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In the Ferlo Region in Senegal, livestock depend on temporary ponds for water but are exposed to the Rift Valley Fever (RVF), a disease transmitted to herds by mosquitoes which develop in these ponds. Mosquito abundance is related to the emptying and filling phases of the ponds, and in order to study the epidemiology of RVF, pond modelling is required. In the context of a data scarce region, a simple hydrologic model which makes use of remote sensing data was developed to simulate pond water dynamics from daily rainfall. Two sets of ponds were considered: those located in the main stream of the Ferlo Valley whose hydrological dynamics are essentially due to runoff, and the ponds located outside, which are smaller and whose filling mechanisms are mainly due to direct rainfall. Separate calibrations and validations were made for each set of ponds. Calibration was performed from daily field data (rainfall, water level) collected during the 2001 and 2002 rainy seasons and from three different sources of remote sensing data: 1) very high spatial resolution optical satellite images to access pond location and surface area at given dates, 2) Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data to estimate pond catchment area and 3) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data for rainfall estimates. The model was applied to all ponds of the study area, the results were validated and a sensitivity analysis was performed. Water height simulations using gauge rainfall as input were compared to water level measurements from four ponds and Nash coefficients >0.7 were obtained. Comparison with simulations using TRMM rainfall data gave mixed results, with poor water height simulations for the year 2001 and good estimations for the year 2002. A pond map derived from a Quickbird satellite image was used to assess model accuracy for simulating pond water areas for all the ponds of the study area. The validation showed that modelled water areas were mostly underestimated but significantly correlated, particularly for the larger ponds. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that parameters relative to pond shape and catchment area estimation have less effects on model simulation than parameters relative to soil properties (rainfall threshold causing runoff in dry soils and the coefficient expressing soil moisture decrease with time) or the water loss coefficient. Overall, our results demonstrate the possibility of using a simple hydrologic model with remote sensing data to track pond water heights and water areas in a homogeneous arid area.

West Nile fever epidemiology is complex, and the role of birds in the maintenance, amplification, and dissemination of the West Nile virus (WNV) remains partially unknown. In 2003, a serological study was performed in Senegal, where West Nile infection is considered endemic. The goal was to identify potential reservoirs of WNV among bird species present in the Ferlo area (northern Senegal) and the Senegal River Valley, and to screen the ecological factors possibly related to West Nile infection. Serological data were analyzed using a generalized linear model. Statistical association between ecological factors and the risk of infection were then modeled to derive a species-specific risk. A cross-validation was conducted. The overall observed prevalence rate was 5.5% (n = 422). Thirteen bird species were found positive, from which five were migrating: Lanius senator, Anthus trivialis, Hippolais opaca, Jynx torquilla, and Cercotrichas galactotes. The nesting type in resident birds was positively correlated with the risk of infection (odds ratio [OR] = 11, p = 0.0003); the gregariousness level of birds appeared as a protective factor (OR = 0.3, p = 0.01). The predicted prevalence varied between 1% and 39% for resident species and between 1% and 7% for migrating species. Results of model internal validation were satisfactory at the individual and species level. However, more field and experimental investigations are needed to confirm these preliminary results and help target the future research and surveillance in Senegal.

Mosquitoes, acting as vectors, are involved in the transmission of viruses. Thus, their abundances, which strongly depend on the weather and environment, are closely linked to major disease outbreaks. The aim of this paper is to provide a tool to predict vector abundance. In order to describe the dynamics of mosquito populations, we developed a matrix model integrating climate fluctuations. The population is structured in five stages: two egg stages (immature and mature), one larval stage and two female flying stages (nulliparous and parous). The water availability in breeding sites was considered as the main environmental factor affecting the mosquito life-cycle. Thus, the model represents the evolution of the mosquito abundance in each stage over time, in connection with water availability. The model was used to simulate the abundance trends over 3 years of two mosquito species, Aedes africanus (Theobald) and Aedes furcifer (Edwards), vectors of the yellow fever virus in Ivory Coast. As both these species breed in tree holes, the water dynamics in the tree hole was reproduced from daily rainfall data. The results we obtained showed a good match between the simulated populations and the field data over the time period considered.

