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This article studies the relationship between credit provision and stock trading behavior. We collect every stock transaction of the three major British companies during the 1720 South Sea Bubble and link stock trading to margin loan positions with the Bank of England. We give insights in the selection of traders into the loan facility by comparing the trading behavior and realized returns of borrowers to other traders. We find that loan holders are more likely to buy following high returns and document strong underperformance of borrowers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Faced with ever-growing climate-related financial risks, the role of central banks in climate governance has intensified debates surrounding central bank independence (CBI). Informed by elite interviews with UK monetary policy experts and a discourse analysis of Bank of England reports, this article reveals the internal views on repoliticisation of the Bank and CBI catalysed by the mandate to ‘facilitate the transition to net zero’. We find different interpretations of CBI that are shaped by perceptions of the Bank’s existing political status, with some claiming that the Bank is intrinsically apolitical and immune to repoliticisation and others viewing CBI as fragile or a strategically-deployed discourse. Across three distinct views of politics, and by extensions CBI, we identify dual dynamics of depoliticisation and re-politicisation that serve to legitimate and depoliticise prior mission creep whilst simultaneously licencing politicising debates on the bank’s institutional evolution. We demonstrate that the Bank of England is an indispensable case study in the green central banking literature for understanding the political economy of CBI within the context of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

i points beyond itself as it stylizes the ambiguity inherent in all things that are made: their capacity to include I and i exclude, protect I and i harm, create I and i destroy. Heaton's I Zen Men i are lumped together; in one we can just about make out a thinker's pose, while the other merely slouches. i (2007, see Figure 1) by Southport- and London-based sculptor and performance artist Tony Heaton, we first encounter an uninviting fortress made from the same stone as St Paul's Cathedral, Buckingham Palace, and the Bank of England. The original blue (which, Heaton notes, became derogatively known as spaz blue) turns into lamé, a shimmering fabric, which is a play on the word I lame i , indicating the fickle balance between ability and disability. [Extracted from the article]

Copyright of International Economics / Economia Internazionale is the property of Camera di Commercio di Genova and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The analysis of Lombard Street focuses on two dimensions that have received little attention: (1) Bagehot's analysis of the systemic financial interdependencies between the functional poles of creditors and debtors in financial markets; and (2) the significance of trust and expectations in the functioning of these promise-to-pay markets. These dimensions lead us to Bagehot's well-known principles of central bank responsibility in the historical legislative-political context of the Bank Charter Act of 1844. Despite its publication 150 years ago, this book deals with the then new and still relevant finance-based interdependencies where functional roles need to be redefined and restructured. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historians of economic thought have generally described Walter Bagehot as a scarcely original economist. This is tied to his refusal to adopt normative reasoning, which was deeply rooted in his evolutionary approach. This paper focuses on Bagehot's opinions about the interactions between monetary and fiscal policy, which allows putting his thought in perspective beyond the narrow question of lending of last resort. We reconstruct his innovative views on the liquidity of short-term government securities, which cannot be found in his predecessors. Bagehot's views were highly influential, as they led to the modernisation of government borrowing in the UK through the creation of the modern Treasury bill. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores Walter Bagehot's (1826–1877) proposals for improvement of the governance of the Bank of England after the Charter Act (1844). In his book Lombard Street (1873), Bagehot addresses the inherent dilemma faced by the Bank of England since its establishment in 1694. On one hand, it was a joint-stock bank with private shareholders, while on the other, it was entrusted with fundamental responsibilities for the public interest, including lending to the state, restructuring public debt, holding the nation's gold reserve, and managing liquidity crises. According to Bagehot, if the Bank of England succeeded in solving this dilemma, it was mainly thanks to the implementation of governance principles that he introduced and discussed. The contribution of this article is to highlight Bagehot's original proposals on central bank governance and their significance in reconciling the interests of the diverse stakeholders of the 'Old Lady of Threadneedle'. Central bank governance in Bagehot is a topic that has not yet been discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Successive crises – social, environmental and political – have led some in global governance circles to advocate a more 'inclusive capitalism'. In this article, I show how this postcrisis language of inclusive capitalism was used by a specific subset of officials within the Bank of England: Those with high levels of experience in public sector and international official institutions. It is argued that these officials are 'organic intellectuals' who mobilise their experience of inter-institutional collaboration as a deliberative model for solving long-term social problems. The institutional experience of these officials and their concern with crises of trust in expertise facilitated the adoption of these models of communicative intervention. I draw on a novel dataset of Bank officials' career data and speeches, as well as twelve interviews with current and former Bank staff, to show who used this language, in what settings and what motivated its adoption. The article makes a novel contribution to debates about the motivations of key figures in central banks, suggesting that their actions go beyond reputation defence to encompass an expansive worldview of how capitalism might solve its myriad crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article "UK forecast in detail" from the Economic Outlook journal discusses the current fiscal policy, monetary policy, prices, wages, activity, consumer demand, housing market, company sector, labor market, trade, and sectoral balances in the UK. It highlights the challenges faced by the government in managing borrowing, spending, and investment, as well as the impact of factors like inflation, interest rates, and consumer behavior on the economy. The article provides forecasts and analysis based on data from Oxford Economics, offering insights into the economic outlook for the UK in the coming years. [Extracted from the article]

