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Purpose: To investigate the enduring disparities in adverse COVID-19 events between urban and rural communities in the United States, focusing on the effects of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and therapeutic advances on patient outcomes., Methods: Using National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) data from 2021 to 2023, this retrospective cohort study examined COVID-19 hospitalization, inpatient death, and other adverse events. Populations were categorized into urban, urban-adjacent rural (UAR), and nonurban-adjacent rural (NAR). Adjustments included demographics, variant-dominant waves, comorbidities, region, and SARS-CoV-2 treatment and vaccination. Statistical methods included Kaplan-Meier survival estimates, multivariable logistic, and Cox regression., Findings: The study included 3,018,646 patients, with rural residents constituting 506,204. These rural dwellers were older, had more comorbidities, and were less vaccinated than their urban counterparts. Adjusted analyses revealed higher hospitalization odds in UAR and NAR (aOR 1.07 [1.05-1.08] and 1.06 [1.03-1.08]), greater inpatient death hazard (aHR 1.30 [1.26-1.35] UAR and 1.37 [1.30-1.45] NAR), and greater risk of other adverse events compared to urban dwellers. Delta increased, while Omicron decreased, inpatient adverse events relative to pre-Delta, with rural disparities persisting throughout. Treatment effectiveness and vaccination were similarly protective across all cohorts, but dexamethasone post-ventilation was effective only in urban areas. Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir and molnupiravir better protected rural residents against hospitalization., Conclusions: Despite advancements in treatment and vaccinations, disparities in adverse COVID-19 outcomes persist between urban and rural communities. The effectiveness of some therapeutic agents appears to vary based on rurality, suggesting a nuanced relationship between treatment and geographic location while highlighting the need for targeted rural health care strategies., (© 2024 The Author(s). The Journal of Rural Health published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of National Rural Health Association.)

Despite increasing prevalence of hypertension in youth and high adult cardiovascular mortality rates, the long-term consequences of youth-onset hypertension remain unknown. This is due to limitations of prior research such as small sample sizes, reliance on manual record review, and limited analytic methods that did not address major biases. The Study of the Epidemiology of Pediatric Hypertension (SUPERHERO) is a multisite retrospective Registry of youth evaluated by subspecialists for hypertension disorders. Sites obtain harmonized electronic health record data using standardized biomedical informatics scripts validated with randomized manual record review. Inclusion criteria are index visit for International Classification of Diseases Diagnostic Codes, 10th Revision (ICD-10 code)-defined hypertension disorder ≥January 1, 2015 and age <19 years. We exclude patients with ICD-10 code-defined pregnancy, kidney failure on dialysis, or kidney transplantation. Data include demographics, anthropomorphics, U.S. Census Bureau tract, histories, blood pressure, ICD-10 codes, medications, laboratory and imaging results, and ambulatory blood pressure. SUPERHERO leverages expertise in epidemiology, statistics, clinical care, and biomedical informatics to create the largest and most diverse registry of youth with newly diagnosed hypertension disorders. SUPERHERO's goals are to (i) reduce CVD burden across the life course and (ii) establish gold-standard biomedical informatics methods for youth with hypertension disorders., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.)

