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Abstract Background Indonesia implemented one of the world’s largest single-payer national health insurance schemes (the Jaminan Kesehatan Nasional or JKN) in 2014. This study aims to assess the incidence of catastrophic health spending (CHS) and its determinants and trends between 2018 and 2019 by which time JKN enrolment coverage exceeded 80%. Methods This study analysed data collected from a two-round cross-sectional household survey conducted in ten provinces of Indonesia in February–April 2018 and August–October 2019. The incidence of CHS was defined as the proportion of households with out-of-pocket (OOP) health spending exceeding 10% of household consumption expenditure. Chi-squared tests were used to compare the incidences of CHS across subgroups for each household characteristic. Logistic regression models were used to investigate factors associated with incurring CHS and the trend over time. Sensitivity analyses assessing the incidence of CHS based on a higher threshold of 25% of total household expenditure were conducted. Results The overall incidence of CHS at the 10% threshold fell from 7.9% to 2018 to 4.4% in 2019. The logistic regression models showed that households with JKN membership experienced significantly lower incidence of CHS compared to households without insurance coverage in both years. The poorest households were more likely to incur CHS compared to households in other wealth quintiles. Other predictors of incurring CHS included living in rural areas and visiting private health facilities. Conclusions This study demonstrated that the overall incidence of CHS decreased in Indonesia between 2018 and 2019. OOP payments for health care and the risk of CHS still loom high among JKN members and among the lowest income households. More needs to be done to further contain OOP payments and further research is needed to investigate whether CHS pushes households below the poverty line.

ABSTRACTThe Health Intervention and Technology Assessment Program (HITAP) was established in 2007. This article highlights 15 lessons from over 15 years of experience, noting five achievements about what HITAP has done well, five areas that it is currently working on, and five aims for work in the future. HITAP built capacity for HTA and linked research to policy and practice in Thailand. With collaborators from academic and policy spheres, HITAP has mobilized regional and global support, and developed global public goods to enhance the field of HTA. HITAP’s semi-autonomous structure has facilitated these changes, though they have not been without their challenges. HITAP aims to continue its work on HTA for public health interventions and disinvestments, effectively engaging with stakeholders and strategically managing its human resources. Moving forward, HITAP will develop and update global public goods on HTA, work on emerging topics such as early HTA, address issues in digital health, real-world evidence and equity, support HTA development globally, particularly in low-income settings, and seek to engage more effectively with the public. HITAP seeks to learn from its experience and invest in the areas identified so that it can grow sustainably. Its journey may be relevant to other countries and institutions that are interested in developing HTA programs.

Abstract Background Many countries implementing pro-poor reforms to expand subsidized health care, especially for the poor, recognize that high-quality healthcare, and not just access alone, is necessary to meet the Sustainable Development Goals. As the poor are more likely to use low quality health services, measures to improve access to health care need to emphasise quality as the cornerstone to achieving equity goals. Current methods to evaluate health systems financing equity fail to take into account measures of quality. This paper aims to provide a worked example of how to adapt a popular quantitative approach, Benefit Incidence Analysis (BIA), to incorporate a quality weighting into the computation of public subsidies for health care. Methods We used a dataset consisting of a sample of households surveyed in 10 provinces of Indonesia in early-2018. In parallel, a survey of public health facilities was conducted in the same geographical areas, and information about health facility infrastructure and basic equipment was collected. In each facility, an index of service readiness was computed as a measure of quality. Individuals who reported visiting a primary health care facility in the month before the interview were matched to their chosen facility. Standard BIA and an extended BIA that adjusts for service quality were conducted. Results Quality scores were relatively high across all facilities, with an average of 82%. Scores for basic equipment were highest, with an average score of 99% compared to essential medicines with an average score of 60%. Our findings from the quality-weighted BIA show that the distribution of subsidies for public primary health care facilities became less ‘pro-poor’ while private clinics became more ‘pro-rich’ after accounting for quality of care. Overall the distribution of subsidies became significantly pro-rich (CI = 0.037). Conclusions Routine collection of quality indicators that can be linked to individuals is needed to enable a comprehensive understanding of individuals’ pathways of care. From a policy perspective, accounting for quality of care in health financing assessment is crucial in a context where quality of care is a nationwide issue. In such a context, any health financing performance assessment is likely to be biased if quality is not accounted for.

