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In this study using yearly data, it is examined if the effect of money supply (broad money) on inflation is asymmetric or not. 38 countries which have 5% and above inflation rate in average during the period of 1989–2018 are investigated through the panel data analyses. The study differs from other researches, which use monetary shocks in explaining the asymmetric relation, in which that it uses broad money change intervals along with control variables to see the asymmetric impact. Using broad money change intervals, it is concluded that the relation between broad money and inflation is explained better in the asymmetric pooled and fixed effect panel data models, compared to the symmetric models. According to the results, the effects of negative and positive changes in money supply on inflation are not symmetric. Moreover, as broad money increases, inflation goes up further. In the light of this information, it is possible to mention an asymmetric relation between broad money and inflation.

Monetary analysis has been out of fashion lately. However recent economic and inflation dynamics call for renewed attention. Since 2021, broad money growth has been associated with high inflation and overheated production. Central banks and academia should pay more attention to monetary analysis to understand the economic dynamics and formulate better monetary policy. This article briefly reviews the monetary analysis practices of major central banks and then focuses on China as a case study. We set out the features of the balance sheet of depository corporations, and use it as a basic framework for monetary analysis. There are seven money‐supply channels of broad money, which fluctuate because of seasonality, demand conditions, regulation, and financial institutions micro‐managing indicators. Any change of broad money will be reflected through the balance sheet. Applications include analysing long‐term evolution of money supply channels, analysing and predicting monetary growth, recording major financial incidents, and so forth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study using yearly data, it is examined if the effect of money supply (broad money) on inflation is asymmetric or not. 38 countries which have 5% and above inflation rate in average during the period of 1989-2018 are investigated through the panel data analyses. The study differs from other researches, which use monetary shocks in explaining the asymmetric relation, in which that it uses broad money change intervals along with control variables to see the asymmetric impact. Using broad money change intervals, it is concluded that the relation between broad money and inflation is explained better in the asymmetric pooled and fixed effect panel data models, compared to the symmetric models. According to the results, the effects of negative and positive changes in money supply on inflation are not symmetric. Moreover, as broad money increases, inflation goes up further. In the light of this information, it is possible to mention an asymmetric relation between broad money and inflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main purpose of this study is to analyze how different macroeconomic factors have influenced the financial development of countries in transition as well as the effect of these factors on the volatility of the banking sector in these countries. Secondary data acquired and processed from yearly statistics reports of the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the OECD, the European Central Bank, Eurostat, and others were used to develop this research. In the analytical section of the literature review, numerous scientific papers by various authors that have examined the issue of financial development in the economies of various countries have been reviewed. This research covers data from 2005 to 2020, which will be examined using panel and time series econometric models. Based on the study's econometric findings, we can conclude that non-performing loans, natural resources, market liberalization, GDP per capita, inflation, and interest rates have a statistically significant impact on the financial development of transition countries by determining the amount of broad money and the volume of bank loans and deposits in these countries' financial systems. The empirical findings of this study will serve as good scientific and empirical evidence for future studies in the field of financial development and economic growth, as well as practical evidence for governments around the world in the form of strategic macroeconomic policies that will positively affect the financial development of countries in transition. In relation to essential conclusions, this research offers true and consistent findings. The studied period (2005-2020) offers a compelling time frame for making sound findings and recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the dynamic relationship between growth, inflation, and real money balances in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). We apply a new approach by extending comprehensive econometric methods so that monetary dynamics can be better understood in the West African sub-region. The study obtained data from the World Bank from 2006 to 2021 and covered 15 countries. For robustness checks, we estimate dynamic ordinary least squares and fully modified ordinary least squares. These findings reveal the existence of a significant cointegration relationship between growth, real balance, and inflation. Furthermore, this study found that real balance has a positive long-run dynamic impact on growth. Likewise, there is a short-run positive impact of money and inflation on growth. We contribute to the literature on the money-growth nexus by focusing on West Africa, which faces macroeconomic vulnerabilities due to structural imbalances. These findings have policy implications for central banks and the Fiscal Agency. Central Banks must collaborate to reduce money in the informal sector, while Fiscal Authorities must control inflation collectively.

Most research on financial development and non-resource economic growth presents a wide range and, in some cases, even conflicting results. Evidence from emerging and resource-rich countries may enrich the scientific discourse with new empirical evidence. Therefore, the study aims to assess the mutual impact of financial development and non-resource economic growth in Azerbaijan. The growth rate of real non-oil gross domestic product (GDP), the share of loans in non-oil GDP, and the share of the broad money in GDP were taken as variables for the model. Monthly variable data from 2005–2022 were processed using the unrestricted vector autoregression model. The study’s results did not provide evidence for long-run causality between the finance sector and non-oil growth. But there are short-run and unidirectional causal relationships – from loans to non-oil growth and from broad money to loans. The results also showed that the increase in loans does not support broad money growth. Policymakers are encouraged to increase incentives for lending to the non-oil sector. Supporting money supply growth through increased deposits and non-cash money could also positively impact non-oil growth through loan channels. The development of the securities market could also open up additional financing opportunities for entrepreneurs in the non-oil sector. AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments are expressed to all the scientists whose works have become a theoretical and methodological foundation for the study. It is also necessary to note the Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan, which provides open access to the use of an extensive information base.

