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Health economics is a discipline of economics applied to health care. One method used in health economics is decision tree modelling, which extrapolates the cost and effectiveness of competing interventions over time. Such decision tree models are the basis of reimbursement decisions in countries using health technology assessment for decision making. In many instances, these competing interventions are diagnostic technologies. Despite a wealth of excellent resources describing the decision analysis of diagnostics, two critical errors persist: not including diagnostic test accuracy in the structure of decision trees and treating sequential diagnostics as independent. These errors have consequences for the accuracy of model results, and thereby impact on decision making. This paper sets out to overcome these errors using color to link fundamental epidemiological calculations to decision tree models in a visually and intuitively appealing pictorial format. The paper is a must-read for modelers developing decision trees in the area of diagnostics for the first time and decision makers reviewing diagnostic reimbursement models.

A persistent infection with human papillomavirus (HPV) is a prerequisite for the development of cervical cancer. Clinical trials with HPV-vaccines have been very successful in preventing persistent HPV16/18 infections, the two most oncogenic HPV-genotypes. We assessed the introduction of universal HPV-vaccination for preadolescent girls in the Dutch National Immunization Programme. Long-term vaccine efficacy, the need and extent of a catch-up programme for young women, and the impact of vaccination on the cervical cancer screening programme are major unresolved issues. Preliminary conservative estimates (80% vaccine efficacy and no effects on the screening programme, transmission rate, non-cervical cancer incidence, and cross protection) predict an acceptable cost-effectiveness ratio for universal vaccination of preadolescent girls.

Worldwide, the number of refugees and asylum seekers is estimated to be about 11.5 million plus a much larger number of former refugees who have obtained a residence permit in a new country. Although asylum seekers have been coming to the Netherlands since the 1980s, very few epidemiological studies have focused on this group of inhabitants or on the refugees who have resettled in this country. The objectives of this study were to estimate the prevalence rates of physical and mental health problems and to identify the risk factors for these complaints. A population-based study was conducted in the Netherlands from June 2003 to April 2004 among adult refugees and asylum seekers from Afghanistan, Iran and Somalia. Asylum seekers were living in 14 randomly selected reception centres, and random samples of refugees were obtained from the population registers of three municipalities (Arnhem, Leiden and Zaanstad). A total of 178 refugees and 232 asylum seekers participated (response rates of 59 and 89%, respectively). General health and physical health were measured with the Short-Form 36 and a list of 19 chronic conditions, respectively; symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression and anxiety, were measured with the Harvard Trauma Questionnaire and the Hopkins Symptoms Checklist-25. More asylum seekers (59.1%) than refugees (42.0%) considered their health to be poor (P=0.001). In both groups, approximately half of the respondents suffered from more than one chronic condition. More asylum seekers than refugees had symptoms of PTSD (28.1 and 10.6%, respectively; P=0.000) and depression/anxiety (68.1 and 39.4, respectively; P=0.000). Respondents from Afghanistan and, in particular, from Iran had a higher risk for PTSD and depression/anxiety. Female gender was associated with chronic conditions, PTSD and depression/anxiety, and higher age was associated with poor general health and chronic conditions. A greater number of traumatic events was associated with all health outcomes, and more post-migration stress and less social support were associated with PTSD and depression/anxiety symptoms. Both physical and mental health problems are highly prevalent among refugees and asylum seekers in the Netherlands. Although higher prevalence rates for most health outcomes were found among asylum seekers, both the specific health services for asylum seekers and the general health services in the municipalities should be aware of these problems.

Carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) is a common disorder, for which various conservative treatment options are available. The objective of this study is to determine the efficacy of the various conservative treatment options for relieving the symptoms of CTS. Computer-aided searches of MED-LINE (1/1966 to 3/2000), EMBASE (1/1988 to 2/2000) and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (2000, issue 1) were conducted, together with reference checking. Included were randomised controlled trials evaluating the efficacy of conservative treatment options in a study population of CTS patients, with a full report published in English, German, French or Dutch. Two reviewers independently selected the studies. Fourteen randomised controlled trials were included in the review. Assessment of methodological quality and data-extraction was independently performed by two reviewers. A rating system, based on the number of studies and their methodological quality and findings, was used to determine the strength of the available evidence for the efficacy of the treatment. Diuretics, pyridoxine, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, yoga and laser-acupuncture seem to be ineffective in providing short-term symptom relief (varying levels of evidence) and steroid injections seem to be effective (limited evidence). There is conflicting evidence for the efficacy of ultrasound and oral steroids. For providing long-term relief from symptoms there is limited evidence that ultrasound is effective, and that splinting is less effective than surgery. In conclusion, there is still little known about the efficacy of most conservative treatment options for CTS. To establish stronger evidence more high quality trials are needed.

