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Abstract Background Molecular tools may help to uncover closely related and still diverging species from a wide variety of taxa and provide insight into the mechanisms, pace and geography of marine speciation. There is a certain controversy on the phylogeography and speciation modes of species-groups with an Eastern Atlantic-Western Indian Ocean distribution, with previous studies suggesting that older events (Miocene) and/or more recent (Pleistocene) oceanographic processes could have influenced the phylogeny of marine taxa. The spiny lobster genus Palinurus allows for testing among speciation hypotheses, since it has a particular distribution with two groups of three species each in the Northeastern Atlantic (P. elephas, P. mauritanicus and P. charlestoni) and Southeastern Atlantic and Southwestern Indian Oceans (P. gilchristi, P. delagoae and P. barbarae). In the present study, we obtain a more complete understanding of the phylogenetic relationships among these species through a combined dataset with both nuclear and mitochondrial markers, by testing alternative hypotheses on both the mutation rate and tree topology under the recently developed approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods. Results Our analyses support a North-to-South speciation pattern in Palinurus with all the South-African species forming a monophyletic clade nested within the Northern Hemisphere species. Coalescent-based ABC methods allowed us to reject the previously proposed hypothesis of a Middle Miocene speciation event related with the closure of the Tethyan Seaway. Instead, divergence times obtained for Palinurus species using the combined mtDNA-microsatellite dataset and standard mutation rates for mtDNA agree with known glaciation-related processes occurring during the last 2 my. Conclusion The Palinurus speciation pattern is a typical example of a series of rapid speciation events occurring within a group, with very short branches separating different species. Our results support the hypothesis that recent climate change-related oceanographic processes have influenced the phylogeny of marine taxa, with most Palinurus species originating during the last two million years. The present study highlights the value of new coalescent-based statistical methods such as ABC for testing different speciation hypotheses using molecular data.

Environmental change is intensifying the biodiversity crisis and threatening species across the tree of life. Conservation genomics can help inform conservation actions and slow biodiversity loss. However, more training, appropriate use of novel genomic methods and communication with managers are needed. Here, we review practical guidance to improve applied conservation genomics. We share insights aimed at ensuring effectiveness of conservation actions around three themes: (1) improving pedagogy and training in conservation genomics including for online global audiences, (2) conducting rigorous population genomic analyses properly considering theory, marker types and data interpretation and (3) facilitating communication and collaboration between managers and researchers. We aim to update students and professionals and expand their conservation toolkit with genomic principles and recent approaches for conserving and managing biodiversity. The biodiversity crisis is a global problem and, as such, requires international involvement, training, collaboration and frequent reviews of the literature and workshops as we do here., (© 2023 The Authors. Molecular Ecology Resources published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The European wildcat population in Scotland is considered critically endangered as a result of hybridization with introduced domestic cats, 1 , 2 though the time frame over which this gene flow has taken place is unknown. Here, using genome data from modern, museum, and ancient samples, we reconstructed the trajectory and dated the decline of the local wildcat population from viable to severely hybridized. We demonstrate that although domestic cats have been present in Britain for over 2,000 years, 3 the onset of hybridization was only within the last 70 years. Our analyses reveal that the domestic ancestry present in modern wildcats is markedly over-represented in many parts of the genome, including the major histocompatibility complex (MHC). We hypothesize that introgression provides wildcats with protection against diseases harbored and introduced by domestic cats, and that this selection contributes to maladaptive genetic swamping through linkage drag. Using the case of the Scottish wildcat, we demonstrate the importance of local ancestry estimates to both understand the impacts of hybridization in wild populations and support conservation efforts to mitigate the consequences of anthropogenic and environmental change., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Cancer is a highly complex and heterogeneous disease and immunotherapy has shown promise as a therapeutic approach. The increased resolution afforded by single-cell analysis offers the hope of finding and characterizing previously underappreciated populations of cells that could prove useful in understanding cancer progression and treatment. Urologic and prostate cancers are inherently heterogeneous diseases, and the potential for single-cell analysis to help understand and develop immunotherapeutic approaches to treat these diseases is very exciting. In this review, we view cancer immunotherapy through a single-cell lens and discuss the state-of-the-art technologies that enable advances in this field., Competing Interests: Disclosure The authors declare no commercial or financial conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Hybridisation can lead to homoploid hybrid speciation, i.e., the origin of new species without change in chromosome number between parents and offspring. Central to homoploid hybrid speciation is the role of hybridisation in the establishment of reproductive isolation between the hybrid and the parental species in the early stages of speciation, when typically all species occur at least partly in sympatry. In this work we analyse genome-wide polymorphism data obtained by transcriptome sequencing of the British hybrid species Oxford ragwort (Senecio squalidus, Asteraceae), its two Italian parental species (S. aethnensis and S. chrysanthemifolius) and their naturally occurring hybrids on Mt Etna (Italy). We show that Oxford ragwort most likely originated from de novo hybridisation between its two Italian parental species whilst they were in cultivation in British gardens at the turn of the 18th century. Reproductive isolation between the new hybrid species and its parental species probably resulted from inheritance of genetic incompatibilities between the two parental species and subsequent ecological segregation - both of which have been shown in previous studies. Our results imply that S. squalidus meets the most stringent criteria set forth to identify homoploid hybrid speciation, and call attention to the creative role of hybridisation in responding to novel environmental conditions., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Gain-of-function (GOF) variants in K + channels cause severe childhood epilepsies, but there are no mechanisms to explain how increased K + currents lead to network hyperexcitability. Here, we introduce a human Na + -activated K + (K Na ) channel variant (KCNT1-Y796H) into mice and, using a multiplatform approach, find motor cortex hyperexcitability and early-onset seizures, phenotypes strikingly similar to those of human patients. Although the variant increases K Na currents in cortical excitatory and inhibitory neurons, there is an increase in the K Na current across subthreshold voltages only in inhibitory neurons, particularly in those with non-fast-spiking properties, resulting in inhibitory-neuron-specific impairments in excitability and action potential (AP) generation. We further observe evidence of synaptic rewiring, including increases in homotypic synaptic connectivity, accompanied by network hyperexcitability and hypersynchronicity. These findings support inhibitory-neuron-specific mechanisms in mediating the epileptogenic effects of KCNT1 channel GOF, offering cell-type-specific currents and effects as promising targets for therapeutic intervention., Competing Interests: Declaration of Interests S.C. serves a consultant for Q-State Biosciences. D.B.G. is a founder of and holds equity in Praxis, serves as a consultant to AstraZeneca, and has received research support from Janssen, Gilead, Biogen, AstraZeneca, and UCB. M.J.B. has received research support from Janssen. The remaining authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Relaxed molecular clock methods allow the use of genomic data to estimate divergence times across the tree of life. This is most commonly achieved in Bayesian analyses where the molecular clock is calibrated a priori through the integration of fossil information. Alternatively, fossil calibrations can be used a posteriori, to transform previously estimated relative divergence times that were inferred without considering fossil information, into absolute divergence times. However, as branch length is the product of the rate of evolution and the duration in time of the considered branch, the extent to which a posteriori calibrated, relative divergence time methods can disambiguate time and rate, is unclear. Here, we use forward evolutionary simulations and compare a priori and a posteriori calibration strategies using different molecular clock methods and models. Specifically, we compare three Bayesian methods, the strict clock, uncorrelated clock and autocorrelated clock, and the non-Bayesian algorithm implemented in RelTime. We simulate phylogenies with multiple, independent substitution rate changes and show that correct timescales cannot be inferred without the use of calibrations. Under our simulation conditions, a posteriori calibration strategies almost invariably inferred incorrect rate changes and divergence times. The a priori integration of fossil calibrations is fundamental in these cases to improve the accuracy of the estimated divergence times. Relative divergence times and absolute timescales derived by calibrating relative timescales to geological time a posteriori appear to be less reliable than a priori calibrated, timescales., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.)