The article discusses the current state of business investment in the UK, highlighting factors such as weak post-pandemic recovery, financial constraints, and fragile corporate sentiment. It mentions the impact of rising debt servicing costs, low levels of investment in buildings, and the role of government policies in influencing investment decisions. Despite expectations of a gradual recovery in business investment, the UK still lags behind peers like the US, indicating ongoing challenges in productivity and economic performance. [Extracted from the article]

Public international law cloaks the process of government recognition with neutrality. It does this by concealing its political, discretional nature and disregarding the far-reaching consequences for the citizens of the country concerned. The dispute over Venezuelan gold in the Bank of England provides a case study as the gold reserves or its proceeds remain out of the reach of the Venezuelan people. It presents unique features as the UK courts have to determine which of the two competing governments represents Venezuela's legitimate interest. This article focuses on the relationship between government recognition and coloniality to illustrate how the law reproduces neocolonial rationalities under the guise of neutrality. It conceals a morally superior self-perception of those advancing an international political order dehumanising the lives of 'the other'. Ultimately, government recognition has far-reaching implications for the international order since it risks becoming a discretionary practice to support or boycott regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Boletín Económico de ICE is the property of S.G.E.E.I.P.C., Secretaria de Estado de Comercio, Ministerio de Industria, Comercio y Turismo and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In this article, we provide a comparative case study analysis of the differentiated climate change engagement of the Bank of England (BoE), European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve (Fed). Drawing on semi-structured interviews and a newly composed database of central banker speeches and legislative documents, we argue that climate (in)actions of these central banks are shaped by concerns over their reputation. A broad socio-political consensus on the need for climate change mitigation enabled the BoE and ECB to begin integrating CRFRs into their supervisory frameworks without affecting their socio-political reputation while the carbon bias in their own asset purchase programs compelled both central banks to also start greening their monetary policy to preserve their performative reputation. The Fed's more cautious moves have been driven by a fear of loss of technical reputation in the face of a growing transnational consensus on the financial stability risks of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the Bank of England's (BoE) plan to slow down its quantitative tightening (QT) process, which involves reducing the amount of government bonds (gilts) held in the Bank's asset purchase facility (APF). While there is a consensus that the APF rundown can be achieved through redemptions of these gilt holdings, the author disagrees and expects QT to continue at its current pace. The article explores the arguments for and against slowing down the APF rundown, including concerns about losses from gilt sales, the impact on interest rates, and the government's fiscal rules. The BoE is likely to steadily reduce gilt holdings until they reach zero, using short-term repos as an alternative. However, uncertainties remain regarding the smooth expansion of repos and the impact on short-term interest rates. [Extracted from the article]

