Search

Background Ovarian and tubal cancers are lethal gynaecological cancers, with over 50% of the patients diagnosed at advanced stage. Trial design Randomised controlled trial involving 27 primary care trusts adjacent to 13 trial centres based at NHS Trusts in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Methods Participants Postmenopausal average-risk women, aged 50–74, with intact ovaries and no previous ovarian or current non-ovarian cancer. Interventions One of two annual screening strategies: (1) multimodal screening (MMS) using a longitudinal CA125 algorithm with repeat CA125 testing and transvaginal scan (TVS) as second line test (2) ultrasound screening (USS) using TVS alone with repeat scan to confirm any abnormality. The control (C) group had no screening. Follow-up was through linkage to national registries, postal follow-up questionnaires and direct communication with trial centres and participants. Objective To assess comprehensively risks and benefits of ovarian cancer screening in the general population. Outcome Primary outcome was death due to ovarian or tubal cancer as assigned by an independent outcomes review committee. Secondary outcomes included incidence and stage at diagnosis of ovarian and tubal cancer, compliance, performance characteristics, harms and cost-effectiveness of the two screening strategies and a bioresource for future research. Randomisation The trial management system confirmed eligibility and randomly allocated participants using computer-generated random numbers to MMS, USS and C groups in a 1:1:2 ratio. Blinding Investigators and participants were unblinded and outcomes review committee was masked to randomisation group. Analyses Primary analyses were by intention to screen, comparing separately MMS and USS with C using the Versatile test. Results Recruitment 1,243,282 women were invited and 205,090 attended for recruitment between April 2001 and September 2005. Randomised 202,638 women: 50,640 MMS, 50,639 USS and 101,359 C group. Numbers analysed for primary outcome 202,562 (>99.9%): 50,625 (>99.9%) MMS, 50,623 (>99.9%) USS, and 101,314 (>99.9%) C group. Outcome Women in MMS and USS groups underwent 345,570 and 327,775 annual screens between randomisation and 31 December 2011. At median follow-up of 16.3 (IQR 15.1–17.3) years, 2055 women developed ovarian or tubal cancer: 522 (1.0% of 50,625) MMS, 517 (1.0% of 50,623) USS, and 1016 (1.0% of 101314) in C group. Compared to the C group, in the MMS group, the incidence of Stage I/II disease was 39.2% (95% CI 16.1 to 66.9) higher and stage III/IV 10.2% (95% CI –21.3 to 2.4) lower. There was no difference in stage in the USS group. 1206 women died of the disease: 296 (0.6%) MMS, 291 (0.6%) USS, and 619 (0.6%) C group. There was no significant reduction in ovarian and tubal cancer deaths in either MMS (p = 0.580) or USS (p = 0.360) groups compared to the C group. Overall compliance with annual screening episode was 80.8% (345,570/420,047) in the MMS and 78.0% (327,775/420,047) in the USS group. For ovarian and tubal cancers diagnosed within one year of the last test in a screening episode, in the MMS group, the sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive values were 83.8% (95% CI 78.7 to 88.1), 99.8% (95% CI 99.8 to 99.9), and 28.8% (95% CI 25.5 to 32.2) and in the USS group, 72.2% (95% CI 65.9 to 78.0), 99.5% (95% CI 99.5 to 99.5), and 9.1% (95% CI 7.8 to 10.5) respectively. The final within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis was not undertaken as there was no mortality reduction. A bioresource (UKCTOCS Longitudinal Women’s Cohort) of longitudinal outcome data and over 0.5 million serum samples including serial annual samples in women in the MMS group was established and to date has been used in many new studies, mainly focused on early detection of cancer. Harms Both screening tests (venepuncture and TVS) were associated with minor complications with low (8.6/100,000 screens MMS; 18.6/100,000 screens USS) complication rates. Screening itself did not cause anxiety unless more intense repeat testing was required following abnormal screens. In the MMS group, for each screen-detected ovarian or tubal cancer, an additional 2.3 (489 false positives; 212 cancers) women in the MMS group had unnecessary false-positive (benign adnexal pathology or normal adnexa) surgery. Overall, 14 (489/345,572 annual screens) underwent unnecessary surgery per 10,000 screens. In the USS group, for each screen-detected ovarian or tubal cancer, an additional 10 (1630 false positives; 164 cancers) underwent unnecessary false-positive surgery. Overall, 50 (1630/327,775 annual screens) women underwent unnecessary surgery per 10,000 screens. Conclusions Population screening for ovarian and tubal cancer for average-risk women using these strategies should not be undertaken. Decreased incidence of Stage III/IV cancers during multimodal screening did not translate to mortality reduction. Researchers should be cautious about using early stage as a surrogate outcome in screening trials. Meanwhile the bioresource provides a unique opportunity to evaluate early cancer detection tests. Funding Long-term follow-up UKCTOCS (2015–2020) – National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR HTA grant 16/46/01), Cancer Research UK, and The Eve Appeal. UKCTOCS (2001–2014) – Medical Research Council (MRC) (G9901012/G0801228), Cancer Research UK (C1479/A2884), and the UK Department of Health, with additional support from The Eve Appeal. Researchers at UCL were supported by the NIHR UCL Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre and by MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL core funding (MR_UU_12023).

BACKGROUND: Cyclin E1 (CCNE1) is a potential predictive marker and therapeutic target in tubo-ovarian high-grade serous carcinoma (HGSC). Smaller studies have revealed unfavorable associations for CCNE1 amplification and CCNE1 overexpression with survival, but to date no large-scale, histotype-specific validation has been performed. The hypothesis was that high-level amplification of CCNE1 and CCNE1 overexpression, as well as a combination of the two, are linked to shorter overall survival in HGSC. METHODS: Within the Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis consortium, amplification status and protein level in 3029 HGSC cases and mRNA expression in 2419 samples were investigated. RESULTS: High-level amplification (>8 copies by chromogenic in situ hybridization) was found in 8.6% of HGSC and overexpression (>60% with at least 5% demonstrating strong intensity by immunohistochemistry) was found in 22.4%. CCNE1 high-level amplification and overexpression both were linked to shorter overall survival in multivariate survival analysis adjusted for age and stage, with hazard stratification by study (hazard ratio [HR], 1.26; 95% CI, 1.08-1.47, p = .034, and HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.05-1.32, p = .015, respectively). This was also true for cases with combined high-level amplification/overexpression (HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.09-1.47, p = .033). CCNE1 mRNA expression was not associated with overall survival (HR, 1.00 per 1-SD increase; 95% CI, 0.94-1.06; p = .58). CCNE1 high-level amplification is mutually exclusive with the presence of germline BRCA1/2 pathogenic variants and shows an inverse association to RB1 loss. CONCLUSION: This study provides large-scale validation that CCNE1 high-level amplification is associated with shorter survival, supporting its utility as a prognostic biomarker in HGSC. ispartof: CANCER vol:129 issue:5 pages:697-713 ispartof: location:United States status: published

