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2. Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Author

Pereira, Henrique M., primary, Martins, Inês S., additional, Rosa, Isabel M. D., additional, Kim, HyeJin, additional, Leadley, Paul, additional, Popp, Alexander, additional, van Vuuren, Detlef P., additional, Hurtt, George, additional, Quoss, Luise, additional, Arneth, Almut, additional, Baisero, Daniele, additional, Bakkenes, Michel, additional, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, additional, Chini, Louise, additional, Di Marco, Moreno, additional, Ferrier, Simon, additional, Fujimori, Shinichiro, additional, Guerra, Carlos A., additional, Harfoot, Michael, additional, Harwood, Thomas D., additional, Hasegawa, Tomoko, additional, Haverd, Vanessa, additional, Havlík, Petr, additional, Hellweg, Stefanie, additional, Hilbers, Jelle P., additional, Hill, Samantha L. L., additional, Hirata, Akiko, additional, Hoskins, Andrew J., additional, Humpenöder, Florian, additional, Janse, Jan H., additional, Jetz, Walter, additional, Johnson, Justin A., additional, Krause, Andreas, additional, Leclère, David, additional, Matsui, Tetsuya, additional, Meijer, Johan R., additional, Merow, Cory, additional, Obersteiner, Michael, additional, Ohashi, Haruka, additional, De Palma, Adriana, additional, Poulter, Benjamin, additional, Purvis, Andy, additional, Quesada, Benjamin, additional, Rondinini, Carlo, additional, Schipper, Aafke M., additional, Settele, Josef, additional, Sharp, Richard, additional, Stehfest, Elke, additional, Strassburg, Bernardo B. N., additional, Takahashi, Kiyoshi, additional, Talluto, Matthew V., additional, Thuiller, Wilfried, additional, Titeux, Nicolas, additional, Visconti, Piero, additional, Ware, Christopher, additional, Wolf, Florian, additional, and Alkemade, Rob, additional

Published
2024
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3. Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Author

Pereira, Henrique M., Martins, Inês S., Rosa, Isabel M.D., Kim, Hye Jin, Leadley, Paul, Popp, Alexander, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Hurtt, George, Quoss, Luise, Arneth, Almut, Baisero, Daniele, Bakkenes, Michel, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Chini, Louise, Di Marco, Moreno, Ferrier, Simon, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Guerra, Carlos A., Harfoot, Michael, Harwood, Thomas D., Hasegawa, Tomoko, Haverd, Vanessa, Havlík, Petr, Hellweg, Stefanie, Hilbers, Jelle P., Hill, Samantha L.L., Hirata, Akiko, Hoskins, Andrew J., Humpenöder, Florian, Janse, Jan H., Jetz, Walter, Johnson, Justin A., Krause, Andreas, Leclère, David, Matsui, Tetsuya, Meijer, Johan R., Merow, Cory, Obersteiner, Michael, Ohashi, Haruka, De Palma, Adriana, Poulter, Benjamin, Purvis, Andy, Quesada, Benjamin, Rondinini, Carlo, Schipper, Aafke M., Settele, Josef, Sharp, Richard, Stehfest, Elke, Strassburg, Bernardo B.N., Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Talluto, Matthew V., Thuiller, Wilfried, Titeux, Nicolas, Visconti, Piero, Ware, Christopher, Wolf, Florian, Alkemade, Rob, Pereira, Henrique M., Martins, Inês S., Rosa, Isabel M.D., Kim, Hye Jin, Leadley, Paul, Popp, Alexander, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Hurtt, George, Quoss, Luise, Arneth, Almut, Baisero, Daniele, Bakkenes, Michel, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Chini, Louise, Di Marco, Moreno, Ferrier, Simon, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Guerra, Carlos A., Harfoot, Michael, Harwood, Thomas D., Hasegawa, Tomoko, Haverd, Vanessa, Havlík, Petr, Hellweg, Stefanie, Hilbers, Jelle P., Hill, Samantha L.L., Hirata, Akiko, Hoskins, Andrew J., Humpenöder, Florian, Janse, Jan H., Jetz, Walter, Johnson, Justin A., Krause, Andreas, Leclère, David, Matsui, Tetsuya, Meijer, Johan R., Merow, Cory, Obersteiner, Michael, Ohashi, Haruka, De Palma, Adriana, Poulter, Benjamin, Purvis, Andy, Quesada, Benjamin, Rondinini, Carlo, Schipper, Aafke M., Settele, Josef, Sharp, Richard, Stehfest, Elke, Strassburg, Bernardo B.N., Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Talluto, Matthew V., Thuiller, Wilfried, Titeux, Nicolas, Visconti, Piero, Ware, Christopher, Wolf, Florian, and Alkemade, Rob