Advances in phenology (the annual timing of species' life-cycles) in response to climate change are generally viewed as bioindicators of climate change, but have not been considered as predictors of range expansions. Here, we show that phenology advances combine with the number of reproductive cycles per year (voltinism) to shape abundance and distribution trends in 130 species of British Lepidoptera, in response to ~0.5 °C spring-temperature warming between 1995 and 2014. Early adult emergence in warm years resulted in increased within- and between-year population growth for species with multiple reproductive cycles per year (n = 39 multivoltine species). By contrast, early emergence had neutral or negative consequences for species with a single annual reproductive cycle (n = 91 univoltine species), depending on habitat specialisation. We conclude that phenology advances facilitate polewards range expansions in species exhibiting plasticity for both phenology and voltinism, but may inhibit expansion by less flexible species.

Finding outlier loci underlying local adaptation is challenging and is best approached by suitable sampling design and rigorous method selection. In this study, we aimed to detect outlier loci (single nucleotide polymorphisms, SNPs) at the local scale by using Aleppo pine ( Pinus halepensis ), a drought resistant conifer that has colonized many habitats in the Mediterranean Basin, as the model species. We used a nested sampling approach that considered replicated altitudinal gradients for three contrasting sites. We genotyped samples at 294 SNPs located in genomic regions selected to maximize outlier detection. We then applied three different statistical methodologies-Two Bayesian outlier methods and one latent factor principal component method-To identify outlier loci. No SNP was an outlier for all three methods, while eight SNPs were detected by at least two methods and 17 were detected only by one method. From the intersection of outlier SNPs, only one presented an allelic frequency pattern associated with the elevational gradient across the three sites. In a context of multiple populations under similar selective pressures, our results underline the need for careful examination of outliers detected in genomic scans before considering them as candidates for convergent adaptation.

Here we present an open-source R package 'meaRtools' that provides a platform for analyzing neuronal networks recorded on Microelectrode Arrays (MEAs). Cultured neuronal networks monitored with MEAs are now being widely used to characterize in vitro models of neurological disorders and to evaluate pharmaceutical compounds. meaRtools provides core algorithms for MEA spike train analysis, feature extraction, statistical analysis and plotting of multiple MEA recordings with multiple genotypes and treatments. meaRtools functionality covers novel solutions for spike train analysis, including algorithms to assess electrode cross-correlation using the spike train tiling coefficient (STTC), mutual information, synchronized bursts and entropy within cultured wells. Also integrated is a solution to account for bursts variability originating from mixed-cell neuronal cultures. The package provides a statistical platform built specifically for MEA data that can combine multiple MEA recordings and compare extracted features between different genetic models or treatments. We demonstrate the utilization of meaRtools to successfully identify epilepsy-like phenotypes in neuronal networks from Celf4 knockout mice. The package is freely available under the GPL license (GPL> = 3) and is updated frequently on the CRAN web-server repository. The package, along with full documentation can be downloaded from: https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/meaRtools/., Competing Interests: I have read the journal's policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: DBG reports Equity from Pairnomix and Praxis, personal fees from Eli Lilly (travel honorarium) and AstraZeneca and research grants from Janssen, Gilead, Biogen and UCB. QW declares affiliation with and employment by Simcere Diagnostics Co, Ltd. MAB declares affiliation with and employment by Axion BioSystems. All other authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

There is currently much debate about how much the genetic heritability of complex traits is due to very rare alleles. This issue is important because it determines sampling strategies for genetic association studies. Several recent theoretical papers based on a pleiotropic model for trait evolution suggest that it is possible that a large proportion of the genetic variance could be explained by rare alleles. This model assumes that mutations with a large effect on fitness also tend to have large positive or negative effects on phenotypic traits. We show that conclusions based on standard diffusion results are generally applicable to simulations of whole genomes with overlapping generations in a finite population, although the variance contribution of rare alleles is somewhat smaller than theoretical predictions. We show that under many scenarios the pleiotropic model predicts trait distributions that are unrealistically leptokurtic. We argue that this imposes a limit on the relationship between fitness and trait effects.

