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2. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps

Author

Behrens, J. Løvholt, F. Jalayer, F. Lorito, S. Salgado-Gálvez, M.A. Sørensen, M. Abadie, S. Aguirre-Ayerbe, I. Aniel-Quiroga, I. Babeyko, A. Baiguera, M. Basili, R. Belliazzi, S. Grezio, A. Johnson, K. Murphy, S. Paris, R. Rafliana, I. De Risi, R. Rossetto, T. Selva, J. Taroni, M. Del Zoppo, M. Armigliato, A. Bureš, V. Cech, P. Cecioni, C. Christodoulides, P. Davies, G. Dias, F. Bayraktar, H.B. González, M. Gritsevich, M. Guillas, S. Harbitz, C.B. Kânoǧlu, U. Macías, J. Papadopoulos, G.A. Polet, J. Romano, F. Salamon, A. Scala, A. Stepinac, M. Tappin, D.R. Thio, H.K. Tonini, R. Triantafyllou, I. Ulrich, T. Varini, E. Volpe, M. Vyhmeister, E.

Abstract

Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach. © Copyright © 2021 Behrens, Løvholt, Jalayer, Lorito, Salgado-Gálvez, Sørensen, Abadie, Aguirre-Ayerbe, Aniel-Quiroga, Babeyko, Baiguera, Basili, Belliazzi, Grezio, Johnson, Murphy, Paris, Rafliana, De Risi, Rossetto, Selva, Taroni, Del Zoppo, Armigliato, Bureš, Cech, Cecioni, Christodoulides, Davies, Dias, Bayraktar, González, Gritsevich, Guillas, Harbitz, Kânoǧlu, Macías, Papadopoulos, Polet, Romano, Salamon, Scala, Stepinac, Tappin, Thio, Tonini, Triantafyllou, Ulrich, Varini, Volpe and Vyhmeister.

Published
2021

3. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps

Author

Behrens, J., Løvholt, F., Jalayer, F., Lorito, S., Salgado-Gálvez, M. A., Sørensen, M., Abadie, S., Aguirre-Ayerbe, I., Aniel-Quiroga, I., Babeyko, A., Baiguera, M., Basili, R., Belliazzi, S., Grezio, A., Johnson, K., Murphy, S., Paris, R., Rafliana, I., De Risi, R., Rossetto, T., Selva, J., Taroni, M., Del, Zoppo, M., Armigliato, A., Bureš, V., Cech, P., Cecioni, C., Christodoulides, P., Davies, G., Dias, F., Bayraktar, H. B., González, M., Gritsevich, M., Guillas, S., Harbitz, C. B., Kânoǧlu, U., Macías, J., Papadopoulos, G. A., Polet, J., Romano, F., Salamon, A., Scala, A., Stepinac, M., Tappin, D. R., Thio, H. K., Tonini, R., Triantafyllou, I., Ulrich, T., Varini, E., Volpe, M., Vyhmeister, E., Behrens, J., Løvholt, F., Jalayer, F., Lorito, S., Salgado-Gálvez, M. A., Sørensen, M., Abadie, S., Aguirre-Ayerbe, I., Aniel-Quiroga, I., Babeyko, A., Baiguera, M., Basili, R., Belliazzi, S., Grezio, A., Johnson, K., Murphy, S., Paris, R., Rafliana, I., De Risi, R., Rossetto, T., Selva, J., Taroni, M., Del, Zoppo, M., Armigliato, A., Bureš, V., Cech, P., Cecioni, C., Christodoulides, P., Davies, G., Dias, F., Bayraktar, H. B., González, M., Gritsevich, M., Guillas, S., Harbitz, C. B., Kânoǧlu, U., Macías, J., Papadopoulos, G. A., Polet, J., Romano, F., Salamon, A., Scala, A., Stepinac, M., Tappin, D. R., Thio, H. K., Tonini, R., Triantafyllou, I., Ulrich, T., Varini, E., Volpe, M., and Vyhmeister, E.

