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In this paper, I examine the relationship between patrilocal norms that dictate elderly coresidence between parents and sons, and the sex ratio at birth. I argue that concerns over old age support are critical in explaining excess mortality among daughters. First, I demonstrate that sex ratios and coresidence rates are positively correlated when looking across countries, within countries across districts, and within districts across ethnic groups. Second, in a series of case studies where I exploit natural experiments, I find that sex ratios decline in response to expansions in the availability of pensions but increase when pensions become less reliable.

This study examines the historical origins of son preference. I test a hypothesis that son preference emerges from humanity’s adoption of intensive agriculture for subsistence. This increases the incentive to adopt patrilocal residence norms after marriage, and for sons to care for their parents during old age. Consistent with this hypothesis, I present evidence that the descendants of societies which engaged in intensive agriculture have higher rates of coresidence with sons and higher sex ratios at birth today. This is found when looking across countries, within countries across regions, and within regions across ethnic groups. The results highlight the connection between historical subsistence patterns and modern demographic outcomes.

Prior to 1996, Israelis in collective communities (kibbutzim) shared the costs of raising children equally. This paper examines the impact of privatizing costs of children on the behavior of young couples using universal microdata on kibbutz members. Exploiting variation in the increase in cost sharing across kibbutzim, we estimate that lifetime fertility declined by 0.59 children in the cohorts of affected parents. We also examine the exit decisions of members, and find that couples were most likely to leave the kibbutz if they were either higher income or lower fertility. This pattern is also observed among Israeli emigrants, in which higher educated and lower fertility couples are more likely to leave Israel.

This paper examines the relationship between income, pollution, and mortality in China from 1991-2012. Using first-difference models, we document a robust positive association between city-level GDP and life expectancy. We also find a negative association between city-level particulate air pollution exposure and life expectancy that is driven by elevated cardiorespiratory mortality rates. The results suggest that while China's unprecedented economic growth over the last two decades is associated with health improvements, pollution has served as a countervailing force.

In 1987, 4 per cent of girls were adopted within China. Why? Unlike infanticide, abandonment rids parents of daughters while preserving the supply of potential brides. In fact, an erstwhile tradition common in Fujian and Jiangxi provinces had parents of sons adopting an infant girl to serve as a future daughter-in-law and household help. Analysing a nationally representative 1992 survey of children, we found that: (1) girl adoptions were concentrated in the above-mentioned provinces; (2) girls were predominantly adopted by families with sons; (3) adopted girls faced substantial disadvantage as measured by school attendance at ages 8-13. In the 1990s, as the sex ratio at birth climbed, were girls aborted rather than abandoned? Observing that in the 2000 census too many girls appear in families with older sons, we estimated that at least 1/25 girls were abandoned in the 1990s, a proportion that in Fujian and Jiangxi may have peaked at 1/10 in 1994.

Significance An estimated 4.5 billion people are currently exposed to particulate matter (PM) levels at least twice the concentration that the WHO considers safe. Existing evidence linking health to air pollution is largely based on populations exposed to only modest levels of PM and almost entirely composed of observational studies, which are likely to confound air pollution with other unobserved determinants of health. This study uses quasiexperimental variation in particulate matter smaller than 10 μm (PM 10 ) generated by an arbitrary Chinese policy to find that a 10-μg/m 3 increase in PM 10 reduces life expectancy by 0.64 years. The estimates imply that bringing all of China into compliance with its Class I standards for PM 10 would save 3.7 billion life-years.

This paper finds that a 10 μg/m3 increase in airborne particulate matter (PM10) reduces life expectancy by 0.64 years (95% CI: 0.21, 1.07). This estimate is derived from quasi-experimental variation in PM10 generated by China’s Huai River Policy, which provides free or heavily subsidized coal for indoor heating during the winter to cities north of the Huai River but not to the south. The findings are derived from a regression discontinuity design based on distance from the Huai River, and are robust to using parametric and non-parametric estimation methods, different kernel types and bandwidth sizes, and adjustment for a rich set of demographic and behavioral covariates. Furthermore, the shorter lifespans are almost entirely due to elevated rates of cardiorespiratory mortality, suggesting that PM10 is the causal factor. The estimates imply that bringing all of China into compliance with its Class I standards for PM10 would save 3.7 billion life years.

