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In shape-constrained nonparametric inference, it is often necessary to perform preliminary tests to verify whether a probability mass function (p.m.f.) satisfies qualitative constraints such as monotonicity, convexity or in general $k$-monotonicity. In this paper, we are interested in testing $k$-monotonicity of a compactly supported p.m.f. and we put our main focus on monotonicity and convexity; i.e., $k \in \{1,2\}$. We consider new testing procedures that are directly derived from the definition of $k$-monotonicity and rely exclusively on the empirical measure, as well as tests that are based on the projection of the empirical measure on the class of $k$-monotone p.m.f.s. The asymptotic behaviour of the introduced test statistics is derived and a simulation study is performed to assess the finite sample performance of all the proposed tests. Applications to real datasets are presented to illustrate the theory.

The distributional single index model is a semiparametric regression model in which the conditional distribution functions $P(Y \leq y | X = x) = F_0(\theta_0(x), y)$ of a real-valued outcome variable $Y$ depend on $d$-dimensional covariates $X$ through a univariate, parametric index function $\theta_0(x)$, and increase stochastically as $\theta_0(x)$ increases. We propose least squares approaches for the joint estimation of $\theta_0$ and $F_0$ in the important case where $\theta_0(x) = \alpha_0^{\top}x$ and obtain convergence rates of $n^{-1/3}$, thereby improving an existing result that gives a rate of $n^{-1/6}$. A simulation study indicates that the convergence rate for the estimation of $\alpha_0$ might be faster. Furthermore, we illustrate our methods in a real data application that demonstrates the advantages of shape restrictions in single index models.

With the planning of new ambitious gravitational wave (GW) observatories, fully controlled laboratory experiments on dynamic gravitation become more and more important. Such new experiments can provide new insights in potential dynamic effects such as gravitational shielding or energy flow and might contribute to bringing light into the mystery still surrounding gravity. Here we present a laboratory-based transmitter-detector experiment using two rotating bars as transmitter and a 42 Hz, high-Q bending beam resonator as detector. Using a highly precise phase control to synchronize the rotating bars, a dynamic gravitational field emerges that excites the bending motion with amplitudes up to 100 nm/s or 370 pm, which is a factor of 500 above the thermal noise. The two-transmitter design enables the investigation of different setup configurations. The detector movement is measured optically, using three commercial interferometers. Acoustical, mechanical, and electrical isolation, a temperature-stable environment, and lock-in detection are central elements of the setup. The moving load response of the detector is numerically calculated based on Newton's law of gravitation via discrete volume integration, showing excellent agreement between measurement and theory both in amplitude and phase. The near field gravitational energy transfer is 10$^{25}$ times higher than what is expected from GW analysis.

Consider the regression problem where the response $Y\in\mathbb{R}$ and the covariate $X\in\mathbb{R}^d$ for $d\geq 1$ are \textit{unmatched}. Under this scenario, we do not have access to pairs of observations from the distribution of $(X, Y)$, but instead, we have separate datasets $\{Y_i\}_{i=1}^n$ and $\{X_j\}_{j=1}^m$, possibly collected from different sources. We study this problem assuming that the regression function is linear and the noise distribution is known or can be estimated. We introduce an estimator of the regression vector based on deconvolution and demonstrate its consistency and asymptotic normality under an identifiability assumption. In the general case, we show that our estimator (DLSE: Deconvolution Least Squared Estimator) is consistent in terms of an extended $\ell_2$ norm. Using this observation, we devise a method for semi-supervised learning, i.e., when we have access to a small sample of matched pairs $(X_k, Y_k)$. Several applications with synthetic and real datasets are considered to illustrate the theory., Comment: 57 pages, 3 tables, 9 figures

We study a statistical framework for replicability based on a recently proposed quantitative measure of replication success, the sceptical $p$-value. A recalibration is proposed to obtain exact overall Type-I error control if the effect is null in both studies and additional bounds on the partial and conditional Type-I error rate, which represent the case where only one study has a null effect. The approach avoids the double dichotomization for significance of the two-trials rule and has larger project power to detect existing effects over both studies in combination. It can also be used for power calculations and requires a smaller replication sample size than the two-trials rule for already convincing original studies. We illustrate the performance of the proposed methodology in an application to data from the Experimental Economics Replication Project., Comment: Supporting Information is available after the references. Title of previous submission was "A statistical framework for replicability"

