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ABSTRACT: Background: India shares 2/3 of global TB burden. MDR and HIV coinfections are the main obstacle in achieving the successful TB control because it decrease the therapy effect. Objective: To analyze the long-term trends of incidence of tuberculosis cases and identify any differences between actual and projected cases after the COVID-19 pandemic. Methodology: A retrolective study was conducted in SMS medical college, Jaipur, and data were extracted from state TB cell and annual report published by central TB division. A multiplicative model was used for conducting time series analysis. The projected yearly number of cases were estimated using the line of best fit based on the least square method. Result: An increasing trend in the incidence of TB was observed, rising from 1,517,363 in 2008 to 2,404,815 in 2019. Similarly, DRTB also showed an increasing trend from 10,267 (0.67% of total new cases) in 2011 to 66,255 (2.75%) in 2019. The new cases of DRTB in 2020 were significantly lower than the projected number. The trend of HIV coinfection in TB cases fluctuated over the past decade. Conclusion: The findings reveal a concerning upward trajectory in TB incidence and DRTB cases over the decade. The fluctuating trend in HIV coinfection in TB cases emphasizes the complexity of addressing these interconnected health challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Measles, a highly transmissible disease marked by fever and a maculopapular rash, posed a substantial threat to life in the 1960s. Nevertheless, the advent of the measles vaccine had a profound impact, significantly diminishing its toll on mortality. Similarly, through effective influenza surveillance and early epidemic warning systems, public health officials can timely identify influenza trends and provide crucial scientific support for prevention and control measures. This proactive approach holds great public health significance. Aim: To analyse the long-term trend of measles cases in Rajasthan, India, and the impact of Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) on it, with future predictions using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modelling. Materials and Methods: The present study was a retrospective, descriptive observational study in which monthly diagnosed measles cases were collected from the Measles Rubella Laboratory, Department of Microbiology, Sawai Man Singh Medical College, Jaipur, Rajasthan, India, for the period of April 2010 to April 2023. An ARIMA model was developed using data from 2010 to 2020 to predict the monthly number of measles cases in 2021. The predicted values were then compared to the actual cases in 2021 to assess the model’s accuracy. Results: Out of the total positive cases, males were slightly more prone to acquire infection than females (1734 males, 54%; 1477 females, 46%). The monthly index for new measles cases ranged from 0.11 to 2.6. It reached its lowest point in July (0.106) and August (0.25) and peaked in March (2.594) and April (1.84). The overall trend was fluctuating; however, the incidence of measles cases clearly increased after the year 2021. The difference between observed cases and predicted cases for the period of April 2020 to December 2021 was not statistically significant (t-value=0.261 and p-value=0.797). Conclusion: The fluctuating trend of measles was observed during the last decade; however, the observed cases of measles showed an upward trajectory during and after the COVID-19 outbreak. This study also highlighted the monthly index of the measles cases, which peaked in March to April and was lowest in July to August. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]