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Objective: Content in Iran's cyber space is one of the most challenging policy issues in this area, and different and sometimes contradictory approaches have been proposed regarding the way to deal with this phenomenon. In a situation where the speed of cyberspace developments is so high that there is no consensus on a single issue yet, new issues arrive one after the other, futures studies for the internet content policy through knowing the paths ahead and making proactive decisions to prepare for the future is a policy necessity. Methods: This article uses delphi, future wheels and backcasting methods for futures studies. First, the desired future of the content in Iranian cyberspace was identified with the participation of 32 experts through the Delphi method. The future wheel method was then used to determine the main axes to reach the desired future to provide the basis for backcasting. Backcasting is preparing the mind for future images as a basis for decisions. In this approach, unlike forecasting, instead of looking from the present to the future, we look from the future to the present time, and with the image of the desired situation, which is fundamentally different from the current situation, the base for transformation is provided. Results: After determining the desired future, the most important axes that need special attention to realize the desired future were identified: the position of governance among content production and distribution players, the balance of power among content production and distribution players, the circulation of content in cyber space whithout restrictions and capabilities of content monetization. The target time horizon of this research is 2025, and in the framework of backcasting, steps are proposed to realize the desired future. Conclusions: For each of the four axes, time is broken into four steps. These desirable situations have a staggered relationship that the occurrence of any distant future first requires the occurrence of the nearer future. In general, it can be said that reaching the desired future in the field of cyberspace content in Iran can be achieved to a large extent by using the futures studies approach in policy making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Reconstructing past ecological population dynamics and demographic events is crucial for understanding the dynamics of ecological processes, evaluating the impact of environmental changes and making informed conservation decisions. In forest ecosystems, retrodiction (i.e. the backward projection of ecological populations) plays a pivotal role in understanding historical forest carbon levels and the factors that have influenced their variation over time, because forest demography is a major determinant of the amount of carbon stored in forest ecosystems. The persistent lack of quantitative methods has been a significant obstacle in retrodicting forest demography, especially in applications of a broad geographical scale. While there is a wealth of models for predicting future forest conditions, models that can project these conditions backward in time are scarce. This study presents reverse matrix model (RMM), an innovative retrodiction modelling approach grounded in the principles of transition matrix models. RMM is designed to deduce past demographic characteristics of ecological populations using current data, making it one of the first models capable of projecting the fine‐scale dynamics of forest demography into the past. We assessed the retrodictive performance of RMM by fitting it to a dataset of a disturbed tropical rainforest in French Guiana in 2001–2023, then comparing the retrodictions to observations back to 1983 when the disturbance occurred. We further empirically evaluated the viability of retrodiction over a defined duration by inverting the density‐dependent matrix model by Lin et al. (1996), which predicts the dynamics of northern hardwoods in the United States. The case studies demonstrate significant potential for RMM application in various domains of forestry and conservation, including ecosystem management and conservation planning, global change impact assessment and biodiversity monitoring.

Reconstructing past ecological population dynamics and demographic events is crucial for understanding the dynamics of ecological processes, evaluating the impact of environmental changes and making informed conservation decisions. In forest ecosystems, retrodiction (i.e. the backward projection of ecological populations) plays a pivotal role in understanding historical forest carbon levels and the factors that have influenced their variation over time, because forest demography is a major determinant of the amount of carbon stored in forest ecosystems. The persistent lack of quantitative methods has been a significant obstacle in retrodicting forest demography, especially in applications of a broad geographical scale. While there is a wealth of models for predicting future forest conditions, models that can project these conditions backward in time are scarce.This study presents reverse matrix model (RMM), an innovative retrodiction modelling approach grounded in the principles of transition matrix models. RMM is designed to deduce past demographic characteristics of ecological populations using current data, making it one of the first models capable of projecting the fine‐scale dynamics of forest demography into the past.We assessed the retrodictive performance of RMM by fitting it to a dataset of a disturbed tropical rainforest in French Guiana in 2001–2023, then comparing the retrodictions to observations back to 1983 when the disturbance occurred. We further empirically evaluated the viability of retrodiction over a defined duration by inverting the density‐dependent matrix model by Lin et al. (1996), which predicts the dynamics of northern hardwoods in the United States.The case studies demonstrate significant potential for RMM application in various domains of forestry and conservation, including ecosystem management and conservation planning, global change impact assessment and biodiversity monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The introduction of autonomous vehicles (AVs) has the potential to drastically change society, planning, design, and development strategies. This study uses the PRISMA protocol to carry out a systematic literature review, focusing on the backcasting method as an analytic tool. By examining. 