The recent advent of high-throughput sequencing and genotyping technologies makes it possible to produce, easily and cost effectively, large amounts of detailed data on the genotype composition of populations. Detecting locus-specific effects may help identify those genes that have been, or are currently, targeted by natural selection. How best to identify these selected regions, loci, or single nucleotides remains a challenging issue. Here, we introduce a new model-based method, called SelEstim, to distinguish putative selected polymorphisms from the background of neutral (or nearly neutral) ones and to estimate the intensity of selection at the former. The underlying population genetic model is a diffusion approximation for the distribution of allele frequency in a population subdivided into a number of demes that exchange migrants. We use a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for sampling from the joint posterior distribution of the model parameters, in a hierarchical Bayesian framework. We present evidence from stochastic simulations, which demonstrates the good power of SelEstim to identify loci targeted by selection and to estimate the strength of selection acting on these loci, within each deme. We also reanalyze a subset of SNP data from the Stanford HGDP-CEPH Human Genome Diversity Cell Line Panel to illustrate the performance of SelEstim on real data. In agreement with previous studies, our analyses point to a very strong signal of positive selection upstream of the LCT gene, which encodes for the enzyme lactase-phlorizin hydrolase and is associated with adult-type hypolactasia. The geographical distribution of the strength of positive selection across the Old World matches the interpolated map of lactase persistence phenotype frequencies, with the strongest selection coefficients in Europe and in the Indus Valley.

The estimation of parameters in molecular evolution may be biased when some processes are not considered. For example, the estimation of selection at the molecular level using codon-substitution models can have an upward bias when recombination is ignored. Here we address the joint estimation of recombination, molecular adaptation and substitution rates from coding sequences using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). We describe the implementation of a regression-based strategy for choosing subsets of summary statistics for coding data, and show that this approach can accurately infer recombination allowing for intracodon recombination breakpoints, molecular adaptation and codon substitution rates. We demonstrate that our ABC approach can outperform other analytical methods under a variety of evolutionary scenarios. We also show that although the choice of the codon-substitution model is important, our inferences are robust to a moderate degree of model misspecification. In addition, we demonstrate that our approach can accurately choose the evolutionary model that best fits the data, providing an alternative for when the use of full-likelihood methods is impracticable. Finally, we applied our ABC method to co-estimate recombination, substitution and molecular adaptation rates from 24 published human immunodeficiency virus 1 coding data sets.

We propose a two-step procedure for estimating multiple migration rates in an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) framework, accounting for global nuisance parameters. The approach is not limited to migration, but generally of interest for inference problems with multiple parameters and a modular structure (e.g. independent sets of demes or loci). We condition on a known, but complex demographic model of a spatially subdivided population, motivated by the reintroduction of Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) into Switzerland. In the first step, the global parameters ancestral mutation rate and male mating skew have been estimated for the whole population in Aeschbacher et al. (Genetics 2012; 192: 1027). In the second step, we estimate in this study the migration rates independently for clusters of demes putatively connected by migration. For large clusters (many migration rates), ABC faces the problem of too many summary statistics. We therefore assess by simulation if estimation per pair of demes is a valid alternative. We find that the trade-off between reduced dimensionality for the pairwise estimation on the one hand and lower accuracy due to the assumption of pairwise independence on the other depends on the number of migration rates to be inferred: the accuracy of the pairwise approach increases with the number of parameters, relative to the joint estimation approach. To distinguish between low and zero migration, we perform ABC-type model comparison between a model with migration and one without. Applying the approach to microsatellite data from Alpine ibex, we find no evidence for substantial gene flow via migration, except for one pair of demes in one direction., (© 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.)

In the last few years, dozens of studies have documented the detection of loci influenced by selection from genome scans in a wide range of non-model species. Many of those studies used amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers, which became popular for being easily applicable to any organism. However, because they are anonymous markers, AFLPs impose many challenges for their isolation and identification. Most recent AFLP genome scans used capillary electrophoresis (CE), which adds even more obstacles to the isolation of bands with a specific size for sequencing. These caveats might explain the extremely low number of studies that moved from the detection of outlier AFLP markers to their actual isolation and characterization. We document our efforts to characterize a set of outlier AFLP markers from a previous genome scan with CE in ocellated lizards (Lacerta lepida). Seven outliers were successfully isolated, cloned and sequenced. Their sequences are noncoding and show internal indels or polymorphic repetitive elements (microsatellites). Three outliers were converted into codominant markers by using specific internal primers to sequence and screen population variability from undigested DNA. Amplification in closely related lizard species was also achieved, revealing remarkable interspecific conservation in outlier loci sequences. We stress the importance of following up AFLP genome scans to validate selection signatures of outlier loci, but also report the main challenges and pitfalls that may be faced during the process.