Abstract

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Published
2024

4. Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Author

Environmental Sciences, Pereira, Henrique M., Martins, Inês S., Rosa, Isabel M.D., Kim, Hye Jin, Leadley, Paul, Popp, Alexander, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Hurtt, George, Quoss, Luise, Arneth, Almut, Baisero, Daniele, Bakkenes, Michel, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Chini, Louise, Di Marco, Moreno, Ferrier, Simon, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Guerra, Carlos A., Harfoot, Michael, Harwood, Thomas D., Hasegawa, Tomoko, Haverd, Vanessa, Havlík, Petr, Hellweg, Stefanie, Hilbers, Jelle P., Hill, Samantha L.L., Hirata, Akiko, Hoskins, Andrew J., Humpenöder, Florian, Janse, Jan H., Jetz, Walter, Johnson, Justin A., Krause, Andreas, Leclère, David, Matsui, Tetsuya, Meijer, Johan R., Merow, Cory, Obersteiner, Michael, Ohashi, Haruka, De Palma, Adriana, Poulter, Benjamin, Purvis, Andy, Quesada, Benjamin, Rondinini, Carlo, Schipper, Aafke M., Settele, Josef, Sharp, Richard, Stehfest, Elke, Strassburg, Bernardo B.N., Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Talluto, Matthew V., Thuiller, Wilfried, Titeux, Nicolas, Visconti, Piero, Ware, Christopher, Wolf, Florian, Alkemade, Rob, Environmental Sciences, Pereira, Henrique M., Martins, Inês S., Rosa, Isabel M.D., Kim, Hye Jin, Leadley, Paul, Popp, Alexander, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Hurtt, George, Quoss, Luise, Arneth, Almut, Baisero, Daniele, Bakkenes, Michel, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Chini, Louise, Di Marco, Moreno, Ferrier, Simon, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Guerra, Carlos A., Harfoot, Michael, Harwood, Thomas D., Hasegawa, Tomoko, Haverd, Vanessa, Havlík, Petr, Hellweg, Stefanie, Hilbers, Jelle P., Hill, Samantha L.L., Hirata, Akiko, Hoskins, Andrew J., Humpenöder, Florian, Janse, Jan H., Jetz, Walter, Johnson, Justin A., Krause, Andreas, Leclère, David, Matsui, Tetsuya, Meijer, Johan R., Merow, Cory, Obersteiner, Michael, Ohashi, Haruka, De Palma, Adriana, Poulter, Benjamin, Purvis, Andy, Quesada, Benjamin, Rondinini, Carlo, Schipper, Aafke M., Settele, Josef, Sharp, Richard, Stehfest, Elke, Strassburg, Bernardo B.N., Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Talluto, Matthew V., Thuiller, Wilfried, Titeux, Nicolas, Visconti, Piero, Ware, Christopher, Wolf, Florian, and Alkemade, Rob

Published
2024

7. The geography of future water challenges : Bending the trend

Author

Ligtvoet, Willem, Bouwman, Arno, Bakkenes, Michel, Beusen, Arthur, van Bemmel, Bas, de Blois, Filip, de Bruin, Sophie, Beije, Ed, Bijlsma, Like, Doelman, Jonathan, Gernaat, David, Janse, Jan, van Puijenbroek, Peter, de Ruitter, Jan, van Rijn, Frank, de Vos, Lotte, Visser, Hans, Sperna Weiland, Frederiek, Eilander, Dirk, Oude Essink, Gualbert, Biemans, Hester, Gulpen, Marijn, Mortensen, Eric, Ward, Philip, Tiggeloven, Timothy, Susnik, Janez, Veerbeek, Wiliam, van Beek, Rens, Wanders, Niko, Bouw, Matthijs, Mo, Ce, Jones, Rennie, Tahseen, Sumaita, Kind, Jarl, Siderius, Christian, ten Brinke, Wilfried, Righart, Annemieke, Ligtvoet, Willem, Bouwman, Arno, Bakkenes, Michel, Beusen, Arthur, van Bemmel, Bas, de Blois, Filip, de Bruin, Sophie, Beije, Ed, Bijlsma, Like, Doelman, Jonathan, Gernaat, David, Janse, Jan, van Puijenbroek, Peter, de Ruitter, Jan, van Rijn, Frank, de Vos, Lotte, Visser, Hans, Sperna Weiland, Frederiek, Eilander, Dirk, Oude Essink, Gualbert, Biemans, Hester, Gulpen, Marijn, Mortensen, Eric, Ward, Philip, Tiggeloven, Timothy, Susnik, Janez, Veerbeek, Wiliam, van Beek, Rens, Wanders, Niko, Bouw, Matthijs, Mo, Ce, Jones, Rennie, Tahseen, Sumaita, Kind, Jarl, Siderius, Christian, ten Brinke, Wilfried, and Righart, Annemieke