In this paper, we link industry-level data on offshoring activities of U.S. multinational firms, import penetration, and export shares with individual level worker data from the Current Population Surveys. We examine whether increasing globalization through offshoring or trade has led to reallocation of labor, both within and out of manufacturing, and measure its impact on the wages of domestic workers. We also control for the "routineness" of individual occupations. Our results suggest that (1) offshoring to high wage countries is positively correlated with U.S. manufacturing employment (2) offshoring to low wage countries is associated with U.S. employment declines (3) wages for workers who remain in manufacturing are generally positively affected by offshoring; in particular, we find that wages are positively associated with an increase in U.S. multinational employment in high income locations (4) much of the negative effects of globalization operate through downward pressure on wages of workers who leave manufacturing to take jobs in agriculture or services and (5) the downward pressure on aggregate U.S. wages operating through import competition has been quite important for some occupations. This effect has been overlooked because it operates across, not within, industries.

In the wake of the One Child Policy (1979), China has experienced an explosion in the sex ratio at birth, and there are 25 million more men than women below the age of 20 (2005 census). In this paper, we examine the implications of large numbers of men fail ing to marry on the supply and demand dynamics of sex work, with a focus on how this may affect the prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We begin with a brief history of prostitution in China, and present an account of the massive increase in sex work following the economic reforms in the late 1970s. We then analyze the current dynamics of demand and supply for sex work in China, using both national census data and detailed microdata on sex workers. We find a clear link between high population sex ratios, the prevalence of sex work, and STI rates. We conclude our analysis with projections for the future, and a discussion of policy responses in light of an anticipated increase in sex work.

Cognitive performance during high-stakes exams can be affected by random disturbances that, even if transitory, may have permanent consequences. We evaluate this hypothesis among Israeli students who took a series of matriculation exams between 2000 and 2002. Exploiting variation across the same student taking multiple exams, we find that transitory PM2.5 exposure is associated with a significant decline in student performance. We then examine these students in 2010 and find that PM2.5 exposure during exams is negatively associated with postsecondary educational attainment and earnings. The results highlight how reliance on noisy signals of student quality can lead to allocative inefficiency. (JEL I21, I23, I26, J24, J31, Q51, Q53)

Because sex ratios at birth have risen sharply in China in recent decades, an increasing proportion of men will be unable to find a bride, and will face old age without the support of a wife and children. We project the proportions of never-married men and their geographical distribution in China in the coming decades. Our projections assume that two tendencies in current marriage patterns will persist: that women will continue to migrate to wealthier areas, and to prefer men with better prospects. We find that, by 2030, more than 20 per cent of men in China aged 30–39 will never have married, and that the proportion will be especially high among poor men in low-income provinces that are least able to provide social protection programmes. The projected geographic concentration of bachelors could be socially disruptive, and the results suggest a need to expand the coverage and central financing of social protection programmes.

China's rapid industrialization has led to a severe deterioration in water quality in the country's lakes and rivers. By exploiting variation in pollution across China's river basins, I estimate that a deterioration of water quality by a single grade (on a six-grade scale) increases the digestive cancer death rate by 9.7%. The analysis rules out other potential explanations such as smoking rates, dietary patterns, and air pollution. I estimate that doubling China's levy rates for wastewater dumping would save roughly 17,000 lives per year but require an additional [dollar]500 million in annual spending on wastewater treatment. © 2011 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Hanink D. M., Ebenstein A. Y. and Cromley R. G. Spatial analysis of selected manufacturing and service sectors in China's economy using county employment data for 1990 and 2000, Regional Studies. This paper provides a comparative analysis of the spatial distribution of employment in forty-one economic sectors in China in 1990 and in 2000. Sectors are approximately split between manufacturing and services. Spatial distributions of employment by sector are analysed at the county level, and relative sectoral specialization at the county level is also considered. Manufacturing and service clusters are identified in both years using factor analysis, and the resulting factor scores are used in mapping their spatial extent. In general, geographical concentration in Chinese manufacturing accelerated between 1990 and 2000, while services became more spatially uniform in their distribution. Hanink D. M., Ebenstein A. Y. et Cromley R. G. Une analyse geographique des secteurs de l'industrie et des services choisis de...