This study investigates the effects of military expenditure, final consumption expenditure, gross national expenditure, net income, broad money, and total reserves on Pakistan's economic growth. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) and robust regressions methods are used to examine the relationship among variables. The outcomes revealed that total reserves positively impacted the economic growth during positive and negative short- and long-run shocks. Final consumption expenditure and gross national expenditure negatively influenced the economic growth. Similarly, military expenditure and net income positively and negatively impacted the economic growth, while broad money has adverse and positive relation to economic growth. The results of the robust least squares and stepwise least squares approaches showed that all variables except military expenditure and reserves have positive impact on economic development. This study suggests that government should carefully monitor defence-related investment to maintain economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of the money supply in different states of inflation and economic growth in South Africa from 1990 to 2021. The term "states" defines periods of low and high rates of economic variables of interest. Markov-switching dynamic regression (MSDRM) and time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) are used in this paper. The contribution of this paper is not only based on the long run but also on the examination of the impact of the money supply in different states of inflation and economic growth. Moreover, the use of shock accounts for time-varying elasticity. It is found that there is a 0.70% decrease in the gross domestic product for a 1% increase in money supply in state 1, while in state 2, the money supply was insignificant. The money supply had a negative and a positive impact on inflation in states 1 and 2, with rates of 0.05% and 0.35% in the respective states. The money supply had a high multiplier effect on gross domestic product and inflation. More than 5 years were spent in each state for both gross domestic product and inflation, while the transition probability of moving and returning to each state is significant. The trade-off of using the money supply for economic growth and inflation is evident in South Africa. It is recommended that the state of the economy be considered when using the money supply in an effort to stimulate economic growth or stabilise inflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Excessive money creation during the Covid pandemic has resulted in Britain's worst episode of inflation since 1990–91. The backdrop to this failure of monetary policy is the Bank of England's aggregate demand/aggregate supply framework together with the Monetary Policy Committee's neglect of broad money. An alternative way to operate monetary policy is urgently needed. A significantly improved monetary policy outcome could be achieved by shifting from trying to steer the economy using interest rates and quantitative easing or quantitative tightening to reliance on the relative stability of income velocity (the ratio of nominal GDP to broad money) as a means of managing aggregate demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research paper aims to empirically analyze the relationship between economic growth and financial development, in the region of Western Balkan countries, over the period 2010-2020. The relationship is demonstrated by the effects of independent variables such as trade (T), inflation consumer prices (ICP), general government final consumption (GGFCE), domestic credit to the private sector (DCPS), broad money (BM), and the real interest rate (IR), on the dependent variable, such as GDP growth. Hence, to evaluate this impact, we employed the regression model. Although, a correlation matrix is presented to identify the relationship between the study variables. Based on the results presented, there is a positive relationship between trade, inflation rate, and interest rates. Additionally, based on the regression results that were produced using the fixed effect technique, it can be seen that trade (T), inflation (ICP), interest rates (IR), and domestic credit to the private sector (DCPS), positively impact economic growth. The main objective of this paper is to contribute to a better understanding of this connection and draw new conclusions that might greatly benefit policymakers and the Western Balkan community, by considering the fundamental role of the financial sector in sustainable economic growth. The study's second objective is to fill the vac-uum in the literature for this period and a sample of counties according to specific macroeconomic variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the strategic objectives of China is to increase renewable energy consumption by reducing non-renewable energy consumption. This motivates us to carefully investigate the asymmetric effects of financial deepening on renewable and non-renewable energy consumption for China, using annual data from 1990 to 2019. The results show that in China, a positive shock in bank deposits and broad money has a significant increasing effect on renewable energy consumption, while a negative shock in bank deposits and broad money has also a significant increasing effect on renewable energy consumption in the long-run. Moreover, positive change in bank deposits and broad money has an inverse impact on non-renewable energy consumption, while negative change has stimulating non-renewable energy consumption in long run. Thus, government and policymaker's policies aimed at promoting financial deepening in China must be persistent and sustainable to foster renewable energy consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Role of money demand occupies a central place in regulating the monetary management of the economy and a topic of keen interest among researchers and academics (Sichei & Kamau, 2012). Growing money demand ensures an upsurge in the economic activity and vice versa. The present study analyzes the money demand function in Pakistan. The ARDL method to co-integration is used on data ranged between 1972 and 2018. The results showed that statistically significant effects of all main hypothesized factors including number of bank branches, population growth rate and agricultural output are found positive, negative and negative, respectively, both in the short-run and long- run. Whereas the effect of traditional factors viz., income and inflation rate on money demand appeared as positive, and statistically significant. The broad money demand function appeared to be stable in Pakistan. Policy to be focused on certain factors is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main aim of this study is to investigate the determinants of inflationary experience in Ethiopia. The study focused on economic and econometric criterion to examine the long run and short run impacts of macroeconomic variables on inflation in Ethiopia. In order to accomplish this paper, the study has employed time series data for the period from 1974/75 to 2014/15. To check for the stationarity of the variables, the researcher has used augmented dickey fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root test and all variables become stationary at first difference. Then, long run and short run estimates had been examined by using Johansen Co-integration methodology and Vector Error Correction approach with lag length of two. The data on macroeconomic variables were taken from National Bank of Ethiopia, Ethiopian Economic Association and World Bank database. The findings of the study indicated that in the long run consumer price index has found to be positively influenced by money supply, real gross domestic product and overall budget deficit in which these all variables are positive and statistically significant determinants of inflation. The growth of money supply should be continually kept in control, given its long run potential impact in accelerating inflationary pressure to ensure stable price level in an economy and keep on the growth of real gross domestic product with single digit inflation rate and displaying a high sense of transparency in fiscal operations bring about a realistic budget deficit that would serve as incentives to productivity and stable general price level.