Background Recently, we showed a >60% difference in 5-year survival for patients with tubo-ovarian high-grade serous carcinoma (HGSC) when stratified by a 101-gene mRNA expression prognostic signature. Given the varied patient outcomes, this study aimed to translate prognostic mRNA markers into protein expression assays by immunohistochemistry and validate their survival association in HGSC. Methods Two prognostic genes, FOXJ1 and GMNN, were selected based on high-quality antibodies, correlation with protein expression and variation in immunohistochemical scores in a preliminary cohort (n = 134 and n = 80, respectively). Six thousand four hundred and thirty-four (FOXJ1) and 5470 (GMNN) formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded ovarian neoplasms (4634 and 4185 HGSC, respectively) represented on tissue microarrays from the Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis consortium underwent immunohistochemical staining and scoring, then univariate and multivariate survival analysis. Results Consistent with mRNA, FOXJ1 protein expression exhibited a linear, increasing association with improved overall survival in HGSC patients. Women with >50% expression had the most favourable outcomes (HR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.67–0.91, p 35% GMNN expression showed a trend for better outcomes, though this was not significant. Conclusion We provide foundational evidence for the prognostic value of FOXJ1 in HGSC, validating the prior mRNA-based prognostic association by immunohistochemistry.

Early detection of ovarian cancer has the potential to impact mortality. A multimodal screening strategy where rising CA125 values over time, analyzed with the risk of ovarian cancer algorithm (ROCA), triggers transvaginal sonography and possible surgery has high sensitivity and specificity, but still fails to detect the 20% of early-stage cases that do not express CA125. Use of multiple biomarkers could detect cases missed by CA125. We have studied the sensitivity and lead time of a multi-marker panel (CA125, HE4, MMP-7, and CA 72-4) compared with CA125 alone. We used PRoBE design principles to select preclinical longitudinal specimens from 75 women (50 screen-positive, 25 screen-negative) who developed invasive epithelial ovarian cancer (3–5 serial specimens each) and 547 corresponding healthy controls (1–10 serial specimens each) from the ovarian cancer screening trial, UKCTOCS, in a blinded fashion. We measured the multi-marker concentrations in ultra-low serum volumes (16 μL) utilizing multiplexed bead-based immunoassays with low detection limits, high inter- and intra-assay precision, negligible cross-reactivity, and good correlation with standard immunoassays. While, at least one of the complementary biomarkers rose with CA125 in 44% (22/50) of screen-positive cases, there was no advantage in lead time over CA125. Therefore, we developed single-marker longitudinal algorithms (ROCA-like) to determine the presence of a change point to distinguish between the cases and controls. Using these algorithms, at 98% specificity, HE4 and CA72-4 identified 16% (4/25) of screen-negative cases, while MMP-7 identified none. Taken together, HE4 and CA72-4 show promise as complementary biomarkers to CA125 for longitudinal screening.

Tables 1-4

Figures 1-3

Supplementary figure legend

Supplemental Figure 2. VEGFR TKIs inhibit the migration of NSCLC cells with KDR CNGs.

Supplementary figures, tables and materials & methods Supplementary Figure 1. Schematic presentation of steps in immunoassay development, validation and studies for screening TP53 autoantibody in human serum samples. Supplementary Figure 2. Identifying a common cut-off value for TP53 autoantibody immunoassay. Supplementary Table 1. Characteristics of patients with invasive epithelial ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancer in MDACC-NROSS set Supplementary Table 2. Characteristics of patients with invasive epithelial ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancer in AOCS set Supplementary Table 3. Characteristics of patients with invasive epithelial ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancer by stage and primary site in the UKCTOCS study Supplementary Figure 3. Examples of longitudinal analysis of CA125 and TP53 autoantibody titers in pre-diagnostic serial serum samples from ovarian cancer patients in the UKCTOCS Study. Supplementary Figure 4. ROC curve analysis for TP53 autoantibody and CA125 biomarkers in UKCTOCS trial. Supplementary Figure 5. Comparison of TP53 autoantibody titers between cancer cases with TP53 wild-type and mutant genes in the AOCS biobanking study. Supplementary Figure 6. The list of TP53 mutant protein candidates for preliminary screening of autoantibody against specific TP53 mutant proteins. Supplementary Table 4. Summary of specific TP53 mutant autoantibody titers of individual cancer patients with corresponding TP53 protein mutations in the AOCS biobanking study Supplementary Table 5. Summary of multiplex immunoassay results for screening TP53 mutant-specific autoantibody using samples from the AOCS biobanking study.

Purpose: VEGF pathway inhibitors have been investigated as therapeutic agents in the treatment of non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) because of its central role in angiogenesis. These agents have improved survival in patients with advanced NSCLC, but the effects have been modest. Although VEGFR2/KDR is typically localized to the vasculature, amplification of KDR has reported to occur in 9% to 30% of the DNA from different lung cancers. We investigated the signaling pathways activated downstream of KDR and whether KDR amplification is associated with benefit in patients with NSCLC treated with the VEGFR inhibitor vandetanib.Methods: NSCLC cell lines with or without KDR amplification were studied for the effects of VEGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) on cell viability and migration. Archival tumor samples collected from patients with platinum-refractory NSCLC in the phase III ZODIAC study of vandetanib plus docetaxel or placebo plus docetaxel (N = 294) were screened for KDR amplification by FISH.Results: KDR amplification was associated with VEGF-induced activation of mTOR, p38, and invasiveness in NSCLC cell lines. However, VEGFR TKIs did not inhibit proliferation of NSCLC cell lines with KDR amplification. VEGFR inhibition decreased cell motility as well as expression of HIF1α in KDR-amplified NSCLC cells. In the ZODIAC study, KDR amplification was observed in 15% of patients and was not associated with improved progression-free survival, overall survival, or objective response rate for the vandetanib arm.Conclusions: Preclinical studies suggest KDR activates invasion but not survival pathways in KDR-amplified NSCLC models. Patients with NSCLC whose tumor had KDR amplification were not associated with clinical benefit for vandetanib in combination with docetaxel. Clin Cancer Res; 22(8); 1940–50. ©2015 AACR.