21 studies published between 2003 and 2024, this paper highlights the phases of backcasting: visioning, policy packaging, and appraisal, and identifies critical factors necessary for the successful integration of AVs. Visioning for future driverless cities includes high-quality urban areas, active mobility, and innovative developments. Policies and Packaging suggested a focus on restricting vehicular access, transit-oriented development, and encouraging public transportation. Appraisal reveals skepticism about the positive impacts of AVs, urging policies that limit access to urban areas and promote sustainable modes of transportation. The main contribution of this study lies in its comprehensive application of backcasting to AV implementation, offering a structured approach to envisioning future urban scenarios, formulating supportive policies, and evaluating their impact. This analysis provides a solid foundation for future research, urging us to explore the intersection between AVs, citizen participation, and environmental sustainability to achieve more efficient and sustainable cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a clear and urgent call to transform our food systems as a critical nexus to tackle ongoing global climate, biodiversity, equity, and nutrition crises. Many food and agricultural innovations are being developed and scaled but these innovations often target sector-specific problems and remain disconnected from the more complex demand for transformative change at scale. To bridge this demand for systemic change within the innovation ecosystem, initiatives are applying various approaches such as visioning, holistic assessments, innovation portfolio management and multistakeholder co-creation. Here we report on insights from applying a food systems tailored backcasting approach in a diversity of settings since 2021, including a national food system dialogue, a youth business innovation challenge, a landscape multi-stakeholder platform, a public-private sector co-learning session, an agroecological transitions program, and a hybrid food systems university course for graduate students and global professionals. We thereby build on existing literature and case studies of how change happens (or does not happen) and aim to use those insights to support food systems change makers. Across these settings, the backcasting approach asks participants to connect innovations with broader systems-change visions, to anticipate tradeoffs for multiple food system outcomes and population groups, and to cross sectoral boundaries. The use cases demonstrate that the backcasting process contributes to changes in views, practices and structures that participants work with. Specifically, it supports moving beyond "silver bullet" innovation approaches, the bundling of social and technical innovations, and building action-oriented cross-sectoral bridges. Food systems change is complex and innovations alone are insufficient to address its complexity. But innovations can play a positive role if connected to more holistic systems-change processes and goals. Considering strengths and limitations of the backcasting approach, the diversity of practical applications supports its potential to connect innovations to holistic food systems visions, to strengthen cross-sectoral collaboration and to bundle social and technical innovations for desirable food systems change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under persistent eutrophication of European water bodies and a changing climate, there is an increasing need to evaluate best‐management practices for reducing nutrient losses from agricultural catchments. In this study, we set up a daily discharge and water quality model in Hydrological Predictions of the Environment for two agricultural catchments representative for common cropping systems in Europe's humid continental regions to forecast the impacts of future climate trajectories on nutrient loads. The model predicted a slight increase in inorganic nitrogen (IN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads under RCP2.6, likely due to precipitation‐driven mobilization. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the IN loads were forecasted to decrease from 16% to 26% and 21%–50% respectively, most likely due to temperature‐driven increases in crop uptake and evapotranspiration. No distinct trends in TP loads were observed. A 50% decrease in nutrient loads, as targeted by the European Green Deal, was backcasted using a combination of management scenarios, including (a) a 20% reduction in mineral fertilizer application, (b) introducing cover crops (CC), and (c) stream mitigation (SM) by introducing floodplains. Target TP load reductions could only be achieved by SM, which likely results from secondary mobilization of sources within agricultural streams during high discharge events. Target IN load reductions were backcasted with a combination of SM, fertilizer reduction, and CC, wherein the required measures depended strongly on the climatic trajectory. Overall, this study successfully demonstrated a modeling approach for evaluating best‐management practices under diverging climate change trajectories, tailored to the catchment characteristics and specific nutrient reduction targets. Plain Language Summary: The European Union has set a target to reduce nutrient losses from agricultural areas by 50% by 2030 to improve the quality of its water bodies. However, we argue that climate change will have a strong impact on nutrient dynamics, implying that the required management actions for improving water quality need to adapt depending on the climate trajectory. In this study, we simulated the future losses of two major nutrients, inorganic nitrogen (IN) and total phosphorus (TP), for two Swedish agricultural streams representative of major crop‐growing regions. We also modeled best management practices to reach the targeted 50% reduction in nutrient losses. The model predicted that IN loads will decrease under moderate and severe climate change pathways, but increase under the mild climate change pathway. We found that targeted reductions in TP loads could only be achieved through SM. Targeted reductions in IN loads could be achieved by combining SM with a 20% reduction in mineral fertilizer and/or protecting the soil with cover crops (CC) in winter. This study demonstrated how to apply water quality models for identifying the required management actions to reduce future nutrient losses from agricultural catchments. Key Points: Inorganic nitrogen (IN) loads were forecasted to decrease under future