Wage-based evidence of returns to external scale in China’s manufacturing in 2004 is assessed using county-level units of observation. Two models are used: one with population and percent manufacturing employment as measures of urbanization and localization, respectively, and the other with population density and total manufacturing employment. Global results estimated from spatial error models and local results from geographically weighted regressions indicate that urbanization economies of scale, measured in terms of population but not population density, and localization economies of scale, measured in terms of percent of employment in manufacturing or total manufacturing employment, are apparent—but only when internal scale of production is not included as an explanatory factor in the models. Economies of scale are still outcomes of the models, but only when the urbanization, localization, and internal scale factors are considered in combination. The results not only illustrate particular characteristics with respect to recent returns in China’s manufacturing, they are also interesting with respect to schools of thought concerning increasing returns as externality effects.

Application inconvenience is one popular explanation for why many individuals do not receive the social benefits for which they are eligible. Applications take time and some individuals may decide that the financial benefits do not outweigh these time costs. This paper investigates this explanation using cross-state variation in administrative changes that made applying for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits substantially more convenient over the past decade. We find that the introduction of phone- and Internet-based claiming did not have an appreciable impact on overall UI take-up, nor did it lead to a shift toward recipients that are higher income or likely to be receiving the maximum benefit amount. These findings are inconsistent with a time- and transaction-cost explanation for low take-up, since remote UI claiming is less time intensive. This suggests that reducing application barriers alone may not be an effective tool for increasing program participation. © 2010 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.

This paper provides an examination of China's residential real estate market at the county level using data from that country's 2000 census. The market is a new one, having only been fully established in 1998. The analysis in the paper is in the form of an aggregate (county-level) hedonic model specified in two versions. Global parameters results are estimated using spatial error model specifications while more local effects are estimated by geographically weighted regression. Global results are typical in that structural characteristics such as floor space and contextual characteristics such as level of in-migration are important in residential prices. Local results, however, indicate significant spatial variation in the effect of both structural amenities and locational context on housing prices. In a simpler specification, rents are shown to respond positively to both median house prices levels and the supply of apartments available at market prices, but also with significant spatial variation across China.

Many scholars argue that the persistence of son preference in China is driven by greater anticipated old-age support from sons than from daughters and the absence of formal financial mechanisms for families to save for retirement. The introduction of a voluntary old-age pension program in rural China in the 1990s presents the opportunity to examine (1) whether parents with sons are less likely to participate in pension plans and (2) whether providing access to pension plans affects parental sex-selection decisions. Consistent with the first hypothesis, we find that parents with sons are less likely to participate in the pension program and have less financial savings for retirement. Consistent with the second hypothesis, we find that an increase in county-level pension program availability is associated with a slower increase in the sex ratio at birth.

High ratios of males to females in China have concerned researchers (Sen 1990, Yi et al. 1993) and their recent increase has alarmed policymakers worldwide. This paper presents an analysis of China's census data that indicates that the "missing girls" phenomenon is causally linked to enforcement of the One Child Policy. Fertility is lower and sex ratios are higher among those under stricter fertility control, and the overall increase in the sex ratio is driven

Spatial shifts in the internal distribution of population are an important aspect of the dynamics of economic and demographic conditions in any country. Migration information is more complex than other place-specific population information, having both a temporal as well as a spatial component with respect to both origin and destination regions; and the collection of these data is less complete than the reporting of population by place in a national census. In this study, GIS and tabulation methods have been developed to estimate age- and sex-specific internal net migration patterns. These methods are applied to a case study of net migration patterns in China between 1990 and 2000 at the county level. Although migration data are reported at a county level there is no breakdown by age or sex. Estimates from the methods developed in this paper show an intra-provincial migration pattern which is creating dependency ratio imbalances between rural and urban areas in Eastern China.

When calculating the components of population change over time, the spatial units of analysis must remain constant. However, the boundaries of these units often change from one census to the next Another limiting factor is the absence of data values for the time period. Net migration figures might be available for a five year interval in a census but not for a twenty year interval. GIS and areal interpolation are used here to rectify boundary changes that occur from one census to the next and shift‐share analysis is used to estimate the components of population change from the census data. These methods are applied to a county level study of population change in China between 1982 and 2000.