The choice of summary statistics is a crucial step in approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Since statistics are often not sufficient, this choice involves a trade-off between loss of information and reduction of dimensionality. The latter may increase the efficiency of ABC. Here, we propose an approach for choosing summary statistics based on boosting, a technique from the machine-learning literature. We consider different types of boosting and compare them to partial least-squares regression as an alternative. To mitigate the lack of sufficiency, we also propose an approach for choosing summary statistics locally, in the putative neighborhood of the true parameter value. We study a demographic model motivated by the reintroduction of Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) into the Swiss Alps. The parameters of interest are the mean and standard deviation across microsatellites of the scaled ancestral mutation rate (θ(anc) = 4N(e)u) and the proportion of males obtaining access to matings per breeding season (ω). By simulation, we assess the properties of the posterior distribution obtained with the various methods. According to our criteria, ABC with summary statistics chosen locally via boosting with the L(2)-loss performs best. Applying that method to the ibex data, we estimate θ(anc)≈ 1.288 and find that most of the variation across loci of the ancestral mutation rate u is between 7.7 × 10(-4) and 3.5 × 10(-3) per locus per generation. The proportion of males with access to matings is estimated as ω≈ 0.21, which is in good agreement with recent independent estimates.

Genetic data have been widely used to reconstruct the demographic history of populations, including the estimation of migration rates, divergence times and relative admixture contribution from different populations. Recently, increasing interest has been given to the ability of genetic data to distinguish alternative models. One of the issues that has plagued this kind of inference is that ancestral shared polymorphism is often difficult to separate from admixture or gene flow. Here, we applied an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) approach to select the model that best fits microsatellite data among alternative splitting and admixture models. We performed a simulation study and showed that with reasonably large data sets (20 loci) it is possible to identify with a high level of accuracy the model that generated the data. This suggests that it is possible to distinguish genetic patterns due to past admixture events from those due to shared polymorphism (population split without admixture). We then apply this approach to microsatellite data from an endangered and endemic Iberian freshwater fish species, in which a clustering analysis suggested that one of the populations could be admixed. In contrast, our results suggest that the observed genetic patterns are better explained by a population split model without admixture.

A comprehensive knowledge on the genetic basis of coloration is crucial to understand how new colour phenotypes arise and how they contribute to the emergence of new species. Variation in melanocortin-1 receptor (Mc1r), a gene that has been reported as a target for repeated evolution in a wide range of vertebrate taxa, was assessed in European ocellated lizards (Lacerta lepida) to search for associations with melanin-based colour phenotypes. Lacerta lepida subspecies' distribution is associated with the three major bio-climatic regions in the Iberian Peninsula. A nonconserved and derived substitution (T162I) was associated with the L. l. nevadensis phenotype (prevalence of brown scales). Another substitution (S172C) was associated with the presence of black scales in both L. l. lepida and L. l. iberica, but no mutations were found to be associated with the higher proportion of black in L. l. iberica. Extensive genotyping of Mc1r along the contact zone between L. l. nevadensis and L. l. lepida revealed low gene flow (only two hybrids detected). The implications of these findings are discussed in the context of previous knowledge about the evolutionary history of ocellated lizards., (© 2011 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2011 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.)

Motivation: Dominant markers (DArTs and AFLPs) are commonly used for genetic analysis in the fields of evolutionary genetics, ecology and conservation of genetic resources. The recent prominence of these markers has coincided with renewed interest in detecting the effects of local selection and adaptation at the level of the genome., Results: We present Mcheza, an application for detecting loci under selection based on a well-evaluated F(ST)-outlier method. The application allows robust estimates to be made of model parameters (e.g. genome-wide average, neutral F(ST)), provides data import and export functions, iterative contour smoothing and generation of graphics in an easy to use graphical user interface with a computation engine that supports multicore processors for enhanced performance. Mcheza also provides functionality to mitigate common analytical errors when scanning for loci under selection., Availability: Mcheza is freely available under GPL version 3 from http://popgen.eu/soft/mcheza.

Pseudovivipary is an environmentally induced flowering abnormality in which vegetative shoots replace seminiferous (sexual) inflorescences. Pseudovivipary is usually retained in transplantation experiments, indicating that the trait is not solely induced by the growing environment. Pseudovivipary is the defining characteristic of Festuca vivipara, and arguably the only feature separating this species from its closest seminiferous relative, Festuca ovina. We performed phylogenetic and population genetic analysis on sympatric F. ovina and F. vivipara samples to establish whether pseudovivipary is an adaptive trait that accurately defines the separation of genetically distinct Festuca species. Chloroplast and nuclear marker-based analyses revealed that variation at a geographical level can exceed that between F. vivipara and F. ovina. We deduced that F. vivipara is a recent species that frequently arises independently within F. ovina populations and has not accumulated significant genetic differentiation from its progenitor. We inferred local gene flow between the species. We identified one amplified fragment length polymorphism marker that may be linked to a pseudovivipary-related region of the genome, and several other markers provide evidence of regional local adaptation in Festuca populations. We conclude that F. vivipara can only be appropriately recognized as a morphologically and ecologically distinct species; it lacks genetic differentiation from its relatives. This is the first report of a 'failure in normal flowering development' that repeatedly appears to be adaptive, such that the trait responsible for species recognition constantly reappears on a local basis.

Identification of loci with adaptive importance is a key step to understand the speciation process in natural populations, because those loci are responsible for phenotypic variation that affects fitness in different environments. We conducted an AFLP genome scan in populations of ocellated lizards (Lacerta lepida) to search for candidate loci influenced by selection along an environmental gradient in the Iberian Peninsula. This gradient is strongly influenced by climatic variables, and two subspecies can be recognized at the opposite extremes: L. lepida iberica in the northwest and L. lepida nevadensis in the southeast. Both subspecies show substantial morphological differences that may be involved in their local adaptation to the climatic extremes. To investigate how the use of a particular outlier detection method can influence the results, a frequentist method, DFDIST, and a Bayesian method, BayeScan, were used to search for outliers influenced by selection. Additionally, the spatial analysis method was used to test for associations of AFLP marker band frequencies with 54 climatic variables by logistic regression. Results obtained with each method highlight differences in their sensitivity. DFDIST and BayeScan detected a similar proportion of outliers (3-4%), but only a few loci were simultaneously detected by both methods. Several loci detected as outliers were also associated with temperature, insolation or precipitation according to spatial analysis method. These results are in accordance with reported data in the literature about morphological and life-history variation of L. lepida subspecies along the environmental gradient., (© 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.)

