Search

This report provides estimates of the VAT Gap for 26 EU Member States for 2013, as well as revised estimates for the period 2009-2012. It is a follow-up to the report 'Study to quantify and analyse the VAT Gap in the EU-27 Member Statess, published in September 2013 (hereafter: 2013 Report), and to the report '2012 Update Report to the Study to Quantify and Analyse the VAT Gap in the EU-27 Member States' , published in October 2014 (hereafter: 2014 Report). As in previous reports, it was not possible to include estimates for Croatia and Cyprus, due to as-yet-incomplete national account statistics for the two countries ...

The objective of this study is to provide an economic assessment of the impact of the current VAT regimes and the likely effects of alternative VAT regimes in order to assist the Commission in making policy choices. (author's abstract)

This report provides estimates of the VAT Gap for 26 EU Member States for 2012, as well as revised estimates for the period 2009-2011. It is a follow-up to the report "Study to quantify and analyse the VAT Gap in the EU-27 Member States", published in September 2013. This update incorporates the NACE Rev. 2 classification of economic activities into the calculation of the theoretical liability. [...]

from the Table of Contents: Preface; Abstract; Résumé; Executive Summary; Note de synthèse; Introduction; Static analysis of VAT structure and reforms; General equilibrium effects on VAT reforms; Conclusions; Annex

from the Table of Contents: Preface; Belgium; Bulgaria; Czech Republic; Denmark; Germany; Estonia; Greece; Spain; France; Ireland; Italy; Cyprus; Latvia; Lithuania; Luxembourg; Hungary; Malta; Netherlands; Austria; Poland; Portugal; Romania; Slovenia; Slovakia; Finland; Sweden; United Kingdom; A short guide for the use of the result spreadsheets (Estonia); Assumptions for VAT Rates Application

Report based on a study conducted for the European Commission, Bonn 2013 (50 pages)

This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on fiscal consolidation and the questionable effectiveness of the Stability and Growth Pact by addressing the problem of economic governance in the EMU with a game-theoretic principal-agent approach. Following the theory of delegation, we develop a principal-multi agent model where the EMU authorities act as a collective principal that designs contracts for each of two agents that reflect Europe's "South" and "North". We investigate what happens when agents face hidden-information moral hazard problem and when they are able to coordinate their actions. Bearing in mind the applicability of incentive mechanisms, we discuss the optimal contracts for the principal and each of the agents. We prove that the most efficient solution consists of tailor-made contracts, according to which highly indebted countries must be offered strong incentive mechanisms in the form of substantial penalties but also rewards (e.g., preferential loans). We also stress the importance of taking into account positive spillover effects, which could be facilitated by economic integration and fiscal policy coordination between the EMU Members.

This report presents and discusses the findings of the "Study to quantify and analyse the VAT Gap in the EU-27 Member States", conducted by CASE and CPB. The main aim of the study was to help better understand the recent trends in the field of VAT fraud and analyse determinants of VAT Gaps using a number of econometric techniques. The authors discuss the structure of the VAT systems in the EU, the broad trends in the EU economy over the period 2000-2011, and review the behaviour of VAT revenues, as well as the changes in VAT rates and exemptions that have occurred as a response to economic events or policy decisions. They pay particular attention to the events following the onset of the economic crisis in 2008. Moreover, they discuss the definition of VAT Gaps that has been used in this study, as well as other alternatives existing in the literature. They review possible shortcomings associated with different concepts. Subsequently, they present the results of the estimations for EU-26 countries for the period 2000-2011. The estimates are first discussed for the EU-26 as a whole, and then for each country individually. Finally, an econometric analysis of the determinants of VAT Gaps for the period under consideration is provided.

This study is part of the project entitled Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Countries for the European Commission1. The study was written by Luca Barbone (CASE) Mikhail Bonch- Osmolovskiy (CASE) and Matthias Luecke (Kiel). It is based on the six country studies for the Eastern Partnership countries commissioned under this project and prepared by Mihran Galstyan and Gagik Makaryan (Armenia), Azer Allahveranov and Emin Huseynov (Azerbaijan), Aleksander Chubrik and Aliaksei Kazlou (Belarus), Lasha Labadze and Mirjan Tukhashvili (Georgia), Vasile Cantarji and Georgeta Mincu (Moldova), Tom Coupé and Hanna Vakhitova (Ukraine). The authors would like to thank for their comments and suggestions Kathryn Anderson, Martin Kahanec, Costanza Biavaschi, Lucia Kurekova, Monica Bucurenciu, Borbala Szegeli, Giovanni Cremonini and Ummuhan Bardak, as well as the dbaretailed review provided by IOM. The views in this study are those of the authors' only, and should not be interpreted as representing the official position of the European Commission and its institutions.

This paper reviews the published literature on the definition and measurement of the administrative and compliance costs of taxation, with special reference to VAT (including evasion and fraud) in the European Union.

How should Tajikistan adapt to ongoing and future climate change, in particular given the many pressing development challenges it currently faces? The paper argues that for developing countries like Tajikistan, faster economic and social development is the best possible defense against climate change. It presents some key findings from a recent nationally representative household survey to illustrate the strong public support for more climate change related spending on better management of water resources, disaster management, agriculture, and public health--four key sectors that the government's latest poverty reduction strategy identifies as being especially important from a climate change perspective. Finally, the paper argues that, as important as project-based adaptation measures may be, it is imperative that they be supported by an overall policy framework that provides a truly enabling environment to facilitate faster climate change adaptation.