Advanced gynecologic cancers have historically lacked effective treatment options. Recently, immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration for the treatment of cervical cancer and endometrial cancer, offering durable responses for some patients. In addition, many immunotherapy strategies are under investigation for the treatment of earlier stages of disease or in other gynecologic cancers, such as ovarian cancer and rare gynecologic tumors. While the integration of ICIs into the standard of care has improved outcomes for patients, their use requires a nuanced understanding of biomarker testing, treatment selection, patient selection, response evaluation and surveillance, and patient quality of life considerations, among other topics. To address this need for guidance, the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer (SITC) convened a multidisciplinary panel of experts to develop a clinical practice guideline. The Expert Panel drew on the published literature as well as their own clinical experience to develop evidence- and consensus-based recommendations to provide guidance to cancer care professionals treating patients with gynecologic cancer.

Melanomas from gynecologic sites (MOGS) are rare and have poor survival. MicroRNAs (miRs) regulate gene expression and are dysregulated in cancer. We hypothesized that MOGS would display unique miR and mRNA expression profiles. The miR and mRNA expression profile in RNA from formalin fixed, paraffin embedded vaginal melanomas (relative to vaginal mucosa) and vulvar melanomas (relative to cutaneous melanoma) were measured with the Nanostring Human miRNA assay and Tumor Signaling mRNA assay. Differential patterns of expression were identified for 21 miRs in vaginal and 47 miRs in vulvar melanoma (fold change >2, p

Summary: Background: In 2014, Indonesia launched a single payer national health insurance scheme with the aim of covering the entire population by 2024. The objective of this paper is to assess the equity with which contributions to the health financing system were distributed in Indonesia over 2015 – 2019. Methods: This study is a secondary analysis of nationally representative data from the National Socioeconomic Survey of Indonesia (2015 – 2019). The relative progressivity of each health financing source and overall health financing was determined using a summary score, the Kakwani index. Findings: Around a third of health financing was sourced from out-of-pocket (OOP) payments each year, with direct taxes, indirect taxes and social health insurance (SHI) each taking up 15 – 20%. Direct taxes and OOP payments were progressive sources of health financing, and indirect tax payments regressive, for all of 2015 – 2019. SHI contributions were regressive except in 2017 and 2018. The overall health financing system was progressive from 2015 to 2018, but this declined year by year and became mildly regressive in 2019. Interpretation: The declining progressivity of the overall health financing system between 2015 – 2019 suggests that Indonesia still has a way to go in developing a fair and equitable health financing system that ensures the poor are financially protected. Funding: This study is supported through the Health Systems Research Initiative in the UK, and is jointly funded by the Department of International Development, the Economic and Social Research Council, the Medical Research Council and the Wellcome Trust.

