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In this study, we explore the dynamic interplay between the timing of vaccination campaigns and the trajectory of disease spread in a population. Through comprehensive data analysis and modeling, we have uncovered a counter-intuitive phenomenon: initiating a vaccination process at an inopportune moment can paradoxically result in a more pronounced second peak of infections. This "rebound" phenomenon challenges the conventional understanding of vaccination impacts on epidemic dynamics. We provide a detailed examination of how improperly timed vaccination efforts can inadvertently reduce the overall immunity level in a population, considering both natural and vaccine-induced immunity. Our findings reveal that such a decrease in population-wide immunity can lead to a delayed, yet more severe, resurgence of cases. This study not only adds a critical dimension to our understanding of vaccination strategies in controlling pandemics but also underscores the necessity for strategically timed interventions to optimize public health outcomes. Furthermore, we compute which vaccination strategies are optimal for a COVID-19 tailored mathematical model, and find that there are two types of optimal strategies. The first type prioritizes vaccinating early and rapidly to reduce the number of deaths, while the second type acts later and more slowly to reduce the number of cases; both of them target primarily the elderly population. Our results hold significant implications for the formulation of vaccination policies, particularly in the context of rapidly evolving infectious diseases., Comment: 18 pages, 7 figures

We introduce a surveillance strategy specifically designed for urban areas to enhance preparedness and response to disease outbreaks by leveraging the unique characteristics of human behavior within urban contexts. By integrating data on individual residences and travel patterns, we construct a Mixing matrix that facilitates the identification of critical pathways that ease pathogen transmission across urban landscapes enabling targeted testing strategies. Our approach not only enhances public health systems' ability to provide early epidemiological alerts but also underscores the variability in strategy effectiveness based on urban layout. We prove the feasibility of our mobility-informed policies by mapping essential mobility flows to major transit stations, showing that few resources focused on specific stations yields a more effective surveillance than non-targeted approaches. This study emphasizes the critical role of integrating human behavioral patterns into epidemic management strategies to improve the preparedness and resilience of major cities against future outbreaks., Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures. Supplementary Material: 5 pages, 5 figures, 1 table

This study investigates the role of spatial segregation, prompted by competition avoidance, as a key mechanism for emergent coexistence within microbial communities. Recognizing these communities as complex adaptive systems, we challenge the sufficiency of mean-field pairwise interaction models and consider the impact of spatial dynamics. We developed an individual-based spatial simulation depicting bacterial movement through a pattern of random walks influenced by competition avoidance, leading to the formation of spatially segregated clusters. This model was integrated with a Lotka-Volterra metapopulation framework focused on competitive interactions. Our findings reveal that spatial segregation combined with low diffusion rates and high compositional heterogeneity among patches can lead to emergent coexistence in microbial communities. This reveals a novel mechanism underpinning the formation of stable, coexisting microbe clusters, which is nonetheless incapable of promoting coexistence in the case of isolated pairs of species. This study underscores the importance of considering spatial factors in understanding the dynamics of microbial ecosystems.

The spontaneous emergence of ordered structures, known as Turing patterns, in complex networks is a phenomenon that holds potential applications across diverse scientific fields, including biology, chemistry, and physics. Here, we present a novel delayed fractional-order susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) reaction-diffusion model functioning on a network, which is typically used to simulate disease transmission but can also model rumor propagation in social contexts. Our theoretical analysis establishes the Turing instability resulting from delay, and we support our conclusions through numerical experiments. We identify the unique impacts of delay, average network degree, and diffusion rate on pattern formation. The primary outcomes of our study are: (i) Delays cause system instability, mainly evidenced by periodic temporal fluctuations; (ii) The average network degree produces periodic oscillatory states in uneven spatial distributions; (iii) The combined influence of diffusion rate and delay results in irregular oscillations in both time and space. However, we also find that fractional-order can suppress the formation of spatiotemporal patterns. These findings are crucial for comprehending the impact of network structure on the dynamics of fractional-order systems., Comment: 23 pages, 9 figures

Contagion processes relying on the exposure to multiple sources are prevalent in social systems, and are effectively represented by hypergraphs. In this Letter, we derive a mean-field model that goes beyond node- and pair-based approximations. We reveal how the stability of the contagion-free state is decided by either two- or three-body interactions, and how this is strictly related to the degree of overlap between these interactions. Our findings demonstrate the dual effect of increased overlap: it lowers the invasion threshold, yet produces smaller outbreaks. Corroborated by numerical simulations, our results emphasize the significance of the chosen representation in describing a higher-order process., Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures

In some systems, the behavior of the constituent units can create a `context' that modifies the direct interactions among them. This mechanism of indirect modification inspired us to develop a minimal model of context-dependent spreading. In our model, agents actively impede (favor) or not diffusion during an interaction, depending on the behavior they observe among all the peers in the group within which that interaction occurs. We divide the population into two behavioral types and provide a mean-field theory to parametrize mixing patterns of arbitrary type-assortativity within groups of any size. As an application, we examine an epidemic spreading model with context-dependent adoption of prophylactic tools such as face-masks. By analyzing the distributions of groups' size and type-composition, we uncover a rich phenomenology for the basic reproduction number and the endemic state. We analytically show how changing the group organization of contacts can either facilitate or hinder epidemic spreading, eventually moving the system from the subcritical to the supercritical phase and vice versa, depending mainly on sociological factors, such as whether the prophylactic behavior is hardly or easily induced. More generally, our work provides a theoretical foundation to model higher-order contexts and analyze their dynamical implications, envisioning a broad theory of context-dependent interactions that would allow for a new systematic investigation of a variety of complex systems., Comment: 23 pages, 12 figures

The dynamics of many epidemic compartmental models for infectious diseases that spread in a single host population present a second-order phase transition. This transition occurs as a function of the infectivity parameter, from the absence of infected individuals to an endemic state. Here, we study this transition, from the perspective of dynamical systems, for a discrete-time compartmental epidemic model known as Microscopic Markov Chain Approach, whose applicability for forecasting future scenarios of epidemic spreading has been proved very useful during the COVID-19 pandemic. We show that there is an endemic state which is stable and a global attractor and that its existence is a consequence of a transcritical bifurcation. This mathematical analysis grounds the results of the model in practical applications., Comment: 15 pages, 3 figures

Robust coordination and organization in large ensembles of nonlinear oscillatory units play a vital role in a wide range of natural and engineered system. The control of self-organizing network-coupled systems has recently seen significant attention, but largely in the context of modifying or augmenting existing structures. This leaves a gap in our understanding of reactive control, where and how to design direct interventions, and what such control strategies may teach us about existing structures and dynamics. Here we study reactive control of coupled oscillator networks and demonstrate dual control strategies that may be implemented interchangeably to achieve synchronization. These differing strategies take advantage of different network properties, the first directly targeting oscillator that are difficult to entrain, and the second targeting oscillators with strong influence on others. Thus, in addition to enlarge strategies for network control, the different control sets shed light on the oscillators dynamical and structural roles within the system. We close with a demonstration of the applicability of dual control of a power grid dynamics.

Many complex networked systems exhibit volatile dynamic interactions among their vertices, whose order and persistence reverberate on the outcome of dynamical processes taking place on them. To quantify and characterize the similarity of the snapshots of a time-varying network -- a proxy for the persistence,-- we present a study on the persistence of the interactions based on a descriptor named \emph{temporality}. We use the average value of the temporality, $\overline{\mathcal{T}}$, to assess how ``\emph{special}'' is a given time-varying network within the configuration space of ordered sequences of snapshots. We analyze the temporality of several empirical networks and find that empirical sequences are much more similar than their randomized counterparts. We study also the effects on $\overline{\mathcal{T}}$ induced by the (time) resolution at which interactions take place., Comment: Main + Supplementary (as ancillary file)

Urban systems are characterized by populations with heterogeneous characteristics, and whose spatial distribution is crucial to understand inequalities in life expectancy or education level. Traditional studies on spatial segregation indicators focus often on first-neighbour correlations but fail to capture complex multi-scale patterns. In this work, we aim at characterizing the spatial distribution heterogeneity of socioeconomic features through diffusion and synchronization dynamics. In particular, we use the time needed to reach the synchronization as a proxy for the spatial heterogeneity of a socioeconomic feature, as for example, the income. Our analysis for 16~income categories in cities from the United States reveals that the spatial distribution of the most deprived and affluent citizens leads to higher diffusion and synchronization times. By measuring the time needed for a neighborhood to reach the global phase we are able to detect those that suffer from a steeper segregation. Overall, the present manuscript exemplifies how diffusion and synchronization dynamics can be used to assess the heterogeneity in the presence of node information., Comment: 18 pages, 15 Figures

Congestion emerges when high demand peaks put transportation systems under stress. Understanding the interplay between the spatial organization of demand, the route choices of citizens, and the underlying infrastructures is thus crucial to locate congestion hotspots and mitigate the delay. Here we develop a model where links are responsible for the processing of vehicles that can be solved analytically before and after the onset of congestion providing insights into the global and local congestion. We apply our method to synthetic and real transportation networks observing a strong agreement between the analytical solutions and the monte carlo simulations, and a reasonable agreement with the travel times observed in 12 cities under congested phase. Our framework can incorporate any type of routing extracted from real trajectory data to provide a more detailed description of congestion phenomena and could be used to dynamically adapt the capacity of road segments according to the flow of vehicles or reduce congestion through hotspot pricing., Comment: 29 pages, 40 figures