Recent spectacular results of gravitational waves obtained by the LIGO system, with frequencies in the 100 Hz regime, make corresponding laboratory experiments with full control over cause and effect of great importance. Dynamic measurements of gravitation in the laboratory have to date been scarce, due to difficulties in assessing non-gravitational crosstalk and the intrinsically weak nature of gravitational forces. In fact, fully controlled quantitative experiments have so far been limited to frequencies in the mHz regime. New experiments in gravity might also yield new physics, thereby opening avenues towards a theory that explains all of physics within one coherent framework. Here we introduce a new, fully-characterized experiment at three orders of magnitude higher frequencies. It allows experimenters to quantitatively determine the dynamic gravitational interaction between two parallel beams vibrating at 42 Hz in bending motion. The large amplitude vibration of the transmitter beam produces gravitationally-induced motion with amplitudes up to 1E-11 m of the resonant detector beam. The reliable measurement with sub-pm displacement resolution is made possible by a set-up which combines acoustical, mechanical and electrical isolation, a temperature-stable environment, heterodyne laser interferometry and lock-in detection. The interaction is quantitatively modelled based on Newton's theory. Our initial results agree with the theory to within about three percent in amplitude. Based on a power balance analysis, we determined the near-field gravitational energy flow from the transmitter to the detector to be 2.5 E-20 J/s, and to decay with distance as d-4. We expect our experiment to make significant progress in directions where current experimental evidence for dynamic gravitation is limited, such as the dynamic determination of G, inverse-square law, and gravitational shielding.

We consider so-called univariate unlinked (sometimes ``decoupled,'' or ``shuffled'') regression when the unknown regression curve is monotone. In standard monotone regression, one observes a pair $(X,Y)$ where a response $Y$ is linked to a covariate $X$ through the model $Y= m_0(X) + \epsilon$, with $m_0$ the (unknown) monotone regression function and $\epsilon$ the unobserved error (assumed to be independent of $X$). In the unlinked regression setting one gets only to observe a vector of realizations from both the response $Y$ and from the covariate $X$ where now $Y \stackrel{d}{=} m_0(X) + \epsilon$. There is no (observed) pairing of $X$ and $Y$. Despite this, it is actually still possible to derive a consistent non-parametric estimator of $m_0$ under the assumption of monotonicity of $m_0$ and knowledge of the distribution of the noise $\epsilon$. In this paper, we establish an upper bound on the rate of convergence of such an estimator under minimal assumption on the distribution of the covariate $X$. We discuss extensions to the case in which the distribution of the noise is unknown. We develop a second order algorithm for its computation, and we demonstrate its use on synthetic data. Finally, we apply our method (in a fully data driven way, without knowledge of the error distribution) on longitudinal data from the US Consumer Expenditure Survey., Comment: 60 pages; 3 figures

We construct new testing procedures for spherical and elliptical symmetry based on the characterization that a random vector $X$ with finite mean has a spherical distribution if and only if $\Ex[u^\top X | v^\top X] = 0$ holds for any two perpendicular vectors $u$ and $v$. Our test is based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic, and its rejection region is found via the spherically symmetric bootstrap. We show the consistency of the spherically symmetric bootstrap test using a general Donsker theorem which is of some independent interest. For the case of testing for elliptical symmetry, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic has an asymptotic drift term due to the estimated location and scale parameters. Therefore, an additional standardization is required in the bootstrap procedure. In a simulation study, the size and the power properties of our tests are assessed for several distributions and the performance is compared to that of several competing procedures., Comment: 41 pages

We consider least squares estimators of the finite regression parameter $\alpha$ in the single index regression model $Y=\psi(\alpha^T X)+\epsilon$, where $X$ is a $d$-dimensional random vector, $\E(Y|X)=\psi(\alpha^T X)$, and where $\psi$ is monotone. It has been suggested to estimate $\alpha$ by a profile least squares estimator, minimizing $\sum_{i=1}^n(Y_i-\psi(\alpha^T X_i))^2$ over monotone $\psi$ and $\alpha$ on the boundary $S_{d-1}$of the unit ball. Although this suggestion has been around for a long time, it is still unknown whether the estimate is $\sqrt{n}$ convergent. We show that a profile least squares estimator, using the same pointwise least squares estimator for fixed $\alpha$, but using a different global sum of squares, is $\sqrt{n}$-convergent and asymptotically normal. The difference between the corresponding loss functions is studied and also a comparison with other methods is given., Comment: 21 pages, 6 figures