This paper investigates the impact of the money supply in different states of inflation and economic growth in South Africa from 1990 to 2021. The term “states” defines periods of low and high rates of economic variables of interest. Markov-switching dynamic regression (MSDRM) and time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) are used in this paper. The contribution of this paper is not only based on the long run but also on the examination of the impact of the money supply in different states of inflation and economic growth. Moreover, the use of shock accounts for time-varying elasticity. It is found that there is a 0.70% decrease in the gross domestic product for a 1% increase in money supply in state 1, while in state 2, the money supply was insignificant. The money supply had a negative and a positive impact on inflation in states 1 and 2, with rates of 0.05% and 0.35% in the respective states. The money supply had a high multiplier effect on gross domestic product and inflation. More than 5 years were spent in each state for both gross domestic product and inflation, while the transition probability of moving and returning to each state is significant. The trade-off of using the money supply for economic growth and inflation is evident in South Africa. It is recommended that the state of the economy be considered when using the money supply in an effort to stimulate economic growth or stabilise inflation.

For a given quantum of monetary base, the overall supply of money in the economy crucially hinges on the value of money multiplier. Thus, from the perspective of monetary policy, the money multiplier assumes paramount importance. In view of this, the present paper carries out a detailed econometric analysis of the narrow as well as broad money multipliers in India over the period 1951-52 through 2019-20 using the recent data released by the Reserve Bank of India. The empirical results validate the theoretically hypothesised role of the behavioural asset ratios of public and banks viz., the currency-deposit ratio, time-deposit ratio and reserve-deposit ratio in affecting the money multiplier in India. Further, Chow's breakpoint test exhibits a structural change in the underlying empirical relationships on account of crucial macroeconomic developments such as bank nationalisation, adoption of financial reforms and demonetisation thereby giving useful insights for monetary policy-making in the Indian economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we are motivated by the fact that little is known about the relative performance of broad and narrow Divisia monetary aggregates, and by recent work that tests and rejects the appropriateness of the aggregation assumptions that underlie the various monetary aggregates published by the Federal Reserve as well as a large number of monetary asset groupings suggested by earlier studies. We present a comprehensive comparison of narrow versus broad Divisia monetary aggregates within three classes of empirical models. We compute correlations between the cyclical components of Divisia monetary aggregates at different levels of aggregation and the cyclical component of industrial production. We test for Granger causality running from the Divisia aggregates to industrial production and various other measures of real economic activity. We also reestimate a structural vector autoregression based on earlier work by Leeper and Roush [(2003) Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 35, 1217–1256] and Belongia and Ireland [(2015) Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 33, 255–269; (2016) Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 48, 1223–1266], modifying that earlier work using monthly rather than quarterly data and extending it, both using broad as well as narrower Divisia monetary aggregates and by allowing for Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) behavior in the structural shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indonesia is a country that implements a dual banking system. The progress of the conventional financial industry coincides with the development of the Islamic financial sector. This study discusses the influence of external factors namely inflation, broad money (M2), BI rate and internal factors namely return on asset (ROA) and operational efficiency ratio (OER) on profit-sharing of Islamic banking deposits and conventional banking deposits interest. The method used in this study was the Error Correction Model (ECM). Based on the results of the study, it can be concluded that inflation and broad money (M2) affects the profit-sharing of deposits. Whereas the conventional bank deposit interest is influenced by ROA, OER, BI rate, inflation, and M2. The fluctuation of external and internal variables has an impact on Islamic banks and conventional banks in determining interest and profit-sharing of deposits.