Context: Carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) can be treated with nonsurgical or surgical options. However, there is no consensus on the most effective method of treatment. Objective: To compare the short-term and long-term efficacy of splinting and surgery for relieving the symptoms of CTS. Design, Setting, and Patients: A randomized controlled trial conducted from October 1998 to April 2000 at 13 neurological outpatient clinics in the Netherlands. A total of 176 patients with clinically and electrophysiologically confirmed idiopathic CTS were assigned to wrist splinting during the night for at least 6 weeks (89 patients) or open carpal tunnel release (87 patients); 147 patients (84%) completed the final follow-up assessment 18 months after randomization. Main Outcome Measures: General improvement, number of nights waking up due to symptoms, and severity of symptoms. Results: In the intention-to-treat analyses, surgery was more effective than splinting on all outcome measures. The success rates (based on general improvement) after 3 months were 80% for the surgery group (62/78 patients) vs 54% for the splinting group (46/86 patients), which is a difference of 26% (95% confidence interval [CI], 12%-40%; P

Possible solutions to the problems of clinical heterogeneity of outcome measures and inadequate reporting of results for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) are presented. Meta-analysis was impeded by these problems in 2 systematic reviews concerning conservative and surgical treatment options for CTS. A solution to the problem of inadequate data presentation is to add explicit information on minimal requirements with regard to data presentation to guidelines for the reporting of studies. To resolve the problem of clinical heterogeneity of the outcomes there should be consensus on the (validated) outcomes that should be used in RCTs. For CTS there is little evidence available on the reliability, validity, and responsiveness to change of the commonly used outcomes in RCTs. Resolving both problems will increase the comparability of RCTs, enabling the calculation of a pooled estimate of effect in a meta-analysis.

Background: Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a major health problem among refugees worldwide. After resettlement, the prevalence of PTSD remains high despite the fact that various PTSD treatments are known to be effective. Methods: We examined the course of PTSD and the role of mental health care utilisation at a 7-year interval (2003-2010) among a cohort of refugees from Iran, Afghanistan, and Somalia after resettlement in the Netherlands. Results: The unchanged high prevalence of PTSD (16.3% in 2003 and 15.2% in 2010) was attributable in part to late onset of PTSD symptoms (half of the respondents with PTSD at T2 were new cases for whom PTSD developed after 2003). The second reason concerned the low use of mental health care services at T1. Whereas the multivariate analyses showed the effectiveness of mental health care, only 21% of respondents with PTSD at T1 had had contact with a mental health care provider at that time. Use of mental health care during the first wave increased the odds of improvement in PTSD symptoms between both measurements (OR 7.58, 95% CI 1.01; 56.85). Conclusions: The findings of this study suggest there are two possible explanations for the persistently high prevalence of PTSD among refugees. One is the late onset of PTSD and the other is the low utilisation of mental health care. Health care professionals should be aware of these issues, especially given the effectiveness of mental health care for this condition.

Background: A high prevalence of mental and physical ill health among refugees resettled in the Netherlands has been reported. With this study we aim to assess the quality of primary healthcare for resettled refugees in the Netherlands with chronic mental and non-communicable health problems, we examined: a) general practitioners’ (GP) recognition of common mental disorders (CMD) (depression and anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms); b) patients’ awareness of diabetes type II (DMII) and hypertension (HT); and c) GPs’ adherence to guidelines for CMD, DMII and HT.Methods: From 172 refugees resettled in the Netherlands, interview data (2010-2011) and medical records (n = 106), were examined. Inclusion was based on medical record diagnoses for DMII and HT, and on questionnaire-based CMD measures (Hopkins Symptom Checklist for depression and anxiety; Harvard Trauma Questionnaire for PTSD). GP recognition of CMD was calculated as the number of CMD cases registered in the medical record compared with those found in interviews. Patient awareness of HT and DMII was scored as the percentage of subjects diagnosed by the GP who reported their condition during the interview. GPs’ adherence to guidelines for CMD, DMII and HT was measured using established indicators.Results: We identified 37 resettled refugees with CMD of which 18 (49%) had been recognised by the GP. We identified 16 refugees with DMII and 14 with HT from the medical record; 24 (80%) were aware of their condition. Thirty-five out of these 53 (66%) resettled refugees with chronic mental and non-communicable disorders received guideline-adherent treatment.Conclusion: This study shows that awareness in resettled refugees of GP diagnosed DMII and HT is high, whereas GP recognition of CMD and overall guideline adherence are moderate.

BackgroundCarpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) is a common disorder for which several surgical treatment options are available. However, there is no consensus on the most effective method of treatment. The object of this systematic review is to compare the efficacy of the various surgical techniques in relieving the symptoms of CTS and promoting return to work and/or activities of daily living.MethodsComputer-aided searches of Medline, EMBASE and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register were conducted, together with reference checking. A rating system, based on the number of studies and their methodological quality and findings, was used to determine the strength of the available evidence for the efficacy of the treatment.ResultsFourteen studies were included in the review. None of the alternatives to standard open carpal tunnel release (OCTR) seems to offer better relief of symptoms. There is conflicting evidence about whether endoscopic carpal tunnel release results in earlier return to work and/or activities of daily living.ConclusionStandard OCTR is still the preferred method of treatment for CTS. It is just as effective as the alternatives, but is technically less demanding, so incurs a lower risk of complications and of added costs.

Background Reducing the burden of disease relies on availability of evidence-based clinical practice guidelines (CPGs). There is limited data on availability, quality and content of guidelines within the Southern African Development Community (SADC). This evaluation aims to address this gap in knowledge and provide recommendations for regional guideline development. Methods We prioritised five diseases: HIV in adults, malaria in children and adults, pre-eclampsia, diarrhoea in children and hypertension in primary care. A comprehensive electronic search to locate guidelines was conducted between June and October 2010 and augmented with email contact with SADC Ministries of Health. Independent reviewers used the AGREE II tool to score six quality domains reporting the guideline development process. Alignment of the evidence-base of the guidelines was evaluated by comparing their content with key recommendations from accepted reference guidelines, identified with a content expert, and percentage scores were calculated. Findings We identified 30 guidelines from 13 countries, publication dates ranging from 2003-2010. Overall the 'scope and purpose' and 'clarity and presentation' domains of the AGREE II instrument scored highest, median 58%(range 19-92) and 83%(range 17-100) respectively. 'Stakeholder involvement' followed with median 39%(range 6-75). 'Applicability', 'rigour of development' and 'editorial independence' scored poorly, all below 25%. Alignment with evidence was variable across member states, the lowest scores occurring in older guidelines or where the guideline being evaluated was part of broader primary healthcare CPG rather than a disease-specific guideline. Conclusion This review identified quality gaps and variable alignment with best evidence in available guidelines within SADC for five priority diseases. Future guideline development processes within SADC should better adhere to global reporting norms requiring broader consultation of stakeholders and transparency of process. A regional guideline support committee could harness local capacity to support context appropriate guideline development.

To the Editor: The political and economic decline in Zimbabwe has forced many Zimbabweans to migrate to neighbouring countries and abroad. 1 A large number of Zimbabwean migrants live in poverty in the border region. The high demand for shelter forces some people to create and occupy very basic dwellings 2 and cook food in tin cans over fires. Many live in cardboard and plastic shelters, some in the back yards of overcrowded homes where they have to pay rent. Others sleep under trees next to roads or on open fields on farms, at railway stations or on the street. 3

To determine the need for HIV/AIDS service provision in the City of Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality (CTMM), especially in municipal areas.The Foundation for Professional Development initiated the Compass Project. Using a questionnaire, data were collected during May - June 2010 from organisations providing HIV/AIDS services in the CTMM (organisational information and types of HIV/AIDS services). The need for HIV counselling and testing (HCT), antiretroviral treatment (ART), prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT), and care for orphans and vulnerable children (OVC) was estimated using data from various sources.A total of 447 service providers was included in the study: 72.3% non-governmental organisations (NGOs); 18.1% in the public sector; 5.1% in the private sector; and 4.5% faith-based organisations. The majority of the prevention- (70.2%) and support-related services (77.4%) were provided by NGOs, while the majority of treatment-related services originated from the public sector (57.3%). Service need estimates included: HCT - 1 435 438 adults aged 15 - 49 years (11 127/service provider); total ART - 75 211 adults aged 15+ years (1 213/service provider); ART initiation - 30 713 adults aged 15+ years (495/service provider); PMTCT-HCT - 30 092 pregnant women (510/service provider); PMTCT-ART - 7 734 HIV+ pregnant women (221/service provider); and OVC care - 54 590 children (258/service provider).Service gaps remain in the provision of HCT, PMTCT-ART and OVC care. ART provision must be increased, in light of new treatment guidelines from the Department of Health.

