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Abstract Background The Bolsa Família cash transfer Program (BFP) aims to break the poverty cycle by providing a minimum income to poor families conditioned on their investment in human capital (such as, education and health) and currently is the largest Program in the world in terms of the number of beneficiaries. Because there is a scarcity of reviews grouping studies on the impacts of the BFP, the objective of this scoping review was to identify and describe studies which evaluate the impact of the BFP on poverty, health, education, and other related outcomes. Methods We searched for quantitative, qualitative, and mixed-method articles that assessed the impact of the BFP on any aspect of the beneficiaries' lives between 2003 and March 2021. We included quantitative articles that used experimental, quasi-experimental or pre and post comparison designs. We excluded articles that analyzed impacts on political outcomes. There was no age restriction for the participants. The search was done in seven electronic databases. Results One thousand five hundred forty-six papers were identified and 94 fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Poverty and health outcomes were the most common outcomes studied. We found consistent evidence of the positive impact of the BFP on poverty reduction, as well as employment outcomes. We also found positive impacts in relation to mortality rates for children and adults, school dropout and school attendance among children and adolescents, and violence related outcomes such as homicide, suicide, crime, and hospitalization. However, we also found some evidence that BFP increased intimate partner violence and gender stereotypes among women and no evidence of impact on teenage pregnancy. Conclusions Overall, the studies included found that BFP showed positive impacts on most poverty, health and education outcomes. More studies are needed to confirm some results, especially about violence and stereotype against women as there were few evaluations on these outcomes.

The research on redistributive strategies to secure support has been dominated by a core and swing voter model, which pits two parties against each other in a costly race for support. What are other options beyond targeting either swing or one's own core voters? This paper identifies a political scenario where core supporters from other parties are viable targets and sets out to test three dimensions that indicate when actors can effectively target them. This paper's main expectation is that by accounting for voters' ideological affinity, levels of fragmentation, and the potential to deliver their votes, parties can effectively target other parties' core supporters. The case of Brazil's Bolsa Família delivers evidence for the hypotheses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conditional Cash Transfers (CCTs) have become a key antipoverty policy in Latin America in the last 25 years. The ultimate goal of this kind of programs is to break the intergenerational transmission of poverty through the promotion of human capital accumulation of children in vulnerable households. In this paper, we explore this issue by estimating the long-run effects of the largest CCT in Latin America: the Brazilian Bolsa Familia. Through a combination of the two-stage-two-sample method and a difference-in-differences approach, we find evidence consistent with a positive long-run impact of Bolsa Familia among former beneficiaries. In particular, we find a significant positive effect on education and labor income, and a negative effect on the likelihood of being a current beneficiary of this social transfer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Este artigo tem o objetivo de analisar o comportamento da dinâmica econômi-ca municipal nordestina explicitada no Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) em relação ao volume do Programa Bolsa Família (PBF) destinado a cada ente, a proporção ob-tida dos Votos pelo Prefeito Eleito (VPE) diante do conjunto de votantes partici-pantes do pleito no local e a Coligação Partidária do Prefeito Eleito (CPPE) esta-belecida ou não com o governador estadual, partindo de variáveis per capita, nos períodos de 2004, 2008, 2012 e 2016. Metodologicamente, usou-se a mensura-ção dos resultados da pesquisa pelo modelo de regressão quantílica para os dados em painel. Os resultados mostraram que o PIB respondeu positivamente ao PBF e negativamente na maioria dos municípios ao VPE, e que o CPPE não trouxe impactos favoráveis sobre a economia municipal nordestina.