We consider estimation in the single index model where the link function is monotone. For this model a profile least squares estimator has been proposed to estimate the unknown link function and index. Although it is natural to propose this procedure, it is still unknown whether it produces index estimates which converge at the parametric rate. We show that this holds if we solve a score equation corresponding to this least squares problem. Using a Lagrangian formulation, we show how one can solve this score equation without any reparametrization. This makes it easy to solve the score equations in high dimensions. We also compare our method with the Effective Dimension Reduction (EDR) and the Penalized Least Squares Estimator (PLSE) methods, both available on CRAN as R packages, and compare with link-free methods, where the covariates are ellipticallly symmetric., Comment: 31 pages, 6 figures, 2 tables

Based on the convex least-squares estimator, we propose two different procedures for testing convexity of a probability mass function supported on N with an unknown finite support. The procedures are shown to be asymptotically calibrated.

In this article, we consider the problem of estimating the index parameter $\alpha_0$ in the single index model $E[Y |X] = f_0(\alpha_0^T X)$ with $f_0$ the unknown ridge function defined on $\mathbb{R}$, $X$ a d-dimensional covariate and $Y$ the response. We show that when $X$ is Gaussian, then $\alpha_0$ can be consistently estimated by regressing the observed responses $Y_i$, $i = 1, . . ., n$ on the covariates $X_1, . . ., X_n$ after centering and rescaling. The method works without any additional smoothness assumptions on $f_0$ and only requires that $cov(f_0(\alpha_0^T X),\alpha_0^TX) \neq 0$, which is always satisfied by monotone and non-constant functions $f_0$. We show that our estimator is asymptotically normal and give the expression with its asymptotic variance. The approach is illustrated through a simulation study., Comment: The authors were made aware that a similar result already exists in the literature: "A generalized linear model with Gaussian regressor variables" (Brillinger, 1983)

In this article, we revisit the problem of estimating the unknown zero-symmetric distribution in a two-component location mixture model, considered in previous works, now under the assumption that the zero-symmetric distribution has a log-concave density. When consistent estimators for the shift locations and mixing probability are used, we show that the nonparametric log-concave Maximum Likelihood estimator (MLE) of both the mixed density and that of the unknown zero-symmetric component are consistent in the Hellinger distance. In case the estimators for the shift locations and mixing probability are $\sqrt n$-consistent, we establish that these MLE's converge to the truth at the rate $n^{-2/5}$ in the $L_1$ distance. To estimate the shift locations and mixing probability, we use the estimators proposed by \cite{hunteretal2007}. The unknown zero-symmetric density is efficiently computed using the \proglang{R} package \pkg{logcondens.mode}., Comment: 47 pages, 4 figures

In this article, we derive the weak limiting distribution of the least squares estimator (LSE) of a convex probability mass function (pmf) with a finite support. We show that it can be defined via a certain convex projection of a Gaussian vector. Furthermore, samples of any given size from this limit distribution can be generated using an efficient Dykstra-like algorithm.

We propose a new testing procedure for detecting localized departures from monotonicity of a signal embedded in white noise. In fact, we perform simultaneously several tests that aim at detecting departures from concavity for the integrated signal over various intervals of different sizes and localizations. Each of these local tests relies on estimating the distance between the restriction of the integrated signal to some interval and its least concave majorant. Our test can be easily implemented and is proved to achieve the optimal uniform separation rate simultaneously for a wide range of H\"{o}lderian alternatives. Moreover, we show how this test can be extended to a Gaussian regression framework with unknown variance. A simulation study confirms the good performance of our procedure in practice., Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/12-BEJ496 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm)

The k-monotone classes of densities defined on (0, \infty) have been known in the mathematical literature but were for the first time considered from a statistical point of view by Balabdaoui and Wellner (2007, 2010). In these works, the authors generalized the results established for monotone (k=1) and convex (k=2) densities by giving a characterization of the Maximum Likelihood and Least Square estimators (MLE and LSE) and deriving minimax bounds for rates of convergence. For k strictly larger than 2, the pointwise asymptotic behavior of the MLE and LSE studied by Balabdaoui and Wellner (2007) would show that the MLE and LSE attain the minimax lower bounds in a local pointwise sense. However, the theory assumes that a certain conjecture about the approximation error of a Hermite spline holds true. The main goal of the present note is to show why such a conjecture cannot be true. We also suggest how to bypass the conjecture and rebuild the key proofs in the limit theory of the estimators.

