Search

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) treatment guidelines are modified several times per year to reflect the rapid evolution of the field (e.g., emergence of new antiretroviral drugs). As such, a treatment-decision support system that is capable of self-learning is highly desirable. Based on the fuzzy discrete event system (FDES) theory that we recently created, we have developed a self-learning HIV/AIDS regimen selection system for the initial round of combination antiretroviral therapy, one of the most complex therapies in medicine. The system consisted of a treatment objectives classifier, fuzzy finite state machine models for treatment regimens, and a genetic-algorithm-based optimizer. Supervised learning was achieved through automatically adjusting the parameters of the models by the optimizer. We focused on the four historically popular regimens with 32 associated treatment objectives involving the four most important clinical variables (potency, adherence, adverse effects, and future drug options). The learning targets for the objectives were produced by two expert AIDS physicians on the project, and their averaged overall agreement rate was 70.6%. The system's learning ability and new regimen suitability prediction capability were tested under various conditions of clinical importance. The prediction accuracy was found between 84.4% and 100%. Finally, we retrospectively evaluated the system using 23 patients treated by 11 experienced nonexpert faculty physicians and 12 patients treated by the two experts at our AIDS Clinical Center in 2001. The overall exact agreement between the 13 physicians' selections and the system's choices was 82.9% with the agreement for the two experts being both 100%. For the seven mismatched cases, the system actually chose more appropriate regimens in four cases and equivalent regimens in another two cases. It made a mistake in one case. These (preliminary) results show that 1) the System outperformed the nonexpert physicians and 2) it performed as well as the expert physicians did. This learning and prediction approach, as well as our original FDESs theory, is general purpose and can be applied to other medical or nonmedical problems. Index Terms--Artificial intelligence, discrete event systems, fuzzy discrete event systems, fuzzy logic, HIV/AIDS treatment.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) treatment guidelines are modified several times per year to reflect the rapid evolution of the field (e.g., emergence of new antiretroviral drugs). As such, a treatment-decision support system that is capable of self-learning is highly desirable. Based on the fuzzy discrete event system (FDES) theory that we recently created, we have developed a self-learning HIV/AIDS regimen selection system for the initial round of combination antiretroviral therapy, one of the most complex therapies in medicine. The system consisted of a treatment objectives classifier, fuzzy finite state machine models for treatment regimens, and a genetic-algorithm-based optimizer. Supervised learning was achieved through automatically adjusting the parameters of the models by the optimizer. We focused on the four historically popular regimens with 32 associated treatment objectives involving the four most important clinical variables (potency, adherence, adverse effects, and future drug options). The learning targets for the objectives were produced by two expert AIDS physicians on the project, and their averaged overall agreement rate was 70.6%. The system's learning ability and new regimen suitability prediction capability were tested under various conditions of clinical importance. The prediction accuracy was found between 84.4% and 100%. Finally, we retrospectively evaluated the system using 23 patients treated by 11 experienced nonexpert faculty physicians and 12 patients treated by the two experts at our AIDS Clinical Center in 2001. The overall exact agreement between the 13 physicians' selections and the system's choices was 82.9% with the agreement for the two experts being both 100%. For the seven mismatched cases, the system actually chose more appropriate regimens in four cases and equivalent regimens in another two cases. It made a mistake in one case. These (preliminary) results show that 1) the System outperformed the nonexpert physicians and 2) it performed as well as the expert physicians did. This learning and prediction approach, as well as our original FDESs theory, is general purpose and can be applied to other medical or nonmedical problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Treatment decision-making is complex and involves many factors. A systematic decision-making and optimization technology capable of handling variations and uncertainties of patient characteristics and physician's subjectivity is currently unavailable. We recently developed a novel general-purpose fuzzy discrete event systems theory for optimal decision-making. We now apply it to develop an innovative system for medical treatment, specifically for the first round of highly active antiretroviral therapy of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) patients involving three historically widely used regimens. The objective is to develop such a system whose regimen choice for any given patient will exactly match expert AIDS physician's selection to produce the (anticipated) optimal treatment outcome. Our regimen selection system consists of a treatment objectives classifier, fuzzy finite state machine models for treatment regimens, and a genetic-algorithm-based optimizer. The optimizer enables the system to either emulate an individual doctor's decision-making or generate a regimen that simultaneously