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1. Global, regional, and national cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-Adjusted life-years for 29 cancer groups, 1990 to 2017: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study

Author

Fitzmaurice, C. Abate, D. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdel-Rahman, O. Abdelalim, A. Abdoli, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulle, A.S.M. Abebe, N.D. Abraha, H.N. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abualhasan, A. Adedeji, I.A. Advani, S.M. Afarideh, M. Afshari, M. Aghaali, M. Agius, D. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadian, E. Ahmadpour, E. Ahmed, M.B. Akbari, M.E. Akinyemiju, T. Al-Aly, Z. Alabdulkader, A.M. Alahdab, F. Alam, T. Alamene, G.M. Alemnew, B.T.T. Alene, K.A. Alinia, C. Alipour, V. Aljunid, S.M. Bakeshei, F.A. Almadi, M.A.H. Almasi-Hashiani, A. Alsharif, U. Alsowaidi, S. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amini, E. Amini, S. Amoako, Y.A. Anbari, Z. Anber, N.H. Andrei, C.L. Anjomshoa, M. Ansari, F. Ansariadi, A. Appiah, S.C.Y. Arab-Zozani, M. Arabloo, J. Arefi, Z. Aremu, O. Areri, H.A. Artaman, A. Asayesh, H. Asfaw, E.T. Ashagre, A.F. Assadi, R. Ataeinia, B. Atalay, H.T. Ataro, Z. Atique, S. Ausloos, M. Avila-Burgos, L. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Awoke, N. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayanore, M.A. Ayele, H.T. Babaee, E. Bacha, U. Badawi, A. Bagherzadeh, M. Bagli, E. Balakrishnan, S. Balouchi, A. Barnighausen, T.W. Battista, R.J. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Bekele, B.B. Belay, Y.B. Belayneh, Y.M. Berfield, K.K.S. Berhane, A. Bernabe, E. Beuran, M. Bhakta, N. Bhattacharyya, K. Biadgo, B. Bijani, A. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Birungi, C. Bisignano, C. Bitew, H. Bjorge, T. Bleyer, A. Bogale, K.A. Bojia, H.A. Borzi, A.M. Bosetti, C. Bou-Orm, I.R. Brenner, H. Brewer, J.D. Briko, A.N. Briko, N.I. Bustamante-Teixeira, M.T. Butt, Z.A. Carreras, G. Carrero, J.J. Carvalho, F. Castro, C. Castro, F. Catala-Lopez, F. Cerin, E. Chaiah, Y. Chanie, W.F. Chattu, V.K. Chaturvedi, P. Chauhan, N.S. Chehrazi, M. Chiang, P.P.-C. Chichiabellu, T.Y. Chido-Amajuoyi, O.G. Chimed-Ochir, O. Choi, J.-Y.J. Christopher, D.J. Chu, D.-T. Constantin, M.-M. Costa, V.M. Crocetti, E. Crowe, C.S. Curado, M.P. Dahlawi, S.M.A. Damiani, G. Darwish, A.H. Daryani, A. Das Neves, J. Demeke, F.M. Demis, A.B. Demissie, B.W. Demoz, G.T. Denova-Gutierrez, E. Derakhshani, A. Deribe, K.S. Desai, R. Desalegn, B.B. Desta, M. Dey, S. Dharmaratne, S.D. Dhimal, M. Diaz, D. Dinberu, M.T.T. Djalalinia, S. Doku, D.T. Drake, T.M. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Ebrahimi, H. Effiong, A. Eftekhari, A. El Sayed, I. Zaki, M.E.S. El-Jaafary, S.I. El-Khatib, Z. Elemineh, D.A. Elkout, H. Ellenbogen, R.G. Elsharkawy, A. Emamian, M.H. Endalew, D.A. Endries, A.Y. Eshrati, B. Fadhil, I. Fallah, V. Faramarzi, M. Farhangi, M.A. Farioli, A. Farzadfar, F. Fentahun, N. Fernandes, E. Feyissa, G.T. Filip, I. Fischer, F. Fisher, J.L. Force, L.M. Foroutan, M. Freitas, M. Fukumoto, T. Futran, N.D. Gallus, S. Gankpe, F.G. Gayesa, R.T. Gebrehiwot, T.T. Gebremeskel, G.G. Gedefaw, G.A. Gelaw, B.K. Geta, B. Getachew, S. Gezae, K.E. Ghafourifard, M. Ghajar, A. Ghashghaee, A. Gholamian, A. Gill, P.S. Ginindza, T.T.G. Girmay, A. Gizaw, M. Gomez, R.S. Gopalani, S.V. Gorini, G. Goulart, B.N.G. Grada, A. Ribeiro Guerra, M. Guimaraes, A.L.S. Gupta, P.C. Gupta, R. Hadkhale, K. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Hanfore, L.K. Haro, J.M. Hasankhani, M. Hasanzadeh, A. Hassen, H.Y. Hay, R.J. Hay, S.I. Henok, A. Henry, N.J. Herteliu, C. Hidru, H.D. Hoang, C.L. Hole, M.K. Hoogar, P. Horita, N. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseini, M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, M. Hostiuc, S. Househ, M. Hussen, M.M. Ileanu, B. Ilic, M.D. Innos, K. Irvani, S.S.N. Iseh, K.R. Islam, S.M.S. Islami, F. Jafari Balalami, N. Jafarinia, M. Jahangiry, L. Jahani, M.A. Jahanmehr, N. Jakovljevic, M. James, S.L. Javanbakht, M. Jayaraman, S. Jee, S.H. Jenabi, E. Jha, R.P. Jonas, J.B. Jonnagaddala, J. Joo, T. Jungari, S.B. Jurisson, M. Kabir, A. Kamangar, F. Karch, A. Karimi, N. Karimian, A. Kasaeian, A. Kasahun, G.G. Kassa, B. Kassa, T.D. Kassaw, M.W. Kaul, A. Keiyoro, P.N. Kelbore, A.G. Kerbo, A.A. Khader, Y.S. Khalilarjmandi, M. Khan, E.A. Khan, G. Khang, Y.-H. Khatab, K. Khater, A. Khayamzadeh, M. Khazaee-Pool, M. Khazaei, S. Khoja, A.T. Khosravi, M.H. Khubchandani, J. Kianipour, N. Kim, D. Kim, Y.J. Kisa, A. Kisa, S. Kissimova-Skarbek, K. Komaki, H. Koyanagi, A. Krohn, K.J. Bicer, B.K. Kugbey, N. Kumar, V. Kuupiel, D. La Vecchia, C. Lad, D.P. Lake, E.A. Lakew, A.M. Lal, D.K. Lami, F.H. Lan, Q. Lasrado, S. Lauriola, P. Lazarus, J.V. Leigh, J. Leshargie, C.T. Liao, Y. Limenih, M.A. Listl, S. Lopez, A.D. Lopukhov, P.D. Lunevicius, R. Madadin, M. Magdeldin, S. El Razek, H.M.A. Majeed, A. Maleki, A. Malekzadeh, R. Manafi, A. Manafi, N. Manamo, W.A. Mansourian, M. Mansournia, M.A. Mantovani, L.G. Maroufizadeh, S. Martini, S.M.S. Mashamba-Thompson, T.P. Massenburg, B.B. Maswabi, M.T. Mathur, M.R. McAlinden, C. McKee, M. Meheretu, H.A.A. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, V. Meier, T. Melaku, Y.A. Meles, G.G. Meles, H.G. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Mendoza, W. Menezes, R.G. Merat, S. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Mihretie, K.M.M. Miller, T.R. Mills, E.J. Mir, S.M. Mirzaei, H. Mirzaei, H.R. Mishra, R. Moazen, B. Mohammad, D.K. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammad, Y. Darwesh, A.M. Mohammadbeigi, A. Mohammadi, H. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadian, M. Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A. Mohammadoo-Khorasani, M. Mohammadpourhodki, R. Mohammed, A.S. Mohammed, J.A. Mohammed, S. Mohebi, F. Mokdad, A.H. Monasta, L. Moodley, Y. Moosazadeh, M. Moossavi, M. Moradi, G. Moradi-Joo, M. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradpour, F. Morawska, L. Morgado-Da-costa, J. Morisaki, N. Morrison, S.D. Mosapour, A. Mousavi, S.M. Muche, A.A. Muhammed, O.S.S. Musa, J. Nabhan, A.R. Naderi, M. Nagarajan, A.J. Nagel, G. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Najafi, F. Naldi, L. Nam, H.S. Nasiri, N. Nazari, J. Negoi, I. Neupane, S. Newcomb, P.A. Nggada, H.A. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, C.T. Nikniaz, L. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nirayo, Y.L. Nixon, M.R. Nnaji, C.A. Nojomi, M. Nosratnejad, S. Shiadeh, M.N. Obsa, M.S. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Oluwasanu, M.M. Omonisi, A.E. Onwujekwe, O.E. Oommen, A.M. Oren, E. Ortega-Altamirano, D.D.V. Ota, E. Otstavnov, S.S. Owolabi, M.O. P A, M. Padubidri, J.R. Pakhale, S. Pakpour, A.H. Pana, A. Park, E.-K. Parsian, H. Pashaei, T. Patel, S. Patil, S.T. Pennini, A. Pereira, D.M. Piccinelli, C. Pillay, J.D. Pirestani, M. Pishgar, F. Postma, M.J. Pourjafar, H. Pourmalek, F. Pourshams, A. Prakash, S. Prasad, N. Qorbani, M. Rabiee, M. Rabiee, N. Radfar, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi, M. Rahman, M.A. Rajati, F. Rana, S.M. Raoofi, S. Rath, G.K. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, S. Reiner, R.C. Renzaho, A.M.N. Rezaei, N. Rezapour, A. Ribeiro, A.I. Ribeiro, D. Ronfani, L. Roro, E.M. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Saad, R.S. Sabbagh, P. Sabour, S. Saddik, B. Safiri, S. Sahebkar, A. Salahshoor, M.R. Salehi, F. Salem, H. Salem, M.R. Salimzadeh, H. Salomon, J.A. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Sartorius, B. Sarveazad, A. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Savic, M. Sawhney, M. Sayyah, M. Schneider, I.J.C. Schottker, B. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Sepehrimanesh, M. Seyedmousavi, S. Shaahmadi, F. Shabaninejad, H. Shahbaz, M. Shaikh, M.A. Shamshirian, A. Shamsizadeh, M. Sharafi, H. Sharafi, Z. Sharif, M. Sharifi, A. Sharifi, H. Sharma, R. Sheikh, A. Shirkoohi, R. Shukla, S.R. Si, S. Siabani, S. Silva, D.A.S. Silveira, D.G.A. Singh, A. Singh, J.A. Sisay, S. Sitas, F. Sobngwi, E. Soofi, M. Soriano, J.B. Stathopoulou, V. Sufiyan, M.B. Tabares-Seisdedos, R. Tabuchi, T. Takahashi, K. Tamtaji, O.R. Tarawneh, M.R. Tassew, S.G. Taymoori, P. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Temsah, M.-H. Temsah, O. Tesfay, B.E. Tesfay, F.H. Teshale, M.Y. Tessema, G.A. Thapa, S. Tlaye, K.G. Topor-Madry, R. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Traini, E. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Tsadik, A.G. Ullah, I. Uthman, O.A. Vacante, M. Vaezi, M. Varona Perez, P. Veisani, Y. Vidale, S. Violante, F.S. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Vosoughi, K. Vu, G.T. Vujcic, I.S. Wabinga, H. Wachamo, T.M. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Weldegebreal, F. Weldesamuel, G.T. Wijeratne, T. Wondafrash, D.Z. Wonde, T.E. Wondmieneh, A.B. Workie, H.M. Yadav, R. Yadegar, A. Yadollahpour, A. Yaseri, M. Yazdi-Feyzabadi, V. Yeshaneh, A. Yimam, M.A. Yimer, E.M. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Younis, M.Z. Yousefi, B. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zabeh, E. Zadnik, V. Moghadam, T.Z. Zaidi, Z. Zamani, M. Zandian, H. Zangeneh, A. Zaki, L. Zendehdel, K. Zenebe, Z.M. Zewale, T.A. Ziapour, A. Zodpey, S. Murray, C.J.L. Global Burden of Disease Cancer Collaboration

Abstract

Importance: Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data. Objective: To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning. Evidence Review: We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-Adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence. Findings: In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs). Conclusions and Relevance: The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care. © 2019 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.

