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Heat waves (HWs) can cause large socioeconomic and environmental impacts. The observed increases in their frequency, intensity and duration are projected to continue with global warming. This review synthesizes the state of knowledge and scientific challenges. It discusses different aspects related to the definition, triggering mechanisms, observed changes and future projections of HWs, as well as emerging research lines on subseasonal forecasts and specific types of HWs. We also identify gaps that limit progress and delineate priorities for future research. Overall, the physical drivers of HWs are not well understood, partly due to difficulties in the quantification of their interactions and responses to climate change. Influential factors convey processes at different spatio-temporal scales, from global warming and the large-scale atmospheric circulation to regional and local factors in the affected area and upwind regions. Although some thermodynamic processes have been identified, there is a lack of understanding of dynamical aspects, regional forcings and feedbacks, and their future changes. This hampers the attribution of regional trends and individual events, and reduces the ability to provide accurate forecasts and regional projections. Sustained observational networks, models of diverse complexity, narrative-based methodological approaches and artificial intelligence offer new opportunities toward process-based understanding and interdisciplinary research. Heat waves (HWs) are climate extremes of major societal concern whose frequency, intensity and duration will continue increasing during this century. This review synthesizes the physical understanding and the main scientific challenges. We discuss problems involved in HW definition, including the diversity of HW indicators, and the consideration of adaptive capabilities in a changing climate. We also review observed and projected trends and the associated atmospheric patterns in different areas of the globe, with special attention to the mechanisms and drivers responsible for HW occurrence. These act at different scales, from planetary to local, and include thermodynamic and dynamical processes. There is a limited and fragmentary understanding of the interactions among these processes on regional scales, and their changes under global warming. Process-based understanding will benefit HW forecasts at time horizons longer than weather predictions, attribution of HW trends and events to human activities, and regional climate projections. Improved technological capabilities, models of diverse complexity, or machine-learning techniques will help overcome these challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to provide a new blocking definition with applicability to observations and model simulations. An updated review of previous blocking detection indices is provided and some of their implications and caveats discussed. A novel blocking index is proposed by reconciling two traditional approaches based on anomaly and absolute flows. Blocks are considered from a complementary perspective as a signature in the anomalous height field capable of reversing the meridional jet-based height gradient in the total flow. The method succeeds in identifying 2-D persistent anomalies associated to a weather regime in the total flow with blockage of the westerlies. The new index accounts for the duration, intensity, extension, propagation, and spatial structure of a blocking event. In spite of its increased complexity, the detection efficiency of the method is improved without hampering the computational time. Furthermore, some misleading identification problems and artificial assumptions resulting from previous single blocking indices are avoided with the new approach. The characteristics of blocking for 40 years of reanalysis (1950-1989) over the Northern Hemisphere are described from the perspective of the new definition and compared to those resulting from two standard blocking indices and different critical thresholds. As compared to single approaches, the novel index shows a better agreement with reported proxies of blocking activity, namely climatological regions of simultaneous wave amplification and maximum band-pass filtered height standard deviation. An additional asset of the method is its adaptability to different data sets. As critical thresholds are specific of the data set employed, the method is useful for observations and model simulations of different resolutions, temporal lengths and time variant basic states, optimizing its value as a tool for model validation. Special attention has been paid on the devise of an objective scheme easily applicable to General Circulation Models where observational thresholds may be unsuitable due to the presence of model bias. Part II of this study deals with a specific implementation of this novel method to simulations of the ECHO-G global climate model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

previously defined automatic method is applied to reanalysis and present-day (1950-1989) forced simulations of the ECHO-G model in order to assess its performance in reproducing atmospheric blocking in the Northern Hemisphere. Unlike previous methodologies, critical parameters and thresholds to estimate blocking occurrence in the model are not calibrated with an observed reference, but objectively derived from the simulated climatology. The choice of model dependent parameters allows for an objective definition of blocking and corrects for some intrinsic model bias, the difference between model and observed thresholds providing a measure of systematic errors in the model. The model captures reasonably the main blocking features (location, amplitude, annual cycle and persistence) found in observations, but reveals a relative southward shift of Eurasian blocks and an overall underestimation of blocking activity, especially over the Euro-Atlantic sector. Blocking underestimation mostly arises from the model inability to generate long persistent blocks with the observed frequency. This error is mainly attributed to a bias in the basic state. The bias pattern consists of excessive zonal winds over the Euro-Atlantic sector and a southward shift at the exit zone of the jet stream extending into in the Eurasian continent, that are more prominent in cold and