Abstract

Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach. © Copyright © 2021 Behrens, Løvholt, Jalayer, Lorito, Salgado-Gálvez, Sørensen, Abadie, Aguirre-Ayerbe, Aniel-Quiroga, Babeyko, Baiguera, Basili, Belliazzi, Grezio, Johnson, Murphy, Paris, Rafliana, De Risi, Rossetto, Selva, Taroni, Del Zoppo, Armigliato, Bureš, Cech, Cecioni, Christodoulides, Davies, Dias, Bayraktar, González, Gritsevich, Guillas, Harbitz, Kânoǧlu, Macías, Papadopoulos, Polet, Romano, Salamon, Scala, Stepinac, Tappin, Thio, Tonini, Triantafyllou, Ulrich, Varini, Volpe and Vyhmeister.

Published
2021

10. Tsunami risk communication and management: Contemporary gaps and challenges

Author

Irina Rafliana, Fatemeh Jalayer, Andrea Cerase, Lorenzo Cugliari, Marco Baiguera, Dimitra Salmanidou, Öcal Necmioğlu, Ignacio Aguirre Ayerbe, Stefano Lorito, Stuart Fraser, Finn Løvholt, Andrey Babeyko, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Jacopo Selva, Raffaele De Risi, Mathilde B. Sørensen, Jörn Behrens, Iñigo Aniel-Quiroga, Marta Del Zoppo, Stefano Belliazzi, Ignatius Ryan Pranantyo, Alessandro Amato, Ufuk Hancilar, Universidad de Cantabria, Rafliana, I., Jalayer, F., Cerase, A., Cugliari, L., Baiguera, M., Salmanidou, D., Necmioglu, O., Ayerbe, I. A., Lorito, S., Fraser, S., Lovholt, F., Babeyko, A., Salgado-Galvez, M. A., Selva, J., De Risi, R., Sorensen, M. B., Behrens, J., Aniel-Quiroga, I., Del Zoppo, M., Belliazzi, S., Pranantyo, I. R., Amato, A., and Hancilar, U.

Subjects
Preparedness, Preventive measures, NEAM Region, Geology, Preparedne, Perception, Building and Construction, Preventive measure, Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology, Tsunami risk, Uncertainties, Safety Research
Abstract

Supplementary data: The following is the Supplementary data to this article: Acrobat PDF file (2MB) available at: https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S2212420921007329-mmc1.pdf Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Very large tsunamis are associated with low probabilities of occurrence. In many parts of the world, these events have usually occurred in a distant time in the past. As a result, there is low risk perception and a lack of collective memories, making tsunami risk communication both challenging and complex. Furthermore, immense challenges lie ahead as population and risk exposure continue to increase in coastal areas. Through the last decades, tsunamis have caught coastal populations off-guard, providing evidence of lack of preparedness. Recent tsunamis, such as the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004, 2011 Tohoku and 2018 Palu, have shaped the way tsunami risk is perceived and acted upon. Based on lessons learned from a selection of past tsunami events, this paper aims to review the existing body of knowledge and the current challenges in tsunami risk communication, and to identify the gaps in the tsunami risk management methodologies. The important lessons provided by the past events call for strengthening community resilience and improvement in risk-informed actions and policy measures. This paper shows that research efforts related to tsunami risk communication remain fragmented. The analysis of tsunami risk together with a thorough understanding of risk communication gaps and challenges is indispensable towards developing and deploying comprehensive disaster risk reduction measures. Moving from a broad and interdisciplinary perspective, the paper suggests that probabilistic hazard and risk assessments could potentially contribute towards better science communication and improved planning and implementation of risk mitigation measures. COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology); Royal Society, UK (grant number CHL\R1\180173); Severo Ochoa Centers of Excellence Program (CEX 2018-000797-S) funded by MCIN/ AEI /10.13039/501100011033; Lloyd's Tercentenary Research Foundation, the Lighthill Risk Network, and the Lloyd's Register Foundation-Data Centric Engineering Programme of the Alan Turing Institute.