During the 2003 rainy season, a follow-up survey in sentinel chickens was undertaken to assess the seasonal transmission of West Nile virus (WNV) in a sahelian ecosystem: the Ferlo (Senegal). The estimated incidence rate in chickens was 14% (95% CI 7-29), with a very low level of transmission between July and September, and a transmission peak occurring between September and October. Comparing these results with the estimate obtained from a previous transversal serological study performed on horses the same year in the same area, the relevance of sentinel chickens in estimating the WNV transmission rate is highlighted. Conventionally adult mosquito populations disappear during the dry season but WN disease was shown to be endemic in the study area. The mechanisms of virus maintenance are discussed.

Inspired by Davidson method of estimating daily survivals of a structureless population of mosquitoes, we present a model which describes the behavior of floodwater mosquitoes in terms of emergence functions following a rainfall event, blood feeding frequency and parous stages, and survival at various stages. As a generalization of the Davidson formula, we have developed an approach for dealing with the dynamics of structured population of mosquitoes, and derived various formulas allowing assessment of demographic parameters like durations of gonotrophic cycles and (apparent) daily survivals. The method was subsequently applied to field data of floodwater mosquitoes Aedes vexans arabiensis, potential vectors of Rift Valley fever in West Africa, collected during the 2003 rainy season in Barkedji, Senegal. We found that mosquitoes emerged about 3 to 4 days following an efficient rainfall, and mosquito emergences, described by a bell shaped function, lasted for about 2 days. The mean duration of the gonotrophic cycle was 3 days and the apparent daily survival about 0.87.

The Ferlo area (north-central Senegal) is characterized by a system of temporary ponds favorable to arboviruses among which West Nile fever (WNF) was already identified. During the rainy season in 2003, a serological study was undertaken on horses to assess the activity of the WNF virus (WNFV) in Barkedji (Ferlo). The observed serological prevalence rate was 78.3% for neutralizing antibodies, with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of [64.0, 92.7]. This prevalence rate significantly increased with age (P = 10(-5)). This study confirmed that WNF was endemic in the Ferlo. The transmission risks depended on the introduction of the WNFV in the ecosystem--probably with migrating birds, on its amplification in hosts and on the vector-population dynamic. Further studies are needed to investigate how the cycle is initiated in Barkedji at the beginning of the rainy season and the impact of climatic variations on the risk of transmission of WNF. A surveillance system should be implemented: (a) to assess the clinical impact of the WNF on human and equine populations, (b) to provide an early detection of virulent strains, and (c) to assess the risk of WNF transmission to disease-free ecosystems via migrating birds.

Objective: To evaluate a new method of deriving the reproductive number for vector-borne diseases from the early epidemic curves for vector-borne diseases with incubations in the vectors and in the hosts., Method: We applied the model to several dengue epidemics in different climatic regions of Brazil: Brasilia, Belém, Fortaleza, Boa Vista., Results: The new method leads to higher estimates of the reproductive number than previous models., Conclusion: At present, Aedes aegypti densities, the meeting of more compatible strains of viruses and mosquitoes, may lead to re-emergence of urban yellow fever epidemics.

During the 2003 rainy season, the clinical and serologic incidence of Rift Valley fever was assessed in small ruminant herds living around temporary ponds located in the semi-arid region of the Ferlo, Senegal. No outbreak was detected by the surveillance system. Serologic incidence was estimated at 2.9% (95% confidence interval 1.0-8.7) and occurred in 5 of 7 ponds with large variations in the observed incidence rate (0%-20.3%). The location of ponds in the Ferlo Valley and small ponds were correlated with higher serologic incidence (p = 0.0005 and p = 0.005, respectively). Rift Valley fever surveillance should be improved to allow early detection of virus activity. Ruminant vaccination programs should be prepared to confront the foreseeable higher risks for future epidemics of this disease.