warm seasons and account for much of Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian blocking errors, respectively. It is shown that other widely used blocking indices or empirical observational thresholds may not give a proper account of the lack of realism in the model as compared with the proposed method. This suggests that in addition to blocking changes that could be ascribed to natural variability processes or climate change signals in the simulated climate, attention should be paid to significant departures in the diagnosis of phenomena that can also arise from an inappropriate adaptation of detection methods to the climate of the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southwestern Europe experienced extraordinary rainy and windy conditions in March 2018, leading to the end of the most severe drought since 1970 at continental scale. This anomalous weather was linked to a persistent negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern. Two weeks earlier a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) took place, preceded by the strongest planetary wave activity on record. In this study, we explore the connection between the SSW and the weather shift by employing a weather regime approach and flow analogues. The timing of the downward propagation of the stratospheric anomalies, the transition to and persistence of the negative North Atlantic Oscillation weather regime, and the sudden precipitation increase are all consistent with the typical tropospheric state after SSWs. Our results evidence a significant role of the 2018 SSW in the record‐breaking precipitation event. Plain Language Summary: March 2018 was characterized by extraordinary heavy rain and strong winds over the Iberian Peninsula that ended the most severe drought since 1970 at continental scale. Two weeks earlier the polar stratosphere experienced anomalous conditions with a sudden rise in temperature, so‐called sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). Although SSWs are not rare events, the 2018 case was remarkable in terms of its intensity and persistence. The coincidence in time of both extreme events and the known link between SSWs and anomalous weather in the North Atlantic led the media to claim that the SSW was the main culprit of the anomalous weather of March 2018. However, this assumption is not straightforward because of the large variability in the magnitude of tropospheric responses to SSWs. Here we explore the role of the SSW in the abrupt weather shift by analyzing the downward propagation of the SSW signal and its link to the tropospheric synoptic conditions. Our results indicate an actual connection between the 2018 SSW and the record‐breaking precipitation event. Key Points: Outstanding stratospheric and tropospheric conditions occurred in late winter 2018, with a persistent SSW and extreme Iberian precipitationThe rainy conditions were associated with an extremely persistent negative NAO patternThe 2018 SSW played a relevant role in the shift to and maintenance of the negative NAO event that ended the severe Iberian drought [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper examines the characteristics of the heatwave that affected western and central Europe in June 2017. Using a novel algorithm, we show that its extension, intensity, and persistence were comparable to those of other European mega‐heatwaves, but it occurred earlier in the summer. The most affected area was Iberia, which experienced devastating forest fires with human casualties and the warmest temperatures of the reanalysis period from daily to seasonal scales. The peak of the mega‐heatwave displayed an unprecedented warm air intrusion due to a record‐breaking subtropical ridge with signatures closer to those of July and August. The atmospheric circulation was the main triggering factor of the event. However, thermodynamical changes of the last decades made a substantial contribution to the event, by increasing the likelihood of surpassing high‐temperature thresholds. This episode could be a good example of a coming future, with high‐summer mega‐heatwaves occurring earlier. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: An analysis of winter intensity and frequency of precipitation is presented, based on 102 daily precipitation stations over Spain and the Balearic Islands for the 1997–2006 decade. Precipitation stations have been merged in the eight different regions which compose the analyzed area by the use of an EOF analysis. NAO influence on the intensity and frequency of precipitation of each region is described in terms of mean precipitation, mean rain frequency, the number of extreme events, changes in the precipitation distribution and the prevalent synoptic configuration. Results indicate a non-stationary response; NAO signal being more evident in mid–late winter. Strong regional differences in the response to NAO are also found, which vary according to the specific character of the precipitation under analysis. Thus, NAO exerts a clear effect on the intensity of total and extreme precipitation rates in northern and westernmost Spanish regions, whereas the frequency of precipitation is clearly affected by NAO in central and southwestern areas. While the correlation between NAO and precipitation is negative for most of the analyzed area, two regions reveal positive responses to NAO in total precipitation occurrence and intensity for specific months. Further analyses reveal asymmetric responses to opposite phases of NAO in the precipitation distributions of some regions. The complex regional relationship between NAO and precipitation is also revealed through the modulation of the former in the preferred Circulation Weather Types associated to precipitation in each region. This spatially non-homogeneous NAO signal stresses the need of caution when employing Iberian precipitation as a proxy for NAO. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The article summarizes the temperature and precipitation conditions across Europe and the Middle East in 2013. Topics discussed include the widespread anomalous warmth that affected the regions, the increase in air temperature anomalies, and the above normal annual precipitation across continental Europe. Also mentioned are the below average precipitation observed over parts of the British Isles, southern Scandinavia and the Middle East.