Background Nine out of ten deaths from malaria occur in sub-Saharan Africa. Various control measures have achieved some progress in the control of the disease, but malaria is still a major public health problem in Africa. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are universally considered the best study type to rigorously assess whether an intervention is effective. The study reported here provides a descriptive analysis of RCTs reporting interventions for the prevention and treatment of malaria conducted in Africa, with the aim of providing detailed information on their main clinical and methodological characteristics, that could be used by researchers and policy makers to help plan future research. Methods Systematic searches for malaria RCTs were conducted using electronic databases (Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Library), and an African geographic search filter to identify RCTs conducted in Africa was applied. Results were exported to the statistical package STATA 8 to obtain a random sample from the overall data set. Final analysis of trial characteristics was done in a double blinded fashion by two authors using a standardized data extraction form. Results A random sample of 92 confirmed RCTs (from a total of 943 reports obtained between 1948 and 2007) was prepared. Most trials investigated drug treatment in children with uncomplicated malaria. Few trials reported on treatment of severe malaria or on interventions in pregnant women. Most trials were of medium size (100-500 participants), individually randomized and based in a single centre. Reporting of trial quality was variable. Although three-quarter of trials provided information on participants' informed consent and ethics approval, more details are needed. Conclusions The majority of malaria RCT conducted in Africa report on drug treatment and prevention in children; there is need for more research done in pregnant women. Sources of funding, informed consent and trial quality were often poorly reported. Overall, clearer reporting of trials is needed.

Background To determine gender differences in health and health care utilisation within and between various ethnic groups in the Netherlands. Methods Data from the second Dutch National Survey of General Practice (2000–2002) were used. A total of 7,789 persons from the indigenous population and 1,512 persons from the four largest migrant groups in the Netherlands – Morocco, Netherlands Antilles, Turkey and Surinam – aged 18 years and older were interviewed. Self-reported health outcomes studied were general health status and the presence of acute (past 14 days) and chronic conditions (past 12 months). And self-reported utilisation of the following health care services was analysed: having contacted a general practitioner (past 2 months), a medical specialist, physiotherapist or ambulatory mental health service (past 12 months), hospitalisation (past 12 months) and use of medication (past 14 days). Gender differences in these outcomes were examined within and between the ethnic groups, using logistic regression analyses. Results In general, women showed poorer health than men; the largest differences were found for the Turkish respondents, followed by Moroccans, and Surinamese. Furthermore, women from Morocco and the Netherlands Antilles more often contacted a general practitioner than men from these countries. Women from Turkey were more hospitalised than Turkish men. Women from Morocco more often contacted ambulatory mental health care than men from this country, and women with an indigenous background more often used over the counter medication than men with an indigenous background. Conclusion In general the self-reported health of women is worse compared to that of men, although the size of the gender differences may vary according to the particular health outcome and among the ethnic groups. This information might be helpful to develop policy to improve the health status of specific groups according to gender and ethnicity. In addition, in some ethnic groups, and for some types of health care services, the use by women is higher compared to that by men. More research is needed to explain these differences.

Introduction: Worldwide, refugees show a poorer mental and physical health than the populations among which they resettle. Little is known about the factors influencing health after resettlement. We examined the development of mental and physical health of refugees. As experienced living difficulties might decrease with obtaining a residence permit, we expected this to play a central role in health improvement after resettlement. Methods: A two-wave study conducted in the Netherlands among a cohort of 172 recent ( n = 68) and longstanding ( n = 104) permit holders from Afghanistan, Iran and Somalia between 2003 and 2011. Multivariate mediation analyses were conducted for the effect of changes in living difficulties on the association between change in status and changes in health. Health outcomes were self-reported general health, number of chronic conditions, PTSD and anxiety/depression. Results: Recent permit holders had larger decreases in PTSD score (−0.402, CI −0.612; −0.192) and anxiety/depression score (−0.298, CI −0.464; −0.132), and larger improvements in self-rated general health between T1 and T2 (0.566, CI 0.183; 0.949) than longstanding permit holders. This association was not significant for changes in number of chronic conditions. Mediation analyses showed that the effect of getting a residence permit on health improvements transited through an improvement in living conditions, in particular employment and the presence of family/social support. Conclusion: These results suggest that change in residence permit is beneficial for health mainly because of the change in living difficulties. These results add up to the evidence on the role of social circumstances for refugees upon resettlement, and point at labour participation and social support as key mechanisms for health improvements.