Background: Managing critically ill neonates has unique challenges, and the transport team plays an important role in stabilizing and facilitating the transfer of these neonates from lower-level nurseries to tertiary centers, and the use of telemedicine in transport (tele-transport) can potentially benefit patient care. We conducted a multicenter study to assess the readiness for utilizing telemedicine as an adjunct to guide the care of critically ill neonates among physicians and transport team members (TTMs). This is the first multicenter study that explored physicians' and TTMs' perceptions of telemedicine usage and its value in neonatal transport., Methods: A confidential, voluntary survey on pre-implementation attitudes toward telemedicine usage during neonatal transport was conducted as part of a quality improvement initiative. This survey involved physicians and TTMs from four academic institutions whose responses were entered into an online survey using REDCap®. The survey inquired about satisfaction with the current practice of phone consultation and the perception of using telemedicine to optimize the management of neonates during transport., Results: The overall response rate for the survey was 60.1%; 82 of 127 (64.6%) physicians and 64 of 116 (55.2%) TTMs responded to the surveys. Half of the physicians and less than one-fourth of the TTMs had prior experience with telemedicine other than that used on neonatal transport. TTMs expressed greater concern about the inconvenience of video (55% vs. physicians 35% agree or strongly agree ) and its time consumption (84% vs. physicians 50%). More than 70% of physicians and less than half of TTMs endorsed the potential for added value and quality improvement with video capability. Almost half of TTMs reported concern about video calls reducing their autonomy in patient care. Physicians expressed confidence in management decisions they would make after video calls (72% confident or very confident ) and less confidence (49%) about both the phone assessment by TTMs and their decisions based on phone assessment. In contrast, TTMs were confident or very confident (94%) in both sharing their assessment over the phone and executing patient management after a phone call, compared with 70% for decisions made after video calls., Conclusions: Physicians and TTMs had distinct opinions on the use of telemedicine during neonatal transport. Physicians were more likely than TTMs to agree with statements about the potential for improving quality of care, while TTMs were more likely than physicians to say video calls would be time-consuming and inconvenient. We speculate some differences may stem from the TTMs' concern about losing their autonomy. Therefore, during implementation, it is critical for physicians and TTMs to agree on a shared mental model of indications for telemedicine during transport and its value to the patient care., Competing Interests: Declaration of conflicting interestsThe authors declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Objective: The U.S. opioid epidemic has been characterized by increases in opioid misuse, overdose deaths, and neonatal opioid withdrawal syndrome. Research suggests that marijuana legalization has contributed to decreased use of opiates, although many studies had methodological weaknesses and failed to address the pregnant population. Implementation of medical cannabis laws has the potential to reduce maternal opioid use and, therefore, neonatal exposure to the drugs. This study aimed to examine the association between Oklahoma's implementation of state medical marijuana laws and the neonatal exposure to opioids., Study Design: Electronic medical records at two sites (Oklahoma City and Lawton) were searched for results of cord, urine, and meconium screens to detect amphetamines, barbiturates, benzodiazepines, cocaine, ethanol, opiates, phencyclidine, and tetrahydrocannabinol (THC). Two study periods were compared: 19 months before Oklahoma's medical marijuana law took effect and 19 months after legalization began., Results: A total of 16,804 babies were born alive at the two sites during the study period. The rate of positive THC tests per 1,000 liveborn infants significantly increased from 16.2 per 1,000 during the prelaw period to 22.2 per 1,000 during the postlaw period ( p  = 0.004). Neonatal opioid exposure incidence showed a nonsignificant decrease from 7.6 positive tests per 1,000 liveborn infants to 6.8 per 1,000 from prelaw to postlaw period ( p  = 0.542). The number of positive tests for THC and concomitant use of opioids doubled from the prelaw period ( n  = 4) to postlaw ( n  = 9), but there were too few cases for statistical significance. Infants at the more rural site had significantly higher rates for amphetamines, benzodiazepines, and THC, with a trend toward higher rates for opiates., Conclusion: Marijuana legalization was related to significant increases in positive test rates for THC, but no significant change/association was noted for neonatal exposure to opioids., Key Points: · Prior studies have not examined neonatal exposure to opioids following marijuana legalization.. · Oklahoma's new law led to higher neonatal marijuana exposure.. · Legalization of medical marijuana did not change Oklahoma's neonatal opioid positivity rate.., Competing Interests: None declared., (Thieme. All rights reserved.)

Aim: Neonatal resuscitation guidelines promote the laryngeal mask (LM) interface for positive pressure ventilation (PPV), but little is known about how the LM is used among Neonatal Resuscitation Program (NRP) Providers and Instructors. The study aim was to characterize the training, experience, confidence, and perspectives of NRP Providers and Instructors regarding LM use during neonatal resuscitation at birth., Methods: A voluntary anonymous survey was emailed to all NRP Providers and Instructors. Survey items addressed training, experience, confidence, and barriers for LM use during resuscitation. Associations between respondent characteristics and outcomes of both LM experience and confidence were assessed using logistic regression., Results: Between 11/7/22-12/12/22, there were 5,809 survey respondents: 68% were NRP Providers, 55% were nurses, and 87% worked in a hospital setting. Of these, 12% had ever placed a LM during newborn resuscitation, and 25% felt very or completely confident using a LM. In logistic regression, clinical or simulated hands-on training, NRP Instructor role, professional role, and practice setting were all associated with both LM experience and confidence.The three most frequently identified barriers to LM use were insufficient experience (46%), preference for other interfaces (25%), and failure to consider the LM during resuscitation (21%). One-third (33%) reported that LMs are not available where they resuscitate newborns., Conclusion: Few NRP providers and instructors use the LM during neonatal resuscitation. Strategies to increase LM use include hands-on clinical training, outreach promoting the advantages of the LM compared to other interfaces, and improving availability of the LM in delivery settings., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© 2023 The Authors.)