Abstract Background Antimicrobial resistance (AMR), recognised as a serious and growing threat to global health, is promoted by multiple drivers, including antibiotic use in the livestock sector. Thus, understanding factors influencing antibiotic use in livestock production is essential to the design and implementation of effective interventions to reduce AMR. This qualitative study aimed to explore the experiences and views of the key actors associated with the use of antibiotics for pig farming in Thailand, from local farmers to officers in central government institutions. Methods A total of 31 in-depth interviews were conducted with different categories of actors: pig farmers (n = 13), drug retailers (n = 5), veterinarians (n = 7), government officers (n = 3) and representatives of animal and human health associations (n = 2). Themes emerging from the interviews were identified and explored using thematic analysis. In addition, direct observations were conducted in the pig farms. Results The findings highlight the multi-faceted nature of the views and practices that may contribute to misuse or overuse of antibiotics in the study locations, including misconceptions about the nature of antibiotics and AMR (particularly among smallholders), lack of facilities and financial means to establish an antibiotic-free farm, lack of sufficient training on AMR and antibiotic prescribing for veterinarians, the profit motive of pharmaceutical companies and their ties to farm consultants, and lack of sufficient regulatory oversight. Conclusions Our study indicates a clear need to improve antibiotic use for pig production in Thailand. Farmers need better access to veterinary services and reliable information about animal health needs and antibiotics. Innovative investments in biosecurity could improve farm management and decrease reliance on antibiotics, although the cost of these interventions should be low to ensure wide uptake in the livestock sector. Lastly, further development of professional training and clinical guidelines, and the establishment of a code of conduct, would help improve antibiotic dispensing practices.

Chemotherapy has been used to inhibit cancer growth for decades, but emerging evidence shows it can affect the tumor stroma, unintentionally promoting cancer malignancy. After treatment of primary tumors, remaining drugs drain via lymphatics. Though all drugs interact with the lymphatics, we know little of their impact on them. Here, we show a previously unknown effect of platinums, a widely used class of chemotherapeutics, to directly induce systemic lymphangiogenesis and activation. These changes are dose-dependent, long-lasting, and occur in healthy and cancerous tissue in multiple mouse models of breast cancer. We found similar effects in human ovarian and breast cancer patients whose treatment regimens included platinums. Carboplatin treatment of healthy mice prior to mammary tumor inoculation increased cancer metastasis as compared to no pre-treatment. These platinum-induced phenomena could be blocked by VEGFR3 inhibition. These findings have implications for cancer patients receiving platinums and may support the inclusion of anti-VEGFR3 therapy into treatment regimens or differential design of treatment regimens to alter these potential effects.

Pleomorphic adenoma of the breast is a rare, salivary-type tumor which can be misdiagnosed as invasive ductal carcinoma due to the morphologic and immunophenotypic overlap between these two entities. We report a pleomorphic adenoma of the breast initially misdiagnosed as estrogen receptor (ER)-positive low-grade invasive ductal carcinoma, a classification error which prompted genomic risk stratification with Oncotype Dx testing. This produced a high-risk recurrence score suggesting possible chemotherapeutic benefit. The patient was therefore scheduled to receive adjuvant chemotherapy following lumpectomy. However, fortunately this plan was halted when the final diagnosis of pleomorphic adenoma was rendered on the resection specimen. This is the only reported case of genomic risk stratification being performed on a salivary-type breast tumor in the literature, and it demonstrates the clinical implications of this misdiagnosis.

BackgroundRising global concern about antimicrobial resistance has drawn attention to the use of antibiotics in livestock. Understanding the current usage of antibiotics in these animals is essential for effective interventions on the optimisation of antibiotic use. However, to date few studies have been conducted in low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to explore the use of antibiotics and estimate the total amount of antibiotics used in pig production in Thailand.MethodsThis was a mixed-methods study including a cross-sectional questionnaire-based survey of 84 pig farmers, secondary analysis of data from a survey of 31 feed mills to estimate the amount of antibiotics mixed in pig feed and interviews with five veterinarians involved in the feed mill industry to gain an understanding of medicated feed production.FindingsHalf of the farmers reported using antibiotics for disease prevention. Use was significantly associated with farmers’ experience in raising pigs, farm income, having received advice on animal health and belonging to a farm cooperative. The estimated total amount of active ingredients mixed into medicated feed for pigs for the whole country was 843 tonnes in 2017. Amoxicillin was the most commonly used antibiotic reported by both pig farms and feed mills. The use of Critically Important Antimicrobials including colistin was common, with one-third of farmers reporting their use as oral or as injectable medication, and accounting for nearly two-thirds of antibiotics contained in medicated feed.ConclusionA majority of antibiotics used in Thai pig farms belonged to the category of Critically Important Antimicrobials. Progressive restriction in the use of antibiotics in pigs is recommended through using prescriptions to control the distribution of certain antibiotics. The government should strengthen veterinary services to improve access of farmers to animal health advice and explore alternative interventions.

