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A mathematical model was generated to predict toxic chemicals released from an explosion involving a Titan II, Delta II, or Titan IV launch vehicle. The model was based on a variety of scientific and engineering input: the chemical description of interacting rocket propellants, data from previous accidents involving these or similar launch systems, an analysis of vehicle failure modes and propellant mixing characteristics, and thermochemical properties of reacting rocket propellants and their combustion products. Outputs of the model include the chemical composition and average molecular weight of the fireball cloud, the adiabatic flame temperature, the fireball size, and the total heat release. Input variables to the model include the time and altitude of abort, the mixing ratio for liquid propellants, amounts of unreacted liquid rocket propellants thermally decomposed, and the amount of air entrained into the fireball cloud. The mathematical model has been encoded into Fortran 77 for integration with the Rocket Exhaust Effluent Diffusion Model (REEDM) currently used at the Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) Space Launch Complex.

SPHAM is a compilation of methods and data directed at hazards analysis and safety for space propulsion and associated vehicles, but broadly applicable to other environments and systems. It includes methods for compiling imposed requirements and deriving design requirements. It describes in detail the steps to constructing accident scenarios for formal risk assessment. It discusses the approaches the developing probabilities for events in scenarios, and probabilities for scenarios. It illustrates data anlaysis from experience data for the purpose of probability modeling. The SPHAM provides methods for predicting blast, fragmentation, thermal, acoustic and toxicity post-accident environments. SPHAM describes in overview fashion a large number of qualitative and quantitative analytical methods available to perform hazards analysis complete with guidelines for application. Examples are FMEA, Fault-tree and Energy Analysis. It describes methods to organize analysis by type, phase, or subsystem. Examples are interface hazards analysis, preliminary hazards analysis, and ordnance hazards analysis. Qualitative and quantitative risk assessments are described. The formal processes for hazards analysis and safety for various agencies and departments of the government and DOD are described. The appendices to SPHAM contain voluminous data on available references in the form of an annotated bibliography, summary of the hazardous nature of 27 commodities common the space propulsion, and system description for a variety of space launch vehicles, upper stage vehicles, and spacecraft.

The Space Propulsion Hazards Analysis manual (SPHAM) is a compilation of methods and data directed at hazards analysis and safety for space propulsion and associated vehicles, but broadly applicable to other environments and systems. It includes methods for compiling imposed requirements and deriving design requirements. It includes methods for compiling imposed requirements and deriving design requirements. It describes in detail the steps to constructing accident scenarios for formal risk assessment. It discusses the approaches to developing probabilities for events in scenarios, and probabilities for scenarios. It illustrates data analysis from experience data for the purpose of probability modeling. The SPHAM provides methods for predicting blast, fragmentation, thermal, acoustic and toxicity post accident environments. The SPHAM describes in overview fashion a large number of qualitative and quantitative analytical methods available to perform hazards analysis complete with guidelines for application. Examples are FMEA, Fault-tree and Energy Analysis. It describes methods to organize analysis by type, phase, or subsystem. Examples are interface hazards analysis, preliminary hazards analysis, and ordnance hazards analysis. Qualitative and quantitative risk assessments are described. The appendices to SPHAM contain voluminous data on available references in the form of an annotated bibliography, summary of the hazardous nature of 27 commodities common to space propulsion, and system description for a variety of space launch vehicles, upper stage vehicles, and spacecraft.