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Background: Pain at multiple sites is prevalent among older people. However, studies investigating the relationship between pain and falls focus largely on single‐site pain. Aim: To examine the association between pain at multiple sites and falls among community‐dwelling older Australians. Methods: Participants aged >60 years were randomly selected from the electoral roll. Falls were recorded prospectively over 12 months. Pain at multiple sites was assessed using a questionnaire. The total number of painful sites was calculated. Widespread pain was defined as pain in the upper limb, lower limb and in the axial skeletal region, with moderate to severe pain in at least one region. Log multinomial regression, with adjustment for confounders, was used to estimate whether widespread pain or number of painful sites increased the risk of a single (one fall) and multiple falls (≥2 falls). Results: There were 299 participants (43% women; mean age 72 ± 7.0 years). The mean (standard deviation) of falls was 0.8 ± 1.5. The frequencies of single and multiple falls were 23% (n = 68) and 16% (n = 49) respectively. A higher number of painful sites was associated with an elevated risk of a single fall (relative risk (RR) = 1.08; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.96–1.27) and multiple falls (RR = 1.20; 95% CI: 1.02–1.41). However, the risk of multiple, but not single fall was substantial and statistically significant. Furthermore, compared with those without pain, individuals with widespread pain had an elevated risk of single (RR = 1.87; 95% CI: 0.80–5.09) and multiple falls (RR = 3.94; 95% CI: 1.15–13.51). However, the magnitude of effects of single fall was smaller and not statistically significant. Conclusions: Falls risk should be ascertained for older people with pain, irrespective of whether they present with a single or multiple sites pain. Nevertheless, older adults with multisite pain may require additional attention as they appear to have a significantly elevated risk of multiple falls. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study aims to describe the relationships between physical activity (PA), body composition, and multimorbidity over 10 years.Method: Participants (N = 373; 49% women; average age 61.3 ± 6.7 years) were followed for 10 years. Multimorbidity was defined by self-report as the presence of 2 or more of 12 listed chronic conditions. PA (steps per day) at baseline was assessed by pedometer, handgrip strength (HGS) by dynamometer, and appendicular lean mass (ALM) and total body fat mass by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. Relative HGS and ALM were calculated by dividing each body mass index (BMI). Regression cubic splines were used to assess evidence for a nonlinear relationship.Results: After 10 years, 45% participants had multimorbidity. There was a nonlinear relationship between PA and multimorbidity-PA was associated with lower multimorbidity risk among individuals who engaged in <10 000 steps/d (relative risk [RR] = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.85, 0.97, per 1 000 steps/d), but not among those who participated in ≥10 000 steps/d (RR = 1.04, 95% CI: 0.93, 1.09, per 1 000 steps/d). Higher BMI (RR = 1.05, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.08, per kg/m2) and fat mass (RR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.04, per kg), and lower relative HGS (RR = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.77, 0.94, per 0.1 psi/kg/m2) and ALM (RR = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.88, 0.98, per 0.1 kg/kg/m2) were linearly associated with a higher risk of multimorbidity. Absolute HGS and ALM were not significantly associated with multimorbidity.Discussion: These findings highlight the potential clinical importance of maintaining adequate levels of PA and of reducing adiposity and maintaining muscle function for minimizing the risk of multimorbidity in older adults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to assess whether older adults with low muscle mass or strength, in the presence of obesity, have an increased risk of knee (TKR) and hip replacement (THR) over 13 years. 1082 community-dwelling older adults (51% women; mean age 62.9 ± 7.5 years) were studied at baseline and multiple time points over 13 years. The incidence of TKR and THR was determined by data linkage to National Joint Replacement Registry. Appendicular lean and fat mass were measured using DXA. Lower-limb muscle strength (LMS) was assessed by dynamometer. Low muscle mass and strength were defined as the lowest sex-specific tertiles for appendicular lean mass (adjusted for height and total body fat mass) and lower-limb strength, respectively. Obesity was defined as the highest sex-specific tertile for total body fat mass. Competing risk regression models were used to estimate the sub-distribution hazard ratio (SHR) for TKR and THR. Over 13 years of follow-up, 6.8% (n = 74/1082) of the participants had a TKR and 4.7% (n = 50/1066) had THR. Participants with the combination of obesity and low muscle strength (SHR   3.36, 95% CI 1.50, 7.53) but low muscle mass (SHR 1.11, 95% CI 0.52, 2.40) had a significantly increased risk of TKR, compared to individuals with neither obesity nor low muscle mass/strength. However, obesity with low muscle strength did not lead to a significantly greater risk of TKR compared to having low muscle strength or obesity alone. There was no evidence for an association between obesity with low muscle mass or strength and THR (all p > 0.05). This finding suggests that combining muscle and fat assessments to predict the future risk of TKR is no better than each condition on its own. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Osteodynapenia but not osteosarcopenia increased the risk of fracture. • Osteodynapenia did not lead to a significantly greater fracture risk compared to having osteopenia or dynapenia alone. • Osteosarcopenia but not osteodynapenia increased the risk of mortality. • Osteosarcopenia did not lead to a significantly greater mortality risk compared to having osteopenia or sacropenia alone. Abstract Aim: To determine whether older adults with low muscle mass (sarcopenia) and strength (dynapenia), in the presence of osteoporosis/osteopenia, have an increased risk of fracture and mortality over 10 years, compared to those with low muscle or low bone mass alone or with neither condition. Methods: 1032 participants (52% women; mean age 62.9 ± 7.4 years) were prospectively followed for 10 years. Mortality was ascertained from the death registry and fractures were self-reported. Baseline appendicular lean mass (ALM) was assessed using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and normalised to body mass index (BMI). Hand grip strength (HGS) was assessed by dynamometer. Osteosarcopenia and osteodynapenia were defined as having T-scores of the total hip and/or lumbar spine bone mineral density (BMD) < –1 combined with being in the lowest 20% of the sex-specific distribution for ALM/BMI or HGS respectively. Results: Incident fracture risk was significantly higher in participants who were osteodynapenic (RR = 2.07, 95% CI: 1.26–3.39), dynapenic alone (RR = 1.74, 95% CI: 1.05–2.87), and osteopenic alone (RR = 1.63, 95% CI: 1.15–2.31), compared to those without dynapenia or osteopenia. Mortality risk was significantly higher only in participants with osteosarcopenia (RR = 1.49, 95% CI: 1.01–2.21) compared to those without sarcopenia or osteopenia. However, osteosarcopenia and osteodynapenia did not lead to a significantly greater fracture or mortality risk compared to having these conditions on their own. Conclusion: These findings suggest that the combined effect of osteopenia and sarcopenia or dynapenia on fracture and mortality risk, respectively, may not be greater than that of each individual condition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Aims This study aims to describe the associations of low muscle mass, handgrip (HGS) and lower-limb muscle strength (LMS) with health-related quality of life (HRQoL) over 10 years in community-dwelling older adults. Methods Participants (N = 1002; 51% women; mean age 63 ± 7.4 years) were prospectively followed for 10 years. HRQoL was measured using the validated assessment of quality of life (AQoL) instrument. Appendicular lean mass (ALM) was assessed using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry and normalized to body mass index (BMI). HGS and LMS were assessed using dynamometers. Low ALM/BMI (ALM/BMI LOW), LMS (LMS LOW) and HGS (HGS LOW) at baseline were defined as the lowest 20% of the sex-specific distribution for each measure. Linear mixed effect regression models, adjusting for confounders, were used to estimate the association between ALM/BMI LOW , LMS LOW , and HGS LOW at baseline and HRQoL over 10 years. Results Participants with LMS LOW (β = −0.061, 95% CI: −0.089, −0.033) and women (β = −0.089, 95% CI: −0.129, −0.049) but not men (β = −0.023, 95% CI: −0.064, 0.019) with HGS LOW had clinically meaningful reductions in HRQoL over 10 years compared to those with normal strength. There was a weaker but statistically significant association between ALM/BMI LOW and 10-year HRQoL (β = −0.038, 95% CI: −0.068, −0.008). Conclusions Lower-limb muscle strength and handgrip strength (in women only), which can be easily measured in clinical practice, appear more important than muscle mass for HRQoL. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: the use of bed nets is a well-recognized and cost-effective preventive measure against malaria. However, little is known about factors associated with the use of bed nets among older people in Nigeria. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the determinants of bed net use among older Nigerian adults. Methods: data from the first wave of the Nigeria General Household Survey-Panel were used, which included 3,439 participants aged 50 years and above. Log-binomial models were used to model the association between participants' sociodemographic characteristics and the use of bed nets. Results: the frequency of bed net use was 26%. The adjusted prevalence ratio (PR) of bed net use was lower in women (PR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.73-0.96), older age groups (60-69 years: PR=0.85, 95% CI:0.75-0.97; 70 years and above: PR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.69-0.94), femaleheaded households (PR = 0.69, 95% CI: 0.53-0.89) and among those in the highest tertiles of per-capita household expenditure (PR=0.77, 95% CI: 0.66-0.90). However, the frequency of bed net use was higher among older adults residing in the rural areas (PR = 1.84, 95% CI: 1.55-2.18) and those who reported never having attended school (PR=1.15, 95% CI: 1.01-1.30). Conclusion: the prevalence of bed net use among older adults is lower compared to previously reported data for younger adults, suggesting an increased risk of the older adults of exposure to malaria. Female sex, age ≥ 60 years, level of education, economic status, and rural vs urban residence were important determinants of bed net use among older adults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims To describe the longitudinal associations between physiological falls risk, and between-person and within-person effects of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD), physical activity (PA), knee pain and dysfunction in community-dwelling older people. Methods Data for 1053 participants (51% women; mean age 63 ± 7.4 years) studied at baseline, 2.5, 5, and 10 years were analysed. Falls risk (Z-score) was measured using the Physiological Profile Assessment. Knee pain and dysfunction were assessed using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis index (WOMAC). Moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) was measured using accelerometer. Linear mixed-effect regression models, with adjustment for confounders, were used to estimate the association between physiological falls risk and between-person and within-person effects of PA, 25OHD and WOMAC score. Results Between-person effects showed that 10-year average physiological falls risk was lower in participants who had a higher 10-year average 25OHD (β = −0.005 per nmol/l, 95% CI: −0.008, −0.002), log-MVPA (β = −0.16 per minute, 95% CI: −0.22, −0.10) and lower mean WOMAC score (β = 0.005 per-unit score, 95% CI: 0.003, 0.01). Within-person effects showed that a higher physiological falls risk at any time-point was associated with higher than average WOMAC score (β = 0.002 per-unit score, 95% CI: 0.0003, 0.004) and lower than average log-MVPA (β = −0.15 per minute, 95% CI: −0.24, −0.06), but not 25OHD, at the same time-point. Conclusion Having higher WOMAC global score above an individual's average increases the risk of falling, whereas, increasing one's own MVPA level further reduces their risk of falling. The presence of between-person but not within-person associations for 25OHD suggests the former may be confounded by other factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To describe the associations of between-person and within-person variability in serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), physical activity (PA), and knee pain and dysfunction with muscle mass, strength, and muscle quality over 10 years in community-dwelling older adults.Method: Participants (N = 1033; 51% women; mean age 63 ± 7.4 years) were measured at baseline, 2.5, 5, and 10 years. Lower limb lean mass (LLM) was assessed using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry, lower limb muscle strength (LMS) using a dynamometer, and lower limb muscle quality (LMQ) calculated as LMS/LLM. Knee pain and dysfunction were assessed using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis (WOMAC) index. PA was measured using pedometers. Linear-mixed effect regression models, with adjustment for confounders, were used to estimate the association of within-person and between-person variability in PA, 25(OH)D, and WOMAC scores with muscle mass, strength, and muscle quality.Results: Both between-person and within-person increases in PA were associated with LLM, LMS, and LMQ (all P < 0.05). Within-person and between-person increases in knee pain and dysfunction were associated with LLS and LMQ, but not with LLM (all P < 0.05). Between-person effects showed that higher average 25(OH)D was associated with a higher 10-year average LLM, LMS, and LMQ (all P < 0.05), whereas within-person increases in average 25(OH)D were associated with a higher LMS and LMQ, but not with LLM.Conclusions: Variability in 25(OH)D, pain, and dysfunction within an individual over time is related to muscle changes in that individual. Increasing one's own PA level further increases muscle mass, strength, and quality supporting the clinical recommendation of promoting PA to reduce age-related muscle loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Orofacial cleft has a worldwide distribution but it is peculiar in the developing countries due to poor healthcare facility with resultant high incidence of unoperated adult cleft. Various model of surgical mission by foreign experts had existed to combat this menace. The indigenous rotatory model by Cleft & facial deformity foundation is hereby presented. Methods: Carrying out an outreach programme in a rural area begins with the identification of a hospital with optimum facility, followed by