Search

The extent to which dengue virus has been circulating in Africa is largely unknown. Testing available blood samples from previous cross-sectional serological surveys offers a convenient strategy to investigate past dengue infections, as such serosurveys provide the ideal data to reconstruct the age-dependent immunity profile of the population and to estimate the average per-capita annual risk of infection; the force of infection (FOI), which is a fundamental measure of transmission intensity.In this study, we present a novel methodological approach to inform the size and age distribution of blood samples to test when samples are acquired from previous surveys. The method was used to inform a dengue seroprevalence survey which is currently being conducted in Ghana by the Drug for Neglected disease initiative, utilizing samples previously collected for a SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey.The method described in this paper can be employed to determine sample sizes and testing strategies for different diseases and transmission settings.Author summaryThe historical circulation of dengue virus in Africa is still poorly understood, and age-stratified seroprevalence surveys can provide the data to quantify population exposure to dengue and its transmission intensity.In this work, we developed a simulation-based method that can be used to identify the sample sizes and age-distribution of the samples needed to obtain informative estimates of dengue force of infection from existing blood samples. We apply this method to data obtained from a SARS-CoV-2 serological survey, previously conducted in three cities in Ghana.The proposed method can be used to design serological surveys for other pathogens when using existing blood samples with accompanying age and location are available.

Dengue poses a significant burden worldwide, and a more comprehensive understanding of the heterogeneity in the intensity of dengue transmission within endemic countries is necessary to evaluate the potential impact of public health interventions.This scoping literature review aimed to update a previous study of dengue transmission intensity by collating global age-stratified dengue seroprevalence data published in the Medline and Embase databases from 2014 to 2022. These data were then utilized to calibrate catalytic models and estimate the force of infection (FOI), which is the yearly per-capita risk of infection for a typical susceptible individual.We found a total of 44 new publications containing 47 relevant datasets across 20 endemic countries. Together with the previously available average FOI estimates, there are now 280 dengue average FOI estimates obtained from seroprevalence data and 149 estimates obtained from case-notification data available across the world.The results showed large heterogeneities in average dengue FOI both across and within countries. These new estimates can be used to inform ongoing modelling efforts to improve our understanding of the drivers of heterogeneity in dengue transmission globally, which in turn can help inform the optimal implementation of public health interventions.Author summaryIn this work, we conducted a scoping literature review to collate global dengue age-specific seroprevalence data from dengue endemic areas published between 2014 and 2022. These data were used to calibrate mathematical models and estimate the average yearly force of infection (FOI), which is a fundamental measure of transmission intensity. FOI estimates can be used to quantify the risk of infection, disease burden and the potential impact of new interventions, such as vaccination.In addition, the FOI estimates generated in this study contribute to ongoing efforts to better characterise and map dengue transmission intensity worldwide.

Background Onchocerciasis elimination through mass drug administration (MDA) is hampered by coendemicity of Loa loa, as people with high L. loa microfilariae (mf) density can develop serious adverse events (SAEs) after ivermectin treatment. We assessed the geographical overlap of onchocerciasis and loiasis prevalence and estimated the number of coinfected individuals at risk of post-ivermectin SAEs in West and Central Africa from 1995 to 2025. Methods Focusing on regions with suspected loiasis transmission in 14 countries, we overlaid precontrol maps of loiasis and onchocerciasis prevalence to calculate precontrol prevalence of coinfection by 5 km2 × 5 km2 pixel, distinguishing different categories of L. loa mf intensity. Using statistical and mathematical models, we predicted prevalence of both infections and coinfection for 2015 and 2025, accounting for the impact of MDA with ivermectin. Results The number of people infected with onchocerciasis was predicted to decline from almost 19 million in 1995 to 4 million in 2025. Of these, 137 000 people were estimated to also have L. loa hypermicrofilaremia (≥20 000 L. loa mf/mL) in 1995, declining to 31 000 in 2025. In 2025, 92.8% of coinfected cases with loiasis hypermicrofilaremia are predicted to live in hypoendemic areas currently not targeted for MDA. Conclusions Loiasis coinfection is a major concern for onchocerciasis elimination in Africa. We predict that under current strategies, at least 31 000 coinfected people still require treatment for onchocerciasis in 2025 while being at risk of SAEs, justifying continued efforts in research and development for safer drugs and control strategies., Onchocerciasis elimination using mass drug administration with ivermectin is jeopardized in areas with Loa loa coendemicity. We estimate the number of people at risk of serious adverse events due to ivermectin in onchocerciasis– loiasis coendemic areas in Africa between 1995 and 2025.