We introduce the concept of synchronization bombs as large networks of coupled heterogeneous oscillators that operate in a bistable regime and abruptly transit from incoherence to phase-locking (or vice-versa) by adding (or removing) one or a few links. Here we build a self-organized and stochastic version of these bombs, by optimizing global synchrony with decentralized information in a competitive link-percolation process driven by a local rule. We find explosive fingerprints on the emerging network structure, including frequency-degree correlations, disassortative patterns and a delayed percolation threshold. We show that these bomb-like transitions can be designed both in systems of Kuramoto -- periodic -- and R\"ossler -- chaotic -- oscillators and in a model of cardiac pacemaker cells. We analytically characterize the transitions in the Kuramoto case by combining a precise collective coordinates approach and the Ott-Antonsen ansatz. Furthermore, we study the robustness of the phenomena under changes in the main parameters and the unexpected effect of optimal noise in our model. Our results propose a minimal self-organized mechanism of network growth to understand and control explosive synchronization in adaptive biological systems like the brain and engineered ones like power-grids or electronic circuits. From a theoretical standpoint, the emergence of synchronization explosions and bistability induced by localized structural perturbations -- without any fine-tuning of global parameters -- joins explosive synchronization and percolation under the same mechanistic framework., Comment: 17 pages, 9 figures

The governance of the political and economic world order builds on a complex architecture of international treaties at various geographical scales. In a historical phase of high institutional turbulence, assessing the stability of such architecture with respect to the unilateral defection of single countries and to the breakdown of single treaties is important. We carry out this analysis on the whole global architecture and find that the countries with the highest disruption potential are not major world powers (with the exception of Germany and France) but mostly medium-small and micro-countries. Political stability is highly dependent on many former colonial overseas territories that are today part of the global network of fiscal havens, as well as on emerging economies, mostly from South-East Asia. Economic stability depends on medium sized European and African countries. However, single global treaties have surprisingly less disruptive potential, with the major exception of the WTO. These apparently counter-intuitive results highlight the importance to a nonlinear approach to international relations where the complex multilayered architecture of global governance is analyzed using advanced network science techniques. Our results suggest that the potential fragility of the world order seem to be much more directly related to global inequality and fiscal injustice than it is commonly believed, and that the legacy of the colonial world order is still very strong in the current international relations scenario. In particular, vested interests related to tax avoidance seem to have a structural role in the political architecture of global governance

After the leak of 11.5 million documents from the Panamanian corporation Mossack Fonseca, an intricate network of offshore business entities has been revealed. The emerging picture is that of legal entities, either individuals or companies, involved in offshore activities and transactions with several tax havens simultaneously which establish, indirectly, an effective network of countries acting on tax evasion. The analysis of this network quantitatively uncovers a strongly connected core (a rich-club) of countries whose indirect interactions, mediated by legal entities, form the skeleton for tax evasion worldwide. Intriguingly, the rich-club mainly consists of well-known tax havens such as British Virgin Islands and Hong Kong, and major global powers such as China, Russia, United Kingdom and United States of America. The analysis provides a new way to rank tax havens because of the role they play in this network, and the results call for an international coordination on taxation policies that take into account the complex interconnected structure of tax evaders in a globalized economy., Comment: 15 pages, 2 figures

The analysis of contagion-diffusion processes in metapopulations is a powerful theoretical tool to study how mobility influences the spread of communicable diseases. Nevertheless, many metapopulation approaches use indistinguishable agents to alleviate analytical difficulties. Here, we address the impact that recurrent mobility patterns, and the spatial distribution of distinguishable agents, have on the unfolding of epidemics in large urban areas. We incorporate the distinguishable nature of agents regarding both, their residence, and their usual destination. The proposed model allows both a fast computation of the spatio-temporal pattern of the epidemic trajectory and. the analytical calculation of the epidemic threshold. This threshold is found as the spectral radius of a mixing matrix encapsulating the residential distribution, and the specific commuting patterns of agents. We prove that the simplification of indistinguishable individuals overestimates the value of the epidemic threshold., Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures, 1 table

While much effort has been devoted to understand the role of intra-urban characteristics on sustainability and growth, much remains to be understood about the effect of inter-urban interactions and the role cities have in determining each other's urban welfare. Here we consider a global mobility network of population flows between cities as a proxy for the communication between these regions, and analyze how these flows impact socioeconomic indicators that measure economic success. We use several measures of centrality to rank cities according to their importance in the mobility network, finding PageRank to be the most effective measure for reflecting these prosperity indicators. Our analysis reveals that the characterization of the welfare of cities based on mobility information hinges on their corresponding development stage. Namely, while network-based predictions of welfare correlate well with economic indicators in mature cities, for developing urban areas additional information about the prosperity of their mobility neighborhood is needed. For these developing cities, those that are connected to sets of mature cities show markedly better socio-economic indicators than those connected to less mature cities. We develop a simple generative model for the allocation of population flows out of a city that balances the costs and benefits of interaction with other cities that are successful, finding that it provides a strong fit to the flows observed in the global mobility network and highlights the differences in flow patterns between developed and developing urban regions. Our results hint towards the importance of leveraging inter-urban connections in service of urban development and welfare., Comment: 21 pages, 3 figures, 2 Tables, Supplementary Material, 12 figures, 2 Tables

