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Aim The COVID-19 pandemic has threatened individual and population wellbeing and strategies to jointly address these challenges within budget constraints are required. The aim of our research is to analyse evidence from the Active Lives South Australia study to consider the potential of physical activity (PA) health promotion strategies to be health-system cost saving while addressing wellbeing challenges. Methods The Active Lives South Australia study compares adult populations who meet and do not meet physical activity (PA) guidelines (150+ minutes of weekly physical activity) with respect to their subjective wellbeing and health care utilisation. Subject and results Adults who met PA guidelines had better wellbeing across all aspects with and without adjustment for age, sex and income covariates. Analysis showed significant associations between meeting guidelines and lower probabilities of visiting and utilisation of GPs, specialist doctors, other health professionals, hospital inpatient admissions, outpatient clinic and emergency department visits, and an overall A$1760 lower cost per person annually. Controlling for age, sex and income, health expenditure for adults who met PA guidelines was significantly lower by A$1393 per person annually. That translated to A$804 million potential annual SA health system cost saving by shifting all adults to meeting PA guidelines. Conclusion There is significant potential for effective health promotion strategies to be net cost saving while addressing wellbeing challenges of COVID-19 recovery where they can shift target populations from not meeting to meeting PA guidelines.

Aim International comparisons of public health measures relative to observed best practice are increasingly important for evaluating community health promotion strategies and policies such as meeting or not meeting public health guidelines. This study aimed to identify methods enabling robust evaluation with such binary effect measures at a population level. Subject and methods Conventional efficiency comparisons of binary effect proportions are problematic due to a lack of consistency with alternate framing of resulting relative risks. In this paper, we illustrate such inconsistent efficiency measures comparing the proportion of school age children (9–11 years) meeting or not meeting integrated movement guidelines (IMGs) across the 12 countries from the International Study of Childhood Obesity, Lifestyle and the Environment (ISCOLE) study. IMGs jointly consider physical activity, sleep and sedentary behaviours. An odds method is developed to enable consistent efficiency comparison with alternative framing of binary effects. Results A novel odds solution to relative risk problems arising with conventional efficiency comparison of binary effects with alternative framing is shown to provide consistent efficiency measures relative to best practice. Furthermore, this technical advancement is shown to extend to consistent indirect comparison and evidence translation. Conclusion Robust methods for international cross-country comparison of binary effect measures such as meeting or not meeting guidelines are identified with a novel odds ratio method. This novel solution is particularly important for health promotion evaluation of IMGs given the need for consistent comparison in evaluating practice evidence of what works now and consistent evidence translation of treatment effects as and when they emerge.

Background/aims: The use of pilot studies to help inform the design of randomized controlled trials has increased significantly over the last couple of decades. A pilot study can provide estimates of feasibility parameters, such as the recruitment, compliance and follow-up probabilities. The use of frequentist confidence intervals of these estimates fails to provide a meaningful measure of the uncertainty as it pertains to the design of the associated randomized controlled trial. The objective of this article is to introduce Bayesian methods for the analysis of pilot studies for determining the feasibility of an associated randomized controlled trial. Methods: An example from the literature is used to illustrate the advantages of a Bayesian approach for accounting for the uncertainty in pilot study results when assessing the feasibility of an associated randomized controlled trial. Vague beta distribution priors for the feasibility parameters are used. Based on the results from a feasibility study, simulation methods are used to determine the expected power of specified recruitment strategies for an associated randomized controlled trial. Results: The vague priors used for the feasibility parameters are demonstrated to be considerably robust. Beta distribution posteriors for the feasibility parameters lead to beta-binomial predictive distributions for an associated randomized controlled trial regarding the number of patients randomized, the number of patients who are compliant and the number of patients who complete follow-up. Ignoring the uncertainty in pilot study results can lead to inadequate power for an associated randomized controlled trial. Conclusion: Applying Bayesian methods to pilot studies’ results provides direct inference about the feasibility parameters and quantifies the uncertainty regarding the feasibility of an associated randomized controlled trial in an intuitive and meaningful way. Furthermore, Bayesian methods can identify recruitment strategies that yield the desired power for an associated randomized controlled trial.

ImportanceChildren with medical complexity (CMC) have chronic conditions and high health needs and may experience fragmented care.ObjectiveTo compare the effectiveness of a structured complex care program, Complex Care for Kids Ontario (CCKO), with usual care.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis randomized clinical trial used a waitlist variation for randomizing patients from 12 complex care clinics in Ontario, Canada, over 2 years. The study was conducted from December 2016 to June 2021. Participants were identified based on complex care clinic referral and randomly allocated into an intervention group, seen at the next available clinic appointment, or a control group that was placed on a waitlist to receive the intervention after 12 months.InterventionAssignment of a nurse practitioner–pediatrician dyad partnering with families in a structured complex care clinic to provide intensive care coordination and comprehensive plans of care.Main Outcomes and MeasuresCo-primary outcomes, assessed at baseline and at 6, 12, and 24 months postrandomization, were service delivery indicators from the Family Experiences With Coordination of Care that scored (1) coordination of care among health care professionals, (2) coordination of care between health care professionals and families, and (3) utility of care planning tools. Secondary outcomes included child and parent health outcomes and child health care system utilization and cost.ResultsOf 144 participants randomized, 141 had complete health administrative data, and 139 had complete baseline surveys. The median (IQR) age of the participants was 29 months (9-102); 83 (60%) were male. At 12 months, scores for utility of care planning tools improved in the intervention group compared with the waitlist group (adjusted odds ratio, 9.3; 95% CI, 3.9-21.9; P P = .01).Conclusions and RelevanceThe CCKO program improved the perceived utility of care planning tools but not other outcomes at 1 year. Extended evaluation periods may be helpful in assessing pediatric complex care interventions.Trial RegistrationClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02928757

IntroductionHaving an infant admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) is associated with increased parental stress, anxiety and depression. Enhanced support for parents may decrease parental stress and improve subsequent parent and child outcomes. The Coached, Coordinated, Enhanced Neonatal Transition (CCENT) programme is a novel bundled intervention of psychosocial support delivered by a nurse navigator that includes Acceptance and Commitment Therapy-based coaching, care coordination and anticipatory education for parents of high-risk infants in the NICU through the first year at home. The primary objective is to evaluate the impact of the intervention on parent stress at 12 months.Methods and analysisThis is a multicentre pragmatic randomised controlled superiority trial with 1:1 allocation to the CCENT model versus control (standard neonatal follow-up). Parents of high-risk infants (n=236) will be recruited from seven NICUs across three Canadian provinces. Intervention participants are assigned a nurse navigator who will provide the intervention for 12 months. Outcomes are measured at baseline, 6 weeks, 4, 12 and 18 months. The primary outcome measure is the total score of the Parenting Stress Index Fourth Edition Short Form at 12 months. Secondary outcomes include parental mental health, empowerment and health-related quality of life for calculation of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). A cost-effectiveness analysis will examine the incremental cost of CCENT versus usual care per QALY gained. Qualitative interviews will explore parent and healthcare provider experiences with the intervention.Ethics and disseminationResearch ethics approval was obtained from Clinical Trials Ontario, Children’s Hospital of Eastern Ontario Research Ethics Board (REB), The Hospital for Sick Children REB, UBC Children’s and Women’s REB and McGill University Health Centre REB. Results will be shared with Canadian level III NICUs, neonatal follow-up programmes and academic forums.Trial registration numberClinicalTrials.gov Registry (NCT03350243).