Purpose: In the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS), women in the multimodal (MMS) arm had a serum CA125 test (first-line), with those at increased risk, having repeat CA125/ultrasound (second-line test). CA125 was interpreted using the “Risk of Ovarian Cancer Algorithm” (ROCA). We report on performance of other serial algorithms and a single CA125 threshold as a first-line screen in the UKCTOCS dataset.Experimental Design: 50,083 post-menopausal women who attended 346,806 MMS screens were randomly split into training and validation sets, following stratification into cases (ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancers) and controls. The two longitudinal algorithms, a new serial algorithm, method of mean trends (MMT) and the parametric empirical Bayes (PEB) were trained in the training set and tested in the blinded validation set and the performance characteristics, including that of a single CA125 threshold, were compared.Results: The area under receiver operator curve (AUC) was significantly higher (P = 0.01) for MMT (0.921) compared with CA125 single threshold (0.884). At a specificity of 89.5%, sensitivities for MMT [86.5%; 95% confidence interval (CI), 78.4–91.9] and PEB (88.5%; 95% CI, 80.6–93.4) were similar to that reported for ROCA (sensitivity 87.1%; specificity 87.6%; AUC 0.915) and significantly higher than the single CA125 threshold (73.1%; 95% CI, 63.6–80.8).Conclusions: These findings from the largest available serial CA125 dataset in the general population provide definitive evidence that longitudinal algorithms are significantly superior to simple cutoff values for ovarian cancer screening. Use of these newer algorithms requires incorporation into a multimodal strategy. The results highlight the importance of incorporating serial change in biomarker levels in cancer screening/early detection strategies. Clin Cancer Res; 24(19); 4726–33. ©2018 AACR.

Supplemental Figure 1. (A) Calu-1 cells were treated with VEGF (50 ng/ml) for 15 minutes and phospho-p38 levels were evaluated by Western blotting. VEGF treatment resulted in activation of p38, and this was blocked with the addition of VEGFR TKIs axitinib or sorafenib. (B) A549, H23, and Calu-1 cells express minimal levels of VEGFR1 as determined by ELISA assay. SKNAS neuroblastoma cells serve as a positive control.

MMT / PEB values in training and validation of the algorithms based on the primary analysis

In the TCGA NSCLC dataset there was a significantly greater prevalence of p53 mutations in patients with KDR CNG compared to KDR CNG negative patients (p = 0.001).

Purpose: The TP53 tumor-suppressor gene is mutated in >95% of high-grade serous ovarian cancers. Detecting an autologous antibody response to TP53 that might improve early detection.Experimental Design: An immunoassay was developed to measure TP53 autoantibody in sera from 378 cases of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer and 944 age-matched healthy controls from the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom. Serial preclinical samples from cases and controls were also assayed from the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS).Results: Using a cutoff value of 78 U/mL to achieve a specificity of 97.4%, TP53 autoantibody was elevated in 30% of 50 cases from MD Anderson, 21.3% of 108 cases from the Australian Ovarian Cancer Study, and 21% of 220 cases from the UKCTOCS. Among 164 cases with rising CA125 detected with the UKCTOCS risk of ovarian cancer algorithm (ROCA), 20.7% had elevated TP53 autoantibody. In cases missed by the ROCA, 16% of cases had elevated TP53 autoantibody. Of the 34 ovarian cancer cases detected with the ROCA, TP53 autoantibody titers were elevated 11.0 months before CA125. In the 9 cases missed by the ROCA, TP53 autoantibody was elevated 22.9 months before cancer diagnosis. Similar sensitivity was obtained using assays with specific mutant and wild-type TP53.Conclusions: TP53 autoantibody levels provide a biomarker with clinically significant lead time over elevation of CA125 or an elevated ROCA value. Quantitative assessment of autoantibodies in combination with CA125 holds promise for earlier detection of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer. Clin Cancer Res; 23(19); 5912–22. ©2017 AACR.

Objective Estrogen is a well‐established risk factor for various cancers. It causes endometrial proliferation, which is assessed routinely as endometrial thickness (ET) using transvaginal ultrasound (TVS). Only one previous study, restricted to endometrial and breast cancer, has considered ET and the risk of non‐endometrial cancer. The aim of this study was to explore the association between baseline and serial ET measurements and nine non‐endometrial hormone‐sensitive cancers, in postmenopausal women, using contemporary statistical methodology that attempts to minimize the biases typical of endogenous serial data. Methods This was a cohort study nested within the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). In the ultrasound arm of UKCTOCS, 50639 postmenopausal women, aged 50–74, underwent annual TVS examination, of whom 38 105 had a valid ET measurement, no prior hysterectomy and complete covariate data, and were included in this study. All women were followed up through linkage to national cancer registries. The effect of ET on the risk of six estrogen‐dependent cancers (breast, ovarian, colorectal, bladder, lung and pancreatic) was assessed using joint models for longitudinal biomarker and time‐to‐event data, and Cox models were used to assess the association between baseline ET measurement and these six cancers in addition to liver cancer, gastric cancer and non‐Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL). All models were adjusted for current hormone‐replacement therapy (HRT) use, body mass index, age at last menstrual period, parity and oral contraceptive pill use. Results The 38 105 included women had a combined total of 267 567 (median, 8; interquartile range, 5–9) valid ET measurements. During a combined total of 407 838 (median, 10.9) years of follow‐up, 1398 breast, 351 endometrial, 381 lung, 495 colorectal, 222 ovarian, 94 pancreatic, 79 bladder, 62 gastric, 38 liver cancers and 52 NHLs were registered. Using joint models, a doubling of ET increased significantly the risk of breast (hazard ratio (HR), 1.21; 95% CI, 1.09–1.36; P = 0.001), ovarian (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.06–1.82; P = 0.018) and lung (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.02–1.54; P = 0.036) cancers. There were no statistically significant associations between ET and the remaining six cancers. Conclusion Postmenopausal women with high/increasing ET on TVS are at increased risk of breast, ovarian and lung cancer. It is important that clinicians are aware of these risks, as TVS is a common investigation. © 2019 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Objective There are widespread efforts to increase symptom awareness of ‘pelvic/abdominal pain, increased abdominal size/bloating, difficulty eating/feeling full and urinary frequency/urgency’ in an attempt to diagnose ovarian cancer earlier. Long-term survival of women with these symptoms adjusted for known prognostic factors is yet to be determined. This study explored the association of symptoms, routes and interval to diagnosis and long-term survival in a population-based cohort of postmenopausal women diagnosed with invasive epithelial tubo-ovarian cancer (iEOC) in the ‘no screen’ (control) UKCTOCS arm. Methods Of 101,299 women in the control arm, 574 were confirmed on outcome review to have iEOC between randomisation (2001–2005) and 31 December 2014. Data was extracted from medical notes and electronic records. A multivariable model was fitted for individual symptoms, time interval from symptom onset to diagnosis, route to diagnosis, speciality, morphological Type, age at diagnosis, year of diagnosis (period effect), stage, primary treatment, and residual disease. Results Women presenting with symptoms listed in the NICE guidelines (HR1.48, 95%CI1.16–1.89, p = 0.001) or the modified Goff Index (HR1·68, 95%CI1·32–2.13, p, Highlights • This study explored the association of symptoms of ovarian cancer, interval and route to diagnosis with survival. • Focus on ‘high alert’ symptoms: pelvic/abdominal pain, increase abdominal size/bloating and difficulty eating/feeling full • The ovarian cancer ‘high alert’ symptom complexes identify postmenopausal women with a significantly poorer prognosis. • The study could not however exclude the possibility of better outcomes in those who are aware and acted on these symptoms.