Physical contacts do not occur randomly, rather, individuals with similar socio-demographic and behavioural characteristics are more likely to interact among them, a phenomenon known as homophily. Concurrently, the same characteristics correlate with the adoption of prophylactic tools. As a result, the latter do not unfold homogeneously in a population, affecting their ability to control the spread of infectious diseases. Here, focusing on the case of vaccines, we reveal three different dynamical regimes as a function of the mixing rate between vaccinated and non vaccinated individuals. Specifically, depending on the epidemic pressure, vaccine coverage and efficacy, we find the attack rate to decrease, increase or vary non monotonously with respect to the mixing rate. We corroborate the phenomenology through Monte Carlo simulations on a temporal physical contact network. Besides vaccines, our findings hold for a wide range of prophylactic tools, indicating a universal mechanism in spreading dynamics

The behaviour of individuals is a main actor in the control of the spread of a communicable disease and, in turn, the spread of an infectious disease can trigger behavioural changes in a population. Here, we study the emergence of the individuals protective behaviours in response to the spread of a disease by considering two different social attitudes within the same population: concerned and risky. Generally speaking, concerned individuals have a larger risk aversion than risky individuals. To study the emergence of protective behaviours, we couple, to the epidemic evolution of a susceptible-infected-susceptible model, a decision game based on the perceived risk of infection. Using this framework, we find the effect of the protection strategy on the epidemic threshold for each of the two subpopulations (concerned and risky), and study under which conditions risky individuals are persuaded to protect themselves or, on the contrary, can take advantage of a herd immunity by remaining healthy without protecting themselves, thanks to the shield provided by concerned individuals., Comment: 11 pages, 9 figures

At the moment, urban mobility research and governmental initiatives are mostly focused on motor-related issues, e.g. the problems of congestion and pollution. And yet, we can not disregard the most vulnerable elements in the urban landscape: pedestrians, exposed to higher risks than other road users. Indeed, safe, accessible, and sustainable transport systems in cities are a core target of the UN's 2030 Agenda. Thus, there is an opportunity to apply advanced computational tools to the problem of traffic safety, in regards especially to pedestrians, who have been often overlooked in the past. This paper combines public data sources, large-scale street imagery and computer vision techniques to approach pedestrian and vehicle safety with an automated, relatively simple, and universally-applicable data-processing scheme. The steps involved in this pipeline include the adaptation and training of a Residual Convolutional Neural Network to determine a hazard index for each given urban scene, as well as an interpretability analysis based on image segmentation and class activation mapping on those same images. Combined, the outcome of this computational approach is a fine-grained map of hazard levels across a city, and an heuristic to identify interventions that might simultaneously improve pedestrian and vehicle safety. The proposed framework should be taken as a complement to the work of urban planners and public authorities.

Collective behavior plays a key role in the function of a wide range of physical, biological, and neurological systems where empirical evidence has recently uncovered the prevalence of higher-order interactions, i.e., structures that represent interactions between more than just two individual units, in complex network structures. Here, we study the optimization of collective behavior in networks with higher-order interactions encoded in clique complexes. Our approach involves adapting the Synchrony Alignment Function framework to a new composite Laplacian matrix that encodes multi-order interactions including, e.g., both dyadic and triadic couplings. We show that as higher-order coupling interactions are equitably strengthened, so that overall coupling is conserved, the optimal collective behavior improves. We find that this phenomenon stems from the broadening of a composite Laplacian's eigenvalue spectrum, which improves the optimal collective behavior and widens the range of possible behaviors. Moreover, we find in constrained optimization scenarios that a nontrivial, ideal balance between the relative strengths of pair-wise and higher-order interactions leads to the strongest collective behavior supported by a network. This work provides insight into how systems balance interactions of different types to optimize or broaden their dynamical range of behavior, especially for self-regulating systems like the brain.

We study the synchronized state in a population of network-coupled, heterogeneous oscillators. In particular, we show that the steady-state solution of the linearized dynamics may be written as a geometric series whose subsequent terms represent different spatial scales of the network. Namely, each addition term incorporates contributions from wider network neighborhoods. We prove that this geometric expansion converges for arbitrary frequency distributions and for both undirected and directed networks provided that the adjacency matrix is primitive. We also show that the error in the truncated series grows geometrically with the second largest eigenvalue of the normalized adjacency matrix, analogously to the rate of convergence to the stationary distribution of a random walk. Lastly, we derive a local approximation for the synchronized state by truncating the spatial series, at the first neighborhood term, to illustrate the practical advantages of our approach.

We study how homophily of human physical interactions affects the efficacy of digital proximity tracing. Analytical results show a non monotonous dependence of the reproduction number with respect to the mixing rate between individuals that adopt the contact tracing app and the ones that do not. Furthermore, we find regimes in which the attack rate has local optima, minima or monotonously varies with the mixing rate. We corroborate our findings with Monte Carlo simulations on a primary-school network. This study provides a mathematical basis to better understand how homophily in health behavior shapes the dynamics of epidemics.