Published
2019

2. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

Author

Frank, T.D. Carter, A. Jahagirdar, D. Biehl, M.H. Douwes-Schultz, D. Larson, S.L. Arora, M. Dwyer-Lindgren, L. Steuben, K.M. Abbastabar, H. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abyu, D.M. Adabi, M. Adebayo, O.M. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, K. Ahmadian, E. Ahmadpour, E. Ahmed, M.B. Akal, C.G. Alahdab, F. Alam, N. Albertson, S.B. Alemnew, B.T.T. Alene, K.A. Alipour, V. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amini, S. Anbari, Z. Anber, N.H. Anjomshoa, M. Antonio, C.A.T. Arabloo, J. Aremu, O. Areri, H.A. Asfaw, E.T. Ashagre, A.F. Asmelash, D. Asrat, A.A. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Awoke, N. Ayanore, M.A. Azari, S. Badawi, A. Bagherzadeh, M. Banach, M. Barac, A. Bärnighausen, T.W. Basu, S. Bedi, N. Behzadifar, M. Bekele, B.B. Belay, S.A. Belay, Y.B. Belayneh, Y.M.M. Berhane, A. Bhat, A.G. Bhattacharyya, K. Biadgo, B. Bijani, A. Shahdaat Bin Sayeed, M. Bitew, H. Blinov, A. Bogale, K.A. Bojia, H.A. Burugina Nagaraja, S.B.N. Butt, Z.A. Cahuana-Hurtado, L. Campuzano Rincon, J.C. Carvalho, F. Chattu, V.K. Christopher, D.J. Chu, D.-T. Crider, R. Dahiru, T. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Daryani, A. Das Neves, J. De Neve, J.-W. Degenhardt, L. Demeke, F.M. Demis, A.B.B. Demissie, D.B. Demoz, G.T. Deribe, K. Des Jarlais, D. Dhungana, G.P. Diaz, D. Djalalinia, S. Do, H.P. Doan, L.P. Duber, H. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duko Adema, B. Effiong, A. Eftekhari, A. El Sayed Zaki, M. El-Jaafary, S.I. El-Khatib, Z. Elsharkawy, A. Endries, A.Y. Eskandarieh, S. Eyawo, O. Farzadfar, F. Fatima, B. Fentahun, N. Fernandes, E. Filip, I. Fischer, F. Folayan, M.O. Foroutan, M. Fukumoto, T. Fullman, N. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Gayesa, R.T. Gebremedhin, K.B. Gebremeskel, G.G. Gebreyohannes, K.K. Gedefaw, G.A. Gelaw, B.K. Gesesew, H.A. Geta, B. Gezae, K.E. Ghadiri, K. Ghashghaee, A. Ginindza, T.T.G. Gugnani, H.C. Guimarães, R.A. Haile, M.T. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamidi, S. Handanagic, S. Handiso, D.W. Hanfore, L.K. Hasanzadeh, A. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Hay, S.I. Henok, A. Hoang, C.L. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hsairi, M. Ibitoye, S.E. Idrisov, B. Ikuta, K.S. Ilesanmi, O.S. Irvani, S.S.N. Iwu, C.J. Jacobsen, K.H. James, S.L. Jenabi, E. Jha, R.P. Jonas, J.B. Jorjoran Shushtari, Z. Kabir, A. Kabir, Z. Kadel, R. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, B. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kayode, G.A. Kebede, M.M. Kefale, A.T. Kengne, A.P. Khader, Y.S. Khafaie, M.A. Khalid, N. Khan, E.A. Khan, G. Khan, J. Khang, Y.-H. Khatab, K. Khazaei, S. Khoja, A.T. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kim, Y.J. Kisa, A. Kisa, S. Kochhar, S. Komaki, H. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Kuate Defo, B. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kuupiel, D. Lal, D.K. Lee, J.J.-H. Lenjebo, T.L. Leshargie, C.T. Macarayan, E.R.K. Maddison, E.R. Magdy Abd El Razek, H. Magis-Rodriguez, C. Mahasha, P.W. Majdan, M. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Manafi, N. Mapoma, C.C. Martins-Melo, F.R. Masaka, A. Mayenga, E.N.L. Mehta, V. Meles, G.G. Meles, H.G. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mena, A.T. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, D.T. Mengistu, G. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Miller, T.R. Moazen, B. Mohajer, B. Mohamadi-Bolbanabad, A. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammad, Y. Mohammad Darwesh, A. Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, N. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadibakhsh, R. Mohammadoo-Khorasani, M. Mohammed, J.A. Mohammed, S. Mohebi, F. Mokdad, A.H. Moodley, Y. Moossavi, M. Moradi, G. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moschos, M.M. Mossie, T.B. Mousavi, S.M. Muchie, K.F. Muluneh, A.G. Muriithi, M.K. Mustafa, G. Muthupandian, S. Nagarajan, A.J. Naik, G. Najafi, F. Nazari, J. Ndwandwe, D.E. Nguyen, C.T. Nguyen, H.L.T. Nguyen, S.H. Nguyen, T.H. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nixon, M.R. Nnaji, C.A. Noroozi, M. Noubiap, J.J. Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M. Obsa, M.S. Odame, E.A. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogbo, F.A. Okoro, A. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olum, S. Oppong Asante, K. Oren, E. Otstavnov, S.S. Mahesh, P.A. Padubidri, J.R. Pakhale, S. Pakpour, A.H. Patel, S.K. Paulos, K. Pepito, V.C.F. Peprah, E.K. Piroozi, B. Pourshams, A. Qorbani, M. Rabiee, M. Rabiee, N. Radfar, A. Rafay, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Rahimi-Movaghar, V. Rahman, S.U. Ranabhat, C.L. Rawaf, S. Reis, C. Renjith, V. Reta, M.A. Rezai, M.S. Rios González, C.M. Merdassa Roro, E.E.M. Rostami, A. Rubino, S. Saeedi Moghaddam, S. Safari, S. Sagar, R. Sahraian, M.A. Salem, M.R.R. Salimi, Y. Salomon, J.A. Sambala, E.Z. Samy, A.M. Sartorius, B. Satpathy, M. Sawhney, M. Sayyah, M. Schutte, A.E. Sepanlou, S.G. Seyedmousavi, S. Shabaninejad, H. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shallo, S.A. Shamsizadeh, M. Sharifi, H. Shibuya, K. Shin, J.I. Shirkoohi, R. Silva, D.A.S. Silveira, D.G.A. Singh, J.A. Sisay, M.M.M. Sisay, M. Sisay, S. Smith, A.E. Sokhan, A. Somayaji, R. Soshnikov, S. Stein, D.J. Sufiyan, M.B. Sunguya, B.F. Sykes, B.L. Tadesse, B.T. Tadesse, D.B. Tamirat, K.S. Taveira, N. Tekelemedhin, S.W. Temesgen, H.D. Tesfay, F.H. Teshale, M.Y. Thapa, S. Tlaye, K.G. Topp, S.M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Ullah, I. Unnikrishnan, B. Uthman, O.A. Veisani, Y. Vladimirov, S.K. Wada, F.W. Waheed, Y. Weldegwergs, K.G. Weldesamuel, G.T.T. Westerman, R. Wijeratne, T. Wolde, H.F. Wondafrash, D.Z. Wonde, T.E. Wondmagegn, B.Y. Yeshanew, A.G. Yilma, M.T. Yimer, E.M. Yonemoto, N. Yotebieng, M. Youm, Y. Yu, C. Zaidi, Z. Zarghi, A. Zenebe, Z.M. Zewale, T.A. Ziapour, A. Zodpey, S. Naghavi, M. Vollset, S.E. Wang, H. Lim, S.S. Kyu, H.H. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 HIV collaborators

Abstract

Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package - a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce agesex- specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact. © 2019 The Author(s).

Published
2019

3. Erratum: Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1736–1788)(S0140673618322037)(10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32203-7))