Background: Clinical informatics tools to integrate data from multiple sources have the potential to catalyze population health management of childhood cancer survivors at high risk for late heart failure through the implementation of previously validated risk calculators., Methods: The Oklahoma cohort (n = 365) harnessed data elements from Passport for Care (PFC), and the Duke cohort (n = 274) employed informatics methods to automatically extract chemotherapy exposures from electronic health record (EHR) data for survivors 18 years old and younger at diagnosis. The Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) late cardiovascular risk calculator was implemented, and risk groups for heart failure were compared to the Children's Oncology Group (COG) and the International Guidelines Harmonization Group (IGHG) recommendations. Analysis within the Oklahoma cohort assessed disparities in guideline-adherent care., Results: The Oklahoma and Duke cohorts both observed good overall concordance between the CCSS and COG risk groups for late heart failure, with weighted kappa statistics of .70 and .75, respectively. Low-risk groups showed excellent concordance (kappa > .9). Moderate and high-risk groups showed moderate concordance (kappa .44-.60). In the Oklahoma cohort, adolescents at diagnosis were significantly less likely to receive guideline-adherent echocardiogram surveillance compared with survivors younger than 13 years old at diagnosis (odds ratio [OD] 0.22; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.10-0.49)., Conclusions: Clinical informatics tools represent a feasible approach to leverage discrete treatment-related data elements from PFC or the EHR to successfully implement previously validated late cardiovascular risk prediction models on a population health level. Concordance of CCSS, COG, and IGHG risk groups using real-world data informs current guidelines and identifies inequities in guideline-adherent care., (© 2023 Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

Background: Children with cancer from rural and nonurban areas face unique challenges. Health equity for this population requires attention to geographic disparities in optimal survivorship-focused care., Methods: The Oklahoma Childhood Cancer Survivor Cohort was based on all patients reported to the institutional cancer registry and ≤ 18 years old at diagnosis between January 1, 2005, and September 24, 2014. Suboptimal follow-up was defined as no completed oncology-related clinic visit five to 7 years after their initial diagnosis (survivors were 7-25 years old at end of the follow-up period). The primary predictor of interest was rurality., Results: Ninety-four (21%) of the 449 eligible survivors received suboptimal follow-up. There were significant differences (P = 0.01) as 36% of survivors from large towns (n = 28/78) compared with 21% (n = 20/95) and 17% (n = 46/276) of survivors from small town/isolated rural and urban areas received suboptimal follow-up, respectively. Forty-five percent of adolescents at diagnosis were not seen in the clinic compared with 17% of non-adolescents (P < 0.01). An adjusted risk ratio of 2.2 (95% confidence interval, 1.5, 3.2) was observed for suboptimal follow-up among survivors from large towns, compared with survivors from urban areas. Seventy-three percent of survivors (n = 271/369) had a documented survivorship care plan with similar trends by rurality., Conclusions: Survivors from large towns and those who were adolescents at the time of diagnosis were more likely to receive suboptimal follow-up care compared with survivors from urban areas and those diagnosed younger than thirteen., Impact: Observed geographic disparities in survivorship care will inform interventions to promote equitable care for survivors from nonurban areas., (©2023 American Association for Cancer Research.)

Epidemic Models of the Onset of Social Activities (EMOSA) describe behaviors that spread through social networks. Two social influence methods are represented, social contagion (one-to-one spread) and general diffusion (spread through cultural channels). Past models explain problem behaviors-smoking, drinking, sexuality, and delinquency. We provide review, and a tutorial (including examples). Following, we present new EMOSA models explaining changes in adolescent and young adult religious participation. We fit the model to 10 years of data from the 1997 U.S. National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Innovations include a three-stage bi-directional model, Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation, graphical innovations, and empirical validation. General diffusion dominated rapid reduction in church attendance during adolescence; both diffusion and social contagion explained church attendance stability in early adulthood., (© 2021 Society for Research on Adolescence.)