Published
2023

9. The geography of future water challenges:Bending the trend

Author

Ligtvoet, Willem, Bouwman, Arno, Bakkenes, Michel, Beusen, Arthur, van Bemmel, Bas, de Blois, Filip, de Bruin, Sophie, Beije, Ed, Bijlsma, Like, Doelman, Jonathan, Gernaat, David, Janse, Jan, van Puijenbroek, Peter, de Ruitter, Jan, van Rijn, Frank, de Vos, Lotte, Visser, Hans, Sperna Weiland, Frederiek, Eilander, Dirk, Oude Essink, Gualbert, Biemans, Hester, Gulpen, Marijn, Mortensen, Eric, Ward, Philip, Tiggeloven, Timothy, Susnik, Janez, Veerbeek, Wiliam, van Beek, Rens, Wanders, Niko, Bouw, Matthijs, Mo, Ce, Jones, Rennie, Tahseen, Sumaita, Kind, Jarl, Siderius, Christian, ten Brinke, Wilfried, and Righart, Annemieke

Published
2023

14. Future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss

Author

Visconti, Piero, Pressey, Robert L., Giorgini, Daniele, Maiorano, Luigi, Bakkenes, Michel, Boitani, Luigi, Alkemade, Rob, Falcucci, Alessandra, Chiozza, Federica, and Rondinini, Carlo

Published
2011

16. Assessing ambitious nature conservation strategies in a below 2 degrees warmer and food-secure world – supplementary spatial data

Author

Kok, Marcel T.J., Meijer, J.W., van Zeist, Willem-Jan, Hilbers, Jelle P., Immovilli, Marco, Janse, Jan H., Stehfest, Elke, Bakkenes, Michel, Schipper, Aafke M., Alkemade, J.R.M., Kok, Marcel T.J., Meijer, J.W., van Zeist, Willem-Jan, Hilbers, Jelle P., Immovilli, Marco, Janse, Jan H., Stehfest, Elke, Bakkenes, Michel, Schipper, Aafke M., and Alkemade, J.R.M.

Abstract

This repository contains the supplementary spatial data describing the specific prioritization of conservation areas under the Half Earth (HE) and Sharing the Planet (SP) scenarios, and the resulting scenario land use and MSA data sets for the year 2050, including also a baseline (BL) scenario. All spatial data is in geotiff format at a 10 arcsecond resolution in WGS84 coordinate system. Detailed description of the methodology is provided in the paper listed under "related identifiers"., Assessing ambitious nature conservation strategies in a below 2 degrees warmer and food-secure world – supplementary spatial data Authors: Marcel Kok, Johan Meijer, Willem-Jan van Zeist, Jelle Hilbers, Marco Immovilli, Jan Janse, Elke Stehfest, Michel Bakkenes, Andrzej Tabeau, Aafke Schipper, Rob Alkemade Point of contact: Marcel.Kok@pbl.nl Research paper summary: Global biodiversity is projected to further decline under a wide range of future socio-economic development pathways, even in sustainability-oriented scenarios. This raises the question how biodiversity can be put on a path to recovery, the core challenge for the CBD post-2020 global biodiversity framework. We designed two contrasting, ambitious global conservation strategies, ‘Half Earth’ (HE) and ‘Sharing the Planet’ (SP), and evaluated their ability to restore terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity and to provide nature’s contributions to people (NCP), while also limiting global warming below 2 degrees and ensuring food security. We applied the integrated assessment framework IMAGE with the GLOBIO biodiversity model, using the ‘Middle of the Road’ Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP2) with its projected human population growth as baseline. We found that both conservation strategies reduce the global loss of biodiversity and NCP, but are insufficient to restore biodiversity. The HE strategy performs generally better for terrestrial biodiversity (biodiversity intactness (MSA), Area of Habitat Index, Living Planet Index, Red List Index) in currently still natural regions. The SP strategy yields more improvements for biodiversity in human-used areas, aquatic biodiversity and for regulating NCP (pest control, pollination, erosion control, water quality). However, the ‘conservation only’ scenarios show a considerable increase in food security risks and further global temperature increase, compared to the baseline. To restore biodiversity, it

Published
2022

20. Analyse leefomgevingseffecten : verkiezingsprogramma’s 2021-2025, CDA, D66, GroenLinks, SP, PvdA, ChristenUnie : effecten op: Mobiliteit & bereikbaarheid, Klimaat & energie, Landbouw, voedsel & natuur, Wonen