The idea that molecular data should contain information on the recent evolutionary history of populations is rather old. However, much of the work carried out today owes to the work of the statisticians and theoreticians who demonstrated that it was possible to detect departures from equilibrium conditions (e.g., panmictic population/mutation-drift equilibrium) and interpret them in terms of deviations from neutrality or stationarity. During the last 20 years the detection of population size changes has usually been carried out under the assumption that samples were obtained from populations that can be approximated by a Wright-Fisher model (i.e., assuming panmixia, demographic stationarity, etc.). However, natural populations are usually part of spatial networks and are interconnected through gene flow. Here we simulated genetic data at mutation and migration-drift equilibrium under an n-island and a stepping-stone model. The simulated populations were thus stationary and not subject to any population size change. We varied the level of gene flow between populations and the scaled mutation rate. We also used several sampling schemes. We then analyzed the simulated samples using the Bayesian method implemented in MSVAR, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation program, to detect and quantify putative population size changes using microsatellite data. Our results show that all three factors (genetic differentiation/gene flow, genetic diversity, and the sampling scheme) play a role in generating false bottleneck signals. We also suggest an ad hoc method to counter this effect. The confounding effect of population structure and of the sampling scheme has practical implications for many conservation studies. Indeed, if population structure is creating "spurious" bottleneck signals, the interpretation of bottleneck signals from genetic data might be less straightforward than it would seem, and several studies may have overestimated or incorrectly detected bottlenecks in endangered species.

We developed a spatially explicit model of a bioinvasion and used an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) framework to make various inferences from a combination of genetic (microsatellite genotypes), historical (first observation dates) and geographical (spatial coordinates of introduction and sampled sites) information. Our method aims to discriminate between alternative introduction scenarios and to estimate posterior densities of demographically relevant parameters of the invasive process. The performance of our landscape-ABC method is assessed using simulated data sets differing in their information content (genetic and/or historical data). We apply our methodology to the recent introduction and spatial expansion of the cane toad, Bufo marinus, in northern Australia. We find that, at least in the context of cane toad invasion, historical data are more informative than genetic data for discriminating between introduction scenarios. However, the combination of historical and genetic data provides the most accurate estimates of demographic parameters. For the cane toad, we find some evidence for a strong bottleneck prior to introduction, a small initial number of founder individuals (about 15), a large population growth rate (about 400% per generation), a standard deviation of dispersal distance of 19 km per generation and a high invasion speed at equilibrium (50 km per year). Our approach strengthens the application of the ABC method to the field of bioinvasion by allowing statistical inferences to be made on the introduction and the spatial expansion dynamics of invasive species using a combination of various relevant sources of information., (© 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.)

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a recently developed technique for solving problems in Bayesian inference. Although typically less accurate than, for example, the frequently used Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, they have greater flexibility because they do not require the specification of a likelihood function. For this reason considerable amounts of data can be analysed and more complex models can be used providing, thereby, a potential better fit of the model to the data. Since its first applications in the late 1990s its usage has been steadily increasing. The framework was originally developed to solve problems in population genetics. However, as its efficiency was recognized its popularity increased and, consequently, it started to be used in fields as diverse as phylogenetics, ecology, conservation, molecular evolution and epidemiology. While the ABC algorithm is still being greatly studied and alterations to it are being proposed, the statistical approach has already reached a level of maturity well demonstrated by the number of related computer packages that are being developed. As improved ABC algorithms are proposed, the expansion of the use of this method can only increase. In this paper we are going to depict the context that led to the development of ABC focusing on the field of infectious disease epidemiology. We are then going to describe its current usage in such field and present its most recent developments., (Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Nested clade phylogeographic analysis (NCPA) is a widely used method that aims to identify past demographic events that have shaped the history of a population. In an earlier study, NCPA has been fully automated, allowing it to be tested with simulated data sets generated under a null model in which samples simulated from a panmictic population are geographically distributed. It was noted that NCPA was prone to inferring false positives, corroborating earlier findings. The present study aims to evaluate both single-locus and multilocus NCPA under the scenario of restricted gene flow among spatially distributed populations. We have developed a new program, ANeCA-ML, which implements multilocus NCPA. Data were simulated under 3 models of gene flow: a stepping stone model, an island model, and a stepping stone model with some long-distance dispersal. Results indicate that single-locus NCPA tends to give a high frequency of false positives, but, unlike the random-mating scenario presented previously, inferences are not limited to restricted gene flow with isolation by distance or contiguous range expansion. The proportion of single-locus data sets that contained false inferences was 76% for the panmictic case, 87% for the stepping stone model, 79% for the stepping stone model with long-distance dispersal, and more than 99% for the island model. The frequency of inferences is inversely related to the amount of gene flow between demes. We performed multilocus NCPA by grouping the simulated loci into data sets of 5 loci. The false-positive rate was reduced in multilocus NCPA for some inferences but remained high for others. The proportion of multilocus data sets that contained false inferences was 17% for the panmictic case, 30% for the stepping stone model, 4% for the stepping stone model with long-distance dispersal, and 54% for the island model. Multilocus NCPA reduces the false-positive rate by restricting the sensitivity of the method but does not appear to increase the accuracy of the approach. Three classical tests-the analysis of molecular variance method, Fu's Fs, and the Mantel test-show that there is information in the data that gives rise to explicable results using these standard approaches. In conclusion, for the scenarios that we have examined, our simulation study suggests that the NCPA method is unreliable and its inferences may be misleading. We suggest that the NCPA method should not be used without objective simulation-based testing by independent researchers.