The article discusses the outlook for central banks and their potential policy rate cuts. The author believes that major central banks, such as the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, will cut rates more quickly than what is currently expected by markets. The article also highlights the factors that central banks are considering, such as global GDP growth forecasts, inflationary pressures, and the path of services inflation. The author predicts that the ECB will cut rates by a further 200bps by the end of 2025, while the Fed and Bank of England will cut by 150bps over the same period. However, the author notes that there are risks to the path for policy rates, and that markets may be underestimating the extent of policy divergence between the Fed and ECB. [Extracted from the article]

This document explores the factors that have influenced the neutral real interest rate in the UK. It notes that the neutral rate has recently risen to just below 3% but is expected to decline to around 2% by 2030. Inflation expectations have primarily driven the increase in the nominal neutral rate, while the real neutral rate has risen more modestly. The UK's weak demographic and productivity prospects are projected to keep the neutral real rate at historically low levels. The document acknowledges the uncertainty in estimating the neutral rate and the challenges of accounting for structural changes in the UK. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee has indicated the possibility of an interest rate cut in the near future. [Extracted from the article]

We provide an overview of the formulation of the forecasts of the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England. We also provide statistical assessments of the performance of the forecasting process of those central banks. We find that the inflation forecasts have, by-and-large, been unbiased and efficient at the very short-term forecast horizon. The performance deteriorates over longer horizons. This latter finding could be attributable, inter alia, to the approach applied in the integration in the forecasting process of the assumptions on the future market-implied interest rate path. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the 17-18th century, during the process of civil transformations, starting from the economic policy based on the era of absolutism, the first central bank regulations appeared in Europe. Mainly the disorganization and crisis of public finances and the need to finance various wars led governments to establish central banks and to provide central banking functions to privately owned banks. The most important issues included the regulation of banknote issuance and legal tender, the management of state funds, the financing of the state debt, as well as the relationship with the state, in other words, the content of central bank independence. Each country followed different paths, and accordingly, the classic and the Prussian models of central bank development can be described based on the different legislative steps. The study presents the main characteristics through the English, German, French, American and Hungarian examples, primarily by characterizing the legislative peculiarities and illuminating the political historical background by applying the methods of comparative law. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Central banks and finance ministries have been faced with growing calls for better monetary-fiscal coordination in recent years as the solution to an array of macroeconomic policy problems, promoted by an ever-wider range of stakeholders. Yet, how can the silver-bullet solution of coordination be expected to play out across very different political-economic contexts? This paper sheds light on this question by introducing a novel typology of monetary-fiscal coordination that can help us make sense of formal and informal coordination efforts in the post-2008 era. It zooms in on a peculiar but key aspect which monetary and fiscal authorities have sought to achieve coordination on: The fiscal backing of central banks' balance sheets to insure monetary policy against losses and 'insolvency'. To understand central bankers' aversion towards loss-making despite their ability to create currency, the paper develops a political economy account which emphasizes policy-makers' interpretations of their own independence and their desire for fiscal protection, in contrast to traditional accounts of delegation that treat independent agents as discretion-seekers and power-maximizers. The typology is illustrated with case studies of the European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan between 2008 and 2023, each representing a different type of monetary-fiscal coordination post-crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the "Slavery & the Bank" exhibition at the Bank of England Museum, which explores the institution's historical involvement in slavery. The exhibition highlights the connections between the Bank of England and slavery, including the personal fortunes made by bank officials through the slave trade and the bank's role in providing loans to businesses involved in slavery. The exhibition also acknowledges the challenges of accurately representing the lives of enslaved individuals due to the selective nature of historical archives. The article praises the exhibition for its critical approach and calls for reflection on current moral dilemmas in banking. It concludes by recommending a visit to the exhibition for those interested in the history of slavery and organizational memory. [Extracted from the article]

