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The 2014 chikungunya outbreak in the Dominican Republic resulted in intense local transmission, with high postoutbreak seroprevalence. The resulting population immunity will likely minimize risk for another large outbreak through 2035, but changes in population behavior or environmental conditions or emergence of different virus strains could lead to increased transmission.

Summary: Background: Individual immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 are well-studied, while the combined effect of these responses on population-level immune dynamics remains poorly understood. Given the key role of population immunity on pathogen transmission, delineation of the factors that drive population immune evolution has critical public health implications. Methods: We enrolled individuals 5 years and older selected using a multistage cluster survey approach in the Northwest and Southeast of the Dominican Republic. Paired blood samples were collected mid-pandemic (Aug 2021) and late pandemic (Nov 2022). We measured serum pan-immunoglobulin antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) and random forest models were used to analyze the relationship between changes in antibody levels and various predictor variables. Principal component analysis and partial dependence plots further explored the relationships between predictors and antibody changes. Findings: We found a transformation in the distribution of antibody levels from an irregular to a normalized single peak Gaussian distribution that was driven by titre-dependent boosting. This led to the convergence of antibody levels around a common immune setpoint, irrespective of baseline titres and vaccination profile. Interpretation: Our results suggest that titre-dependent kinetics driven by widespread transmission direct the evolution of population immunity in a consistent manner. These findings have implications for targeted vaccination strategies and improved modeling of future transmission, providing a preliminary blueprint for understanding population immune dynamics that could guide public health and vaccine policy for SARS-CoV-2 and potentially other pathogens. Funding: The study was primarily funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention grant U01GH002238 (EN). Salary support was provided by Wellcome Trust grant 206250/Z/17/Z (AK) and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Investigator grant APP1158469 (CLL).

Abstract Background Soil transmitted helminth (STH) infections are estimated to impact 24% of the world’s population and are responsible for chronic and debilitating morbidity. Disadvantaged communities are among the worst affected and are further marginalized as infection prevalence fuels the poverty cycle. Ambitious targets have been set to eliminate STH infections, but accurate epidemiological data will be required to inform appropriate interventions. This paper details the protocol for an analysis that aims to produce spatial prediction mapping of STH prevalence in the Western Pacific Region (WPR). Methods The protocol follows the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocol (PRISMA-P) guidelines. The study design will combine the principles of systematic review, meta-analysis, and geospatial analysis. Systematic searches will be undertaken in PubMed, Scopus, ProQuest, Embase, and Web of Science for studies undertaken post 2000, to identify surveys that enable the prevalence of human STH infection within the WPR to be calculated. Covariate data for multivariable analysis will be obtained from publicly accessible sources. Survey data will be geolocated, and STH prevalence and covariates will be linked to produce a spatially referenced dataset for analysis. Bayesian model-based geostatistics will be used to generate spatially continuous estimates of STH prevalence mapped to a resolution of 1 km2. A separate geospatial model will be constructed for each STH species. Predictions of prevalence will be made for unsampled locations and maps will be overlaid for each STH species to obtain co-endemicity maps. Discussion This protocol facilitates study replication and may be applied to other infectious diseases or alternate geographies. Results of the subsequent analysis will identify geographies with high STH prevalence’s and can be used to inform resource allocation in combating this neglected tropical disease. Trial registration Open Science Framework: osf.io/qmxcj.

Objective This study investigates the role of trust in shaping COVID-19 vaccine acceptance in the Dominican Republic (DR) during the COVID-19 pandemic.Design Cross-sectional household survey.Setting Randomly selected households across 134 clusters in the DR, from 30 June 2021 to 12 October 2021.Participants 5999 participants ≥16 years of age were enrolled.Outcome measures COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy (CVH) data were collected from participants ≥16 years of age and analysed as both an ordinal and binary variable.Results Overall, CVH was low (5.2% (95% CI 4.6% to 5.8%)), but more common among younger individuals, women and individuals of Mestizo ethnicity. Higher trust in local government, national government, scientists and local doctors (considered official sources) was associated with lower odds of CVH (OR 0.89 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.88), 0.89 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.98), 0.87 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.94) and 0.70 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.80), respectively). Higher trust in religious leaders, social media and traditional media (considered unofficial sources) was associated with higher odds of CVH, with respective ORs of 1.32 (95% CI 1.18 to 1.47), 1.30 (95% CI 1.19 to 1.41) and 1.08 (95% CI 0.97 to 1.22).Conclusion We report findings on CVH from a national household survey in the DR and identify overall low rates of CVH but marked heterogeneity by age, gender and ethnicity. Trust in unofficial versus official sources of information is associated with increased CVH. These findings highlight and quantify the importance of trust as a key parameter when considering public health communication strategies.