effective awareness campaign, then a pre-surgical meeting with the hospital management. Personnel, equipment and materials were mobilised to the site while surgery usually lasted one week. Results: Seventeen outreach programmes were carried out in 10 different hospitals from March 2011 to June 2017. There were 546 orofacial cleft patients, 280 (51.3%) males and 266 (48.7%) females. The age ranged between 1 week to 70years with a mean age ± (SD) of 9.3±11.5. Four hundred and forty eight (82.1%) of the cleft patients were operated. Three hundred and twenty two (59.0%) patients were treated under general anaesthesia while 126 (23.1%) were treated under local anaesthesia. Eight surgeons and 4 anaesthetics were trained during the study period with several local practitioners benefitting from exposure to standard practice. Standard techniques were employed for cheiloplasty and palatoplasty. Minor complications were recorded with one mortality. Conclusion: This model is an effective and efficient way of reaching out to the poor patients with orofacial cleft. Effective mobilization, large volume of safe and quality surgery, easy knowledge transfer and possibility of patient review are some of its advantages. With regular training and funding, it could be an effective way of minimising ignorance and eradicating adult cleft in Nigeria and other developing societies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Previous studies in Nigeria have documented significant association between maternal education and child immunization. However, little is known about the pathway through which maternal education improves immunization uptake. This study aims to examine whether maternal literacy and socioeconomic status mediates the relationship between maternal education and complete immunization coverage in children. Methods: Nationally representative data from the first wave of the Nigeria General Household Survey-Panel were used, which includes 661 children aged one year and below. Regression analyses were used to model the association between maternal education and child's immunization uptake; we then examined whether maternal literacy and household economic status mediates this association. Results: Of the 661 children, 40% had complete immunization. The prevalence ratio (PR) of complete immunization in children whose mothers were educated versus those whose mothers were not educated was 1.44 (95% CI: 1.16-1.77). Maternal literacy substantially reduced the estimated association between maternal education and complete immunization by 90%, whereas household economic status reduced the estimates by 27%. Conclusion: These findings suggest that complete immunization was higher in children whose mothers were educated, partly because maternal education leads to acquisition of literacy skills and better health-seeking behavior which then improves immunization uptake for their children. Socioeconomic status is an alternative pathway but with less substantial indirect effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Mortality statistics using a single underlying cause of death (UC) are key health indicators. Rising multimorbidity and chronic disease mean that deaths increasingly involve multiple conditions. However, additional causes reported on death certificates are rarely integrated into mortality indicators, partly due to complexities in data and methods. This study aimed to assess trends and patterns in cause-related mortality in Australia, integrating multiple causes (MC) of death. Methods Deaths (n  = 1 773 399) in Australia (2006–17) were mapped to 136 ICD-10-based groups and MC indicators applied. Age-standardized cause-related rates (deaths/100 000) based on the UC (ASRUC) were compared with rates based on any mention of the cause (ASRAM) using rate ratios (RR = ASRAM/ASRUC) and to rates based on weighting multiple contributing causes (ASRW). Results Deaths involved on average 3.4 causes in 2017; the percentage with >4 causes increased from 20.9 (2006) to 24.4 (2017). Ischaemic heart disease (ASRUC = 73.3, ASRAM = 135.8, ASRW = 63.5), dementia (ASRUC = 51.1, ASRAM = 98.1, ASRW = 52.1) and cerebrovascular diseases (ASRUC = 39.9, ASRAM = 76.7, ASRW = 33.5) ranked as leading causes by all methods. Causes with high RR included hypertension (ASRUC = 2.2, RR = 35.5), atrial fibrillation (ASRUC = 8.0, RR = 6.5) and diabetes (ASRUC = 18.5, RR = 3.5); the corresponding ASRW were 12.5, 12.6 and 24.0, respectively. Renal failure, atrial fibrillation and hypertension ranked among the 10 leading causes by ASRAM and ASRW but not by ASRUC. Practical considerations in working with MC data are discussed. Conclusions Despite the similarities in leading causes under the three methods, with integration of MC several preventable diseases emerged as leading causes. MC analyses offer a richer additional perspective for population health monitoring and policy development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Four fifths of deaths in Australia involve multiple causes, but statistics typically use a single underlying cause of death (UC). The UC approach alone is insufficient for understanding the impact of