Author

Folkert, Rob, Hilbers, Hans, Schilder, Frans, Schouten, Marc, Tiktak, Aaldrik, Boezeman, Daan, Hekkenberg, Michiel, ’t Hoen, Maarten, Bakkenes, Michel, Blomjous, Dieuwert, van den Born, Gert Jan, Brink, Corjan, Daalhuizen, Femke, van Dam, Dick, van Dam, Jan, Daniels, Bert, Geilenkirchen, Gerben, Groot, Jolien, Hellegers, Marjon, Hendriks, Jan, van Hinsberg, Arjen, der Hoek, Dirk-Janvan, Hoogervorst, Nico, van Hoorn, Anton, Koelemeijer, Robert, van der Kooij, Petra, Koutstaal, Paul, de Krom, Michiel, Kruitwagen, Sonja, Lennartz, Christian, Lensink, Sander, van Meerkerk, Jordy, van der Molen, Folckert, Muilwijk, Hanneke, Nauta, Marieke, Notenboom, Jos, van Schijndel, Marian, Schotten, Kees, van der Staak, Marieke, Uitbeijerse, Gabrielle, Vries, Anneke, van der Zanden, Emma, van Gerwen, Olav-Jan, van den Brink, Thelma, Arnouts, Rikke, van der Maas, Wim, Menkveld, Marijke, Smekens, Koen, van Stralen, Joost, Tigchelaar, Casper, Wetzels, Wouter, and de Knegt, Bart

Subjects
Biodiversiteit en Beleid, Life Science, Biodiversity and Policy
Abstract

Op verzoek van het CDA, D66, GroenLinks, de SP, de PvdA en de ChristenUnie heeft het PBL hun verkiezingsprogramma’s voor de periode 2021-2025 geanalyseerd op effecten voor de leefomgeving. In het rapport zijn de effecten van maatregelen voor vier thema’s in kaart gebracht: Mobiliteit & bereikbaarheid, Klimaat & energie, Landbouw, voedsel & natuur en Wonen. Er zijn belangrijke verschillen tussen de partijen in de keuze van de maatregelen, de intensiteit van de bijbehorende instrumenten en de effecten op de leefomgeving.

Published
2021

21. Biologische Vielfalt

Author

Karousakis, Katia, primary, van Oorschot, Mark, additional, Perry, Edward, additional, Jeuken, Michel, additional, Bakkenes, Michel, additional, Meijl, Hans, additional, and Tabeau, Andrzej, additional

Published
2012
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22. Biodiversité

Author

Karousakis, Katia, primary, van Oorschot, Mark, additional, Perry, Edward, additional, Jeuken, Michel, additional, Bakkenes, Michel, additional, Meijl, Hans, additional, and Tabeau, Andrzej, additional

Published
2012
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24. Extinction risk from climate change

Author

Thomas, Chris D., Cameron, Alison, Green, Rhys E., Bakkenes, Michel, Beaumont, Linda J., Collingham, Yvonne C., Erasmus, Barend F. N., de Siqueira, Marinez Ferreira, Grainger, Alan, Hannah, Lee, Hughes, Lesley, Huntley, Brian, van Jaarsveld, Albert S., Midgley, Guy F., Miles, Lera, Ortega-Huerta, Miguel A., Townsend Peterson, A., Phillips, Oliver L., and Williams, Stephen E.

Abstract

Author(s): Chris D. Thomas (corresponding author) [1]; Alison Cameron [1]; Rhys E. Green [2]; Michel Bakkenes [3]; Linda J. Beaumont [4]; Yvonne C. Collingham [5]; Barend F. N. Erasmus [6]; [...]

Published
2004
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27. Assessing ambitious nature conservation strategies within a 2 degree warmer and food-secure world

Author

Kok, Marcel T.J., Meijer, J.W., van Zeist, Willem-Jan, Hilbers, Jelle P., Immovilli, Marco, Janse, Jan H., Stehfest, Elke, Bakkenes, Michel, Tabeau, A.A., Schipper, Aafke M., and Alkemade, J.R.M.