Abstract Background Many low and middle income countries are implementing reforms to support Universal Health Coverage (UHC). Perhaps one of the most ambitious examples of this is Indonesia’s national health scheme known as the JKN which is designed to make health care available to its entire population of 255 million by end of 2019. If successful, the JKN will be the biggest single payer system in the world. While Indonesia has made steady progress, around a third of its population remains without cover and out of pocket payments for health are widespread even among JKN members. To help close these gaps, especially among the poor, the Indonesian government is currently implementing a set of UHC policy reforms that include the integration of remaining government insurance schemes into the JKN, expansion of provider networks, restructuring of provider payments systems, accreditation of all contracted health facilities and a range of demand side initiatives to increase insurance uptake, especially in the informal sector. This study evaluates the equity impact of this latest set of UHC reforms. Methods Using a before and after design, we will evaluate the combined effects of the national UHC reforms at baseline (early 2018) and target of JKN full implementation (end 2019) on: progressivity of the health care financing system; pro-poorness of the health care delivery system; levels of catastrophic and impoverishing health expenditure; and self-reported health outcomes. In-depth interviews with stakeholders to document the context and the process of implementing these reforms, will also be undertaken. Discussion As countries like Indonesia focus on increasing coverage, it is critically important to ensure that the poor and vulnerable - who are often the most difficult to reach – are not excluded. The results of this study will not only help track Indonesia’s progress to universalism but also reveal what the UHC-reforms mean to the poor.

Abstract Background We provide a historical analysis of the evolution of the field of health policy and systems research (HPSR) since 1996. In the mid-1990s, three main challenges affected HPSR, namely (1) fragmentation and lack of a single agreed definition of the field; (2) ongoing dominance of biomedical and clinical research; and (3) lack of demand for HPSR. Cross-cutting all these challenges was the problem of relatively limited capacity to undertake high quality HPSR. Our discussion analyses how these problems were addressed so as to facilitate growth and enhanced recognition of the field. Discussion HPSR has benefitted significantly from increased recognition of the importance of strong health systems to health outcomes, particularly those linked to the Millennium Development Goals. In addition to this, some of the challenges described above have been addressed through (1) sustained advocacy for the importance of HPSR, (2) efforts to clarify the content and focus of the field, and (3) growing appreciation of and efforts to engage health practitioners and policy-makers in HPSR. While advocacy for the field of HPSR was initially fragmented, since the late 1990s there has been a consistent flow of focusing events and publications that have served to enhance the profile and understanding of the field. There have also been multiple efforts to establish greater coherence within the field, for example, interrogating the distinctions between health services research and health systems research, and how critical the “P” for policy is to HPSR. Finally, HPSR has developed at the same time as growing interest in evidence-informed policy and, more recently, implementation science, which have served to underscore the relevance and utility of HPSR to policy- and decision-makers. Conclusions During the past two decades, the field of HPSR has developed significantly, leading to enhanced clarity about its purpose, activity levels and utility. Several challenges remain that will need to be addressed in the decades ahead.

