Search

Understanding extreme precipitation events (EPEs) and their underlying dynamical processes and moisture transport patterns is essential to mitigating EPE-related risks. In this study, we investigate the dynamics of 82 EPEs (≥100 mm d -1) over the territory of Ukraine in the recent decades (1979–2019), of which the majority occurred in summer. The EPEs are identified based on precipitation observations from 215 meteorological stations and posts in Ukraine. The atmospheric variables for the case study analysis of selected EPEs and for climatological composites and trajectory calculations were taken from ERA5 reanalyses. Moisture sources contributing to the EPEs in Ukraine are identified with kinematic backward trajectories and the subsequent application of a moisture source identification scheme based on the humidity mass budget along these trajectories. The large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with EPEs was studied for a selection of representative EPEs in all seasons and with the aid of composites of all events per season. Results show that EPEs in summer occur all across Ukraine, but in other seasons EPE hotspots are mainly in the Carpathians and along the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. All EPEs were associated with a surface cyclone, with most having an upper-level trough, except for the winter events that occurred in situations with very strong westerly jets. Isentropic potential vorticity anomalies associated with EPEs in Ukraine show clear dipole structures in all seasons, however, interestingly with a different orientation of these anomaly dipoles between seasons. The analysis of moisture sources revealed a very strong case-to-case variability and often a combination of local and remote sources. Oceanic sources dominate in winter, but land evapotranspiration accounts for 60 %–80 % of the moisture that rains out in EPEs in the other seasons. Taken together, these findings provide a novel insight into large-scale characteristics of EPEs in Ukraine, a region with a unique geographical setting and with moisture sources as diverse as Newfoundland, the Azores, the Caspian Sea, and the Arctic Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dry Sahara was potentially wetter in the past during the warm African Humid Period. Although debated, this climatic shift is a possible scenario in a future warmer climate. One major line of evidence reported for past green periods in the Sahara is the presence of paleo-lakes. Even today, Saharan desert lakes get filled from time to time. However, very little is known about these events due to the lack of available in-situ observations. In addition, the hydrometeorological conditions associated with these events have never been systematically investigated. This study proposes to fill this knowledge gap by examining the meteorology of lake-filling episodes (LFEs) of Sebkha el Melah – a commonly dry lake in the northwestern Sahara. Heavy precipitation events (HPEs) and LFEs are identified using a combination of precipitation observations and lake volume estimates derived from satellite remote sensing. Weather reanalysis data is used together with three-dimensional trajectory calculations to investigate the moisture sources and characteristics of weather systems that lead to HPEs and to assess the conditions necessary for producing LFEs. Results show that hundreds of HPEs occurred between 2000 and 2021, but only 6 LFEs eventuate. The ratio between the increase in lake water volume during LFEs and precipitation volume during the HPEs that triggered the lake-filling, known as the runoff coefficient, provides a very useful characteristic to assess storm impacts on water availability. For the 6 LFEs investigated in this study, the runoff coefficient ranges across five orders of magnitude and is much smaller than the figures often cited in the literature for the Sahara. We find that LFEs are generated most frequently in autumn by the most intense HPEs, for which the key ingredients are (i) the formation of surface extratropical cyclones to the west of the Atlantic Sahara coastline in interplay with upper-level troughs and lows, (ii) moisture convergence from the tropics and the extratropical North Atlantic, (iii) a premoistening of the region upstream of the catchment over the Sahara through a recycling-domino-process, (iv) coupled or sequential lifting processes (e.g., orographic lifting and large-scale forcing), and (v) the stationarity of synoptic systems that result in long-duration (typically 3 d) HPEs. Based on the insights gained into Saharan LFEs in the present-day climate, we suggest that the initial filling and persistence of Saharan lakes may be related to changes in the intensity and frequency of HPEs, rather than a change to mean precipitation alone. Future studies can leverage these insights to better assess the mechanisms involved in the greening of the Sahara in the past and also in a warmer future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding extreme precipitation events (EPEs) and their underlying dynamical processes and moisture transport patterns is essential to mitigate EPE-related risks. In this study, we investigate the dynamics of 75 EPEs (≥ 100 mm