Subjects
Department Experimenteel Dieronderzoek, Environmental Systems Analysis, Department Experimental Animal Research, Milieusysteemanalyse, Sociology of Development and Change, Life Science, International Policy, Sociologie van Ontwikkeling en Verandering, Internationaal Beleid
Abstract

Global biodiversity is projected to further decline under a wide range of future socio-economic development pathways, even in sustainability oriented scenarios. This raises the question how biodiversity can be put on a path to recovery, the core challenge for the CBD post-2020 global biodiversity framework. We designed two contrasting, ambitious global conservation strategies, ‘Half Earth’ (HE) and ‘Sharing the Planet’ (SP), and evaluated their ability to restore terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity and to provide ecosystem services while also mitigating climate change and ensuring food security. We applied the integrated assessment framework IMAGE with the GLOBIO biodiversity model, using the ‘Middle of the Road’ Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP2) with its projected human population growth as baseline.We found that both conservation strategies result in a reduction in the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services globally, but without additional measures to achieve effective climate mitigation they will be insufficient to restore biodiversity. The HE strategy performs better for terrestrial biodiversity protection (biodiversity intactness (MSA), Red List Index, geometric mean abundance) in currently still natural regions, reflecting global conservation priorities. The SP strategy yields more improvements for biodiversity in human-used areas, aquatic biodiversity and for regulating ecosystem services (pest control, pollination, erosion control), reflecting regional priorities. However, ‘conservation only’ scenarios show a considerable increase in food security risks (especially in Sub-Saharan Africa) compared to the baseline and limited reduction of global temperature increase. Only when conservation strategies are combined with climate change mitigation efforts and additional actions especially in the agricultural and energy system into a portfolio of ‘integrated sustainability measures’, both conservation strategies result in restoring biodiversity to current values or even some improvement, while keeping global warming below two degrees and keeping food security risks below baseline. Minimizing food wastes and reducing consumption of animal products will be crucial

Published
2020

28. IAMC Wiki Model Documentation IMAGE

Author

Stehfest, Elke, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Kram, Tom, Bouwman, A.F., Alkemade, J.R.M., Bakkenes, Michel, Bouwman, Arno, den Elzen, Michel, Janse, Jan, Lucas, Paul L., van Minnen, Jelle, Prins, Anne Gerdien, Biemans, H., Muller, Chris, Stehfest, Elke, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Kram, Tom, Bouwman, A.F., Alkemade, J.R.M., Bakkenes, Michel, Bouwman, Arno, den Elzen, Michel, Janse, Jan, Lucas, Paul L., van Minnen, Jelle, Prins, Anne Gerdien, Biemans, H., and Muller, Chris

Published
2020

29. Biodiversity conservation: Climate change and extinction risk

Author

Thomas, Chris D., Williams, Stephen E., Cameron, Alison, Green, Rhys E., Bakkenes, Michel, Beaumont, Linda J., Collingham, Yvonne C., Erasmus, Barend F. N., Ferreira de Siqueira, Marinez, Grainger, Alan, Hannah, Lee, Hughes, Lesley, Huntley, Brian, van Jaarsveld, Albert S., Midgley, Guy F., Miles, Lera, Ortega-Huerta, Miguel A., Peterson, A. Townsend, and Phillips, Oliver L.

Published
2004

30. Pathways for agriculture and forestry to contribute to terrestrial biodiversity conservation: A global scenario-study

Author

Environmental Sciences, Kok, Marcel T.J., Alkemade, Rob, Bakkenes, Michel, van Eerdt, Martha, Janse, Jan, Mandryk, Maryia, Kram, Tom, Lazarova, Tanya, Meijer, Johan, Oorschot, van, Mark, Westhoek, Henk, Zagt, Roderick, van den Berg, Maurits, Esch, van der, Stefan, Prins, Anne Gerdien, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Environmental Sciences, Kok, Marcel T.J., Alkemade, Rob, Bakkenes, Michel, van Eerdt, Martha, Janse, Jan, Mandryk, Maryia, Kram, Tom, Lazarova, Tanya, Meijer, Johan, Oorschot, van, Mark, Westhoek, Henk, Zagt, Roderick, van den Berg, Maurits, Esch, van der, Stefan, Prins, Anne Gerdien, and van Vuuren, Detlef P.

Published
2018

31. Exploring future changes in land use and land condition and the impacts on food, water, climate change and biodiversity : Scenarios for the UNCCD Global Land Outlook

Author

van der Esch, Stefan, ten Brink, B., Stehfest, Elke, Bakkenes, Michel, Sewell, Annelies, Bouwman, A., Meijer, Johan, Westhoek, Henk, van den Berg, Maurits, van den Born, Gert Jan, Doelman, Jonathan, Berkhout, Ezra, Klein Goldewijk, Kees, Bouwman, A.F., Beusen, Arthur, van Zeist, Willem-Jan, Stoorvogel, J.J., Schut, A.G.T., Biemans, H., Candel, J.J.L., Van Beek, Rens, Tabeau, A.A., van Meijl, J.C.M., Caspari, T.M., van Egmond, F.M., van Lynden, G.W.J., and Mantel, S.