This study examines the nonlinear relationship between financial development and economic growth in Nigeria, covering the period from 1980 to 2018, in an effort to explain the direction of linearities and determine the exact threshold policy points for financial development variables. The financial development proxies adopted in the study are broad money and credit to the private sector. While deploying the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach to ascertain the asymmetric cointegration status of financial development and GDP growth, the turning point between the variables of study is estimated using the threshold regression approach. The findings from the NARDL analysis show that the relationship between the financial development variables and economic growth are cointegrated in the long run and have a U-shaped asymmetrical relationship. Furthermore, the discrete threshold regression analysis reveals that while the switching point for broad money is 17.73% of GDP, it is 6.03% of GDP for credit to the private sector. Therefore, whenever the level of the financial development indicators falls below the estimated tipping point, there is a drag on the country's economic growth. The study recommends the implementation of the financial development threshold points as the minimum levels by which to achieve positive effects on the country's economic growth. A further recommendation to achieve rapid progress in financial development entails the rapid monetisation of financial transactions and the expansion of financial access as well as the strengthening of efficiency and regulation of the financial markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The actuality of the given research is determined by the importance of establishing the adequatevolume of international reserves held by the Central Bank. The main purpose of the article is investigationof new methods of calculating the adequate level of international reserves for emerging economies,proposed by the IMF and those existing in international practice. The main research methods weresystemic analysis and logic synthesis. The main result obtained in this article, as a result of the research,is proposing a special approach in applying the IMF methodology in the Republic of Moldova,considering the dependence of the economy on the export of labor. The conducted calculations show asignificant decrease in the level of international reserves of NBM over the past two years and theirapproach to the critical value. To overcome internal imbalances, the international reserves managementshould suppose the accumulation of a higher volume than the average, which would partly compensate theshortcomings in implementing reforms of transforming the economy of the Republic of Moldova,improving their efficiency and quality of domestic policy.

Depreciation in the dollar price have been blamed for inflation but how it affects the macroeconomic activities prevailing in developing countries is still missing in literature. Thereby this study explores the transmission of dollar shocks on inflation in Pakistan for a time period from 1980-2018 using the explanatory variables: past inflation, dollar prices, broad money supply, govt. expenditures, external debt and oil prices. This study uses unit root tests of stationarity and ARDL method and the method of error correction to investigate the relationship among inflation and the above stated variables in together with long-run and short-run. We found significant relationship amongst inflation and four variables, dollar prices, money supply, Govt. expenditures and oil prices. These variables (dollar prices, govt. expenditures, oil prices) have impact on inflation in the long and short-run, in particular, a deduction in them will lead to higher prices. Money supply has a positive and low impact relationship with inflation, while the other explanatory variable (external debt) have insignificant impact on inflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper investigates the impact of early-life inflation experiences on political cycles. • We find that growing-up in an inflation crisis influences monetary policy-making during electoral periods. • This effect is more pronounced when central bankers have faced multiple inflation crises. Using a newly constructed dataset, this paper investigates the impact of early-life inflation experiences on political cycles in 30 African countries over the period from 1980 to 2020. We propose that central bankers who have weathered an inflation crisis during their formative years are less likely to adopt accommodative monetary policies during electoral periods. As a result, this diminishes or eliminates the occurrence of a political monetary cycle. Our empirical analysis substantiates this hypothesis. Importantly, it is not merely the presence of an inflation crisis in an African central banker's early life that matters; the intensity of these crises is a crucial determinant. Specifically, when central bankers have encountered multiple inflation crises during their childhood, political monetary cycles cease to exist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an attempt to diversify itself away from the dominance of oil on its economy, Saudi Arabia needs to emphasize on the growth of its private sector. Currently, the private sector’s contribution to economic growth is meager as the oil sector dominates the economy. This study attempts to assess the role of financial development towards the growth of the private sector. Assessing this relationship is important, as it is quite probable that the dominant oil sector attracts the financial resources, affecting the private sector adversely. Johansen’s method of cointegration is applied on the data for the period 1985–2018. The private sector’s gross domestic product has a negative relation with the supply of money, positive relation with bank credit to private sector, and no significant relationship with share market capitalization, as shown by the results of the study. In addition, the private sector’s growth has a positive and significant relationship with government expenditure, investment, and trade openness. Hence, the study recommends further strengthening of financial sector services. Besides the current trend on government expenditure, investment and trade openness should continue to enable the private sector to contribute significantly to the economic growth of the country. A previous study on the private sector’s growth and financial variables is exclusively missing, and makes this study unique.