Author

GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators Roth, G.A. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abay, S.M. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, H.T. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abejie, A.N. Abera, S.F. Abil, O.Z. Abraha, H.N. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Adamu, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adedoyin, R.A. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adhena, B.M. Adib, M.G. Admasie, A. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Agesa, K.M. Agrawal, A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmed, M.B. Ahmed, S. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akbari, M.E. Akinyemi, R.O. Akseer, N. Al-Aly, Z. Al-Eyadhy, A. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alahdab, F. Alam, K. Alam, T. Alebel, A. Alene, K.A. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Alonso, J. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Aminde, L.N. Amini, E. Ammar, W. Amoako, Y.A. Anber, N.H. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansari, H. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Anwari, P. Aremu, O. Arnlov, J. Arora, A. Arora, M. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Asfaw, E.T. Ataro, Z. Atique, S. Atre, S.R. Ausloos, M. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayele, Y. Ayer, R. Azzopardi, P.S. Babazadeh, A. Bacha, U. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Bali, A.G. Ballesteros, K.E. Banach, M. Banerjee, K. Bannick, M.S. Banoub, J.A.M. Barboza, M.A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Barnighausen, T.W. Barquera, S. Barrero, L.H. Bassat, Q. Basu, S. Baune, B.T. Baynes, H.W. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Bejot, Y. Bekele, B.B. Belachew, A.B. Belay, E. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Berman, A.E. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Bertolacci, G.J. Beuran, M. Beyranvand, T. Bhalla, A. Bhattarai, S. Bhaumik, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Biehl, M.H. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bilano, V. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Bisanzio, D. Biswas, T. Blacker, B.F. Basara, B.B. Borschmann, R. Bosetti, C. Bozorgmehr, K. Brady, O.J. Brant, L.C. Brayne, C. Brazinova, A. Breitborde, N.J.K. Brenner, H. Briant, P.S. Britton, G. Brugha, T. Busse, R. Butt, Z.A. Callender, C.S.K.H. Campos-Nonato, I.R. Campuzano Rincon, J.C. Cano, J. Car, M. Cardenas, R. Carreras, G. Carrero, J.J. Carter, A. Carvalho, F. Castaneda-Orjuela, C.A. Castillo Rivas, J. Castle, C.D. Castro, C. Castro, F. Catala-Lopez, F. Cerin, E. Chaiah, Y. Chang, J.-C. Charlson, F.J. Chaturvedi, P. Chiang, P.P.-C. Chimed-Ochir, O. Chisumpa, V.H. Chitheer, A. Chowdhury, R. Christensen, H. Christopher, D.J. Chung, S.-C. Cicuttini, F.M. Ciobanu, L.G. Cirillo, M. Cohen, A.J. Cooper, L.T. Cortesi, P.A. Cortinovis, M. Cousin, E. Cowie, B.C. Criqui, M.H. Cromwell, E.A. Crowe, C.S. Crump, J.A. Cunningham, M. Daba, A.K. Dadi, A.F. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Dang, A.K. Dargan, P.I. Daryani, A. Das, S.K. Gupta, R.D. Neves, J.D. Dasa, T.T. Dash, A.P. Davis, A.C. Davis Weaver, N. Davitoiu, D.V. Davletov, K. De La Hoz, F.P. De Neve, J.-W. Degefa, M.G. Degenhardt, L. Degfie, T.T. Deiparine, S. Demoz, G.T. Demtsu, B.B. Denova-Gutierrez, E. Deribe, K. Dervenis, N. Des Jarlais, D.C. Dessie, G.A. Dey, S. Dharmaratne, S.D. Dicker, D. Dinberu, M.T. Ding, E.L. Dirac, M.A. Djalalinia, S. Dokova, K. Doku, D.T. Donnelly, C.A. Dorsey, E.R. Doshi, P.P. Douwes-Schultz, D. Doyle, K.E. Driscoll, T.R. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duncan, B.B. Duraes, A.R. Ebrahimi, H. Ebrahimpour, S. Edessa, D. Edvardsson, D. Eggen, A.E. El Bcheraoui, C. El Sayed Zaki, M. El-Khatib, Z. Elkout, H. Ellingsen, C.L. Endres, M. Endries, A.Y. Er, B. Erskine, H.E. Eshrati, B. Eskandarieh, S. Esmaeili, R. Esteghamati, A. Fakhar, M. Fakhim, H. Faramarzi, M. Fareed, M. Farhadi, F. Farinha, C.S.E. Faro, A. Farvid, M.S. Farzadfar, F. Farzaei, M.H. Feigin, V.L. Feigl, A.B. Fentahun, N. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Fernandes, J.C. Ferrari, A.J. Feyissa, G.T. Filip, I. Finegold, S. Fischer, F. Fitzmaurice, C. Foigt, N.A. Foreman, K.J. Fornari, C. Frank, T.D. Fukumoto, T. Fuller, J.E. Fullman, N. Furst, T. Furtado, J.M. Futran, N.D. Gallus, S. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Garcia-Gordillo, M.A. Gardner, W.M. Gebre, A.K. Gebrehiwot, T.T. Gebremedhin, A.T. Gebremichael, B. Gebremichael, T.G. Gelano, T.F. Geleijnse, J.M. Genova-Maleras, R. Geramo, Y.C.D. Gething, P.W. Gezae, K.E. Ghadami, M.R. Ghadimi, R. Ghasemi Falavarjani, K. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghimire, M. Gibney, K.B. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Gillum, R.F. Ginawi, I.A. Giroud, M. Giussani, G. Goenka, S. Goldberg, E.M. Goli, S. Gomez-Dantes, H. Gona, P.N. Gopalani, S.V. Gorman, T.M. Goto, A. Goulart, A.C. Gnedovskaya, E.V. Grada, A. Grosso, G. Gugnani, H.C. Guimaraes, A.L.S. Guo, Y. Gupta, P.C. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Gupta, T. Gutierrez, R.A. Gyawali, B. Haagsma, J.A. Hafezi-Nejad, N. Hagos, T.B. Hailegiyorgis, T.T. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Handal, A.J. Hankey, G.J. Harb, H.L. Harikrishnan, S. Haro, J.M. Hasan, M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hay, R.J. Hay, S.I. He, Y. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A. Hegazy, M.I. Heibati, B. Heidari, M. Hendrie, D. Henok, A. Henry, N.J. Herteliu, C. Heydarpour, F. Heydarpour, P. Heydarpour, S. Hibstu, D.T. Hoek, H.W. Hole, M.K. Homaie Rad, E. Hoogar, P. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseini, S.M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, M. Hostiuc, S. Hotez, P.J. Hoy, D.G. Hsiao, T. Hu, G. Huang, J.J. Husseini, A. Hussen, M.M. Hutfless, S. Idrisov, B. Ilesanmi, O.S. Iqbal, U. Irvani, S.S.N. Irvine, C.M.S. Islam, N. Islam, S.M.S. Islami, F. Jacobsen, K.H. Jahangiry, L. Jahanmehr, N. Jain, S.K. Jakovljevic, M. Jalu, M.T. James, S.L. Javanbakht, M. Jayatilleke, A.U. Jeemon, P. Jenkins, K.J. Jha, R.P. Jha, V. Johnson, C.O. Johnson, S.C. Jonas, J.B. Joshi, A. Jozwiak, J.J. Jungari, S.B. Jurisson, M. Kabir, Z. Kadel, R. Kahsay, A. Kalani, R. Karami, M. Karami Matin, B. Karch, A. Karema, C. Karimi-Sari, H. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, D.H. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kassebaum, N.J. Katikireddi, S.V. Kaul, A. Kazemi, Z. Kazemi Karyani, A. Kazi, D.S. Kefale, A.T. Keiyoro, P.N. Kemp, G.R. Kengne, A.P. Keren, A. Kesavachandran, C.N. Khader, Y.S. Khafaei, B. Khafaie, M.A. Khajavi, A. Khalid, N. Khalil, I.A. Khan, E.A. Khan, M.S. Khan, M.A. Khang, Y.-H. Khater, M.M. Khoja, A.T. Khosravi, A. Khosravi, M.H. Khubchandani, J. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kibret, G.D. Kidanemariam, Z.T. Kiirithio, D.N. Kim, D. Kim, Y.-E. Kim, Y.J. Kimokoti, R.W. Kinfu, Y. Kisa, A. Kissimova-Skarbek, K. Kivimaki, M. Knudsen, A.K.S. Kocarnik, J.M. Kochhar, S. Kokubo, Y. Kolola, T. Kopec, J.A. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Kravchenko, M.A. Krishan, K. Kuate Defo, B. Kucuk Bicer, B. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kumar, P. Kutz, M.J. Kuzin, I. Kyu, H.H. Lad, D.P. Lad, S.D. Lafranconi, A. Lal, D.K. Lalloo, R. Lallukka, T. Lam, J.O. Lami, F.H. Lansingh, V.C. Lansky, S. Larson, H.J. Latifi, A. Lau, K.M.-M. Lazarus, J.V. Lebedev, G. Lee, P.H. Leigh, J. Leili, M. Leshargie, C.T. Li, S. Li, Y. Liang, J. Lim, L.-L. Lim, S.S. Limenih, M.A. Linn, S. Liu, S. Liu, Y. Lodha, R. Lonsdale, C. Lopez, A.D. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Lozano, R. Lunevicius, R. Ma, S. Macarayan, E.R.K. Mackay, M.T. MacLachlan, J.H. Maddison, E.R. Madotto, F. Magdy Abd El Razek, H. Magdy Abd El Razek, M. Maghavani, D.P. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malta, D.C. Manda, A.-L. Mandarano-Filho, L.G. Manguerra, H. Mansournia, M.A. Mapoma, C.C. Marami, D. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marczak, L. Marks, A. Marks, G.B. Martinez, G. Martins-Melo, F.R. Martopullo, I. Marz, W. Marzan, M.B. Masci, J.R. Massenburg, B.B. Mathur, M.R. Mathur, P. Matzopoulos, R. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McAlinden, C. McGrath, J.J. McKee, M. McMahon, B.J. Mehata, S. Mehndiratta, M.M. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Mekonnen, T.C. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, D.T. Mengistu, G. Mensah, G.A. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Mezgebe, H.B. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Millear, A.I. Miller, T.R. Miller-Petrie, M.K. Mini, G.K. Mirabi, P. Mirarefin, M. Mirica, A. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Mitiku, H. Moazen, B. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammed, M.A. Mohammed, S. Mohan, V. Mokdad, A.H. Molokhia, M. Monasta, L. Moradi, G. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morawska, L. Velasquez, I.M. Morgado-Da-Costa, J. Morrison, S.D. Moschos, M.M. Mouodi, S. Mousavi, S.M. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Mukhopadhyay, S. Muller, K. Mumford, J.E. Musa, J. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Muthupandian, S. Nachega, J.B. Nagel, G. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Nair, S. Najafi, F. Naldi, L. Nam, H.S. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Nascimento, B.R. Natarajan, G. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngalesoni, F.N. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, A.Q. Nguyen, G. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, L.H. Nguyen, M. Nguyen, T.H. Nichols, E. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nirayo, Y.L. Nixon, M.R. Nolutshungu, N. Nomura, S. Norheim, O.F. Noroozi, M. Norrving, B. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Shiadeh, M.N. Nowroozi, M.R. Nyasulu, P.S. Odell, C.M. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.H. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olivares, P.R. Olsen, H.E. Olusanya, B.O. Olusanya, J.O. Ong, K.L. Ong, S.K.S. Oren, E. Orpana, H.M. Ortiz, A. Ortiz, J.R. Otstavnov, S.S. Overland, S. Owolabi, M.O. Ozdemir, R. Mahesh, P.A. Pacella, R. Pakhale, S. Pakhare, A.P. Pakpour, A.H. Pana, A. Panda-Jonas, S. Pandian, J.D. Parisi, A. Park, E.-K. Parry, C.D.H. Parsian, H. Patel, S. Pati, S. Patton, G.C. Paturi, V.R. Paulson, K.R. Pereira, A. Pereira, D.M. Perico, N. Pesudovs, K. Petzold, M. Phillips, M.R. Piel, F.B. Pigott, D.M. Pillay, J.D. Pirsaheb, M. Pishgar, F. Polinder, S. Postma, M.J. Pourshams, A. Poustchi, H. Pujar, A. Prakash, S. Prasad, N. Purcell, C.A. Qorbani, M. Quintana, H. Quistberg, D.A. Rade, K.W. Anwar Rafay, A.R. Rahim, F. Rahimi, K. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Rahman, M. Rahman, M.H.U. Rahman, M.A. Rai, R.K. Rajsic, S. Ram, U. Ranabhat, C.L. Ranjan, P. Rao, P.C. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, S. Razo-Garcia, C. Reddy, K.S. Reiner, R.C. Reitsma, M.B. Remuzzi, G. Renzaho, A.M.N. Resnikoff, S. Rezaei, S. Rezaeian, S. Rezai, M.S. Riahi, S.M. Ribeiro, A.L.P. Rios-Blancas, M.J. Roba, K.T. Roberts, N.L.S. Robinson, S.R. Roever, L. Ronfani, L. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Rothenbacher, D. Roy, A. Rubagotti, E. Sachdev, P.S. Saddik, B. Sadeghi, E. Safari, H. Safdarian, M. Safi, S. Safiri, S. Sagar, R. Sahebkar, A. Sahraian, M.A. Salam, N. Salama, J.S. Salamati, P. De Freitas Saldanha, R. Saleem, Z. Salimi, Y. Salvi, S.S. Salz, I. Sambala, E.Z. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Dolores Sanchez-Nino, M. Santomauro, D.F. Santos, I.S. Santos, J.V. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Jose, B.P.S. Sarker, A.R. Sarmiento-Suarez, R. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Saxena, S. Sayyah, M. Schaeffner, E. Schmidt, M.I. Schneider, I.J.C. Schottker, B. Schutte, A.E. Schwebel, D.C. Schwendicke, F. Scott, J.G. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Servan-Mori, E. Seyedmousavi, S. Shabaninejad, H. Shackelford, K.A. Shafieesabet, A. Shahbazi, M. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsi, M. Shamsizadeh, M. Sharafi, K. Sharif, M. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. Sharma, R. She, J. Sheikh, A. Shi, P. Shiferaw, M.S. Shigematsu, M. Shiri, R. Shirkoohi, R. Shiue, I. Shokraneh, F. Shrime, M.G. Si, S. Siabani, S. Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. Sigurvinsdottir, R. Silberberg, D.H. Santos Silva, D.A. Silva, J.P. Da Silva, N.T. Silveira, D.G.A. Singh, J.A. Singh, N.P. Singh, P.K. Singh, V. Sinha, D.N. Sliwa, K. Smith, M. Sobaih, B.H. Sobhani, S. Sobngwi, E. Soneji, S.S. Soofi, M. Sorensen, R.J.D. Soriano, J.B. Soyiri, I.N. Sposato, L.A. Sreeramareddy, C.T. Srinivasan, V. Stanaway, J.D. Starodubov, V.I. Stathopoulou, V. Stein, D.J. Steiner, C. Stewart, L.G. Stokes, M.A. Subart, M.L. Sudaryanto, A. Sufiyan, M.B. Sur, P.J. Sutradhar, I. Sykes, B.L. Sylaja, P.N. Sylte, D.O. Szoeke, C.E.I. Tabares-Seisdedos, R. Tabuchi, T. Tadakamadla, S.K. Takahashi, K. Tandon, N. Tassew, S.G. Taveira, N. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Tekalign, T.G. Tekle, M.G. Temsah, M.-H. Temsah, O. Terkawi, A.S. Teshale, M.Y. Tessema, B. Tessema, G.A. Thankappan, K.R. Thirunavukkarasu, S. Thomas, N. Thrift, A.G. Thurston, G.D. Tilahun, B. To, Q.G. Tobe-Gai, R. Tonelli, M. Topor-Madry, R. Torre, A.E. Tortajada-Girbes, M. Touvier, M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Tripathi, S. Troeger, C.E. Truelsen, T.C. Truong, N.T. Tsadik, A.G. Tsoi, D. Tudor Car, L. Murat Tuzcu, E. Tyrovolas, S. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Undurraga, E.A. Updike, R.L. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Uzun, S.B. Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Vaidya, G. Valdez, P.R. Varavikova, E. Vasankari, T.J. Venketasubramanian, N. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Wagner, G.R. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Wallin, M.T. Walson, J.L. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Wassie, M.M. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weldegebreal, F. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. Werkneh, A.A. West, T.E. Westerman, R. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Wilner, L.B. Wilson, S. Winkler, A.S. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Wu, S. Wu, Y.-C. Wyper, G.M.A. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Yadgir, S. Yadollahpour, A. Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S.H. Yakob, B. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Yentur, G.K. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yirsaw, B.D. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yonga, G. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zadnik, V. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zare, Z. Zeleke, A.J. Zenebe, Z.M. Zhang, A.L. Zhang, K. Zhou, M. Zodpey, S. Zuhlke, L.J. Naghavi, M. Murray, C.J.L.