Subjects
Water and Food, Programmamanagement, Public Administration and Policy, Water en Voedsel, WASS, PE&RC, Bodemgeografie en Landschap, Plant Production Systems, Plantaardige Productiesystemen, Soil Geography and Landscape, Life Science, Bestuurskunde, International Policy, Internationaal Beleid, ISRIC - World Soil Information
Abstract

The pressure on land is growing in many regions of the world, due to the increasing demand for arable crops, meat and dairy products, bio-energy and timber, and is exacerbated by land degradation and climate change. This policy report provides scenario projections for the UNCCD Global Land Outlook, exploring future changes to the use and condition of land and the resulting impacts on food, water, climate change and biodiversity.

Published
2017

32. Projecting Global Biodiversity Indicators under Future Development Scenarios

Author

Visconti, Piero, Bakkenes, Michel, Baisero, Daniele, Brooks, Thomas, Butchart, Stuart H. M., Joppa, Lucas, Alkemade, Rob, Di Marco, Moreno, Santini, Luca, Hoffmann, Michael, Maiorano, Luigi, Pressey, Robert L., Arponen, Anni, Boitani, Luigi, Reside, April E., van Vuuren, Detlef P., Rondinini, Carlo, Biosciences, Centre of Excellence in Metapopulation Research, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, and Mar Cabeza-Jaimejuan / Principal Investigator

Subjects
CLIMATE-CHANGE, Biodiversity indicators, Biodiversity scenarios, Extinction risk, Geometric Mean Abundance, Land-use change, Ungulates, DISTRIBUTION MODELS, Environmental Systems Analysis, Carnivores, Milieusysteemanalyse, MAMMALS, 1181 Ecology, evolutionary biology, DISTRIBUTIONS, biodiversity indicators, carnivores, climate change, extinction risk, land-use change, Red List Index, ungulates, Climate change, INDEX
Abstract

To address the ongoing global biodiversity crisis, governments have set strategic objectives and have adopted indicators to monitor progress toward their achievement. Projecting the likely impacts on biodiversity of different policy decisions allows decision makers to understand if and how these targets can be met. We projected trends in two widely used indicators of population abundance Geometric Mean Abundance, equivalent to the Living Planet Index and extinction risk (the Red List Index) under different climate and land-use change scenarios. Testing these on terrestrial carnivore and ungulate species, we found that both indicators decline steadily, and by 2050, under a Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, geometric mean population abundance declines by 18-35% while extinction risk increases for 8-23% of the species, depending on assumptions about species responses to climate change. BAU will therefore fail Convention on Biological Diversity target 12 of improving the conservation status of known threatened species. An alternative sustainable development scenario reduces both extinction risk and population losses compared with BAU and could lead to population increases. Our approach to model species responses to global changes brings the focus of scenarios directly to the species level, thus taking into account an additional dimension of biodiversity and paving the way for including stronger ecological foundations into future biodiversity scenario assessments.

Published
2016

34. Biodiversity conservation: Uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk/Effects of changes in climate and land use/Climate change and extinction risk (reply)

Author

Thomas, Chris D., Williams, Stephen E., Cameron, Alison, Green, Rhys E., Bakkenes, Michel, Beaumont, Linda J., Collingham, Yvonne C., Erasmus, Barend F. N., de Siqueira, Marinez Ferreira, Grainger, Alan, Hannah, Lee, Hughes, Lesley, Huntley, Brian, van Jaarsveld, Albert S., Midgley, Guy F., Miles, Lera, Ortega-Huerta, Miguel A., Peterson, A. Townsend, and Phillips, Oliver L.

Abstract

Author(s): Chris D. Thomas (corresponding author) [1]; Stephen E. Williams; Alison Cameron; Rhys E. Green; Michel Bakkenes; Linda J. Beaumont; Yvonne C. Collingham; Barend F. N. Erasmus; Marinez Ferreira de [...]

Published
2004
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35. S-World: a Global Soil Map for Environmental Modelling

Author

Stoorvogel, J.J., Bakkenes, Michel, Temme, A.J.A.M., Batjes, N.H., Ten Brink, Ben, Stoorvogel, J.J., Bakkenes, Michel, Temme, A.J.A.M., Batjes, N.H., and Ten Brink, Ben

Abstract

The research community increasingly analyses global environmental problems like climate change and desertification with models. These global environmental modelling studies require global, high resolution, spatially exhaustive, and quantitative data describing the soil profile. This study aimed to develop a pedological approach that takes stock of available legacy and auxiliary data to create a global, 30 arc second soil property database for modelling. The methodology uses the Harmonized World Soil Database and the ISRIC-WISE 3.1 soil profile database. Auxiliary information at 30 arc second resolution for various landscape properties is used to describe the variation in landscape properties (temperature and precipitation, topography, elevation, land use, and land cover). Complex mapping units of the HWSD were first disaggregated using a digital elevation model and toposequences to generate delineated areas described by a single soil type. Secondly, ranges of soil properties per soil type were determined using the soil profile data. Then a meta-analysis on a broad literature survey was used to develop a simple model that, based on landscape properties at a particular location, determines the position within these ranges and thus provides an estimation of the local soil properties. Finally, the model was implemented at the global level to determine the distribution of soil properties. The methodology, denominated S-World (Soils of the world) resulted in readily available, high resolution, global soil property maps that are now available for environmental modelling.