Background: While COVID-19 vaccines reduce adverse outcomes, post-vaccination SARS-CoV-2 infection remains problematic. We sought to identify community factors impacting risk for breakthrough infections (BTI) among fully vaccinated persons by rurality., Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of US adults sampled between January 1 and December 20, 2021, from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C). Using Kaplan-Meier and Cox-Proportional Hazards models adjusted for demographic differences and comorbid conditions, we assessed impact of rurality, county vaccine hesitancy, and county vaccination rates on risk of BTI over 180 days following two mRNA COVID-19 vaccinations between January 1 and September 21, 2021. Additionally, Cox Proportional Hazards models assessed the risk of infection among adults without documented vaccinations. We secondarily assessed the odds of hospitalization and adverse COVID-19 events based on vaccination status using multivariable logistic regression during the study period., Results: Our study population included 566,128 vaccinated and 1,724,546 adults without documented vaccination. Among vaccinated persons, rurality was associated with an increased risk of BTI (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.42-1.64, for urban-adjacent rural and 1.65, 1.42-1.91, for nonurban-adjacent rural) compared to urban dwellers. Compared to low vaccine-hesitant counties, higher risks of BTI were associated with medium (1.07, 1.02-1.12) and high (1.33, 1.23-1.43) vaccine-hesitant counties. Compared to counties with high vaccination rates, a higher risk of BTI was associated with dwelling in counties with low vaccination rates (1.34, 1.27-1.43) but not medium vaccination rates (1.00, 0.95-1.07). Community factors were also associated with higher odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection among persons without a documented vaccination. Vaccinated persons with SARS-CoV-2 infection during the study period had significantly lower odds of hospitalization and adverse events across all geographic areas and community exposures., Conclusions: Our findings suggest that community factors are associated with an increased risk of BTI, particularly in rural areas and counties with high vaccine hesitancy. Communities, such as those in rural and disproportionately vaccine hesitant areas, and certain groups at high risk for adverse breakthrough events, including immunosuppressed/compromised persons, should continue to receive public health focus, targeted interventions, and consistent guidance to help manage community spread as vaccination protection wanes., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Anzalone et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Purpose: Rural communities are among the most underserved and resource-scarce populations in the United States. However, there are limited data on COVID-19 outcomes in rural America. This study aims to compare hospitalization rates and inpatient mortality among SARS-CoV-2-infected persons stratified by residential rurality., Methods: This retrospective cohort study from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) assesses 1,033,229 patients from 44 US hospital systems diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection between January 2020 and June 2021. Primary outcomes were hospitalization and all-cause inpatient mortality. Secondary outcomes were utilization of supplemental oxygen, invasive mechanical ventilation, vasopressor support, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, and incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events or hospital readmission. The analytic approach estimates 90-day survival in hospitalized patients and associations between rurality, hospitalization, and inpatient adverse events while controlling for major risk factors using Kaplan-Meier survival estimates and mixed-effects logistic regression., Findings: Of 1,033,229 diagnosed COVID-19 patients included, 186,882 required hospitalization. After adjusting for demographic differences and comorbidities, urban-adjacent and nonurban-adjacent rural dwellers with COVID-19 were more likely to be hospitalized (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.18, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16-1.21 and aOR 1.29, CI 1.24-1.1.34) and to die or be transferred to hospice (aOR 1.36, CI 1.29-1.43 and 1.37, CI 1.26-1.50), respectively. All secondary outcomes were more likely among rural patients., Conclusions: Hospitalization, inpatient mortality, and other adverse outcomes are higher among rural persons with COVID-19, even after adjusting for demographic differences and comorbidities. Further research is needed to understand the factors that drive health disparities in rural populations., (© 2022 The Authors. The Journal of Rural Health published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of National Rural Health Association.)

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) disproportionally affects pregnant women and their newborn; however, little is known about variables that modulate maternal-fetal immune response to infection., Methods: We prospectively studied socioeconomic, biologic, and clinical factors affecting humoral immunity in 87 unvaccinated pregnant women hospitalized in Buenos Aires for symptoms consistent with COVID-19., Results: The number of days between symptom onset and childbirth predicted maternal and newborn virus spike protein receptor binding domain (RBD)-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG). These findings suggest newborns may benefit less when mothers deliver soon after COVID-19 infection. Similarly, a longer time between symptom onset and birth predicted higher in utero transfer of maternal IgG and its concentration in cord blood. Older gestational age at birth was associated with lower maternal to cord blood IgG ratio. Of women with confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, 87% developed RBD-specific IgA responses in breast milk within 96 hours of childbirth. IgA was not significantly associated with time from infection but correlated with maternal serum IgG and placental transfer., Conclusions: These results demonstrate the combined role of biologic, clinical, and socioeconomic variables associated with maternal RBD-specific antibodies and supports early vaccination strategies for COVID-19 in socioeconomically vulnerable pregnant women., Clinical Trials Registration: NCT04362956., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Substantial research is dedicated to understanding the aging-related dynamics among individual differences in level, change, and variation across physical and cognitive abilities. Evaluating replicability and synthesizing these findings has been limited by differences in measurements and samples, and by study design and statistical analyses confounding between-person differences with within-person changes. In this article, we conducted a coordinated analysis and summary meta-analysis of new results on the aging-related dynamics linking pulmonary function and cognitive performance., Methods: We performed coordinated analysis of bivariate growth models in data from 20,586 participants across eight longitudinal studies to examine individual differences in baseline level, rate of change, and occasion-specific variability in pulmonary and cognitive functioning. Results were summarized using meta-analysis., Results: We found consistent but weak baseline and longitudinal associations in levels of pulmonary and cognitive functioning, but no associations in occasion-specific variability., Conclusions: Results provide limited evidence for a consistent link between simultaneous changes in pulmonary and cognitive function in a normal aging population. Further research is required to understand patterns of onset of decline and differences in rates of change within and across physical and cognitive functioning domains, both within-individuals and across countries and birth cohorts. Coordinated analysis provides an efficient and rigorous approach for replicating and comparing results across independent longitudinal studies., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