climate change, while no distinct trends in total phosphorus (TP) were observedTarget reductions in TP loads rely on more widespread implementation of stream mitigation (SM) to tackle secondary pollution sourcesTarget reductions in IN loads can be achieved by combining SM with fertilizer reductions and/or cover crops [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Insights into the waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) management. • Developed a generic system dynamics model simulating the stock and flow of WEEE. • Applied the model to eleven WEEE categories in the United Kingdom. • Sensitivity and backcasting scenario analyses of landfilled WEEE targets. • Identified enhancing collection rates as the best way to reduce landfilled WEEE. Every year an estimated two million tonnes of waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) are discarded by householders and companies in the United Kingdom (UK). While the UK has left the European Union (EU), its waste-related policies still mirror those of the EU, including the WEEE-related policies. Motivated by the recent introduction the so-called 'Right to Repair' policy for electrical and electronic equipment (EEE) across the EU and UK, this paper aims to demonstrate that, depending on the commitment and behavioural changes by the consumers and the government, the future of the WEEE management of the UK will vary. To this end, focusing on landfilled WEEE reduction we develop a generic system dynamics model and apply it to eleven WEEE categories. They depict the flow of EEE and WEEE representing the interaction among the stakeholders (e.g., consumers and producers of EEE) and relevant government regulations of the UK. Our four scenario analyses find that longer use of EEE and better WEEE collection seem to be effective in reducing landfilled WEEE, while more reuse and more recycling and recovery have negligible impacts, despite excluding the additional generation of landfilled WEEE as a result of recycling and recovery. Comparing with the business-as-usual scenario, one year longer EEE use and 10% more of WEEE collection could at maximum reduce landfilled WEEE by 14.05% of monitoring and control instruments and 93.93% of display equipment respectively. Backcasting scenario analyses reveal that significant efforts are required to reduce the targeted amounts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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There is a clear and urgent call to transform our food systems as a critical nexus to tackle ongoing global climate, biodiversity, equity, and nutrition crises. Many food and agricultural innovations are being developed and scaled but these innovations often target sector-specific problems and remain disconnected from the more complex demand for transformative change at scale. To bridge this demand for systemic change within the innovation ecosystem, initiatives are applying various approaches such as visioning, holistic assessments, innovation portfolio management and multistakeholder co-creation. Here we report on insights from applying a food systems tailored backcasting approach in a diversity of settings since 2021, including a national food system dialogue, a youth business innovation challenge, a landscape multi-stakeholder platform, a public-private sector co-learning session, an agroecological transitions program, and a hybrid food systems university course for graduate students and global professionals. We thereby build on existing literature and case studies of how change happens (or does not happen) and aim to use those insights to support food systems change makers. Across these settings, the backcasting approach asks participants to connect innovations with broader systems-change visions, to anticipate tradeoffs for multiple food system outcomes and population groups, and to cross sectoral boundaries. The use cases demonstrate that the backcasting process contributes to changes in views, practices and structures that participants work with. Specifically, it supports moving beyond “silver bullet” innovation approaches, the bundling of social and technical innovations, and building action-oriented cross-sectoral bridges. Food systems change is complex and innovations alone are insufficient to address its complexity. But innovations can play a positive role if connected to more holistic systems-change processes and goals. Considering strengths and limitations of the backcasting approach, the diversity of practical applications supports its potential to connect innovations to holistic food systems visions, to strengthen cross-sectoral collaboration and to bundle social and technical innovations for desirable food systems change.

Abstract Under persistent eutrophication of European water bodies and a changing climate, there is an increasing need to evaluate best‐management practices for reducing nutrient losses from agricultural catchments. In this study, we set up a daily discharge and water quality model in Hydrological Predictions of the Environment for two agricultural catchments representative for common cropping systems in Europe's humid continental regions to forecast the impacts of future climate trajectories on nutrient loads. The model predicted a slight increase in inorganic nitrogen (IN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads under RCP2.6, likely due to precipitation‐driven mobilization. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the IN loads were forecasted to decrease from 16% to 26% and 21%–50% respectively, most likely due to temperature‐driven increases in crop uptake and evapotranspiration. No distinct trends in TP loads were observed. A 50% decrease in nutrient loads, as targeted by the European Green Deal, was backcasted using a combination of management scenarios, including (a) a 20% reduction in mineral fertilizer application, (b) introducing cover crops (CC), and (c) stream mitigation (SM) by introducing floodplains. Target TP load reductions could only be achieved by SM, which likely results from secondary mobilization of sources within agricultural streams during high discharge events. Target IN load reductions were backcasted with a combination of SM, fertilizer reduction, and CC, wherein the required measures depended strongly on the climatic trajectory. Overall, this study successfully demonstrated a modeling approach for evaluating best‐management practices under diverging climate change trajectories, tailored to the catchment characteristics and specific nutrient reduction targets.