The importance of spatial heterogeneity and spatial scales (at a village or neighbourhood scale) has been explored with individual-based models. Our reasoning is based on the Chilean Easter Island (EI) case, where a first dengue epidemic occurred in 2002 among the relatively small population localized in one village. Even in this simple situation, the real epidemic is not consistent with homogeneous models. Conversely, including contact heterogeneity on different scales (intra-households, inter-house, inter-areas) allows the recovery of not only the EI epidemiological curve but also the qualitative patterns of Brazilian urban dengue epidemic in more complex situations.

The importance of rainfall for the development of Aedes vexans arabiensis populations, one of the potential vectors of Rift Valley Fever in West Africa, was demonstrated in a two-year follow-up study conducted in the Ferlo region of Senegal. In 2003, the rainy season began with heavy rains and, as a result, temporary ponds, the breeding places for mosquitoes, were flooded at their maximum level immediately. In such conditions, Aedes vexans arabiensis populations are abundant at the very beginning of the season, when the majority of eggs in quiescence are flooded. Females, hatching from eggs laid the year before, quickly lay eggs on the pond's wet soil, which will undergo dormancy as the water level goes down. Rainless periods longer than seven days, the time needed for embryogenesis, followed by significant rainfall, will result in the hatching of very large numbers of new eggs. Thus, several generations of adults may exist during the same rainy season. Because of potential vertical transmission of Rift Valley Fever virus in Aedes species, viral transmission and disease risk can appear as early as the beginning of the rainy season and if late rains occur, at the end of the season. This dynamic maximizes the virus' chance to persist from one year to another, thus facilitating endemisation of Rift Valley Fever in areas where Aedes vexans arabiensis exists.

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a growing health problem in West Africa. In northern Senegal, the candidate vectors of this arbovirosis are Aedes (Aedimorphus) vexans Meigen and Culex (Culex) poicilipes Theobald (Diptera: Culicidae). Domestic ruminants are the reservoirs of the virus. A study was undertaken during the 2002 rainy season to assess spatial and temporal variations in exposure to mosquito bites in sheep herds, and to evaluate the possible consequences on the risk of RVF transmission to sheep. Mosquitoes were collected with sheep-baited traps. The number of Ae. vexans females (the predominant species during the 2002 rainy season) trapped per trap-night was the dependent variable in statistical analyses. The trapping periods were divided into six series of two to five consecutive days, from July to November 2002. Three temporary ponds were selected according to their ecological features: depth, bank slope, size and vegetation cover. Traps were laid on the pond bank and in the nearest available compound, close to the sheep night pen. Data were analysed using mixed-effects Poisson models. The explanatory variables were the trapping period, the pond, and the capture site. The exposure to mosquito bites varied according to the pond type, suggesting that the risk of transmission was spatially heterogeneous. However, there was no obvious trend in transmission risk due to the effect of the distance from the compound to the pond. The period with the highest exposure was in October, i.e. when transhumant herds left the Ferlo to relocate to their dry-season settlement. It is thus hypothesized that transhumance, the seasonal movements of herds, plays a significant role in the dissemination of RVF virus in the region.

In 1998, an epizootic of yellow fever (YF) killed many howler monkeys (Alouatta spp.) in eastern Amazonia near the city of Altamira. An infection level with YF virus of approximately 3.6% was determined from analysis of 456 females of Haemagogus janthinomys Dyar, the main enzootic YF vector in South America. One month later, a second study of 164 females captured in the same place led to infection levels of 0.8% for parous and 2.9% for nulliparous females. These results lead to the conclusion that vertical transmission, one of the key elements in the epidemiology of YF, occurs in South America as it does in Africa.

