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2. Contributions of healthier diets and agricultural productivity toward sustainability and climate goals in the United States

Author

Wu, Grace C, Baker, Justin S, Wade, Christopher M, McCord, Gordon C, Fargione, Joseph E, and Havlik, Petr

Subjects
Climate Action, Life on Land, Decent Work and Economic Growth, Land use, Diets, Agriculture, GHG emissions, FABLE, Environmental Sciences
Abstract

Meeting ambitious climate targets will require deploying the full suite of mitigation options, including those that indirectly reduce greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. Healthy diets have sustainability co-benefits by directly reducing livestock emissions as well as indirectly reducing land use emissions. Increased crop productivity could indirectly avoid emissions by reducing cropland area. However, there is disagreement on the sustainability of proposed healthy U.S. diets and a lack of clarity on how long-term sustainability benefits may change in response to shifts in the livestock sector. Here, we explore the GHG emissions impacts of seven scenarios that vary U.S. crop yields and healthier diets in the U.S. and overseas. We also examine how impacts vary across assumptions of future ruminant livestock productivity and ruminant stocking density in the U.S. We employ two complementary land use models—the US FABLE Calculator, an agricultural and forestry sector accounting model with high agricultural commodity representation, and GLOBIOM, a spatially explicit partial equilibrium optimization model for global land use systems. Results suggest that healthier U.S. diets that follow the Dietary Guidelines for Americans reduce agricultural and land use greenhouse gas emissions by 25–57% (approx 120–310 MtCO2e/y) and pastureland area by 28–38%. The potential emissions and land sparing benefits of U.S. agricultural productivity growth are modest within the U.S. due to the increasing comparative advantage of U.S. crops. Our findings suggest that healthy U.S. diets can significantly contribute toward meeting U.S. long-term climate goals for the land use sectors.

Published
2023

22. Opportunities and spatial hotspots for irrigation expansion in Guatemala to support development goals in the food-energy-water nexus

Author

Wade, Christopher M., primary, Baker, Justin S., additional, Van Houtven, George, additional, Cai, Yongxia, additional, Lord, Benjamin, additional, Castellanos, Edwin, additional, Leiva, Benjamín, additional, Fuentes, Gabriela, additional, Alfaro, Gabriela, additional, Kondash, AJ, additional, Henry, Candise L., additional, Shaw, Brooke, additional, and Redmon, Jennifer Hoponick, additional

Published
2022
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27. Projecting the Impact of Socioeconomic and Policy Factors on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Carbon Sequestration in U.S. Forestry and Agriculture

Author

Wade, Christopher M., primary, Baker, Justin S., primary, Jones, Jason P. H., primary, Austin, Kemen G., primary, Cai, Yongxia, primary, de Hernandez, Alison Bean, primary, Latta, Gregory S., primary, Ohrel, Sara B., primary, Ragnauth, Shaun, primary, Creason, Jared, primary, and McCarl, Bruce, primary

Published
2022
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31. Implications of Alternative Land Conversion Cost Specifications on Projected Afforestation Potential in the United States

Author

Cai, Yongxia, Wade, Christopher M., Baker, Justin S., Jones, Jason P. H., Latta, Gregory S., Ohrel, Sara B., Ragnauth, Shaun A., and Creason, Jared R.

Subjects
Article
Abstract

The Forestry and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model with Greenhouse Gases (FASOMGHG) has historically relied on regional average costs of land conversion to simulate land use change across cropland, pasture, rangeland, and forestry. This assumption limits the accuracy of the land conversion estimates by not recognizing spatial heterogeneity in land quality and conversion costs. Using data from Nielsen et al. (2014), we obtained the afforestation cost per county, then estimated nonparametric regional marginal cost functions for land converting to forestry. These afforestation costs were then incorporated into FASOMGHG. Three different assumptions for land moving into the forest sector (constant average conversion cost, static rising marginal costs, and dynamic rising marginal cost) were run in order to assess the implications of alternative land conversion cost assumptions on key outcomes, such as projected forest area and cropland use, carbon sequestration, and forest product output.

Published
2020

41. Online Appendix

Author

Jones, Jason P. H., primary, Baker, Justin S., primary, Austin, Kemen, primary, Latta, Greg, primary, Wade, Chrisopher M., primary, Cai, Yongxia, primary, Aramayo-Lipa, Lindsay, primary, Beach, Robert, primary, Ohrel, Sara B., primary, Ragnauth, Shaun, primary, Creason, Jared, primary, and Cole, Jeff, primary

Published
2019
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