We examine the socio-economic consequences in Brazilian municipalities of one of the world's largest social welfare programmes – the Bolsa Família. Since the Bolsa Família endogenously targets municipalities with weaker local socio-economic conditions, it becomes challenging to reason about its causal effects on the local economy. We address this endogeneity by exploiting a change in the Bolsa Família regulation in 2012 that established a minimum per capita income of 70 reais for recipient families. Previously, additional financial benefits were available based on the number of children in the family, up to five. Following the change, large families effectively received a positive income shock. We investigate this discontinuity by comparing recipient families of different sizes with income nearing the 70 reais per capita threshold shortly before the shift at the municipality level. Municipalities' employment, income, and health metrics show consistent and positive results. However, we find no effect on education, which could be explained by the lack of robust education-related conditionalities that Bolsa Família recipients are required to report continuously to enjoy the programme's benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Early-life shocks often produce negative long-run consequences lasting into adulthood, but little is known about how childhood social programs interact with early-life environments. In this paper, we analyze the effect of early-life conditions on child health and evaluate whether access to a conditional cash transfer program is differentially effective among children who experienced adverse early-life events. We use variation in delays in enrollment from the rollout of Brazil's Bolsa Família program to analyze the impact of longer treatment durations alongside a variation of in utero rainfall to determine the potential for the program to drive catch-up growth. We find that the duration of Bolsa treatment impacts stunting, obesity, and other health outcomes, with the program being most effective among children whose in utero conditions predisposed them to worse health outcomes. Finally, we find that these effects are driven by children who receive Bolsa before age five and that girls experience more health gains. Overall, the duration of treatment matters, with some effects only appearing after one to two years of transfers, as does the timing of treatment, with some effects only appearing for younger initial recipients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introdução: O Programa Bolsa Família (PBF), que atende cerca de 14 milhões de famílias em todos os municípios brasileiros, foi criado em 2003 e transformado em lei em 2004 pelo Decreto nº 5.209/2004. A iniciativa tem ajudado a diminuir a desigualdade em todo o país enquanto é supervisionada em nível federal pelo Ministério do Desenvolvimento Social e Combate à Fome (MDS). O processo de transição nutricional pelo qual passou a população brasileira, em todas as faixas de renda, reforça a necessidade de avaliar os efeitos do PBF nos indicadores de saúde e no padrão de vida das famílias beneficiárias do programa. Objetivo: Relacionar o estado nutricional segundo o sexo de crianças assistidas pelo programa bolsa família no período de 2011 a 2016. Materiais e Métodos: Pesquisa de campo de abordagem quantitativa, exploratória, descritiva realizada na cidade de Canto do Buriti-PI, tendo como público-alvo crianças de ambos os sexos que foram beneficiadas no PBF, ingressantes no programa a partir do ano 2011 e que continuaram até 2016. Os dados de cada criança foram obtidos através do IMC para a idade e do percentil do IMC. Obtendo assim a classificação do estado nutricional de acordo com a tabela de curva de crescimento. Resultados: Ao se analisar os dados das 41 crianças avaliadas, observou-se que a maior parte delas estava na faixa etária de 7 a 9 anos (68%), matriculadas em série do ensino fundamental menor (68%). Pouco mais de metade das crianças (51%) eram do sexo masculino e pertencia a famílias com renda do benefício de 170 reais (56%). Em relação aos desvios no estado nutricional nas crianças quando ingressaram no programa em 2011, observou-se elevadas frequências de excesso de peso (48%) e obesidade (14%) entre as crianças do sexo masculino. Ao comparar a situação de 2016 com a anterior foi possível comprovar evolução positiva ao final desse período de 5 anos, marcada pela redução da frequência de excesso de peso para 14% e desaparecimento de casos de obesidade, situação ainda evidenciada pelo aumento da frequência de eutrofia de 19% para 72% acompanhada de redução da frequência de baixo peso de 19% para 14%. Quanto às crianças do sexo feminino, a situação encontrada em 2011 consistia em frequências de excesso de peso de 27%, obesidade de 14% e baixo peso de 19%. Em 2016 não foram encontrados casos de obesidade e a frequência de baixo peso diminuiu para 10%, com aumento das frequências de eutrofia e excesso de peso para, respectivamente, 57% e 33%. Desse modo, também foi constatada evolução favorável em que ocorreu recuperação do estado nutricional de parte das meninas que apresentavam baixo peso e desaparecimento de casos de obesidade que evoluíram para quadro de menor risco, ou seja, de excesso de peso. Conclusão: Observou-se que ambos os sexos apresentaram aumento na frequência de eutrofia, caracterizada por melhores condições de vida, na conclusão do estudo, e que a prole masculina apresentou os maiores índices de sobrepeso e obesidade no ano de seu nascimento.

O objetivo deste artigo é analisar a importância de a responsabilidade fiscal andar junto com a responsabilidade social. A concessão do Bolsa Família e de políticas públicas se sustentam a longo prazo desde que acompanhadas de políticas fiscais responsáveis. No primeiro capítulo este artigo apresentará uma reflexão sobre a importância das políticas públicas para o exercício da cidadania e sobre como o Estado Federal brasileiro foi desenhado a partir de uma lógica cooperativa, cuja prioridade é distribuir recursos fiscais para consolidar os objetivos de um Estado de Bem-Estar Social. O segundo capítulo mostrará como a federação brasileira corre o risco de insustentabilidade fiscal e de uma crise sistêmica caso as normas de controle orçamentário, como o teto de gastos, sejam abolidas sem outras normas que as substituam e demonstrará como é possível traçar um caminho de controle e convergência fiscal que seja sustentável a longo prazo e que traga os benefícios macroeconômicos esperados e permita o desenvolvimento de políticas públicas, dentre elas o Bolsa Família. É o caminho da convergência fiscal socialmente responsável.