Passenger cars contribute considerably to total emissions of greenhouse gasses. In this article, we develop scenarios for the Swedish passenger car fleet in 2030, achieving a 70% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions as compared to 2010. The number of shared and electric cars, how they are combined, and levels of biofuel use differ between the scenarios. Transport volumes, car access, battery use, indirect emissions, and fleet development are evaluated and compared. Conclusions based on the scenarios include: Target-fulfillment requires a reduction in kilometers traveled by passenger cars. The reductions are 21%–47% per capita in six scenarios. Major changes to both removal rate and new car sales are needed, highlighting a policy challenge for the coming decade. Total battery capacity in the vehicle fleet increase from 1 GWh 2018 to 73–168 GWh in the six scenarios. This implies a need for careful consideration regarding resource scarcity and production capacity. A new metric, vehicle kilometers/(kWh*year), is developed and tested to explore efficiency in battery use. Reducing direct emissions through a high production of electric cars causes tensions in relation to the European Emissions Trading System due to the indirect emissions that arise. It is therefore important to consider indirect emissions in policymaking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Encouraging designers to think about the precedents and consequences of their designs is integral to generating a design ethic that respects both our past and future generations (see Escobar, 'Sustainability: Design for the pluriverse', 2011, and Fry, Design Futuring, 2009). Situating designs as interventions in time also clearly acknowledges our growing responsibilities as designers in the age of the Anthropocene. The visualization of these relationships serves not only the designer engaged in the research, but those from other disciplines seeking to understand what historical or sociopolitical contexts may have informed a particular design innovation at a particular moment in time. In this reflective practitioner piece, the author presents design timescapes, a novel visual thinking tool that not only challenges designers to visualize the relationships between design and societal shifts but encourages the development of visual argumentation for design proposals. This approach is also useful in introducing the concept of design futuring to students/designers unfamiliar with this emergent field. To illustrate the various manifestations of this tool, she shares examples of where she has applied design timescapes as part of her futuring practice, and as a pedagogical tool. She concludes by offering suggestions for how this tool, in combination with emerging design futuring practice, contributes to the expansion of the resources of visual communication, design practice, research, and education. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role and impact of businesses in transition processes depend on the strategic positioning of firms regarding long‐term sustainability goals. Even though businesses are key actors for transition processes, the literature still lacks an extensive exploration of operational guidelines to support organisations in navigating the complexities of wider sustainability transitions. In this study, contributions from sustainability transitions research to the study of strategic planning processes in a business context were explored to address this gap. A procedure was developed to guide organisations towards development of sustainability transition strategies, which was further tested in a case study from the Portuguese tourism sector. The proposed approach builds on the transition management framework and a set of transversal sustainability elements: a holistic view of sustainability, long‐term thinking, stakeholder involvement and innovation. The testing of the proposed procedure resulted on the co‐creation of a sustainability transition strategy in a hotel which highlighted the need for participatory and long‐term oriented approaches to support businesses in their transformation processes. Improvement opportunities were identified regarding external stakeholder involvement and the integration of innovation elements while co‐creating organisational sustainability transition strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Significant emission reductions are needed in the transport sector to reach climate change mitigation objectives. Backcasting, a type of scenario-analysis approach, is a useful tool for the analysis of possible alternative transport futures and strategies to arrive at these futures when the business-as-usual projection is no longer sustainable. The backcasting approach consists of establishing desirable futures and examining the pathways by which those futures can be reached. This paper focuses on the policy packaging phase of a transport backcasting study carried out in the context of Malta as a case study. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the existing literature on transport and climate change using the case of Malta, which presents a context of high dependency on private cars and difficulty in transitioning to sustainable mobility. This paper tests the usefulness of a practice-based approach to transport backcasting. The results of this backcasting framework are a set of climate policies that target different elements of mobility practices and suggest that interventions for sustainable mobility should go beyond transport and target other spheres of social life. Collaboration between stakeholders and participation of citizens during the backcasting process was key to making the policy design process more participatory. Results of this study show how new approaches can open possibilities for a transition towards more sustainable mobility and contribute to widening the knowledge in the field of transport backcasting studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The introduction of autonomous vehicles (AVs) has the potential to drastically change society, planning, design, and development strategies. This study uses the PRISMA protocol to carry out a systematic literature review, focusing on the backcasting method as an analytic tool. By examining. 21 studies published between 2003 and 2024, this paper highlights the phases of backcasting: visioning, policy packaging, and appraisal, and identifies critical factors necessary for the successful integration of AVs. Visioning for future driverless cities includes high-quality urban areas, active mobility, and innovative developments. Policies and Packaging suggested a focus on restricting vehicular access, transit-oriented development, and encouraging public transportation. Appraisal reveals skepticism about the positive impacts of AVs, urging policies that limit access to urban areas and promote sustainable modes of transportation. The main contribution of this study lies in its comprehensive application of backcasting to AV implementation, offering a structured approach to envisioning future urban scenarios, formulating supportive policies, and evaluating their impact. This analysis provides a solid foundation for future research, urging us to explore the intersection between AVs, citizen participation, and environmental sustainability to achieve more efficient and sustainable cities.