Abstract Background Monitoring financial protection against catastrophic health expenditures is important to understand how health financing arrangements in a country protect its population against high costs associated with accessing health services. While catastrophic health expenditures are generally defined to be when household expenditures for health exceed a given threshold of household resources, there is no gold standard with several methods applied to define the threshold and household resources. These different approaches to constructing the indicator might give different pictures of a country’s progress towards financial protection. In order for monitoring to effectively provide policy insight, it is critical to understand the sensitivity of measurement to these choices. Methods This paper examines the impact of varying two methodological choices by analysing household expenditure data from a sample of 47 countries. We assess sensitivity of cross-country comparisons to a range of thresholds by testing for restricted dominance. We further assess sensitivity of comparisons to different methods for defining household resources (i.e. total expenditure, non-food expenditure and non-subsistence expenditure) by conducting correlation tests of country rankings. Results We found country rankings are robust to the choice of threshold in a tenth to a quarter of comparisons within the 5–85% threshold range and this increases to half of comparisons if the threshold is restricted to 5–40%, following those commonly used in the literature. Furthermore, correlations of country rankings using different methods to define household resources were moderate to high; thus, this choice makes less difference from a measurement perspective than from an ethical perspective as different definitions of available household resources reflect varying concerns for equity. Conclusions Interpreting comparisons from global monitoring based on a single threshold should be done with caution as these may not provide reliable insight into relative country progress. We therefore recommend financial protection against catastrophic health expenditures be measured across a range of thresholds using a catastrophic incidence curve as shown in this paper. We further recommend evaluating financial protection in relation to a country’s health financing system arrangements in order to better understand the extent of protection and better inform future policy changes.

Abstract Background Gatekeeping involves a generalist doctor who controls patients’ access to specialist care, and has been discussed as an important policy option to rebalance the primary care and hospital sectors in low- and middle-income countries, despite thin evidence. A gatekeeping pilot in a Chinese rural setting launched in 2013 has offered an opportunity to study the functioning of gatekeeping under such conditions. Methods In this qualitative study within a mixed-method evaluation of the gatekeeping pilot, we developed an innovative systems analysis method, combining the World Health Organisation categorisation of health system building blocks, the “Framework” approach of policy analysis and causal loop analysis. We conducted in-depth interviews with 20 stakeholders from 4 groups (patients, doctors, health facility managers and government administrators) in the pilot area over two years. Based on information extracted from the interviews, we drew a causal loop diagram which highlighted the feedback loops within the system that had self-reinforcing or self-balancing characteristics, and used the diagram to examine systematically the mechanisms of intended and actual functioning of gatekeeping and analyse the systems level challenges that affected the effectiveness of gatekeeping. Results Had the gatekeeping pilot programme worked as intended, it would incentivize both providers and patients to increase service utilization at primary care level, as well as establish and enhance two reinforcing feedback loops to shift balance towards primary care. However, a performance-based salary policy undermined the motivation for clinical primary care. Furthermore, the primary care providers suffered from three reinforcing feedback loops (related to primary care capacity, human resource sustainability, patients’ faith) that trapped primary care development in vicious cycles. At the interface between hospitals and primary care providers, there were also feedback loops exacerbating the existing hospital dominance. These feedback loops were intensified by the unintended consequences of concurrent policies (restrictions on technologies and medicines) and delayed reform in hospitals. Furthermore, the gatekeeping policy itself faced resistance to further development, due to the prevailing ineffective and ritualistic nature of gatekeeping, which formed a balancing loop. Conclusions The study shows that the intended benefits of gatekeeping were illusionary largely due to weak and worsening primary care conditions, and delay, ineffectiveness or unintended consequences of several other ongoing reforms. One particularly dangerous development of the system, which deserves urgent attention, is the harming of the professional prospects of primary care doctors. Our findings highlight the need for coordination and prioritization in designing policies related to primary care and managing changes with multiple on-going reforms. The approach used here facilitates comprehensive study of intended and actual mechanisms, and demonstrates the challenges of a complex health system intervention in a dynamic environment.