Importance While intravenous magnesium decreases hospitalizations in refractory pediatric acute asthma, it is variably used because of invasiveness and safety concerns. The benefit of nebulized magnesium to prevent hospitalization is unknown. Objective To evaluate the effectiveness of nebulized magnesium in children with acute asthma remaining in moderate or severe respiratory distress after initial therapy. Design, Setting, and Participants A randomized double-blind parallel-group clinical trial from September 26, 2011, to November 19, 2019, in 7 tertiary-care pediatric emergency departments in Canada. The participants were otherwise healthy children aged 2 to 17 years with moderate to severe asthma defined by a Pediatric Respiratory Assessment Measure (PRAM) score of 5 or greater (on a 12-point scale) after a 1-hour treatment with an oral corticosteroid and 3 inhaled albuterol and ipratropium treatments. Of 5846 screened patients, 4332 were excluded for criteria, 273 declined participation, 423 otherwise excluded, 818 randomized, and 816 analyzed. Interventions Participants were randomized to 3 nebulized albuterol treatments with either magnesium sulfate (n = 410) or 5.5% saline placebo (n = 408). Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was hospitalization for asthma within 24 hours. Secondary outcomes included PRAM score; respiratory rate; oxygen saturation at 60, 120, 180, and 240 minutes; blood pressure at 20, 40, 60, 120, 180, and 240 minutes; and albuterol treatments within 240 minutes. Results Among 818 randomized patients (median age, 5 years; 63% males), 816 completed the trial (409 received magnesium; 407, placebo). A total of 178 of the 409 children who received magnesium (43.5%) were hospitalized vs 194 of the 407 who received placebo (47.7%) (difference, −4.2%; absolute risk difference 95% [exact] CI, −11% to 2.8%];P = .26). There were no significant between-group differences in changes from baseline to 240 minutes in PRAM score (difference of changes, 0.14 points [95% CI, −0.23 to 0.50];P = .46); respiratory rate (0.17 breaths/min [95% CI, −1.32 to 1.67];P = .82); oxygen saturation (−0.04% [95% CI, −0.53% to 0.46%];P = .88); systolic blood pressure (0.78 mm Hg [95% CI, −1.48 to 3.03];P = .50); or mean number of additional albuterol treatments (magnesium: 1.49, placebo: 1.59; risk ratio, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.79 to 1.11];P = .47). Nausea/vomiting or sore throat/nose occurred in 17 of the 409 children who received magnesium (4%) and 5 of the 407 who received placebo (1%). Conclusions and Relevance Among children with refractory acute asthma in the emergency department, nebulized magnesium with albuterol, compared with placebo with albuterol, did not significantly decrease the hospitalization rate for asthma within 24 hours. The findings do not support use of nebulized magnesium with albuterol among children with refractory acute asthma. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier:NCT01429415

Background In the Twin Birth Study, women at 320/7–386/7 weeks of gestation, in whom the first twin was in cephalic presentation, were randomized to planned vaginal delivery or cesarean section. The study found no significant differences in neonatal or maternal outcomes in the two planned mode of delivery groups. We aimed to compare neonatal and maternal outcomes of twin gestations without spontaneous onset of labor, who underwent induction of labor or pre-labor cesarean section as the intervention of induction may affect outcomes. Methods In this secondary analysis of the Twin Birth Study we compared those who had an induction of labor with those who had a pre-labor cesarean section. The primary outcome was a composite of fetal or neonatal death or serious neonatal morbidity. Secondary outcome was a composite of maternal morbidity and mortality. Trial Registration: NCT00187369. Results Of the 2804 women included in the Twin Birth Study, a total of 1347 (48%) women required a delivery before a spontaneous onset of labor occurred: 568 (42%) in the planned vaginal delivery arm and 779 (58%) in the planned cesarean arm. Induction of labor was attempted in 409 (30%), and 938 (70%) had a pre-labor cesarean section. The rate of intrapartum cesarean section in the induction of labor group was 41.3%. The rate of the primary outcome was comparable between the pre-labor cesarean section group and induction of labor group (1.65% vs. 1.97%; p = 0.61; OR 0.83; 95% CI 0.43–1.62). The maternal composite outcome was found to be lower with pre-labor cesarean section compared to induction of labor (7.25% vs. 11.25%; p = 0.01; OR 0.61; 95% CI 0.41–0.91). Conclusion In women with twin gestation between 320/7–386/7 weeks of gestation, induction of labor and pre-labor cesarean section have similar neonatal outcomes. Pre-labor cesarean section is associated with favorable maternal outcomes which differs from the overall Twin Birth Study results. These data may be used to better counsel women with twin gestation who are faced with the decision of interventional delivery.

IntroductionMusculoskeletal (MSK) injuries are a frequent cause for emergency department (ED) visits in children. MSK injuries are associated with moderate-to-severe pain in most children, yet recent research confirms that the management of children’s pain in the ED remains inadequate. Clinicians are seeking better oral analgesic options for MSK injury pain with demonstrated efficacy and an excellent safety profile. This study aims to determine the efficacy and safety of adding oral acetaminophen or oral hydromorphone to oral ibuprofen and interpret this information within the context of parent/caregiver preference.Methods and analysisUsing a novel preference-informed complementary trial design, two simultaneous trials are being conducted. Parents/caregivers of children presenting to the ED with acute limb injury will be approached and they will decide which trial they wish to participate in: an opioid-inclusive trial or a non-opioid trial. Both trials will follow randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, superiority-trial methodology and will enrol a minimum of 536 children across six Canadian paediatric EDs. Children will be eligible if they are 6 to 17 years of age and if they present to the ED with an acute limb injury and a self-reported verbal Numerical Rating Scale pain score ≥5. The primary objective is to determine the effectiveness of oral ibuprofen+oral hydromorphone versus oral ibuprofen+oral acetaminophen versus oral ibuprofen alone. Recruitment was launched in April 2019.Ethics and disseminationThis study has been approved by the Health Research Ethics Board (University of Alberta), and by appropriate ethics boards at all recruiting centres. Informed consent will be obtained from parents/guardians of all participants, in conjunction with assent from the participants themselves. Study data will be submitted for publication regardless of results. This study is funded through a Canadian Institutes of Health Research grant.Trial registration numberNCT03767933, first registered on 07 December 2018.

BackgroundEmergency Departments (EDs) are a first point-of-contact for many youth with mental health and suicidality concerns and can serve as an effective recruitment source for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of mental health interventions. However, recruitment in acute care settings is impeded by several challenges. This pilot RCT of a youth suicide prevention intervention recruited adolescents aged 12 to 17 years presenting to a pediatric hospital ED with suicide related behaviors.MethodsRecruitment barriers were identified during the initial study recruitment period and included: the time of day of ED presentations, challenges inherent to study presentation, engagement and participation during an acute presentation, challenges approaching and enrolling acutely suicidal patients and families, ED environmental factors, and youth and parental concerns regarding the study. We calculated the average recruitment productivity for published trials of adolescent suicide prevention strategies which included the ED as a recruitment site in order to compare our recruitment productivity.ResultsIn response to identified barriers, an enhanced ED-centered recruitment strategy was developed to address low recruitment rate, specifically (i) engaging a wider network of ED and outpatient psychiatry staff (ii) dissemination of study pamphlets across multiple areas of the ED and relevant outpatient clinics. Following implementation of the enhanced recruitment strategy, the pre-post recruitment productivity, a ratio of patients screened to patients randomized, was computed. A total of 120 patients were approached for participation, 89 (74.2%) were screened and 45 (37.5%) were consented for the study from March 2018 to April 2019. The screening to randomization ratio for the study period prior to the introduction of the enhanced recruitment strategies was 3:1, which decreased to 1.8:1 following the implementation of enhanced recruitment strategies. The ratio for the total recruitment period was 2.1:1. This was lower than the average ratio of 3.2:1 for published trials.ConclusionsEDs are feasible sites for participant recruitment in RCTs examining new interventions for acute mental health problems, including suicidality. Engaging multi-disciplinary ED staff to support recruitment for such studies, proactively addressing anticipated concerns, and creating a robust recruitment pathway that includes approach at outpatient appointments can optimize recruitment.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov:NCT03488602, retrospectively registered April 4, 2018.