This study explores micromobility's role in advancing Vienna's sustainability goals through backcasting. It examines how increasing urbanization and private vehicle use contribute to rising energy consumption and CO2 emissions. The study highlights micromobility, including lightweight vehicles, as a key solution for reducing car trips and achieving sustainable transport. Challenges, such as slow electric vehicle adoption and the need for decarbonization, complicate this transition. The findings emphasize the importance of adaptable policies to fully leverage micromobility's potential for a greener Vienna by 2040, offering valuable insights for global urban planners and policymakers.

Young people are key stakeholders in the future, but their stake is rarely considered in decision making and policy development. In this paper we explore how climate change education can allow the voices of young people to be listened to and help young people imagine desirable futures and develop agency to address the steps, both personal and policy based, that are needed to achieve this. Initially reporting on the findings of a survey of 985 young people (aged 7–18 years from across the UK), we explore what young people currently know about climate change. Informed by this data, we then present a creative approach to backcasting, using a participatory action pedagogical approach to explore the desired futures that 150 young people aged 8–11 years have about the fast fashion industry. We suggest that within the context of fast fashion and other climate related industries, such a methodology could enable educators to address climate change without provoking eco-anxiety and provide a way that decision makers in industry and government can listen to young people's voices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Backcasting is a normative, target-oriented, and problem-solving approach, focusing on the desirable future vision and looking back for how to achieve it. Despite the growing global attention to backcasting and its efficiency in various fields, this approach has not been considered in urban planning and facing the complex issues and evolvements of the city in Iran. Therefore, this article uses the backcasting approach to develop a roadmap for Tehran’s vision. The presumption of this study from the desirable future vision is the same as that compiled in Tehran’s Strategic-Structural (Comprehensive) Plan. Thus, it indicates applying expert-based backcasting by stepping back from Tehran’s desirable future vision on the horizon of 2026 to the origin of the current situation in 2006. The ideals of the development perspective in the seven pillars have been scrutinized as the desirable future vision. Studying the current situation has been done by the qualitative content analysis of the document of Tehran’s Comprehensive Plan. Then, the roadmap was followed by defining key steps and targets, essentially placed in three distinct categories. Accordingly, Tehran’s desirable future vision will be realized through the pathway of three short visions, including “Tehran is aware of its existential nature with comprehensive knowledge about facilities and limitations for consolidation and modification,” “Tehran is the capacity builder for infrastructure and facility services, socially and organizationally capable, and prepared to all-round development,” and “Tehran is a prosperous and sustainable regarding cohesion and resilience, wealthy concerning the quality of life, and influential on a transnational level.” [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Many landscapes in sub‐Saharan Africa have undergone rapid changes, often with negative social and ecological impacts. Avoiding (or reversing) such negative impacts requires proactive landscape planning. Scenario planning, a participatory approach that generates narratives of plausible landscape change trajectories in the future, has been widely used to support landscape planning and decisions. However, not least because of challenges arising from group dynamics, few examples exist where backcasting—the collective envisioning of a desirable future landscape and the identification of pathways to reach that future—has been applied in landscape planning. In this study, building on past scenario planning work in southwestern Ethiopia, we begin to fill this empirical and methodological gap. Specifically, we used the Q‐methodology to elucidate stakeholders' divergent landscape aspirations in a case study in southwestern Ethiopia. Our results show that many stakeholders share a similar vision of building a future landscape that supports smallholder‐based development. However, details in the envisaged pathways differ between stakeholders. Three distinct pathways were prioritized by different stakeholders: (1) Agroecological production, (2) Coffee investment and (3) Intensive food crop production. Accounting for these divergent aspirations is important when taking further steps in landscape planning. We show how using the Q‐methodology as a subjective assessment of stakeholders' landscape priorities can facilitate the integration of backcasting within the normative process of landscape planning. Our approach thus helps navigate conflicting stakeholders' preferences and based on that, carefully plan collective action towards a shared landscape vision. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Participatory scenario planning is a powerful approach to guide diverse stakeholders in creating and reflecting on visions of plausible and desired futures. However, this process requires tools to guide collective action to implement such visions within management agendas. This study develops, applies, and analyzes a novel visual tool within a virtual participatory scenario planning process about the Sierra de Guadarrama National Park (Madrid, Spain). Building on the identification of stakeholders who might engage in scenario strategies, the visual tool guided them in defining tasks to be developed and envisioning their willingness to collaborate in their implementation. We qualitatively analyzed data from recordings, online field observations, a post-survey from the scenario planning process, and a successive policy workshop. Our findings show that the visual tool fosters dialogue between stakeholders to redistribute tasks for working together on needed strategies in the protected area while promoting reflection on their willingness to collaborate as a group to implement them. The visual tool provided graphic outcomes for nine strategies corresponding to pictures of who may or may not be willing to engage in implementing such strategies. We argue that the visual tool is a robust method that can complement participatory scenario planning processes by providing a useful starting point for creating action networks to incorporate the resulting scenario strategies into management agendas. We deliberate on the nature of the visual tool as a boundary object and discuss its role as a decision-support tool. In particular, we reflect on the potential contributions and limitations of the visual tool to four