Background Carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) is a common disorder, often treated with surgery or wrist splinting. The objective of this economic evaluation alongside a randomized trial was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of splinting and surgery for patients with CTS. Methods Patients at 13 neurological outpatient clinics with clinically and electrophysiologically confirmed idiopathic CTS were randomly allocated to splinting (n = 89) or surgery (n = 87). Clinical outcome measures included number of nights waking up due to symptoms, general improvement, severity of the main complaint, paraesthesia at night and during the day, and utility. The economic evaluation was performed from a societal perspective and involved all relevant costs. Results There were no differences in costs. The mean total costs per patient were in the surgery group EURO 2,126 compared to EURO 2,111 in the splint group. After 12 months, the success rate in the surgery group (92%) was significantly higher than in the splint group (72%). The acceptability curve showed that at a relatively low ceiling ratio of EURO 2,500 per patient there is a 90% probability that surgery is cost-effective. Conclusion In the Netherlands, surgery is more cost-effective compared with splinting, and recommended as the preferred method of treatment for patients with CTS.

The reported relationships between nerve conduction studies (NCS) and outcome measures in carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) are weak to moderate. However, selection of patients may have confounded nonrandomized studies. NCS have potentially great value in selecting patients for a specific treatment and in objectively assessing the efficacy of treatments in CTS, especially if they correlate significantly with clinical outcome measures. To investigate the relationship between clinical outcome measures for the severity of complaints and NCS in patients treated for CTS, data were obtained from a multicenter randomized controlled trial on the efficacy of splinting versus surgery for CTS. At baseline and 12 months after randomization, clinical outcome measures were assessed and NCS were performed. In total, 138 patients completed the questionnaires and underwent repeated NCS. Relationships were analyzed with Spearman rank correlation coefficients and Pearson correlation coefficients. All NCS parameters showed highly significant improvement compared with baseline (P0.001). Modest correlations (0.4) were found between the neurophysiologic and clinical outcome measures after 12 months, and between the changes in these different categories of outcome measures. This study confirms that the parameters of NCS improve significantly after treatment for CTS, but the modest correlations between neurophysiologic and clinical outcome measures do not support that NCS are routinely performed in clinical practice to evaluate treatment effects. However, studies investigating the effects of treatment for CTS should incorporate both clinical outcome measures and NCS, because they are complementary. Furthermore, NCS can provide additional information to the clinician when treatment effects are unsatisfactory.

Background This article discusses the design of a study on the prevalence of health problems (both physical and mental) and the utilisation of health care services among asylum seekers and refugees in the Netherlands, including factors that may be related to their health and their utilisation of these services. Methods/Design The study will include random samples of adult asylum seekers and refugees from Afghanistan, Iran and Somali (total planned sample of 600), as these are among the largest groups within the reception centres and municipalities in the Netherlands. The questionnaire that will be used will include questions on physical health (chronic and acute diseases and somatization), mental health (Hopkins Symptoms Checklist-25 and Harvard Trauma Questionnaire), utilisation of health care services, pre- and post-migratory traumatic experiences, life-style, acculturation, social support and socio-demographic background. The questionnaire has gone through a translation process (translation and back-translation, several checks and a pilot-study) and cross-cultural adaptation. Respondents will be interviewed by bilingual and bicultural interviewers who will be specifically trained for this purpose. This article discusses the selection of the study population, the chosen outcome measures, the translation and cross-cultural adaptation of the measurement instrument, the training of the interviewers and the practical execution of the study. The information provided may be useful for other researchers in this relatively new field of epidemiological research among various groups of asylum seekers and refugees.

OBJECTIVES: To identify (combinations of) prognostic indicators for the long term success of splinting in patients with electrophysiologically confirmed idiopathic carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS).METHODS: This study was conducted within the framework of a randomised controlled trial on the efficacy of splinting and surgery for CTS. Patients randomised to splinting received a wrist splint, which they had to wear during the night for at least six weeks. To assess the long term success, patients were asked to indicate whether there was any improvement 12 months after randomisation. Potential prognostic indicators included variables from the history taking and physical examination, self administered questionnaires on severity of symptoms, and electrodiagnostic studies. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify (combinations of) prognostic indicators.RESULTS: Of the 89 patients randomised to splinting, 83 attended the follow up measurement at 12 months, of whom 60 reported improvement. However, 34 patients had received one or more additional types of treatment during the follow up period and were therefore considered as treatment failures for splinting, resulting in a final success rate of 31% for splinting (26 of 83 patients). Only two prognostic indicators could be identified, namely a short duration of CTS complaints (one year or less) and a score of 6 or less for severity of paraesthesia at night at baseline.CONCLUSIONS: For patients to whom both factors applied, the predicted probability of treatment success, according to the model, was 62%. The overall percentage of patients who were correctly classified by the model was 78% (95% CI 69% to 87%).

