using, adjusted for age and gender. We compared the performance of these models in predicting all-cause mortality using the area under the Receiver-operator characteristics curve (AUROC) and the Index of Prediction Accuracy (IPA).ResultsWe included 276,594 elective primary THRs and 338,287 elective primary KRs for any indication. Mortality within 90-days was 0.34% (N = 939) after THR and 0.26% (N = 865) after KR. The AUROC for the CCI and Elixhauser scores in models of mortality ranged from 0.78-0.81 after THR and KR, which slightly outperformed models with ASA grade (AUROC = 0.77-0.78). HFRS performed similarly to ASA grade (AUROC = 0.76-0.78). The inclusion of comorbidities prior to the primary operation offers no improvement beyond models with comorbidities at the time of the primary. The discriminative ability of all prediction models was best for mortality within 30 days and worst for mortality within 365 days.ConclusionsComorbidity scores add little improvement beyond simpler models with age, gender and ASA grade for predicting mortality within one year after elective hip or knee replacement. The additional patient-specific information required to construct comorbidity scores must be balanced against their prediction gain when considering their utility.

Objective Identify risk factors for poor pain outcomes six months after primary knee replacement surgery. Methods Observational cohort study on patients receiving primary knee replacement from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, Hospital Episode Statistics and Patient Reported Outcomes. A wide range of variables routinely collected in primary and secondary care were identified as potential predictors of worsening or only minor improvement in pain, based on the Oxford Knee Score pain subscale. Results are presented as relative risk ratios and adjusted risk differences (ARD) by fitting a generalized linear model with a binomial error structure and log link function. Results Information was available for 4,750 patients from 2009 to 2016, with a mean age of 69, of whom 56.1% were female. 10.4% of patients had poor pain outcomes. The strongest effects were seen for pre-operative factors: mild knee pain symptoms at the time of surgery (ARD 18.2% (95% Confidence Interval 13.6, 22.8), smoking 12.0% (95% CI:7.3, 16.6), living in the most deprived areas 5.6% (95% CI:2.3, 9.0) and obesity class II 6.3% (95% CI:3.0, 9.7). Important risk factors with more moderate effects included a history of previous knee arthroscopy surgery 4.6% (95% CI:2.5, 6.6), and use of opioids 3.4% (95% CI:1.4, 5.3) within three months after surgery. Those patients with worsening pain state change had more complications by 3 months (11.8% among those in a worse pain state vs. 2.7% with the same pain state). Conclusions We quantified the relative importance of individual risk factors including mild pre-operative pain, smoking, deprivation, obesity and opioid use in terms of the absolute proportions of patients achieving poor pain outcomes. These findings will support development of interventions to reduce the numbers of patients who have poor pain outcomes.

Objectives This study has three objectives. (1) Investigate the association between body mass index (BMI) and the efficacy of primary hip replacement using a patient-reported outcome measure (PROMs) with a measurement floor and ceiling, (2) Explore the performance of different estimation methods to estimate change in PROMs score following surgery using a simulation study and real word data where data has measurement floors and ceilings and (3) Lastly, develop guidance for practising researchers on the analysis of PROMs in the presence of floor and ceiling effects.Design Simulation study and prospective national medical device register.Setting National Register of Joint Replacement and Medical Devices.Methods Using a Monte Carlo simulation study and data from a national joint replacement register (162 513 patients with pre- and post-surgery PROMs), we investigate simple approaches for the analysis of outcomes with floor and ceiling effects that are measured at two occasions: linear and Tobit regression (baseline adjusted analysis of covariance, change-score analysis, post-score analysis) in addition to linear and multilevel Tobit models.Primary outcome The primary outcome of interest is change in PROMs from pre-surgery to 6 months post-surgery.Results Analysis of data with floor and ceiling effects with models that fail to account for these features induce substantial bias. Single-level Tobit models only correct for floor or ceiling effects when the exposure of interest is not associated with the baseline score. In observational data scenarios, only multilevel Tobit models are capable of providing unbiased inferences.Conclusions Inferences from pre- post-studies that fail to account for floor and ceiling effects may induce spurious associations with substantial risk of bias. Multilevel Tobit models indicate the efficacy of total hip replacement is independent of BMI. Restricting access to total hip replacement based on a patients BMI can not be supported by the data.

Objectives To estimate the relationship between patient characteristics and referral decisions made by musculoskeletal hubs, and to assess the possible impact of an evidence-based referral tool.Design Retrospective analysis of medical records and decision tree model evaluating policy changes using local and national data.Setting One musculoskeletal interface clinic (hub) in England.Participants 922 adults aged ≥50 years referred by general practitioners with symptoms of knee or hip osteoarthritis.Interventions We assessed the current frequency and determinants of referrals from one hub and the change in referrals that would occur at this centre and nationally if evidence-based thresholds for referral (Oxford Knee and Hip Scores, OKS/OHS) were introduced.Main outcome measure OKS/OHS, referrals for surgical assessment, referrals for arthroplasty, costs and quality-adjusted life years.Results Of 110 patients with knee symptoms attending face-to-face hub consultations, 49 (45%) were referred for surgical assessment; the mean OKS for these 49 patients was 18 (range: 1–41). Of 101 hip patients, 36 (36%) were referred for surgical assessment (mean OHS: 21, range: 5–44). No patients referred for surgical assessment were above previously reported economic thresholds for OKS (43) or OHS (45). Setting thresholds of OKS ≤31 and OHS ≤35 might have resulted in an additional 22 knee referrals and 26 hip referrals in our cohort. Extrapolating hub results across England suggests a possible increase in referrals nationally, of around 13 000 additional knee replacements and 4500 additional hip replacements each year.Conclusions Musculoskeletal hubs currently consider OKS/OHS and other factors when making decisions about referral to secondary care for joint replacement. Those referred typically have low OHS/OKS, and introducing evidence-based OKS/OHS thresholds would prevent few inappropriate (high-functioning, low-pain) referrals. However, our findings suggest that some patients not currently referred could benefit from arthroplasty based on OKS/OHS. More research is required to explore other important patient characteristics currently influencing hub decisions.