dimensions of participatory conservation governance during participatory scenario planning processes: inclusivity, integration, adaptation, and pluralism. Our study provides a practical orientation to adapt the tool to other contexts and knowledge co-creation processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evapotranspiration (ET) is the largest component of the water budget, accounting for the majority of the water available from precipitation. ET is challenging to quantify because of the uncertainties associated with the many ET equations currently in use, and because observations of ET are uncertain and sparse. In this study, we combine information provided by available ET data and equations to produce a new monthly data set for ET for the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). These maps are produced from 1895 to 2018 at an 800 m spatial scale, marking a finer resolution than currently available products over this time period. In our approach, the relative performance of a suite of ET equations is assessed using water balance, flux tower, and remotely sensed ET estimates. At the observation locations, we use error distributions to quantify relative weights for the equations and use these in a modified Bayesian model averaging weighted ensemble approach. The relative weights are spatially generalized using a random forest regression, which is applied to wall‐to‐wall explanatory variable maps to generate CONUS‐wide relative weight maps and ensemble estimates. We assess the performance of the ensemble using a reserved subset of the observations and compare this performance against other national‐scale map products for historical to modern ET. The ensemble ET maps are shown to provide an improved accuracy over the alternative comparison products. These ET maps could be useful for a variety of hydrologic modeling and assessment applications that benefit from a long record, such as the study of periods of water scarcity through time. Plain Language Summary: In the water cycle, most of the rain either evaporates or is converted to water vapor by plants. This combined amount of water is termed evapotranspiration (ET). Water resource managers need to be able to estimate ET to ensure that plants have adequate water supply, and to improve our understanding of the water remaining to replenish streams or groundwater. However, estimating ET over large areas and long time periods is a challenge. There are many simplified ET equations based on meteorological inputs that can be used, but each can give significantly different results. In this work, we use three national‐scale ET data sets to assess the performance of several equations and evaluate how performance depends on variables such as land cover type. We combine the strengths of different equations by producing an ensemble estimate where equations that perform better in a certain type of setting are weighted more heavily in those areas. We produce monthly ensemble ET maps for 1895–2018 at 800 m resolution, a finer spatial resolution and longer timespan than currently available. We find these maps provide an improvement in performance relative to six currently available products, and may be useful for water resource models and assessments. Key Points: Performance of several equations for actual evapotranspiration is evaluated against three national scale observational data setsRelative performance, Bayesian model averaging, and a random forest are used to produce monthly weighted ensemble evapotranspiration mapsThese evapotranspiration maps provide improved timespan, spatial resolution, and accuracy relative to several currently available products [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many landscapes in sub‐Saharan Africa have undergone rapid changes, often with negative social and ecological impacts. Avoiding (or reversing) such negative impacts requires proactive landscape planning. Scenario planning, a participatory approach that generates narratives of plausible landscape change trajectories in the future, has been widely used to support landscape planning and decisions. However, not least because of challenges arising from group dynamics, few examples exist where backcasting—the collective envisioning of a desirable future landscape and the identification of pathways to reach that future—has been applied in landscape planning.In this study, building on past scenario planning work in southwestern Ethiopia, we begin to fill this empirical and methodological gap. Specifically, we used the Q‐methodology to elucidate stakeholders' divergent landscape aspirations in a case study in southwestern Ethiopia.Our results show that many stakeholders share a similar vision of building a future landscape that supports smallholder‐based development. However, details in the envisaged pathways differ between stakeholders. Three distinct pathways were prioritized by different stakeholders: (1) Agroecological production, (2) Coffee investment and (3) Intensive food crop production. Accounting for these divergent aspirations is important when taking further steps in landscape planning.We show how using the Q‐methodology as a subjective assessment of stakeholders' landscape priorities can facilitate the integration of backcasting within the normative process of landscape planning. Our approach thus helps navigate conflicting stakeholders' preferences and based on that, carefully plan collective action towards a shared landscape vision. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article proposes a theoretical framework for the application of four scenario-planning approaches in strategic land-use and transportation (LUT) planning, focusing on city-regions. Each approach has a specific role in the process, with a distinct mode of knowing: explanation (knowing what), narration (knowing how), argumentation (knowing to what end and practical judgment) and instrumentalization (doing). The framework is contrasted with reflections from Finnish planning practitioners and applied when reviewing the scenario and impact assessment process of the Helsinki Metropolitan Region strategic LUT plan. The article highlights the key role of explorative scenario planning in strategic city-regional LUT planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transformative changes are needed in the transport sector to limit global warming. Radical transport disruptions experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, such as greater Working from Home (WFH) and active travel, present a unique opportunity to reimagine more sustainable transport systems. The aim of the current study was to develop a 2050 transport vision and identify short term priorities for Melbourne (Australia) based on in-depth stakeholder interviews. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first backcasting study since COVID-19. As the city with the 'longest lockdown', Melbourne has valuable lessons for the rest of the world. Overall, participants reported that they were uncertain about the future of the central business district. Participants envisaged that the transport system would be carbon-neutral or carbon-positive. However, private motor vehicles (including electric and automated) were not considered the solution for handling the scale of trips anticipated with the projected population size. Instead, participants perceived that in Melbourne by 2050, there will be less work-related travel due to greater job flexibility and WFH. More localised neighbourhood living (20-minute cities), with most short trips undertaken by active travel, and longer trips by public transport. Furthermore, it was projected that regional centres will grow and the transport system will be for the whole state of Victoria and not just Melbourne. Finally, the study identified short term (2021–2030) travel behaviour priorities and eight immediate actions, including: urban design focusing on inspiring active travel; reallocating road space to prioritise active and public transport modes; planning for micromobility urban freight; improving public transport services; expanding public transport networks; installing electric vehicle charging infrastructure; supporting WFH to encourage trip avoidance; and encouraging political consensus when building major transport projects. • A transport vision and immediate actions for Metropolitan Melbourne (Australia). • Private motor vehicles are not the solution for the scale of trips anticipated. • Local living with short trips by active travel and longer trips by public transport. • Less work-related travel with greater job flexibility and working from home. • Regional centres will grow, and the transport system will be for the whole state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This report documents and analyzes the results of a 180-minute online participatory futures workshop on the futures of Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) in 2031 that took place on Thursday, 25th November 2021. The objectives of the workshop were to engage global health experts in creating possible, probable, and preferred futures of non-communicable diseases. Using the Six Pillars Approach to futures, participants identified emerging issues, and created alternative scenarios, as well as an action plan to achieve the preferred future. As a result of the workshop, participants recognized that business-as-usual futures could be catastrophic for economic, health and human systems; that long-term strategies and policies to address NCDs must embrace equity from the outset, must be judged on planetary as well as human impact, and proactively pay attention to emerging issues. Finally, partnerships would be absolutely essential if we are to save lives and rid societies of NCDs. This paper features images from an animated video produced following the workshop envisioning a world in 2040 in which NCDs have been eradicated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Many local authorities are preparing climate actions plans. • Policies to increase distributed energy generation such as PV are likely. • As capacities increase, PV can dominate system variability and predictability. • Predictive demand side response (DSR) may be too coarse to address this. • More granular techniques such as using system frequency may be required. Since 2018, over three quarters of UK local governments have signed climate emergency declarations signalling a new phase in local climate action. Many areas are developing climate action plans and considering what policies could be adopted to increase the use of distributed energy resources, such as building-integrated photo-voltaic (PV) generation. In this paper we demonstrate how city-scale backcasting can be used as a tool to go beyond technical feasibility and explore the policy, market and governance implications of decarbonisation pathways across the local and nation scales. Using urban PV as an example we model three scenarios for increasing installed capacity in the UK city of Bristol and demonstrate how, in each case, PV switches from being a minor 'negative load' on the energy system to being the dominant factor determining the volatility and predictability of the energy demand during daylight hours. Current approaches to integrating distributed energy resources into the wider system tend to focus on predictive modelling and half-hourly pricing to drive demand-side response. Our analysis indicates the risks of relying on these non-real time methods and suggests that more granular techniques such as triggering local DSR based on changes in electricity system frequency could better manage the variability of high levels of PV deployment at the local scale. We also demonstrate the importance of developing new local approaches to system integration that bring together network operators, local authorities and other local actors to deploy renewable generation and flexibility assets in coordination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2020–2022 period of the global COVID-19 pandemic exposed the fact that many countries health systems had inadequate health workforce availability. This is despite sustainable health workforces being critical to health service and healthcare delivery, an acknowledgement that drove the significant investment and focus on health workforce development over the previous two decades. As such, this review article discusses health workforce governance and planning, notes its weaknesses, and identifies some of the barriers to the implementation of health workforce policy making and planning and the achievement of sustainable health workforces. Important is the recognition that health workforce planning is long-term in nature, while health workforce decision-making processes are dominated by political processes that have much shorter time frames. The article concludes by offering the approach of backcasting to overcome this dichotomy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Resilience emphasizes the recovery capability of a firm after an event of disruption. This paper proposes a framework in constructing a knowledge warehouse (KW) to increase a semiconductor assembly and testing firm’s resilience by using a backcasting approach, which consists of four steps to form the development cycles. In each cycle, the goal for moving towards resilience is set up. The second step is to identify the baseline problems. Several potential paths to reach the goal from the baseline are then analyzed. Finally, a proper path supporting the performance of specific activities (plan) is selected and further added to the KW. Therefore, any possible conflict caused from bringing in new knowledge to the existing KW should be examined and resolved. The KW is augmented through cycles. Two case studies (Earthquake and typhoon disruptions) are used to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework. Furthermore, discussions also refer to how Nissan and Renesas responded to a 9.0 earthquake in 2011 and to a world-class major provider of semiconductor assembly and testing services in developing its KW. At the end, several recommendations have been made for firms to prepare for resilience. Some related future research topics are also proposed.