non-underlying causes and identifying comorbid disease associations at death. Analysis of multiple causes of death (MC) is needed to measure the impact of all causes. We described MC patterns, considering cause-of-death coding and certification practices in Australia. Methods Using deaths registered in Australia from 2006 to 2017 (n = 1773525) coded to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) and an extended classification (n = 136 causes) based on a World Health Organization short list, we described MCoD data by cause. Age-standardised rates based on UC and MC were compared using the standardised ratio of multiple to underlying causes (SRMU) to estimate the contribution of the cause to mortality compared to using the UC approach. Comorbidity was explored using the cause of death association indicator (CDAI) to compare the observed joint frequency of a contributory-underlying cause combined with expected frequency of the contributory cause (with any UC). Results On average 3.4 conditions caused each death and 24.4% of deaths had 5 plus causes. Largest SRMUs were for genitourinary diseases (8.0), blood diseases (7.8) and musculoskeletal conditions (6.7). CDAIs showed high associations between, for example, accidental alcohol and opioid poisoning, septicaemia and skin infections, and traumatic brain injury and falls. Conclusions MC indicators enhance measures of mortality and reassess the role of causes of death for descriptive and analytical epidemiology. Key messages This research demonstrates the value of MC analysis for Australian mortality data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Mortality reporting and research are typically focused on a single underlying cause of death (UCoD) selected from multiple reported causes. The need to incorporate multiple causes of death (MCoD) in mortality statistics is now recognised internationally, but there is scant methodological work to guide analytical approaches. This review aims to identify and appraise current methods and practices used to analyse MCoD data. Methods The Web of Science, Medline, Pubmed and Scopus (from inception to December 2019) were queried. Studies reporting MCoD alone or in comparison with single UCoD were included. The review is supplemented by qualitative interview with international experts. Results 3491 studies were identified; 141 full texts were included in the review. The measures usually estimated when analysing MCoD can be broadly categorised into descriptive measures (n = 93 studies), measures of associations between diseases (n = 46 studies) and advanced statistical methods (n = 11 studies). Descriptive statistics commonly used include standardized ratio of multiple to underlying cause (SRMU) and mortality rates based on any mention of a disease. Approaches used to assess measures of associations between diseases include the Cause-of-Death Association Indicator (CDAI) and social network analysis. The advanced statistical methods include weighting MCoD and lethal defect-wear model of mortality. Audit results will be discussed. Conclusions This review provides a comprehensive and updated summary of methodological approaches used to analyse MCoD data. The merit of each analytical framework is discussed. Key messages More work is needed to develop methodological frameworks that could be used to support routine consideration of MCoD in practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• In addition to inter-individual differences, intra-individual variability in physical activity is associated with knee pain and functional limitation. • When participants engaged in more physical activity than their average level, they had lower knee pain and functional limitation. • Conversely, having higher functional limitations compared with an individual's average was associated with lower levels of physical activity. To describe the associations between interindividual (between-person) and intraindividual (within-person) variability in physical activity (PA) and knee pain and functional limitation among older adults. We also investigated the potential bidirectional association of between-person and within-person variability in knee pain and functional limitation with PA. Participants (N = 1064; 51% women; mean age 63 ± 7.4 years) were measured at baseline, 2.5, and 5 years. PA was measured using pedometers. Knee pain and functional limitation were assessed using the WOMAC scale. A two-part hurdle model, with adjustment for confounders, estimated the association of between-person and within-person variability in PA with knee pain/functional limitation (as the outcome). Linear mixed effect regression models described the association of between-person and within-person variability in knee pain and functional limitation with PA (as the outcome). Between-person effects showed that participants with a higher 5-year average PA had lower average WOMAC scores (β= –1.17, 95% CI: –1.82, –0.51). Within-person effects showed that at time-points when participants had a higher PA level than average, they also had lower WOMAC scores (β= –0.85, 95% CI: –1.36, –0.35). Conversely, both between-person (β= –15.6, 95% CI: –22.5, –8.8) and