day-1) over the territory of Ukraine in the recent decades (1979–2019), of which the majority occurred in summer. The EPEs are identified based on precipitation observations from 215 meteorological stations and posts in Ukraine. The atmospheric variables for the case study analysis of selected EPEs and for climatological composites and trajectory calculations were taken from ERA5 reanalyses. Moisture sources contributing to the EPEs in Ukraine are identified with kinematic backward trajectories and the subsequent application of a moisture source identification scheme based on the humidity mass budget along these trajectories. The large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with EPEs was studied for a selection of representative EPEs in all seasons and with the aid of composites of all events per season. Results show that EPEs in summer occur all across Ukraine, but in other seasons EPE hotspots are mainly in the Carpathians and along the Black and Azov Seas. All EPEs were associated with a surface cyclone, and most with an upper-level trough, except for the winter events that occurred in situations with very strong westerly jets. Isentropic potential vorticity anomalies associated with EPEs in Ukraine show clear dipole structures in all seasons, however, interestingly with a different orientation of these anomaly dipoles between seasons. The analysis of moisture sources revealed a very strong case-to-case variability and often a combination of local and remote sources. Oceanic sources dominate in winter, but land evapotranspiration accounts for 60–80 % of the moisture that rains out in EPEs in the other seasons. Taken together, these findings provide novel insight into large-scale characteristics of EPE in Ukraine, in a region with a unique geographical setting and with moisture sources as diverse as Newfoundland, the Azores, the Caspian Sea, and the Arctic ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heavy precipitation events (HPEs) can lead to deadly and costly natural disasters and are critical to the hydrological budget in regions where rainfall variability is high and water resources depend on individual storms. Thus, reliable projections of such events in the future are needed. To provide high‐resolution projections under the RCP8.5 scenario for HPEs at the end of the 21st century, and to understand the changes in sub‐hourly to daily rainfall patterns, weather research and forecasting (WRF) model simulations of 41 historic HPEs in the eastern Mediterranean are compared with "pseudo global warming" simulations of the same events. This paper presents the changes in rainfall patterns in future storms, decomposed into storms' mean conditional rain rate, duration, and area. A major decrease in rainfall accumulation (−30% averaged across events) is found throughout future HPEs. This decrease results from a substantial reduction of the rain area of storms (−40%) and occurs despite an increase in the mean conditional rain intensity (+15%). The duration of the HPEs decreases (−9%) in future simulations. Regionally maximal 10‐min rain rates increase (+22%), whereas over most of the region, long‐duration rain rates decrease. The consistency of results across events, driven by varying synoptic conditions, suggests that these changes have low sensitivity to the specific synoptic evolution during the events. Future HPEs in the eastern Mediterranean will therefore likely be drier and more spatiotemporally concentrated, with substantial implications on hydrological outcomes of storms. Plain Language Summary: Heavy precipitation events are large storms that can recharge freshwater reservoirs, but can also lead to hazardous outcomes such as flash floods. Therefore, understanding the impacts of climate change on such storms is critical. Here, a weather model similar to those used in weather forecasts is used to simulate heavy precipitation events in the eastern Mediterranean. A large collection of storms is simulated in pairs: (a) historic storms, selected for their high impact, and (b) the same storms placed in a global warming scenario projected for the end of the 21st century. Using these simulations we ask how present‐day storms would look like were they to occur at the warmer end of the 21st century. The future storms are found to produce much less rainfall compared to their historic counterparts. This decrease in rainfall is attributed mainly to the reduction in the area covered by storms' rainfall, and happens despite increasing rainfall intensities. These results suggest that the region will be drier in the future with larger dry areas during storms; however, over short durations, it would rain more intensely over contracted areas–increasing local hazards associated with heavy precipitation events. Key Points: End of 21st century heavy precipitation events in the eastern Mediterranean are projected to have substantially reduced rainfall yieldThis reduction results mainly from a major decrease in rain area during future events, despite increased conditional rain rateChanges in rain yield, rate, and area are consistent across many events, suggesting significant hydrological implications for the region [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]