The UK's economic outlook has been revised downwards due to recent national accounts revisions, with GDP growth forecasts lowered to 1% for 2024 and 1.5% for 2025. Chancellor Rachel Reeves's speech at the Labour party conference suggests potential changes to fiscal rules to increase government investment. The Bank of England is expected to gradually cut interest rates to 4.75% by the end of 2024 and 3.75% by the end of 2025, with fiscal policy decisions influencing monetary policy. The forecast also anticipates a gradual housing market recovery and solid real wage gains in the coming year. [Extracted from the article]

The role of central banks in perpetuating and tackling the economic patterns associated with climate change has increasingly been subject to academic and political attention. The Bank of England is no exception, having received a new mandate to 'facilitate the transition to net zero' in March 2021. This follows the Bank's utilisation of its monetary tools to repeatedly stabilise the economic status quo since 2008, despite its ecological consequences. This article reveals the perceptions within the British state of the new mandate and the forms of institutional change demanded by it, based on a series of elite interviews with Treasury officials and other UK monetary policy experts, as well as a discourse analysis of Bank publications and speeches. We find that Bank actors lobbied for the new mandate to legitimise its development of climate risk assessments and licence internal dialogue on the implications of its monetary policy. But the mandate is perceived to be in immediate conflict with, and subservient to, the Bank's primary structural objective of maintaining price and financial stability, due to the potentially destabilising effects of private capital realignment during a net zero transition. Institutional change within the Bank is thus limited to extending its pre-existing function of mitigating risks to financial stability rather than facilitating decarbonisation through market-shaping governance of the financial sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The overnight money market rate is a key monetary policy tool. In recent years, central banks worldwide have developed new monetary policy strategies aimed at keeping its deviations from the policy rate small and short-lived. This paper describes the main instruments used for this purpose by the US Fed, the ECB and the BoE and also their policy responses to the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). Fractional integration and long-memory methods are then applied to investigate how those affected the persistence of policy spreads (i.e. the difference between overnight rates and policy rates) during different sub-periods. It is found that this increased sharply during the GFC but has fallen back in recent years. In the case of the ECB the introduction of the new €-STR benchmark in particular appears to have made monetary policy more effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As non‐majoritarian institutions are deliberately insulated from electoral pressure and ministerial hierarchy, they face an accountability deficit. This deficit can be reduced by embedding the organizations in a wider accountability landscape with multiple forums. Of particular relevance in this landscape are the news media, who may not only serve as account‐holders, but can also reinforce other forms of accountability. Yet, we know little about the conditions under which the media cover non‐majoritarian governance, and the existence of "reinforced accountability". Focusing empirically on news articles about the Bank of England (1997–2020), we trace coverage levels back to the announcement of key policy decisions and, to some extent, policy outcomes. We also find evidence of reinforced accountability, both in relation to parliamentary oversight and the Bank's own, voluntary account‐giving. These results provide reason for cautious optimism about non‐majoritarian accountability, at least in the case of a salient organization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article explores the concept of "immaculate disinflation," where inflation returns to target without a significant increase in unemployment. While the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank believe this is possible, the Bank of England predicts a rise in unemployment alongside inflation. However, the article argues that the Bank of England's view is overly pessimistic and that UK inflation will likely return to target without a major increase in unemployment. Factors influencing pay growth and inflation expectations in the UK, US, and eurozone are also discussed. The article concludes that disinflation in the UK is likely to be less severe than predicted by the Bank of England, unless there are adverse supply shocks. The decline in the labor share of GDP and the rise in profit share in the US and eurozone since 2019 is also examined, suggesting that a similar situation could occur in the UK. The article suggests that a sustained return of inflation to target and consistent pay growth is possible in the UK without a significant rise in unemployment. [Extracted from the article]