Summary: Background: Tracking aid flows helps to hold donors accountable and to compare the allocation of resources in relation to health need. With the use of data reported by donors in 2015, we provided estimates of official development assistance and grants from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (collectively termed ODA+) to reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health for 2013 and complete trends in reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health support for the period 2003–13. Methods: We coded and analysed financial disbursements to reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health to all recipient countries from all donors reporting to the creditor reporting system database for the year 2013. We also revisited disbursement records for the years 2003–08 and coded disbursements relating to reproductive and sexual health activities resulting in the Countdown dataset for 2003–13. We matched this dataset to the 2015 creditor reporting system dataset and coded any unmatched creditor reporting system records. We analysed trends in ODA+ to reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health for the period 2003–13, trends in donor contributions, disbursements to recipient countries, and targeting to need. Findings: Total ODA+ to reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health reached nearly US$14 billion in 2013, of which 48% supported child health ($6·8 billion), 34% supported reproductive and sexual health ($4·7 billion), and 18% maternal and newborn health ($2·5 billion). ODA+ to reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health increased by 225% in real terms over the period 2003–13. Child health received the most substantial increase in funding since 2003 (286%), followed by reproductive and sexual health (194%), and maternal and newborn health (164%). In 2013, bilateral donors disbursed 59% of all ODA+ to reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health, followed by global health initiatives (23%), and multilateral agencies (13%). Targeting of ODA+ to reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health to countries with the greatest health need seems to have improved over time. Interpretation: The increase in reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health funding over the period 2003–13 is encouraging. Further increases in funding will be needed to accelerate maternal mortality reduction while keeping a high level of investment in sexual and reproductive health and in child health. Funding: Subgrant OPP1058954 from the US Fund for UNICEF under their Countdown to 2015 for Maternal, Newborn and Child Survival Grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BACKGROUND: Despite much success in reducing the burden of malaria in Vietnam, pockets of malaria persist and eliminating them remains an important development goal. In central Vietnam, insecticide-treated hammocks have recently been introduced to help counter the disease in the highly forested, mountainous areas, where other measures have so far been unsuccessful. This study assesses the cost-effectiveness of using long-lasting insecticide-treated hammocks in this area. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This cost-effectiveness study was run alongside a randomized control trial testing the efficacy of the long-lasting insecticide-treated hammocks. Data were collected through an exit survey, a household survey, expenditure records and key informant interviews. The study estimates that under normal (non-trial) conditions the total net societal cost per malaria episode averted in using long-lasting insecticide-treated hammocks in this area was 126 USD. Cost per hammock, including insecticidal netting, sewing, transport, and distribution was found to be approximately 11.76 USD per hammock. Average savings per episode averted were estimated to be $14.60 USD for the health system and 14.37 USD for households (including both direct and indirect cost savings). The study estimates that the annual financial outlay required of government to implement this type of programme to be 3.40 USD per person covered per year. CONCLUSION: The study finds that the use of a hammock intervention could represent good value for money to help prevent malaria in more remote areas, where traditional control measures such as insecticide-treated bednets and indoor residual spraying are insufficient or inappropriate to control malaria. However, the life span of the hammock-the number of years over which it effectively deters mosquitoes-has a significant impact on the cost-effectiveness of the intervention and study results should be interpreted in light of the evidence on effectiveness gathered in the years to come.

BACKGROUND: Neonatal mortality accounts for 43% of global under-five deaths and is decreasing more slowly than maternal or child mortality. Donor funding has increased for maternal, newborn, and child health (MNCH), but no analysis to date has disaggregated aid for newborns. We evaluated if and how aid flows for newborn care can be tracked, examined changes in the last decade, and considered methodological implications for tracking funding for specific population groups or diseases. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We critically reviewed and categorised previous analyses of aid to specific populations, diseases, or types of activities. We then developed and refined key terms related to newborn survival in seven languages and searched titles and descriptions of donor disbursement records in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's Creditor Reporting System database, 2002-2010. We compared results with the Countdown to 2015 database of aid for MNCH (2003-2008) and the search strategy used by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Prior to 2005, key terms related to newborns were rare in disbursement records but their frequency increased markedly thereafter. Only two mentions were found of "stillbirth" and only nine references were found to "fetus" in any spelling variant or language. The total value of non-research disbursements mentioning any newborn search terms rose from US$38.4 million in 2002 to US$717.1 million in 2010 (constant 2010 US$). The value of non-research projects exclusively benefitting newborns fluctuated somewhat but remained low, at US$5.7 million in 2010. The United States and the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) provided the largest value of non-research funding mentioning and exclusively benefitting newborns, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Donor attention to newborn survival has increased since 2002, but it appears unlikely that donor aid is commensurate with the 3.0 million newborn deaths and 2.7 million stillbirths each year. We recommend that those tracking funding for other specific population groups, diseases, or activities consider a key term search approach in the Creditor Reporting System along with a detailed review of their data, but that they develop their search terms and interpretations carefully, taking into account the limitations described. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Modelling is widely used to inform decisions about management of malaria and acute febrile illnesses. Most models depend on estimates of the probability that untreated patients with malaria or bacterial illnesses will progress to severe disease or death. However, data on these key parameters are lacking and assumptions are frequently made based on expert opinion. Widely diverse opinions can lead to conflicting outcomes in models they inform.A Delphi survey was conducted with malaria experts aiming to reach consensus on key parameters for public health and economic models, relating to the outcome of untreated febrile illnesses. Survey questions were stratified by malaria transmission intensity, patient age, and HIV prevalence. The impact of the variability in opinion on decision models is illustrated with a model previously used to assess the cost-effectiveness of malaria rapid diagnostic tests. Some consensus was reached around the probability that patients from higher transmission settings with untreated malaria would progress to severe disease (median 3%, inter-quartile range (IQR) 1-5%), and the probability that a non-malaria illness required antibiotics in areas of low HIV prevalence (median 20%). Children living in low transmission areas were considered to be at higher risk of progressing to severe malaria (median 30%, IQR 10-58%) than those from higher transmission areas (median 13%, IQR 7-30%). Estimates of the probability of dying from severe malaria were high in all settings (medians 60-73%). However, opinions varied widely for most parameters, and did not converge on resurveying.This study highlights the uncertainty around potential consequences of untreated malaria and bacterial illnesses. The lack of consensus on most parameters, the wide range of estimates, and the impact of variability in estimates on model outputs, demonstrate the importance of sensitivity analysis for decision models employing expert opinion. Results of such models should be interpreted cautiously. The diversity of expert opinion should be recognised when policy options are debated.

Delays in accessing care for malaria and other diseases can lead to disease progression, and user fees are a known barrier to accessing health care. Governments are introducing free health care to improve health outcomes. Free health care affects treatment seeking, and it is therefore assumed to lead to improved health outcomes, but there is no direct trial evidence of the impact of removing out-of-pocket payments on health outcomes in developing countries. This trial was designed to test the impact of free health care on health outcomes directly.2,194 households containing 2,592 Ghanaian children under 5 y old were randomised into a prepayment scheme allowing free primary care including drugs, or to a control group whose families paid user fees for health care (normal practice); 165 children whose families had previously paid to enrol in the prepayment scheme formed an observational arm. The primary outcome was moderate anaemia (haemoglobin [Hb] < 8 g/dl); major secondary outcomes were health care utilisation, severe anaemia, and mortality. At baseline the randomised groups were similar. Introducing free primary health care altered the health care seeking behaviour of households; those randomised to the intervention arm used formal health care more and nonformal care less than the control group. Introducing free primary health care did not lead to any measurable difference in any health outcome. The primary outcome of moderate anaemia was detected in 37 (3.1%) children in the control and 36 children (3.2%) in the intervention arm (adjusted odds ratio 1.05, 95% confidence interval 0.66-1.67). There were four deaths in the control and five in the intervention group. Mean Hb concentration, severe anaemia, parasite prevalence, and anthropometric measurements were similar in each group. Families who previously self-enrolled in the prepayment scheme were significantly less poor, had better health measures, and used services more frequently than those in the randomised group.In the study setting, removing out-of-pocket payments for health care had an impact on health care-seeking behaviour but not on the health outcomes measured.