In the wake of the one-child policy of 1979, China experienced an unprecedented rise in the sex ratio at birth (ratio of male to female births). In cohorts born between 1980 and 2000, there were 22 million more men than women. Some 10.4 percent of these additional men will fail to marry, based on simulations presented here that assess how different scenarios for the sex ratio at birth affect the probability of failure to marry in 21st century China. Three consequences of the high sex ratio and large numbers of unmarried men are discussed: the prevalence of prostitution and sexually transmitted infections, the economic and physical well-being of men who fail to marry, and China's ability to care for its elderly, with a particular focus on elderly males who fail to marry. Several policy options are suggested that could mitigate the negative consequences of the demographic squeeze. Copyright The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / the world bank . All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

The local average treatment effect (LATE) may differ from the average treatment effect (ATE) when those influenced by the instrument are not representative of the overall population. Heterogeneity in treatment effects may imply that parameter estimates from 2SLS are uninformative regarding the average treatment effect, motivating a search for instruments that affect a larger share of the population. In this paper, I present and estimate a model of home production with heterogeneous costs and benefits to fertility. The results indicate that a sex-preference instrument in Taiwan produces IV estimates closer to the estimated ATE than in the United States, where sex preference is weaker.

Exposure to air pollution in the form of particulate matter smaller than 10 μm in diameter (PM10) has been associated with increased morbidity and mortality. However, since air pollution is correlated with confounding factors that might otherwise affect health, identifying the causal link has proven challenging.To identify the effect of PM10 on hospital admissions due to respiratory illnesses.We used the Instrumental Variable (IV) methodology to control for confounding factors affecting hospital admissions. Exploiting the timing of sandstorms as an instrumental variable allows for a better estimate of the relationship between PM10 and hospital admissions. Data on PM10 concentrations and hospital admissions were compiled for Israel's two largest cities, Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, for 2007-2009. We compared our IV estimates to those derived from a Poisson regression, which is commonly used in the literature.Sandstorms led to an increase of 307 μg/m3 of PM10 concentrations. A 10 μg/m3 increase in PM10 is associated with a 0.8% increase in hospital admissions due to respiratory conditions, using IV methodology. The same finding was noted using the Poisson regression.The association between PM10 and hospital admission reflects a primarily causal relationship. Instrumental variable methodology could be applied to analyze the effect of air pollution on hospital admissions.

We examined migration in China using the 2005 inter-census population survey, in which migrants were registered at both their place of original (hukou) residence and at their destination. We find evidence that the estimated number of internal migrants in China is extremely sensitive to the enumeration method. We estimate that the traditional destination-based survey method fails to account for more than a third of migrants found using comparable origin-based methods. The 'missing' migrants are disproportionately young, male, and holders of rural hukou. We find that origin-based methods are more effective at capturing migrants who travel short distances for short periods, whereas destination-based methods are more effective when entire households have migrated and no remaining family members are located at the hukou location. We conclude with a set of policy recommendations for the design of population surveys in countries with large migrant populations.

We suggest that the impact of globalization on wages has been missed because its effects must be captured by analyzing occupational exposure to globalization. In this paper, we extend our previous work to include recent years (2003-2008), a period of increasing import penetration, China’s entry into the WTO, and growing US multinational employment abroad. We find significant effects of globalization, with offshoring to low wage countries and imports both associated with wage declines for US workers. We present evidence that globalization has led to the reallocation of workers away from high wage manufacturing jobs into other sectors and other occupations, with large declines in wages among workers who switch, explaining the large differences between industry and occupational analyses. While other research has focused primarily on China’s trade, we find that offshoring to China has also contributed to wage declines among US workers. However, the role of trade is quantitatively much more important. We also explore the impact of trade and offshoring on labor force participation rates. While offshoring to China has a negative impact on US labor force participation, other factors such as increasing computer use and substitution of capital for labor are significantly more important determinants of US employment rates across occupations.Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

We suggest that the impact of globalization on wages has been missed because its effects must be captured by analyzing occupational exposure to globalization. In this paper, we extend our previous work to include recent years (2003-2008), a period of increasing import penetration, China’s entry into the WTO, and growing US multinational employment abroad. We find significant effects of globalization, with offshoring to low wage countries and imports both associated with wage declines for US workers. We present evidence that globalization has led to the reallocation of workers away from high wage manufacturing jobs into other sectors and other occupations, with large declines in wages among workers who switch, explaining the large differences between industry and occupational analyses. While other research has focused primarily on China’s trade, we find that offshoring to China has also contributed to wage declines among US workers. However, the role of trade is quantitatively much more important. We also explore the impact of trade and offshoring on labor force participation rates. While offshoring to China has a negative impact on US labor force participation, other factors such as increasing computer use and substitution of capital for labor are significantly more important determinants of US employment rates across occupations.