Background Onchocerciasis (“river blindness”) can cause severe morbidity, including vision loss and various skin manifestations, and is targeted for elimination using ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA). We calculated the number of people with Onchocerca volvulus infection and onchocercal skin and eye disease as well as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost from 1990 through to 2030 in areas formerly covered by the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control. Methods Per MDA implementation unit, we collated data on the pre-control distribution of microfilariae (mf) prevalence and the history of control. Next, we predicted trends in infection and morbidity over time using the ONCHOSIM simulation model. DALY estimates were calculated using disability weights from the Global Burden of Disease Study. Results In 1990, prior to MDA implementation, the total population at risk was 79.8 million with 26.0 million (32.5%) mf-positive individuals, of whom 17.5 million (21.9%) had some form of onchocercal skin or eye disease (2.5 million DALYs lost). By 2030, the total population was predicted to increase to 236.1 million, while the number of mf-positive cases (about 6.8 million, 2.9%), people with skin or eye morbidity (4.2 million, 1.8%), and DALYs lost (0.7 million) were predicted to decline. Conclusions MDA has had a remarkable impact on the onchocerciasis burden in countries previously under the APOC mandate. In the few countries where we predict continued transmission between now and 2030, intensified MDA could be combined with local vector control efforts, or the introduction of new drugs for mopping up residual cases of infection and morbidity.

Drug-based interventions are at the heart of global efforts to reach elimination as a public health problem (trachoma, soil-transmitted helminthiases, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis) or elimination of transmission (onchocerciasis) for 5 of the most prevalent neglected tropical diseases tackled via the World Health Organization preventive chemotherapy strategy. While for some of these diseases there is optimism that currently available drugs will be sufficient to achieve the proposed elimination goals, for others—particularly onchocerciasis—there is a growing consensus that novel therapeutic options will be needed. Since in this area no high return of investment is possible, minimizing wasted money and resources is essential. Here, we use illustrative results to show how mathematical modeling can guide the drug development pathway, yielding resource-saving and efficiency payoffs, from the refinement of target product profiles and intended context of use to the design of clinical trials., Modeling is used in the commercial pharmaceutical sector to facilitate drug development. The efficiency payoffs of modeling in the resource-scarce neglected tropical disease (NTD) domain can be particularly valuable. Modeling should be routinely integrated into the NTD drug development pathway.

Background Oral ivermectin is a safe broad spectrum anthelminthic used for treating several neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Currently, ivermectin use is contraindicated in children weighing less than 15 kg, restricting access to this drug for the treatment of NTDs. Here we provide an updated systematic review of the literature and we conducted an individual-level patient data (IPD) meta-analysis describing the safety of ivermectin in children weighing less than 15 kg. Methodology/Principal findings A systematic review was conducted using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) for IPD guidelines by searching MEDLINE via PubMed, Web of Science, Ovid Embase, LILACS, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, TOXLINE for all clinical trials, case series, case reports, and database entries for reports on the use of ivermectin in children weighing less than 15 kg that were published between 1 January 1980 to 25 October 2019. The protocol was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO): CRD42017056515. A total of 3,730 publications were identified, 97 were selected for potential inclusion, but only 17 sources describing 15 studies met the minimum criteria which consisted of known weights of children less than 15 kg linked to possible adverse events, and provided comprehensive IPD. A total of 1,088 children weighing less than 15 kg were administered oral ivermectin for one of the following indications: scabies, mass drug administration for scabies control, crusted scabies, cutaneous larva migrans, myiasis, pthiriasis, strongyloidiasis, trichuriasis, and parasitic disease of unknown origin. Overall a total of 1.4% (15/1,088) of children experienced 18 adverse events all of which were mild and self-limiting. No serious adverse events were reported. Conclusions/Significance Existing limited data suggest that oral ivermectin in children weighing less than 15 kilograms is safe. Data from well-designed clinical trials are needed to provide further assurance., Author summary Oral ivermectin is a safe and efficacious drug for the treatment of neglected tropical diseases. To date, ivermectin is not indicated in children weighing less than 15 kg because there have been insufficient safety data to support a change of recommendation. A PRISMA-level systematic review was conducted, and 97 potential sources were identified. All lead investigators were contacted to share individual patient data if they could provide the minimum criteria. These were the known weights of the children less than 15 kg in whom there were possible adverse events. A total of 17 investigators replied, sharing individual-level patient data (IPD) from 15 studies, which represent a database of 1,088 children weighing less than 15 kg treated with oral ivermectin. Overall 18 adverse events were reported in 1.4% (15/1,088) of children, all of which were mild and self-limiting. No serious adverse events were recorded. These data suggest that ivermectin is safe for use in children weighing less than 15 kilograms. Further data from well-designed clinical trials are needed to assess the safety of oral ivermectin at escalating doses in children weighing less than 15 kg.