We have carried out a meticulous time-space-analysis of the incidence of yellow fever in humans in Brazil from 1954 to 1972 and especially from 1973 to 1999. This study has added to our knowledge of the epidemiology of yellow fever and enabled us to redefine epidemiological zones and determine their geographical limits. The endemic area is located within the Amazon basin; here cases are scattered and generally limited in number. However, there are also "foci of endemic emergence" within this area, where cases are less rare, although occurrence remains irregular. The epidemic area is for the most part situated outside the Amazon basin, to the north east and particularly to the south. It has been divided into two parts according to whether the occurrence of yellow fever is cyclic or sporadic. The epidemics, which are all sylvatic, follow either a circular path (in the forest area) or a linear path (in forest-galleries of the savannah area). The study of the development of the 3 main epidemics (1972-74; 1979-82; 1986-92) in the cyclic emergence area showed that, on each occasion, the yellow fever virus appeared at a particularly active outbreak site located in the "serra dos Carajás", and from there, it followed the courses of the Tocantins and Araguaia rivers upstream, moving southwards during the "pre-epidemic phase" which may be visible due to the occurrence of a few cases, or may remain invisible. Subsequently the virus reached the emergence area, where it appeared in the form of epidemics. In this zone, it also followed privileged south-western pathways, moving from one hydraulic basin to another along the upstream courses of the rivers. Almost exactly the same pathways have been identified for each of the 3 epidemics studied. The distances travelled by the virus over a period of one year--when it goes rapidly--can reach several hundred kilometers. On the other hand, it may be stationary for a period of one or two consecutive years, occasionally three, remaining present in the area but infecting humans only rarely if at all. The virus occasionally leaves the cyclic emergence area and appears in the sporadic emergence area to the east, in the states of Bahia, Minas Gerais and São Paulo, and, as a consequence, moving onto other hydraulic basins. The small river basins in Maranhão and NorthWest states, as well as in the northern part of the state of Roraima also form part of the sporadic emergence area. The epidemics that occur here are directly linked to the endemic area and are only preceded by sometimes indiscernible epizootics and can consequently not be foreseen. Again the virus appears to use privileged pathways to reach the sporadic emergence areas where human and monkey populations are generally only partially immunised against yellow fever and where contact with mosquitoes is intense despite the fact it is limited in space and time, being restricted to the often narrow strip of trees along the water courses. Other routes used by the virus may be the Madeira, Xingu and Tapajós rivers, the scene of outbreaks observed in the state of Rondônia and in the north of Mato Grosso, where ongoing environmental changes are likely to result in an increasing number of outbreaks in the coming years. Since the discovery of the sylvatic cycle of yellow fever in 1933, not only the extent of the epidemiological areas has changed, but also their limits. Ecological modifications that are currently taking place in the Amazon basin, which is an endemic reservoir of the virus, will inevitably facilitate an increase the contact between humans and vectors. While more and more urban areas harbour populations of Aedes aegypti, the domestic and urban vector of yellow fever, it is particularly important to try to protect human populations living in emergence zones and epidemic areas and thus to prevent the arrival of the virus in towns via humans with viremia--in other words the much feared urbanisation of yellow fever in Brazil.

We describe clinical and epidemiologic findings during the first epidemic of dengue fever in Belém, Pará State, Brazil, in 1996-97. Of 40,237 serum samples, 17,440 (43%) were positive for dengue by virus isolation or serologic testing. No hemorrhagic cases or deaths were reported. Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Yellow fever virus transmission was very active in Maranhao State in Brazil in 1993 and 1994. An investigation was carried out to evaluate the magnitude of the epidemic. In 1993, a total of 932 people was examined for yellow fever from Maranhao: 70 were positive serologically, histopathologically, and/or by virus isolation, and another four cases were diagnosed clinically and epidemiologically. In Mirador (17,565 inhabitants), the incidence was 3.5 per 1,000 people (case fatality rate [number of deaths/number of cases diagnosed] = 16.4%), while in a rural yellow fever risk area (14,659 inhabitants), the incidence was 4.2 and the case-fatality rate was 16.1% (10 of 62). A total of 45.2% (28 of 62) asymptomatic infections were registered. In 1994, 49 serum samples were obtained and 16 cases were confirmed (two by virus isolation, two by seroconversion, and 12 by serology). No fatal cases were reported. In 1993, 936 potential yellow fever vectors were captured in Mirador and a single strain was isolated from a pool of Haemagogus janthinomys (infection rate = 0.16%). In 1994, 16 strains were isolated from 1,318 Hg. janthinomys (infection rate = 1.34%) and one Sabethes chloropterus (infection rate = 1.67%). Our results suggest that this was the most extensive outbreak of yellow fever in the last 20 years in Brazil. It is also clear that the lack of vaccination was the principal reason for the epidemic, which occurred between April and June, during the rainy season, a period in which the mosquito population in the forest increases.