Cognitive performance is critical to productivity in many occupations and potentially linked to pollution exposure. We evaluate this potentially important relationship by estimating the effect of pollution exposure on standardized test scores among Israeli high school high-stakes tests (2000-2002). Since students take multiple exams on multiple days in the same location after each grade, we can adopt a fixed effects strategy estimating models with city, school, and student fixed effects. We focus on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and carbon monoxide (CO), which are considered to be two of the most dangerous forms of air pollution. We find that while PM2.5 and CO levels are only weakly correlated with each other, both exhibit a robust negative relationship with test scores. We also find that PM2.5, which is thought to be particularly damaging for asthmatics, has a larger negative impact on groups with higher rates of asthma. For CO, which affects neurological functioning, the effect is more homogenous across demographic groups. Furthermore, we find that exposure to either pollutant is associated with a significant decline in the probability of not receiving a Bagrut certificate, which is required for college entrance in Israel. The results suggest that the gain from improving air quality may be underestimated by a narrow focus on health impacts. Insofar as air pollution may lead to reduced cognitive performance, the consequences of pollution may be relevant for a variety of everyday activities that require mental acuity. Moreover, by temporarily lowering the productivity of human capital, high pollution levels lead to allocative inefficiency as students with lower human capital are assigned a higher rank than their more qualified peers. This may lead to inefficient allocation of workers across occupations, and possibly a less productive workforce.

Cognitive performance during high-stakes exams can be affected by random disturbances that, even if transitory, may have permanent consequences for long-term schooling attainment and labor market outcomes. We evaluate this hypothesis among Israeli high school students who took the high school high stakes matriculation exams between 2000 and 2002. As a source of random (transitory) shocks to high-stakes matriculation test scores we use exposure to ambient air pollution during the day of the exam. We find a significant and negative relationship between PM2.5 exposure during each of these examinations and a student's exam score, and between average exposure across the exams and a student's composite matriculation score. Using 2SLS with PM2.5 as our instrument for a student's composite score, we find that scores have a significant long-term effect on post-secondary educational attainment and earnings during adulthood. The results suggest that random disturbances during high-stakes examinations can have long-term consequences for schooling and labor force outcomes, and highlight the drawbacks of using high-stakes examinations in university admissions.

This article examines fertility patterns in developing countries, and their relationship to population health. The author examines three regions of the developing world using the theoretical framework of the demographic transition, comparing the experiences in China, India, and sub-Saharan Africa. The author then examines issues related to their unique population patterns, such as China and India's high sex ratios, and the impact of HIV/AIDS on the African age distribution. The author concludes with a discussion of challenges related to these population patterns, including impending problems in China's marriage market, trends in sex work, patterns in breastfeeding, social unrest, and patterns in suicide.

Recent scholarship has documented an alarming increase in the sex ratio at birth in parts of East Asia, South Asia and the South Caucuses. I argue that parents engage in sex selection because of patrilocal norms that dictate elderly coresidence between parents and sons. Sex ratios and coresidence rates are positively correlated when looking across countries, within countries across districts, and within districts across ethnic groups. I examine the origins of patrilocality, and find it is most common among ethnic groups which practiced intensive agriculture. I conclude with an examination of how parents respond to changes in public pension programs.

This paper's findings suggest that an arbitrary Chinese policy that greatly increases total suspended particulates (TSPs) air pollution is causing the 500 million residents of Northern China to lose more than 2.5 billion life years of life expectancy. The quasi-experimental empirical approach is based on China’s Huai River policy, which provided free winter heating via the provision of coal for boilers in cities north of the Huai River but denied heat to the south. Using a regression discontinuity design based on distance from the Huai River, we find that ambient concentrations of TSPs are about 184 μg/m 3 [95% confidence interval (CI): 61, 307] or 55% higher in the north. Further, the results indicate that life expectancies are about 5.5 y (95% CI: 0.8, 10.2) lower in the north owing to an increased incidence of cardiorespiratory mortality. More generally, the analysis suggests that long-term exposure to an additional 100 μg/m 3 of TSPs is associated with a reduction in life expectancy at birth of about 3.0 y (95% CI: 0.4, 5.6).