We address the problem of finding evidence of natural selection from genetic data, accounting for the confounding effects of demographic history. In the absence of natural selection, gene genealogies should all be sampled from the same underlying distribution, often approximated by a coalescent model. Selection at a particular locus will lead to a modified genealogy, and this motivates a number of recent approaches for detecting the effects of natural selection in the genome as "outliers" under some models. The demographic history of a population affects the sampling distribution of genealogies, and therefore the observed genotypes and the classification of outliers. Since we cannot see genealogies directly, we have to infer them from the observed data under some model of mutation and demography. Thus the accuracy of an outlier-based approach depends to a greater or a lesser extent on the uncertainty about the demographic and mutational model. A natural modeling framework for this type of problem is provided by Bayesian hierarchical models, in which parameters, such as mutation rates and selection coefficients, are allowed to vary across loci. It has proved quite difficult computationally to implement fully probabilistic genealogical models with complex demographies, and this has motivated the development of approximations such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). In ABC the data are compressed into summary statistics, and computation of the likelihood function is replaced by simulation of data under the model. In a hierarchical setting one may be interested both in hyperparameters and parameters, and there may be very many of the latter--for example, in a genetic model, these may be parameters describing each of many loci or populations. This poses a problem for ABC in that one then requires summary statistics for each locus, which, if used naively, leads to a consequent difficulty in conditional density estimation. We develop a general method for applying ABC to Bayesian hierarchical models, and we apply it to detect microsatellite loci influenced by local selection. We demonstrate using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis that this approach has comparable performance to a full-likelihood method and outperforms it when mutation rates are variable across loci.

The distribution of mockingbird species among the Galápagos Islands prompted Charles Darwin to question, for the first time in writing, the 'stability of species'. Some 50 years after Darwin's visit, however, the endemic Floreana mockingbird (Mimus trifasciatus) had become extinct on Floreana Island and, today, only two small populations survive on two satellite islets. As Darwin noted, rarity often precedes extinction. To avert extinction, plans are being developed to reintroduce M. trifasciatus to Floreana. Here, we integrate evolutionary thinking and conservation practice using coalescent analyses and genetic data from contemporary and museum samples, including two collected by Darwin and Robert Fitzroy on Floreana in 1835. Our microsatellite results show substantial differentiation between the two extant populations, but our coalescence-based modelling does not indicate long, independent evolutionary histories. One of the populations is highly inbred, but both harbour unique alleles present on Floreana in 1835, suggesting that birds from both islets should be used to establish a single, mixed population on Floreana. Thus, Darwin's mockingbird specimens not only revealed to him a level of variation that suggested speciation following geographical isolation but also, more than 170 years later, return important information to their place of origin for the conservation of their conspecifics.

Recent papers have promoted the view that model-based methods in general, and those based on Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) in particular, are flawed in a number of ways, and are therefore inappropriate for the analysis of phylogeographic data. These papers further argue that Nested Clade Phylogeographic Analysis (NCPA) offers the best approach in statistical phylogeography. In order to remove the confusion and misconceptions introduced by these papers, we justify and explain the reasoning behind model-based inference. We argue that ABC is a statistically valid approach, alongside other computational statistical techniques that have been successfully used to infer parameters and compare models in population genetics. We also examine the NCPA method and highlight numerous deficiencies, either when used with single or multiple loci. We further show that the ages of clades are carelessly used to infer ages of demographic events, that these ages are estimated under a simple model of panmixia and population stationarity but are then used under different and unspecified models to test hypotheses, a usage the invalidates these testing procedures. We conclude by encouraging researchers to study and use model-based inference in population genetics.

Determining the routes of introduction provides not only information about the history of an invasion process, but also information about the origin and construction of the genetic composition of the invading population. It remains difficult, however, to infer introduction routes from molecular data because of a lack of appropriate methods. We evaluate here the use of an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method for estimating the probabilities of introduction routes of invasive populations based on microsatellite data. We considered the crucial case of a single source population from which two invasive populations originated either serially from a single introduction event or from two independent introduction events. Using simulated datasets, we found that the method gave correct inferences and was robust to many erroneous beliefs. The method was also more efficient than traditional methods based on raw values of statistics such as assignment likelihood or pairwise F(ST). We illustrate some of the features of our ABC method, using real microsatellite datasets obtained for invasive populations of the western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera. Most computations were performed with the DIYABC program (http://www1.montpellier.inra.fr/CBGP/diyabc/).

Background: Molecular tools may help to uncover closely related and still diverging species from a wide variety of taxa and provide insight into the mechanisms, pace and geography of marine speciation. There is a certain controversy on the phylogeography and speciation modes of species-groups with an Eastern Atlantic-Western Indian Ocean distribution, with previous studies suggesting that older events (Miocene) and/or more recent (Pleistocene) oceanographic processes could have influenced the phylogeny of marine taxa. The spiny lobster genus Palinurus allows for testing among speciation hypotheses, since it has a particular distribution with two groups of three species each in the Northeastern Atlantic (P. elephas, P. mauritanicus and P. charlestoni) and Southeastern Atlantic and Southwestern Indian Oceans (P. gilchristi, P. delagoae and P. barbarae). In the present study, we obtain a more complete understanding of the phylogenetic relationships among these species through a combined dataset with both nuclear and mitochondrial markers, by testing alternative hypotheses on both the mutation rate and tree topology under the recently developed approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods., Results: Our analyses support a North-to-South speciation pattern in Palinurus with all the South-African species forming a monophyletic clade nested within the Northern Hemisphere species. Coalescent-based ABC methods allowed us to reject the previously proposed hypothesis of a Middle Miocene speciation event related with the closure of the Tethyan Seaway. Instead, divergence times obtained for Palinurus species using the combined mtDNA-microsatellite dataset and standard mutation rates for mtDNA agree with known glaciation-related processes occurring during the last 2 my., Conclusion: The Palinurus speciation pattern is a typical example of a series of rapid speciation events occurring within a group, with very short branches separating different species. Our results support the hypothesis that recent climate change-related oceanographic processes have influenced the phylogeny of marine taxa, with most Palinurus species originating during the last two million years. The present study highlights the value of new coalescent-based statistical methods such as ABC for testing different speciation hypotheses using molecular data.