In 1918, Fisher suggested that his research team had consistently found inflated cousin correlations. He also commented that because a cousin sample with minimal selection bias was not available the cause of the inflation could not be addressed, leaving this inflation as a challenge still to be solved. In the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (the NLSY79, the NLSY97, and the NLSY-Children/Young Adult datasets), there are thousands of available cousin pairs. Those in the NLSYC/YA are obtained approximately without selection. In this paper, we address Fisher's challenge using these data. Further, we also evaluate the possibility of fitting ACE models using only cousin pairs, including full cousins, half-cousins, and quarter-cousins. To have any chance at success in such a restricted kinship domain requires an available and highly-reliable phenotype; we use adult height in our analysis. Results provide a possible answer to Fisher's challenge, and demonstrate the potential for using cousin pairs in a stand-alone analysis (as well as in combination with other biometrical designs).

The potential for modern coalfield methanogenesis was assessed using formation water from the Illinois Basin, Powder River Basin and Cook Inlet gas field as inocula for nutrient-replete incubations amended with C1-C5 fatty acids as presumed intermediates formed during anaerobic coal biodegradation. Instead of the expected rapid mineralization of these substrates, methanogenesis was inordinately slow (∼1 μmol day-1), following long lag periods (>100 days), and methane yields typically did not reach stoichiometrically expected levels. However, a gene microarray confirmed the potential for a wide variety of microbiological functions, including methanogenesis, at all sites. The Cook Inlet incubations produced methane at a relatively rapid rate when amended with butyrate (r = 0.98; p = 0.001) or valerate (r = 0.84; p = 0.04), a result that significantly correlated with the number of positive mcr gene sequence probes from the functional gene microarray and was consistent with the in situ detection of C4-C5 alkanoic acids. This finding highlighted the role of syntrophy for the biodegradation of the softer lignite and subbituminous coal in this formation, but methanogenesis from the harder subbituminous and bituminous coals in the other fields was less apparent. We conclude that coal methanogenesis is probably not limited by the inherent lack of metabolic potential, the presence of alternate electron acceptors or the lack of available nutrients, but more likely restricted by the inherent recalcitrance of the coal itself.

The National Longitudinal Survey of Youth datasets (NLSY79; NLSY-Children/Young Adults; NLSY97) have extensive family pedigree information contained within them. These data sources are based on probability sampling, a longitudinal design, and a cross-generational and within-family data structure, with hundreds of phenotypes relevant to behavior genetic (BG) researchers, as well as to other developmental and family researchers. These datasets provide a unique and powerful source of information for BG researchers. But much of the information required for biometrical modeling has been hidden, and has required substantial programming effort to uncover-until recently. Our research team has spent over 20 years developing kinship links to genetically inform biometrical modeling. In the most recent release of kinship links from two of the NLSY datasets, the direct kinship indicators included in the 2006 surveys allowed successful and unambiguous linking of over 94 % of the potential pairs. In this paper, we provide details for research teams interested in using the NLSY data portfolio to conduct BG (and other family-oriented) research.

Better understanding risk factors for the development of adolescent emotional and behavioral problems can help with intervention and prevention efforts. Previous studies have found that an early menarcheal age predicts several adolescent problems, including depressive symptoms, delinquency, and early age at first intercourse. Few studies, nevertheless, have explicitly tested (a) whether the associations with menarcheal age vary across racial/ethnic groups or (b) whether the sources of the associations are within-families (i.e., consistent with a direct, causal link) or only between-families (i.e., due to selection or confounding factors). The current study analyzed data from a nationally representative US Sample of females (N = 5,637). We examined whether race/ethnicity moderated the associations between early menarche and several adolescent problems by using multiple-group analyses and we examined the degree to which genetic and environmental factors shared by family members account for the associations by comparing sisters and cousins with differing menarcheal ages. Menarcheal age predicted subsequent depressive symptoms, delinquency, and early age at first intercourse in the population. The magnitudes of the associations were similar across all racial/ethnic groups for all outcomes. The within-family associations (i.e., when comparing siblings and cousins with different menarcheal age) were large and statistically significant when predicting early intercourse, but not the other outcomes. The findings suggest that selection or confounding factors account for the associations between menarcheal age and subsequent depressive symptoms and delinquency, whereas the independent association between menarcheal age and early age at first intercourse is consistent with a direct, causal effect.