We show that the density of $Z=\mathop {\operatorname {argmax}}\{W(t)-t^2\}$, sometimes known as Chernoff's density, is log-concave. We conjecture that Chernoff's density is strongly log-concave or "super-Gaussian", and provide evidence in support of the conjecture., Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/12-BEJ483 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm)

The assumption of log-concavity is a flexible and appealing nonparametric shape constraint in distribution modelling. In this work, we study the log-concave maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of a probability mass function (pmf). We show that the MLE is strongly consistent and derive its pointwise asymptotic theory under both the well- and misspecified setting. Our asymptotic results are used to calculate confidence intervals for the true log-concave pmf. Both the MLE and the associated confidence intervals may be easily computed using the R package logcondiscr. We illustrate our theoretical results using recent data from the H1N1 pandemic in Ontario, Canada., Comment: 21 pages, 7 Figures

In this paper, we describe two computational methods for calculating the cumulative distribution function and the upper quantiles of the maximal difference between a Brownian bridge and its concave majorant. The first method has two different variants that are both based on a Monte Carlo approach, whereas the second uses the Gaver-Stehfest (GS) algorithm for numerical inversion of Laplace transform. If the former method is straightforward to implement, it is very much outperformed by the GS algorithm, which provides a very accurate approximation of the cumulative distribution as well as its upper quantiles. Our numerical work has a direct application in statistics: the maximal difference between a Brownian bridge and its concave majorant arises in connection with a nonparametric test for monotonicity of a density or regression curve on [0, 1]. Our results can be used to construct very accurate rejection region for this test at a given asymptotic level.

We provide a representation of the maximal difference between a standard Brownian bridge and its concave majorant on the unit interval, from which we deduce expressions for the distribution and density functions and moments of this difference. This maximal difference has an application in nonparametric statistics where it arises in testing monotonicity of a density or regression curve., Comment: 18 pages, 3 figures

In this paper, we consider the problem of finding the Least Squares estimators of two isotonic regression curves $g^\circ_1$ and $g^\circ_2$ under the additional constraint that they are ordered; e.g., $g^\circ_1 \le g^\circ_2$. Given two sets of $n$ data points $y_1, ..., y_n$ and $z_1, >...,z_n$ observed at (the same) design points, the estimates of the true curves are obtained by minimizing the weighted Least Squares criterion $L_2(a, b) = \sum_{j=1}^n (y_j - a_j)^2 w_{1,j}+ \sum_{j=1}^n (z_j - b_j)^2 w_{2,j}$ over the class of pairs of vectors $(a, b) \in \mathbb{R}^n \times \mathbb{R}^n $ such that $a_1 \le a_2 \le ...\le a_n $, $b_1 \le b_2 \le ...\le b_n $, and $a_i \le b_i, i=1, ...,n$. The characterization of the estimators is established. To compute these estimators, we use an iterative projected subgradient algorithm, where the projection is performed with a "generalized" pool-adjacent-violaters algorithm (PAVA), a byproduct of this work. Then, we apply the estimation method to real data from mechanical engineering., Comment: 23 pages, 2 figures. Second revised version according to reviewer comments

We establish limit theory for the Grenander estimator of a monotone density near zero. In particular we consider the situation when the true density $f_0$ is unbounded at zero, with different rates of growth to infinity. In the course of our study we develop new switching relations by use of tools from convex analysis. The theory is applied to a problem involving mixtures., Comment: 28 pages. See also: http://www.stat.washington.edu/www/research/reports/2009/tr554r1 http://www.stat.washington.edu/jaw/RESEARCH/PAPERS/available.html

We find limiting distributions of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of a log-concave density, that is, a density of the form $f_0=\exp\varphi_0$ where $\varphi_0$ is a concave function on $\mathbb{R}$. The pointwise limiting distributions depend on the second and third derivatives at 0 of $H_k$, the "lower invelope" of an integrated Brownian motion process minus a drift term depending on the number of vanishing derivatives of $\varphi_0=\log f_0$ at the point of interest. We also establish the limiting distribution of the resulting estimator of the mode $M(f_0)$ and establish a new local asymptotic minimax lower bound which shows the optimality of our mode estimator in terms of both rate of convergence and dependence of constants on population values., Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOS609 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)