Income transfer programs are important public policies in fighting poverty and reducing inequality. However, such a strategy is often criticised as being ineffective, as there is a risk that part of the resources is not destined for the poorest. This article aims to assess the current eligibility criteria of the Brazilian Bolsa Família program (BFP), which considers only self-reported income. Targeting indicators are proposed using the coverage and leakage rates of the program considering the current criterion and simulated criteria, defined according to the percentiles of poverty and propensity scores of a logit model based on the probability of belonging to the program's target audience. We evaluate the use of an alternative model for selecting beneficiaries and whether this could reduce the leakage rates of the program and increase the degree of targeting by transferring resources to those in the most vulnerable situation. Results indicate the program has a limited budget which is not enough to cover all the enrolled even if there was perfect targeting, i.e., the budget allocated to the BFP would cover almost 70% of the poor population. Moreover, we conclude that the current self-reported income criterion is less expensive and more effective than the proposed criterion based on the propensity score, considering the structure of the current program implementation system and the form of verification of the data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Resumo Quais os impactos do Programa Bolsa Família (PBF) na contracepção e na autonomia das mulheres tomarem decisões referentes à gravidez? Motivado por tal questionamento, este artigo contribui ao debate sobre efeitos do PBF ao considerar variáveis que sinalizam tanto o desejo da mulher quanto sua capacidade de decidir pela gravidez, além da efetividade dos métodos contraceptivos. Por métodos de Propensity Score Matching com dados da Pesquisa Nacional de Demografia e Saúde da Mulher e da Criança de 2006, não foram obtidas evidências de que o PBF contribuiu para a redução de uso de contraceptivos, tampouco para o estímulo à gravidez. Porém, os resultados indicam que o programa reduziu a probabilidade de as beneficiárias não serem atendidas por métodos contraceptivos quando demandados. Assim, pelo maior acesso a informações, incremento de renda ou aumento no poder de barganha, tais resultados sugerem que o PBF tem impactos positivos no poder de agência das mulheres.

Abstract Background Lack of nutrition, inadequate housing, low education and limited access to quality care can negatively affect children’s health over their lifetime. Implemented in 2003, the Bolsa Familia (“Family Stipend”) Program (PBF) is a conditional cash transfer program targeting poor households in Brazil. This study investigates the long-term benefits of cash transfers through intergenerational transmission of health and poverty by assessing the early life exposure of the mother to the PBF. Methods We used data from the 100M SINASC-SIM cohort compiled and managed by the Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), containing information about participation in the PBF and socioeconomic and health indicators. We analyzed five measures of newborn health: low (less than 2,500 g) and very low (less than 1,500 g) birth weight, premature (less than 37 weeks of gestation) and very premature (less than 28 weeks of gestation) birth, and the presence of some type of malformation (according to ICD-10 codes). Furthermore, we measured the early life exposure to the PBF of the mother as PBF coverage in the previous decade in the city where the mother was born. We applied multilevel logistic regression models to assess the associations between birth outcomes and PBF exposures. Results Results showed that children born in a household where the mother received BF were less likely to have low birth weight (OR 0.93, CI; 0.92-0.94), very low birth weight (0.87, CI; 0.84-0.89), as well as to be born after 37 weeks of gestation (OR 0.98, CI; 0.97-0.99) or 28 weeks of gestation (OR 0.93, CI; 0.88-0.97). There were no significant associations between households where the mother received BF and congenital malformation. On average, the higher the early life exposure to the PBF of the mother, the lower was the prevalence of low birth weight, very low birth weight and congenital malformation of the newborn. No trend was noted for preterm birth. Conclusion The PBF might have indirect intergenerational effects on children’s health. These results provide important implications for policymakers who have to decide how to effectively allocate resources to improve child health.

Conditional cash transfer programmes have been adopted by several developing countries. Despite their acceptance, the independent role of the conditionalities on education and health remain under scrutiny. We have used an ecological design to study the association between conditionality monitoring and educational outcomes in Brazil’s Bolsa Família programme. As programme coverage (taken as a proxy of cash transfers) and monitoring and enforcement of the educational conditionalities (proxy of conditionalities) are not correlated at the municipal level, this study fits a number of different ordinary least square (OLS) and growth-curve models to explain variation in dropout rates and school progression in basic education in public schools across municipalities. After controlling for a number of covariates, we did not find a significant association between Bolsa Família coverage and dropout and progression rates. On the other hand, monitoring of school attendance was negatively associated with dropout rates and positively associated with school progression (in the OLS models and in the initial status of the growth-curve models). The association between attendance monitoring and the rate of change of educational indicators in growth curve models was not the same, however, suggesting that its possible positive effect on educational indicators are not strong enough to affect a general tendency for these indicators to converge in the recent Brazilian context.