Abstract

GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392: 1736–88—The bottom row in figure 7 was cut off. This correction has been made to the online version as of Nov 9, 2018, and has been made to the printed Article. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd

Published
2018

4. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Dicker, D. Nguyen, G. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abay, S.M. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdel-Rahman, O. Abdi, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abdurahman, A.A. Abebe, H.T. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abebo, T.A. Aboyans, V. Abraha, H.N. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, P. Adebayo, O.M. Adedeji, I.A. Adedoyin, R.A. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adhena, B.M. Adhikari, T.B. Adib, M.G. Adou, A.K. Adsuar, J.C. Afarideh, M. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Aggarwal, R. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, S. Agrawal, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.L.C.B. Ahmed, S. Ahmed, M.B. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akanda, A.S. Akbari, M.E. Akibu, M. Akinyemi, R.O. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Alahdab, F. Al-Aly, Z. Alam, K. Alebel, A. Aleman, A.V. Alene, K.A. Al-Eyadhy, A. Ali, R. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Allen, C.A. Alonso, J. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alsharif, U. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Amini, E. Ammar, W. Amoako, Y.A. Anber, N.H. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Anlay, D.Z. Ansari, H. Ansariadi, A. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Appiah, S.C.Y. Aremu, O. Areri, H.A. Ärnlöv, J. Arora, M. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asadi-Lari, M. Asayesh, H. Asfaw, E.T. Asgedom, S.W. Assadi, R. Ataro, Z. Atey, T.M.M. Athari, S.S. Atique, S. Atre, S.R. Atteraya, M.S. Attia, E.F. Ausloos, M. Avila-Burgos, L. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Awuah, B. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayele, H.T. Ayele, Y. Ayer, R. Ayuk, T.B. Azzopardi, P.S. Azzopardi-Muscat, N. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Balakrishnan, K. Bali, A.G. Banach, M. Banstola, A. Barac, A. Barboza, M.A. Barquera, S. Barrero, L.H. Basaleem, H. Bassat, Q. Basu, A. Basu, S. Baune, B.T. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Béjot, Y. Bekele, B.B. Belachew, A.B. Belay, A.G. Belay, E. Belay, S.A. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Berhane, A. Berman, A.E. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Bertolacci, G.J. Beuran, M. Beyranvand, T. Bhala, N. Bhatia, E. Bhatt, S. Bhattarai, S. Bhaumik, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Birlik, S.M. Birungi, C. Bisanzio, D. Biswas, T. Bjørge, T. Bleyer, A. Bora Basara, B. Bose, D. Bosetti, C. Boufous, S. Bourne, R. Brady, O.J. Bragazzi, N.L. Brant, L.C. Brazinova, A. Breitborde, N.J.K. Brenner, H. Britton, G. Brugha, T. Burke, K.E. Busse, R. Butt, Z.A. Cahuana-Hurtado, L. Callender, C.S.K.H. Campos-Nonato, I.R. Campuzano Rincon, J.C. Cano, J. Car, M. Cárdenas, R. Carreras, G. Carrero, J.J. Carter, A. Carvalho, F. Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A. Castillo Rivas, J. Castro, F. Catalá-López, F. Çavlin, A. Cerin, E. Chaiah, Y. Champs, A.P. Chang, H.-Y. Chang, J.-C. Chattopadhyay, A. Chaturvedi, P. Chen, W. Chiang, P.P.-C. Chimed-Ochir, O. Chin, K.L. Chisumpa, V.H. Chitheer, A. Choi, J.-Y.J. Christensen, H. Christopher, D.J. Chung, S.-C. Cicuttini, F.M. Ciobanu, L.G. Cirillo, M. Claro, R.M. Cohen, A.J. Collado-Mateo, D. Constantin, M.-M. Conti, S. Cooper, C. Cooper, L.T. Cortesi, P.A. Cortinovis, M. Cousin, E. Criqui, M.H. Cromwell, E.A. Crowe, C.S. Crump, J.A. Cucu, A. Cunningham, M. Daba, A.K. Dachew, B.A. Dadi, A.F. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Dang, A.K. Dargan, P.I. Daryani, A. Das, S.K. Das Gupta, R. Das Neves, J. Dasa, T.T. Dash, A.P. Davis Weaver, N. Davitoiu, D.V. Davletov, K. Dayama, A. de Courten, B. De la Hoz, F.P. De leo, D. De Neve, J.-W. Degefa, M.G. Degenhardt, L. Degfie, T.T. Deiparine, S. Dellavalle, R.P. Demoz, G.T. Demtsu, B.B. Denova-Gutiérrez, E. Deribe, K. Dervenis, N. Des Jarlais, D.C. Dessie, G.A. Dey, S. Dharmaratne, S.D. Dhimal, M. Ding, E.L. Djalalinia, S. Doku, D.T. Dolan, K.A. Donnelly, C.A. Dorsey, E.R. Douwes-Schultz, D. Doyle, K.E. Drake, T.M. Driscoll, T.R. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duncan, B.B. Duraes, A.R. Ebrahimi, H. Ebrahimpour, S. Edessa, D. Edvardsson, D. Eggen, A.E. El Bcheraoui, C. El Sayed Zaki, M. Elfaramawi, M. El-Khatib, Z. Ellingsen, C.L. Elyazar, I.R.F. Enayati, A. Endries, A.Y.Y. Er, B. Ermakov, S.P. Eshrati, B. Eskandarieh, S. Esmaeili, R. Esteghamati, A. Esteghamati, S. Fakhar, M. Fakhim, H. Farag, T. Faramarzi, M. Fareed, M. Farhadi, F. Farid, T.A. E Sá Farinha, C.S. Farioli, A. Faro, A. Farvid, M.S. Farzadfar, F. Farzaei, M.H. Fazeli, M.S. Feigin, V.L. Feigl, A.B. Feizy, F. Fentahun, N. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Fernandes, J.C. Feyissa, G.T. Fijabi, D.O. Filip, I. Finegold, S. Fischer, F. Flor, L.S. Foigt, N.A. Ford, J.A. Foreman, K.J. Fornari, C. Frank, T.D. Franklin, R.C. Fukumoto, T. Fuller, J.E. Fullman, N. Fürst, T. Furtado, J.M. Futran, N.D. Galan, A. Gallus, S. Gambashidze, K. Gamkrelidze, A. Gankpe, F.G. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Garcia-Gordillo, M.A. Gebre, T. Gebre, A.K. Gebregergs, G.B. Gebrehiwot, T.T. Gebremedhin, A.T. Gelano, T.F. Gelaw, Y.A. Geleijnse, J.M. Genova-Maleras, R. Gessner, B.D. Getachew, S. Gething, P.W. Gezae, K.E. Ghadami, M.R. Ghadimi, R. Ghasemi Falavarjani, K. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghiasvand, H. Ghimire, M. Ghoshal, A.G. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Gillum, R.F. Giussani, G. Goenka, S. Goli, S. Gomez, R.S. Gomez-Cabrera, M.C. Gómez-Dantés, H. Gona, P.N. Goodridge, A. Gopalani, S.V. Goto, A. Goulart, A.C. Goulart, B.N.G. Grada, A. Grosso, G. Gugnani, H.C. Guimaraes, A.L.S. Guo, Y. Gupta, P.C. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Gupta, T. Gyawali, B. Haagsma, J.A. Hachinski, V. Hafezi-Nejad, N. Hagos, T.B. Hailegiyorgis, T.T. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Handal, A.J. Hankey, G.J. Harb, H.L. Harikrishnan, S. Haririan, H. Haro, J.M. Hasan, M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hay, R.J. Hay, S.I. He, Y. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A. Hegazy, M.I. Heibati, B. Heidari, M. Hendrie, D. Henok, A. Henry, N.J. Heredia-Pi, I. Herteliu, C. Heydarpour, F. Heydarpour, P. Heydarpour, S. Hibstu, D.T. Hoek, H.W. Hole, M.K. Homaie Rad, E. Hoogar, P. Horino, M. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseini, S.M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, S. Hostiuc, M. Hotez, P.J. Hoy, D.G. Hsairi, M. Htet, A.S. Hu, G. Huang, J.J. Husseini, A. Hussen, M.M. Hutfless, S. Iburg, K.M. Igumbor, E.U. Ikeda, C.T. Ilesanmi, O.S. Iqbal, U. Irvani, S.S.N. Isehunwa, O.O. Islam, S.M.S. Islami, F. Jahangiry, L. Jahanmehr, N. Jain, R. Jain, S.K. Jakovljevic, M. James, S.L. Javanbakht, M. Jayaraman, S. Jayatilleke, A.U. Jee, S.H. Jeemon, P. Jha, R.P. Jha, V. Ji, J.S. Johnson, S.C. Jonas, J.B. Joshi, A. Jozwiak, J.J. Jungari, S.B. Jürisson, M. Madhanraj, K. Kabir, Z. Kadel, R. Kahsay, A. Kahssay, M. Kalani, R. Kapil, U. Karami, M. Karami Matin, B. Karch, A. Karema, C. Karimi, N. Karimi, S.M. Karimi-Sari, H. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kassa, Z.Y. Kassebaum, N.J. Katibeh, M. Katikireddi, S.V. Kaul, A. Kawakami, N. Kazemeini, H. Kazemi, Z. Kazemi Karyani, A. Prakash, K.C. Kebede, S. Keiyoro, P.N. Kemp, G.R. Kengne, A.P. Keren, A. Kereselidze, M. Khader, Y.S. Khafaie, M.A. Khajavi, A. Khalid, N. Khalil, I.A. Khan, E.A. Khan, G. Khan, M.S. Khan, M.A. Khang, Y.-H. Khanna, T. Khater, M.M. Khatony, A. Khazaie, H. Khoja, A.T. Khosravi, A. Khosravi, M.H. Khubchandani, J. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kibret, G.D.D. Kim, C.-I. Kim, D. Kim, J.Y. Kim, Y.-E. Kimokoti, R.W. Kinfu, Y. Kinra, S. Kisa, A. Kissimova-Skarbek, K. Kissoon, N. Kivimäki, M. Kleber, M.E. Knibbs, L.D. Knudsen, A.K.S. Kochhar, S. Kokubo, Y. Kolola, T. Kopec, J.A. Kosek, M.N. Kosen, S. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Kravchenko, M.A. Krishan, K. Krishnaswami, S. Kuate Defo, B. Kucuk Bicer, B. Kudom, A.A. Kuipers, E.J. Kulikoff, X.R. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kumar, P. Kumsa, F.A. Kutz, M.J. Lad, S.D. Lafranconi, A. Lal, D.K. Lalloo, R. Lam, H. Lami, F.H. Lan, Q. Langan, S.M. Lansingh, V.C. Lansky, S. Larson, H.J. Laryea, D.O. Lassi, Z.S. Latifi, A. Lavados, P.M. Laxmaiah, A. Lazarus, J.V. Lebedev, G. Lee, P.H. Leigh, J. Leshargie, C.T. Leta, S. Levi, M. Li, S. Li, Y. Li, X. Liang, J. Liang, X. Liben, M.L. Lim, L.-L. Lim, S.S. Limenih, M.A. Linn, S. Liu, S. Liu, Y. Lodha, R. Logroscino, G. Lonsdale, C. Lorch, S.A. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Lozano, R. Lucas, T.C.D. Lunevicius, R. Lyons, R.A. Ma, S. Mabika, C. Macarayan, E.R.K. Mackay, M.T. Maddison, E.R. Maddison, R. Madotto, F. Magdy Abd El Razek, H. Magdy Abd El Razek, M. Maghavani, D.P. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malik, M.A. Malta, D.C. Mamun, A.A. Manamo, W.A. Manda, A.-L. Mansournia, M.A. Mantovani, L.G. Mapoma, C.C. Marami, D. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marina, S. Martinez-Raga, J. Martins, S.C.O. Martins-Melo, F.R. März, W. Marzan, M.B. Mashamba-Thompson, T.P. Masiye, F. Massenburg, B.B. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McGrath, J.J. McKee, M. Mehata, S. Mehendale, S.M. Mehndiratta, M.M. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Mekonen, T. Mekonnen, T.C. Meles, H.G. Meles, K.G. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, D.T. Mengistu, G. Mensah, G.A. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Mezgebe, H.B. Miangotar, Y. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Miller, T.R. Mini, G.K. Mirica, A. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Moazen, B. Moges, N.A. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani, M. Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, M. Mohammed, S. Mohammed, M.A. Mohan, V. Mokdad, A.H. Molokhia, M. Monasta, L. Moradi, G. Moradi, M. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morawska, L. Moreno Velásquez, I. Morgado-Da-costa, J. Morrison, S.D. Mosapour, A. Moschos, M.M. Mousavi, S.M. Muche, A.A. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Mukhopadhyay, S. Mullany, E.C. Muller, K. Murhekar, M. Murphy, T.B. Murthy, G.V.S. Murthy, S. Musa, J. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Muthupandian, S. Nachega, J.B. Nagel, G. Naghavi, M. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Nair, S. Najafi, F. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Nascimento, B.R. Nawaz, H. Ncama, B.P. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngalesoni, F.N. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, L.H. Nguyen, M. Nguyen, T.H. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nirayo, Y.L. Nisar, M.I. Nixon, M.R. Nolutshungu, N. Nomura, S. Norheim, O.F. Noroozi, M. Norrving, B. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M. Nowroozi, M.R. Nsoesie, E.O. Nyasulu, P.S. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogah, O.S. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Okoro, A. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Olusanya, B.O. Olusanya, J.O. Ong, S.K. Opio, J.N. Oren, E. Ortiz, J.R. Ortiz, A. Ota, E. Otstavnov, S.S. Øverland, S. Owolabi, M.O. Oyekale, A.S. Mahesh, P.A. Pacella, R. Pakhale, S. Pakhare, A.P. Pana, A. Panda, B.K. Panda-Jonas, S. Pandey, A.R. Pandian, J.D. Parisi, A. Park, E.-K. Parry, C.D.H. Parsian, H. Patel, S. Patle, A. Patten, S.B. Patton, G.C. Paudel, D. Pearce, N. Peprah, E.K. Pereira, A. Pereira, D.M. Perez, K.M. Perico, N. Pervaiz, A. Pesudovs, K. Petri, W.A. Petzold, M. Phillips, M.R. Pigott, D.M. Pillay, J.D. Pirsaheb, M. Pishgar, F. Plass, D. Polinder, S. Pond, C.D. Popova, S. Postma, M.J. Pourmalek, F. Pourshams, A. Poustchi, H. Prabhakaran, D. Prakash, V. Prakash, S. Prasad, N. Qorbani, M. Quistberg, D.A. Radfar, A. Rafay, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi, K. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Rahimi-Movaghar, V. Rahman, M. Ur Rahman, M.H. Rahman, M.A. Ur Rahman, S. Rai, R.K. Rajati, F. Rajsic, S. Raju, S.B. Ram, U. Ranabhat, C.L. Ranjan, P. Ranta, A. Rasella, D. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, S. Ray, S.E. Razo-García, C. Rego, M.A.S. Rehm, J. Reiner, R.C. Reinig, N. Reis, C. Remuzzi, G. Renzaho, A.M.N. Resnikoff, S. Rezaei, S. Rezaeian, S. Rezai, M.S. Riahi, S.M. Ribeiro, A.L.P. Riojas, H. Rios-Blancas, M.J. Roba, K.T. Robinson, S.R. Roever, L. Ronfani, L. Roshandel, G. Roshchin, D.O. Rostami, A. Rothenbacher, D. Rubagotti, E. Ruhago, G.M. Saadat, S. Sabde, Y.D. Sachdev, P.S. Saddik, B. Sadeghi, E. Saeedi Moghaddam, S. Safari, H. Safari, Y. Safari-Faramani, R. Safdarian, M. Safi, S. Safiri, S. Sagar, R. Sahebkar, A. Sahraian, M.A. Sajadi, H.S. Salahshoor, M. Salam, N. Salama, J.S. Salamati, P. Saldanha, R.F. Salimi, Y. Salimzadeh, H. Salz, I. Sambala, E.Z. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Sanchez-Niño, M.D. Santos, I.S. Santos, J.V. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Sao Jose, B.P. Sardana, M. Sarker, A.R. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Savic, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Saxena, S. Sayyah, M. Scaria, V. Schaeffner, E. Schelonka, K. Schmidt, M.I. Schneider, I.J.C. Schöttker, B. Schutte, A.E. Schwebel, D.C. Schwendicke, F. Scott, J.G. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Serván-Mori, E. Shabaninejad, H. Shackelford, K.A. Shafieesabet, A. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shakir, R.A. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsi, M. Shamsizadeh, M. Sharafi, H. Sharafi, K. Sharif, M. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. Sharma, M. Sharma, J. Sharma, R. She, J. Sheikh, A. Sheth, K.N. Shi, P. Shibuya, K. Shifa, G.T. Shiferaw, M.S. Shigematsu, M. Shiri, R. Shirkoohi, R. Shiue, I. Shokraneh, F. Shrime, M.G. Shukla, S.R. Si, S. Siabani, S. Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. Sigurvinsdottir, R. Silpakit, N. Silva, D.A.S. Silva, J.P. Silveira, D.G.A. Singam, N.S.V. Singh, J.A. Singh, V. Sinha, A.P. Sinha, D.N. Sitas, F. Skirbekk, V. Sliwa, K. Soares Filho, A.M. Sobaih, B.H. Sobhani, S. Soofi, M. Soriano, J.B. Soyiri, I.N. Sposato, L.A. Sreeramareddy, C.T. Srinivasan, V. Srivastava, R.K. Starodubov, V.I. Stathopoulou, V. Steel, N. Stein, D.J. Steiner, C. Stewart, L.G. Stokes, M.A. Sudaryanto, A. Sufiyan, M.B. Sulo, G. Sunguya, B.F. Sur, P.J. Sutradhar, I. Sykes, B.L. Sylaja, P.N. Sylte, D.O. Szoeke, C.E.I. Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. Tabuchi, T. Tadakamadla, S.K. Takahashi, K. Tandon, N. Tassew, A.A. Tassew, S.G. Tavakkoli, M. Taveira, N. Tawye, N.Y. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Tekalign, T.G. Tekle, M.G. Temesgen, H. Temsah, M.-H. Temsah, O. Terkawi, A.S. Teshale, M.Y. Tessema, B. Teweldemedhin, M. Thakur, J.S. Thankappan, K.R. Thirunavukkarasu, S. Thomas, L.A. Thomas, N. Thrift, A.G. Tilahun, B. To, Q.G. Tobe-Gai, R. Tonelli, M. Topor-Madry, R. Topouzis, F. Torre, A.E. Tortajada-Girbés, M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Towbin, J.A. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Tripathi, S. Tripathy, S.P. Truelsen, T.C. Truong, N.T. Tsadik, A.G. Tsilimparis, N. Tudor Car, L. Tuzcu, E.M. Tyrovolas, S. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Uzun, S.B. Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Vaidya, G. Valdez, P.R. Varavikova, E. Varughese, S. Vasankari, T.J. Vasconcelos, A.M.N. Venketasubramanian, N. Vidavalur, R. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Vosoughi, K. Vujcic, I.S. Wagner, G.R. Wagnew, F.W.S. Waheed, Y. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Wassie, M.M. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weiss, D.J. Weiss, J. Weldegebreal, F. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. Westerman, R. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Widecka, K. Wijeratne, T. Winkler, A.S. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Wondemagegn, S.A. Wu, S. Wyper, G.M.A. Xu, G. Yadav, R. Yakob, B. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Ye, P. Yearwood, J.A. Yentür, G.K. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yoon, S.-J. York, H.W. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zachariah, G. Zadnik, V. Zafar, S. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zare, Z. Zeeb, H. Zeleke, M.M. Zenebe, Z.M. Zerfu, T.A. Zhang, K. Zhang, X. Zhou, M. Zhu, J. Zodpey, S. Zucker, I. Zuhlke, L.J.J. Lopez, A.D. Gakidou, E. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 Mortality Collaborators