The global burden of disease falls disproportionately upon the world's low-income countries, which are often struggling with weak health systems. Both the public and private sector deliver health care in these countries, but the appropriate role for each of these sectors in health system strengthening remains controversial. This debate examines whether the private sector should step up its involvement in the health systems of low-income countries.

A very large private health sector exists in low-income countries. It consists of a great variety of providers and is used by a wide cross-section of the population. There are substantial concerns about the quality of care given, especially at the more informal end of the range of providers. This is particularly true for diseases of public health importance such as tuberculosis, malaria, and sexually transmitted infections. How can the activities of the private sector in these countries be influenced so that they help to meet national health objectives? Although the evidence base is not good, there is a fair amount of information on the types of intervention that are most successful in directly influencing the behaviour of providers and on what might be the necessary conditions for success. There is much less evidence, however, of effective approaches to interventions on the demand side and policies that involve strengthening the purchasing and regulatory roles of governments.

The use of private health care providers in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is widespread and is the subject of considerable debate. We review here a new model of private primary care provision emerging in South Africa, in which commercial companies provide standardized primary care services at relatively low cost. The structure and operation of one such company is described, and features of service delivery are compared with the most probable alternatives: a private general practitioner or a public sector clinic. In a case study of cost and quality of services, the clinics were popular with service users and run at a cost per visit comparable to public sector primary care clinics. However, their current role in tackling important public health problems was limited. The implications for public health policy of the emergence of this new model of private provider are discussed. It is argued that encouraging the use of such clinics by those who can afford to pay for them might not help to improve care available for the poorest population groups, which are an important priority for the government. Encouraging such providers to compete for government funding could, however, be desirable if the range of services presently offered, and those able to access them, could be broadened. However, the constraints to implementing such a system successfully are notable, and these are acknowledged. Even without such contractual arrangements, these companies provide an important lesson to the public sector that acceptability of services to users and low-cost service delivery are not incompatible objectives.

This paper examines the policy options for the regulation of dual job holding by medical professionals in highly resource-constrained settings. Such activity is generally driven by a lack of resources in the public sector and low pay, and has been associated with the unauthorized use of public resources and corruption. It is also typically poorly regulated; regulations are either lacking, or when they exist, are vague or poorly implemented because of low regulatory capacity. This paper draws on the limited evidence available on this topic to assess a number of regulatory options in relation to the objectives of quality of care and access to services, as well as some of the policy constraints that can undermine implementation in resource-poor settings. The approach taken in highlighting these broader social objectives seeks to avoid the value judgements regarding dual working and some of its associated forms of behaviour that have tended to characterize previous analyses. Dual practice is viewed as a possible system solution to issues such as limited public sector resources (and incomes), low regulatory capacity and the interplay between market forces and human resources. This paper therefore offers some support for policies that allow for the official recognition of such activity and embrace a degree of professional self-regulation. In providing clearer policy guidance, future research in this area needs to adopt a more evaluative approach than that which has been used to date.

Most commonly, lessons derived from comparisons of international health sector reform can only be generalized in a limited way to similar countries. However, there is little guidance as to what constitutes "similarity" in this respect. We propose that a framework for assessing similarity could be derived from the performance of individual policies in different contexts, and from the cause and effect processes related to the policies. We demonstrate this process by considering research evidence in the "public-private mix", and propose variables for an initial framework that we believe determine private involvement in the public health sector. The most influential model of public leadership places the private role in a contracting framework. Research in countries that have adopted this model suggests an additional list of variables to add to the framework. The variables can be grouped under the headings "demand factors", "supply factors", and "strength of the public sector". These illustrate the nature of a framework that could emerge, and which would help countries aiming to learn from international experience.