Funder: Department of Health; FundRef: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000276, Funder: Ontario Research Fund, Funder: CHU de Quebec Foundation, Funder: Fondation du cancer du sein du Qu��bec; FundRef: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100016328, Funder: The Eve Appeal, Background: Epithelial tubo-ovarian cancer (EOC) has high mortality partly due to late diagnosis. Prevention is available but may be associated with adverse effects. A multifactorial risk model based on known genetic and epidemiological risk factors (RFs) for EOC can help identify women at higher risk who could benefit from targeted screening and prevention. Methods: We developed a multifactorial EOC risk model for women of European ancestry incorporating the effects of pathogenic variants (PVs) in BRCA1, BRCA2, RAD51C, RAD51D and BRIP1, a Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) of arbitrary size, the effects of RFs and explicit family history (FH) using a synthetic model approach. The PRS, PV and RFs were assumed to act multiplicatively. Results: Based on a currently available PRS for EOC that explains 5% of the EOC polygenic variance, the estimated lifetime risks under the multifactorial model in the general population vary from 0.5% to 4.6% for the first to 99th percentiles of the EOC risk distribution. The corresponding range for women with an affected first-degree relative is 1.9%���10.3%. Based on the combined risk distribution, 33% of RAD51D PV carriers are expected to have a lifetime EOC risk of less than 10%. RFs provided the widest distribution, followed by the PRS. In an independent partial model validation, absolute and relative 5-year risks were well calibrated in quintiles of predicted risk. Conclusion: This multifactorial risk model can facilitate stratification, in particular among women with FH of cancer and/or moderate-risk and high-risk PVs. The model is available via the CanRisk Tool (www.canrisk.org).

Ovarian cancer is most commonly diagnosed at an advanced stage (3 or 4) and remains the deadliest gynecologic malignancy. When diagnosed at stage 1, a survival rate of greater than 90% has been demonstrated, compared with a 5-year survival rate of 27% and 13% for stage 3 and stage 4 disease, respectively. Despite international efforts to identify robust screening methods and increase early-stage detection, to date no evidence that screening saves lives has been presented. The UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) is a randomized controlled trial that demonstrated no evidence associated with screening for ovarian cancer and reduction in ovarian cancer-related deaths at primary analysis but requires further follow-up. This secondary analysis of the UKCTOCS randomized controlled trial aimed to provide a follow-up and report on the long-term mortality effects of ovarian cancer screening. The UKCTOCS is a multicenter randomized trial of 202,638 women aged 50 to 74 years assigned to 2 annual screening groups (multimodal screening [MMS] vs ultrasound screening [USS]). Women in the United Kingdom were recruited from 13 National Health Service (NHS) centers and randomized to MMS, USS, or no screening in a 1:1:2 ratio. Annual screening in the MMS group involved serum CA125 measurements used in conjunction with the risk of ovarian cancer (ROCA) calculation to guide follow-up involving either no additional screening, repeat CA125 ROCA in 3 months, or transvaginal USS as a second test. Annual screening in the USS group involved transvaginal ultrasound with follow-up involving either continuation of annual screening, repeat in 3 months, or requiring a scan with a senior ultrasonographer within 6 weeks. The primary study outcome was death due to ovarian cancer or tubal cancer. A total of 202,638 women were randomized between April 2001 and September 2005, with screening concluding in December 2011 and follow-up continuing until June 2020. The final analysis cohort consisted of 202,562 women, 50,625 in the MMS group, 50,623 in the USS group, and 101,314 in the no screening group. Compliance with screening was 81% in the MMS group versus 78% in the USS group, with a median of 8 annual screens per participant. The median follow-up was 16.3 years (interquartile range, 15.1–17.3). A total of 2055 participants were diagnosed with ovarian or tubal cancer. At 9.5 years after screening, there was a 47.2% (95% confidence interval, 19.7–81.1) greater incidence of stage 1 disease and a 24.5% (-41.8 to -2.0) lower incidence of stage IV disease in the MMS group compared with the no screening group. Overall, a 39.2% (95% confidence interval, 16.1–66.9) greater incidence of stage I or II disease and a 10.2% (-21.3 to 2.4) lower incidence of stage III or IV disease was observed in the MMS group compared with the no screening group. At follow-up conclusion, 1206 women had died of ovarian cancer (296/50,625 [0.6%] in the MMS group, 291/50,623 [0.6%] in the USS group, 619/101,314 [0.6%] in the no screening group) with no significant difference between the MMS (P = 0.58) and USS (P = 0.36) groups compared with the no screening group. The results of this large-scale ovarian cancer screening trial demonstrate that, on long-term follow-up, while the screening strategies defined here resulted in a greater likelihood of diagnosing early stage disease, neither MMS nor USS resulted in a significant reduction in deaths from ovarian or tubal cancer.