Human mobility, contact patterns, and their interplay are key aspects of our social behavior that shape the spread of infectious diseases across different regions. In the light of new evidence and data sets about these two elements, epidemic models should be refined to incorporate both the heterogeneity of human contacts and the complexity of mobility patterns. Here, we propose a theoretical framework that allows accommodating these two aspects in the form of a set of Markovian equations. We validate these equations with extensive mechanistic simulations and derive analytically the epidemic threshold. The expression of this critical value allows us to evaluate its dependence on the specific demographic distribution, the structure of mobility flows, and the heterogeneity of contact patterns, thus shedding light on the microscopic mechanisms responsible for the epidemic detriment driven by recurrent mobility patterns reported in the literature., Comment: 24 pages, 7 figures

The emergence of order in collective dynamics is a fascinating phenomenon that characterizes many natural systems consisting of coupled entities. Synchronization is such an example where individuals, usually represented by either linear or nonlinear oscillators, can spontaneously act coherently with each other when the interactions' configuration fulfills certain conditions. However, synchronization is not always perfect, and the coexistence of coherent and incoherent oscillators, broadly known in the literature as chimera states, is also possible. Although several attempts have been made to explain how chimera states are created, their emergence, stability, and robustness remain a long-debated question. We propose an approach that aims to establish a robust mechanism through which chimeras originate. We first introduce a stability-breaking method where clusters of synchronized oscillators can emerge. Similarly, one or more clusters of oscillators may remain incoherent within yielding a particular class of patterns that we here name cluster chimera states.

In this work, we address the connection between population density centers in urban areas, and the nature of human flows between such centers, in shaping the vulnerability to the onset of contagious diseases. A study of 163 cities, chosen from four different continents reveals a universal trend, whereby the risk induced by human mobility increases in those cities where mobility flows are predominantly between high population density centers. We apply our formalism to the spread of SARS-COV-2 in the United States, providing a plausible explanation for the observed heterogeneity in the spreading process across cities. Armed with this insight, we propose realistic mitigation strategies (less severe than lockdowns), based on modifying the mobility in cities. Our results suggest that an optimal control strategy involves an asymmetric policy that restricts flows entering the most vulnerable areas but allowing residents to continue their usual mobility patterns., Comment: 22 pages, 4 figures. SI: 19 pages, 3 figures, 2 tables

Contagion processes have been proven to fundamentally depend on the structural properties of the interaction networks conveying them. Many real networked systems are characterized by clustered substructures representing either collections of all-to-all pair-wise interactions (cliques) and/or group interactions, involving many of their members at once. In this work, focusing on interaction structures represented as simplicial complexes, we present a discrete-time microscopic model of complex contagion for a susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics. Introducing a particular edge clique cover and a heuristic to find it, the model accounts for the higher-order dynamical correlations among the members of the substructures (cliques/simplices). The analytical computation of the critical point reveals that higher-order correlations are responsible for its dependence on the higher-order couplings. While such dependence eludes any mean-field model, the possibility of a bi-stable region is extended to structured populations., Comment: 26 pages, 10 figures

After the blockade that many nations suffered to stop the growth of the incidence curve of COVID-19 during the first half of 2020, they face the challenge of resuming their social and economic activity. The rapid airborne transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2, and the absence of a vaccine, calls for active containment measures to avoid the propagation of transmission chains. The best strategy up to date, popularly known as Test-Track-Treat (TTT), consist in testing the population for diagnosis, track the contacts of those infected, and treat by quarantine all these cases. The dynamical process that better describes the combined action of the former mechanisms is that of a contagion process that competes with the spread of the pathogen, cutting off potential contagion pathways. Here we propose a compartmental model that couples the dynamics of the infection with the contact tracing and isolation of cases. We develop an analytical expression for the effective case reproduction number $R_c(t)$ that reveals the role of contact tracing in the mitigation and suppression of the epidemics. We show that there is a trade off between the infection propagation and the isolation of cases. If the isolation is limited to symptomatic individuals only, the incidence curve can be flattened but not bended. However, if contact tracing is applied to asymptomatic individuals too, the strategy can bend the curve and suppress the epidemics. Quantitative results are dependent on the network topology. We quantify, the most important indicator of the effectiveness of contact tracing, namely its capacity to reverse the increasing tendency of the epidemic curve, causing its bending., Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures, 2 tables. To appear in Physical Review Research

We study the dynamics of coupled oscillator networks with higher-order interactions and their ability to store information. In particular, the fixed points of these oscillator systems consist of two clusters of oscillators that become entrained at opposite phases, mapping easily to information more commonly represented by sequences of 0's and 1's. While $2^N$ such fixed point states exist in a system of $N$ oscillators, we find that a relatively small fraction of these are stable, as chosen by the network topology. To understand the memory selection of such oscillator networks, we derive a stability criterion to identify precisely which states are stable, i.e., which pieces of information are supported by the network. We also investigate the process by which the system can switch between different stable states when a random perturbation is applied that may force the system into the basin of attraction of another stable state.