Introduction: The Bolsa Família Program (PBF), which serves about 14 million families in all Brazilian municipalities, was created in 2003 and transformed into law in 2004 by Decree n° 5.209/2004. The initiative has helped to reduce inequality across the country while being overseen at the federal level by the Ministry of Social Development and Fight against Hunger (MDS). The nutritional transition process that the Brazilian population has gone through, in all income brackets, reinforces the need to assess the effects of the BFP on health indicators and on the standard of living of the beneficiary families of the program. Objective: To relate the nutritional status according to sex of children assisted by the Bolsa Família program from 2011 to 2016. Materials and Methods: Field research with a quantitative, exploratory, descriptive approach carried out in the city of Canto do Buriti-PI, with the public target children of both sexes who benefited from the PBF, who entered the program from the year 2011 and who continued until 2016. Data for each child were obtained through BMI for age and BMI percentile. Thus obtaining the classification of nutritional status according to the growth curve table. Results: When analyzing the data of the 41 children evaluated, it was observed that most of them were aged between 7 and 9 years (68%), enrolled in a lower elementary school grade (68%). Just over half of the children (51%) were male and belonged to families with a benefit income of 170 reais (56%). Regarding deviations in the nutritional status of children when they joined the program in 2011, high frequencies of overweight (48%) and obesity (14%) were observed among male children. When comparing the situation in 2016 with the previous one, it was possible to prove a positive evolution at the end of this 5-year period, marked by the reduction in the frequency of overweight to 14% and the disappearance of cases of obesity, a situation still evidenced by the increase in the frequency of eutrophy from 19% to 72% accompanied by a reduction in the frequency of low weight from 19% to 14%. As for female children, the situation found in 2011 consisted of frequencies of overweight of 27%, obesity of 14% and low weight of 19%. In 2016, no cases of obesity were found and the frequency of underweight decreased to 10%, with an increase in the frequencies of normal weight and overweight to, respectively, 57% and 33%. In this way, a favorable evolution was also observed, in which there was a recovery of the nutritional status of the girls who were underweight and the disappearance of obesity cases that progressed to a lower risk condition, that is, overweight. Conclusion: It was observed that both sexes showed an increase in the frequency of eutrophy, characterized by better living conditions, at the conclusion of the study, and that male offspring had the highest rates of overweight and obesity in the year of their birth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to contribute for the recent economic and social debates on the selection criteria of the Bolsa Família Program (PBF). We analyzed classification probabilities on socioeconomic profile of the individuals in the Cadastro Único, especially for Brazilian South and Southeast regions, in 2009. The study applied three multivariate statistical techniques on individuals interviewed in the AIBF II survey. The main findings revealed that the criterion of inclusion of the individuals in the Bolsa Família by per capita income presents a relatively lower probability of error, even when considering other characteristics of multidimensional aspect of poverty. About 25.88% of the beneficiaries interviewed should not receive the benefit of the PBF. On the other hand, of the 8,647 interviewees who are not beneficiaries, 40.45% should receive the benefit if socio-economic characteristics were considered comprehensively.

The Bolsa Familia program of money transfers to the roughly 50 million poor at the bottom of the pyramid is internationally known but its success was grounded in a much wider set of 149 programs constituting an integrated and inter-sector policy. With inequality presently soaring not only in Brazil but throughout the world the aim of this paper is to understand how inclusive and sustainable policies can work both for society and the economy and assess their performance in Brazil as an illustration of institutional change as a key approach. Equally essential is understanding the power of the global financial interests which generated the drama of 1 percent having more wealth than the other 99 percent. Both mechanisms, of inclusion and exclusion, are analyzed here, on the basis of the Brazilian experience.

This paper examines the effects of conditional cash transfer programs in Argentina and Brazil on the existing regional disparities in urban poverty between 2011-2015, with northern regions in both countries being the poorest. The main CCT programs are Asignación Universal por Hijo in Argentina and Bolsa Familia in Brazil. Using microdata from Encuesta Permanente de Hogares for Argentina and Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios in the case of Brazil it is found that the absolute reductions in poverty associated to the CCTs are greater in the poorest regions in both countries. However, the poverty reductions in relative terms are greater in less poor regions in Brazil. In Argentina the poverty reduction in relative terms is the greatest in one of the two northern regions and the smallest in the other one, which is actually the poorest one. While greater relative reductions are expected in less poor regions, the result still suggests that the allocation of these fiscal instruments could be refined to better contribute to the reduction of regional disparities.

The analysis of massive databases is a key issue for most applications today and the use of parallel computing techniques is one of the suitable approaches for that. Apache Spark is a widely employed tool within this context, aiming at processing large amounts of data in a distributed way. For the Statistics community, R is one of the preferred tools. Despite its growth in the last years, it still has limitations for processing large volumes of data in single local machines. In general, the data analysis community has difficulty to handle a massive amount of data on local machines, often requiring high-performance computing servers. One way to perform statistical analyzes over massive databases is combining both tools (Spark and R) via the sparklyr package, which allows for an R application to use Spark. This paper presents an analysis of Brazilian public data from the Bolsa Família Programme (BFP—conditional cash transfer), comprising a large data set with 1.26 billion observations. Our goal was to understand how this social program acts in different cities, as well as to identify potentially important variables reflecting its utilization rate. Statistical modeling was performed using random forest to predict the utilization rated of BFP. Variable selection was performed through a recent method based on the importance and interpretation of variables in the random forest model. Among the 89 variables initially considered, the final model presented a high predictive performance capacity with 17 selected variables, as well as indicated high importance of some variables for the observed utilization rate in income, education, job informality, and inactive youth, namely: family income, education, occupation and density of people in the homes. In this work, using a local machine, we highlighted the potential of aggregating Spark and R for analysis of a large database of 111.6 GB. This can serve as proof of concept or reference for other similar works within the Statistics community, as well as our case study can provide important evidence for further analysis of this important social support programme.