The environmental impacts of monetary policy received academic attention after the 2008 financial crisis and the 'market neutral' quantitative easing policies that followed. This article examines the Bank of England's Corporate Covid Financing Facility (CCFF) and the Asset Purchasing Facility (APF) between June 2020 and June 2021 to assess whether the Bank's response to the COVID-19 pandemic was aligned with the transition to sustainability. The data indicates that the Bank of England's monetary allocation schemes again served as a panacea for businesses with ecologically intensive business models and a Treasury committed to restoring the pre-existing growth model. Indeed, the Bank's QE schemes now represents an element of the crisis management governance that repeatedly 'locks in' the ecologically-calamitous economic trajectory at potential critical junctures. The Bank's shielding of its technocratic and depoliticised status has thus far inhibited any leadership role in tackling the climate crisis, despite its growing power as an actor of economic governance at times of crisis and purported enthusiasm to 'build back better'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the global economic outlook, focusing on various regions and countries. It highlights that the global economy is expected to experience a soft landing in 2024, with GDP growth forecasted at 2.4%. The article discusses the impact of the Red Sea crisis on shipping and inflation, as well as the potential reduction in production due to supply chain disruptions. It also provides specific forecasts for countries such as the US, China, Eurozone, Japan, and the UK, including GDP growth, inflation, and interest rate projections. The document emphasizes the importance of monitoring fiscal policy, housing market conditions, and the impact of tightening monetary policy on economic growth. [Extracted from the article]

Copyright of Zeitschrift für Bankrecht und Bankwirtschaft is the property of De Gruyter and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper discusses the transformation of the content, role, and status of economic research at the Bank of England in the past sixty years. We show how three factors (the policy functions and missions of the Bank, the attitude of its executives toward economics, and its organizational structure) shaped the evolution of in-house economic research at the Bank during three distinctive periods (1960–91; 1992–2007; 2007–14). Our account relies on a broad set of sources and methods (the Bank's publications, archives, interviews with current and former Bank economists, citation analysis, prosopography, and topic modeling). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Why do policymakers and economists within a policymaking institution choose to throw away a model and to develop an alternative one? Why do they choose to stick to an existing model? This article contributes to the literature on the history and philosophy of modelling by answering these questions. It delves into the dynamics of persistence, change, and building practices of macroeconomic modelling, using the case of forecasting models at the Bank of England (1974–2014). Based on archives and interviews, we document the multiple factors at play in model building and model change. We identify three sets of factors: the agency of modellers, institutional factors, and the material factor. Our investigation shows the diversity of explanations behind the decision to change a model: each time, model replacement resulted from a different combination of the three types of factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) is a comparative newcomer among think tanks and it has produced a wide‐ranging report on the state of the UK economy. It asks whether the UK economy is caught in a 'doom loop' where performance is bad, but policy options are constrained by the fiscal position. Unlike some SWOT analyses it looks as strengths as well as weaknesses, but these may favour the more prosperous parts of the UK. The ideas presented could help prevent the UK falling into the doom loop, but politicians tend to favour solutions which have a short‐term payback. We need long‐term thinking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study conducts a thorough investigation of digital Money in the distinctive context of India, clarifying its development, consequences, and future possibilities, specifically in relation to Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), analyzing its poten tial in the Indian context, its crucial role in the current digital revolution, and the advantages it offers to our country, enterprises, and various user groups.The study proposes aligning our economy with the ongoing digital transition in the global technology scene. In an intangible domain characterized by inexorable advancement, the shift towards a digital economy becomes essential to enhancing our worldwide position. This research, conducted as an exploratory study, utilizes ideas derived from current literature, case studies, books, and electronic resources. this comprehensive approach offers a clear understanding of key aspects of digital money, such as the idea of blockchain, its many forms and sectors, including wholesale and retail, and the examination of real-world applications in different nations. The study examines investigating phenomena such as initial coin offers (ICOs) and the revolutionary possibilities of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) and examines important literature issued by the Reserve Bank of India, the Bank of England, and existing works on centrally b acked currency, as well as by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). The data is enhanced through documentary analysis. The article concludes with a detailed and thoughtful discussion, providing valuable ideas and outlining potential future paths. As a result, it is essential to thoroughly categorize user groups for virtual currencies, especially those that have central bank support. this study provides a comprehensive grasp of the complex processes surrounding digital money and its potential to revolutionize the Indian socio-economic system. It is a significant resource for policymakers, industry experts, and researchers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Bank of England's asset purchase facility (APF) is expected to experience significant losses due to higher interest rates and bond yields. These losses are projected to be larger than those of other central banks due to the scale and maturity of the BoE's purchases. As a result, public debt will increase, and it is recommended to gradually reduce debt levels rather than immediately offsetting the losses. Future asset purchase programs should focus on short and medium-dated bonds, and fiscal rules should be reformed to allow for more public investment. The projected cost of quantitative easing is estimated to be £126bn, equal to 14% of the peak stock of asset purchases. The Bank of England's asset purchase programs have been relatively large compared to other central banks, and the average maturity of its bond holdings is higher, making it more vulnerable to losses from rising interest rates. The bank does not have many options to reduce these losses, and a hold-to-maturity strategy may not be feasible. The losses from the asset purchase program directly impact the government's debt ratio, potentially influencing the Treasury's decisions. It is suggested that transfers to and from the bank's asset purchase facility should be excluded from the public debt measure used for fiscal rules. The article also discusses the effectiveness and costs of quantitative easing as a monetary policy tool in the UK, suggesting that while it can stimulate growth, its long-term effects on GDP are minimal. Comparisons are made between the costs and effects of QE and public investment, with [Extracted from the article]