With the hit of new pandemic threats, scientific frameworks are needed to understand the unfolding of the epidemic. The use of mobile apps that are able to trace contacts is of utmost importance in order to control new infected cases and contain further propagation. Here we present a theoretical approach using both percolation and message--passing techniques, to the role of contact tracing, in mitigating an epidemic wave. We show how the increase of the app adoption level raises the value of the epidemic threshold, which is eventually maximized when high-degree nodes are preferentially targeted. Analytical results are compared with extensive Monte Carlo simulations showing good agreement for both homogeneous and heterogeneous networks. These results are important to quantify the level of adoption needed for contact-tracing apps to be effective in mitigating an epidemic., Comment: (5 pages,4 figures +SM)

Many real systems are strongly characterized by collective cooperative phenomena whose existence and properties still need a satisfactory explanation. Coherently with their collective nature, they call for new and more accurate descriptions going beyond pairwise models, such as graphs, in which all the interactions are considered as involving only two individuals at a time. Hypergraphs respond to this need, providing a mathematical representation of a system allowing from pairs to larger groups. In this work, through the use of different hypergraphs, we study how group interactions influence the evolution of cooperation in a structured population, by analyzing the evolutionary dynamics of the public goods game. Here we show that, likewise network reciprocity, group interactions also promote cooperation. More importantly, by means of an invasion analysis in which the conditions for a strategy to survive are studied, we show how, in heterogeneously-structured populations, reciprocity among players is expected to grow with the increasing of the order of the interactions. This is due to the heterogeneity of connections and, particularly, to the presence of individuals standing out as hubs in the population. Our analysis represents a first step towards the study of evolutionary dynamics through higher-order interactions, and gives insights into why cooperation in heterogeneous higher-order structures is enhanced. Lastly, it also gives clues about the co-existence of cooperative and non-cooperative behaviors related to the structural properties of the interaction patterns., Comment: 24 pages, 11 figures

Recent studies on network geometry, a way of describing network structures as geometrical objects, are revolutionizing our way to understand dynamical processes on networked systems. Here, we cope with the problem of epidemic spreading, using the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model, in simplicial complexes. In particular, we analyze the dynamics of SIS in complex networks characterized by pairwise interactions (links), and three-body interactions (filled triangles, also known as 2-simplices). This higher-order description of the epidemic spreading is analytically formulated using a microscopic Markov chain approximation. The analysis of the fixed point solutions of the model, reveal an interesting phase transition that becomes abrupt with the infectivity parameter of the 2-simplices. Our results pave the way for network theorists to advance in our physical understanding of epidemic spreading in real scenarios where diseases are transmitted among groups as well as among pairs, and to better understand the behaviour of dynamical processes in simplicial complexes., Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures. To appear in Physical Review Research

Human behavioral responses play an important role in the impact of disease outbreaks and yet they are often overlooked in epidemiological models. Understanding to what extent behavioral changes determine the outcome of spreading epidemics is essential to design effective intervention policies. Here we explore, analytically, the interplay between the personal decision to protect oneself from infection and the spreading of an epidemic. We do so by coupling a decision game based on the perceived risk of infection with a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model. Interestingly, we find that the simple decision on whether to protect oneself is enough to modify the course of the epidemics, by generating sustained steady oscillations in the prevalence. We deem these oscillations detrimental, and propose two intervention policies aimed at modifying behavioral patterns to help alleviate them. Surprisingly, we find that pulsating campaigns, compared to continuous ones, are more effective in diminishing such oscillations., Comment: 19 pages, 6 figures

Human mobility plays a key role on the transformation of local disease outbreaks into global pandemics. Thus, the inclusion of human movements into epidemic models has become mandatory for understanding current epidemic episodes and to design efficient prevention policies. Following this challenge, here we develop a Markovian framework which enables to address the impact of recurrent mobility patterns on the epidemic onset at different temporal scales. This formalism is validated by comparing their predictions with results from mechanistic simulations. The fair agreement between both theory and simulations enables to get an analytical expression for the epidemic threshold which captures the critical conditions triggering epidemic outbreaks. Finally, by performing an exhaustive analysis of this epidemic threshold, we reveal that the impact of tuning human mobility on the emergence of diseases is strongly affected by the temporal scales associated to both epidemiological and mobility processes., Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures

Synchronization processes play critical roles in the functionality of a wide range of both natural and man-made systems. Recent work in physics and neuroscience highlights the importance of higher-order interactions between dynamical units, i.e., three- and four-way interactions in addition to pairwise interactions, and their role in shaping collective behavior. Here we show that higher-order interactions between coupled phase oscillators, encoded microscopically in a simplicial complex, give rise to added nonlinearity in the macroscopic system dynamics that induces abrupt synchronization transitions via hysteresis and bistability of synchronized and incoherent states. Moreover, these higher-order interactions can stabilize strongly synchronized states even when the pairwise coupling is repulsive. These findings reveal a self-organized phenomenon that may be responsible for the rapid switching to synchronization in many biological and other systems that exhibit synchronization without the need of particular correlation mechanisms between the oscillators and the topological structure.