Resumo Neste estudo propomos três medidas para potencializar o uso do Programa Bolsa Família e do Cadastro Único para Programas Sociais (Cadastro Único) como resposta às consequências econômicas da pandemia da COVID-19. As medidas propostas são as seguintes: (i) zerar a fila de espera do Programa e suspender procedimentos que possam levar à cessação de benefícios; (ii) reajustar benefícios e linha de elegibilidade do Programa; e (iii) conceder um benefício extraordinário para todas as famílias do Cadastro Único, beneficiárias ou não do Bolsa Família. As combinações para as alternativas destas medidas resultam em 56 cenários com parâmetros únicos, para os quais, com base nos dados do Cadastro Único e na folha de pagamentos do Bolsa Família, estimam-se o público alvo e os custos. Também avaliamos as eventuais dificuldades institucionais e operacionais para a implementação destas medidas, já que as iniciativas podem ter uma magnitude inédita na política social brasileira. Recomendamos uma combinação relativamente generosa destas medidas, por um período de pelo menos seis meses.

The years in which we live have been characterized by a strong dynamism in the development of the political spectrum in Europe, but also in the world. traditional spectrum, as populist. The main cases of populism in the period we live in range from traditional groupings, which were revived after the global economic crisis to electoral victories, such as the 5 Star Movement in Italy, UKIP in the UK and the election of Donald Trump in the US. What we want to address in this article is the return of a utopian idea that has not appeared since the period of the French Revolution.

Abstract This study descriptively explores the evolution of child labor rates in Brazilian states from 2000 to 2014 and indicates specific limits and contradictions of governmental measures adopted for its reduction. On one hand, we examine the coverage of the Bolsa Família conditional cash transfer (PBF), which is a transversal program to reduce poverty. On the other hand, we examine the design of Labor Inspections with a focus on child labor. For this, we used data from the National Household Sample Survey, the Ministry of Social Development and the Ministry of Labor and Employment. Our analysis showed that the expressive reduction of the child labor rate in Brazil was driven, in particular, by the rural areas of the North and Northeast regions. However, the agricultural sector is still the major employer of child labor. We also found that the distribution of governmental countermeasures are contradictory as to the rate of child labor in the states. Inspection activities are shorthanded in fighting child labor in domestic work and family agriculture as a result of the constitutional apparatus of the inviolability of homes. The PBF conditional cash transfer is also limited in tackling child labor given that poverty level determines eligibility.