within-person increase (β= –7.4, 95% CI: –13.5, –1.4) in WOMAC scores were associated with lower PA. These findings suggest that PA and knee pain/dysfunctional contribute to the development of one another. Pain can lead to changes in inter- and intraindividual PA levels, but the reverse is also possible – changes in PA results in changes in inter- and intraindividual pain/dysfunctional levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There is increasing use of complementary and alternative medicines (CAMs) alone or as an adjuvant therapy to conventional medicines in osteoarthritis (OA) patients. Objectives: This study aimed to describe the prevalence and correlates of the use of CAMs among community‐dwelling older adults. Methods: Data from the Tasmania Older Adult Cohort Study (TASOAC, n = 1099) were used to describe the prevalence of CAM use. Correlates of CAM use were assessed by comparing CAM users and non‐users. To further assess correlates of CAM use, participants with at least one joint with pain were classified into four categories: CAM‐only, analgesics‐only, co‐therapy, and "neither CAMs nor analgesics" (NCNA). Results: In all, 385 (35.0%) of our participants reported use of CAMs, among which vitamins/minerals were used most (22.6%, n = 232). Compared with CAM non‐users, CAM users were more likely to be female, were less likely to be overweight, were better educated, had more joints with OA, had fewer WOMAC scores, and did more steps per day. Among participants with any joint pain, the CAM‐only group were less likely to be overweight, consumed more alcohol, had higher quality of life, had more steps per day, and had fewer pain‐related symptoms compared with the analgesic‐only group. Conclusion: Complementary and alternative medicines were commonly used among Tasmanian older adults, with 35% of the population using CAMs either alone or in combination with conventional analgesics. CAM users were more likely to be female, be better educated, have more joints with OA, and had healthier lifestyles, including lower body mass index and higher number of steps per day. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Using a qualitative design this study aimed to (1) explore the experience of people living with osteoarthritis (OA), (2) gain an understanding of their navigation of the health system and, (3) explore their opinions on the role of exercise and joint replacement surgery for the management of OA. Methods: Purposive sampling was used to recruit 26 participants with knee OA, aged 45 years and over, from Tasmania, Australia. Semi‐structured interviews were audio‐recorded, transcribed, coded, and thematically analysed to document participant understanding and experience of OA and their opinions on the role of exercise and surgery in managing OA. Results: Of the 26 participants, 80% (n = 21) were female with a mean age of 66 years. The main theme identified was that individuals with knee OA were navigating a maze of OA treatments. Three related subthemes were that participants: (i) perceived their general practitioner did not have an ongoing role in their OA care, (ii) self‐directed their management and, (iii) sampled from a 'smorgasbord' of treatment options, including low‐value care options. Two other major themes were: the role of exercise for OA management, and surgery as a last resort. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that OA patients may not be choosing consistent, high‐value care for their OA. This highlights the importance of an evidence‐based multi‐disciplinary approach to guide patients to self‐manage their OA and support their navigation of the health system. Reducing emphasis on the pathway to surgery and streamlining access to conservative management strategies may assist people to receive high‐value care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Mortality statistics are typically based on a single underlying cause of death (UCoD). Although UCoD provides a useful construct, the relevance of assuming that a single disease caused the death is diminishing, especially with increased life expectancy and high proportions of deaths in older ages from chronic/degenerative diseases. Focussing on common underlying causes of death in Australia, we quantified mortality incorporating weighting strategies for multiple causes of death (MCoD). Methods All deaths registered in Australia from 2015-2017 (478,396 deaths) and coded using International Classification of Diseases Version 10 were classified using an extended cause list (n = 136 causes) based on a World Health Organization short list. Age-standardised rates (ASR) were estimated using three weighting methods: (1) traditional approach using UCoD alone; (2) UCoD and associated causes of death (ACoDs) equally weighted and (3) UCoD weighted 0.5 arbitrarily and remaining 0.5 apportioned to the remaining ACoDs. Results Common UCoD were ischaemic heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, dementia; 57671, 31515 and 27377 deaths respectively. There were substantial changes in ASR depending on the weighting method used. Variation in mortality patterns estimated using the three weighting