Published
2017

36. To What Extent Did We Change Our Soils? A Global Comparison of Natural and Current Conditions

Author

Stoorvogel, Jetse J., Bakkenes, Michel, ten Brink, Ben J.E., Temme, Arnaud J.A.M., Stoorvogel, Jetse J., Bakkenes, Michel, ten Brink, Ben J.E., and Temme, Arnaud J.A.M.

Abstract

The food security-climate change nexus rapidly gains momentum. Soil degradation plays an important role in this context while dealing with, for example, the productive capacity of our soil resources or carbon sequestration for climate change mitigation. However, little has been done to assess the pristine soil conditions despite the fact that these provide the basis to put changes into context. Various methodologies have been developed to assess the global distribution of current soil conditions. We used the S-World methodology that was developed to generate global soil property maps for environmental modelling studies. Up till now, the S-World methodology assessed current soil conditions by disaggregating the Harmonized World Soil Database using detailed information on climate, topography, land cover, and land use. This study used the S-World methodology to derive global soil conditions under natural vegetation. A large number of natural areas around the globe were identified for which land cover, expressed by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, could be successfully correlated to environmental conditions such as temperature, rainfall, and topography. Using this relation in regression kriging, the vegetation index under natural conditions was derived for the entire globe. Subsequently, the S-World methodology was used to calculate the soil properties under natural land cover and absence of human land use. Soil property maps for natural and current conditions were compared and showed large local differences. The results indicate that there are major changes due to land cover and land use change and that these changes are concentrated on the globe. The results are the basis for future assessments on, for example, land degradation, food security, or the sustainable development goals.

Published
2017

38. Projecting Global Biodiversity Indicators under Future Development Scenarios

Author

Environmental Sciences, Visconti, Piero, Bakkenes, Michel, Baisero, Daniele, Brooks, Thomas, Butchart, Stuart H M, Joppa, Lucas, Alkemade, Rob, Di Marco, Moreno, Santini, Luca, Hoffmann, Michael, Maiorano, Luigi, Pressey, Robert L., Arponen, Anni, Boitani, Luigi, Reside, April E., van Vuuren, Detlef P., Rondinini, Carlo, Environmental Sciences, Visconti, Piero, Bakkenes, Michel, Baisero, Daniele, Brooks, Thomas, Butchart, Stuart H M, Joppa, Lucas, Alkemade, Rob, Di Marco, Moreno, Santini, Luca, Hoffmann, Michael, Maiorano, Luigi, Pressey, Robert L., Arponen, Anni, Boitani, Luigi, Reside, April E., van Vuuren, Detlef P., and Rondinini, Carlo

Published
2016

40. Projecting Global Biodiversity Indicators under Future Development Scenarios

Author

Visconti, Piero, primary, Bakkenes, Michel, additional, Baisero, Daniele, additional, Brooks, Thomas, additional, Butchart, Stuart H. M., additional, Joppa, Lucas, additional, Alkemade, Rob, additional, Di Marco, Moreno, additional, Santini, Luca, additional, Hoffmann, Michael, additional, Maiorano, Luigi, additional, Pressey, Robert L., additional, Arponen, Anni, additional, Boitani, Luigi, additional, Reside, April E., additional, van Vuuren, Detlef P., additional, and Rondinini, Carlo, additional

Published
2015
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42. S-World: A Global Soil Map for Environmental Modelling.

Author

Stoorvogel, Jetse J., Bakkenes, Michel, Temme, Arnaud J. A. M., Batjes, Niels H., and Brink, Ben J. E.