Abstract

Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specifc mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The fndings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which refects signifcant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. © 2018 The Author(s).

Published
2018

5. Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Lozano, R. Fullman, N. Abate, D. Abay, S.M. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdel-Rahman, O. Abdi, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, N.D. Abebe, Z. Abejie, A.N. Abera, S.F. Abil, O.Z. Aboyans, V. Abraha, H.N. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M. Abyu, G.Y. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Acharya, P. Adamu, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adedeji, I.A. Adedoyin, R.A. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adhena, B.M. Adhikari, T.B. Adib, M.G. Adou, A.K. Adsuar, J.C. Afarideh, M. Afshari, M. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Aghayan, S.A. Agius, D. Agrawal, A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.B. Ahmed, S. Akalu, T.Y. Akanda, A.S. Akbari, M.E. Akibu, M. Akinyemi, R.O. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Alahdab, F. Al-Aly, Z. Alam, K. Alam, T. Albujeer, A. Alebel, A. Alene, K.A. Al-Eyadhy, A. Alhabib, S. Ali, R. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Allen, C.A. Almasi, A. Al-Maskari, F. Al-Mekhlafi, H.M. Alonso, J. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alsharif, U. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Amenu, K. Amini, E. Ammar, W. Anber, N.H. Anderson, J.A. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansari, H. Ansariadi, A. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Anwari, P. Appiah, L.T. Aremu, O. Areri, H.A. Ärnlöv, J. Arora, M. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Asfaw, E.T. Asgedom, S.W. Asghar, R.J. Assadi, R. Ataro, Z. Atique, S. Atre, S.R. Atteraya, M.S. Ausloos, M. Avila-Burgos, L. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Quintanilla, B.P.A. Ayele, H.T. Ayele, Y. Ayer, R. Azarpazhooh, M.R. Azzopardi, P.S. Azzopardi-Muscat, N. Babalola, T.K. Babazadeh, A. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Balakrishnan, K. Bali, A.G. Banach, M. Banerjee, A. Banoub, J.A.M. Banstola, A. Barac, A. Barboza, M.A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Barrero, L.H. Barthelemy, C.M. Bassat, Q. Basu, A. Basu, S. Battista, R.J. Baune, B.T. Baynes, H.W. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Béjot, Y. 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Edvardsson, D. El Bcheraoui, C. Eldrenkamp, E. El-Khatib, Z. Elyazar, I.R.F. Enayati, A. Endries, A.Y. Eshrati, B. Eskandarieh, S. Esteghamati, A. Esteghamati, S. Estep, K. Fakhar, M. Fakhim, H. Fanzo, J. Faramarzi, M. Fareed, M. Farhadi, F. Farid, T.A. Farinha, C.S.E.S. Farioli, A. Faro, A. Farvid, M.S. Farzadfar, F. Farzaei, M.H. Farzam, H. Fazaeli, A.A. Fazeli, M.S. Feigin, V.L. Feigl, A.B. Fekadu, W. Feldman, R. Fentahun, N. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Fernandes, J.C. Feyissa, G.T. Fijabi, D.O. Filip, I. Finegold, S. Finger, J.D. Fischer, F. Fitzmaurice, C. Flor, L.S. Foigt, N.A. Foreman, K.J. Frank, T.D. Franklin, R.C. Fukumoto, T. Fukutaki, K. Fuller, J.E. Fürst, T. Furtado, J.M. Gakidou, E. Gallus, S. Gankpe, F.G. Gansevoort, R.T. Garcia, A.C. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Garcia-Gordillo, M.A. Gardner, W.M. Gebre, A.K. Gebre, T. Gebregergs, G.B. Gebrehiwot, T.T. Gebremedhin, A.T. Gebremichael, B. Gebremichael, T.G. Gelano, T.F. Geleijnse, J.M. Geramo, Y.C.D. Getachew, S. Gething, P.W. Gezae, K.E. Ghadami, M.R. Ghadimi, R. Ghadiri, K. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghiasvand, H. Ghimire, M. Ghoshal, A.G. Giampaoli, S. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Giussani, G. Gnedovskaya, E.V. Goldberg, E.M. Goli, S. Gona, P.N. Goodridge, A. Gopalani, S.V. Gorman, T.M. Goto, A. Goulart, A.C. Goulart, B.N.G. Grada, A. Griswold, M.G. Grosso, G. Gugnani, H.C.C. Guillemin, F. Guimaraes, A.L.S. Guo, Y. Gupta, P.C. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Gupta, T. Ha, G.H. Haagsma, J.A. Hachinski, V. Hafezi-Nejad, N. Bidgoli, H.H. Hagos, T.B. Haile, M.T. Hailegiyorgis, T.T. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Hankey, G.J. Harb, H.L. Harikrishnan, S. Haririan, H. Haro, J.M. Hasan, M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hawley, C.N. Hay, S.I. He, Y. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A. Hegazy, M.I. Heibati, B. Heidari, B. Heidari, M. Hendrie, D. Henok, A. Heredia-Pi, I. Herteliu, C. Heydarpour, B. Heydarpour, F. Heydarpour, S. Hibstu, D.T. Híjar, M. Hoek, H.W. Hoffman, D.J. Hole, M.K. Homaie Rad, E. Hoogar, P. Horita, N. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseini, S.M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, M. Hostiuc, S. Hotez, P.J. Hoy, D.G. Hsairi, M. Hsiao, T. Hu, G. Huang, J.J. Hughes, C. Huynh, C.K. Igumbor, E.U. Ikeda, C.T. Ilesanmi, O.S. Iqbal, U. Irvani, S.S.N. Irvine, C.M.S. Islam, S.M.S. Islami, F. Ivers, R.Q. Izadi, N. Jacobsen, K.H. Jahangiry, L. Jahanmehr, N. Jain, S.K. Jakovljevic, M. Jalu, M.T. Jamal, A.A. James, S.L. Jassal, S.K. Javanbakht, M. Jayatilleke, A.U. Jeemon, P. Jha, R.P. Jha, V. Ji, J.S. Johnson, C.O. Johnson, S.C. Jonas, J.B. Jonnagaddala, J. Shushtari, Z.J. Joshi, A. Jozwiak, J.J. Jungari, S.B. Jürisson, M. Madhanraj, K. Kabir, Z. Kadel, R. Kahsay, A. Kahssay, M. Kalani, R. Kapil, U. Karami, M. Matin, B.K. Karanikolos, M. Karimi, N. Karimi, S.M. Karimi-Sari, H. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, D.H. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kassa, Z.Y. Kassebaum, N.J. Katikireddi, S.V. Kaul, A. Kawakami, N. Kazemi, Z. Karyani, A.K. Kazi, D.S. Prakash, K.C. Kebede, S. Keiyoro, P.N. Kemmer, L. Kemp, G.R. Kengne, A.P. Keren, A. Kesavachandran, C.N. Khader, Y.S. Khafaei, B. Khafaie, M.A. Khajavi, A. Khalid, N. Khalil, I.A. Khan, E.A. Khan, M.S. Khan, M.A. Khang, Y.-H. Khanna, T. Khater, M.M. Khatony, A. Khazaeipour, Z. Khazaie, H. Khoja, A.T. Khosravi, A. Khosravi, M.H. Khubchandani, J. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kiarie, H.W. Kibret, G.D. Kiirithio, D.N. Kim, D. Kim, J.Y. Kim, Y.-E. Kim, Y.J. Kimokoti, R.W. Kinfu, Y. Kinra, S. Kisa, A. Kissimova-Skarbek, K. Kissoon, N. Kivimäki, M. Kocarnik, J.M. Kochhar, S. Kokubo, Y. Kolola, T. Kopec, J.A. Kosek, M.N. Kosen, S. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Kravchenko, M.A. Krishan, K. Krohn, K.J. Defo, B.K. Kucuk Bicer, B. Kudom, A.A. Kulikoff, X.R. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kumar, P. Kutz, M.J. Kyu, H.H. Lachat, C. Lad, D.P. Lad, S.D. Lafranconi, A. Lagat, A.K. Lal, D.K. Lalloo, R. Lam, H. Lami, F.H. Lamichhane, P. Lan, Q. Lang, J.J. Lansingh, V.C. Lansky, S. Larson, H.J. Larsson, A.O. Laryea, D.O. Lassi, Z.S. Latifi, A. Lau, K.M.-M. Laxmaiah, A. Lazarus, J.V. Leasher, J.L. Lebedev, G. Ledesma, J.R. Lee, J.B. Lee, P.H. Leever, A.T. Leigh, J. Leinsalu, M. Leshargie, C.T. Leung, J. Lewycka, S. Li, S. Li, X. Li, Y. Liang, J. Liang, X. Liben, M.L. Lim, L.-L. Limenih, M.A. Linn, S. Liu, S. Liu, Y. Lodha, R. Logroscino, G. Lopez, A.D. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Lucchesi, L.R. Lyons, R.A. Macarayan, E.R.K. Mackay, M.T. Maddison, E.R. Madotto, F. Maghavani, D.P. Magis-Rodriguez, C. Mahotra, N.B. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malta, D.C. Mamun, A.A. Manda, A.-L. Mandarano-Filho, L.G. Mangalam, S. Manguerra, H. Mansournia, M.A. Mapoma, C.C. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marks, A. Martin, R.V. Martins, S.C.O. Martins-Melo, F.R. Martopullo, I. Mashamba-Thompson, T.P. Massenburg, B.B. Mathur, M.R. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McAlinden, C. McGrath, J.J. McKee, M. McMahon, B.J. Mehata, S. Mehndiratta, M.M. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Mejia-Rodriguez, F. Mekonen, T. Mekonnen, T.C.C. Meles, H.G. Melese, A. Melku, M. 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Roberts, N.L.S. Roever, L. Ronfani, L. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Roth, G.A. Roy, A. Rubagotti, E. Ruhago, G.M. Sabde, Y.D. Sachdev, P.S. Saddik, B. Sadeghi, E. Safari, H. Safari, Y. Safari-Faramani, R. Safdarian, M. Safi, S. Safiri, S. Sagar, R. Sahebkar, A. Sahraian, M.A. Sajadi, H.S. Salam, N. Salama, J.S. Salamati, P. De Freitas Saldanha, R. Saleem, Z. Salimi, Y. Salimzadeh, H. Salomon, J.A. Salvi, S.S. Salz, I. Sambala, E.Z. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Sanchez-Niño, M.D. Santos, I.S. Milicevic, M.M.S. Jose, B.P.S. Sardana, M. Sarker, A.R. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Savic, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Saxena, S. Saylan, M. Sayyah, M. Schaeffner, E. Schmidt, M.I. Schneider, I.J.C. Schöttker, B. Schutte, A.E. Schwebel, D.C. Schwendicke, F. Seedat, S. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Serván-Mori, E. Seyedmousavi, S. Shabaninejad, H. Shackelford, K.A. Shafieesabet, A. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsi, M.B. Shamsizadeh, M. Sharafi, H. 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Abstract

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license

Published
2018

6. Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Murray, C.J.L. Callender, C.S.K.H. Kulikoff, X.R. Srinivasan, V. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abay, S.M. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdel-Rahman, O. Abdi, A. Abdoli, N. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, H.T. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abebo, T.A. Abejie, A.N. Aboyans, V. Abraha, H.N. Abreu, D.M.X. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, P. Adamu, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adedeji, I.A. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adhena, B.M. Adhikari, T.B. Adib, M.G. Adou, A.K. Adsuar, J.C. Afarideh, M. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Agesa, K.M. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmed, M.B. Ahmed, S. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akanda, A.S. Akbari, M.E. Akibu, M. Akinyemi, R.O. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Alahdab, F. Al-Aly, Z. Alam, K. Alebel, A. Aleman, A.V. Alene, K.A. Al-Eyadhy, A. Ali, R. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Almasi, A. Alonso, J. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alsharif, U. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Ammar, W. Anber, N.H. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Ansari, H. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Appiah, S.C.Y. Aremu, O. Areri, H.A. Arian, N. Ärnlöv, J. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Asfaw, E.T. Asgedom, S.W. Assadi, R. Atey, T.M.M. Atique, S. Atteraya, M.S. Ausloos, M. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayele, Y. Ayer, R. Ayuk, T.B. Azzopardi, P.S. Babalola, T.K. Babazadeh, A. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Bali, A.G. Banach, M. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Barrero, L.H. Basaleem, H. Bassat, Q. Basu, A. Baune, B.T. Baynes, H.W. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Bekele, B.B. Belachew, A.B. Belay, A.G. Belay, E. Belay, S.A. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Bergeron, G. Berhane, A. Berman, A.E. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Bertolacci, G.J. Beuran, M. Bhattarai, S. Bhaumik, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Birlik, S.M. Birungi, C. 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Mansournia, M.A. Mantovani, L.G. Mapoma, C.C. Marami, D. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marina, S. Martins-Melo, F.R. März, W. Marzan, M.B. Mashamba-Thompson, T.P. Masiye, F. Mason-Jones, A.J. Massenburg, B.B. Mathur, M.R. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McGrath, J.J. Mehata, S. Mehendale, S.M. Mehndiratta, M.M. Mehrotra, R. Mehrzadi, S. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Mekonnen, T.C. Meles, H.G. Meles, K.G. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengesha, M.M. Mengistu, D.T. Mengistu, G. Mensah, G.A. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Mezgebe, H.B. Miangotar, Y. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Miller, T.R. Miller-Petrie, M.K. Mini, G.K. Mirabi, P. Mirica, A. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Moazen, B. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani, M. Mohammed, M.A. Mohammed, S. Mokdad, A.H. Mola, G.D. Molokhia, M. Monasta, L. Montañez, J.C. Moradi, G. Moradi, M. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morgado-Da-Costa, J. Mori, R. Morrison, S.D. Mosapour, A. Moschos, M.M. Mousavi, S.M. Muche, A.A. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Mukhopadhyay, S. Murphy, T.B. Muller, K. Murthy, G.V.S. Musa, J. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Muthupandian, S. Nachega, J.B. Nagel, G. Naghavi, M. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Naik, P. Najafi, F. Naldi, L. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Nascimento, B.R. Nawaz, H. Ncama, B.P. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngalesoni, F.N. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, G. Nguyen, L.H. Nguyen, T.H. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nirayo, Y.L. Nisar, M.I. Nixon, M.R. Nomura, S. Noroozi, M. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M. Nowroozi, M.R. Nyandwi, A. Nyasulu, P.S. Odell, C.M. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogah, O.S. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Okoro, A. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Olusanya, B.O. Olusanya, J.O. Ong, S.K. Ortiz, A. Osgood-Zimmerman, A. Ota, E. Otieno, B.A. Otstavnov, S.S. Owolabi, M.O. Oyekale, A.S. Mahesh, P.A. Pakhale, S. Pakhare, A.P. Pana, A. Panda, B.K. 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Tsilimparis, N. Car, L.T. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Uzun, S.B. Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Vaidya, G. Valdez, P.R. Varavikova, E. Varughese, S. Vasankari, T.J. Vasconcelos, A.M.N. Venketasubramanian, N. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Vosoughi, K. Vujcic, I.S. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Walson, J.L. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. Westerman, R. Whiteford, H. Widecka, J. Widecka, K. Wijeratne, T. Winkler, A.S. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Wu, S. Wyper, G.M.A. Xu, G. Yamada, T. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Ye, P. Yentür, G.K. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zadnik, V. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zare, Z. Zeleke, M.M. Zenebe, Z.M. Zerfu, T.A. Zhang, X. Zhao, X.-J. Zhou, M. Zhu, J. Zimsen, S.R.M. Zodpey, S. Zoeckler, L. Lopez, A.D. Lim, S.S. GBD 2017 Population Fertility Collaborators