This paper's findings suggest that an arbitrary Chinese policy that greatly increases total suspended particulates (TSP) air pollution is causing the 500 million residents of Northern China to lose more than 2.5 billion life years of life expectancy. The quasi-experimental empirical approach is based on China's Huai River policy, which provided free winter heating via the provision of coal for boilers in cities North of the Huai River but denied heat to the South. Using a regression discontinuity design based on distance from the Huai River, we find that ambient concentrations of TSP are about 184 μg/m3 (95% CI: 61, 307) or 55% higher in the North. Further, the results indicate that life expectancies are about 5.5 (95% CI: 0.8, 10.2) years lower in the North due to an increased incidence of cardiorespiratory mortality. More generally, the analysis suggests that long-term exposure to an additional 100 μg/m3 of TSP is associated with a reduction in life expectancy at birth of about 3.0 years (95% CI: 0.4, 5.6).

This paper examines a possible connection between China's massive rural to urban migration and high chemical fertilizer use rates during the late 1980s and 1990s. Using panel data on villages in rural China (1987-2002), we find that labor out-migration and fertilizer use per hectare are positively correlated. Using 2SLS, employing the opening of a Special Economic Zone in a nearby city as an instrument, we find that village fertilizer use is linked to contemporaneous short-term out-migration of farm workers. We also examine the long-term environmental consequences of chemical fertilizer use during this period. Using OLS, we find that fertilizer use intensity is correlated with future fertilizer use rates and diminished effectiveness of fertilizer, demonstrating persistency in use patterns, and suggesting that in areas with high use of fertilizer, the land is becoming less responsive. We also demonstrate that fertilizer use within a river basin is correlated with organic forms of water pollution, suggesting that industrialization has induced pollution in China both directly and through its impact on rural labor supply.

This paper examines a possible connection between China's massive rural to urban migration and high chemical fertilizer use rates during the late 1980s and 1990s. Using panel data on villages in rural China (1987-2002), we find that labor out-migration and fertilizer use per hectare are positively correlated. Using 2SLS, employing the opening of a Special Economic Zone in a nearby city as an instrument, we find that village fertilizer use is linked to contemporaneous short-term out-migration of farm workers. We also examine the long-term environmental consequences of chemical fertilizer use during this period. Using OLS, we find that fertilizer use intensity is correlated with future fertilizer use rates and diminished effectiveness of fertilizer, demonstrating persistency in use patterns, and suggesting that in areas with high use of fertilizer, the land is becoming less responsive. We also demonstrate that fertilizer use within a river basin is correlated with organic forms of water pollution, suggesting that industrialization has induced pollution in China both directly and through its impact on rural labor supply.

High ratios of males to females in China, which have historically concerned researchers (Sen 1990), have increased in the wake of China’s one-child policy, which began in 1979. Chinese policymakers are currently attempting to correct the imbalance in the sex ratio through initiatives that provide financial compensation to parents with daughters. Other scholars have advocated a relaxation of the one-child policy to allow more parents to have a son without engaging in sex selection. In this article, I present a model of fertility choice when parents have access to a sex-selection technology and face a mandated fertility limit. By exploiting variation in fines levied in China for unsanctioned births, I estimate the relative price of a son and daughter for mothers observed in China’s census data (1982–2000). I find that a couple’s first son is worth 1.42 years of income more than a first daughter, and the premium is highest among less-educated mothers and families engaged in agriculture. Simulations indicate that a subsidy of 1 year of income to families without a son would reduce the number of “missing girls” by 67% but impose an annual cost of 1.8% of Chinese gross domestic product (GDP). Alternatively, a three-child policy would reduce the number of “missing girls” by 56% but increase the fertility rate by 35%.

This paper examines the potential for sector-specific productivity growth, human capital, credit markets, and infrastructure to contribute to the development of stable, well-paid employment in rural areas of low-income countries. Particular emphasis is placed on the way that different sectors of the rural economy interact with each other and with local and regional product markets. A simple theoretical framework and descriptive analysis of panel data from India suggests that more emphasis should be placed on increasing the production of goods that incorporate local agricultural products as inputs.