methods and challenges to further refinement of the weighting strategy will be discussed. Conclusions Mortality indicators incorporating MCoD enhance traditional measures of mortality and provide a means to reassess the role of diseases in causing death. Further disease specific methods are required to refine current weighting strategies. Key messages Weighting strategies for are useful for quantifying mortality incorporating MCoD, but methodological challenges exist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The contribution of cerebral small vessel disease (cSVD) to the pathogenesis of frailty remains uncertain. We aimed to examine the associations between cSVD with progression of frailty in a population-based study of older people.Methods: People aged between 60 and 85 years were randomly selected form the electoral roll to participate in the Tasmanian Study of Cognition and Gait. Participants underwent self-reported questionnaires, objective gait, cognitive and sensorimotor testing over three phases ranging between 2005 and 2012. These data were used to calculate a 41-item frailty index (FI) at three time points. Baseline brain magnetic resonance imaging was performed on all participants to measure cSVD. Generalized mixed models were used to examine associations between baseline cSVD and progression of frailty, adjusted for confounders of age, sex, level of education, and total intracranial volume.Results: At baseline (n = 388) mean age was 72 years (SD = 7.0), 44% were female, and the median FI score was 0.20 (interquartile range [IQR] 0.12, 0.27). In fully adjusted models higher burden of baseline white matter hyperintensity (WMH) was associated with frailty progression over 4.4 years (β = 0.03, 95% CI: 0.01, 0.05; p = .004) independent of other SVD markers. Neither baseline infarcts (p = .23), nor microbleeds at baseline (p = .65) were associated with progression of frailty.Conclusions: We provide evidence for an association between baseline WMHs and progression of frailty. Our findings add to a growing body of literature suggesting WMH is a marker for frailty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Key contact person Dr Grace Joshy, Fellow, Research School of Population Health, Australian National University. Focus and outcomes for participants Mortality statistics are typically based on a single underlying cause of death (UCoD), derived from multiple conditions on the death certificate, and have provided critical evidence for policy and practice for over a century. There have been radical shifts in patterns of death in the past couple of decades; deaths in older ages are increasingly from chronic and degenerative diseases. The relevance of assuming that a single disease is causing the death is diminishing, especially with an aging population structure and increasing life expectancy. This symposium will enable participants to understand the complexities associated with mortality reporting/coding, strengths and limitations of available statistical methods for using multiple causes of death (MCoD) and the importance of quantifying mortality incorporating MCoD. Rationale for the symposium, including for its inclusion in the Congress The use of a single UCoD rather than MCoD means that vast amounts of potentially useful data are largely ignored, which is likely to bias mortality estimates (including under- and over-reporting of the importance of certain causes of death). Despite global recognition of the urgent need to better integrate data on MCoD into mortality statistics, use of these data are challenging and limited. Complexities arise from the way mortality information is reported on death certificates and coded to form mortality collections; limited understanding of available statistical methods also adds to the complexity. International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision (ICD-10) has been translated into 43 languages and it is being used by over 100 countries to report mortality data, a primary indicator of health status. The 2018 release of the 11th revision of the International Classification of Diseases, enriching data on multiple parameters including comorbidity, confers further urgency and a unique opportunity to optimise the use of MCoD in mortality reporting. The World Congress of Epidemiology 2020 will provide a unique platform for wider discussions on the challenges and opportunities for using MCoD data. The symposium will provide a deeper understanding and enhanced the use of MCoD data. The speakers are engaged in cutting-edge NHMRC-funded research on mortality incorporating MCoD and development of novel statistical methods. Presentation program The symposium will feature presentations from six speakers. Current mortality data constructs: strengths and limitations of the underlying causes of death by Mr James Eynstone-Hinkins, Director of Health and Vital Statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics. There are complexities around death certification, coding rules and the automated processing to select and code the underlying cause for each registered death. Strengths and limitations of the underlying causes of death will