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Co-auteur étranger; International audience; Future occurrence of explosive eruptive activity at Cotopaxi and Guagua Pichincha volcanoes, Ecuador, is assessed probabilistically, utilizing expert elicitation. Eight eruption types were considered for each volcano. Type event probabilities were evaluated for the next eruption at each volcano and for at least one of each type within the next 100 years. For each type, we elicited relevant eruption source parameters (duration, average plume height, and total tephra mass). We investigated the robustness of these elicited evaluations by deriving probability uncertainties using three expert scoring methods. For Cotopaxi, we considered both rhyolitic and andesitic magmas. Elicitation findings indicate that the most probable next eruption type is an andesitic hydrovolcanic/ash-emission (~ 26–44% median probability), which has also the highest median probability of recurring over the next 100 years. However, for the next eruption at Cotopaxi, the average joint probabilities for sub-Plinian or Plinian type eruption is of order 30–40%—a significant chance of a violent explosive event. It is inferred that any Cotopaxi rhyolitic eruption could involve a longer duration and greater erupted mass than an andesitic event, likely producing a prolonged emergency. For Guagua Pichincha, future eruption types are expected to be andesitic/dacitic, and a vulcanian event is judged most probable for the next eruption (median probability ~40–55%); this type is expected to be most frequent over the next 100 years, too. However, there is a substantial probability (possibly >40% in average) that the next eruption could be sub-Plinian or Plinian, with all that implies for hazard levels.

Forecasting future activity and performing hazard assessments during the reactivation of volcanoes remain great challenges for the volcanological community. On August 14, 2015 Cotopaxi volcano erupted for the first time in 73 years after approximately four months of precursory activity, which included an increase in seismicity, gas emissions, and minor ground deformation. Here we discuss the use of near real-time petrological monitoring of ash samples as a complementary aid to geophysical monitoring, in order to infer eruption dynamics and evaluate possible future eruptive activity at Cotopaxi. Twenty ash samples were collected between August 14 and November 23, 2015 from a monitoring site on the west flank of the volcano. These samples contain a range of grain types that we classified as: hydrothermal/altered, lithic, juvenile, and free crystals. The relative proportions of theses grains evolved as the eruption progressed, with increasing amounts of juvenile material and a decrease in hydrothermally altered material. In samples from the initial explosion, juvenile grains are glassy, microlite-poor and contain hydrothermal minerals (opal and alunite). The rising magma came in contact with the hydro thermal system under confinement, causing hydro-magmatic explosions that cleared the upper part of the plumbing system. Subsequently, the magmatic column produced a thermal aureole in the conduit and dried out the hydrothermal system, allowing for dry eruptions. Magma ascent rates were low enough to allow for efficient outgassing and microlite growth. Constant supply of magma from below caused quasi-continuous disruption of the uppermost magma volume through a combination of shear-deformation and gas expansion. The combination of increasing crystallinity of juvenile grains, and high measured SO2 flux indicate decreasing integrated magma ascent rates and clearing of the hydrothermal system along transport pathways in a system open to gas loss. The near real-time monitoring of ash samples combined with traditional geophysical monitoring techniques during the reawakening of Cotopaxi allowed us to gain a much clearer understanding of events than when using traditional geophysical monitoring alone. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

International audience; Understanding the relationships between geophysical signals and volcanic products is critical to improving real-time volcanic hazard assessment. Thanks to high-frequency sampling campaigns of ash fallouts (15 campaigns, 461 samples), the 2015 Cotopaxi eruption is an outstanding candidate for quantitatively comparing the amplitude of seismic tremor with the amount of ash emitted. This eruption emitted a total of ~1.2E + 9 kg of ash (~8.6E + 5 m3) during four distinct phases, with masses ranging from 3.5E + 7 to 7.7E + 8 kg of ash. We compare the ash fallout mass and the corresponding cumulative quadratic median amplitude of the seismic tremor and find excellent correlations when the dataset is divided by eruptive phase. We use scaling factors based on the individual correlations to reconstruct the eruptive process and to extract synthetic Eruption Source Parameters (daily mass of ash, mass eruption rate, and column height) from the seismic records. We hypothesize that the change in scaling factor through time, associated with a decrease in seismic amplitudes compared to ash emissions, is the result of a more efficient fragmentation and transport process. These results open the possibility of feeding numerical models with continuous geophysical data, after adequate calibration, in order to better characterize volcanic hazards during explosive eruptions.