Study objective We determine whether single-dose oral ondansetron administration to children with vomiting as a result of acute gastroenteritis without dehydration reduces administration of intravenous fluid rehydration. Methods In this 2-hospital, double-blind, placebo-controlled, emergency department–based, randomized trial conducted in Karachi Pakistan, we recruited children aged 0.5 to 5.0 years, without dehydration, who had diarrhea and greater than or equal to 1 episode of vomiting within 4 hours of arrival. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1), through an Internet-based randomization service using a stratified variable-block randomization scheme, to single-dose oral ondansetron or placebo. The primary endpoint was intravenous rehydration (administration of ≥20 mL/kg of an isotonic fluid during 4 hours) within 72 hours of randomization. Results Participant median age was 15 months (interquartile range 10 to 26) and 59.4% (372/626) were male patients. Intravenous rehydration use was 12.1% (38/314) and 11.9% (37/312) in the placebo and ondansetron groups, respectively (odds ratio 0.98; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.60 to 1.61; difference 0.2%; 95% CI of the difference –4.9% to 5.4%). Bolus fluid administration occurred within 72 hours of randomization in 10.8% (34/314) and 10.3% (27/312) of children administered placebo and ondansetron, respectively (odds ratio 0.95; 95% CI 0.56 to 1.59). A multivariable regression model fitted with treatment group and adjusted for antiemetic administration, antibiotics, zinc prerandomization, and vomiting frequency prerandomization yielded similar results (odds ratio 0.91; 95% CI 0.55 to 1.53). There was no interaction between treatment group and age, greater than or equal to 3 stools in the preceding 24 hours, or greater than or equal to 3 vomiting episodes in the preceding 24 hours. Conclusion Oral administration of a single dose of ondansetron did not result in a reduction in intravenous rehydration use. In children without dehydration, ondansetron does not improve clinical outcomes.

Study objective In patients with a distal radius buckle fracture, we determine whether home removal of a splint and physician follow-up as needed (home management) is noninferior to primary care physician follow-up in 1 to 2 weeks with respect to functional recovery. We also compare groups with respect to health care and patient-level costs. Methods This was a noninferiority randomized controlled trial conducted at a tertiary care children's hospital. Eligible patients were randomized to home management versus primary care physician follow-up and received telephone contact at 3 and 6 weeks after the index ED visit. Functional recovery was measured with the Activities Scale for Kids-performance, and participants reported wrist-injury-related health care interventions and expenses. The primary outcome was a comparison of the performance score between groups at 3 weeks. Results We enrolled 149 patients with mean age 9.5 years (SD 2.7 years), and 81 (54.4%) were male patients. Of the 133 patients (89.3%) with completed 3-week follow-up, the mean Activities Scale for Kids-performance score was 95.4% in the home management group (n=66) and 95.9% in the primary care physician follow-up group (n=67) (mean difference -0.4%; lower bound of the 95% confidence interval -2.4%). There was a mean costs savings of -$100.10 (95% confidence interval -$130.0 to -$70.20) in health care and -$28.2 (95% confidence interval -$49.6 to -$7.0) in patient costs in the home management versus primary care physician follow-up group. Conclusion In patients with distal radius buckle fractures, home management is at least as good as primary care physician follow-up with respect to functional recovery. Implementation of the home management strategy also demonstrated significant cost savings.

Objective Does planned caesarean compared with planned vaginal birth lower the risk of problematic urinary stress, faecal, or flatal incontinence? Design Women between 320/7 and 386/7 weeks of gestation with a twin pregnancy were randomised to planned caesarean or planned vaginal birth. Setting The trial took place at 106 centres in 25 countries. Population A total of 2305 of the 2804 women enrolled in the study completed questionnaires at 2 years (82.2% follow‐up): 1155 in the planned caesarean group and 1150 in the planned vaginal birth group. Methods A structured self‐administered questionnaire completed at 2 years postpartum. Main outcome measures The primary maternal outcome of the Twin Birth Study was problematic urinary stress, or fecal, or flatal incontinence at 2 years Results Women in the planned caesarean group had lower problematic urinary stress incontinence rates compared with women in the planned vaginal birth group [93/1147 (8.11%) versus 140/1143 (12.25%); odds ratio, 0.63; 95% confidence interval, 0.47–0.83; P = 0.001]. Among those with problematic urinary stress incontinence, quality of life (measured using the Incontinence Impact Questionnaire, IIQ‐7) was not different for planned caesarean versus planned vaginal birth groups [mean (SD): 18.4 (21.0) versus 19.1 (21.5); P = 0.82]. There were no differences in problematic faecal or flatal incontinence, or in other maternal outcomes. Conclusions Among women with a twin pregnancy and no prior history of urinary stress incontinence, a management strategy of planned caesarean compared with planned vaginal birth reduces the risk of problematic urinary stress incontinence at 2 years postpartum. Our findings show that the prevalence but not the severity of urinary stress incontinence was associated with mode of birth. Funding Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) (grant no. MCT‐63164). Tweetable abstract For women with twins, planned caesarean compared with planned vaginal birth is associated with decreased prevalence but not severity of urinary stress incontinence at 2 years., Tweetable abstract For women with twins, planned caesarean compared with planned vaginal birth is associated with decreased prevalence but not severity of urinary stress incontinence at 2 years.

Background The Twin Birth Study, a multicenter randomized controlled trial, found no differences in neonatal outcomes in women with twins randomized to planned cesarean or vaginal delivery. Nevertheless, women who present in spontaneous labor might expect a better outcome following a trial of vaginal delivery than undergoing cesarean delivery. In this secondary analysis, we aimed to compare neonatal outcomes of women who presented in spontaneous labor in the two arms of the Twin Birth Study. Methods Women in whom the first twin was in the cephalic presentation were randomized between 32 + 0 and 38 + 6 weeks to planned vaginal delivery or cesarean. The primary outcome was a composite of fetal or neonatal death or serious neonatal morbidity. Results Of the 2804 women included in the Twin Birth Study, 823 women in the planned vaginal delivery arm and 612 in the planned cesarean arm presented in spontaneous labor. Although the odds ratio favored planned vaginal delivery, there was no statistically significant difference in the rate of primary outcome between the vaginal delivery and cesarean arms (1.8% vs 2.7%, respectively; P = 0.16; OR 1.49; 95% CI, 0.87-2.55). Similarly, the rates of the individual components of the primary outcome and of maternal adverse outcome were similar between the two arms. Conclusion In women with twins who present in spontaneous labor between 32 + 0 and 38 + 6 weeks' gestation, where the first twin is cephalic, a policy of planned vaginal delivery or cesarean is not associated with significant differences in neonatal or maternal outcomes.

Background. Resource-constrained countries have difficulty conducting large EQ-5D valuation studies, which limits their ability to conduct cost-utility analyses using a value set specific to their own population. When estimates of similar but related parameters are available, shrinkage estimators reduce uncertainty and yield estimators with smaller mean square error (MSE). We hypothesized that health utilities based on shrinkage estimators can reduce MSE and mean absolute error (MAE) when compared to country-specific health utilities. Methods. We conducted a simulation study (1,000 iterations) based on the observed means and standard deviations (or standard errors) of the EQ-5D-3L valuation studies from 14 counties. In each iteration, the simulated data were fitted with the model based on the country-specific functional form of the scoring algorithm to create country-specific health utilities (“naïve” estimators). Shrinkage estimators were calculated based on the empirical Bayes estimation methods. The performance of shrinkage estimators was compared with those of the naïve estimators over a range of different sample sizes based on MSE, MAE, mean bias, standard errors and the width of confidence intervals. Results. The MSE of the shrinkage estimators was smaller than the MSE of the naïve estimators on average, as theoretically predicted. Importantly, the MAE of the shrinkage estimators was also smaller than the MAE of the naïve estimators on average. In addition, the reduction in MSE with the use of shrinkage estimators did not substantially increase bias. The degree of reduction in uncertainty by shrinkage estimators is most apparent in valuation studies with small sample size. Conclusion. Health utilities derived from shrinkage estimation allow valuation studies with small sample size to “borrow strength” from other valuation studies to reduce uncertainty.

