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Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) have the potential to remove much of the liquid water in climatically important mid- to high-latitude shallow supercooled clouds, markedly reducing their albedo. The INP sources at these latitudes are very poorly defined, but it is known that there are substantial dust sources across the high latitudes, such as Iceland. Here, we show that Icelandic dust emissions are sporadically an important source of INPs at mid to high latitudes by combining ice-nucleating active site density measurements of aircraft-collected Icelandic dust samples with a global aerosol model. Because Iceland is only one of many high-latitude dust sources, we anticipate that the combined effect of all these sources may strongly contribute to the INP population in the mid- and high-latitude northern hemisphere. This is important because these emissions are directly relevant for the cloud-phase climate feedback and because high-latitude dust emissions are expected to increase in a warmer climate. ISSN:2375-2548

It has been hypothesized that black carbon (BC) influences mixed‐phase clouds by acting as an ice‐nucleating particle (INP). However, the literature data for ice nucleation by BC immersed in supercooled water are extremely varied, with some studies reporting that BC is very effective at nucleating ice, whereas others report no ice‐nucleating ability. Here we present new experimental results for immersion mode ice nucleation by BC from two contrasting fuels (n‐decane and eugenol). We observe no significant heterogeneous nucleation by either sample. Using a global aerosol model, we quantify the maximum relative importance of BC for ice nucleation when compared with K‐feldspar and marine organic aerosol acting as INP. Based on the upper limit from our laboratory data, we show that BC contributes at least several orders of magnitude less INP than feldspar and marine organic aerosol. Representations of its atmospheric ice‐nucleating ability based on older laboratory data produce unrealistic results when compared against ambient observations of INP. Since BC is a complex material, it cannot be unambiguously ruled out as an important INP species in all locations at all times. Therefore, we use our model to estimate a range of values for the density of active sites that BC particles must have to be relevant for ice nucleation in the atmosphere. The estimated values will guide future work on BC, defining the required sensitivity of future experimental studies.

Aerosols and their effect on the radiative properties of clouds are one of the largest sources of uncertainty in calculations of the Earth's energy budget. Here the sensitivity of aerosol-cloud albedo effect forcing to 31 aerosol parameters is quantified. Sensitivities are compared over three periods; 1850-2008, 1978-2008, and 1998-2008. Despite declining global anthropogenic SO2 emissions during 1978-2008, a cancelation of regional positive and negative forcings leads to a near-zero global mean cloud albedo effect forcing. In contrast to existing negative estimates, our results suggest that the aerosol-cloud albedo effect was likely positive (0.006 to 0.028Wm-2) in the recent decade, making it harder to explain the temperature hiatus as a forced response. Proportional contributions to forcing variance from aerosol processes and natural and anthropogenic emissions are found to be period dependent. To better constrain forcing estimates, the processes that dominate uncertainty on the timescale of interest must be better understood. Key Points Forcing sensitivity to aerosol parameters is strongly period dependentUnderstanding near-future climate is limited if a single period is consideredIn recent decades, parametric uncertainty is smaller than model diversity

The retreat of Arctic sea ice has led to renewed calls to exploit Arctic shipping routes. The diversion of ship traffic through the Arctic will shorten shipping routes and possibly reduce global shipping emissions. However, deposition of black carbon (BC) aerosol emitted by additional Arctic ships could cause a reduction in the albedo of snow and ice, accelerating snowmelt and sea ice loss. Here we use recently compiled Arctic shipping emission inventories for 2004 and 2050 together with a global aerosol model to quantify the contribution of future Arctic shipping to high-latitude BC deposition. Our results show that Arctic shipping in 2050 will contribute less than 1% to the total BC deposition north of 60°N due to the much greater relative contribution of BC transported from non-shipping sources at lower latitudes. We suggest that regulation of the Arctic shipping industry will be an insufficient control on high-latitude BC deposition.