Abstract

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license

Published
2018

7. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

Author

Sartorius B., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Villafaina S., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Vosoughi K., Vujcic I.S., Wagner G.R., Wagnew F.W.S., Waheed Y., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Wassie M.M., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss D.J., Weiss J., Weldegebreal F., Weldegwergs K.G., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Widecka J., Widecka K., Wijeratne T., Winkler A.S., Wiysonge C.S., Wolfe C.D.A., Wondemagegn S.A., Wu S., Wyper G.M.A., Xu G., Yadav R., Yakob B., Yamada T., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Yasin Y.J., Ye P., Yearwood J.A., YentA1/4r G.K., Yeshaneh A., Yimer E.M., Yip P., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., York H.W., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Yousefifard M., Yu C., Zachariah G., Zadnik V., Zafar S., Zaidi Z., Zaman S.B., Zamani M., Zare Z., Zeeb H., Zeleke M.M., Zenebe Z.M., Zerfu T.A., Zhang K., Zhang X., Zhou M., Zhu J., Zodpey S., Zucker I., Zuhlke L.J.J., Lopez A.D., Gakidou E., Murray C.J.L., de Courten B., Thrift A.G., Dicker D., Nguyen G., Abate D., Abate K.H., Abay S.M., Abbafati C., Abbasi N., Abbastabar H., Abd-Allah F., Abdela J., Abdelalim A., Abdel-Rahman O., Abdi A., Abdollahpour I., Abdulkader R.S., Abdurahman A.A., Abebe H.T., Abebe M., Abebe Z., Abebo T.A., Aboyans V., Abraha H.N., Abrham A.R., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M.E., Accrombessi M.M.K., Acharya P., Adebayo O.M., Adedeji I.A., Adedoyin R.A., Adekanmbi V., Adetokunboh O.O., Adhena B.M., Adhikari T.B., Adib M.G., Adou A.K., Adsuar J.C., Afarideh M., Afshin A., Agarwal G., Aggarwal R., Aghayan S.A., Agrawal S., Agrawal A., Ahmadi M., Ahmadi A., Ahmadieh H., Ahmed M.L.C.B., Ahmed S., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Akanda A.S., Akbari M.E., Akibu M., Akinyemi R.O., Akinyemiju T., Akseer N., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alebel A., Aleman A.V., Alene K.A., Al-Eyadhy A., Ali R., Alijanzadeh M., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Aljunid S.M., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Allen C.A., Alonso J., Al-Raddadi R.M., Alsharif U., Altirkawi K., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Amini E., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Anber N.H., Andrei C.L., Androudi S., Animut M.D., Anjomshoa M., Anlay D.Z., Ansari H., Ansariadi A., Ansha M.G., Antonio C.A.T., Appiah S.C.Y., Aremu O., Areri H.A., ArnlAv J., Arora M., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Asadi-Lari M., Asayesh H., Asfaw E.T., Asgedom S.W., Assadi R., Ataro Z., Atey T.M.M., Athari S.S., Atique S., Atre S.R., Atteraya M.S., Attia E.F., Ausloos M., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Awuah B., Ayala Quintanilla B.P., Ayele H.T., Ayele Y., Ayer R., Ayuk T.B., Azzopardi P.S., Azzopardi-Muscat N., Badali H., Badawi A., Balakrishnan K., Bali A.G., Banach M., Banstola A., Barac A., Barboza M.A., Barquera S., Barrero L.H., Basaleem H., Bassat Q., Basu A., Basu S., Baune B.T., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Bedi N., Beghi E., Behzadifar M., BACopyrightjot Y., Bekele B.B., Belachew A.B., Belay A.G., Belay E., Belay S.A., Belay Y.A., Bell M.L., Bello A.K., Bennett D.A., Bensenor I.M., Berhane A., Berman A.E., Bernabe E., Bernstein R.S., Bertolacci G.J., Beuran M., Beyranvand T., Bhala N., Bhatia E., Bhatt S., Bhattarai S., Bhaumik S., Bhutta Z.A., Biadgo B., Bijani A., Bikbov B., Bililign N., Bin Sayeed M.S., Birlik S.M., Birungi C., Bisanzio D., Biswas T., BjArge T., Bleyer A., Bora Basara B., Bose D., Bosetti C., Boufous S., Bourne R., Brady O.J., Bragazzi N.L., Brant L.C., Brazinova A., Breitborde N.J.K., Brenner H., Britton G., Brugha T., Burke K.E., Busse R., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Callender C.S.K.H., Campos-Nonato I.R., Campuzano Rincon J.C., Cano J., Car M., CArdenas R., Carreras G., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Carvalho F., CastaA+/-eda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo Rivas J., Castro F., CatalA-LApez F., Aavlin A., Cerin E., Chaiah Y., Champs A.P., Chang H.-Y., Chang J.-C., Chattopadhyay A., Chaturvedi P., Chen W., Chiang P.P.-C., Chimed-Ochir O., Chin K.L., Chisumpa V.H., Chitheer A., Choi J.-Y.J., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Chung S.-C., Cicuttini F.M., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Claro R.M., Cohen A.J., Collado-Mateo D., Constantin M.-M., Conti S., Cooper C., Cooper L.T., Cortesi P.A., Cortinovis M., Cousin E., Criqui M.H., Cromwell E.A., Crowe C.S., Crump J.A., Cucu A., Cunningham M., Daba A.K., Dachew B.A., Dadi A.F., Dandona L., Dandona R., Dang A.K., Dargan P.I., Daryani A., Das S.K., Das Gupta R., Das Neves J., Dasa T.T., Dash A.P., Davis Weaver N., Davitoiu D.V., Davletov K., Dayama A., De la Hoz F.P., De leo D., De Neve J.-W., Degefa M.G., Degenhardt L., Degfie T.T., Deiparine S., Dellavalle R.P., Demoz G.T., Demtsu B.B., Denova-GutiACopyrightrrez E., Deribe K., Dervenis N., Des Jarlais D.C., Dessie G.A., Dey S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhimal M., Ding E.L., Djalalinia S., Doku D.T., Dolan K.A., Donnelly C.A., Dorsey E.R., Douwes-Schultz D., Doyle K.E., Drake T.M., Driscoll T.R., Dubey M., Dubljanin E., Duken E.E., Duncan B.B., Duraes A.R., Ebrahimi H., Ebrahimpour S., Edessa D., Edvardsson D., Eggen A.E., El Bcheraoui C., El Sayed Zaki M., 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Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengistu D.T., Mengistu G., Mensah G.A., Mereta S.T., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mestrovic T., Mezgebe H.B., Miangotar Y., Miazgowski B., Miazgowski T., Miller T.R., Mini G.K., Mirica A., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A.T., Moazen B., Moges N.A., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadi M., Mohammadifard N., Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani M., Mohammadnia-Afrouzi M., Mohammed S., Mohammed M.A., Mohan V., Mokdad A.H., Molokhia M., Monasta L., Moradi G., Moradi M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moradinazar M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Moreno VelAsquez I., Morgado-Da-costa J., Morrison S.D., Mosapour A., Moschos M.M., Mousavi S.M., Muche A.A., Muchie K.F., Mueller U.O., Mukhopadhyay S., Mullany E.C., Muller K., Murhekar M., Murphy T.B., Murthy G.V.S., Murthy S., Musa J., Musa K.I., Mustafa G., Muthupandian S., Nachega J.B., Nagel G., Naghavi M., Naheed A., Nahvijou A., Naik G., Nair S., Najafi F., Nangia V., Nansseu J.R., Nascimento B.R., Nawaz H., Ncama B.P., Neamati N., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Neupane 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Polinder S., Pond C.D., Popova S., Postma M.J., Pourmalek F., Pourshams A., Poustchi H., Prabhakaran D., Prakash V., Prakash S., Prasad N., Qorbani M., Quistberg D.A., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rafiei A., Rahim F., Rahimi K., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Ur Rahman M.H., Rahman M.A., Ur Rahman S., Rai R.K., Rajati F., Rajsic S., Raju S.B., Ram U., Ranabhat C.L., Ranjan P., Ranta A., Rasella D., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Ray S.E., Razo-GarcA-a C., Rego M.A.S., Rehm J., Reiner R.C., Reinig N., Reis C., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Resnikoff S., Rezaei S., Rezaeian S., Rezai M.S., Riahi S.M., Ribeiro A.L.P., Riojas H., Rios-Blancas M.J., Roba K.T., Robinson S.R., Roever L., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Roshchin D.O., Rostami A., Rothenbacher D., Rubagotti E., Ruhago G.M., Saadat S., Sabde Y.D., Sachdev P.S., Saddik B., Sadeghi E., Saeedi Moghaddam S., Safari H., Safari Y., Safari-Faramani R., Safdarian M., Safi S., Safiri S., Sagar R., Sahebkar A., Sahraian M.A., Sajadi H.S., 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Tortajada-GirbACopyrights M., Tovani-Palone M.R., Towbin J.A., Tran B.X., Tran K.B., Tripathi S., Tripathy S.P., Truelsen T.C., Truong N.T., Tsadik A.G., Tsilimparis N., Tudor Car L., Tuzcu E.M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Ullah I., Usman M.S., Uthman O.A., Uzun S.B., Vaduganathan M., Vaezi A., Vaidya G., Valdez P.R., Varavikova E., Varughese S., Vasankari T.J., and Vasconcelos A.M.N.

Abstract

Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Method(s): The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent comp