Unlabelled: PopABC is a computer package for inferring the pattern of demographic divergence of closely related populations and species. The software performs coalescent simulation in the framework of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). PopABC can also be used to perform Bayesian model choice to discriminate between different demographic scenarios. The program can be used either for research or for education and teaching purposes., Availability and Implementation: Source code and binaries are freely available at http://www.reading.ac.uk/ approximately sar05sal/software.htm. The program was implemented in C and can run on UNIX, MacOSX and Windows operating systems.

Lactase persistence (LP) is common among people of European ancestry, but with the exception of some African, Middle Eastern and southern Asian groups, is rare or absent elsewhere in the world. Lactase gene haplotype conservation around a polymorphism strongly associated with LP in Europeans (-13,910 C/T) indicates that the derived allele is recent in origin and has been subject to strong positive selection. Furthermore, ancient DNA work has shown that the--13,910*T (derived) allele was very rare or absent in early Neolithic central Europeans. It is unlikely that LP would provide a selective advantage without a supply of fresh milk, and this has lead to a gene-culture coevolutionary model where lactase persistence is only favoured in cultures practicing dairying, and dairying is more favoured in lactase persistent populations. We have developed a flexible demic computer simulation model to explore the spread of lactase persistence, dairying, other subsistence practices and unlinked genetic markers in Europe and western Asia's geographic space. Using data on--13,910*T allele frequency and farming arrival dates across Europe, and approximate Bayesian computation to estimate parameters of interest, we infer that the--13,910*T allele first underwent selection among dairying farmers around 7,500 years ago in a region between the central Balkans and central Europe, possibly in association with the dissemination of the Neolithic Linearbandkeramik culture over Central Europe. Furthermore, our results suggest that natural selection favouring a lactase persistence allele was not higher in northern latitudes through an increased requirement for dietary vitamin D. Our results provide a coherent and spatially explicit picture of the coevolution of lactase persistence and dairying in Europe.

Summary: Inferring population admixture from genetic data and quantifying it is a difficult but crucial task in evolutionary and conservation biology. Unfortunately state-of-the-art probabilistic approaches are computationally demanding. Effectively exploiting the computational power of modern multiprocessor systems can thus have a positive impact to Monte Carlo-based simulation of admixture modeling. A novel parallel approach is briefly described and promising results on its message passing interface (MPI)-based C++ implementation are reported., Availability: The software package parLEA is freely available at (http://dm.unife.it/parlea).

In recent years approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods have become popular in population genetics as an alternative to full-likelihood methods to make inferences under complex demographic models. Most ABC methods rely on the choice of a set of summary statistics to extract information from the data. In this article we tested the use of the full allelic distribution directly in an ABC framework. Although the ABC techniques are becoming more widely used, there is still uncertainty over how they perform in comparison with full-likelihood methods. We thus conducted a simulation study and provide a detailed examination of ABC in comparison with full likelihood in the case of a model of admixture. This model assumes that two parental populations mixed at a certain time in the past, creating a hybrid population, and that the three populations then evolve under pure drift. Several aspects of ABC methodology were investigated, such as the effect of the distance metric chosen to measure the similarity between simulated and observed data sets. Results show that in general ABC provides good approximations to the posterior distributions obtained with the full-likelihood method. This suggests that it is possible to apply ABC using allele frequencies to make inferences in cases where it is difficult to select a set of suitable summary statistics and when the complexity of the model or the size of the data set makes it computationally prohibitive to use full-likelihood methods.

In conventional phylogeographic studies, historical demographic processes are elucidated from the geographical distribution of individuals represented on an inferred gene tree. However, the interpretation of gene trees in this context can be difficult as the same demographic/geographical process can randomly lead to multiple different genealogies. Likewise, the same gene trees can arise under different demographic models. This problem has led to the emergence of many statistical methods for making phylogeographic inferences. A popular phylogeographic approach based on nested clade analysis is challenged by the fact that a certain amount of the interpretation of the data is left to the subjective choices of the user, and it has been argued that the method performs poorly in simulation studies. More rigorous statistical methods based on coalescence theory have been developed. However, these methods may also be challenged by computational problems or poor model choice. In this review, we will describe the development of statistical methods in phylogeographic analysis, and discuss some of the challenges facing these methods.

Unlabelled: Genetic data obtained on population samples convey information about their evolutionary history. Inference methods can extract part of this information but they require sophisticated statistical techniques that have been made available to the biologist community (through computer programs) only for simple and standard situations typically involving a small number of samples. We propose here a computer program (DIY ABC) for inference based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), in which scenarios can be customized by the user to fit many complex situations involving any number of populations and samples. Such scenarios involve any combination of population divergences, admixtures and population size changes. DIY ABC can be used to compare competing scenarios, estimate parameters for one or more scenarios and compute bias and precision measures for a given scenario and known values of parameters (the current version applies to unlinked microsatellite data). This article describes key methods used in the program and provides its main features. The analysis of one simulated and one real dataset, both with complex evolutionary scenarios, illustrates the main possibilities of DIY ABC., Availability: The software DIY ABC is freely available at http://www.montpellier.inra.fr/CBGP/diyabc.