Summary: Background: The Philippines reports a high prevalence of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections despite the implementation of nationwide mass drug administration since 2006. The spatial variation of STH infections in the Philippines was last described using the 2005–2007 national STH and schistosomiasis survey. This study aimed to identify sociodemographic and environmental factors that drive STH transmission and predict high-risk areas in the Philippines. Methods: Epidemiological data on STH for students aged 5–16 years were obtained from the 2015 Philippines National Prevalence survey, while environmental data were extracted from satellite images and publicly available sources. Model-based geostatistics, implemented in a Bayesian framework, was used to identify sociodemographic and environmental correlates and predict high-risk areas for STH across the Philippines. The best-fitting model with the lowest deviance information criterion (DIC) was used to interpret the findings of the model and predict STH infection risk for the entire country. Risk maps were developed for each STH infection using the posterior means derived from the model. Findings: The prevalence of Ascaris lumbricoides (20.0%) and Trichuris trichiura (29.3%) was higher in the Visayas Island than in the Luzon and Mindanao Islands. Hookworm prevalence was highest in Mindanao Island (1.3%). Risk of A. lumbricoides was positively associated with males (odds ratio [OR]: 1.197; 97.5% Credible Interval [CrI]: 1.114, 1.286) and temperature (OR: 1.148; 97.5% CrI: 1.033, 1.291), while normalized difference vegetation index (OR: 0.354; 97.5% CrI: 0.138, 0.930) and soil pH (OR: 0.606; 97.5% CrI: 0.338, 0.949) were negatively associated with the transmission. T. trichiura risk was positively associated with males (OR: 1.261; 97.5% CrI: 1.173, 1.341), temperature (OR: 1.153; 97.5% CrI: 1.001, 1.301), and rainfall (OR: 1.004; 97.5% CrI: 1.011, 1.069). Hookworm risk was positively associated with males (OR: 2.142; 97.5% CrI: 1.537, 2.998), while children aged ≤12 years (OR: 0.435; 97.5% CrI: 0.252, 0.753) had a negative association with risk compared to those over 12 years. Focal areas of high risk were identified for A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura in the Visayas Island, and hookworm in the Mindanao Island. Interpretation: The spatial distribution of all three STH infections has considerably decreased since a previous national risk-mapping exercise. The high-risk areas identified in the study can be used to strategically target deworming and health education activities to further reduce the burden of STH and support progress toward elimination. Funding: The Australian Centre for the Control and Elimination of Neglected Tropical Diseases and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Incidence of COVID-19 has been associated with sociodemographic factors. We investigated variations in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence at sub-national levels in the Dominican Republic and assessed potential factors influencing variation in regional-level seroprevalence. Data were collected in a three-stage cross-sectional national serosurvey from June to October 2021. Seroprevalence of antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (anti-S) was estimated and adjusted for selection probability, age, and sex. Multilevel logistic regression was used to estimate the effect of covariates on seropositivity for anti-S and correlates of 80% protection (PT80) against symptomatic infection for the ancestral and Delta strains. A total of 6683 participants from 134 clusters in all 10 regions were enrolled. Anti-S, PT80 for the ancestral and Delta strains odds ratio varied across regions, Enriquillo presented significant higher odds for all outcomes compared with Yuma. Compared to being unvaccinated, receiving ≥2 doses of COVID-19 vaccine was associated with a significantly higher odds of anti-S positivity (OR 85.94, [10.95–674.33]) and PT80 for the ancestral (OR 4.78, [2.15–10.62]) and Delta strains (OR 3.08, [1.57–9.65]) nationally and also for each region. Our results can help inform regional-level public health response, such as strategies to increase vaccination coverage in areas with low population immunity against currently circulating strains.