Published
2022

11. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps

Author

Jörn Behrens, Finn Løvholt, Fatemeh Jalayer, Stefano Lorito, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mathilde Sørensen, Stephane Abadie, Ignacio Aguirre-Ayerbe, Iñigo Aniel-Quiroga, Andrey Babeyko, Marco Baiguera, Roberto Basili, Stefano Belliazzi, Anita Grezio, Kendra Johnson, Shane Murphy, Raphaël Paris, Irina Rafliana, Raffaele De Risi, Tiziana Rossetto, Jacopo Selva, Matteo Taroni, Marta Del Zoppo, Alberto Armigliato, Vladimír Bureš, Pavel Cech, Claudia Cecioni, Paul Christodoulides, Gareth Davies, Frédéric Dias, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, Mauricio González, Maria Gritsevich, Serge Guillas, Carl Bonnevie Harbitz, Utku Kânoǧlu, Jorge Macías, Gerassimos A. Papadopoulos, Jascha Polet, Fabrizio Romano, Amos Salamon, Antonio Scala, Mislav Stepinac, David R. Tappin, Hong Kie Thio, Roberto Tonini, Ioanna Triantafyllou, Thomas Ulrich, Elisa Varini, Manuela Volpe, Eduardo Vyhmeister, Department of Mathematics/CEN, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI), University of Naples Federico II, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Sezione di Roma (INGV), Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, ERN Internacional, Mexico City, Centre Internacional de Mètodes Numèrics en Enginyeria (CIMNE), University of Bergen (UiB), Laboratoire des Sciences de l'Ingénieur Appliquées à la Mécanique et au génie Electrique (SIAME), Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour (UPPA), IHCantabria - Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de La Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ, Department Geodesy and Remote Sensing, University College of London [London] (UCL), Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Sezione di Bologna (INGV), GEM Foundation, Pavia, Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER), Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans (LMV), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement et la société-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA)-Observatoire de Physique du Globe de Clermont-Ferrand (OPGC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA), German Development Institute/Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE), Bonn, Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), University of Bristol [Bristol], Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna (UNIBO), University of Hradec Králové, Università degli Studi Roma Tre, Cyprus University of Technology, Geoscience Australia, Canberra, ACT, University College Dublin [Dublin] (UCD), Universidad de Málaga [Málaga] = University of Málaga [Málaga], Finnish Geospatial Research Institute (FGI), Masala, University of Helsinki, Institute of Physics and Technology, Ural Federal University, Ekaterinburg, Department of Engineering Sciences, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Athens, California State Polytechnic University [Pomona] (CAL POLY POMONA), Geological Survey of Israel (GSI), Geological Survey of Israel, University of Zagreb, British Geological Survey (BGS), AECOM, Department of Geology and Geoenvironment, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, München, C.N.R. - Institute for Applied Mathematics and Information Technologies, Milano, Insight Research Centre, University College Cork, University of Naples Federico II = Università degli studi di Napoli Federico II, Università degli Studi Roma Tre = Roma Tre University (ROMA TRE), Helsingin yliopisto = Helsingfors universitet = University of Helsinki, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (NKUA), Department of Physics, Jörn Behrens, Finn Løvholt, Fatemeh Jalayer, Stefano Lorito, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mathilde Sørensen, Stephane Abadie, Ignacio Aguirre-Ayerbe, Iñigo Aniel-Quiroga, Andrey Babeyko, Marco Baiguera, Roberto Basili, Stefano Belliazzi, Anita Grezio, Kendra Johnson, Shane Murphy, Raphaël Paris, Irina Rafliana, Raffaele De Risi, Tiziana Rossetto, Jacopo Selva, Matteo Taroni, Marta Del Zoppo, Alberto Armigliato, Vladimír Bureš, Pavel Cech, Claudia Cecioni, Paul Christodoulides, Gareth Davies, Frédéric Dias, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, Mauricio González, Maria Gritsevich, Serge Guillas, Carl Bonnevie Harbitz, Utku Kânoǧlu, Jorge Macías, Gerassimos A. Papadopoulos, Jascha Polet, Fabrizio Romano, Amos Salamon, Antonio Scala, Mislav Stepinac, David R. Tappin, Hong Kie Thio, Roberto Tonini, Ioanna Triantafyllou, Thomas Ulrich, Elisa Varini, Manuela Volpe, Eduardo Vyhmeister, Behrens, J., Lovholt, F., Jalayer, F., Lorito, S., Salgado-Galvez, M. A., Sorensen, M., Abadie, S., Aguirre-Ayerbe, I., Aniel-Quiroga, I., Babeyko, A., Baiguera, M., Basili, R., Belliazzi, S., Grezio, A., Johnson, K., Murphy, S., Paris, R., Rafliana, I., De Risi, R., Rossetto, T., Selva, J., Taroni, M., Del Zoppo, M., Armigliato, A., Bures, V., Cech, P., Cecioni, C., Christodoulides, P., Davies, G., Dias, F., Bayraktar, H. B., Gonzalez, M., Gritsevich, M., Guillas, S., Harbitz, C. B., Kanoglu, U., Macias, J., Papadopoulos, G. A., Polet, J., Romano, F., Salamon, A., Scala, A., Stepinac, M., Tappin, D. R., Thio, H. K., Tonini, R., Triantafyllou, I., Ulrich, T., Varini, E., Volpe, M., Vyhmeister, E., and Universidad de Cantabria