Subjects
GLOBAL environmental change, ENVIRONMENTAL mapping, SOIL mapping, META-analysis, DATABASES
Abstract

The research community increasingly analyses global environmental problems like climate change and desertification with models. These global environmental modelling studies require global, high resolution, spatially exhaustive, and quantitative data describing the soil profile. This study aimed to develop a pedological approach that takes stock of available legacy and auxiliary data to create a global, 30 arc second soil property database for modelling. The methodology uses the Harmonized World Soil Database and the ISRIC-WISE 3.1 soil profile database. Auxiliary information at 30 arc second resolution for various landscape properties is used to describe the variation in landscape properties (temperature and precipitation, topography, elevation, land use, and land cover). Complex mapping units of the HWSD were first disaggregated using a digital elevation model and toposequences to generate delineated areas described by a single soil type. Secondly, ranges of soil properties per soil type were determined using the soil profile data. Then a meta-analysis on a broad literature survey was used to develop a simple model that, based on landscape properties at a particular location, determines the position within these ranges and thus provides an estimation of the local soil properties. Finally, the model was implemented at the global level to determine the distribution of soil properties. The methodology, denominated S-World (Soils of the world) resulted in readily available, high resolution, global soil property maps that are now available for environmental modelling. © 2016 The Authors Journal of Behavioral Decision Making Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2017
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44. Uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk/Effects of changes in climate and land use/Climate change and extinction risk (reply)

Author

Thomas, Chris D., primary, Williams, Stephen E., additional, Cameron, Alison, additional, Green, Rhys E., additional, Bakkenes, Michel, additional, Beaumont, Linda J., additional, Collingham, Yvonne C., additional, Erasmus, Barend F. N., additional, de Siqueira, Marinez Ferreira, additional, Grainger, Alan, additional, Hannah, Lee, additional, Hughes, Lesley, additional, Huntley, Brian, additional, van Jaarsveld, Albert S., additional, Midgley, Guy F., additional, Miles, Lera, additional, Ortega-Huerta, Miguel A., additional, Peterson, A. Townsend, additional, and Phillips, Oliver L., additional

Published
2004
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45. Socio-economic and ecological impacts of global protected area expansion plans.

Author

Visconti P, Bakkenes M, Smith RJ, Joppa L, and Sykes RE

Subjects
Animals, Biodiversity, Conservation of Natural Resources economics, Ecosystem, Endangered Species, Human Activities, Humans, Mammals, Models, Economic, Models, Theoretical, Socioeconomic Factors, Conservation of Natural Resources methods
Abstract

Several global strategies for protected area (PA) expansion have been proposed to achieve the Convention on Biological Diversity's Aichi target 11 as a means to stem biodiversity loss, as required by the Aichi target 12. However, habitat loss outside PAs will continue to affect habitats and species, and PAs may displace human activities into areas that might be even more important for species persistence. Here we measure the expected contribution of PA expansion strategies to Aichi target 12 by estimating the extent of suitable habitat available for all terrestrial mammals, with and without additional protection (the latter giving the counterfactual outcome), under different socio-economic scenarios and consequent land-use change to 2020. We found that expanding PAs to achieve representation targets for ecoregions under a Business-as-usual socio-economic scenario will result in a worse prognosis than doing nothing for more than 50% of the world's terrestrial mammals. By contrast, targeting protection towards threatened species can increase the suitable habitat available to over 60% of terrestrial mammals. Even in the absence of additional protection, an alternative socio-economic scenario, adopting progressive changes in human consumption, leads to positive outcomes for mammals globally and to the largest improvements for wide-ranging species., (© 2015 The Author(s).)

Published
2015
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46. Future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss.

Author

Visconti P, Pressey RL, Giorgini D, Maiorano L, Bakkenes M, Boitani L, Alkemade R, Falcucci A, Chiozza F, and Rondinini C

Subjects
Agriculture, Animals, Biodiversity, Forecasting, Humans, Ecosystem, Endangered Species, Mammals growth & development, Models, Biological
Abstract

Current levels of endangerment and historical trends of species and habitats are the main criteria used to direct conservation efforts globally. Estimates of future declines, which might indicate different priorities than past declines, have been limited by the lack of appropriate data and models. Given that much of conservation is about anticipating and responding to future threats, our inability to look forward at a global scale has been a major constraint on effective action. Here, we assess the geography and extent of projected future changes in suitable habitat for terrestrial mammals within their present ranges. We used a global earth-system model, IMAGE, coupled with fine-scale habitat suitability models and parametrized according to four global scenarios of human development. We identified the most affected countries by 2050 for each scenario, assuming that no additional conservation actions other than those described in the scenarios take place. We found that, with some exceptions, most of the countries with the largest predicted losses of suitable habitat for mammals are in Africa and the Americas. African and North American countries were also predicted to host the most species with large proportional global declines. Most of the countries we identified as future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss have little or no overlap with the present global conservation priorities, thus confirming the need for forward-looking analyses in conservation priority setting. The expected growth in human populations and consumption in hotspots of future mammal loss mean that local conservation actions such as protected areas might not be sufficient to mitigate losses. Other policies, directed towards the root causes of biodiversity loss, are required, both in Africa and other parts of the world.

Published
2011
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