Summary: Background: Population-level SARS-CoV-2 immunological protection is poorly understood but can guide vaccination and non-pharmaceutical intervention priorities. Our objective was to characterise cumulative infections and immunological protection in the Dominican Republic. Methods: Household members ≥5 years were enrolled in a three-stage national household cluster serosurvey in the Dominican Republic. We measured pan-immunoglobulin antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 spike (anti-S) and nucleocapsid glycoproteins, and pseudovirus neutralising activity against the ancestral and B.1.617.2 (Delta) strains. Seroprevalence and cumulative prior infections were weighted and adjusted for assay performance and seroreversion. Binary classification machine learning methods and pseudovirus neutralising correlates of protection were used to estimate 50% and 80% protection against symptomatic infection. Findings: Between 30 Jun and 12 Oct 2021 we enrolled 6683 individuals from 3832 households. We estimate that 85.0% (CI 82.1–88.0) of the ≥5 years population had been immunologically exposed and 77.5% (CI 71.3–83) had been previously infected. Protective immunity sufficient to provide at least 50% protection against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection was estimated in 78.1% (CI 74.3–82) and 66.3% (CI 62.8–70) of the population for the ancestral and Delta strains respectively. Younger (5–14 years, OR 0.47 [CI 0.36–0.61]) and older (≥75-years, 0.40 [CI 0.28–0.56]) age, working outdoors (0.53 [0.39–0.73]), smoking (0.66 [0.52–0.84]), urban setting (1.30 [1.14–1.49]), and three vs no vaccine doses (18.41 [10.69–35.04]) were associated with 50% protection against the ancestral strain. Interpretation: Cumulative infections substantially exceeded prior estimates and overall immunological exposure was high. After controlling for confounders, markedly lower immunological protection was observed to the ancestral and Delta strains across certain subgroups, findings that can guide public health interventions and may be generalisable to other settings and viral strains. Funding: This study was funded by the US CDC.

Introduction The increase in international travel brought about by globalisation has enabled the rapid spread of emerging pathogens with epidemic and pandemic potential. While travel connectivity-based assessments may help understand patterns of travel network-mediated epidemics, such approaches are rarely carried out in sufficient detail for Oceania where air travel is the dominant method of transportation between countries.Design Travel data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Stats NZ and the United Nations World Tourism Organization websites were used to calculate travel volumes in 2018 within Oceania and between Oceania and the rest of the world. The Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index (IDVI) was incorporated into the analysis as an indicator of each country’s capacity to contain an outbreak. Travel networks were developed to assess the spread of infectious diseases (1) into and from Oceania, (2) within Oceania and (3) between each of the Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs) and their most connected countries.Results Oceania was highly connected to countries in Asia, Europe and North America. Australia, New Zealand and several PICTs were highly connected to the USA and the UK (least vulnerable countries for outbreaks based on the IDVI), and to China (intermediate low vulnerable country). High variability was also observed between the PICTs in the geographical distribution of their international connections. The PICTs with the highest number of international connections were Fiji, French Polynesia, Guam and Papua New Guinea.Conclusion Travel connectivity assessments may help to accurately stratify the risk of infectious disease importation and outbreaks in countries depending on disease transmission in other parts of the world. This information is essential to track future requirements for scaling up and targeting outbreak surveillance and control strategies in Oceania.

Under the Global Program to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) American Samoa conducted seven rounds of mass drug administration (MDA) between 2000 and 2006. Subsequently, the territory passed the WHO recommended school-based transmission assessment survey (TAS) in 2011/2012 (TAS-1) and 2015 (TAS-2) but failed in 2016, when both TAS-3 and a community survey found LF antigen prevalence above what it had been in previous surveys. This study aimed to identify potential environmental drivers of LF to refine future surveillance efforts to detect re-emergence and recurrence. Data on five LF infection markers: antigen, Wb123, Bm14 and Bm33 antibodies and microfilaraemia, were obtained from a population-wide serosurvey conducted in American Samoa in 2016. Spatially explicit data on environmental factors were derived from freely available sources. Separate multivariable Poisson regression models were developed for each infection marker to assess and quantify the associations between LF infection markers and environmental variables. Rangeland, tree cover and urban cover were consistently associated with a higher seroprevalence of LF-infection markers, but to varying magnitudes between landcover classes. High slope gradient, population density and crop cover had a negative association with the seroprevalence of LF infection markers. No association between rainfall and LF infection markers was detected, potentially due to the limited variation in rainfall across the island. This study demonstrated that seroprevalence of LF infection markers were more consistently associated with topographical environmental variables, such as gradient of the slope, rather than climatic variables, such as rainfall. These results provide the initial groundwork to support the detection of areas where LF transmission is more likely to occur, and inform LF elimination efforts through better understanding of the environmental drivers.

Despite the recent sporadic reports of angiostrongyliasis in humans, dogs and wildlife in eastern Australia there has been no systematic study to explore the epidemiology of Angiostrongylus spp. in definitive and intermediate hosts in the region. Little is known about the epidemiology of Angiostrongylus species in the definitive host in southeast Queensland, since the only survey conducted in this region was performed in the late 1960s. In this study, free-living populations of Rattus spp. were sampled and examined for the presence of adult and larval Angiostrongylus in the lungs, and of larvae in faeces. The prevalence of infection with Angiostrongylus spp. was 16.5% in Rattus spp. trapped in urban Brisbane and surrounds. This prevalence is much higher than estimates of earlier studies. This highlights the possible risk of zoonotic infection in children, dogs and wildlife in this region and indicates the necessity for public awareness as well as more detailed epidemiological studies on this parasite in eastern Australia.