be discussed. MCoD: complexities, existing uses and future enhancements in classification by Ms Lauren Moran, Assistant Director of the Health and Vital Statistics Section at the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The presentation will describe some of the complexities associated with the rich MCoD data collection, its existing uses and future enhancements in classification and compilation. Quantifying mortality using MCoD: a review of existing methods and practice by Dr Saliu Balogun, Research Fellow at the Australian National University. A comprehensive literature review and audit summarising of the methodological approaches currently used to analyse MCoD data will be presented. The merits and limitations of the different analytical frameworks will be discussed. Mortality reporting incorporating MCoD: examples using Australia mortality collection 2006-2017 by Ms Karen Bishop, Research Fellow at the Australian National University. Data for 1.8 million deaths registered in 2006–2017 will be used with an extended classification of 136 causes of death. Standard mortality indicators such as age-standardised rate ratios of multiple to UCoD and cause of death association indicator will be used to outline the relative contribution of MCoD (vs UCoD) to mortality and the strength of comorbid disease associations. Survival analysis methods for modelling multi-cause mortality by Dr Margarita Moreno-Betancur ARC DECRA fellow, and Senior Research Fellow at The University of Melbourne and the Murdoch Children's Research Institute. This work developed the first formal survival analysis methods for modelling multiple-cause mortality, based on weighting methods that allow exploitation of all the readily-available data from death certificates. These methods enable the estimation of mortality rates for descriptive purposes as well as the conduct of Cox-type regression analyses for explanatory analyses. Pragmatic weighting strategies for MCoD: challenges and opportunities by Dr Grace Joshy, Senior Research Fellow at the Australian National University. Three weighting methods will be applied to the Australian mortality data: 1) traditional approach using UCoD alone; 2) UCoD and associated causes of death (ACoDs) equally weighted and (3) UCoD weighted 0.5 arbitrarily and remaining 0.5 apportioned to the remaining ACoDs. Challenges to further refining this weighting method by applying weights only to causes that are noted as 'contributory' (reported in Part II of death certificate) will be discussed. Names of presenters James Eynstone-Hinkins, Lauren Moran, Saliu Balogun, Karen Bishop, Margarita Moreno-Betancur, Grace Joshy [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study was to determine and compare risk factors associated with incident fractures in older adults with and without obesity, defined by both body mass index (BMI) and body fat percentage. 1,099 older adults (mean ± standard deviation age = 63.0 ± 7.5) years, participated in this prospective cohort study. Obesity status at baseline was defined by BMI (≥30 kg/m2) obtained by anthropometry and body fat percentage (≥30% for men and ≥40% for women) assessed by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Total hip and lumbar spine areal bone mineral density (aBMD) were assessed by DXA up to five years. Incident fractures were self-reported up to 10 years. Prevalence of obesity was 28% according to BMI and 43% according to body fat percentage. Obese older adults by BMI, but not body fat percentage, had significantly higher aBMD at the total hip and spine compared with non-obese (both p-value<0.05). Obese older adults by body fat percentage had significantly higher likelihood of all incident fractures (OR: 1.71; CI:1.08, 2.71) and non-vertebral fractures (OR: 1.88; CI:1.16, 3.04) compared with non-obese after adjusting for confounders. Conversely, obese older adults by BMI had a significantly lower likelihood (OR: 0.54; CI:0.31, 0.94) of non-vertebral fractures although this was no longer significant after adjustment for total hip aBMD (all p-value > 0.05). Mediation analysis confirmed that aBMD meditated the effects of BMI, but not body fat percentage, on all incident fractures. Higher baseline falls risk score was the only consistent predictor of increased likelihood of incident fracture in obese individuals only, according to both BMI and body fat percentage (both p-value<0.05). Obesity defined by body fat percentage is associated with increased likelihood of incident fractures in community-dwelling older adults, whereas those who are obese according to BMI have reduced likelihood of incident fracture which appears to be explained by higher aBMD. Falls risk assessment may improve identification of obese older adults at increased risk of incident fractures. • Prevalence of obesity was 28% (body mass index) and 43% (body fat %). • Obese older adults defined by body fat % have increased risk of incident fractures. • High body mass index was associated with reduced risk of incident fractures. • High falls risk score was predictive of incident fracture among obese older adults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]