Abstract: This paper focuses on the spatial–temporal structure of total ozone column (TOC) over Portugal. This relevant region of southwestern Europe has not been evaluated yet in detail due to the lack of continuous and well-covered ground-based TOC measurements. The data used in this study are derived from the NASA''s Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) for the period 1978–2005. The TOC spatial behavior shows no significant longitudinal variability (smaller than 3%). In contrast, the variation in latitude changes between 3.5% and 6% depending on the calendar month. The TOC in the northern Portugal is, on average, higher than that recorded in the South. The temporal variability was analyzed for three scales: long-term, seasonal and short-term. The long-term TOC changes are analyzed between 1978 and 1999 by means of linear least squares fits. The results show an annual TOC trend of (−2.65±0.70)%/decade which is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. This TOC decrease is smaller than the trends obtained in other midlatitudes regions which could be partially explained by the compensation due to the observed increase in the tropospheric ozone over the Iberian Peninsula. A trend analysis performed for each individual month shows a statistically significant TOC decline between March and October, with a maximum linear trend value of (−7.30±1.45)%/decade in May. The amplitude of the seasonal TOC cycle over Portugal shows a slight dependence in latitude, varying from 28.6 DU (37.5° N) to 33.6 DU (41.5° N). Finally, the short-term variability showed a notable seasonal behavior, with maximum day-to-day TOC changes in winter (~6%) and minimum in summer (~3%). In addition, the persistence (characterized by the autocorrelation coefficients) strongly decreases after a few days (except in summer months). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The authors present a chronology of El Niño (EN) events based on documentary records from northern Peru. The chronology, which covers the period 1550–1900, is constructed mainly from primary sources from the city of Trujillo (Peru), the Archivo General de Indias in Seville (Spain), and the Archivo General de la Nación in Lima (Peru), supplemented by a reassessment of documentary evidence included in previously published literature. The archive in Trujillo has never been systematically evaluated for information related to the occurrence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Abundant rainfall and river discharge correlate well with EN events in the area around Trujillo, which is very dry during most other years. Thus, rain and flooding descriptors, together with reports of failure of the local fishery, are the main indicators of EN occurrence that the authors have searched for in the documents. A total of 59 EN years are identified in this work. This chronology is compared with the two main previous documentary EN chronologies and with ENSO indicators derived from proxy data other than documentary sources. Overall, the seventeenth century appears to be the least active EN period, while the 1620s, 1720s, 1810s, and 1870s are the most active decades. The results herein reveal long-term fluctuations in warm ENSO activity that compare reasonably well with low-frequency variability deduced from other proxy data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A 3-year Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) database, which extends from 2000 to 2002, has been built for the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands using the objective method MASCOTTE (MAximum Spatial COrrelation Technique). It was originally developed to track the evolution of convective systems over the Amazon region; after modifications, it is able to track MCS evolution even with an hour and a half of missed images and provides essential information of both dynamical and morphological characteristics of MCSs. MASCOTTE is tested against a visual and subjective method, and is found to offer advantages such as automation and a simple and efficient operation that make it very useful for building large MCS databases. Thirty-five MCSs were found between June and October, most of them originated along the Mediterranean coast and near the Pyrenees, showing an increasing occurrence from June to September, when the maximum is found. The regions most influenced by MCS occurrences are Balearic Islands, Valencia, Catalonia, Murcia and the Basque Country. The MCSs tend to be small, short-lived and linear, usually moving eastward or northeastward with low velocities. The MCSs-associated precipitation presents high variability, ranging from 80 to 0 mm h−1 as maximum hourly records. Two different convective regions are identified based on MCS behavior in extreme precipitation events: Northern Spain (the Basque Country) with abundant and continuous precipitation regime but little MCS influence, and the Mediterranean coast, where precipitation is sporadic but much more intense. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The article reports on the heavy precipitation that resulted to intense flooding in central Europe in June 2013. Topics discussed include the high water levels in the rivers Danube, Elbe and Rhine, the extensive depression that dominated the weather situation over central Europe from May 30 to June 2, and the cold and wet conditions that characterized the spring season.