Artificial Intelligence methods can be very effective in classification tasks that involve the processing of ordered sequences of data. Here we explore two different approaches to tackle the problem of ovarian cancer detection from a sequence of longitudinal measurements of several biomarkers. The first approach relies on a Bayesian hierarchical model whose fundamental assumption is that measurements taken from case subjects exhibit a changepoint in one or several biomarkers. The second approach is a purely discriminative machine learning algorithm based on the use of recurrent neural networks, a kind of artificial neural network specially suited to the processing of inputs of different lengths.

OBJECTIVE To investigate the association between hysterectomy with conservation of one or both adnexa and ovarian and tubal cancer. DESIGN Prospective cohort study. SETTING Thirteen NHS Trusts in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. POPULATION A total of 202 506 postmenopausal women recruited between 2001 and 2005 to the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) and followed up until 31 December 2014. METHODS Multiple sources (questionnaires, hospital notes, Hospital Episodes Statistics, national cancer/death registries, ultrasound reports) were used to obtain accurate data on hysterectomy (with conservation of one or both adnexa) and outcomes censored at bilateral oophorectomy, death, ovarian/tubal cancer diagnosis, loss to follow up or 31 December 2014. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the association. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Invasive epithelial ovarian and tubal cancer (WHO 2014) on independent outcome review. RESULTS Hysterectomy with conservation of one or both adnexa was reported in 41 912 (20.7%; 41 912/202 506) women. Median follow up was 11.1 years (interquartile range 9.96-12.04), totalling >2.17 million woman-years. Among women who had undergone hysterectomy, 0.55% (231/41 912) were diagnosed with ovarian/tubal cancer, compared with 0.59% (945/160 594) of those with intact uterus. Multivariable analysis showed no evidence of an association between hysterectomy and invasive epithelial ovarian/tubal cancer (hazard ratio 0.98, 95% CI 0.85-1.13, P = 0.765). CONCLUSIONS This large cohort study provides further independent validation that hysterectomy is not associated with alteration of invasive epithelial ovarian and tubal cancer risk. These data are important both for clinical counselling and for refining risk prediction models. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT Hysterectomy does not alter risk of invasive epithelial ovarian and tubal cancer.

Background During trials that span decades, new evidence including progress in statistical methodology, may require revision of original assumptions. An example is the continued use of a constant-effect approach to analyse the mortality reduction which is often delayed in cancer-screening trials. The latter led us to re-examine our approach for the upcoming primary mortality analysis (2020) of long-term follow-up of the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (LTFU UKCTOCS), having initially (2014) used the proportional hazards (PH) Cox model. Methods We wrote to 12 experts in statistics/epidemiology/screening trials, setting out current evidence, the importance of pre-specification, our previous mortality analysis (2014) and three possible choices for the follow-up analysis (2020) of the mortality outcome: (A) all data (2001–2020) using the Cox model (2014), (B) new data (2015–2020) only and (C) all data (2001–2020) using a test that allows for delayed effects. Results Of 11 respondents, eight supported changing the 2014 approach to allow for a potential delayed effect (option C), suggesting various tests while three favoured retaining the Cox model (option A). Consequently, we opted for the Versatile test introduced in 2016 which maintains good power for early, constant or delayed effects. We retained the Royston-Parmar model to estimate absolute differences in disease-specific mortality at 5, 10, 15 and 18 years. Conclusions The decision to alter the follow-up analysis for the primary outcome on the basis of new evidence and using new statistical methodology for long-term follow-up is novel and has implications beyond UKCTOCS. There is an urgent need for consensus building on how best to design, test, estimate and report mortality outcomes from long-term randomised cancer screening trials. Trial registration ISRCTN22488978. Registered on 6 April 2000.

Background There is a trend to increasing use of routinely collected health data to ascertain outcome measures in trials. We report on the completeness and accuracy of national ovarian cancer and death registration in the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). Methods Of the 202,638 participants, 202,632 were successfully linked and followed through national cancer and death registries of Northern Ireland, Wales and England. Women with registrations of any of 19 pre-defined ICD-10 codes suggestive of tubo-ovarian cancer or notification of ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancer from hospital episode statistics or trial sites were identified. Copies of hospital and primary care notes were retrieved and reviewed by an independent outcomes review committee. National registration of site and cause of death as ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancer (C56/C57/C48) obtained up to 3 months after trial censorship was compared to that assigned by outcomes review (reference standard). Results Outcome review was undertaken in 3110 women on whom notification was received between 2001 and 2014. Ovarian cancer was confirmed in 1324 of whom 1125 had a relevant cancer registration. Sensitivity and specificity of ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancer registration were 85.0% (1125/1324; 95% CI 83.7–86.2%) and 94.0% (1679/1786; 95% CI 93.2–94.8%), respectively. Of 2041 death registrations reviewed, 681 were confirmed to have a tubo-ovarian cancer of whom 605 had relevant death registration. Sensitivity and specificity were 88.8% (605/681; 95% CI 86.4–91.2%) and 96.7% (1482/1533, 95% CI 95.8–97.6%), respectively. When multiple electronic health record sources were considered, sensitivity for cancer site increased to 91.1% (1206/1324, 95% CI 89.4–92.5%) and for cause of death 94.0% (640/681, 95% CI 91.9–95.5%). Of 1232 with cancer registration, 8.7% (107/1232) were wrongly designated as ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancers by the registry and 4.0% (47/1172) of confirmed tubo-ovarian cancers were mis-registered. In 656 with death registrations, 7.8% (51/656) were wrongly assigned as due to ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancers while 6.2% (40/645) of confirmed tubo-ovarian cancer deaths were mis-registered. Conclusion Follow-up of trial participants for tubo-ovarian cancer using national registry data will result in incomplete ascertainment, particularly of the site due in part to the latency of registration. This can be reduced by using other routinely collected data such as hospital episode statistics. Central adjudication by experts though resource intensive adds value by improving the accuracy of diagnoses. Trial registration ISRCTN: ISRCTN22488978. Registered on 6 April 2000