Kiefer and Wolfowitz [Z. Wahrsch. Verw. Gebiete 34 (1976) 73--85] showed that if $F$ is a strictly curved concave distribution function (corresponding to a strictly monotone density $f$), then the Maximum Likelihood Estimator $\hat{F}_n$, which is, in fact, the least concave majorant of the empirical distribution function $\mathbb {F}_n$, differs from the empirical distribution function in the uniform norm by no more than a constant times $(n^{-1}\log n)^{2/3}$ almost surely. We review their result and give an updated version of their proof. We prove a comparable theorem for the class of distribution functions $F$ with convex decreasing densities $f$, but with the maximum likelihood estimator $\hat{F}_n$ of $F$ replaced by the least squares estimator $\widetilde{F}_n$: if $X_1,..., X_n$ are sampled from a distribution function $F$ with strictly convex density $f$, then the least squares estimator $\widetilde{F}_n$ of $F$ and the empirical distribution function $\mathbb {F}_n$ differ in the uniform norm by no more than a constant times $(n^{-1}\log n)^{3/5}$ almost surely. The proofs rely on bounds on the interpolation error for complete spline interpolation due to Hall [J. Approximation Theory 1 (1968) 209--218], Hall and Meyer [J. Approximation Theory 16 (1976) 105--122], building on earlier work by Birkhoff and de Boor [J. Math. Mech. 13 (1964) 827--835]. These results, which are crucial for the developments here, are all nicely summarized and exposited in de Boor [A Practical Guide to Splines (2001) Springer, New York]., Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/074921707000000256 in the IMS Lecture Notes Monograph Series (http://www.imstat.org/publications/lecnotes.htm) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)

We present a Hermite interpolation problem via splines of odd-degree which, to the best knowledge of the authors, has not been considered in the literature on interpolation via odd-degree splines. In this new interpolation problem, we conjecture that the interpolation error is bounded in the supremum norm independently of the locations of the knots. Given an integer k greater than or equal to 3, our spline interpolant is of degree 2k-1 and with 2k-4 (interior) knots. Simulations were performed to check the validity of the conjecture. We present strong numerical evidence in support of the conjecture for k=3, ..., 10 when the interpolated function belongs to C^{(2k)}[0,1], the class of 2k-times continuously differentiable functions on [0,1]. In this case, the worst interpolation error is proved to be attained by the perfect spline of degree 2k with the same knots as the spline interpolant. This interpolation problem arises naturally in nonparametric estimation of a multiply monotone density via Least Squares and Maximum Likehood methods., Comment: 28 pages. Submitted to Experimental Mathematics. See also http://www.stat.washington.edu/www/research/reports/2004/tr480.pdf http://www.stat.washington.edu/jaw/RESEARCH/PAPERS/available.html

We study the asymptotic behavior of the Maximum Likelihood and Least Squares Estimators of a $k$-monotone density $g_0$ at a fixed point $x_0$ when $k>2$. We find that the $j$th derivative of the estimators at $x_0$ converges at the rate $n^{-(k-j)/(2k+1)}$ for $j=0,...,k-1$. The limiting distribution depends on an almost surely uniquely defined stochastic process $H_k$ that stays above (below) the $k$-fold integral of Brownian motion plus a deterministic drift when $k$ is even (odd). Both the MLE and LSE are known to be splines of degree $k-1$ with simple knots. Establishing the order of the random gap $\tau_n^+-\tau_n^-$, where $\tau_n^{\pm}$ denote two successive knots, is a key ingredient of the proof of the main results. We show that this ``gap problem'' can be solved if a conjecture about the upper bound on the error in a particular Hermite interpolation via odd-degree splines holds., Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053607000000262 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)

Shape constrained densities are encountered in many nonparametric estimation problems. The classes of monotone or convex (and monotone) densities can be viewed as special cases of the classes of k-monotone densities. A density g is said to be k-monotone if its successive derivatives up to order k-2 are alternately negative or positive, with the k-2 derivative convex (or concave) according as k is even (or odd) respectively. g is simply nonincreasing if k=1. These classes of shape constrained densities bridge the gap between the classes of monotone (1-monotone) and convex decreasing (2-monotone) densities for which asymptotic results are known, and the class of completely monotone densities with k infinite. In this series of four papers we consider both (nonparametric) Maximum Likelihood estimators and Least Squares estimators of a k-monotone density. In this first part (part 1), we prove existence of the estimators and give characterizations. We also establish consistency properties, and show that the estimators are splines of order k (degree k-1) with simple knots. We further provide asymptotic minimax risk lower bounds for estimating a k-monotone density g_0 (x_0) and its derivatives g_0^{(j)}(x_0), for j=1, ..., k-1, at a fixed point x_0 under the assumption that the k-th derivative of g_0 at x_0 is non-zero., Comment: 60 pages. Submitted to Annals of Statistics. See also http://www.stat.washington.edu/www/research/reports/2004/tr459.pdf http://www.stat.washington.edu/jaw/RESEARCH/PAPERS/available.html