According to the article "Feature Article: The boost from falling rates will be a slow-burner," the Monetary Policy Committee is expected to begin cutting interest rates in May, resulting in a cumulative 100bps reduction by the end of 2024. However, the impact on economic growth is likely to be modest in 2024, with most of the benefits delayed until 2025 and beyond. The article also highlights that lower interest rates may have a positive fiscal impact, allowing for potential tax cuts in the March Budget. Additionally, the article discusses the potential challenges of lower rates on household net interest income and mortgage rates. Overall, the article suggests that while rate cuts may provide some support to the economy, the boost is expected to be gradual rather than immediate. [Extracted from the article]

According to the article "Feature Article: Three reasons why inflation will quickly return to target," the UK inflation outlook has changed due to decreases in oil and gas prices and a softening in core pressures. The forecast for CPI inflation in 2024 has been revised down to 2.1% from the previous forecast of 2.9%. Wholesale gas prices and the Ofgem energy price cap are expected to fall, which will further reduce inflation. Services inflation has been lower than expected, and the link between wages and prices is weakening. The Bank of England is likely to lower its inflation projections and may consider rate cuts. The recent decline in oil and gas prices has contributed to the change in the inflation outlook. Lower oil prices and the expected fall in the Ofgem price cap will reduce inflation. The article suggests that inflation will return to the 2% target in April, which is earlier than the Bank of England's forecast. The softer inflation outlook has implications for interest rate cuts and economic growth. Lower inflation is expected to lead to a stronger pickup in activity and an increase in real incomes. Consumer spending growth and GDP growth forecasts have been revised upwards. [Extracted from the article]