BackgroundEpithelial tubo-ovarian cancer (EOC) has high mortality partly due to late diagnosis. Prevention is available but may be associated with adverse effects. A multifactorial risk model based on known genetic and epidemiological risk factors (RFs) for EOC can help identify females at higher risk who could benefit from targeted screening and prevention.MethodsWe developed a multifactorial EOC risk model for females of European ancestry incorporating the effects of pathogenic variants (PVs) inBRCA1, BRCA2, RAD51C, RAD51DandBRIP1, a polygenic risk score (PRS) of arbitrary size, the effects of RFs and explicit family history (FH) using a synthetic model approach. The PRS, PV and RFs were assumed to act multiplicatively.ResultsBased on a currently available PRS for EOC that explains 5% of the EOC polygenic variance, the estimated lifetime risks under the multifactorial model in the general population vary from 0.5% to 4.6% for the 1stto 99thpercentiles of the EOC risk-distribution. The corresponding range for females with an affected first-degree relative is 1.9% to 10.3%. Based on the combined risk distribution, 33% of RAD51D PV carriers are expected to have a lifetime EOC risk of less than 10%. RFs provided the widest distribution, followed by the PRS. In an independent partial model validation, absolute and relative 5-year risks were well-calibrated in quintiles of predicted risk.ConclusionThis multifactorial risk model can facilitate stratification, in particular among females with FH of cancer and/or moderate- and high-risk PVs. The model is available via the CanRisk Tool (www.canrisk.org).

Background Low socio-economic position (SEP) is a risk factor for multiple health outcomes, but its molecular imprints in the body remain unclear. Methods We examined SEP as a determinant of serum nuclear magnetic resonance metabolic profiles in ∼30 000 adults and 4000 children across 10 UK and Finnish cohort studies. Results In risk-factor-adjusted analysis of 233 metabolic measures, low educational attainment was associated with 37 measures including higher levels of triglycerides in small high-density lipoproteins (HDL) and lower levels of docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), omega-3 fatty acids, apolipoprotein A1, large and very large HDL particles (including levels of their respective lipid constituents) and cholesterol measures across different density lipoproteins. Among adults whose father worked in manual occupations, associations with apolipoprotein A1, large and very large HDL particles and HDL-2 cholesterol remained after adjustment for SEP in later life. Among manual workers, levels of glutamine were higher compared with non-manual workers. All three indicators of low SEP were associated with lower DHA, omega-3 fatty acids and HDL diameter. At all ages, children of manual workers had lower levels of DHA as a proportion of total fatty acids. Conclusions Our work indicates that social and economic factors have a measurable impact on human physiology. Lower SEP was independently associated with a generally unfavourable metabolic profile, consistent across ages and cohorts. The metabolites we found to be associated with SEP, including DHA, are known to predict cardiovascular disease and cognitive decline in later life and may contribute to health inequalities.

Background: There is a trend to increasing use of routinely collected health data to ascertain outcome measures in trials. We report on completeness and accuracy of national ovarian cancer and death registration in the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS).Methods: Of the 202638 participants, 202632 were successfully linked and followed through national cancer and death registries of Northern Ireland, Wales and England. Women with registrations of any of 19 pre-defined ICD-10 codes suggestive of tubo-ovarian cancer or notification of ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancer from hospital episode statistics or trial sites were identified. Copies of hospital and primary care notes were retrieved and reviewed by an independent outcomes review committee. National registration of site and cause of death as ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancer (C56/C57/C48) obtained up to three months after trial censorship was compared to that assigned by outcomes review (reference standard).Results: Outcome review was undertaken in 3110 women on whom notification was received between 2001 and 2014. Ovarian cancer was confirmed in 1324 of whom 1125 had a relevant cancer registration. Sensitivity and specificity of ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancer registration was 85.0%(1125/1324; 95%CI 83.7%-86.2%) and 94.0%(1679/1786; 95%CI93.2%-94.8%), respectively. Of 2041 death registrations reviewed, 681 were confirmed to have a tubo-ovarian cancer of whom 605 had relevant death registration. Sensitivity and specificity was 88.8%(605/681; 95%CI86.4%-91.2%) and 96.7%(1482/1533; 95%CI95.8%-97.6%%) respectively. When multiple electronic health record sources were considered, sensitivity for cancer site increased to 91.1%(1206/1324; 95%CI89.4%-92.5%) and for cause of death 94.0%(640/681; 95%CI91.9%-95.5%).Of 1232 with cancer registration, 8.7%(107/1232) were wrongly designated as ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancers by the registry and 4.0%(47/1172) of confirmed tubo-ovarian cancers were mis-registered. In 656 with death registrations, 7.8%(51/656) were wrongly assigned as ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancers whilst 6.2%(40/645) of confirmed tubo-ovarian cancer deaths were mis-registered.Conclusion: Follow-up of trial participants for tubo-ovarian cancer using national registry data will result in incomplete ascertainment particularly of site due in part to the latency of registration. This can be reduced by using other routinely collected data such as hospital episode statistics. Central adjudication by experts though resource intensive adds value by improving accuracy of diagnoses. Trial registration: ISRCTN22488978, date of trial registration: 6/4/2000

Background Chronic liver disease (CLD) is usually asymptomatic but earlier detection is critical to permit life-saving interventions for those at risk due to high alcohol consumption and increased body mass index (BMI). The aim of this study was to estimate the association between the Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) test and liver-related events (LRE) and its performance in predicting LRE in postmenopausal women with risk factors in a nested case-control study within the United Kingdom Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). Methods In a cohort of 95,126 we performed a case-control study measuring ELF in blinded samples from 173 participants with self-reported high alcohol use and / or BMI ≥25 kg/m2 comprising all 58 cases who developed LRE and 115 controls matched for age, alcohol and BMI who did not develop LRE during median follow-up of 8.5 years. Results Using Cox regression at an ELF threshold of 10.51 hazard ratios (HR) for LRE were 4.88 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.37–10.03) (unadjusted model) and 4.62 (95% CI 2.12–10.08) (adjusted for deprivation and self-reported hypertension, heart disease, hypercholesterolaemia and diabetes). At a threshold of 9.8 HR for LRE were 2.21 (95% CI 1.22–3.97) (unadjusted model) and 2.18 (95% CI 1.19–4.01) (adjusted). ELF was evaluated as a time dependent variable by generating time-dependent Cox models; HRs at an ELF threshold of 10.51 were 1.94 (95% CI 1.10–3.39) (unadjusted) and 2.05 (95% CI 1.16–3.64) (adjusted) and at a threshold of 9.8 HRs were 1.85 (95% CI 1.09–3.15) (unadjusted) and 1.80 (95% CI 1.04–3.13) (adjusted). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for recruitment ELF predicting LRE was 0.58 (95% CI 0.49–0.68), and for second subsequent ELF 0.61 (95% CI 0.52–0.71). Conclusion This study demonstrates the association between ELF and CLD in postmenopausal women with risk factors for liver disease, creating the opportunity to intervene to reduce liver-related mortality and morbidity. Although larger studies are required, these results demonstrate the potential of ELF as a prognostic tool in health checks in primary care. Trial registration This study is nested in UKCTOCS. UKCTOCS is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN22488978. Registered 06/04/2000.

