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Global change imposes multiple challenges on species and, thus, a reliable prediction of current and future vulnerability of species must consider multiple stressors and intrinsic traits of species. Climate, physiology, and forest cover, for example, are required to evaluate threat to thermolabile forest-dependent species, such as sloths (Bradypus spp.; Mammalia: Xenarthra). Here, we estimated future changes in the distribution of three sloth species using a metabolic-hybrid model focused on climate (climatic only, i.e., CO approach) and adding forest cover constraints to distribution of species (climate plus land cover, i.e., CL approach). We used an innovative method to generate estimates of physiological parameters for endotherms, validated with field data. The CF approach predicted a future net expansion of distribution of B. torquatus and B. variegatus, and a future net contraction of distribution of B. tridactylus. The inclusion of forest cover constraints, however, reversed the predictions for B. torquatus, with a predicted net distribution contraction. It also reduced expansion of B. variegatus, although still showing a large net expansion. Thus, B. variegatus is not predicted to be threatened in the future; B. tridactylus emerges as the species most vulnerable to climate change, but with no considerable forest losses, while B. torquatus shows the opposite pattern. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating multiple stressors in predictive models in general. To increase resilience of species to climate change, it is key to control deforestation in the Amazon for B. tridactylus, and to promote reforestation in the Atlantic Forest for B. torquatus.

Physiological concepts and tools can help us to understand why organisms and populations respond to habitat fragmentation in the way they do, and allow us to determine the mechanisms or individual characteristics underlying this differential sensitivity. Here, we examine food intake, relative medullary thickness and distribution/expression of water channel aquaporin-1 in three species of South American rodents that have been reported to have different levels of tolerance to habitat fragmentation (Akodon montensis, Oligoryzomys nigripes, and Euryoryzomys russatus), using a classic water deprivation experiment to assess their abilities to cope with water shortage. We believe the mechanisms underlying this differential sensitivity are related to the organisms' capacities to maintain water balance, and therefore the species more tolerant to habitat fragmentation (A. montensis and O. nigripes) should have a higher capacity to maintain water balance. We found that A. montensis and O. nigripes were more tolerant to water deprivation than E. russatus, and this difference appears to be unrelated to differences in food ingestion rate. O. nigripes showed the highest values for RMT, followed by A. montensis and E. russatus. However all species showed RMT values that were 2.2% to 14.1% below the lower prediction limit when compared to other rodents through allometric relationships. Water deprivation seems to trigger changes in the distribution of aquaporin-1, mostly for O. nigripes and E. russatus, which may contribute to water balance maintenance. Our data suggest that these intrinsic physiological differences among these species could provide a mechanism for their differential tolerance of habitat fragmentation. J. Exp. Zool. 323A: 731-744, 2015. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.