The emergence of large-scale connectivity and synchronization are crucial to the structure, function and failure of many complex socio-technical networks. Thus, there is great interest in analyzing phase transitions to large-scale connectivity and to global synchronization, including how to enhance or delay the onset. These phenomena are traditionally studied as second-order phase transitions where, at the critical threshold, the order parameter increases rapidly but continuously. In 2009, an extremely abrupt transition was found for a network growth process where links compete for addition in attempt to delay percolation. This observation of "explosive percolation" was ultimately revealed to be a continuous transition in the thermodynamic limit, yet with very atypical finite-size scaling, and it started a surge of work on explosive phenomena and their consequences. Many related models are now shown to yield discontinuous percolation transitions and even hybrid transitions. Explosive percolation enables many other features such as multiple giant components, modular structures, discrete scale invariance and non-self-averaging, relating to properties found in many real phenomena such as explosive epidemics, electric breakdowns and the emergence of molecular life. Models of explosive synchronization provide an analytic framework for the dynamics of abrupt transitions and reveal the interplay between the distribution in natural frequencies and the network structure, with applications ranging from epileptic seizures to waking from anesthesia. Here we review the vast literature on explosive phenomena and synthesize the fundamental connections between models and survey the application areas. We attempt to classify explosive phenomena based on underlying mechanisms and to provide a coherent overview and perspective for future research to address the many vital questions that remained unanswered., Comment: Accepted to Advances in Physics, Review article, 82 pages, 44 figures

Collective behavior in large ensembles of dynamical units with non-pairwise interactions may play an important role in several systems ranging from brain function to social networks. Despite recent work pointing to simplicial structure, i.e., higher-order interactions between three or more units at a time, their dynamical characteristics remain poorly understood. Here we present an analysis of the collective dynamics of such a simplicial system, namely coupled phase oscillators with three-way interactions. The simplicial structure gives rise to a number of novel phenomena, most notably a continuum of abrupt desynchronization transitions with no abrupt synchronization transition counterpart, as well as, extensive multistability whereby infinitely many stable partially synchronized states exist. Our analysis sheds light on the complexity that can arise in physical systems with simplicial interactions like the human brain and the role that simplicial interactions play in storing information.

With the advent of the big data era, generative models of complex networks are becoming elusive from direct computational simulation. We present an exact, linear-algebraic reduction scheme of generative models of networks. By exploiting the bilinear structure of the matrix representation of the generative model, we separate its null eigenspace, and reduce the exact description of the generative model to a smaller vector space. After reduction, we group generative models in universality classes according to their rank and metric signature, and work out, in a computationally affordable way, their relevant properties (e.g., spectrum). The reduction also provides the environment for a simplified computation of their properties. The proposed scheme works for any generative model admitting a matrix representation, and will be very useful in the study of dynamical processes on networks, as well as in the understanding of generative models to come, according to the provided classification., Comment: 24 pages, 2 figures

Shortest paths are representative of discrete geodesic distances in graphs, and many descriptors of networks depend on their counting. In multiplex networks, this counting is radically important to quantify the switch between layers and it has crucial implications in the transportation efficiency and congestion processes. Here we present a mathematical approach to the computation of the joint distribution of distance and multiplicity (degeneration) of shortest paths in multiplex networks, and exploit its relation to congestion processes. The results allow to approximate semi-analytically the onset of congestion in multiplex networks as a function of the congestion of its layers., Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures. To appear in New Journal of Physics

Percolation is a fundamental concept that brought new understanding on the robustness properties of complex systems. Here we consider percolation on weakly interacting networks, that is, network layers coupled together by much less interlinks than the connections within each layer. For these kinds of structures, both continuous and abrupt phase transition are observed in the size of the giant component. The continuous (second-order) transition corresponds to the formation of a giant cluster inside one layer, and has a well defined percolation threshold. The abrupt transition instead corresponds to the merger of coexisting giant clusters among different layers, and is characterised by a remarkable uncertainty in the percolation threshold, which in turns causes an anomalous trend in the observed susceptibility. We develop a simple mathematical model able to describe this phenomenon and to estimate the critical threshold for which the abrupt transition is more likely to occur. Remarkably, finite-size scaling analysis in the abrupt region supports the hypothesis of a genuine first-order phase transition.

The networked structure of contacts shapes the spreading of epidemic processes. Recent advances on network theory have improved our understanding of the epidemic processes at large scale. The relevance of several considerations still needs to be evaluated in the study of epidemic spreading. One of them is that of accounting for the influence of origin and destination patterns in the flow of the carriers of an epidemic. Here we compute origin-destination patterns compatible with empirical data of coarse grained flows in the air transportation network. We study the incidence of epidemic processes in a metapopulation approach considering different alternatives to the flows prior knowledge. The data-driven scenario where the estimation of origin and destination flows is considered turns out to be relevant to assess the impact of the epidemics at a microscopic level (in our scenario, which populations are infected). However, this information is irrelevant to assess its macroscopic incidence (fraction of infected populations). These results are of interest to implement even better computational platforms to forecast epidemic incidence., Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures. To appear in Scientific Reports

