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Bayesian inference is employed to precisely evaluate single crystal elastic properties of novel γ- γ′ Co- and CoNi-based superalloys from simple and non-destructive resonant ultrasound spectroscopy (RUS) measurements. Nine alloys from three Co-, CoNi-, and Ni-based alloy classes were evaluated in the fully aged condition, with one alloy per class also evaluated in the solution heat-treated condition. Comparisons are made between the elastic properties of the three alloy classes and among the alloys of a single class, with the following trends observed. A monotonic rise in the c44 (shear) elastic constant by a total of 12 pct is observed between the three alloy classes as Co is substituted for Ni. Elastic anisotropy (A) is also increased, with a large majority of the nearly 13 pct increase occurring after Co becomes the dominant constituent. Together the five CoNi alloys, with Co:Ni ratios from 1:1 to 1.5:1, exhibited remarkably similar properties with an average A 1.8 pct greater than the Ni-based alloy CMSX-4. Custom code demonstrating a substantial advance over previously reported methods for RUS inversion is also reported here for the first time. CmdStan-RUS is built upon the open-source probabilistic programing language of Stan and formulates the inverse problem using Bayesian methods. Bayesian posterior distributions are efficiently computed with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), while initial parameterization is randomly generated from weakly informative prior distributions. Remarkably robust convergence behavior is demonstrated across multiple independent HMC chains in spite of initial parameterization often very far from actual parameter values. Experimental procedures are substantially simplified by allowing any arbitrary misorientation between the specimen and crystal axes, as elastic properties and misorientation are estimated simultaneously.

Bayesian modeling and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) are utilized to formulate a robust algorithm capable of simultaneously estimating anisotropic elastic properties and crystallographic orientation of a specimen from a list of measured resonance frequencies collected via Resonance Ultrasound Spectroscopy (RUS). Unlike typical optimization procedures which yield point estimates of the unknown parameters, computing a Bayesian posterior yields probability distributions for the unknown parameters, and HMC is an efficient way to compute this posterior. The algorithms described are demonstrated on RUS data collected from two parallelepiped specimens of structural metal alloys. First, the elastic constants for a specimen of fine-grain polycrystalline Ti-6Al-4 V with random crystallographic texture and isotropic elastic symmetry are estimated. Second, the elastic constants and crystallographic orientation for a single crystal Ni-based superalloy CMSX-4 specimen are accurately determined, using only measurements of the specimen geometry, mass, and resonance frequencies. The unique contributions of this paper are as follows: the application of HMC for sampling the Bayesian posterior of a probabilistic RUS model, and the procedure for simultaneous estimation of elastic constants and lattice-specimen misorientation. Compared to previous approaches these algorithms demonstrate superior convergence behavior, particularly when the initial parameterization is unknown, and enable substantially simplified experimental procedures.

We present StochSS: Stochastic Simulation as a Service, an integrated development environment for modeling and simulation of both deterministic and discrete stochastic biochemical systems in up to three dimensions. An easy to use graphical user interface enables researchers to quickly develop and simulate a biological model on a desktop or laptop, which can then be expanded to incorporate increasing levels of complexity. StochSS features state-of-the-art simulation engines. As the demand for computational power increases, StochSS can seamlessly scale computing resources in the cloud. In addition, StochSS can be deployed as a multi-user software environment where collaborators share computational resources and exchange models via a public model repository. We demonstrate the capabilities and ease of use of StochSS with an example of model development and simulation at increasing levels of complexity.

Statistical models can involve implicitly defined quantities, such as solutions to nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs), that unavoidably need to be numerically approximated in order to evaluate the model. The approximation error inherently biases statistical inference results, but the amount of this bias is generally unknown and often ignored in Bayesian parameter inference. We propose a computationally efficient method for verifying the reliability of posterior inference for such models, when the inference is performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We validate the efficiency and reliability of our workflow in experiments using simulated and real data and different ODE solvers. We highlight problems that arise with commonly used adaptive ODE solvers and propose robust and effective alternatives, which, accompanied by our workflow, can now be taken into use without losing reliability of the inferences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]