A little modification was made on the classical Borel tube, used for rearing isolated females of mosquitoes. The first studies were realized with the main Yellow fever vector, Haemagogus janthinomys, in Brazil. The results are: a better survival, as far as 72 days, a greater number of eggs, up to 80, and a shorter trophogonic cycle of 7-8 days. So, one can imagine more easily further studies about the vertical transmission of the YF virus by this important neo-tropical mosquito.

Urban yellow fever (YF) epidemics have disappeared from Brazil since about 50 years, but a selvatic cycle still exist. In many States, cases are more or less numerous each year. Ae. aegypti was eradicated in 1954, re-appeared temporarily in 1967, and then definitively in 1976-1977. Ae. aegypti is a vector of yellow few (YF), but also of dengue, whose first cases were reported in 1982. Today, dengue is endemic in many regions. A second Flavivirus vector, Aedes albopictus is present since about ten years in some States, from which Säo Paulo. The analysis of the YF cases between 1972 and 1994 allowed us to determine the epidemiologic regions. In the first region, the endemic area, the YF virus is circulating "silently" among monkeys, and the emergence of human cases is rare. In the second region, the epidemic area, some epizootics occur in a more or less cyclic way, and human cases can be numerous. Nevertheless, these outbreaks are considered "selvatic" epidemics, as long as Ae. aegypti is not concerned. From the Amazonian region, the virus moves forward along the forest galleries of the Amazone tributaries, from North to South. Actually, dengue epidemics appear in quite all States, and reflect the geographical distribution of Ae. aegypti. Recently, Ae. aegypti was found in the southern part of the Pará State, in the Carajás region considered to be the source of the main YF epidemics. In another hand, Ae. albopictus is now increasing its distribution area, specially in the suburban zones. The ecology of this potential vector, which seems to have a great adaptative capacity, give this vector an intermediate position between the forest galleries, where the YF virus circulates, and the agglomerations infested with Ae. aegypti. Since a few years, the possibility of urban YF is threatening Brazil, it is more and more predictable and we must survey very carefully the epidemiological situation in some regions of the country.

The physiological age of Yellow Fever Aedes females in Africa was studied during four years, from 1988 to 1992. We used a method, according to Polovodova's method, which looks for the "yellow body" under natural light. Those yellow bodies exist in the old females, the "parous" ones, and not in the young females, the "nulliparous" ones. We present some results to illustrate the interest of studying the physiological age of mosquitoes in the epidemiology of the arboviral diseases. The transmission risk, in relation with abundance and parity rate was illustrated, in particular for Aedes africanus and Aedes luteocephalus, which is useful to compare species, or with a given species, to compare periods. The parity rate of Aedes furcifer females was studied on 6 points along a transect between a forest and a village. The rate and the abundance of the females caught on human bates are inversely proportional. The parity rate is minimum in the canopy forest (about 50%) and maximum inside a house (100%). The rains have different consequences on the species, according to the period of fall. At the beginning of the dry season, they bring about hatching, but not at the end of the dry season. Massive hatching, will occur just at the beginning of the rainy season, some weeks later. Studying the physiological age of Ae. africanus females, the number of nulliparous is not related to the rain. That means a possibility of "natural" hatching for part of the eggs. Among the female of the dry season, young females are found, which is important for the transmission capacity. The method, described herein, to determine the physiological age is perfectly applicable to the Yellow Fever vector Haemagogus janthinomys in Southern America. But for the Dengue vectors Aedes aegypti and probably Aedes albopictus, the Detinova's method seems better. Actually, it seems important to study the physiological age of the vectors Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as well as the evolution of the physiological age in space and time, in order to better know the epidemiology of dengue in Southern America.