Despite the purported surge in internal migration following the 2004 enlargement of the European Union, data from the 2006 European Union Survey of Income and Living Conditions show that internal migrants are a relatively small share of the European Union's population. Depending on the exact definition used, only about 1 to 2 percent of the population of European Union-13 countries (members prior to the 2004 enlargement, not including Germany and Luxembourg) were born in other European Union countries, while the corresponding share for European Union-4 countries (Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, and Slovakia) is even lower. By contrast, about 6 percent of the population of European Union-13 countries was born outside the European Union. On examining the demographic and socio-economic background of the migrant population (both from within as well as outside the European Union), this paper finds that migrants tend to include a concentration of both low as well as highly educated workers. Both sets of migrants uniformly contribute to raising the working-age population of receiving countries. Using data on average incomes and taxes paid and benefits received by migrant and non-migrant households, the authors find no evidence to support the contention that migrant workers contribute much less in taxes than the native-born population, or consume significantly higher benefits. On the contrary, our calculations suggest that migrant workers make a net contribution of approximately 42 billion euros to the national tax and benefit systems of European Union-13 countries.

In December 1999, the Boards of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund approved a new approach to their relations with low-income countries. The approach was centered around the development and implementation of Poverty Reduction Strategies (PRS), which are intended to be country-driven and medium- to long-term in perspective, comprehensive and results-oriented, partnership-oriented, and built on broad-based participation. Against this tall order of business, experience to date has been varied, and much debate is ongoing on whether the approach can be considered more than"old wine in new bottles."This paper-based on the results of a thorough review of the five-year implementation experience-examines the implementation of the PRS approach from the point of view of participation and accountability. For some 50 countries adopting the approach since 1999, it discusses the factors which can facilitate the development of accountability and participatory governance mechanisms. Lessons learned from distinct country circumstances are analyzed, arguing that ownership of the PRS depends on the way countries and their external donor partners handle real tensions in the relationship between country ownership on the one hand, and perceptions of internationally-driven prescriptions on the other. The central message of the paper is that in several countries the PRS initiative has helped open up societies to forms of dialogue and contestability not previously experienced in-country or observed by external partners. This positive outcome, however, has been largely influenced by the extent to which the PRS process has reinforced existing trends and strengthened institutions already prone to open discussion of policy choices. The paper also shows that even in the best cases change has, to date, been largely in the area of process and that impact of participatory governance on policymaking, while emerging, is still a work in progress. The paper concludes with recommendations for how developing country societies might sustain real achievements in participatory governance and domestic accountability going forward, with external partners playing a key supportive role through harmonization and alignment.

The authors analyze some aspects of the market for Brady bonds (restructured debt in developing countries). They focus on how the debt crisis in Mexico in 1994 affected risk assessment (as measured by the stripped spread) in other Brady countries, especially Poland. Their main finding: The risk premium (in a single country) has a behavior (one unit root), consistent with the hypothesis that it reflects new market information. Among stripped yields, co-movements of sovereign risk premia were stronger during the period of highest volatility in the Mexican crisis. In the case study of Mexico and Poland, they do not reject cointegration for the period July 1994-July 1995; they do reject it for July 1995-July 1996. The crisis had a strong permanent effect on risk assessment in Mexico (about 55 basis points). Different Brady bonds responded differently to the Mexican crisis. Countries with similar pre-crisis means and volatility reacted similarly (in terms of absolute deviation and the degree of co-movement with the Mexican bonds). Other factors (region, oil producers, date of Brady deal) did not explain observed patterns. There was convergence of volatility during the highly volatile period of the Mexican crisis. These results suggest that traders'behavior in assessing the sovereign risk of Brady countries is not constant over time, and responds especially to the level of market uncertainty. Herd behavior increases with risk, leading (in a volatile environment) to even more volatility. Learning is likely to spill over because traders have limited experience with, and limited information about, developing countries. The decrease in co-movements of sovereign risk premia in the second period of the sample could indicate that markets were learning -that is, gathering information about, and experience in, the developing countries, so that the issue of learning spillover was less relevant. But it could also signal that no relevant shock existed to generate such spillover effects, although the market was still vulnerable to country-specific shocks. On that issue, further research is needed.

Joining the European Union (EU) is perhaps the key political and economic objective of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries as they approach the 21st century. But how successful the CEE countries are in achieving this goal depends not only on how well and quickly they adapt their legal and regulatory systems to EU requirements but on how well and quickly the bridge they wide income gaps between CEE and EU countries. Using a model and cross-sectional data to develop estimates, the authors investigate how appropriate structural policies adopted before and after accession to the EU can help CEE countries bridge this income gap. They have much to gain from implementing policies that increase investment, support the development of human capital, and promote the legal, regulatory, and policy framework needed for market mechanisms to function, the faster they implement such changes, the faster they will bridge the income gap between them and the EU countries - and the more likely their accession to the EU will be successful.

The authors argue that traditional explanations of the fiscal crisis in reforming ex-socialist economies overlook crucial connections between key components of the deficit - particularly between reductions in spending and declines in revenues. Almost all studies of the fiscal aspects of the transition stress the impact on the fiscal budget of the performance crisis in state-owned enterprises. The authors contend that this aspect of the fiscal crisis has been overstated. The enterprise sector's net contribution to the government budget - that is, net income from profit taxes after subtracting subsidies - has increased during the transition in Czechoslovakia and Poland and has not changed substantially in Hungary. After reexamining the data, the authors argue that although the fiscal crisis is certainly structural, the main blame should be attributed to the explosion in spending (especially social spending) rather than to the crisis in revenues. Many of the social costs of adjustment were previously hidden within the state-owned enterprises system. These social costs include unemployment benefits and the cost of supporting - through pensions or social assistance - the people displaced from the work force by the transformation. It is important to continue reforming the tax system and tax administration - to deal with the widespread hiding of profits and cheating on taxes - but all three countries already have relatively high levels of taxation. Society in the three countries may not be willing to provide the resources required to support or extend current spending levels.