Multipartite viruses replicate through a puzzling evolutionary strategy. Their genome is segmented into two or more parts, and encapsidated in separate particles that appear to propagate independently. Completing the replication cycle, however, requires the full genome, so that a systemic infection of a host requires the concurrent presence of several particles. This represents an apparent evolutionary drawback of multipartitism, while its advantages remain unclear. A transition from monopartite to multipartite viral forms has been described in vitro under conditions of high multiplicity of infection, suggesting that cooperation between defective mutants is a plausible evolutionary pathway towards multipartitism. However, it is unknown how the putative advantages that multipartitism might enjoy at the microscopic level affect its epidemiology, or if an explicit advantange is needed to explain its ecological persistence. To disentangle which mechanisms might contribute to the rise and fixation of multipartitism, we investigate the interaction between viral spreading dynamics and host population structure. We set up a compartmental model of the spread of a virus in its different forms and explore its epidemiology using both analytical and numerical techniques. We uncover that the impact of host contact structure on spreading dynamics entails a rich phenomenology of ecological relationships that includes cooperation, competition, and commensality. We find that multipartitism might rise to fixation even in the absence of explicit microscopic advantages. Multipartitism allows the virus to colonize environments that could not be invaded by the monopartite form, facilitated by homogeneous contacts among hosts. We conjecture that these features might have led to an increase in the diversity and prevalence of multipartite viral forms concomitantly with the expansion of agricultural practices., Comment: 27 pages, 4 figures, 1 table

Many real-world systems can be modeled as interconnected multilayer networks, namely a set of networks interacting with each other. Here we present a perturbative approach to study the properties of a general class of interconnected networks as inter-network interactions are established. We reveal multiple structural transitions for the algebraic connectivity of such systems, between regimes in which each network layer keeps its independent identity or drives diffusive processes over the whole system, thus generalizing previous results reporting a single transition point. Furthermore we show that, at first order in perturbation theory, the growth of the algebraic connectivity of each layer depends only on the degree configuration of the interaction network (projected on the respective Fiedler vector), and not on the actual interaction topology. Our findings can have important implications in the design of robust interconnected networked system, particularly in the presence of network layers whose integrity is more crucial for the functioning of the entire system. We finally show results of perturbation theory applied to the adjacency matrix of the interconnected network, which can be useful to characterize percolation processes on such systems.

Complex networks are the representative graphs of interactions in many complex systems. Usually, these interactions are abstractions of the communication/diffusion channels between the units of the system. Real complex networks, e.g. traffic networks, reveal different operation phases governed by the dynamical stress of the system. Here we show how, communicability, a topological descriptor that reveals the efficiency of the network functionality in terms of these diffusive paths, could be used to reveal the transitions mentioned. By considering a vibrational model of nodes and edges in a graph/network at a given temperature (stress), we show that the communicability function plays the role of the thermal Green's function of a network of harmonic oscillators. After, we prove analytically the existence of a universal phase transition in the communicability structure of every simple graph. This transition resembles the melting process occurring in solids. For instance, regular-like graphs resembling crystals, melts at lower temperatures and display a sharper transition between connected to disconnected structures than the random spatial graphs, which resemble amorphous solids. Finally, we study computationally this graph melting process in some real-world networks and observe that the rate of melting of graphs changes either as an exponential or as a power-law with the inverse temperature. At the local level we discover that the main driver for node melting is the eigenvector centrality of the corresponding node, particularly when the critical value of the inverse temperature approaches zero. These universal results sheds light on many dynamical diffusive-like processes on networks that present transitions as traffic jams, communication lost or failure cascades., Comment: 39 pages, 11 figures

We propose a theoretical framework for the study of epidemics in structured metapopulations, with heterogeneous agents, subjected to recurrent mobility patterns. We propose to represent the heterogeneity in the composition of the metapopulations as layers in a multiplex network, where nodes would correspond to geographical areas and layers account for the mobility patterns of agents of the same class. We analyze both the classical Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible and the Susceptible-Infected-Removed epidemic models within this framework, and compare macroscopic and microscopic indicators of the spreading process with extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our results are in excellent agreement with the simulations. We also derive an exact expression of the epidemic threshold on this general framework revealing a non-trivial dependence on the mobility parameter. Finally, we use this new formalism to address the spread of diseases in real cities, specifically in the city of Medellin, Colombia, whose population is divided into six socio-economic classes, each one identified with a layer in this multiplex formalism., Comment: 13 pages, 11 figures

Synchronization processes are ubiquitous despite the many connectivity patterns that complex systems can show. Usually, the emergence of synchrony is a macroscopic observable, however, the microscopic details of the system, as e.g. the underlying network of interactions, is many times partially or totally unknown. We already know that different interaction structures can give rise to a common functionality, understood as a common macroscopic observable. Building upon this fact, here, we propose network transformations that keep the collective behavior of a large system of Kuramoto oscillators functionally invariant. We derive a method based on information theory principles, that allows us to adjust the weights of the structural interactions to map random homogeneous -in degree- networks into random heterogeneous networks and vice-versa, keeping synchronization values invariant. The results of the proposed transformations reveal an interesting principle; heterogeneous networks can be mapped to homogeneous ones with local information, but the reverse process needs to exploit higher-order information. The formalism provides new analytical insight to tackle real complex scenarios when dealing with uncertainty in the measurements of the underlying connectivity structure., Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures