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As the climate evolves over the next century, the interaction of accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and storms, combined with confining development and infrastructure, will place greater stresses on physical, ecological, and human systems along the ocean-land margin. Many of these valued coastal systems could reach "tipping points," at which hazard exposure substantially increases and threatens the present-day form, function, and viability of communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Determining the timing and nature of these tipping points is essential for effective climate adaptation planning. Here we present a multidisciplinary case study from Santa Barbara, California (USA), to identify potential climate change-related tipping points for various coastal systems. This study integrates numerical and statistical models of the climate, ocean water levels, beach and cliff evolution, and two soft sediment ecosystems, sandy beaches and tidal wetlands. We find that tipping points for beaches and wetlands could be reached with just 0.25 m or less of SLR (~ 2050), with > 50% subsequent habitat loss that would degrade overall biodiversity and ecosystem function. In contrast, the largest projected changes in socioeconomic exposure to flooding for five communities in this region are not anticipated until SLR exceeds 0.75 m for daily flooding and 1.5 m for storm-driven flooding (~ 2100 or later). These changes are less acute relative to community totals and do not qualify as tipping points given the adaptive capacity of communities. Nonetheless, the natural and human built systems are interconnected such that the loss of natural system function could negatively impact the quality of life of residents and disrupt the local economy, resulting in indirect socioeconomic impacts long before built infrastructure is directly impacted by flooding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea level rise and uncertainty in its projections pose a major challenge to flood risk management and adaptation investments in coastal mega cities. This study presents a comparative economic evaluation method for flood adaptation measures, which couples a cost–benefit analysis with the concept of adaptation pathways. Our approach accounts for uncertainty in sea level rise projections by allowing for flexibility of adaptation strategies over time. Our method is illustrated for Los Angeles County which is vulnerable to flooding and sea level rise. Results for different sea level rise scenarios show that applying adaptation pathways can result in higher economic efficiency (up to 10%) than individual adaptation strategies, despite the loss of efficiency at the initial strategy. However, we identified 'investment tipping points', after which a transition could decrease the economic efficiencies of a pathway significantly. Overall, we recommend that studies evaluating adaptation strategies should integrate cost–benefit analysis frameworks with adaptation pathways since this allows for better informing decision makers about the robustness and economic desirability of their investment choices. Unlabelled Image • Adaptation pathways can provide flexibility in difficult adaptation investment choices. • A coastal flood risk analysis with a cost-benefit framework evaluates adaptation pathways. • Adaptation pathways can be more economically efficient than a single adaptation strategy. • If a transition is made after an investment tipping point, economic efficiency of a pathway decreases. • Adaptation pathways should be adopted in conventional flood risk evaluation studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Deterministic dynamical modeling of future climate conditions and associated hazards, such as flooding, can be computationally-expensive if century-long time-series of waves, sea level variations, and overland flow patterns are simulated. To alleviate some of the computational costs, local impacts of individual coastal storms can be explored by first identifying particular events or scenarios of interest and dynamically modeling those events in detail. In this study, an efficient approach to selecting storm events for subsequent deterministic detailed modeling of coastal flooding is presented. The approach identifies locally relevant scenarios derived from regional datasets spanning long time-periods and covering large geographic areas. This is done by identifying storm events from global climate models using a robust, yet computationally simple approach for calculating total water level proxies at the shore, assuming a linear superposition of the important processes contributing to the overall total water level. Clustering of the total water level time-series is used to define coherent coastal cells where similar return period water level extrema occur in response to region-wide storms. Results show that the more severe but rare coastal flood events (e.g., the 100-year (yr) event) typically occur from the same storm across the region, but that a number of different storms are responsible for the less severe but more frequent local extreme water levels (e.g., the 1-yr event). This new ‘storm selection’ approach is applied to the Southern California Bight, a region of varying shoreline orientations that is subject to wave refraction across complex bathymetry, and shadowing, focusing, diffraction, and dissipation of wave energy by islands. Results indicate that wave runup dominates total water level extremes at this study site, highlighting the importance of downscaling global-scale models to nearshore waves when seeking accurate projections of local coastal hazards in response to climate change. Highlights • A computationally efficient method to downscale global scale atmospheric patterns to local total water levels is developed. • Clustering is used to identify coastal segments that respond similarly to region-wide (100s of kms) storms. • Excluding tides, extreme total water levels are dominated by wave runup in Southern California, USA. • 100-year return period storm-driven coastal water levels largely occur from the same regional storm event. • Numerous different region-wide storms are responsible for the less severe but more frequent local extreme water levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Los Angeles (LA) County's coastal areas are highly valued for their natural benefits and their economic contributions to the region. While LA County already has a high level of exposure to flooding (e.g. people, ports, and harbors), climate change and sea level rise will increase flood risk; anticipating this risk requires adaptation planning to mitigate social, economic, and physical damage. This study provides an overview of the potential effects of sea level rise on coastal LA County and describes adaptation pathways and estimates associated costs in order to cope with sea level rise. An adaptation pathway in this study is defined as the collection of measures (e.g., beach nourishment, dune restoration, flood‐proofing buildings, and levees) required to lower flood risk. The aim of using different adaptation pathways is to enable a transition from one methodology to another over time. These pathways address uncertainty in future projections, allowing for flexibility among policies and potentially spreading the costs over time. Maintaining beaches, dunes, and their natural dynamics is the foundation of each of the three adaptation pathways, which address the importance of beaches for recreation, environmental value, and flood protection. In some scenarios, owing to high projections of sea level rise, additional technical engineering options such as levees and sluices may be needed to reduce flood risk. The research suggests three adaptation pathways, anticipating a +1 ft (0.3 m) to +7 ft (+2 m) sea level rise by year 2100. Total adaptation costs vary between $4.3 and $6.4 bn, depending on measures included in the adaptation pathway. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Active margin coastlines are distinguished by rock erosion that acts in two different directions: waves erode the coast horizontally or landwards, a process that creates sea cliffs; and rivers and streams erode the landscape vertically via channel incision. The relative rates of each process exert a dominant control on coastline morphology. Using a model of river channel incision and sea-cliff retreat, we explore how terrestrial and marine erosion compete to shape coastal topography, and specifically what conditions encourage the development of coastal knickpoints (i.e., a river or stream channels that end at a raised sea-cliff edge). We then compare results to actual landscapes. Model results and observations show that coastal knickpoint development is strongly dependent on drainage basin area, where knickpoints typically occur in drainage basins smaller than 5 × 10 5 –6 × 10 6 m 2 , as well as channel geometry and sea-cliff retreat rate. In our study area, coastal knickpoints with persistent flow (waterfalls) are uncommon and form only within a small morphological window when 1) drainage basin area is large enough to sustain steady stream discharge, but not large enough to out-compete sea-cliff formation, 2) sea-cliff retreat is rapid, and 3) channel concavity is low so that channel slopes at the coast are high. This particular geomorphic combination can sustain sea-cliff formation even when streams tap into larger drainage basins with greater discharge and more stream power, and provides an initial explanation of why persistent coastal waterfalls are, along many coastlines, relatively rare features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To predict future coastal hazards, it is important to quantify any links between climate drivers and spatial patterns of coastal change. However, most studies of future coastal vulnerability do not account for the dynamic components of coastal water levels during storms, notably wave-driven processes, storm surges and seasonal water level anomalies, although these components can add metres to water levels during extreme events. Here we synthesize multi-decadal, co-located data assimilated between 1979 and 2012 that describe wave climate, local water levels and coastal change for 48 beaches throughout the Pacific Ocean basin. We find that observed coastal erosion across the Pacific varies most closely with El Niño/Southern Oscillation, with a smaller influence from the Southern Annular Mode and the Pacific North American pattern. In the northern and southern Pacific Ocean, regional wave and water level anomalies are significantly correlated to a suite of climate indices, particularly during boreal winter; conditions in the northeast Pacific Ocean are often opposite to those in the western and southern Pacific. We conclude that, if projections for an increasing frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events over the twenty-first century are confirmed, then populated regions on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean basin could be alternately exposed to extreme coastal erosion and flooding, independent of sea-level rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Over 150million m3 of sand-sized sediment has disappeared from the central region of the San Francisco Bay Coastal System during the last half century. This enormous loss may reflect numerous anthropogenic influences, such as watershed damming, bay-fill development, aggregate mining, and dredging. The reduction in Bay sediment also appears to be linked to a reduction in sediment supply and recent widespread erosion of adjacent beaches, wetlands, and submarine environments. A unique, multi-faceted provenance study was performed to definitively establish the primary sources, sinks, and transport pathways of beach-sized sand in the region, thereby identifying the activities and processes that directly limit supply to the outer coast. This integrative program is based on comprehensive surficial sediment sampling of the San Francisco Bay Coastal System, including the seabed, Bay floor, area beaches, adjacent rock units, and major drainages. Analyses of sample morphometrics and biological composition (e.g., Foraminifera) were then integrated with a suite of tracers including 87Sr/86Sr and 143Nd/144Nd isotopes, rare earth elements, semi-quantitative X-ray diffraction mineralogy, and heavy minerals, and with process-based numerical modeling, in situ current measurements, and bedform asymmetry to robustly determine the provenance of beach-sized sand in the region. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The morphology of ~45,000 bedforms from 13 multibeam bathymetry surveys was used as a proxy for identifying net bedload sediment transport directions and pathways throughout the San Francisco Bay estuary and adjacent outer coast. The spatially-averaged shape asymmetry of the bedforms reveals distinct pathways of ebb and flood transport. Additionally, the region-wide, ebb-oriented asymmetry of 5% suggests net seaward-directed transport within the estuarine-coastal system, with significant seaward asymmetry at the mouth of San Francisco Bay (11%), through the northern reaches of the Bay (7–8%), and among the largest bedforms (21% for λ >50m). This general indication for the net transport of sand to the open coast strongly suggests that anthropogenic removal of sediment from the estuary, particularly along clearly defined seaward transport pathways, will limit the supply of sand to chronically eroding, open-coast beaches. The bedform asymmetry measurements significantly agree (up to ~76%) with modeled annual residual transport directions derived from a hydrodynamically-calibrated numerical model, and the orientation of adjacent, flow-sculpted seafloor features such as mega-flute structures, providing a comprehensive validation of the technique. The methods described in this paper to determine well-defined, cross-validated sediment transport pathways can be applied to estuarine-coastal systems globally where bedforms are present. The results can inform and improve regional sediment management practices to more efficiently utilize often limited sediment resources and mitigate current and future sediment supply-related impacts. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The papers in this special issue feature state-of-the-art approaches to understanding the physical processes related to sediment transport and geomorphology of complex coastal–estuarine systems. Here we focus on the San Francisco Bay Coastal System, extending from the lower San Joaquin–Sacramento Delta, through the Bay, and along the adjacent outer Pacific Coast. San Francisco Bay is an urbanized estuary that is impacted by numerous anthropogenic activities common to many large estuaries, including a mining legacy, channel dredging, aggregate mining, reservoirs, freshwater diversion, watershed modifications, urban run-off, ship traffic, exotic species introductions, land reclamation, and wetland restoration. The Golden Gate strait is the sole inlet connecting the Bay to the Pacific Ocean, and serves as the conduit for a tidal flow of ~8×109 m3/day, in addition to the transport of mud, sand, biogenic material, nutrients, and pollutants. Despite this physical, biological and chemical connection, resource management and prior research have often treated the Delta, Bay and adjacent ocean as separate entities, compartmentalized by artificial geographic or political boundaries. The body of work herein presents a comprehensive analysis of system-wide behavior, extending a rich heritage of sediment transport research that dates back to the groundbreaking hydraulic mining-impact research of G.K. Gilbert in the early 20th century. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Coastal flood risk in California is concentrated around urbanized embayments that are protected by infrastructure, such as levees, pumps, and flood walls, which pose a challenge to accurate flood prediction. A capability to predict coastal urban flooding at the parcel-scale (individual home or street) from high ocean levels (extreme high tides) is shown here by coupling a regional ocean forecasting system to an embayment-scale hydrodynamic model that incorporates detailed information about flood defenses. A unique flooding data set affords the rare opportunity to validate model predictions and allows us to identify model data that are essential for accurate forecasting. In particular, results show that flood defense height data are critical, and here, that information is supplied by a Real Time Kinematic Global Positioning System (RTK-GPS) survey, which yields ca. 1-cm, vertical root mean-squared error accuracy. Bathymetry surveys and aerial Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) data characterizing the embayment also prove essential. Moreover, hydrodynamic modeling of flood inundation is shown to significantly improve on planar surface models, which overestimate inundation, particularly when manipulated to account for run-up in a simplistic way. This is attributed to the transient nature of overtopping flows and motivates the need for dynamic, spatially-distributed overtopping models that are tailored to the urban environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Over 150million m3 of sand-sized sediment has disappeared from the central region of the San Francisco Bay Coastal System during the last half century. This enormous loss may reflect numerous anthropogenic influences, such as watershed damming, bay-fill development, aggregate mining, and dredging. The reduction in Bay sediment also appears to be linked to a reduction in sediment supply and recent widespread erosion of adjacent beaches, wetlands, and submarine environments. A unique, multi-faceted provenance study was performed to definitively establish the primary sources, sinks, and transport pathways of beach-sized sand in the region, thereby identifying the activities and processes that directly limit supply to the outer coast. This integrative program is based on comprehensive surficial sediment sampling of the San Francisco Bay Coastal System, including the seabed, Bay floor, area beaches, adjacent rock units, and major drainages. Analyses of sample morphometrics and biological composition (e.g., Foraminifera) were then integrated with a suite of tracers including 87Sr/86Sr and 143Nd/144Nd isotopes, rare earth elements, semi-quantitative X-ray diffraction mineralogy, and heavy minerals, and with process-based numerical modeling, in situ current measurements, and bedform asymmetry to robustly determine the provenance of beach-sized sand in the region. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Littoral cells along active tectonic margins receive large inputs of sand and gravel from coastal watersheds and commonly lose this sediment to submarine canyons. One hypothesis is that the majority of coarse (sand and gravel) river sediment discharge will be emplaced within and immediately "resupply" local littoral cells. A competing hypothesis is that the infrequent, large floods that supply the majority of littoral sediment may discharge water-sediment mixtures within negatively buoyant hyperpycnal plumes that transport sediment offshore of the littoral cell. Here we summarize pre- and post-flood surveys of two wave-dominated California (United States) river deltas during record to near-record floods to help evaluate these hypotheses: the 1982--1983 delta at the San Lorenzo River mouth and the 2005 delta at the Santa Clara River mouth. Flood sedimentation at both deltas resulted in several meters of aggradation and hundreds of meters of offshore displacement of isobaths. One substantial difference between these deltas was the thick (>2 m) aggradation of sand on the inner shelf of the Santa Clara River delta that contained substantial amounts (~50%) of littoral-grade sediment. Once deposited on the inner shelf, only a fraction (~20%) of this river sand was observed to migrate toward the beach over the following 5 yr. Furthermore, simple hypopycnal plume behavior could not explain deposition of this sand on the inner shelf. Thus, during an exceptional flood a substantial amount of littoral-grade sand was exported offshore of the littoral system at the Santa Clara River mouth--likely from hyperpycnal plume processes-- and was deposited on the inner shelf. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A synthesis of multiple coastal morphodynamic research efforts is presented to identify the processes responsible for persistent erosion along a 1-km segment of 7-km-long Ocean Beach in San Francisco, California. The beach is situated adjacent to a major tidal inlet and in the shadow of the ebb-tidal delta at the mouth of San Francisco Bay. Ocean Beach is exposed to a high-energy wave climate and significant alongshore variability in forcing introduced by varying nearshore bathymetry, tidal forcing, and beach morphology (e.g., beach variably backed by seawall, dunes, and bluffs). In addition, significant regional anthropogenic factors have influenced sediment supply and tidal current strength. A variety of techniques were employed to investigate the erosion at Ocean Beach, including historical shoreline and bathymetric analysis, monthly beach topographic surveys, nearshore and regional bathymetic surveys, beach and nearshore grain size analysis, two surf-zone hydrodynamic experiments, four sets of nearshore wave and current experiments, and several numerical modeling approaches. Here, we synthesize the results of 7 years of data collection to lay out the causes of persistent erosion, demonstrating the effectiveness of integrating an array of data sets covering a huge range of spatial scales. The key findings are as follows: anthropogenic influences have reduced sediment supply from San Francisco Bay, leading to pervasive contraction (i.e., both volume and area loss) of the ebb-tidal delta, which in turn reduced the regional grain size and modified wave focusing patterns along Ocean Beach, altering nearshore circulation and sediment transport patterns. In addition, scour associated with an exposed sewage outfall pipe causes a local depression in wave heights, significantly modifying nearshore circulation patterns that have been shown through modeling to be key drivers of persistent erosion in that area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A 17-year time series of near-daily sand thickness measurements at a single intertidal location was compared with 5years of semi-annual 3-dimensional beach surveys at the same beach, and at two other beaches within the same littoral cell. The daily single point measurements correlated extremely well with the mean beach elevation and shoreline position of ten high-spatial resolution beach surveys. Correlations were statistically significant at all spatial scales, even for beach surveys 10s of kilometers downcoast, and therefore variability at the single point monitoring site was representative of regional coastal behavior, allowing us to examine nearly two decades of continuous coastal evolution. The annual cycle of beach oscillations dominated the signal, typical of this region, with additional, less intense spectral peaks associated with seasonal wave energy fluctuations (~45 to 90days), as well as full lunar (~29days) and semi-lunar (~13days; spring-neap cycle) tidal cycles. Sand thickness variability was statistically linked to wave energy with a 2month peak lag, as well as the average of the previous 7–8months of wave energy. Longer term anomalies in sand thickness were also apparent on time scales up to 15months. Our analyses suggest that spatially-limited morphological data sets can be extremely valuable (with robust validation) for understanding the details of beach response to wave energy over timescales that are not resolved by typical survey intervals, as well as the regional behavior of coastal systems. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Analysis of four historical bathymetric surveys over a 132-year period has revealed significant changes to the morphology of the San Francisco Bar, an ebb-tidal delta at the mouth of San Francisco Bay estuary. From 1873 to 2005 the San Francisco Bar vertically-eroded an average of 80 cm over a 125 km2 area, which equates to a total volume loss of 100 ± 52 million m3 of fine- to coarse-grained sand. Comparison of the surveys indicates the entire ebb-tidal delta contracted radially, with the crest moving landward an average of 1 km. Long-term erosion of the ebb-tidal delta is hypothesized to be due to a reduction in the tidal prism of San Francisco Bay and a decrease in coastal sediment supply, both as a result of anthropogenic activities. Prior research indicates that the tidal prism of the estuary was reduced by 9% from filling, diking, and sedimentation. Compilation of historical records dating back to 1900 reveals that a minimum of 200 million m3 of sediment has been permanently removed from the San Francisco Bay coastal system through dredging, aggregate mining, and borrow pit mining. Of this total, ∼54 million m3 of sand-sized or coarser sediment was removed from central San Francisco Bay. With grain sizes comparable to the ebb-tidal delta, and its direct connection to the bay mouth, removal of sediments from central San Francisco Bay may limit the sand supply to the delta and open coast beaches. SWAN wave modeling illustrates that changes to the morphology of the San Francisco Bar have altered the alongshore wave energy distribution at adjacent Ocean Beach, and thus may be a significant factor in a persistent beach erosion ‘hot spot’ occurring in the area. Shoreline change analyses show that the sandy shoreline in the shadow of the ebb-tidal delta experienced long-term (1850s/1890s to 2002) and short-term (1960s/1980s to 2002) accretion while the adjacent sandy shoreline exposed to open-ocean waves experienced long-term and short-term erosion. Therefore, the recently observed accelerating rates of bay sediment removal, ebb-tidal delta erosion, and open coast beach erosion are all correlated temporally. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Sixty-one Global Positioning System (GPS), sub-aerial beach surveys were completed at 7km long Ocean Beach, San Francisco, CA (USA), between April 2004 and March 2009. The five-year time series contains over 1million beach elevation measurements and documents detailed changes in beach morphology over a variety of spatial, temporal, and physical forcing scales. Results show that seasonal processes dominate at Ocean Beach, with the seasonal increase and decrease in wave height being the primary driver of shoreline change. Storm events, while capable of causing large short-term changes in the shoreline, did not singularly account for a large percentage of the overall observed change. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis shows that the first two modes account for approximately three-quarters of the variance in the data set and are represented by the seasonal onshore/offshore movement of sediment (60%) and the multi-year trend of shoreline rotation (14%). The longer-term trend of shoreline rotation appears to be related to larger-scale bathymetric change. An EOF-based decomposition technique is developed that is capable of estimating the shoreline position to within one standard deviation of the range of shoreline positions observed at most locations along the beach. The foundation of the model is the observed relationship between the temporal amplitudes of the first EOF mode and seasonally-averaged offshore wave height as well as the linear trend of shoreline rotation. This technique, while not truly predictive because of the requirement of real-time wave data, is useful because it can predict shoreline position to within reasonable confidence given the absence of field data once the model is developed at a particular site. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Record flooding on the Santa Clara River of California (USA) during January 2005 injected ∼5millionm3 of littoral-grade sediment into the Santa Barbara Littoral Cell, approximately an order of magnitude more than both the average annual river loads and the average annual alongshore littoral transport in this portion of the cell. This event appears to be the largest sediment transport event on record for a Southern California river. Over 170m of local shoreline (mean high water (MHW)) progradation was observed as a result of the flood, followed by 3years of rapid local shoreline recession. During this post-flood stage, linear regression-determined shoreline change rates are up to −45ma−1 on the subaerial beach (MHW) and −114ma−1 on the submarine delta (6m isobath). Starting approximately 1km downdrift of the river mouth, shoreline progradation persisted throughout the 3-year post-flood monitoring period, with rates up to +19ma−1. Post-flood bathymetric surveys show nearshore (0 to 12m depth) erosion on the delta exceeding 400m3/ma−1, more than an order of magnitude higher than mean seasonal cross-shore sediment transport rates in the region. Changes were not constant with depth, however; sediment accumulation and subsequent erosion on the delta were greatest at −5 to −8m, and accretion in downdrift areas was greatest above –2m. Thus, this research shows that the topographic bulge (or “wave”) of sediment exhibited both advective and diffusive changes with time, although there were significant variations in the rates of change with depth. The advection and diffusion of the shoreline position was adequately reproduced with a simple “one line” model, although these modeling techniques miss the important cross-shore variations observed in this area. This study illustrates the importance of understanding low-frequency, high volume coastal discharge events for understanding short- and long-term sediment supply, littoral transport, and beach and nearshore evolution in coastal systems adjacent to river mouths. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This extensive field test of an autocorrelation technique for determining grain size from digital images was conducted using a digital bed-sediment camera, or ‘beachball’ camera. Using 205 sediment samples and >1200 images from a variety of beaches on the west coast of the US, grain size ranging from sand to granules was measured from field samples using both the autocorrelation technique developed by Rubin [Rubin, D.M., 2004. A simple autocorrelation algorithm for determining grain size from digital images of sediment. Journal of Sedimentary Research, 74(1): 160–165.] and traditional methods (i.e. settling tube analysis, sieving, and point counts). To test the accuracy of the digital-image grain size algorithm, we compared results with manual point counts of an extensive image data set in the Santa Barbara littoral cell. Grain sizes calculated using the autocorrelation algorithm were highly correlated with the point counts of the same images (r 2 =0.93; n =79) and had an error of only 1%. Comparisons of calculated grain sizes and grain sizes measured from grab samples demonstrated that the autocorrelation technique works well on high-energy dissipative beaches with well-sorted sediment such as in the Pacific Northwest (r 2 ≥0.92; n =115). On less dissipative, more poorly sorted beaches such as Ocean Beach in San Francisco, results were not as good (r 2 ≥0.70; n =67; within 3% accuracy). Because the algorithm works well compared with point counts of the same image, the poorer correlation with grab samples must be a result of actual spatial and vertical variability of sediment in the field; closer agreement between grain size in the images and grain size of grab samples can be achieved by increasing the sampling volume of the images (taking more images, distributed over a volume comparable to that of a grab sample). In all field tests the autocorrelation method was able to predict the mean and median grain size with ∼96% accuracy, which is more than adequate for the majority of sedimentological applications, especially considering that the autocorrelation technique is estimated to be at least 100 times faster than traditional methods. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Significant glacial fluctuations and rapid paraglacial reworking of glacigenic sediments characterize the Middle and Late Holocene of the Langtang Khola Valley, Central Nepal Himalaya. Geomorphic mapping and beryllium-10 cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) dating of moraines and paraglacial fans were undertaken to test the existing paraglacial fan, terrace and moraine chronologies. The new dating compares favorably with prior studies that utilized radiocarbon, adding additional support to the assumption that fan and terrace formation are strongly linked to deglaciation. Fan and terrace denudation rates are so rapid in this region, averaging ∼33mm/yr, that no depositional landforms older than 5ka are preserved within 250m of the valley floor. In this region, high rates of denudation during the Late Quaternary are driven by a combination of rapid tectonic uplift, numerous glacial fluctuations and intense weathering driven by an active monsoon climate. Extensive reworking of glacigenic sediments in Langtang during the latter half of the Holocene is consistent with studies completed in other areas of the Himalaya that are strongly influenced by the monsoon. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The Garhwal Himalaya provides an excellent natural laboratory in which to examine landscape evolution in a monsoon-influenced high mountain environment. Geomorphic and sedimentological analysis and 10Be cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) surface exposure dating of moraines, fans, and river and strath terraces in the Gori Ganga Valley of Nanda Devi, NE Garhwal, indicate that fans and river terraces developed rapidly by debris flow and flood processes during periods of deglaciation. These phases of high sediment transfer occurred at ∼1–2, ∼4–5, and ∼7–8 ka. Fan incision rates, subsequent to major times of resedimentation after each glacial advance, are between ∼19 and 57 mm/year. This contrasts with bedrock incision rates, based on mid-Holocene strath terraces, of ∼5 mm/year. These rates indicate that despite episodes of rapid denudation and resedimentation linked to glacial activity in this region, the background rates of denudation are similar to those for other regions of the Himalaya, averaging several millimeters per year. Furthermore, these data show the importance of climatic controls on landscape evolution and suggest a strong monsoonal control on the dynamics of earth surface processes in this region. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The Gangotri Glacier, at the source of the Ganges River, has fluctuated greatly throughout the late Quaternary in response to climatic oscillations. This has resulted in impressive moraines, paraglacial debris flow fans and terraces along the upper stretches of the Bhagirathi Valley. Cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) dating of glacial and paraglacial landforms shows that fans, terraces and associated moraines formed approximately synchronously as the landscape readjusted to changing environmental conditions. This synchronicity suggests that fan and terrace formation is intimately related to glaciation, and that fluctuations in glacial and associated environments during times of climatic instability cause rapid sediment transfer and resedimentation of glacial landforms. The CRN dates show that all existing glacial and paraglacial landforms in the upper Bhagirathi Valley formed during the late Pleistocene and Holocene. This demonstrates that, in this high mountain environment, paraglacial and glacial landforms are eroded and resedimented within about 20,000 years. Furthermore, this testifies to the dynamic nature of glacial environments in monsoon-influenced high mountain regions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The El Niño Southern Oscillation is the most dominant mode of interannual climate variability in the Pacific. The 2015/2016 El Niño event was one of the strongest of the last 145 years, resulting in anomalously high wave energy across the U.S. West Coast, and record coastal erosion for many California beaches. To better manage coastal resources, it is critical to understand the impacts of both short-term climate variability and long-term climate impacts across the varied coastal settings of California. This study is the first to quantify the coastal response for one of the strongest El Niño events in the historical record across the coast of California through the analysis of nearshore wave conditions and seasonal beach changes for 8000 shore-normal transects. Through the analysis of pre- and post- El Niño LiDAR, we find that that central and northern California experienced the most sandy beach shoreline retreat/erosion during the El Niño winter, with a mean of 45.7 m of erosion (96% of beaches) in central California, a mean of 25.5 m of erosion (89% of beaches) in northern California, and a mean of 9.7 m of erosion (79% of beaches) in southern California. These patterns are compared to LiDAR and satellite-derived long-term shoreline change rates, in which southern California and central California beaches are moderately accreting, while northern California is eroding at an average of 79 cm per year. A significant correlation is found between cumulative wave energy flux and shoreline change during the El Niño winter across the state of California. Although local beach response during the El Niño winter was highly variable, heightened erosion was observed at river mouths and on the southern side of structures impeding littoral drift, with accretion observed on the northern side of these structures. These erosional patterns, driven by a northerly wave direction anomaly, contrast those of classic El Niño events such as the 1982–.83 and 1997–98 events, where more southerly storm tracks and southerly wave directions were key factors controlling shoreline behavior, and may indicate a shift in El Niño storm patterns driven by climate change. Unlabelled Image • LiDAR analysis of California's sandy beach response during 2015/2016 El Niño winter. • Highest mean sandy beach erosion values occurred in central and northern California. • Significant correlation found between wave energy and shoreline change. • Alongshore erosional patterns indicate statewide north to south net sand transport direction. • Unusual northerly wave direction may indicate a shift in El Niño storm patterns driven by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of nature-based solutions (NBS) for coastal climate adaptation has broad and growing interest, but NBS are rarely assessed with the same rigor as traditional engineering solutions or with respect to future climate change scenarios. These gaps pose challenges for the use of NBS for climate adaptation. Here, we value the flood protection benefits of stakeholder-identified marsh restoration under current and future climate change within San Francisco Bay, a densely urbanized estuary, and specifically on the shores of San Mateo County, the county most vulnerable to future flooding in California. Marsh restoration provides a present value of $21 million which increases to over $100 million with 0.5 m of sea level rise (SLR), and to about $500 million with 1 m of SLR. There are hotspots within the county where marsh restoration delivers very high benefits for adaptation, which reach $9 million/hectare with likely future sea level and storm conditions. Today’s investments in nature and community resilience can result in increasing payoffs as climate change progresses and risk increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea-level rise will radically redefine the coastline of the 21st century. For many coastal regions, projections of global sea-level rise by the year 2100 (e.g., 0.5–2 meters) are comparable in magnitude to today's extreme but short-lived increases in water level due to storms. Thus, the 21st century will see significant changes to coastal flooding regimes (where present-day, extreme-but-rare events become common), which poses a major risk to the safety and sustainability of coastal communities worldwide. So far, estimates of future coastal flooding frequency focus on endpoint scenarios, such as the increase in flooding by 2050 or 2100. Here, we investigate the continuous shift in coastal flooding regimes by quantifying continuous rates of increase in the occurrence of extreme water-level events due to sea-level rise. We find that the odds of exceeding critical water-level thresholds increases exponentially with sea-level rise, meaning that fixed amounts of sea-level rise of only ~1–10 cm in areas with a narrow range of present-day extreme water levels can double the odds of flooding. Combining these growth rates with established sea-level rise projections, we find that the odds of extreme flooding double approximately every 5 years into the future. Further, we find that the present-day 50-year extreme water level (i.e., 2% annual chance of exceedance, based on historical records) will be exceeded annually before 2050 for most (i.e., 70%) of the coastal regions in the United States. Looking even farther into the future, the present-day 50-year extreme water level will be exceeded almost every day during peak tide (i.e., daily mean higher high water) before the end of the 21st century for 90% of the U.S. coast. Our findings underscore the need for immediate planning and adaptation to mitigate the societal impacts of future flooding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Total water levels (TWLs) at the coast are driven by a combination of deterministic (e.g., tides) and stochastic (e.g., waves, storm surge, and sea level anomalies) processes. The contribution of each process to TWLs varies depending on regional differences in climate and framework geology, as well as local-scale variations in beach morphology, coastal orientation, and shelf bathymetry. Large-scale changes to the climate altering the frequency, direction, and intensity of storms, may therefore propagate to the nearshore differently, amplifying or suppressing local coastal hazards and changing the exposure of coastal communities to extreme TWLs. This study investigates the hydrodynamic and geomorphologic factors controlling local TWLs along high-energy United States coastlines where wave-influences dominate TWLs. Three study sites in the states of Washington, Oregon, and California are chosen to explore how regional and local differences in beach topography and wave transformation over shelf bathymetry drives variations in the magnitude and impacts of extreme TWLs. Results indicate that TWLs are most influenced by wave transformation processes in locations with steep beach slopes and complex offshore bathymetry, while beach topography influences the severity of coastal impacts. Once the relative morphologic controls on TWLs are better understood, hypothetical future climate scenarios are explored to assess how changes to the average deepwater wave climate (height, period, and direction) may alter local TWLs when compared to estimates of likely sea level rise and future coastal management strategies. Changes to the wave climate are found to be as detrimental to the coastline as sea level rise in some locations, where small variations of the TWL drive large, nonlinear changes in hours of impact to the backshore beach. Overall, this study develops an approach for quantifying the range of hydrodynamic and morphologic controls on the magnitude of TWLs which will ultimately better prepare coastal communities for uncertain changes to the global climate. • The hydrodynamic and morphologic controls on the magnitude of extreme total water levels (TWLs) at the coast are quantified. • Wave transformation across shelf bathymetry alters which deep-water wave conditions generate extreme TWLs. • The spatial variation in beach slope drives which locations experience impacts from extreme TWLs. • The same change in the deep-water wave climate drives location-dependent differences in extreme TWLs and their impacts. • Future changes to the wave climate may impact the coastline as much as sea level rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Erikson, L.H.; O'Neill, A.C., and Barnard, P.L., 2018. Estimating fluvial discharges coincident with 21st century coastal storms modeled with CoSMoS. In: Shim, J.-S.; Chun, I., and Lim, H.S. (eds.), Proceedings from the International Coastal Symposium (ICS) 2018 (Busan, Republic of Korea). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 85, pp. 791–795. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. On the open coast, flooding is largely driven by tides, storm surge, waves, and in areas near coastal inlets, the magnitude and co-occurrence of high fluvial discharges. Statistical methods are typically used to estimate the individual probability of coastal storm and fluvial discharge occurrences for use in sophisticated flood hazard models. A challenge arises when considering possible future climate changes and the relation between the intensity of extreme coastal water levels and high fluvial discharges. In this study, the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) is used to dynamically downscale global climate projections to local-scale storm-driven coastal water levels, including associated fluvial discharges. An efficient approach to derive 21st century projected fluvial discharges for rivers within San Francisco Bay was developed, leveraging a readily-available time-series of projected (2010 – 2100) discharge rates of the predominant river system (the “Delta”). Delta projections were used to estimate flow rates of 8 Bay rivers for the IPCC's CMIP5 RCP4.5 climate scenario. Relationships describing discharge rates, normalized by respective watershed areas, were developed and applied to projected data to generate 21st century fluvial discharge time-series for each river. Results indicate decreasing discharge rates throughout the 21st century with the exception of extreme flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Erikson, L.H.; O'Neill, A.C., and Barnard, P.L., 2018. Estimating fluvial discharges coincident with 21st century coastal storms modeled with CoSMoS. In: Shim, J.-S.; Chun, I., and Lim, H.S. (eds.), Proceedings from the International Coastal Symposium (ICS) 2018 (Busan, Republic of Korea). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 85, pp. 791–795. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. On the open coast, flooding is largely driven by tides, storm surge, waves, and in areas near coastal inlets, the magnitude and co-occurrence of high fluvial discharges. Statistical methods are typically used to estimate the individual probability of coastal storm and fluvial discharge occurrences for use in sophisticated flood hazard models. A challenge arises when considering possible future climate changes and the relation between the intensity of extreme coastal water levels and high fluvial discharges. In this study, the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) is used to dynamically downscale global climate projections to local-scale storm-driven coastal water levels, including associated fluvial discharges. An efficient approach to derive 21st century projected fluvial discharges for rivers within San Francisco Bay was developed, leveraging a readily-available time-series of projected (2010 – 2100) discharge rates of the predominant river system (the "Delta"). Delta projections were used to estimate flow rates of 8 Bay rivers for the IPCC's CMIP5 RCP4.5 climate scenario. Relationships describing discharge rates, normalized by respective watershed areas, were developed and applied to projected data to generate 21st century fluvial discharge time-series for each river. Results indicate decreasing discharge rates throughout the 21st century with the exception of extreme flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hanes, D.M. and Barnard, P.L., 2007. Morphological Evolution in the San Francisco Bight. Journal of Coastal Research, SI 50 (Proceedings of the 9th International Coastal Symposium), 469 – 473. Gold Coast, Australia, ISSN 0749.0208 San Francisco Bight, located near the coast of San Francisco, USA, is an extremely dynamic tidal inlet environment subject to large waves and strong currents. Wave heights coming from the Pacific Ocean commonly exceed 5 m during winter storms. During peak flow tidal currents approach 3 m/s at the Golden Gate, a 1 km wide entrance that connects San Francisco Bay to the Pacific Ocean. Flow structure in this region varies markedly spatially and temporally due to the complex interaction by wind, waves and tidal currents. A multibeam sonar survey was recently completed that mapped in high resolution, for the first time, the bottom morphology in the region of the ebb tidal delta. This data set includes a giant sand wave field covering an area of approximately 4 square kilometres. The new survey enables the calculation of seabed change that has occurred in the past 50 years, since the last comprehensive survey of the area was completed. This comparison indicates an average erosion of 60 centimetres which equates to a total volume change of approximately 9.2 x 107 m3. Morphologic change also indicates that flood channels have filled and that the entire ebb delta is contracting radially. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The impact of multi-decadal, large-scale deflation (76millionm3 of sediment loss) and contraction (~1km) of a 150km2 ebb-tidal delta on hydrodynamics and sediment transport at adjacent Ocean Beach in San Francisco, CA (USA), is examined using a coupled wave and circulation model. The model is forced with representative wave and tidal conditions using recent (2005) and historic (1956) ebb-tidal delta bathymetry data sets. Comparison of the simulations indicates that along north/south trending Ocean Beach the contraction and deflation of the ebb-tidal delta have resulted in significant differences in the flow and sediment dynamics. Between 1956 and 2005 the transverse bar (the shallow attachment point of the ebb-tidal delta to the shoreline) migrated northward ~1km toward the inlet while a persistent alongshore flow and transport divergence point migrated south by ~500m such that these features now overlap. A reduction in tidal prism and sediment supply over the last century has resulted in a net decrease in offshore tidal current-generated sediment transport at the mouth of San Francisco Bay, and a relative increase in onshore-directed wave-driven transport toward the inlet, accounting for the observed contraction of the ebb-tidal delta. Alongshore migration of the transverse bar and alongshore flow divergence have resulted in an increasing proportion of onshore migrating sediment from the ebb-tidal delta to be transported north along the beach in 2005 versus south in 1956. The northerly migrating sediment is then trapped by Pt. Lobos, a rocky headland at the northern extreme of the beach, consistent with the observed shoreline accretion in this area. Conversely, alongshore migration of the transverse bar and divergence point has decreased the sediment supply to southern Ocean Beach, consistent with the observed erosion of the shoreline in this area. This study illustrates the utility of applying a high-resolution coupled circulation-wave model for understanding coastal response to large-scale bathymetric changes over multi-decadal timescales, common to many coastal systems adjacent to urbanized estuaries and watersheds worldwide. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The mineralogical compositions of 119 samples collected from throughout the San Francisco Bay coastal system, including bayfloor and seafloor, area beaches, cliff outcrops, and major drainages, were determined using X-ray diffraction (XRD). Comparison of the mineral concentrations and application of statistical cluster analysis of XRD spectra allowed for the determination of provenances and transport pathways. The use of XRD mineral identifications provides semi-quantitative compositions needed for comparisons of beach and offshore sands with potential cliff and river sources, but the innovative cluster analysis of XRD diffraction spectra provides a unique visualization of how groups of samples within the San Francisco Bay coastal system are related so that sand-sized sediment transport pathways can be inferred. The main vector for sediment transport as defined by the XRD analysis is from San Francisco Bay to the outer coast, where the sand then accumulates on the ebb tidal delta and also moves alongshore. This mineralogical link defines a critical pathway because large volumes of sediment have been removed from the Bay over the last century via channel dredging, aggregate mining, and borrow pit mining, with comparable volumes of erosion from the ebb tidal delta over the same period, in addition to high rates of shoreline retreat along the adjacent, open-coast beaches. Therefore, while previously only a temporal relationship was established, the transport pathway defined by mineralogical and geochemical tracers support the link between anthropogenic activities in the Bay and widespread erosion outside the Bay. The XRD results also establish the regional and local importance of sediment derived from cliff erosion, as well as both proximal and distal fluvial sources. This research is an important contribution to a broader provenance study aimed at identifying the driving forces for widespread geomorphic change in a heavily urbanized coastal-estuarine system. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Temporal and spatial changes in glacier cover throughout the Late Quaternary in Tibet and the bordering mountains are poorly defined because of the inaccessibility and vastness of the region, and the lack of numerical dating. To help reconstruct the timing and extent of glaciation throughout Tibet and the bordering mountains, we use geomorphic mapping and 10Be cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) surface dating in study areas in southeastern (Gonga Shan), southern (Karola Pass) and central (Western Nyainqentanggulha Shan and Tanggula Shan) Tibet, and we compare these with recently determined numerical chronologies in other parts of the plateau and its borderlands. Each of the study regions receives its precipitation mainly during the south Asian summer monsoon when it falls as snow at high altitudes. Gonga Shan receives the most precipitation (>2000mma−1) while, near the margins of monsoon influence, the Karola Pass receives moderate amounts of precipitation (500–600mma−1) and, in the interior of the plateau, little precipitation falls on the western Nyainqentanggulha Shan (∼300mma−1) and the Tanggula Shan (400–700mma−1). The higher precipitation values for the Tanggula Shan are due to strong orographic effects. In each region, at least three sets of moraines and associated landforms are preserved, providing evidence for multiple glaciations. The 10Be CRN surface exposure dating shows that the formation of moraines in Gonga Shan occurred during the early–mid Holocene, Neoglacial and Little Ice Age, on the Karola Pass during the Lateglacial, Early Holocene and Neoglacial, in the Nyainqentanggulha Shan date during the early part of the last glacial cycle, global Last Glacial Maximum and Lateglacial, and on the Tanggula Shan during the penultimate glacial cycle and the early part of the last glacial cycle. The oldest moraine succession in each of these regions varies from the early Holocene (Gonga Shan), Lateglacial (Karola Pass), early Last Glacial (western Nyainqentanggulha Shan), and penultimate glacial cycle (Tanggula Shan). We believe that the regional patterns and timing of glaciation reflect temporal and spatial variability in the south Asian monsoon and, in particular, in regional precipitation gradients. In zones of greater aridity, the extent of glaciation has become increasingly restricted throughout the Late Quaternary leading to the preservation of old (≫100ka) glacial landforms. In contrast, in regions that are very strongly influenced by the monsoon (≫1600mma−1), the preservation potential of pre-Lateglacial moraine successions is generally extremely poor. This is possibly because Lateglacial and Holocene glacial advances may have been more extensive than early glaciations and hence may have destroyed any landform or sedimentary evidence of earlier glaciations. Furthermore, the intense denudation, mainly by fluvial and mass movement processes, which characterize these wetter environments, results in rapid erosion and re-sedimentation of glacial and associated landforms, which also contributes to their poor preservation potential. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Moraine successions in glaciated valleys south of Mount Everest provide evidence for at least eight glacial advances during the late Quaternary. Cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) surface exposure dating of moraine boulders defines the timing of each glacial advance and refines the previous glacial chronologies. The CRN data show that glaciation was most extensive during the early part of the last glacial (marine oxygen isotype stage [MIS] 3 and earlier), but limited during MIS 2 (the global Last Glacial Maximum) and the Holocene. A previously assumed Neoglacial advance is dated to 3.6 ± 0.3 ka and the CRN dates confirm a glacial advance ca. 1 ka. These results show that glaciations on the south side of Everest were not synchronous with the advance of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, yet glaciations within the Himalaya, the world's highest mountain belt, were synchronous during the late Quaternary. The existence of glacial advances during times of increased insolation suggests that enhanced moisture delivered by an active south Asian summer monsoon is largely responsible for glacial advances in this part of the Himalaya. These data allow us to quantify the importance of global climate change and monsoon influence on glaciation in the Himalaya. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sandy coastlines adjacent to tidal inlets are highly dynamic and widespread landforms, where large changes are expected due to climatic and anthropogenic influences. To adequately assess these important changes, both oceanic (e.g., sea-level rise) and terrestrial (e.g., fluvial sediment supply) processes that govern the local sediment budget must be considered. Here, we present novel projections of shoreline change adjacent to 41 tidal inlets around the world, using a probabilistic, reduced complexity, system-based model that considers catchment-estuary-coastal systems in a holistic way. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, retreat dominates (90% of cases) over the twenty-first century, with projections exceeding 100 m of retreat in two-thirds of cases. However, the remaining systems are projected to accrete under the same scenario, reflecting fluvial influence. This diverse range of response compared to earlier methods implies that erosion hazards at inlet-interrupted coasts have been inadequately characterised to date. The methods used here need to be applied widely to support evidence-based coastal adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

O'Neill, A.C.; Erikson, L.H.; and Barnard, P.L., 2020. Impacts of sea-level rise on the tidal reach of California coastal rivers using the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS). In: Malvárez, G. and Navas, F. (eds.), Global Coastal Issues of 2020. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 95, pp. 1223-1228. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. In coastal rivers, the interactions between tides and fluvial discharge affect local ecology, sedimentation, river dynamics, river mouth configuration, and the flooding potential in adjacent wetlands and low-lying areas. With sea-level rise, the tidal reach within coastal rivers can expand upstream, impacting river dynamics and increasing flood risk across a much greater area. Rivers along the Pacific coast of California are constrained by coastal mountain ranges, in contrast to the typical large and low-gradient river deltas and estuaries often used in tidal reach studies. Yet, the impacts of tides are ever-present and considerable to these rivers' habitats and neighboring communities. The impacts of a range of sea-level rise, discharge, and coastal storm conditions on the upstream extent of a spring tidal influence and the associated flood potential are assessed for several coastal rivers across California using coupled Delft3D FLOW-WAVE hydrodynamic simulations that explicitly account for the interactions between waves, currents, surge, and water levels in this study. Projected changes in tidal reach among the various rivers are characterized and implications for adjacent communities and stakeholders are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing the influence of marshes on mitigating flooding along estuarine shorelines under the pressures of sea level rise requires understanding wave transformation across the marsh. A numerical model was applied to investigate how vegetated marshes influence wave transformation. XBeach non-hydrostatic (XB-NH) was calibrated and validated with high frequency pressure data from the marsh at China Camp State Park in San Pablo Bay, California (USA). The model was used to examine how marsh and hydrodynamic characteristics change the potential for marshes to mitigate wave driven flooding. Model results demonstrate that hydrodynamics, vegetation, and marsh width influence wave transformation most, while marsh morphology parameters such as elevation and slope had least effect. Results suggest that in the range of settings explored here (incident wave heights ranging from 0.5 to 3 m and water levels ranging from current mean higher high water to 3 m above current mean higher high water), in comparison to wave propagation over an unvegetated mudflat, marsh vegetation reduces runup by a median of 40 cm and wave height by a median of 35 cm. Results illustrate how marshes can be strategically utilized to provide flood reduction benefits. • We examined how marsh and hydrodynamic characteristics change the potential for marshes to mitigate wave driven flooding. • Hydrodynamics, vegetation, and marsh width influence wave transformation most. • Marsh morphology parameters such as elevation and slope had least effect. • Marsh vegetation reduced runup by a median of 40 cm and wave height by a median of 35 cm. • Results illustrate how marshes can be strategically utilized to provide flood reduction benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relative importance of radiation stress gradients and alongshore pressure gradients to surfzone dynamics is investigated using observations of water levels, waves, and flows measured onshore of a large ebb-tidal delta. Incident wave heights measured along the ~ 11-m depth contour varied about 10% over a 1.2-km alongshore transect, resulting in alongshore wave setup differences on the order of 10 cm over the 600-m extent of the surfzone instrument array in 1.5-m depth. Despite the moderate alongshore variability in wave heights, the southerly alongshore pressure gradient, associated with the alongshore variability of wave-driven set-up, was typically twice as large as the northerly radiation stress gradient forcing, consistent with the observed southerly currents during the week-long experiment. The magnitude of the alongshore forcing and resulting alongshore velocity is reproduced by the two-dimensional depth-averaged numerical model of Shi et al. (JGR-Oceans, 2011). These observations, together with the numerical results, indicate that moderate alongshore wave height gradients (O(10- 4)) outside the surfzone owing to alongshore variations in the offshore bathymetry can result in alongshore pressure gradients that are larger than radiation stress gradients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliable and long-term hindcast data of water levels are essential in quantifying return period and values of extreme water levels. In order to inform design decisions on a local flood control district level, process-based numerical modeling has proven an essential tool to provide the needed temporal and spatial coverage for different extreme value analysis methods. To determine the importance of different physical processes to the extreme water levels we developed a process-based numerical model (Delft3D Flexible Mesh) and applied it to simulate a large, urban, high-energy coastal estuary (the San Francisco Bay). The unstructured grid with 1D/2DH model elements, allows for efficient model simulations and therefore it was possible to simulate over 70 years between 1950 and 2019. Results show significant skill in reproducing observations for the entire modeled time period with an average root-mean-square error of 8.0 cm. A process-based modeling approach allows for the explicit in- and exclusion of different physical processes to quantify their importance to the extremes. For the 100-year still water level (SWL), tide (70%) and non-tidal residual (NTR) (25%) explain the majority of the simulated high water levels in the Bay relative to Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). However, closer to the Delta, local fluvial inflow increases in importance. For longer return periods, the importance of tide decreases and the importance of remote NTRs and fluvial inflow increases. • A validated 1D/2DH model was used to analyze different physical processes to the extreme water levels over a 70-year hindcast. • Extreme water levels in the San Francisco Bay are mainly driven by tide and sea level anomalies at the Pacific Ocean (25%). • Deeper in the estuary, towards to the San Francisco Delta, local fluvial inflow increases in importance for extremes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The contribution of tidal forcing to alongshore circulation inside the surfzone is investigated at a 7km long sandy beach adjacent to a large tidal inlet. Ocean Beach in San Francisco, CA (USA) is onshore of a ∼150km2 ebb-tidal delta and directly south of the Golden Gate, the sole entrance to San Francisco Bay. Using a coupled flow-wave numerical model, we find that the tides modulate, and in some cases can reverse the direction of, surfzone alongshore flows through two separate mechanisms. First, tidal flow through the inlet results in a barotropic tidal pressure gradient that, when integrated across the surfzone, represents an important contribution to the surfzone alongshore force balance. Even during energetic wave conditions, the tidal pressure gradient can account for more than 30% of the total alongshore pressure gradient (wave and tidal components) and up to 55% during small waves. The wave driven component of the alongshore pressure gradient results from alongshore wave height and corresponding setup gradients induced by refraction over the ebb-tidal delta. Second, wave refraction patterns over the inner shelf are tidally modulated as a result of both tidal water depth changes and strong tidal flows (∼1m/s), with the effect from currents being larger. These tidally induced changes in wave refraction result in corresponding variability of the alongshore radiation stress and pressure gradients within the surfzone. Our results indicate that tidal contributions to the surfzone force balance can be significant and important in determining the direction and magnitude of alongshore flow. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The Qaidam Basin in Northern Tibet is one of the largest hyper-arid intermontane basins on Earth. Alluvial fans, pediment surfaces, shorelines and a thick succession of sediments within the basin, coupled with moraines and associated landforms in the adjacent high mountain catchments of the Kunlun Mountains, record a complex history of Late Quaternary paleoenvironmental change and landscape evolution. The region provides an ideal natural laboratory to examine the interaction between tectonics and climate within a continent–continent collision zone, and to quantify rates of landscape evolution as controlled by climate and the associated glacial and hydrological changes in hyper-arid and adjacent high-altitude environments. Geomorphic mapping, analysis of landforms and sediments, and terrestrial cosmogenic radionuclide surface exposure and optically stimulated luminescence dating serve to define the timing of formation of Late Quaternary landforms along the southern and northwestern margins of the Qaidam Basin, and in the Burhan Budai Shan of the Kunlun Mountains adjacent to the basin on the south. These dates provide a framework that suggests links between climatic amelioration, deglaciation, lake desiccation and alluvial fan evolution. At least three glacial advances are defined in the Burham Budai Shan of the Kunlun Mountains. On the northern side of this range these occurred in the penultimate glacial cycle or early in the last glacial cycle, during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)/Lateglacial and during the Holocene. On the south side of the range, advances occurred during the penultimate glacial cycle, MIS-3, and possibly the LGM, Lateglacial or Holocene. Several distinct phases of alluvial fan sedimentation are likewise defined. Alluvial fans formed on the southern side of the Kunlun Mountains prior to 200ka. Ice-contact alluvial fans formed during the penultimate glacial and during MIS-3. Extensive incised alluvial fans that form the main valley fills north of the Burham Budai and extend into the Qaidam Basin are dated to ∼30ka. These ages suggest that there was a period of alluvial fan aggradation and valley filling that persisted until desiccation of the large lakes in the Qaidam Basin post ∼30ka led to base level lowering and active incision of streams into the valley fills. The continued Lateglacial and Holocene desiccation likely led to further degradation of the valley fills. Ice wedge casts in the Qaidam Basin date to ∼15ka, indicating significant Lateglacial climatic amelioration, while Holocene loess deposits north of the Burham Bdudai suggest that aridity has increased in the region since the early Holocene. From these observations, we infer that the major landscape changes within high glaciated mountains and their adjacent hyper-arid intermontane basins, such as the Kunlun Mountains and Qaidam Basin, occur rapidly over millennial timescales during periods of climatic instability. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Several giant ice avalanches were initiated by slope failure from ice caps due to strong ground motion during the 14 November 2001 Mw = 7.9 Kokoxili earthquake on the Kunlun fault. Four ice avalanches were identified on the north slope of the Burhan Budai Shan several kilometers east of the Kunlun Pass, and two were identified on the south slope of the eastern Yuxi Feng, which is ∼50 km west of the Kunlun Pass. These ice avalanches originated from steep-sided ice caps and progressed over and past the termini of outlet valley glaciers. In the Burhan Budai Shan, the ice avalanches comprised ice and snow that reached 2-3 km down valley beyond the snouts of the contemporary glaciers. Detailed study of the largest ice avalanche (B2) shows that the initial movement over the contemporary glacier was turbulent in nature, having a velocity >35 ms-1. Beyond the contemporary glacier, the ice avalanche was confined within steep valley walls and entrenched paraglacial fans. Before coming to rest, this ice avalanche moved as a Bing- ham plastic flow at a velocity of ≤21 ms-1. These ice avalanches transported little rock debris, and it is thus unlikely that they are important in contributing to the landscape evolution of this region. Yet, given the appropriate geologic and climatic conditions, ice avalanching may be an important process in the landscape evolution of high mountainous terrains. The frequency of such events is unknown, but such phenomena may become more common in the future as a consequence of increased glacier and slope instability caused by humaninduced climate change. Ice avalanches, therefore, likely constitute a significant geologic hazard in the near future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glacial successions in the Anyemaqen and Nianbaoyeze Mountains of northeastern Tibet are reassessed and new glacial chronologies are presented for these regions. Cosmogenic radionuclide and optically stimulated luminescence dating indicates that two glacial advances occurred in marine isotope stage (MIS)-3 and MIS-2. In the Anyemaqen Mountains, a third advance occurred in the Early Holocene. We suggest that glaciation was synchronous in the Anyemaqen and Nianbaoyeze Mountains, as well as in other glaciated areas of Tibet and the Himalaya that are influenced by the Asian monsoon. The maximum extent of glaciation occurred early in the last glacial cycle (MIS-3) during a time of increased insolation when the monsoon intensified and supplied abundant precipitation, as snow at high altitude, to feed high-altitude glaciers. This suggests that precipitation, as snow, is fundamental in controlling glaciation in these regions. However, the occurrence of glacial advances during the insolation minimum of MIS-2 suggests that, despite reduced precipitation at this time, the annual temperatures were cold enough to maintain positive glacier mass balances. The numerically defined chronologies for the Anyemaqen and Nianbaoyeze Mountains presented here provide a framework for comparing glacial advances in other parts of high Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Moraines along the southwestern slopes of the Qilian Shan were dated using cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) surface exposure techniques to help define the timing of glaciation in northernmost Tibet. The CRN data show glaciers extending 5-10 km beyond their present positions during the global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and probably maintained at their maximum extent until the Lateglacial. These data help support the view that glaciers throughout Tibet and the Himalaya were maintained at or near their maximum LGM extent until the Lateglacial. An optically stimulated luminescence date of 11.8 ± 1.0 ka on silt that caps a latero-frontal moraine shows that glaciers had retreated significantly by the end of the Pleistocene and that loess was beginning to form in this region in response to the changing climate during and after the Younger Dryas Stade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]