Background: Lack of nutrition, inadequate housing, low education and limited access to quality care can negatively affect children's health over their lifetime. Implemented in 2003, the Bolsa Familia ("Family Stipend") Program (PBF) is a conditional cash transfer program targeting poor households in Brazil. This study investigates the long-term benefits of cash transfers through intergenerational transmission of health and poverty by assessing the early life exposure of the mother to the PBF.Methods: We used data from the 100M SINASC-SIM cohort compiled and managed by the Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), containing information about participation in the PBF and socioeconomic and health indicators. We analyzed five measures of newborn health: low (less than 2,500 g) and very low (less than 1,500 g) birth weight, premature (less than 37 weeks of gestation) and very premature (less than 28 weeks of gestation) birth, and the presence of some type of malformation (according to ICD-10 codes). Furthermore, we measured the early life exposure to the PBF of the mother as PBF coverage in the previous decade in the city where the mother was born. We applied multilevel logistic regression models to assess the associations between birth outcomes and PBF exposures.Results: Results showed that children born in a household where the mother received BF were less likely to have low birth weight (OR 0.93, CI; 0.92-0.94), very low birth weight (0.87, CI; 0.84-0.89), as well as to be born after 37 weeks of gestation (OR 0.98, CI; 0.97-0.99) or 28 weeks of gestation (OR 0.93, CI; 0.88-0.97). There were no significant associations between households where the mother received BF and congenital malformation. On average, the higher the early life exposure to the PBF of the mother, the lower was the prevalence of low birth weight, very low birth weight and congenital malformation of the newborn. No trend was noted for preterm birth.Conclusion: The PBF might have indirect intergenerational effects on children's health. These results provide important implications for policymakers who have to decide how to effectively allocate resources to improve child health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article describes and analyzes the daily life of the Silva Family, based on the consumption and expenditure of the money coming from the Bolsa Família Income Transfer Program. To talk about the Bolsa Família Program (PBF) based on the story of one of the women participating in this study and her family is to tell a little about her life story. To this end, an ethnographic research was carried out. We spent four years living together, visiting and talking. Based on the observations, we found that families in extreme poverty, such as the Silva family, are considered poor based on the "formal" criteria of the program - per capita income - and the "informal" criteria of the slum dwellers (housing, work etc.). However, they suffer from "poverty surveillance", based on a moralizing discourse about what and how to consume. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short-run income shocks can negatively impact school attendance when children are pulled out in order to work, either based on the need for greater income during negative shocks or the increased opportunity cost of child time during positive shocks. This paper proxies for income shocks using fluctuations in local rainfall and evaluates its impact on child schooling, labour force participation, and domestic work. We then investigate whether conditional cash transfers are able to protect school attendance during these temporary shocks. Using data on Brazil's Bolsa Família programme along with municipal-level rainfall data, we find that positive rainfall shocks cause children to increase the likelihood of paid labour but Bolsa partially mitigates these effects, though less so among boys and older children. Furthermore, we find evidence that even when children do not drop out of school during these shocks, Bolsa may not fully maintain their intensity of school attendance and shocks may hinder academic progress. These results suggest that higher wages cause children to substitute time away from schooling, but that Bolsa acts as a partial safety net that stabilises human capital investments during short-run shocks and may help produce larger long-run benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In several Latin American countries, conditional cash transfer programmes are a proven means of alleviating poverty in the short term and promoting education of children from disadvantaged families in the longer run. While the effectiveness of the Brazilian Bolsa Família for children's education outcomes up to 15 years of age has been widely documented, its contribution to the promotion of students of secondary school age has not been fully explored in light of the programme's expansion to 16-17 years olds in 2008. In this paper, I draw on Brazilian National Household Sample Survey data and use a difference-in-differences approach already applied in research in the context of Bolsa Família extension. Whereas these data were previously examined to detect intent-to-treat (ITT) effects due to insufficient information on treatment status, in this study I rely on a classifier method to additionally estimate average treatment effects on the treated who belong to families supposedly receiving Bolsa Família cash transfers. The results suggest that school attendance rates for 16-year-olds are particularly increased in the Brazilian Northeast, although the estimates are not significant when further time periods are taken into account. As comparably poor but non-recipient households have larger and consistently significant gains of school attendance, the effect on adolescent's education directly caused by the expansion of Bolsa Família remains ambiguous and thus cast doubt on the specific parallel trend assumption. In addition, no long-run ITT effects of the programme's expansion on school participation among 16 year old teenagers are found. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Resumo: O presente estudo discute os possíveis impactos do Programa Bolsa Família sobre a inserção laboral de seus beneficiários no município de São Luís. Desenvolve-se o perfil dos beneficiários residentes no município em termos de sua situação no mercado de trabalho e apresentam-se os resultados da pesquisa de campo realizada com gestores locais e beneficiários e não beneficiários do programa, de modo a apreender as possíveis mudanças, em termos de inserção laboral, experimentadas pelos beneficiários.

Resumo Esta pesquisa analisou o impacto do Programa Bolsa Família (PBF) no tempo na escola, em seus componentes (matrícula, presença e jornada) e nas motivações relacionadas a partir dos suplementos especiais da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD) de 2004 e 2006. A expansão de 67% na cobertura do PBF no período permite testar efeitos-dosagem desse programa. Não se rejeitaram as hipóteses de impacto do PBF no tempo na escola e em seus componentes. Outra estratégia de identificação revela que os jovens marginalmente elegíveis em idade ao PBF apresentaram chances 62%, 8% e 6% maiores de frequentar a escola, cumprir a presença mínima e estudar mais do que 4 horas por dia, respectivamente, do que os quase elegíveis. Por fim, testes sobre as motivações alegadas para transgredir as condicionalidades escolares não descartam um efeito de alívio de renda corrente proporcionado pelo PBF.

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Copyright of Revista do Serviço Público (Civil Service Review) is the property of Revista do Servico Publico and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

No artigo fizemos uma síntese da dissertação de mestrado de uma das autoras. Os objetivos são apreender e analisar os significados da manutenção do Programa Bolsa Família em conjuntura de avanços do Estado neoliberal no período de 2016 a 2020 e identificar os efeitos do Novo Regime Fiscal no Programa e na vida das famílias beneficiárias. Trata-se de uma pesquisa qualitativa, bibliográfica e documental, realizada em livros, artigos, dissertações, teses. Fizemos uso da rede virtual em geral, google acadêmico, portal de periódicos. Trata-se de uma abordagem crítica à luz do referencial histórico marxista. O processo de investigação e análise teve como suposto que as contrarreformas vêm desmontando a seguridade social brasileira. Considerando o avanço do neoliberalismo e suas crises econômica, fiscal, política, social, destacamos que a reforma fiscal implementada no país em 2016, vem impactando a seguridade social e as ações de proteção social como o Programa Bolsa Família objeto do estudo. Refletimos supostos efeitos causados no Programa e famílias na vigência por 20 anos do novo regime fiscal. Identificamos estimativas, evidências de efeitos expressados em retrocessos, retração do orçamento do PBF e crescente exclusão de beneficiários. Também identificamos significados, tendências da manutenção do PBF até hoje. Submetido em: 28/05/2021 Aceito em: 15/06/2021