Seaports (hereafter “ports”) within the European Union are facing increasingly restrictive regulation in the near future from various sources driven by climate change prevention and public opinion supporting “green” values. Ports are complex hubs for maritime transportation systems and global supply chains, as well as an integral part of critical national infrastructures. However, they are also significant individual sources of harmful emissions, and their involvement is crucial to reducing transportation-related environmental impacts. To meet future regulatory requirements, stakeholders will need to find ways to align their policies accordingly and create long-term pathways toward these ambitious targets. The empirical case study presented in this paper among European Port Cluster (EPC) stakeholders distinctly reflects the mounting importance of environmental policies and the need for further preparative measures for meeting future demands. This paper emphasizes the intensified impact of forthcoming regulation on existing business models in the EPC and contributes a foresight-based framework to approaching this issue systematically. The adoption of future-oriented regulation is a non-linear, potentially disruptive, and complex foresight process that requires each stakeholder to formulate their own strategic pathway toward a target-seeking scenario. Changing direction from the status quo toward sustainability also requires a strong commitment beyond mere regulatory compliance.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2021 report has noted the perceived rise in severe weather phenomena such as heat radiations, hurricanes, flooding, and droughts and the rising scientific evidence attributing these events to anthropogenic sources of climate change. Cameroon as a nation is equally exposed to these climate vulnerabilities, and contributing to global climate efforts is imperative. She has earmarked the integration of 25% renewables in its electricity production mix and a 32% emission reduction, all as part of her commitment to global climate action. The fresh commitments coupled with a rapidly growing power demand have paved the way for a revolutionized approach to electricity generation in Cameroon. However, the imminent changes, as well as their implications, remain uncertain. This study explores how these emission reduction targets can be achieved through the adoption of a more sustainable power transition, which provides realistic solutions for emission reduction, escaping high carbon pathways. The assessment of the level at which long-term electricity generation scenarios in Cameroon could be renewable energy intensive was done using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) tool following a backcasting approach. The study noted that there is an implementation gap between earmarked policy ambitions and existing measures. The study recommended several opportunities in aspects, such as suitable share of technologies, administrative reforms, and required adjustments within the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which the government could exploit in the electricity sector to sail across the challenging trade-offs needed to become a sustainable economy in a carbon-constrained world. It equally examines actions that could help close the gap between earmarked policy ambitions and existing pathways and proposes cost-effective methods that were identified as priorities.

In the face of climate change, a major challenge is to inform and guide long-term climate change adaptation planning under deep uncertainty, while aiming at transformative change. Normative futures studies approaches, such as participatory backcasting, visioning and transition management, are increasingly applied, but their potential for climate change adaptation research and practice remains undervalued. This paper aims to advance the potential of backcasting in climate adaptation, by comparing various climate change adaptation studies that have used backcasting or visioning approaches. A framework has been further developed and applied to evaluate 10 cases in Africa, Europe and North America, using four dimensions: (i) inputs and settings; (ii) process and methods (iii) results, and (iv), impact. Our evaluation provides key insights into the use and further development of backcasting for climate adaptation. Key elements to add are advanced system modeling, robust elements, pathway switching and hybrid pathways, enhancing participation of marginal groups, and contributing to impact by facilitating the utilization of results and knowledge in practice and decision making.

In Bosnia and Herzegovina, sustainable development and climate change is increasingly considered as a matter of key strategic importance, especially by local authorities and the academic community. The State development vision is that by 2030 Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) will be a sustainable and progressive 'green economy'. Backcasting approach, having in mind its descriptive character and the problem solving at the very beginning, is much more convenient for solving long-term problems and offering long-term sustainable solutions. Therefore, it is better to consider backcasting as an approach rather than a method. Furthermore, backcasting studies should provide decision--makers and the public in an entirely acceptable and interesting picture of the future of the whole society on which an opinion should be formed for quality decision making. Therefore, the scenarios of the development using the backcasting approach should provide a broad description of the solutions that should be considered for the adoption of final options of different futures. It has been confirmed that the backcasting approach is particularly promising in cases of complex problems, the need for radical changes, in cases where dominant trends are part of the problem and external influences that cannot be sufficiently addressed in the current market. The aim of this article is the identification of the optimal scenario in the selected sectors using the backcasting approach, and their analysis through the Multi--Criteria Decision Modeling (MCDM), by application of DEXi software, to evaluate their acceptability and the possibilities of their use in B&H. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]