Subjects
Risk, 1171 Geosciences, Risk analysis, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Computer science, hazard, Science, SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS, SCALING RELATIONS, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, tsunami, probabilistic method, risk, research gap, Probabilistic method, [SDU.STU.VO]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Volcanology, Natural disaster, STRONG GROUND MOTION, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, tsunami, probabilistic method, hazard, risk, research gap, Tsunami, Probabilistic risk assessment, SUBDUCTION-ZONE EARTHQUAKES, Probabilistic logic, Maturity (finance), Hazard, TRIANGULAR DISLOCATION, SOCIAL VULNERABILITY, Risk analysis (engineering), LARGE SUBMARINE LANDSLIDES, Tsunami hazard, FRAGILITY FUNCTIONS, 2011 TOHOKU, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Research gap, Earth and Related Environmental Sciences, Natural Sciences, SHEAR-BAND PROPAGATION
Abstract

Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach. © Copyright © 2021 Behrens, Løvholt, Jalayer, Lorito, Salgado-Gálvez, Sørensen, Abadie, Aguirre-Ayerbe, Aniel-Quiroga, Babeyko, Baiguera, Basili, Belliazzi, Grezio, Johnson, Murphy, Paris, Rafliana, De Risi, Rossetto, Selva, Taroni, Del Zoppo, Armigliato, Bureš, Cech, Cecioni, Christodoulides, Davies, Dias, Bayraktar, González, Gritsevich, Guillas, Harbitz, Kânoǧlu, Macías, Papadopoulos, Polet, Romano, Salamon, Scala, Stepinac, Tappin, Thio, Tonini, Triantafyllou, Ulrich, Varini, Volpe and Vyhmeister. This article is based upon work from COST Action CA18109 AGITHAR, supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology). VB and PC obtained support through the VES20 Inter-Cost LTC 20020 project. MS-G obtained support through the Severo Ochoa Centers of Excellence Program (Ref. CEX 2018–000797-S). TU acknowledges funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (ChEESE project, Grant Agreement No. 823844).

Published
2021
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12. Nurse training in self-management of patients with cardiovascular diseases: a multicentre observational study.

Author

La Sala R, Dicembrino RB, Dall'Argine S, Baiguera M, Gazzotti L, Gubin E, Rondini A, and Mamei I

Subjects
Clinical Competence, Female, Health Education, Humans, Male, Nurses, Patient-Centered Care, Cardiovascular Diseases therapy, Education, Nursing, Continuing, Self-Management education
Abstract

Background and Aim: The therapeutic education and self-management carried out by nurses, are winning elements in cardiovascular secondary prevention, but because they are complex matters, they require special training by the professionals. The target of the study has been to assess the effects in clinical practice of a training program for nurses in the management of patients with cardiovascular diseases, leaning towards a self-oriented patient management and therapeutic patient education., Method: The research utilized a quali-quantitative study to compare the responses of 53 trained nurses (experimental group) and 101 untrained nurses (control group). The instrument used was a self-report structured in two sections: the first, a qualitative kind, was used to investigate the portrayal of nurses regarding self-management; the second, a quantitative kind, included a Likert scale based on 5 points (1=never, 5=always) that investigated the professional nurse's action in its bio-psycho-socio-relational and clinical activities (La Sala, 2012)., Results: The trained nurses' approach is more oriented towards the psycho-socio-relational dimension, compared to the untrained nurses. A difference also emerged regarding activities of a bio clinical nature, which are performed much more by untrained nurses compared to trained professionals., Conclusions: The health education and self-management skills were used by trained nurses during their care of patients with cardiovascular diseases, stressing the importance for professional nurses to develop an integrated competence, using narrative talks as the main tool in a patient-centred approach.

Published
2017
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