Background Suicide is a leading cause of death among adolescents in North America. Youth who present to the Emergency Department (ED) with acute suicidality are at increased risk for eventual death by suicide, thereby presenting an opportunity for secondary prevention of suicide. The current study evaluates the effectiveness of a standardized individual and family-based suicidal behaviour risk reduction intervention targeting adolescents at high-risk for suicide. Methods A randomized controlled trial (RCT) will be conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of a manualized youth- and family- based suicide prevention strategy (SPS) as compared with case navigation (NAV) among adolescents aged 12 to 18 years of age who present to the ED with acute suicidal ideation (SI) or suicide risk behaviours (SRB). We will recruit 128 participants and compare psychiatric symptoms including SI/SRB, family communication, and functional impairment at baseline and follow-ups (post-intervention [6 weeks], 24 weeks). The primary outcome is change in suicidal ideation measured with the Suicide Ideation Questionnaire- Junior. SRBs are measured with the Suicide Behaviour Questionnaire. Secondary outcomes are change in depressive and anxious symptoms measured with semi-structured psychiatric interview and Screen for Child Anxiety Related Disorders; acute mental health crises measured by urgent medical (including ED) visits; family communication measured with Conflict Behaviour Questionnaire, functional impairment measured by Columbia Impairment Scale; cost effectiveness, and fidelity of implementation measured by audio recording and fidelity checklist. Discussion Results of this study will inform a larger multi-centre RCT that will include both community and academic hospitals in urban and rural settings. Study results will be shared at international psychiatry and emergency medicine meetings, in local rounds, and via publication in academic journals and clinician-oriented newsletters. If effective, the intervention may provide a brief, scalable, and transportable treatment program that may be implemented in a variety of settings, including those in which access to children’s mental health care services is challenging. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03488602, retrospectively registered April 4, 2018.

Background Most (>90%) children with congenital health defects are not active enough for optimal health. Proactively promoting physical activity during every clinic visit is recommended, but rarely implemented due to a lack of appropriate resources. Methods This cluster randomized controlled trial will implement an evidence-based, multi-faceted physical activity intervention. All eligible patients at small (London, ON), medium (Ottawa, ON) and large (Edmonton, AB) pediatric cardiac clinics will be approached, with randomization to intervention/control by clinic and week. Intervention patients will be counselled with 5 key physical activity messages, have questions about physical activity answered, and have access to a custom web site with personalized activity suggestions and support from a Registered Kinesiologist. The primary outcome is daily physical activity (number of steps, minutes of moderate-to-vigorous activity) assessed via pedometer one week per month for 6-months. Standardized questionnaires assess activity motivation and quality of life at baseline and end of study. Healthcare outcomes will be clinic visit time and contacts for physical activity concerns. Repeated measures ANCOVA will compare control/intervention pedometer outcomes, adjusting for covariates (alpha=0.05). Conclusions This trial aims to determine whether providing resources and protocols enables clinicians to counsel about physical activity as part of every pediatric cardiology appointment. Evaluations of healthcare system impact and intervention delivery in small, medium and large clinics will assess applicability for implementation in all pediatric cardiac clinics. The impact on physical activity motivation and participation will evaluate the effectiveness of this standardized approach for increasing physical activity in children with congenital heart defects.

It is unclear whether maternal vitamin D supplementation during pregnancy and lactation improves fetal and infant growth in regions where vitamin D deficiency is common.We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in Bangladesh to assess the effects of weekly prenatal vitamin D supplementation (from 17 to 24 weeks of gestation until birth) and postpartum vitamin D supplementation on the primary outcome of infants' length-for-age z scores at 1 year according to World Health Organization (WHO) child growth standards. One group received neither prenatal nor postpartum vitamin D (placebo group). Three groups received prenatal supplementation only, in doses of 4200 IU (prenatal 4200 group), 16,800 IU (prenatal 16,800 group), and 28,000 IU (prenatal 28,000 group). The fifth group received prenatal supplementation as well as 26 weeks of postpartum supplementation in the amount of 28,000 IU (prenatal and postpartum 28,000 group).Among 1164 infants assessed at 1 year of age (89.5% of 1300 pregnancies), there were no significant differences across groups in the mean (±SD) length-for-age z scores. Scores were as follows: placebo, -0.93±1.05; prenatal 4200, -1.11±1.12; prenatal 16,800, -0.97±0.97; prenatal 28,000, -1.06±1.07; and prenatal and postpartum 28,000, -0.94±1.00 (P=0.23 for a global test of differences across groups). Other anthropometric measures, birth outcomes, and morbidity did not differ significantly across groups. Vitamin D supplementation had expected effects on maternal and infant serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D and calcium concentrations, maternal urinary calcium excretion, and maternal parathyroid hormone concentrations. There were no significant differences in the frequencies of adverse events across groups, with the exception of a higher rate of possible hypercalciuria among the women receiving the highest dose.In a population with widespread prenatal vitamin D deficiency and fetal and infant growth restriction, maternal vitamin D supplementation from midpregnancy until birth or until 6 months post partum did not improve fetal or infant growth. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01924013 .).

BACKGROUND: Ondansetron is an effective antiemetic employed to prevent vomiting in children with gastroenteritis in high-income countries; data from low- and middle-income countries are sparse. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled superiority trial in 2 pediatric emergency departments in Pakistan. Dehydrated children aged 6 to 60 months with ≥1 diarrheal (ie, loose or liquid) stool and ≥1 vomiting episode within the preceding 4 hours were eligible to participate. Participants received a single weight-based dose of oral ondansetron (8–15 kg: 2 mg; >15 kg: 4 mg) or identical placebo. The primary outcome was intravenous administration of ≥20 mL/kg over 4 hours of an isotonic fluid within 72 hours of random assignment. RESULTS: All 918 (100%) randomly assigned children completed follow-up. Intravenous rehydration was administered to 14.7% (68 of 462) and 19.5% (89 of 456) of those administered ondansetron and placebo, respectively (difference: −4.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI], −9.7% to 0.0%). In multivariable logistic regression analysis adjusted for other antiemetic agents, antibiotics, zinc, and the number of vomiting episodes in the preceding 24 hours, children administered ondansetron had lower odds of the primary outcome (odds ratio: 0.70; 95% CI, 0.49 to 1.00). Fewer children in the ondansetron, relative to the placebo group vomited during the observation period (difference: −12.9%; 95% CI, −18.0% to −7.8%). The median number of vomiting episodes (P < .001) was lower in the ondansetron group. CONCLUSIONS: Among children with gastroenteritis-associated vomiting and dehydration, oral ondansetron administration reduced vomiting and intravenous rehydration use. Ondansetron use may be considered to promote oral rehydration therapy success among dehydrated children in low- and middle-income countries.

IntroductionTechnological and medical advances have led to a growing population of children with medical complexity (CMC) defined by substantial medical needs, healthcare utilisation and morbidity. These children are at a high risk of missed, fragmented and/or inappropriate care, and families bear extraordinary financial burden and stress. While small in number (Methods and analysisOur primary objective is to evaluate the CCKO intervention using a randomised waitlist control design. The waitlist approach involves rolling out an intervention over time, whereby all participants are randomised into two groups (A and B) to receive the intervention at different time points determined at random. Baseline measurements are collected at month 0, and groups A and B are compared at months 6 and 12. The primary outcome is the family-prioritized Family Experiences with Coordination of Care (FECC) survey at 12 months. The FECC will be compared between groups using an analysis of covariance with the corresponding baseline score as the covariate. Secondary outcomes include reports of child and parent health outcomes, health system utilisation and process outcomes.Ethics and disseminationResearch ethics approval has been obtained for this multicentre RCT. This trial will assess the effect of a large population-level complex care intervention to determine whether dedicated key workers and coordinated care plans have an impact on improving service delivery and quality of life for CMC and their families.Trial registration numberNCT02928757.

Objectives: Forgetting curves plot skill decay over time. After exposure to a simulation-based radiograph interpretation learning system, we determined the rate of learning decay and how this was i...