ImportanceCholesterol content in high-density lipoprotein particles (HDL-C) is associated inversely with coronary heart disease (CHD), but findings from Mendelian randomization studies and randomized trials of HDL-C raising drugs have questioned whether this link is causal. However, these analyses do not exclude a causal role for specific HDL sub-fractions of different density, mobility, size and composition.ObjectiveTo determine whether sub-components of the HDL pathway exhibit differing relationships with CHD risk.DesignIn seven longitudinal studies, we used factor analysis to reduce 21 measures of HDL particle size and lipid content to a smaller number of factors representing different components of the HDL pathway. We constructed factor scores and modelled their associations on CHD risk in adjusted Cox regression analyses. We pooled results using random-effects meta-analysis.SettingSeven population-, individual-, occupational- or community-based longitudinal studies in the UK and Finland.Participants28,597 participants (49% female, mean age 59.6 years) contributed to the analysis.ExposuresSub-components of the HDL pathway, characterized by 21 measures of HDL size and lipid content based on nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy.Main OutcomesIncident fatal or non-fatal CHD.ResultsWe identified 4 HDL components with highly replicable across studies; 3 were indices of particle size/composition (extra-large (XL), large (L) and medium/small (MS)), and the other an index of triglycerides (TG) carried in HDL of all sizes. After up to 17 years of follow-up, 4179 incident CHD cases occurred. After adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, smoking, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, diabetes and LDL-C, higher levels of the XL and MS factors were linked to a reduced risk of CHD (hazard ratio per 1 standard deviation (SD) increase 0.88 [95% CI 0.85, 0.92] and 0.91 [0.87, 0.94]). In contrast, a SD increase in the level of the TG factor was associated with increased risk of CHD (1.10 [1.07, 1.14]).Conclusions and RelevanceWe found qualitative differences between sub-components of the HDL pathway and the risk of developing CHD. Discovery of the biological determinants of these components, possibly through genetic analysis, will facilitate selection of drug targets and inform trial design.Key PointsQuestionCan investigation of sub-components of the high-density lipoprotein (HDL) pathway, measured through nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, point to specific therapeutic targets for prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD)?FindingsUsing individual-level data from seven longitudinal studies including 28,597 participants and 4197 CHD events, we identified two components of the HDL pathway that were associated with reduced, and one that was associated with increased, risk of CHD.MeaningThese sub-components of the HDL pathway, if causally related to atherogenesis, offer a route to more precise therapeutic targets for prevention of CHD.

We present a quantitative study of the performance of two automatic methods for the early detection of ovarian cancer that can exploit longitudinal measurements of multiple biomarkers. The study is carried out for a subset of the data collected in the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). We use statistical analysis techniques, such as the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, for evaluating the performance of two techniques that aim at the classification of subjects as either healthy or suffering from the disease using time-series of multiple biomarkers as inputs. The first method relies on a Bayesian hierarchical model that establishes connections within a set of clinically interpretable parameters. The second technique is a purely discriminative method that employs a recurrent neural network (RNN) for the binary classification of the inputs. For the available dataset, the performance of the two detection schemes is similar (the area under ROC curve is 0.98 for the combination of three biomarkers) and the Bayesian approach has the advantage that its outputs (parameters estimates and their uncertainty) can be further analysed by a clinical expert.

Purpose: The TP53 tumor-suppressor gene is mutated in >95% of high-grade serous ovarian cancers. Detecting an autologous antibody response to TP53 that might improve early detection. Experimental Design: An immunoassay was developed to measure TP53 autoantibody in sera from 378 cases of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer and 944 age-matched healthy controls from the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom. Serial preclinical samples from cases and controls were also assayed from the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). Results: Using a cutoff value of 78 U/mL to achieve a specificity of 97.4%, TP53 autoantibody was elevated in 30% of 50 cases from MD Anderson, 21.3% of 108 cases from the Australian Ovarian Cancer Study, and 21% of 220 cases from the UKCTOCS. Among 164 cases with rising CA125 detected with the UKCTOCS risk of ovarian cancer algorithm (ROCA), 20.7% had elevated TP53 autoantibody. In cases missed by the ROCA, 16% of cases had elevated TP53 autoantibody. Of the 34 ovarian cancer cases detected with the ROCA, TP53 autoantibody titers were elevated 11.0 months before CA125. In the 9 cases missed by the ROCA, TP53 autoantibody was elevated 22.9 months before cancer diagnosis. Similar sensitivity was obtained using assays with specific mutant and wild-type TP53. Conclusions: TP53 autoantibody levels provide a biomarker with clinically significant lead time over elevation of CA125 or an elevated ROCA value. Quantitative assessment of autoantibodies in combination with CA125 holds promise for earlier detection of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer. Clin Cancer Res; 23(19); 5912–22. ©2017 AACR.

Background: Tubo-ovarian cancer (OC) continues to be the most lethal of all gynaecological cancers. Over half of women are diagnosed with late stage (III/IV) disease, which has a five-year survival rate of 11%. Socioeconomic status (SES) has been shown to have an impact on outcomes of several cancer types, including OC. This study aims to investigate any potential association between SES and stage at diagnosis of OC. Methods: Women from the non-screening arm of the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) with a confirmed diagnosis of OC prior to 01 January 2015 and an English index of multiple deprivation (IMD) score were eligible for the study. The association between IMD and OC stage (FIGO) was analysed using an ordinal logistic regression model adjusted for age at diagnosis and BMI. Results: Four-hundred and fifty seven women were eligible for inclusion in the primary analysis. The odds of being diagnosed with the higher dichotomization of stage (I vs. II/III/IV, I/II vs. III/IV, I/II/III vs. IV) was 1.29 (p = 0.017, 95% CI: 1.048&ndash, 1.592) per unit SD (standard deviation) increase in IMD. This translates to a 29% increase in odds of being diagnosed at the higher stage per each unit SD increase in IMD. Conclusion: Increased deprivation is consistently associated with a higher probability of being diagnosed with later stage OC.