Summary: This paper studies spillovers across macroeconomic sectors in the United Kingdom, using data from the Bank of England's Flow of Funds statistics. We combine two different approaches to quantify the spread of economic deterioration to assess whether sectors with large bilateral economic linkages as measured through network data have a greater statistical likelihood of spillovers between them. The combination of both approaches reveals the Monetary Financial Institutions sector's role as shock absorber and identifies the most important channels of spillovers. The inferential discrepancies between network data and statistical spillovers highlight the contribution of the proposed methodology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate elasticities of substitution between components of the Bank of England's household-sector UK Divisia monetary aggregate using quarterly data from 1999 to 2019, encompassing the period surrounding the global financial crisis. The demand system includes interest-bearing sight and time deposits at monetary financial institutions as components, since deposit data for banks (excluding mutuals) and for mutuals are no longer published separately. We find that the elasticities of substitution that relate to changes in the user cost of noninterest-bearing monetary assets imply inelastic substitution over all or almost all of the sample and, consequently, a conventional monetary aggregate would be a highly misleading economic indicator relative to a Divisia monetary aggregate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A Bayesian typically uses data and a prior to produce a posterior. We shall follow the opposite route, using data and the posterior information to reveal the prior. We then apply this theory to inflation forecasts by the Bank of England and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research in an attempt to get some insight into the prior beliefs of the policy makers in these two institutions, especially under the uncertainties about the Brexit referendum, the Covid-19 lockdown, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In periods of history with rapid social and economic change, it is useful to examine the long-term history of particular arrangements. Money is one of these institutions that seems eternal and unchanging, but that has changed dramatically over time. For example, money was typically conceived as coins made of precious metal and stamped with the image of the ruler. As long-distance trade expanded in the early modern period, money was represented by paper, most often letters of exchange among merchants who trusted one another because of common membership in a community. The emergence of the fiscal/military state enabled populations to have some role in the issue and uses of money, such as the Italian city-states of Republican form, like Florence and Venice. After the "Glorious Revolution" in 1688, the Bank of England (BOE) innovated with merchant monopoly corporations engaging in state-supported long-distance trade, the stock of which backed public debt. The political controversies surrounding the formation of the BOE reveal some of the alternative possibilities, a merchant-oriented bank, supported by the Whigs, or a land bank supported by the Tories. After the industrial revolution, the use of credit for real investment aided the accumulation of surplus, by the productivity treadmill. After the Great Depression, the extension of finance into the lives of the citizens proceeded, with debt financing for housing, education, and retirement, encompassing the entire life cycle. The dominance of the United States after World War II enabled that country to sustain a hegemonic currency, based on the expansion of trade and supply chains to Emerging Market Countries. Along with the tech bubble in the second decade of the twenty-first century, the crypto bubble expanded hopes for an alternative form of money. Such a long-term history can be informed by analysis of the role of money as a symbol, mobilized by meanings enacted in human institutions. Such a view can provide a method of interpreting the long term evolution of money, restoring the political dimension and human agency to the abstract impersonal mechanical notion of the market. Such a perspective can better inform consideration of alternative institutions to accommodate challenges like geopolitical competition, war, and climate change. JEL Classification: B51, B52, G20, N20, P48 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

717 It is apparent that climate change is creating financial risks. These risks are of such a nature that they can be regarded as systemic: they are exogenous shocks which may simultaneously cause or contribute to the failure of multiple significant financial institutions. As a result, regulatory tools available to monitor and manage systemic risk have recently been deployed in the context of climate change risks. Such tools include stress testing and scenario analysis. This article examines international initiatives, such as those of the Network for Greening the Financial System, as well as specific central bank initiatives including those by the Bank of England. After some initial observations around climate data, stress test design, and central banks' mandate, this paper continues to discuss further possible inclusion in the prudential regulatory framework. In particular, the question is raised if capital requirements should be adjusted and if changes should be made to the risk management and governance framework. This paper argues in favour of the latter, but is more cautious as regards the former. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

John Franklyn Venner was a chartered accountant and senior partner in an eminent City of London firm of accountants. However, between 1940 and 1945, Venner worked at the heart of the unorthodox and top secret Special Operations Executive (SOE), which was set up to facilitate clandestine warfare. Venner used the accounting orthodoxy of financial controls, the recording of transactions, and regular financial reporting to build a strong bond of trust and confidence with the Treasury and Bank of England. This provided space for Venner to develop unorthodox financing schemes, including black market foreign currency transactions, which generated millions of pounds of currency and made a major contribution to the war effort. Venner died in 1955 at age 52. This biographical microhistory, using archival sources, brings his story out of the shadows and demonstrates how an eminent chartered accountant navigated the unorthodox world of the SOE during the Second World War. Data Availability: All data used are available from the public sources cited in the text, apart from the transcripts of the two James Venner interviews. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]