Background Carpal tunnel syndrome is a common disorder, which can be treated with surgery or conservative options. However, there is insufficient evidence and no consensus among physicians with regard to the preferred treatment for carpal tunnel syndrome. Therefore, a randomized controlled trial is conducted to compare the short- and long-term efficacy of surgery and splinting in patients with carpal tunnel syndrome. An attempt is also made to avoid the (methodological) limitations encountered in earlier trials on the efficacy of various treatment options for carpal tunnel syndrome. Methods Patients of 18 years and older, with clinically and electrophysiologically confirmed idiopathic carpal tunnel syndrome, are recruited by neurologists in 13 hospitals. Patients included in the study are randomly allocated to either open carpal tunnel release or wrist splinting during the night for at least 6 weeks. The primary outcomes are general improvement, waking up at night and severity of symptoms (main complaint, night and daytime pain, paraesthesia and hypoesthesia). Outcomes are assessed up to 18 months after randomization.

Various conservative treatment options for repetitive strain injury are widely used, despite questionable evidence of their effectiveness. This systematic review evaluates the effectiveness of these treatment options for relieving symptoms of repetitive strain injury and improving activities of daily living. Searches in Medline and Embase, with additional reference checking resulted in 15 eligible trials for this review. Methodological quality was assessed, and data-extraction was performed. With the use of a "best-evidence synthesis", no strong evidence was found for the effectiveness of any of the treatment options. There is limited evidence that multidisciplinary rehabilitation, ergonomic intervention measures, exercises, and spinal manipulation combined with soft tissue therapy are effective in providing symptom relief or improving activities of daily living. There is conflicting evidence for the effectiveness of behavioral therapy. In conclusion, little is known about the effectiveness of conservative treatment options for repetitive strain injury. To establish strong evidence, more high-quality trials are needed.

Information regarding HIV/AIDS service provision and need in South Africa (SA) is limited, especially in municipal areas. Since 2007, the Foundation for Professional Development (FPD) has conducted an annual survey among organisations providing HIV/AIDS-related services in the City of Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality (CTMM) to collect information on service provision and estimate service needs. The project aims to identify service provision gaps, prioritise municipal activities and promote evidence-based target-setting. The 2010 FPD survey findings were published 1 and the 2011 report was released. Methods data from the Department of Health (DoH) and Statistics South Africa (SSA) mid-year population estimates were used to approximate antiretroviral therapy (ART) need among adults in the CTMM, as previously published. 1 A distinction was made between the number of adults requiring ART initiation and the total ART need (total number of adults receiving ART plus those in need of ART initiation) in a set year. Total ART need in the CTMM was calculated based on the total ART need among adults aged ≥15 years in SA. The latter, reported in the Statistics South Africa (SSA) mid-year population estimates, was calculated using Spectrum Software. 2 To calculate the need for ART initiation among adults in the CTMM, the number already receiving ART was required. This was extrapolated from SSA mid-year population estimates of the number of adults aged ≥15 years receiving ART in SA 2 (data obtained from the DoH).

pace could also be reported more accurately than time spent walking, which may explain, in part, the observed relatively higher importance of walking pace compared with total walking volume. Also, to minimize confounding by high-intensity activity, we assessed walking and walking pace in men who did not perform vigorous exercise. Thus, the reference category was considerably different than those used for specific exercises. A strong risk reduction from walking pace does not mean that walking pace is a more important predictor of risk than jogging but that, among men with low levels of activity, walking faster is associated with lower risk. Although we cannot completely rule out the possibility that certain genetic factors determine both exercise intensity and CHD risk, a strong genetic factor for CHD has not been identified in the general population. We agree with Brody that walking pace may be a marker of many unmeasured behavioral variables. Although these variables may have influenced our results, they would have to be very powerfully related to both walking pace and heart disease to explain the strong inverse association between walking pace and risk of CHD. In addition, several intervention studies have found that brisk walking improves cardiovascular fitness and lipoprotein profile and reduces body fat.