Fertility decline has fueled a sharp increase in the proportion of 'missing girls' in China, so an increasing share of males will fail to marry, and will face old age without the support normally provided by wives and children. This paper shows that historically, China has had nearly-universal marriage for women and a very competitive market for men. Lower-educated men experience higher rates of bachelorhood while women favor men with better prospects, migrating if needed from poorer to wealthier areas. The authors examine the anticipated effects of this combination of bride shortage and hypergamy, for different regions of China. Their projections indicate that unmarried males will likely be concentrated in poorer provinces with low fiscal ability to provide social protection to their citizens. Such geographic concentration of unmarried males could be socially disruptive, and the paper’s findings suggest a need to expand the coverage of social protection programs financed substantially by the central government.

The alarming rise in China’s reported HIV cases in the last decade has caused concern among government officials and public health researchers. The increase in reported HIV cases is especially worrying because the majority of new cases are not observed in traditional high risk populations (such as intravenous drug users and recipients of former plasma donors), but are sexually transmitted. This chapter analyzes the demographic patterns in China that may be an important determinant of the increase in sexually transmitted HIV infections. High sex ratios, numbers of men relative to numbers of women, in young cohorts of Chinese men and women contribute to the increasing failure of Chinese men to marry. These men, referred to as bare branches (guang gun) since they will be unable to extend the family tree, are more likely to migrate to regions with more favorable marriage markets, and may be more likely to purchase sex. This behavior in turn increases men’s risk of sexually transmitted infections, including HIV. We also analyze how further increases in sex ratios among Chinese men and women of marrying ages may affect migration patterns, commercial sex demand, and the spread of HIV. We begin the analysis in the second section with a brief history of HIV in China during the last two decades. In the third section, we present forecasts for demographic changes in China in the 21st century, describing how the entry of cohorts with highly skewed sex ratios into the marriage pool may result in large numbers of males marrying late, or failing to marry. In the fourth section considers how the imbalanced sex ratios and socio-economic

Economic models of home production predict a tradeoff between a mother's fertility and her labor supply. Recent empirical work suggests that while these outcomes are correlated, the causal impact is negligible when estimated through Instrumental Variables (sex preference, twinning). I find that in Taiwan, intense son preference produces 2SLS estimates of a mother's labor response that are larger than OLS estimates, suggesting that previous IV analyses may focus on mothers with lower than average costs to childbearing. I present a model of a mother's joint determination of fertility and labor supply allowing for unobserved heterogeneity in both the benefits and costs of children. The model predicts that IV estimates will rise in proportion to the intensity of the instrument, and provides a framework for assessing the bias in OLS and IV estimators. Estimation of the structural model predicts that the average causal effect of a third child on a mother's probability of working is -10 percent in Taiwan and -12 percent in the United States for mothers between 34 and 36 years of age. The results imply that the IV estimate for the US (-7 percent) is lower than the average causal effect, but the IV estimate in Taiwan (-11 percent) is slightly larger than the average causal effect. I present a set of simulations to consider how IV estimates derived from simulated data change when the strength of the instrument varies, and find that in both Taiwan and the US, weaker instruments provide estimates lower than the average causal effect, and stronger instruments yield estimates closer to the average causal effect.

High sex ratios in China and India have historically concerned researchers (Sen 1990) and their recent increase has alarmed policymakers worldwide. This paper identifies sex selection via infanticide and abortion as the principal explanation for the sex ratio distortion, and rules out competing explanations such as biology (Oster 2005) or differential mortality rates. Consistent with recent work (Jha et al. 2006), I find that the sex ratio of first-order births is close to the natural rate and steeply rising following the birth of low-order daughters, indicating that mothers are practicing pre-natal sex selection or immediate infanticide. Sex ratios are found to be higher among those anticipating lower fertility, such as those under stricter government fertility limits. I present a model of a mother's fertility choice when she has access to a sex-selection technology and faces a mandated fertility limit. By exploiting variation in fines levied in China for unsanctioned births, I demonstrate that higher fine regimes discourage fertility but are associated with higher sex ratios among those who choose to have an additional child. I then estimate a structural model of parental preferences using China's 2000 census data that indicates that a son is worth 2.90 years of income more than a daughter, and the premium is highest among less educated mothers and rural families. I conclude with a set of simulations to model the effect on sex ratios and total fertility of a proposed subsidy to families who fail to have a son, and find that such a policy would reduce sex ratios and lower overall fertility.