Many data structures, particularly time series data, are naturally seasonal, cyclical, or otherwise circular. Past graphical methods for time series have focused on linear plots. In this article, we move graphical analysis onto the circle. We focus on 2 particular methods, one old and one new. Rose diagrams are circular histograms and can be produced in several different forms using the RRose software system. In addition, we propose, develop, illustrate, and provide software support for a new circular graphical method, called Wrap-Around Time Series Plots (WATS Plots), which is a graphical method useful to support time series analyses in general but in particular in relation to interrupted time series designs. We illustrate the use of WATS Plots with an interrupted time series design evaluating the effect of the Oklahoma City bombing on birthrates in Oklahoma County during the 10 years surrounding the bombing of the Murrah Building in Oklahoma City. We compare WATS Plots with linear time series representations and overlay them with smoothing and error bands. Each method is shown to have advantages in relation to the other; in our example, the WATS Plots more clearly show the existence and effect size of the fertility differential.

Understanding the impact of clinical findings in discriminating between possible causes of a patient's presentation is essential in clinical judgment. A balance beam is a natural physical analogue that can accurately represent the combination of several pieces of evidence with varying ability to discriminate between disease hypotheses. Calculation of Bayes' theorem using log(posterior odds) as a function of log(prior odds) and the logarithms of the evidence's likelihood ratios maps onto the physical forces affecting objects placed on a balance beam. We describe the rules governing the functioning of tokens representing clinical findings in the comparison of 2 competing diseases. The likelihood ratios corresponding to positive (LR+) or negative (LR-) observations for each symptom determine the lateral position at which the symptom's token is placed on the beam, using a weight if the finding is present and a helium balloon if it is absent. We discuss how a balance beam could represent concepts of dynamic specificity (due to changes in competitor diseases' probabilities) and dynamic sensitivity (due to class-conditional independence). Utility-based thresholds for acting on a diagnosis could be represented by moving the balance beam's fulcrum. It is suggested that a balance beam can be a useful aid for students learning clinical diagnosis, allowing them to build on existing intuitive understanding to develop an appreciation of how evidence combines to influence degree of belief. The balance beam could also facilitate exploration of the potential impact of available questions or investigations., (© The Author(s) 2014.)

We describe a balance beam aid for instruction in diagnosis (BBAID) and demonstrate its potential use in supplementing the training of medical students to diagnose acute chest pain. We suggest the BBAID helps students understand the process of diagnosis because the impact of tokens (weights and helium balloons) attached to a beam at different distances from the fulcrum is analogous to the impact of evidence to the relative support for 2 diseases. The BBAID presents a list of potential findings and allows students to specify whether each is present, absent, or unknown. It displays the likelihood ratios corresponding to a positive (LR+) or negative (LR-) observation for each symptom, for any pair of diseases. For each specified finding, a token is placed on the beam at a location whose distance from the fulcrum is proportional to the finding's log(LR): a downward force (a weight) if the finding is present and a lifting force (a balloon) if it is absent. Combining the physical torques of multiple tokens is mathematically identical to applying Bayes' theorem to multiple independent findings, so the balance beam is a high-fidelity metaphor. Seven first-year medical students and 3 faculty members consulted the BBAID while diagnosing brief patient case vignettes. Student comments indicated the program is usable, helpful for understanding pertinent positive and negative findings' usefulness in particular situations, and welcome as a reference or self-test. All students attended the effect of the tokens on the beam, although some stated they did not use the numerical statistics. Faculty noted the BBAID might be particularly helpful in reminding students of diseases that should not be missed and identifying pertinent findings to ask for., (© The Author(s) 2014.)

The microbial metabolism of hydrocarbons is increasingly associated with the corrosion of carbon steel in sulfate-rich marine waters. However, how such transformations influence metal biocorrosion in the absence of an electron acceptor is not fully recognized. We grew a marine alkane-utilizing, sulfate-reducing bacterium, Desulfoglaeba alkanexedens, with either sulfate or Methanospirillum hungatei as electron acceptors, and tested the ability of the cultures to catalyze metal corrosion. Axenically, D. alkanexedens had a higher instantaneous corrosion rate and produced more pits in carbon steel coupons than when the same organism was grown in syntrophic co-culture with the methanogen. Since anaerobic hydrocarbon biodegradation pathways converge on fatty acid intermediates, the corrosive ability of a known fatty acid-oxidizing syntrophic bacterium, Syntrophus aciditrophicus was compared when grown in pure culture or in co-culture with a H2-utilizing sulfate-reducing bacterium (Desulfovibrio sp., strain G11) or a methanogen (M. hungatei). The instantaneous corrosion rates in the cultures were not substantially different, but the syntrophic, sulfate-reducing co-culture produced more pits in coupons than other combinations of microorganisms. Lactate-grown cultures of strain G11 had higher instantaneous corrosion rates and coupon pitting compared to the same organism cultured with hydrogen as an electron donor. Thus, if sulfate is available as an electron acceptor, the same microbial assemblages produce sulfide and low molecular weight organic acids that exacerbated biocorrosion. Despite these trends, a surprisingly high degree of variation was encountered with the corrosion assessments. Differences in biomass, initial substrate concentration, rates of microbial activity or the degree of end product formation did not account for the variations. We are forced to ascribe such differences to the metallurgical properties of the coupons.