Over the last decade, there has been increasing circumstantial evidence for the action of natural selection in the genome, arising largely from molecular genetic surveys of large numbers of markers. In nonmodel organisms without densely mapped markers, a frequently used method is to identify loci that have unusually high or low levels of genetic differentiation, or low genetic diversity relative to other populations. The paper by Mäkinen et al. (2008a) in this issue of Molecular Ecology reports the results of a survey of microsatellite allele frequencies at more than 100 loci in seven populations of the three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus). They show that a microsatellite locus and two indel markers located within the intron of the Eda gene, known to control the number of lateral plates in the stickleback (Fig. 1), tend to be much more highly genetically differentiated than other loci, a finding that is consistent with the action of local selection. They identify a further two independent candidates for local selection, and, most intriguingly, they further suggest that up to 15% of their loci may provide evidence of balancing selection.

There is great interest in using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers because they are inexpensive and easy to produce. It is, therefore, possible to generate a large number of markers that have a wide coverage of species genomes. Several statistical methods have been proposed to study the genetic structure using AFLPs but they assume Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and do not estimate the inbreeding coefficient, F(IS). A Bayesian method has been proposed by Holsinger and colleagues that relaxes these simplifying assumptions but we have identified two sources of bias that can influence estimates based on these markers: (i) the use of a uniform prior on ancestral allele frequencies and (ii) the ascertainment bias of AFLP markers. We present a new Bayesian method that avoids these biases by using an implementation based on the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithm. This new method estimates population-specific F(IS) and F(ST) values and offers users the possibility of taking into account the criteria for selecting the markers that are used in the analyses. The software is available at our web site (http://www-leca.ujf-grenoble.fr/logiciels.htm). Finally, we provide advice on how to avoid the effects of ascertainment bias.

The estimation of effective population size from one sample of genotypes has been problematic because most estimators have been proven imprecise or biased. We developed a web-based program, onesamp that uses approximate Bayesian computation to estimate effective population size from a sample of microsatellite genotypes. onesamp requires an input file of sampled individuals' microsatellite genotypes along with information about several sampling and biological parameters. onesamp provides an estimate of effective population size, along with 95% credible limits. We illustrate the use of onesamp with an example data set from a re-introduced population of ibex Capra ibex., (© 2007 The Authors.)

Recombination is thought to occur only rarely in animal mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). However, detection of mtDNA recombination requires that cells become heteroplasmic through mutation, intramolecular recombination or 'leakage' of paternal mtDNA. Interspecific hybridization increases the probability of detecting mtDNA recombinants due to higher levels of sequence divergence and potentially higher levels of paternal leakage. During a study of historical variation in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) mtDNA, an individual with a recombinant haplotype containing sequence from both Atlantic salmon and brown trout (Salmo trutta) was detected. The individual was not an F1 hybrid but it did have an unusual nuclear genotype which suggested that it was a later-generation backcross. No other similar recombinant haplotype was found from the same population or three neighbouring Atlantic salmon populations in 717 individuals collected during 1948-2002. Interspecific recombination may increase mtDNA variability within species and can have implications for phylogenetic studies.

Nested clade phylogeographic analysis (NCPA) is a popular method for reconstructing the demographic history of spatially distributed populations from genetic data. Although some parts of the analysis are automated, there is no unique and widely followed algorithm for doing this in its entirety, beginning with the data, and ending with the inferences drawn from the data. This article describes a method that automates NCPA, thereby providing a framework for replicating analyses in an objective way. To do so, a number of decisions need to be made so that the automated implementation is representative of previous analyses. We review how the NCPA procedure has evolved since its inception and conclude that there is scope for some variability in the manual application of NCPA. We apply the automated software to three published datasets previously analyzed manually and replicate many details of the manual analyses, suggesting that the current algorithm is representative of how a typical user will perform NCPA. We simulate a large number of replicate datasets for geographically distributed, but entirely random-mating, populations. These are then analyzed using the automated NCPA algorithm. Results indicate that NCPA tends to give a high frequency of false positives. In our simulations we observe that 14% of the clades give a conclusive inference that a demographic event has occurred, and that 75% of the datasets have at least one clade that gives such an inference. This is mainly due to the generation of multiple statistics per clade, of which only one is required to be significant to apply the inference key. We survey the inferences that have been made in recent publications and show that the most commonly inferred processes (restricted gene flow with isolation by distance and contiguous range expansion) are those that are commonly inferred in our simulations. However, published datasets typically yield a richer set of inferences with NCPA than obtained in our random-mating simulations, and further testing of NCPA with models of structured populations is necessary to examine its accuracy.

Stephens and Donnelly have introduced a simple yet powerful importance sampling scheme for computing the likelihood in population genetic models. Fundamental to the method is an approximation to the conditional probability of the allelic type of an additional gene, given those currently in the sample. As noted by Li and Stephens, the product of these conditional probabilities for a sequence of draws that gives the frequency of allelic types in a sample is an approximation to the likelihood, and can be used directly in inference. The aim of this note is to demonstrate the high level of accuracy of "product of approximate conditionals" (PAC) likelihood when used with microsatellite data. Results obtained on simulated microsatellite data show that this strategy leads to a negligible bias over a wide range of the scaled mutation parameter theta. Furthermore, the sampling variance of likelihood estimates as well as the computation time are lower than that obtained with importance sampling on the whole range of theta. It follows that this approach represents an efficient substitute to IS algorithms in computer intensive (e.g. MCMC) inference methods in population genetics.