Importance There is low level of evidence and substantial practice variation regarding the use of intermittent or continuous monitoring in infants hospitalized with bronchiolitis. Objective To compare the effect of intermittent vs continuous pulse oximetry on clinical outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants This multicenter, pragmatic randomized clinical trial included infants 4 weeks to 24 months of age who were hospitalized with bronchiolitis from November 1, 2016, to May 31, 2019, with or without supplemental oxygen after stabilization at community and children’s hospitals in Ontario, Canada. Interventions Intermittent (every 4 hours, n = 114) or continuous (n = 115) pulse oximetry, using an oxygen saturation target of 90% or higher. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was length of hospital stay from randomization to discharge. Secondary outcomes included length of stay from inpatient unit admission to discharge and outcomes measured from randomization: medical interventions, safety (intensive care unit transfer and revisits), parent anxiety and workdays missed, and nursing satisfaction. Results Among 229 infants enrolled (median [IQR] age, 4.0 [2.2-8.5] months; 136 [59.4%] male; 101 [44.1%] from community hospital sites), the median length of hospital stay from randomization to discharge was 27.6 hours (interquartile range [IQR], 18.8-49.6 hours) in the intermittent group and 25.4 hours (IQR, 18.3-47.6 hours) in the continuous group (difference of medians, 2.2 hours; 95% CI, −1.9 to 6.3 hours;P = .17). No significant differences were observed between the intermittent and continuous groups in the median length of stay from inpatient unit admission to discharge: 49.1 (IQR, 37.2-87.0) hours vs 46.0 (IQR, 32.5-73.8) hours (P = .13) or in frequencies or durations of hospital interventions, such as oxygen supplementation initiation: 4 of 114 (3.5%) vs. 9 of 115 (7.8%) (P = .16) and median duration of oxygen supplementation: 20.6 (IQR, 7.6-46.1) hours vs. 21.4 (11.6-52.9) hours (P = .66). Similarly, there were no significant differences in frequencies of intensive care unit transfer: 1 of 114 (0.9%) vs 2 of 115 (2.7%) (P = .76); readmission to hospital: 3 of 114 (2.6%) in the intermittent group vs 4 of 115 (3.5%) in the continuous group (P > .99); parent anxiety: mean (SD) parent anxiety score, 2.9 (0.9) in the intermittent group vs 2.8 (0.9) in the continuous group (P = .40); or parent workdays missed: median workdays missed, 1.5 (IQR, 0.5-3.0) vs 1.5 (IQR, 0.5-2.5) (P = .36). Mean (SD) nursing satisfaction with monitoring was significantly greater in the intermittent group: 8.6 (1.7) vs 7.1 (2.8) of 10 workdays; the mean difference was 1.5 (95% CI, 0.9-2.2;P Conclusions and Relevance In this randomized clinical trial, among infants hospitalized with stabilized bronchiolitis with and without hypoxia and managed using an oxygen saturation target of 90% or higher, clinical outcomes, including length of hospital stay and safety, were similar with intermittent vs continuous pulse oximetry. Nursing satisfaction was greater with intermittent monitoring. Given that other important clinical practice considerations favor less intense monitoring, these findings support the standard use of intermittent pulse oximetry in stable infants hospitalized with bronchiolitis. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier:NCT02947204

Background. Parameter uncertainty in value sets of multiattribute utility-based instruments (MAUIs) has received little attention previously. This false precision leads to underestimation of the uncertainty of the results of cost-effectiveness analyses. The aim of this study is to examine the use of multiple imputation as a method to account for this uncertainty of MAUI scoring algorithms. Method. We fitted a Bayesian model with random effects for respondents and health states to the data from the original US EQ-5D-3L valuation study, thereby estimating the uncertainty in the EQ-5D-3L scoring algorithm. We applied these results to EQ-5D-3L data from the Commonwealth Fund (CWF) Survey for Sick Adults ( n = 3958), comparing the standard error of the estimated mean utility in the CWF population using the predictive distribution from the Bayesian mixed-effect model (i.e., incorporating parameter uncertainty in the value set) with the standard error of the estimated mean utilities based on multiple imputation and the standard error using the conventional approach of using MAUI (i.e., ignoring uncertainty in the value set). Result. The mean utility in the CWF population based on the predictive distribution of the Bayesian model was 0.827 with a standard error (SE) of 0.011. When utilities were derived using the conventional approach, the estimated mean utility was 0.827 with an SE of 0.003, which is only 25% of the SE based on the full predictive distribution of the mixed-effect model. Using multiple imputation with 20 imputed sets, the mean utility was 0.828 with an SE of 0.011, which is similar to the SE based on the full predictive distribution. Conclusion. Ignoring uncertainty of the predicted health utilities derived from MAUIs could lead to substantial underestimation of the variance of mean utilities. Multiple imputation corrects for this underestimation so that the results of cost-effectiveness analyses using MAUIs can report the correct degree of uncertainty.

IntroductionBronchiolitis is the most common reason for hospitalisation in infants in developed countries. The main focus of hospital care is on supportive care, such as monitoring for hypoxia and supplemental oxygen administration, as active therapies lack effectiveness. Pulse oximetry is used to monitor hypoxia in hospitalised infants and is used either intermittently or continuously. Observational studies have suggested that continuous pulse oximetry use leads to a longer length of hospital stay in stable infants. The use of continuous pulse oximetry may lead to unnecessary clinical intervention due to readings that are of little clinical significance, false-positive readings and less reliance on the clinical status. There is a lack of high-quality evidence to guide which pulse oximetry monitoring strategy, intermittent or continuous, is superior in infants hospitalised with bronchiolitis with respect to patient and policy-relevant outcomes.Methods and analysisThis is a multicentre, pragmatic randomised controlled trial comparing two strategies for pulse oximetry monitoring in infants hospitalised for bronchiolitis. Infants aged 1 month to 2 years presenting to Canadian tertiary and community hospitals will be randomised after stabilisation to receive either intermittent or continuous oxygen saturation monitoring on the inpatient unit until discharge. The primary outcome is length of hospital stay. Secondary outcomes include additional measures of effectiveness, acceptability, safety and cost. We will need to enrol 210 infants in order to detect a 12-hour difference in length of stay with a type 1 error rate of 5% and a power of 90%.Ethics and disseminationResearch ethics approval has been obtained for this trial. This trial will provide data to guide hospitals and clinicians on the optimal pulse oximetry monitoring strategy in infants hospitalised with bronchiolitis. We will disseminate the findings of this study through peer-reviewed publication, professional societies and meetings.Trial registration numberNCT02947204

Background Orally administered sucrose is effective and safe in reducing pain intensity during single, tissue-damaging procedures in neonates, and is commonly recommended in neonatal pain guidelines. However, there is wide variability in sucrose doses examined in research, and more than a 20-fold variation across neonatal care settings. The aim of this study was to determine the minimally effective dose of 24% sucrose for reducing pain in hospitalized neonates undergoing a single skin-breaking heel lance procedure. Methods A total of 245 neonates from 4 Canadian tertiary neonatal intensive care units (NICUs), born between 24 and 42 weeks gestational age (GA), were prospectively randomized to receive one of three doses of 24% sucrose, plus non-nutritive sucking/pacifier, 2 min before a routine heel lance: 0.1 ml (Group 1; n = 81), 0.5 ml (Group 2; n = 81), or 1.0 ml (Group 3; n = 83). The primary outcome was pain intensity measured at 30 and 60 s following the heel lance, using the Premature Infant Pain Profile-Revised (PIPP-R). The secondary outcome was the incidence of adverse events. Analysis of covariance models, adjusting for GA and study site examined between group differences in pain intensity across intervention groups. Results There was no difference in mean pain intensity PIPP-R scores between treatment groups at 30 s (P = .97) and 60 s (P = .93); however, pain was not fully eliminated during the heel lance procedure. There were 5 reported adverse events among 5/245 (2.0%) neonates, with no significant differences in the proportion of events by sucrose dose (P = .62). All events resolved spontaneously without medical intervention. Conclusions The minimally effective dose of 24% sucrose required to treat pain associated with a single heel lance in neonates was 0.1 ml. Further evaluation regarding the sustained effectiveness of this dose in reducing pain intensity in neonates for repeated painful procedures is warranted. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02134873. Date: May 5, 2014 (retrospectively registered).