Objectives: In this trial, we compared Child Protective Services (CPS) recidivism outcomes between the home-based SafeCare (SC) model for child neglect and comparable home-based services, but without SC modules, for parents in the CPS system across 2 quality control strategies: coached (C) and uncoached implementation. SC is a home-based behavioral skills training model designed for neglecting or maltreating parents. The study was conducted in a scaled-up, statewide implementation setting., Methods: Two thousand one hundred seventy-five maltreating parents, treated by 219 home visitors, were enrolled and treated in a 2 × 2 (SC versus services as usual × C versus uncoached implementation strategy) randomized cluster experiment. Cases were followed for an average of 6 years for CPS recidivism events. Subpopulation analyses were conducted for parents meeting customary SC inclusion criteria., Results: Consistently significant main effects in favor of SC were found across simple and more complex modeling approaches (hazard ratios = 0.74-0.83). Larger effects were found among the subpopulation meeting customary SC inclusion criteria. C implementation yielded smaller and occasionally significant effects in analyses that included more diverse cases falling outside customary SC inclusion criteria., Conclusions: Findings support the adoption and use of SC within CPS home-based services systems. C implementation may be especially valuable for cases where the client-model fit is less strong.

The soil microbiome is responsible for mediating key ecological processes; however, little is known about its sensitivity to climate change. Observed increases in global temperatures and alteration to rainfall patterns, due to anthropogenic release of greenhouse gases, will likely have a strong influence on soil microbial communities and ultimately the ecosystem services they provide. Therefore, it is vital to understand how soil microbial communities will respond to future climate change scenarios. To this end, we surveyed the abundance, diversity and structure of microbial communities over a 2-year period from a long-term in situ warming experiment that experienced a moderate natural drought. We found the warming treatment and soil water budgets strongly influence bacterial population size and diversity. In normal precipitation years, the warming treatment significantly increased microbial population size 40-150% but decreased diversity and significantly changed the composition of the community when compared with the unwarmed controls. However during drought conditions, the warming treatment significantly reduced soil moisture thereby creating unfavorable growth conditions that led to a 50-80% reduction in the microbial population size when compared with the control. Warmed plots also saw an increase in species richness, diversity and evenness; however, community composition was unaffected suggesting that few phylotypes may be active under these stressful conditions. Our results indicate that under warmed conditions, ecosystem water budget regulates the abundance and diversity of microbial populations and that rainfall timing is critical at the onset of drought for sustaining microbial populations.

Individuals performing an experimental cognitive task have a choice whether to favor accuracy, speed, or weight them both equally. Models of speed/ accuracy tradeoff have been proposed in the assessment literature ( van der Linden, 2007 ) and experimental literature ( Ratcliff & Rouder, 1998 ). However, these models do not estimate individual differences in choice of speed/ accuracy tradeoff at between- and within-subjects levels. The top of Figure 1 presents the equations and path diagram for the SATin model. Individual differences in speed/ accuracy tradeoff will be modeled at two levels with, 1) variability in Tradeoff (between-subject level, Level 2) and 2) variability in c (within-subject level, Level 1). An individual's Tradeoff factor score represents the individual's distributional position relative to others regarding whether they favor speed (values < 0), accuracy (values > 0), or neither (value = 0). A negative c indicates that the individual is trading off speed and accuracy for these particular trials, whereas a positive and zero c indicate the individual is not trading off. [Figure: see text] Panels 1 and 2 illustrate Simpson's paradox, where speed/ accuracy tradeoff occurs in opposing directions at between- and within-subject levels. This highlights the need for a multi-level model as the researcher would draw opposing conclusions by observing only one of these levels. Simulations studies compared the SATin model to a popular model in cognitive psychology that uses speed alone to estimate ability. SATin outperformed this model by accounting for substantially more variance in actual ability.

This article proposes 2 new approaches to test a nonzero population correlation (rho): the hypothesis-imposed univariate sampling bootstrap (HI) and the observed-imposed univariate sampling bootstrap (OI). The authors simulated correlated populations with various combinations of normal and skewed variates. With alpha set=.05, N> or =10, and rho< or =0.4, empirical Type I error rates of the parametric r and the conventional bivariate sampling bootstrap reached .168 and .081, respectively, whereas the largest error rates of the HI and the OI were .079 and .062. On the basis of these results, the authors suggest that the OI is preferable in alpha control to parametric approaches if the researcher believes the population is nonnormal and wishes to test for nonzero rhos of moderate size., (Copyright (c) 2008 APA.)