Published
2018

8. Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

Author

Servan-Mori E., Usman M.S., Uthman O.A., Vaduganathan M., Vaezi A., Vaidya G., Valdez P.R., Van Donkelaar A., Varavikova E., Vasankari T.J., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Villafaina S., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vollmer S., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Vosoughi K., Vujcic I.S., Wagner G.R., Wagnew F.S., Waheed Y., Walson J.L., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Wassie M.M., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss J., Weldegebreal F., Weldegwergs K.G., Werdecker A., Werkneh A.A., West T.E., Westerman R., Whisnant J.L., Whiteford H.A., Widecka J., Widecka K., Wijeratne T., Wilner L.B., Winkler A.S., Wiyeh A.B., Wiysonge C.S., Wolde H.F., Wolfe C.D.A., Wu S., Xavier D., Xu G., Xu R., Yadollahpour A., Jabbari S.H.Y., Yakob B., Yamada T., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Yasin Y.J., Ye P., Yearwood J.A., Yeshaneh A., Yimer E.M., Yip P., Yirsaw B.D., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Yonga G., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Yousefifard M., Yu C., Zaman S.B., Zamani M., Zare Z., Zavala-Arciniega L., Zegeye D.T., Zegeye E.A., Zeleke A.J., Zendehdel K., Zerfu T.A., Zhang A.L., Zhang X., Zhou M., Zhu J., Zimsen S.R.M., Zodpey S., Zoeckler L., Zucker I., Zuhlke L.J.J., Lim S.S., Murray C.J.L., De Courten B., Hughes C., Thrift A.G., Lozano R., Fullman N., Abate D., Abay S.M., Abbafati C., Abbasi N., Abbastabar H., Abd-Allah F., Abdela J., Abdelalim A., Abdel-Rahman O., Abdi A., Abdollahpour I., Abdulkader R.S., Abebe N.D., Abebe Z., Abejie A.N., Abera S.F., Abil O.Z., Aboyans V., Abraha H.N., Abrham A.R., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M., Abyu G.Y., Accrombessi M.M.K., Acharya D., Acharya P., Adamu A.A., Adebayo O.M., Adedeji I.A., Adedoyin R.A., Adekanmbi V., Adetokunboh O.O., Adhena B.M., Adhikari T.B., Adib M.G., Adou A.K., Adsuar J.C., Afarideh M., Afshari M., Afshin A., Agarwal G., Aghayan S.A., Agius D., Agrawal A., Agrawal S., Ahmadi A., Ahmadi M., Ahmadieh H., Ahmed M.B., Ahmed S., Akalu T.Y., Akanda A.S., Akbari M.E., Akibu M., Akinyemi R.O., Akinyemiju T., Akseer N., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alam T., Albujeer A., Alebel A., Alene K.A., Al-Eyadhy A., Alhabib S., Ali R., Alijanzadeh M., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Aljunid S.M., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Allen C.A., Almasi A., Al-Maskari F., Al-Mekhlafi H.M., Alonso J., Al-Raddadi R.M., Alsharif U., Altirkawi K., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Amenu K., Amini E., Ammar W., Anber N.H., Anderson J.A., Andrei C.L., Androudi S., Animut M.D., Anjomshoa M., Ansari H., Ansariadi A., Ansha M.G., Antonio C.A.T., Anwari P., Appiah L.T., Aremu O., Areri H.A., Arnlov J., Arora M., Aryal K.K., Asayesh H., Asfaw E.T., Asgedom S.W., Asghar R.J., Assadi R., Ataro Z., Atique S., Atre S.R., Atteraya M.S., Ausloos M., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Quintanilla B.P.A., Ayele H.T., Ayele Y., Ayer R., Azarpazhooh M.R., Azzopardi P.S., Azzopardi-Muscat N., Babalola T.K., Babazadeh A., Badali H., Badawi A., Balakrishnan K., Bali A.G., Banach M., Banerjee A., Banoub J.A.M., Banstola A., Barac A., Barboza M.A., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T.W., Barrero L.H., Barthelemy C.M., Bassat Q., Basu A., Basu S., Battista R.J., Baune B.T., Baynes H.W., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Bedi N., Beghi E., Behzadifar M., Bejot Y., Bekele B.B., Belachew A.B., Belay A.G., Belay S.A., Belay Y.A., Bell M.L., Bello A.K., Bennett D.A., Bensenor I.M., Benzian H., Berhane A., Berhe A.K., Berman A.E., Bernabe E., Bernstein R.S., Bertolacci G.J., Beuran M., Beyranvand T., Bhala N., Bhalla A., Bhansali A., Bhattarai S., Bhaumik S., Bhutta Z.A., Biadgo B., Biehl M.H., Bijani A., Bikbov B., Bililign N., Sayeed M.S.B., Birlik S.M., Birungi C., Bisanzio D., Biswas T., Bitew H., Bizuneh H., Bjertness E., Bobasa E.M., Boufous S., Bourne R., Bozorgmehr K., Bragazzi N.L., Brainin M., Brant L.C., Brauer M., Brazinova A., Breitborde N.J.K., Briant P.S., Britton G., Brugha T., Bukhman G., Busse R., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Callender C.S.K.H., Campos-Nonato I.R., Rincon J.C.C., Cano J., Car J., Car M., Cardenas R., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Carvalho F., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Rivas J.C., Castro F., Causey K., Cavlin A., Cercy K.M., Cerin E., Chaiah Y., Chalek J., Chang H.-Y., Chang J.-C., Chattopadhyay A., Chattu V.K., Chaturvedi P., Chiang P.P.-C., Chin K.L., Chisumpa V.H., Chitheer A., Choi J.-Y.J., Chowdhury R., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Chung S.-C., Cicuttini F.M., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Claro R.M., Classen T.K.D., Cohen A.J., Collado-Mateo D., Cooper C., Cooper L.T., Cornaby L., Cortinovis M., Costa M., Cousin E., Cromwell E.A., Crowe C.S., Cunningham M., Daba A.K., Dadi A.F., Dandona L., Dandona R., Dang A.K., Dargan P.I., Daryani A., Das S.K., Das Gupta R., Das Neves J., Dasa T.T., Dash A.P., Davis A.C., Davitoiu D.V., Davletov K., Dayama A., De Leo D., Neve J.W.D., De Steur H., Degefa M.G., Degenhardt L., Degfie T.T., Deiparine S., Dellavalle R.P., Demoz G.T., Demtsu B., Denova-Gutierrez E., Deribe K., Dervenis N., Dessie G.A., Dey S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhimal M., Dicker D., Dinberu 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Kesavachandran C.N., Khader Y.S., Khafaei B., Khafaie M.A., Khajavi A., Khalid N., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khan M.S., Khan M.A., Khang Y.-H., Khanna T., Khater M.M., Khatony A., Khazaeipour Z., Khazaie H., Khoja A.T., Khosravi A., Khosravi M.H., Khubchandani J., Kiadaliri A.A., Kiarie H.W., Kibret G.D., Kiirithio D.N., Kim D., Kim J.Y., Kim Y.-E., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kinra S., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K., Kissoon N., Kivimaki M., Kocarnik J.M., Kochhar S., Kokubo Y., Kolola T., Kopec J.A., Kosek M.N., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M.A., Krishan K., Krohn K.J., Defo B.K., Kucuk Bicer B., Kudom A.A., Kulikoff X.R., Kumar G.A., Kumar M., Kumar P., Kutz M.J., Kyu H.H., Lachat C., Lad D.P., Lad S.D., Lafranconi A., Lagat A.K., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Lam H., Lami F.H., Lamichhane P., Lan Q., Lang J.J., Lansingh V.C., Lansky S., Larson H.J., Larsson A.O., Laryea D.O., Lassi Z.S., Latifi A., Lau K.M.-M., Laxmaiah A., Lazarus J.V., Leasher J.L., Lebedev G., Ledesma J.R., Lee J.B., Lee P.H., Leever A.T., Leigh J., Leinsalu M., Leshargie C.T., Leung J., Lewycka S., Li S., Li X., Li Y., Liang J., Liang X., Liben M.L., Lim L.-L., Limenih M.A., Linn S., Liu S., Liu Y., Lodha R., Logroscino G., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Lucchesi L.R., Lyons R.A., Macarayan E.R.K., Mackay M.T., Maddison E.R., Madotto F., Maghavani D.P., Magis-Rodriguez C., Mahotra N.B., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manda A.-L., Mandarano-Filho L.G., Mangalam S., Manguerra H., Mansournia M.A., Mapoma C.C., Maravilla J.C., Marcenes W., Marks A., Martin R.V., Martins S.C.O., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Mashamba-Thompson T.P., Massenburg B.B., Mathur M.R., Maulik P.K., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGrath J.J., McKee M., McMahon B.J., Mehata S., Mehndiratta M.M., Mehrotra R., Mehta K.M., Mehta V., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Mekonen T., Mekonnen T.C.C., Meles H.G., Melese A., Melku M., Memiah P.T.N., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengistu D.T., Mengistu G., Mensah G.A., Mensink G.B.M., Mereta S.T., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mestrovic T., Mezgebe H.B., Miazgowski B., Miazgowski T., Millear A.I., Miller T.R., Miller-Petrie M.K., Milne G.J., Mini G.K., Minnig S.P., Mirabi P., Mirarefin M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A.T., Mitchell P.B., Moazen B., Moghadamnia A.A., Mohajer B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadi M., Mohammadifard N., Mohammadnia-Afrouzi M., Mohammed M.A., Mohammed S., Mohan M.B.V., Mohan V., Mohebi F., Moitra M., Mokdad A.H., Molokhia M., Monasta L., Montanez J.C., Moosazadeh M., Moradi G., Moradi M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moradinazar M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Morgado-da-Costa J., Morisaki N., Morrison S.D., Mosapour A., Moschos M.M., Mountjoy-Venning W.C., Mouodi S., Mousavi S.M., Muche A.A., Muchie K.F., Mueller U.O., Muhammed O.S.S., Mukhopadhyay S., Mullany E.C., Muller K., Mumford J.E., Murhekar M., Murthy G.V.S., Murthy S., Musa J., Musa K.I., Mustafa G., Muthupandian S., Nabhan A.F., Nachega J.B., Nagarajan 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Abstract

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Method(s): We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile and 100 as the 97.5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the prob

Published
2018

9. Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2017: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

Author

Global Burden of Disease Cancer Collaboration, Fitzmaurice C, Abate D, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdel-Rahman O, Abdelalim A, Abdoli A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulle ASM, Abebe ND, Abraha HN, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abualhasan A, Adedeji IA, Advani SM, Afarideh M, Afshari M, Aghaali M, Agius D, Agrawal S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadian E, Ahmadpour E, Ahmed MB, Akbari ME, Akinyemiju T, Al-Aly Z, AlAbdulKader AM, Alahdab F, Alam T, Alamene GM, Alemnew BTT, Alene KA, Alinia C, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Bakeshei FA, Almadi MAH, Almasi-Hashiani A, Alsharif U, Alsowaidi S, Alvis-Guzman N, Amini E, Amini S, Amoako YA, Anbari Z, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Anjomshoa M, Ansari F, Ansariadi A, Appiah SCY, Arab-Zozani M, Arabloo J, Arefi Z, Aremu O, Areri HA, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Asfaw ET, Ashagre AF, Assadi R, Ataeinia B, Atalay HT, Ataro Z, Atique S, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Awoke N, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayanore MA, Ayele HT, Babaee E, Bacha U, Badawi A, Bagherzadeh M, Bagli E, Balakrishnan S, Balouchi A, Bärnighausen TW, Battista RJ, Behzadifar M, Bekele BB, Belay YB, Belayneh YM, Berfield KKS, Berhane A, Bernabe E, Beuran M, Bhakta N, Bhattacharyya K, Biadgo B, Bijani A, Bin Sayeed MS, Birungi C, Bisignano C, Bitew H, Bjørge T, Bleyer A, Bogale KA, Bojia HA, Borzì AM, Bosetti C, Bou-Orm IR, Brenner H, Brewer JD, Briko AN, Briko NI, Bustamante-Teixeira MT, Butt ZA, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castro C, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Cerin E, Chaiah Y, Chanie WF, Chattu VK, Chaturvedi P, Chauhan NS, Chehrazi M, Chiang PP, Chichiabellu TY, Chido-Amajuoyi OG, Chimed-Ochir O, Choi JJ, Christopher DJ, Chu DT, Constantin MM, Costa VM, Crocetti E, Crowe CS, Curado MP, Dahlawi SMA, Damiani G, Darwish AH, Daryani A, das Neves J, Demeke FM, Demis AB, Demissie BW, Demoz GT, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Derakhshani A, Deribe KS, Desai R, Desalegn BB, Desta M, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Diaz D, Dinberu MTT, Djalalinia S, Doku DT, Drake TM, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duken EE, Ebrahimi H, Effiong A, Eftekhari A, El Sayed I, Zaki MES, El-Jaafary SI, El-Khatib Z, Elemineh DA, Elkout H, Ellenbogen RG, Elsharkawy A, Emamian MH, Endalew DA, Endries AY, Eshrati B, Fadhil I, Fallah V, Faramarzi M, Farhangi MA, Farioli A, Farzadfar F, Fentahun N, Fernandes E, Feyissa GT, Filip I, Fischer F, Fisher JL, Force LM, Foroutan M, Freitas M, Fukumoto T, Futran ND, Gallus S, Gankpe FG, Gayesa RT, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremeskel GG, Gedefaw GA, Gelaw BK, Geta B, Getachew S, Gezae KE, Ghafourifard M, Ghajar A, Ghashghaee A, Gholamian A, Gill PS, Ginindza TTG, Girmay A, Gizaw M, Gomez RS, Gopalani SV, Gorini G, Goulart BNG, Grada A, Ribeiro Guerra M, Guimaraes ALS, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Hadkhale K, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hanfore LK, Haro JM, Hasankhani M, Hasanzadeh A, Hassen HY, Hay RJ, Hay SI, Henok A, Henry NJ, Herteliu C, Hidru HD, Hoang CL, Hole MK, Hoogar P, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hosseini M, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Househ M, Hussen MM, Ileanu B, Ilic MD, Innos K, Irvani SSN, Iseh KR, Islam SMS, Islami F, Jafari Balalami N, Jafarinia M, Jahangiry L, Jahani MA, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic M, James SL, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman S, Jee SH, Jenabi E, Jha RP, Jonas JB, Jonnagaddala J, Joo T, Jungari SB, Jürisson M, Kabir A, Kamangar F, Karch A, Karimi N, Karimian A, Kasaeian A, Kasahun GG, Kassa B, Kassa TD, Kassaw MW, Kaul A, Keiyoro PN, Kelbore AG, Kerbo AA, Khader YS, Khalilarjmandi M, Khan EA, Khan G, Khang YH, Khatab K, Khater A, Khayamzadeh M, Khazaee-Pool M, Khazaei S, Khoja AT, Khosravi MH, Khubchandani J, Kianipour N, Kim D, Kim YJ, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kissimova-Skarbek K, Komaki H, Koyanagi A, Krohn KJ, Bicer BK, Kugbey N, Kumar V, Kuupiel D, La Vecchia C, Lad DP, Lake EA, Lakew AM, Lal DK, Lami FH, Lan Q, Lasrado S, Lauriola P, Lazarus JV, Leigh J, Leshargie CT, Liao Y, Limenih MA, Listl S, Lopez AD, Lopukhov PD, Lunevicius R, Madadin M, Magdeldin S, El Razek HMA, Majeed A, Maleki A, Malekzadeh R, Manafi A, Manafi N, Manamo WA, 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Subjects
Cancer Research, age distribution, cancer incidence, Colorectal cancer, GBD, DALY, cancer risk, Global Health, Global Burden of Disease, disease burden, cause of death, trachea cancer, 0302 clinical medicine, systematic review, Neoplasms, quality adjusted life year, 11. Sustainability, Epidemiology, cancer mortality, 030212 general & internal medicine, years of life lost, Stomach cancer, fertility, disabled person, stomach cancer, disability-adjusted life year, nonhodgkin lymphoma, Incidence, 1. No poverty, prostate cancer, 3. Good health, income, Oncology, risk factor, 030220 oncology & carcinogenesis, bladder cancer, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, medicine.medical_specialty, sex difference, 3122 Cancers, colorectal cancer, bronchus cancer, Article, educational status, Causes of cancer, liver cancer, 03 medical and health sciences, Breast cancer, breast cancer, Environmental health, geographic distribution, medicine, Humans, Disabled Persons, human, business.industry, Correction, Cancer, non melanoma skin cancer, medicine.disease, years lived with disability, lung cancer, Years of potential life lost, Skin cancer, global disease burden, business, neoplasm, RC, uterine cervix cancer
Abstract

Importance: Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data. Objective: To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning. Evidence Review: We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-Adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence. Findings: In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs). Conclusions and Relevance: The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care. © 2019 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.

Published
2019
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