Hemophilia A is a rare, sex-linked genetic disorder treated with intravenous administration of factor VIII (FVIII) to prevent bleeding; however, approaches vary across and within countries. Value-of-information (VOI) methods identify situations in which the cost-benefit evidence is sufficient to adopt one treatment strategy over another; when the evidence is insufficient, VOI methods provide the optimal sample size for additional research.The objective of the study was to use VOI methods in a cost-benefit decision context to evaluate the current evidence in support of using (1) alternate day prophylaxis (AP), (2) tailored prophylaxis (TP) or (3) on-demand treatment (OD) with FVIII to prevent arthropathy in children with severe hemophilia A.To apply VOI methods, several parameters such as incidence, time horizon for the decision, costs, and threshold values to avoid MRI-detected joint damage or arthropathy were defined. Two baseline threshold values of willingness to pay for avoiding arthropathy--$200,000 and $400,000--were selected for comparing the treatment strategies.For threshold values $200,000, OD had a higher expected net benefit than either prophylaxis strategy, and the evidence was sufficient for its adoption. For threshold values $400,000 prophylaxis strategies had higher expected net benefit; however, a new trial with 38 patients per arm was needed to compare AP and TP, yielding an expected net gain of over $17 million. In sensitivity analyses, the results were robust to assumptions regarding discount rate, trial fixed and variable costs, enrollment fraction, and the time horizon.In rare diseases, evidence is often scarce and insufficient for decision making. In considering the funding of new research and patient reimbursement in rare diseases, VOI methodology may provide more relevant determinations of the value and costs of additional research, compared to standard frequentist methods.

Background: The Low Risk Ankle Rule is a validated clinical decision rule that has the potential to safely reduce radiography in children with acute ankle injuries. We performed a phased implementation of the Low Risk Ankle Rule and evaluated its effectiveness in reducing the frequency of radiography in children with ankle injuries. Methods: Six Canadian emergency departments participated in the study from Jan. 1, 2009, to Aug. 31, 2011. At the 3 intervention sites, there were 3 consecutive 26-week phases. In phase 1, no interventions were implemented. In phase 2, we activated strategies to implement the ankle rule, including physician education, reminders and a computerized decision support system. In phase 3, we included only the decision support system. No interventions were introduced at the 3 pair-matched control sites. We examined the management of ankle injuries among children aged 3–16 years. The primary outcome was the proportion of children undergoing radiography. Results: We enrolled 2151 children with ankle injuries, 1055 at intervention and 1096 at control hospitals. During phase 1, the baseline frequency of pediatric ankle radiography at intervention and control sites was 96.5% and 90.2%, respectively. During phase 2, the frequency of ankle radiography decreased significantly at intervention sites relative to control sites (between-group difference −21.9% [95% confidence interval [CI] −28.6% to −15.2%]), without significant differences in patient or physician satisfaction. All effects were sustained in phase 3. The sensitivity of the Low Risk Ankle Rule during implementation was 100% (95% CI 85.4% to 100%), and the specificity was 53.1% (95% CI 48.1% to 58.1%). Interpretation: Implementation of the Low Risk Ankle Rule in several different emergency department settings reduced the rate of pediatric ankle radiography significantly and safely, without an accompanying change in physician or patient satisfaction. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, no. NCT00785876.

Introduction Among youth, the prevalence of mental health and addiction (MHA) disorders is roughly 20%, yet youth are challenged to access evidence-based services in a timely fashion. To address MHA system gaps, this study tests the benefits of an Integrated Collaborative Care Team (ICCT) model for youth with MHA challenges. A rapid, stepped-care approach geared to need in a youth-friendly environment is expected to result in better youth MHA outcomes. Moreover, the ICCT approach is expected to decrease service wait-times, be more youth-friendly and family-friendly, and be more cost-effective, providing substantial public health benefits. Methods and analysis In partnership with four community agencies, four adolescent psychiatry hospital departments, youth and family members with lived experience of MHA service use, and other stakeholders, we have developed an innovative model of collaborative, community-based service provision involving rapid access to needs-based MHA services. A total of 500 youth presenting for hospital-based, outpatient psychiatric service will be randomised to ICCT services or hospital-based treatment as usual, following a pragmatic randomised controlled trial design. The primary outcome variable will be the youth9s functioning, assessed at intake, 6 months and 12 months. Secondary outcomes will include clinical change, youth/family satisfaction and perception of care, empowerment, engagement and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Intent-to-treat analyses will be used on repeated-measures data, along with cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses, to determine intervention effectiveness. Ethics and dissemination Research Ethics Board approval has been received from the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, as well as institutional ethical approval from participating community sites. This study will be conducted according to Good Clinical Practice guidelines. Participants will provide informed consent prior to study participation and data confidentiality will be ensured. A data safety monitoring panel will monitor the study. Results will be disseminated through community and peer-reviewed academic channels. Trial registration number Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02836080.

Background Neonatal Follow-Up (NFU) programmes provide health services for families of infants at high risk of developmental problems following difficult or extremely premature birth: yet, up to 30% of families do not attend these programmes with their infants. Methods The study objective was to determine maternal and infant factors that predicted attendance at NFU programmes. Utilizing Andersen's Behavioural Model of Health Services Use, a prospective two-phase multi-site descriptive cohort study was conducted in three Canadian Neonatal Intensive Care Units (NICU) that refer to two affiliated NFU programmes. In Phase 1, 357 mothers completed standardized questionnaires that addressed maternal and infant factors, prior to their infants’ NICU discharge. In Phase 2, attendance at NFU was followed at three time points over a 12-month period. Factors of interest included predisposing factors (e.g. demographic characteristics and social context); enabling factors (e.g. social support, travel distance, and income); and infant illness severity (i.e. needs factors). Multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio for each independent factor. Results Mothers parenting alone, experiencing higher levels of worry about maternal alcohol or drug use, or at greater distances from NFU were less likely to attend. Mothers experiencing higher maternal stress at the time of the infant's NICU hospitalization were more likely to attend NFU. No infant factors were predictive of NFU attendance. Conclusions Mothers at risk of not attending NFU programmes with their infants require better identification, triage, referral and additional support to promote engagement with NFU programmes and improved quality of life for their high-risk infants.

Background The Pessary for the Prevention of Preterm Birth Study (PS3) is an international, multicenter, randomized clinical trial designed to examine the effectiveness of the Arabin pessary in preventing preterm birth in pregnant women with a short cervix. During the design of the study two methodological issues regarding power and sample size were raised. Since treatment in the Standard Arm will vary between centers, it is anticipated that so too will the probability of preterm birth in that arm. This will likely result in a treatment by center interaction, and the issue of how this will affect the sample size requirements was raised. The sample size requirements to examine the effect of the pessary on the baby’s clinical outcome was prohibitively high, so the second issue is how best to examine the effect on clinical outcome. The approaches taken to address these issues are presented. Results Simulation and sensitivity analysis were used to address the sample size issue. The probability of preterm birth in the Standard Arm was assumed to vary between centers following a Beta distribution with a mean of 0.3 and a coefficient of variation of 0.3. To address the second issue a Bayesian decision model is proposed that combines the information regarding the between-treatment difference in the probability of preterm birth from PS3 with the data from the Multiple Courses of Antenatal Corticosteroids for Preterm Birth Study that relate preterm birth and perinatal mortality/morbidity. The approach provides a between-treatment comparison with respect to the probability of a bad clinical outcome. The performance of the approach was assessed using simulation and sensitivity analysis. Accounting for a possible treatment by center interaction increased the sample size from 540 to 700 patients per arm for the base case. The sample size requirements increase with the coefficient of variation and decrease with the number of centers. Under the same assumptions used for determining the sample size requirements, the simulated mean probability that pessary reduces the risk of perinatal mortality/morbidity is 0.98. The simulated mean decreased with coefficient of variation and increased with the number of clinical sites. Conclusion Employing simulation and sensitivity analysis is a useful approach for determining sample size requirements while accounting for the additional uncertainty due to a treatment by center interaction. Using a surrogate outcome in conjunction with a Bayesian decision model is an efficient way to compare important clinical outcomes in a randomized clinical trial in situations where the direct approach requires a prohibitively high sample size.