Many observers have reported observations of green light emanating from severe thunderstorms in the midwestern United States. Spectral measurements have demonstrated that the dominant wavelength of the light is in the green portion of the visible spectrum and that this is not just a subjective impression. According to the theory proposed by Bohren and Fraser [Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 74, 2185 (1993)], two effects combine to produce green light from thunderstorms. First, incident solar radiation is reddened by selective scattering by air molecules and particles in the atmosphere before it enters the cloud. Second, the radiation that passes through an optically thick cloud is attenuated in the longer wavelengths because of selective absorption by liquid water. Model calculations indicate that realizable combinations of mean drop diameters, mean liquid-water contents, and cloud thicknesses can satisfy the conditions required for shifting the dominant wavelength of the incident solar radiation to green.

Observations of the spectrum of light from thunderstorms indicate that the radiance amplitude of the near-IR portion of the spectrum is often relatively greater in comparison with the amplitude of the radiance of the visible portion of the spectrum than it is in the spectrum of solar radiation at the surface. Observational data suggest that two mechanisms may cause this effect. The first is the reduction in the shorter wavelengths due to selective scattering, and the second is selective reflection from foliage.

A study of myocardial Mg, based on 1236 samples obtained at post-mortem examinations, is reported. There was a lower Mg level in samples from subjects certified to have died from IHD causes, by about 13%, than in samples from other deaths. There were lower levels, by about 5% where death had been lingering, compared to sudden, and there was a large range, equivalent to +/- 12%, in the mean Mg levels in samples from different areas. Various possible sources of bias are briefly considered.

In a study of the blood lead levels of 626 healthy blood donors no differences were found between men and women, but there was a significant increase with age. Resident donors had a higher blood lead than students, and the level in residents increased with living in the Aberystwyth area up to about 20 years. The levels in the students did not increase with residence in Aberystwyth. No differences were found in the blood lead of donors living in different wards of Aberystwyth and none between the blood lead of donors living in the rural area and those in the town. Almost half of the local resident donors had a level above the "normal" range.

A lightning flash that struck the 150-meter weather tower at Kennedy Space Center was studied by several research groups using varioul techniques. The flash had unusually large peak currents and a stepped leader of relatively short duration. The charged regions neutralized by the three return strokes were located within a horizontal layer between heights of about 6 and 8 kilometers, where environmental temperatures were about -10 degrees to -20 degrees C. The charge source for the first return stroke coincided with a vertical shaft of precipitation inferred to have been graupel or hail. Charge sources for subsequent strokes were near the edge of the detectable precipitation echo. The overall channel length was about 10 kilometers. A Vertically oriented intracloud discharge occurred after the three return strokes.

The anterior descending coronary artery was obtained from each of 160 subjects aged 2 to 30 years who died suddenly. The arteries were examined for early atheromatous changes and the mothers were asked about the way the children had been fed during early infancy. No evidence was found for the hypothesis that breast feeding confers protection against coronary artery disease. The mothers' smoking history at the time of the birth bore no relationship to the pathological findings in the arteries. It therefore seems unlikely that the type of feeding in infancy, or maternal smoking during pregnancy, are factors influencing the risk of coronary disease.

In a study of myocardial magnesium and calcium levels in 1236 samples of heart muscle taken at necropsy in 28 centres in England and Wales, samples from patients who died from ischaemic heart disease had a mean Mg level 23 microgram/g lower and a mean Ca level 4 microgram/g higher than the mean for the total series after allowance had been made for a number of relevant factors. Mg levels were slightly higher and Ca levels slightly lower in sudden than in lingering deaths. There was no evidence of any association between the tissue levels and the levels of Mg or Ca in domestic tap-water, but there was a weak association between mean tissue Mg level and IHD mortality rates in the various towns.

The effects of lead, iron, copper, and zinc ions on delta-aminolevulinic acid dehydratase from red blood cell haemolysates in humans, both in the absence and presence of plasma proteins, have been investigated. delta-aminolevulinic acid dehydratase (ALAD) was not found to be a specific indicator of blood lead concentrations since it was also inhibited by copper and activated by zinc. Plasma protein protected the enzyme from both inhibition and activation. ALAD activity was found to be an indicator of the total metal ion concentration in the blood and was therefore considered to be of doubtful value in screening large populations for increased lead absorption.

The results of an investigation show that there is no statistically significant excess of blood group A in cases of carcinoma of the oesophagus or in cases of benign prostatic hyperplasia.

There was a statistically significant excess of Group A blood in a series of ulcer-cancers. It is concluded that an ulcer in a patient of Group A is more liable to become malignant than one in a patient of Group O.