satisfies diverse treatment preferences of multiple physicians to the maximum extent. We used the optimizer to automatically learn the values of 26 parameters of the models. The learning was based on the consensus of AIDS specialists A and B on this project, whose exact agreement was only 35%. The performance of the resulting models was first assessed. We then carried out a retrospective study of the entire system using all the qualifying patients treated in our institution's AIDS Clinical Center in 2001. A total of 35 patients were treated by 13 specialists using the regimens (four and eight patients were treated by specialists A and B, respectively). We compared the actually prescribed regimens with those selected by the system using the same available information. The overall exact agreement was 82.9% (29 out of 35), with the exact agreement with specialists A and B both at 100%. The exact agreement for the remaining 11 physicians not involved in the system training was 739% (17 out of 23), an impressive result given the fact that expert opinion can be quite divergent for treatment decisions of such complexity. Our specialists also carefully examined the six mismatched cases and deemed that the system actually chose a more appropriate regimen for four of them. In the other two cases, either would be reasonable choices. Our approach has the capabilities of generalizing, learning, and representing knowledge even in the face of weak consensus, and being readily upgradeable to new medical knowledge. These are practically important features to medical applications in general, and HIV/AIDS treatment in particular, as national HIV/AIDS treatment guidelines are modified several times per year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Treatment decision-making is complex and involves many factors. A systematic decision-making and optimization technology capable of handling variations and uncertainties of patient characteristics and physician's subjectivity is currently unavailable. We recently developed a novel general-purpose fuzzy discrete event systems theory for optimal decision-making. We now apply it to develop an innovative system for medical treatment, specifically for the first round of highly active antiretroviral therapy of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) patients involving three historically widely used regimens. The objective is to develop such a system whose regimen choice for any given patient will exactly match expert AIDS physician's selection to produce the (anticipated) optimal treatment outcome. Our regimen selection system consists of a treatment objectives classifier, fuzzy finite state machine models for treatment regimens, and a genetic-algorithm-based optimizer. The optimizer enables the system to either emulate an individual doctor's decision-making or generate a regimen that simultaneously satisfies diverse treatment preferences of multiple physicians to the maximum extent. We used the optimizer to automatically learn the values of 26 parameters of the models. The learning was based on the consensus of AIDS specialists A and B on this project, whose exact agreement was only 35%. The performance of the resulting models was first assessed. We then carried out a retrospective study of the entire system using all the qualifying patients treated in our institution's AIDS Clinical Center in 2001. A total of 35 patients were treated by 13 specialists using the regimens (four and eight patients were treated by specialists A and B, respectively). We compared the actually prescribed regimens with those selected by the system using the same available information. The overall exact agreement was 82.9% (29 out of 35), with the exact agreement with specialists A and B both at 100%. The exact agreement for the remaining 11 physicians not involved in the system training was 73.9% (17 out of 23), an impressive result given the fact that expert opinion can be quite divergent for treatment decisions of such complexity. Our specialists also carefully examined the six mismatched cases and deemed that the system actually chose a more appropriate regimen for four of them. In the other two cases, either would be reasonable choices. Our approach has the capabilities of generalizing, learning, and representing knowledge even in the face of weak consensus, and being readily upgradeable to new medical knowledge. These are practically important features to medical applications in general, and HIV/AIDS treatment in particular, as national HIV/AIDS treatment guidelines are modified several times per year.

Current postmarketing surveillance methods largely rely on spontaneous reports which suffer from serious underreporting, latency, and inconsistent reporting. Thus they are not ideal for rapidly identifying rare adverse drug reactions (ADRs). We propose an active, multi-agent computer software system, where each agent is empowered with teamwork capabilities such as anticipating information needs, identifying relevant ADR information, and continuously monitoring and proactively sharing such information in a collaborative fashion with other agents. The main purpose of this system is to help regulatory authorities (e.g., FDA in the U.S.) find previously unrecognized ADRs as early as possible. Another objective is to promote increased filing of on-line ADR reports thereby, addressing the severe underreporting problem with the current system. The proposed system has the potential to significantly accelerate the process of ADR discovery and response by utilizing electronic patient data distributed across many different sources and locations more effectively. Our preliminary system design is presented and some issues related to it are discussed.