Parameter uncertainty in value sets of multiattribute utility-based instruments (MAUIs) has received little attention previously. This false precision leads to underestimation of the uncertainty of the results of cost-effectiveness analyses. The aim of this study is to examine the use of multiple imputation as a method to account for this uncertainty of MAUI scoring algorithms.We fitted a Bayesian model with random effects for respondents and health states to the data from the original US EQ-5D-3L valuation study, thereby estimating the uncertainty in the EQ-5D-3L scoring algorithm. We applied these results to EQ-5D-3L data from the Commonwealth Fund (CWF) Survey for Sick Adults ( n = 3958), comparing the standard error of the estimated mean utility in the CWF population using the predictive distribution from the Bayesian mixed-effect model (i.e., incorporating parameter uncertainty in the value set) with the standard error of the estimated mean utilities based on multiple imputation and the standard error using the conventional approach of using MAUI (i.e., ignoring uncertainty in the value set).The mean utility in the CWF population based on the predictive distribution of the Bayesian model was 0.827 with a standard error (SE) of 0.011. When utilities were derived using the conventional approach, the estimated mean utility was 0.827 with an SE of 0.003, which is only 25% of the SE based on the full predictive distribution of the mixed-effect model. Using multiple imputation with 20 imputed sets, the mean utility was 0.828 with an SE of 0.011, which is similar to the SE based on the full predictive distribution.Ignoring uncertainty of the predicted health utilities derived from MAUIs could lead to substantial underestimation of the variance of mean utilities. Multiple imputation corrects for this underestimation so that the results of cost-effectiveness analyses using MAUIs can report the correct degree of uncertainty.

Background Up to 30 % of children with acute asthma are refractory to initial therapy, and 84 % of this subpopulation needs hospitalization. Finding safe, noninvasive, and effective strategies to treat this high-risk group would substantially decrease hospitalizations, healthcare costs, and the psycho-social burden of the disease. Whereas intravenous magnesium (Mg) is effective in severe refractory asthma, its use is sporadic due to safety concerns, with the main treatment goal being to prevent intensive care unit admission. In contrast, nebulized Mg is noninvasive, allows higher pulmonary drug concentrations, and has a much higher safety potential due to the lower rate of systemic delivery. Previous studies of inhaled Mg show disparate results due to the use of unknown/inefficient delivery methods and other methodological flaws. Methods/Design The study is a randomized double-blind controlled trial in seven Canadian pediatric Emergency Departments (two-center pilot 2011 to 2014, Canada-wide November 2014 to December 2017). The trial will include 816 otherwise healthy children who are 2 to 17 years old, having had at least one previous wheezing episode, have received systemic corticosteroids, and have a Pediatric Respiratory Assessment Measure (PRAM) ≥ 5 points after three salbutamol and ipratropium treatments for a current acute asthma exacerbation. Eligible consenting children will receive three experimental treatments of nebulized salbutamol with either 600 mg of Mg sulfate or placebo 20 min apart, using an Aeroneb Go nebulizer, which has been shown to maximize pulmonary delivery while maintaining safety. The primary outcome is hospitalization within 24 h of the start of the experimental therapy for persistent respiratory distress or supplemental oxygen. Secondary outcomes include all-cause hospitalization within 24 h, PRAM, vital signs, number of bronchodilator treatments by 240 min, and the association between the difference in the primary outcome between the groups, age, gender, baseline PRAM, atopy, and “viral induced wheeze” phenotype (Fig. 1). Discussion If effective, inhaled Mg may represent an effective strategy to minimize morbidity in pediatric refractory acute asthma. Unlike previous works, this trial targets nonresponders to optimized initial therapy who are the most likely to benefit from inhaled Mg. Future dissemination of results will include knowledge translation, incorporation into a Cochrane Review, presentation at scientific meetings, and a peer-reviewed publication. Trial registration NCTO1429415, registered 2 September 2011. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13063-015-1151-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The objective of this study was to examine the impact of pedestrian countdown signals (PCS) on the rate of motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) in Toronto, Canada. A quasi-experimental design was used to compare rates of single and two vehicle MVCs before and after installation of PCS in Toronto, Canada between January 2005 and December 2009. Collision incidence rates were compared using Poisson regression analyses with adjustment for relevant cofounders and reported as incidence rate ratios (IRR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Secondary analyses were performed on subsets of collisions by collision type and injury severity. A total of 94,175 MVCs occurred at or near 1965 intersections at which PCS were installed over the five-year study period. Overall, the MVC incidence rate increased 7.5% (IRR = 1.075; 95% CI: 1.042-1.109; p < 0.0001) after installation of PCS. The installation of PCS led to an increase in MVCs. PCS may have an unintended consequence of increasing the rate of MVCs.

Importance Gastroenteritis is a common pediatric illness. Electrolyte maintenance solution is recommended to treat and prevent dehydration. Its advantage in minimally dehydrated children is unproven. Objective To determine if oral hydration with dilute apple juice/preferred fluids is noninferior to electrolyte maintenance solution in children with mild gastroenteritis. Design, Setting, and Participants Randomized, single-blind noninferiority trial conducted between the months of October and April during the years 2010 to 2015 in a tertiary care pediatric emergency department in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Study participants were children aged 6 to 60 months with gastroenteritis and minimal dehydration. Interventions Participants were randomly assigned to receive color-matched half-strength apple juice/preferred fluids (n=323) or apple-flavored electrolyte maintenance solution (n=324). Oral rehydration therapy followed institutional protocols. After discharge, the half-strength apple juice/preferred fluids group was administered fluids as desired; the electrolyte maintenance solution group replaced losses with electrolyte maintenance solution. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was a composite of treatment failure defined by any of the following occurring within 7 days of enrollment: intravenous rehydration, hospitalization, subsequent unscheduled physician encounter, protracted symptoms, crossover, and 3% or more weight loss or significant dehydration at in-person follow-up. Secondary outcomes included intravenous rehydration, hospitalization, and frequency of diarrhea and vomiting. The noninferiority margin was defined as a difference between groups of 7.5% for the primary outcome and was assessed with a 1-sided α=.025. If noninferiority was established, a 1-sided test for superiority was conducted. Results Among 647 randomized children (mean age, 28.3 months; 331 boys [51.1%]; 441 (68.2%) without evidence of dehydration), 644 (99.5%) completed follow-up. Children who were administered dilute apple juice experienced treatment failure less often than those given electrolyte maintenance solution (16.7% vs 25.0%; difference, −8.3%; 97.5% CI, −∞ to −2.0%; P P = .006 for superiority). Fewer children administered apple juice/preferred fluids received intravenous rehydration (2.5% vs 9.0%; difference, −6.5%; 99% CI, −11.6% to −1.8%). Hospitalization rates and diarrhea and vomiting frequency were not significantly different between groups. Conclusions and Relevance Among children with mild gastroenteritis and minimal dehydration, initial oral hydration with dilute apple juice followed by their preferred fluids, compared with electrolyte maintenance solution, resulted in fewer treatment failures. In many high-income countries, the use of dilute apple juice and preferred fluids as desired may be an appropriate alternative to electrolyte maintenance fluids in children with mild gastroenteritis and minimal dehydration. Trial Registration clinicaltrials.gov Identifier:NCT01185054