Background An early detection tool for EOC was constructed from analysis of biomarker expression data from serum collected during the UKCTOCS. Methods This study included 49 EOC cases (19 Type I and 30 Type II) and 31 controls, representing 482 serial samples spanning seven years pre-diagnosis. A logit model was trained by analysis of dysregulation of expression data of four putative biomarkers, (CA125, phosphatidylcholine-sterol acyltransferase, vitamin K-dependent protein Z and C-reactive protein); by scoring the specificity associated with dysregulation from the baseline expression for each individual. Results The model is discriminatory, passes k-fold and leave-one-out cross-validations and was further validated in a Type I EOC set. Samples were analysed as a simulated annual screening programme, the algorithm diagnosed cases with >30% PPV 1–2 years pre-diagnosis. For Type II cases (~80% were HGS) the algorithm classified 64% at 1 year and 28% at 2 years tDx as severe. Conclusions The panel has the potential to diagnose EOC one-two years earlier than current diagnosis. This analysis provides a tangible worked example demonstrating the potential for development as a screening tool and scrutiny of its properties. Limits on interpretation imposed by the number of samples available are discussed.

Background: Various factors—including age, family history, inflammation, reproductive factors, and tubal ligation—modulate the risk of ovarian cancer. In this study, our aim was to establish whether women with, or at risk of developing, ovarian cancer have an imbalanced cervicovaginal microbiome. Methods: We did a case-control study in two sets of women aged 18–87 years in the Czech Republic, Germany, Italy, Norway, and the UK. The ovarian cancer set comprised women with epithelial ovarian cancer and controls (both healthy controls and those diagnosed with benign gynaecological conditions). The BRCA set comprised women with a BRCA1 mutation but without ovarian cancer and controls who were wild type for BRCA1 and BRCA2 (both healthy controls and those with benign gynaecological conditions). Cervicovaginal samples were gathered from all participants with the ThinPrep system and then underwent 16S rRNA gene sequencing. For each sample, we calculated the proportion of lactobacilli species (ie, Lactobacillus crispatus, Lactobacillus iners, Lactobacillus gasseri, and Lactobacillus jensenii), which are essential for the generation of a protective low vaginal pH, in the cervicovaginal microbiota. We grouped samples into those in which lactobacilli accounted for at least 50% of the species present (community type L) and those in which lactobacilli accounted for less than 50% of the species present (community type O). We assessed the adjusted association between BRCA1 status and ovarian cancer status and cervicovaginal microbiota community type, using a logistic regression model with a bias reduction method. Findings: Participants were recruited between Jan 2, 2016, and July 21, 2018. The ovarian cancer set (n=360) comprised 176 women with epithelial ovarian cancer, 115 healthy controls and 69 controls with benign gynaecological conditions. The BRCA set (n=220) included 109 women with BRCA1 mutations, 97 healthy controls wild type for BRCA1 and BRCA2 and 14 controls with a benign gynaecological condition wild type for BRCA1 and BRCA2. On the basis of two-dimensional density plots, receiver–operating characteristic curve analysis, and age thresholds used previously, we divided the cohort into those younger than 50 years and those aged 50 years or older. In the ovarian cancer set, women aged 50 years or older had a higher prevalence of community type O microbiota (81 [61%] of 133 ovarian cancer cases and 84 [59%] of 142 healthy controls) than those younger than 50 years (23 [53%] of 43 cases and 12 [29%] of 42 controls). In the ovarian cancer set, women younger than 50 years with ovarian cancer had a significantly higher prevalence of community type O microbiota than did age-matched controls under a logistic regression model with bias correction (odds ratio [OR] 2·80 [95% CI 1·17–6·94]; p=0·020). In the BRCA set, women with BRCA1 mutations younger than 50 years were also more likely to have community type O microbiota than age-matched controls (OR 2·79 [95% CI 1·25–6·68]; p=0·012), after adjustment for pregnancy (ever). This risk was increased further if more than one first-degree family member was affected by any cancer (OR 5·26 [95% CI 1·83–15·30]; p=0·0022). In both sets, we noted that the younger the participants, the stronger the association between community type O microbiota and ovarian cancer or BRCA1 mutation status (eg, OR for community type O for cases aged

Background: Chronic liver disease (CLD) is usually asymptomatic but earlier detection is critical to permit life-saving interventions for those at risk due to high alcohol consumption and increased body mass index (BMI). We evaluated performance of the Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) test in predicting CLD in postmenopausal women with risk factors in a nested case control study within the United Kingdom Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). Methods: ELF was measured in blinded samples from 58 participants with selfreported high alcohol use and/or BMI ≥25kg/m2 who developed liver-related events (LRE) (cases), and in 115 controls matched for age, alcohol and BMI who did not develop LRE during median follow-up of 8*5 years. Findings: Using Cox regression at an ELF threshold of 9*8 hazard ratio (HR) for LRE was 2*21 (unadjusted model) and 2*18 (adjusted for deprivation and selfreported hypertension, heart disease, hypercholesterolaemia or diabetes). At a threshold of 10*51, HR was 4*88 (unadjusted) and 4*62 (adjusted). ELF was evaluated as a time dependent variable by generating timedependent Cox models; HRs at an ELF threshold of 9*8 were 1*85 (unadjusted) and 1*80 (adjusted), and at a threshold of 10*51 HRs were 1*94 (unadjusted) and 2*05 (adjusted). Interpretation: This study demonstrates that the ELF test predicts complications of CLD in postmenopausal women with risk factors, creating the opportunity to intervene to reduce liver-related mortality and morbidity. Although larger studies are required, these results demonstrate the possible role for ELF as a prognostic tool in health checks in primary care. Funding Statement: No external funding for this nested study. The trial, UKCTOCS, was funded by Medical Research Council (G9901012 and G0801228), Cancer Research UK (C1479/A2884), and the UK Department of Health, with additional support from The Eve Appeal. UM and WMR are supported by the NIHR University College London Hospitals (UCLH) Biomedical Research Centre. SA was funded by Abcodia Pvt Ltd. Declaration of Interests: UM has stocks awarded to her by UCL in Abcodia Pvt. Ltd. WMR is an inventor of the ELF test and has received fees from Siemens Healthineers for lecturing, travel, and consulting and research support. All the other authors declare no conflict of interest. Ethics Approval Statement: The current study was approved by the National Research Ethics Service (NRES) Committee London - Bentham (Ref: 05/Q0505/57) on 10th August 2011.