Este artigo contribui para os recentes debates econômicos e sociais sobre os critérios de seleção do Programa Bolsa Família (PBF). Para tanto, o estudo analisa as probabilidades de classificação dos indivíduos beneficiários e não beneficiários no Cadastro Único para as regiões Sul e Sudeste em 2009. A avaliação procede a partir de três técnicas de estatística multivariada sobre as características dos indivíduos contidos na Pesquisa de Avaliação de Impacto do Programa Bolsa Família (AIBF II). Os resultados indicam que o critério de inclusão dos indivíduos ao Bolsa Família pela renda per capita apresenta uma probabilidade de erro relativamente menor, mesmo ao considerar outras características de aspecto multidimensional da pobreza. Aproximadamente 25,88% dos beneficiários entrevistados não deveriam receber o benefício do PBF. Por outro lado, dos 8.647 entrevistados que não são beneficiários, 40,45% deveriam receber o benefício se fossem consideradas as características socioeconômicas de maneira abrangente.

ABSTRACT: Benford Law (BL) states that the occurrence of significant digits in many natural and human phenomena data sets are not uniformly scattered, as one could naively expect, but follow a logarithmic-type distribution. Here, we present a method that consists of the use of BL analysis over first and first-two digits, three statistical conformity tests – Z-statistics, Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Chi-square (χ2) as well as the summation test which looks for excessively large numbers, having fraud detection as one of its application. We developed the method for fraud detection in the case of the Brazilian Bolsa Familia welfare program. In this case, we submitted four periods of Brazilian welfare program payments to the method with a dataset of 13,442,529 records. We provide a practical implementation of the method based on open-source R library released on a public repository. Furthermore, code implementation of the algorithm as well as datasets are freely available. Advantages of the algorithm are listed below:• The method was developed based on open source libraries• The technique is simple, rapid and ease of use• Easily applicable to other social welfare program auditing

This goal is demonstrate that the implementation of fundamental rights in itsintegrety can create the necessaries conditions to the ensemble of well-being in brazilianSociety. As reference is taken into account the program ̈Bolsa Familia ̈ as public policieaimed to reduce poverty and misery, focusing in Northeast semi-arid as a prime field ofobservation of its direct impact. Considering the history approach to identify problems whichhave a political-legal nature that induce state actions barriers striving for social equality. Inconclusion, the sustainable growth depends of articulated realization of social rights.

O Programa Bolsa Família (PBF) está entre as mais importantes políticas sociais do Governo Federal atualmente. Entretanto, ainda que seja referência internacional no combate à pobreza, o PBF é criticado por aparentemente não estimular seus beneficiários na busca por emprego. Este fenômeno é chamado “Efeito Preguiça”. Diante disso, este artigo pretende contribuir com a discussão investigando os impactos do Programa Bolsa Família no combate à pobreza e redução da desigualdade em Mato Grosso, bem como analisar se o Programa influencia no desestímulo da inserção de seus beneficiários no mercado de trabalho no período de 2004 e 2014. Quanto aos procedimentos metodológicos, serão utilizados a pesquisa bibliográfica e o teste de Correlação de Pearson. Os resultados confirmam o PBF como um eficiente e eficaz instrumento de combate à pobreza, reduzindo a desigualdade de renda e, não demonstrando gerar o Efeito Preguiça nos beneficiários de Mato Grosso.