Background Most often, sample size determinations for randomized clinical trials are based on frequentist approaches that depend on somewhat arbitrarily chosen factors, such as type I and II error probabilities and the smallest clinically important difference. As an alternative, many authors have proposed decision-theoretic (full Bayesian) approaches, often referred to as value of information methods that attempt to determine the sample size that maximizes the difference between the trial’s expected utility and its expected cost, referred to as the expected net gain. Taking an industry perspective, Willan proposes a solution in which the trial’s utility is the increase in expected profit. Furthermore, Willan and Kowgier, taking a societal perspective, show that multistage designs can increase expected net gain. Purpose The purpose of this article is to determine the optimal sample size using value of information methods for industry-based, multistage adaptive randomized clinical trials, and to demonstrate the increase in expected net gain realized. At the end of each stage, the trial’s sponsor must decide between three actions: continue to the next stage, stop the trial and seek regulatory approval, or stop the trial and abandon the drug. Methods A model for expected total profit is proposed that includes consideration of per-patient profit, disease incidence, time horizon, trial duration, market share, and the relationship between trial results and probability of regulatory approval. The proposed method is extended to include multistage designs with a solution provided for a two-stage design. An example is given. Results Significant increases in the expected net gain are realized by using multistage designs. Limitations The complexity of the solutions increases with the number of stages, although far simpler near-optimal solutions exist. The method relies on the central limit theorem, assuming that the sample size is sufficiently large so that the relevant statistics are normally distributed. Conclusion From a value of information perspective, the use of multistage designs in industry trials leads to significant gains in the expected net gain.

Numerous acute pediatric pain assessment measures exist; however, pain assessment is not consistently performed in hospitalized children. The objective of this study was to determine the nature and frequency of acute pain assessment in Canadian pediatric hospitals and factors influencing it. Pain assessment practices and pain intensity scores documented during a 24-hour period were collected from 3,822 children aged 0 to 18 years hospitalized on 32 inpatient units in 8 Canadian pediatric hospitals. Pain assessment was documented at least once within the 24 hours for 2,615/3,822 (68.4%) children; 1,097 (28.7%) with a pain measure alone, 1,006 (26.3%) using pain narratives alone, and 512 (13.4%) with both a measure and narrative. Twenty-eight percent of assessments were conducted with validated measures. The mean standardized pain intensity score was 2.6/10 (SD 2.8); however, 33% of the children had either moderate (4–6/10) or severe (7–10/10) pain intensity recorded. Children who were older, ventilated, or hospitalized in surgical units were more likely to have a pain assessment score documented. Considerable variability in the nature and frequency of documented pain assessment in Canadian pediatric hospitals was found. These inconsistent practices and significant pain intensity in one-third of children warrant further research and practice change. Perspective This article presents current pediatric pain assessment practices and data on pain intensity in children in Canadian pediatric hospitals. These results highlight the variability in pain assessment practices and the prevalence of significant pain in hospitalized children, highlighting the need to effectively manage pain in this population.

Assessment of health state and health-related quality of life (HR-QOL) are limited by a child's age and cognitive ability. Parent-proxy reports are known to differ from children's reports. Simultaneous assessment using a parent-child dyad is an alternative approach.Our objective was to assess the validity, reliability and responsiveness of a parent-child dyad approach to utility and HR-QOL assessment of paediatric asthma health states.The setting was specialist care in a hospital-based asthma clinic. Participants were 91 girls and boys with asthma aged 8 to 17 years and 91 parents. The intervention employed was parent-child dyad administration of the Health Utilities Index (HUI) 2 and 3, the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory™ (PedsQL™) Core and Asthma modules, and the Pediatric Asthma Quality of Life Questionnaire (PAQLQ). Questionnaires were administered by interview to children and parents separately and then together as a dyad to assess the child's health state. The dyad interview was repeated at the next clinic visit. Dyad-child agreement was measured by intra-class correlation (ICC) coefficient; Spearman correlations were used to assess convergent validity. Test-retest reliability was assessed in 28 children who remained clinically stable between visits with a two-way ICC coefficient. Responsiveness to change from baseline was assessed with Spearman coefficients in 30 children who demonstrated clinical change between visits.There was no significant agreement between parent and child for the HUI2 or HUI3 whereas agreement between dyad and child was 0.55 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.36, 0.69) for the HUI2 and 0.74 (95% CI 0.61, 0.82) for the HUI3 overall. With respect to dyad performance characteristics, both HUI2 and HUI3 overall scores demonstrated moderate convergent validity with the generic PedsQL™ Core domains (range r = 0.30-0.52; p 0.01). Dyad HUI2 attributes demonstrated moderate convergent validity with the generic PedsQL™ Core domains of similar constructs (range r = 0.35-0.43; p 0.001) and weaker convergent validity with disease-specific domains (range r = 0.13-0.32). Dyad HUI3 attributes demonstrated weaker convergent validity compared with the HUI2. For the assessment of test-retest reliability, significant agreement between baseline and follow-up was observed for dyad HUI2 total (r = 0.53), dyad PedsQL™ Core summary (r = 0.70) and select dyad disease-specific domains. Significant responsiveness (r 0.4; p 0.05) was observed for dyad HUI2 total score change over time as correlated with dyad HUI3, dyad PedsQL™ Core summary and select disease-specific domains.The parent-child dyad approach demonstrated moderate to strong performance characteristics in generic and disease-specific questionnaires suggesting it may be a valuable alternative to relying on parent proxies for assessing children's utility and HR-QOL. Future research in additional paediatric populations, younger children and a population-based sample would be useful.

Objective The results of two randomized clinical trials (RCTs) demonstrate the clinical effectiveness of alternatives to casting for certain ankle and wrist fractures. We illustrate the use of value of information (VOI) methods for evaluating the evidence provided by these studies with respect to decision making. Study Design and Setting Using cost-effectiveness data from these studies, the expected value of sample information (EVSI) of a future RCT can be determined. If the EVSI exceeds the cost of the future trial for any sample size, then the current evidence is considered insufficient for decision making and a future trial is considered worthwhile. If, on the other hand, there is no sample size for which the EVSI exceeds the cost, then the evidence is considered sufficient, and no future trial is required. Results We found that the evidence from the ankle study was insufficient to support the adoption of the removable device and determined the optimal sample size for a future trial. Conversely, the evidence from the wrist study was sufficient to support the adoption of the removable device. Conclusions VOI methods provide a decision-analytic alternative to the standard hypothesis testing approach for assessing the evidence provided by cost-effectiveness studies and for determining sample sizes for RCTs.

Severe haemophilia results in increased mortality and poorer quality of life. Factor prophylaxis leads to a more normal life, but is very costly; most of the cost is due to the high cost of replacement factor. Despite its high cost, factor prophylaxis has been adopted throughout the developed world--even in different health care systems. We argue that there are at least five possible reasons why societies may value factor prophylaxis despite its cost: (i) it is directed towards an inherited disease, (ii) the treatment is largely directed towards children, (iii) the disease is rare and the overall cost to society is small, (iv) the treatment is preventative, and v) the high cost is largely the result of providing safe products. In an era of rising health care costs, there is a strong research agenda to establish the factors that determine the value of expensive therapies for rare diseases like haemophilia.

Previous application of value-of-information methods to optimal clinical trial design have predominantly taken a societal decision-making perspective, implicitly assuming that healthcare costs are covered through public expenditure and trial research is funded by government or donation-based philanthropic agencies. In this paper, we consider the interaction between interrelated perspectives of a societal decision maker (e.g. the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence &lsqb;NICE&rsqb; in the UK) charged with the responsibility for approving new health interventions for reimbursement and the company that holds the patent for a new intervention. We establish optimal decision making from societal and company perspectives, allowing for trade-offs between the value and cost of research and the price of the new intervention. Given the current level of evidence, there exists a maximum (threshold) price acceptable to the decision maker. Submission for approval with prices above this threshold will be refused. Given the current level of evidence and the decision maker's threshold price, there exists a minimum (threshold) price acceptable to the company. If the decision maker's threshold price exceeds the company's, then current evidence is sufficient since any price between the thresholds is acceptable to both. On the other hand, if the decision maker's threshold price is lower than the company's, then no price is acceptable to both and the company's optimal strategy is to commission additional research. The methods are illustrated using a recent example from the literature.