Copyright of Pegada is the property of Pegada and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The Conditional Cash Transfer Programs (CCTPs) have been shown to be effective in reducing poverty and inequality, improving education and health, and social inclusion of a significant portion of society. However, one of the aspects still unwell studied about the CCTPs is the potential of these programs to stimulate the permanence of low-income Brazilian workers in the informal market, with the purpose of remaining "invisible" to the program supervisors and thus receiving benefits. To analyze this behavior in the labor market in six Brazilian state's capitals, an Error Correction Vector (VEC) was used. The study results show that there is a positive and causal relationship between the number of family allowance beneficiaries and the number of people in the labor market. Although these variables have a positive and persistent causal relationship over time, the effects of the Family Grant Program on the informal labor market were small in the analyzed period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Revista Opara: Ciências Contemporâneas Aplicadas is the property of Revista OPARA and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This study suggests three measures to enhance the potential of the Bolsa Família program and Single Registry for Social Protection (Cadastro Único) as responses to the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose to: (i) enroll all eligible households already in the Cadastro Único in the Bolsa Família program, and postpone all verification and recertification processes that could result in benefit cuts; (ii) adjust the eligibility thresholds of Bolsa Família and the value of the benefits; and (iii) grant an emergency benefit, for at least six months, to all families enrolled in the Single Registry (regardless of whether they are Bolsa Família beneficiaries or not) whose per capita income is below half a minimum wage. The combination of these measures results in 56 different scenarios. Based on the data from the Single Registry and the Bolsa Família payroll, the study estimates the target audience and costs. Given the unprecedented magnitude of these measures, the study also emphasizes possible institutional and operational difficulties for their implementation. A combination of these measures is recommended, with a duration of at least six months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The Bolsa Família Program (PBF) is an important public policy that made it possible to break the cycle of misery for millions of families. Once the program is consolidated, it is necessary to analyze the ways in which it can be improved, in order to increase compliance with the so-called conditionalities (such as school attendance and compliance with vaccination schedules). Thus, this research explores specific aspects of the PBF, analyzes its main conditionalities from the perspective of Behavioral Economics (BE) and investigates which measures could contribute to the improvement of the Program. Methodology: A bibliographic review about the PBF and the main assumptions of BE was made, detailing possible insights that could be used in the improvement of the Program. Results: In light of BE, this study proposes a simplification in the language used with the beneficiaries of the program in the warning letter that is sent in case of non-compliance with any conditionality. This study also proposes an impact evaluation to ascertain whether the suggested behavioral insights produced the expected effects. Practical contributions: This study aims to contribute to the improvement of the PBF as a public policy, to increase the rate of compliance with the conditionalities associated with the program. Academic contributions: In the academic field, this study contributes to the social policy literature, exploring the optimization and simplification of communication between the beneficiaries of public policy and the State. In addition, the article makes innovative contributions to the Brazilian literature on government communication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The years in which we live have been characterized by a strong dynamism in the development of the political spectrum in Europe, but also in the world. traditional spectrum, as populist. The main cases of populism in the period we live in range from traditional groupings, which were revived after the global economic crisis to electoral victories, such as the 5 Star Movement in Italy, UKIP in the UK and the election of Donald Trump in the US. What we want to address in this article is the return of a utopian idea that has not appeared since the period of the French Revolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Revista Competitividade e Sustentabilidade - ComSus is the property of Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Parana and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Bolsa Família is the largest conditional cash transfer program (CCT) in the world and seems to exert a consistent impact on income distribution as well as on electoral outcomes. Thiago Moraes and Romer Santos (2014) when studying the elections of 2006, 2010, and 2014 verified that the impact of the Bolsa Família program, measured by the volume of searches in Google was a strong predictor of the electoral results. On this axis, the program negatively affected the votes of the candidates for the PSDB presidency and at the same time favored the votes of the PT. In this work, the methodology proposed by Thiago Moraes and Romer Santos (2014) was applied to the context of the First and second round of the 2018 presidential race. Three results are noteworthy: (I) as verified in the elections of 2006, 2010, and 2014, the Bolsa Família in 2018 continued to exert great pressure in the electoral arena; (II) in the first round, the Bolsa Família factor disfavored the votes of Bolsonaro, Amoêdo, and Alckmin at the same time that it favored the voting of Haddad. In the second round, the same repeats as predicts the logic of the model the Bolsa Família as an independent variable subtracts votes from Bolsonaro and increases the vote of Haddad. (III) The "Bolsa Família effect" was present in both shifts but was more significant in the first round of the dispute. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this article is to compare the personal well-being of beneficiaries and nonbeneficiaries of CCT, living in two-parent and single parent households headed by men or by women. Departing from the HDI methodology, we build a Multidimensional Welfare Indicator (MWI) using microdata from the 2010 Census. The results show that people living in household headed by beneficiary women have better welfare conditions than those headed by beneficiary men. However, it is lower than the well-being conditions of people living in household headed by women and men who are not beneficiaries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conditional cash transfer programs (CCTs) have emerged as an important social welfare innovation across the Global South in the last two decades. That poor mothers are typically the primary recipients of the grants renders easy, but not necessarily correct, the notion that CCTs empower women. This article assesses the relationship between the world's largest CCT, Brazil's Bolsa Família, and women's empowerment. To systematize and interpret existing research, including our own, it puts forth a three-part framework that examines the program's effects on economic independence, physical health, and psychosocial well-being. Findings suggest that women experience some improved status along all three dimensions, but that improvements are far from universal. A core conclusion is that the broader institutional context in which the Bolsa Família is embedded—that is, ancillary services in health and social assistance—is crucial for conditioning the degree of empowerment obtained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the relationship between educational outcomes in access and socioeconomic levels of the population from Brazil, focusing on conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs (Bolsa Escola/Bolsa Familia) and the comparison between Brazil and the rest of Latin America in terms of improvements in educational outcomes. To do this, we analyze, for the 2000–2014 period, different indicators of educational outcomes at the aggregate level and/or income levels and poverty. These analyses are realized on the basis of microdata by country and year, homogeneously processed according to the criteria of the SEDLAC base. We conclude that the positive effect of that program is a robust conclusion, both in terms of impact studies and the evolution of aggregate data. It is also observed that Brazil must intensify efforts in basic education so as not to be left behind in the context of Latin America. Finally, the lack of progress in the tertiary/university sector calls for some thought on whether it is not necessary to modify the conditionalities of the program.