Aims: Emodepside is an anthelmintic, originally developed for veterinary use. We investigated the safety, pharmacokinetics, relative bioavailability and dose linearity of four oral formulations of emodepside in healthy male subjects. Methods: Three randomised, parallel‐group, controlled, Phase I studies were conducted using various oral formulations, involving 79 subjects in ten cohorts in the single-ascending-dose study, 24 subjects in three ascending-dose cohorts in the multiple-ascending-dose study and 77 subjects in seven different cohorts in the relative bioavailability study. Pharmacokinetics and safety assessments were performed up to 21, 30 and 7 days, respectively. Results: As a liquid service formulation, emodepside was rapidly absorbed under fasting conditions, with dose-proportional increases in plasma concentrations at doses from 1 mg to 40 mg. The half-life during the first 24 hours after dosing was around 11 hours, followed by a terminal elimination half-life > 500 hours. Emodepside was less bioavailable in the fed state. The rate of absorption was slower and Cmax was lower with the amorphous solid dispersion tablets compared to the liquid service formulation. Emodepside was well tolerated overall with no major safety concerns. Conclusion: These Phase I studies with various dosage forms revealed a pharmacokinetic profile suggesting good tissue distribution of emodepside and a long terminal half‐life. A 15 mg dose with the gastrosoluble tablet is predicted to provide exposure that will achieve the target concentration for clinical efficacy. These data enabled us to select a field-adapted tablet formulation that will open the way for further clinical development of emodepside in individuals with onchocerchiasis.

Lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis are neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) targeted for elimination by mass (antifilarial) drug administration. These drugs are predominantly active against the microfilarial progeny of adult worms. New drugs or combinations are needed to improve patient therapy and to enhance the effectiveness of interventions in persistent hotspots of transmission. Several therapies and regimens are currently in (pre-)clinical testing. Clinical trial simulators (CTSs) project patient outcomes to inform the design of clinical trials but have not been widely applied to NTDs, where their resource-saving payoffs could be highly beneficial. We demonstrate the utility of CTSs using our individual-based onchocerciasis transmission model (EPIONCHO-IBM) that projects trial outcomes of a hypothetical macrofilaricidal drug. We identify key design decisions that influence the power of clinical trials, including participant eligibility criteria and post-treatment follow-up times for measuring infection indicators. We discuss how CTSs help to inform target product profiles., Drugs for filariases are under development and clinical trial simulators could help to inform the design of clinical trials. Here, Walker et al. use an individual-based onchocerciasis transmission model to project trial outcomes of a hypothetical macrofilaricidal drug, resolving key design choices.

Background Onchocerciasis (river-blindness) in Africa is targeted for elimination through mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin. Onchocerciasis may cause various types of skin and eye disease. Predicting the impact of MDA on onchocercal morbidity is useful for future policy development. Here, we introduce a new disease module within the established ONCHOSIM model to predict trends over time in prevalence of onchocercal morbidity. Methods We developed novel generic model concepts for development of symptoms due to cumulative exposure to dead microfilariae, accommodating both reversible (acute) and irreversible (chronic) symptoms. The model was calibrated to reproduce pre-control age patterns and associations between prevalences of infection, eye disease, and various types of skin disease as observed in a large set of population-based studies. We then used the new disease module to predict the impact of MDA on morbidity prevalence over a 30-year time frame for various scenarios. Results ONCHOSIM reproduced observed age-patterns in disease and community-level associations between infection and disease reasonably well. For highly endemic settings with 30 years of annual MDA at 60% coverage, the model predicted a 70% to 89% reduction in prevalence of chronic morbidity. This relative decline was similar with higher MDA coverage and only somewhat higher for settings with lower pre-control endemicity. The decline in prevalence was lowest for mild depigmentation and visual impairment. The prevalence of acute clinical manifestations (severe itch, reactive skin disease) declined by 95% to 100% after 30 years of annual MDA, regardless of pre-control endemicity. Conclusion We present generic model concepts for predicting trends in acute and chronic symptoms due to history of exposure to parasitic worm infections, and apply this to onchocerciasis. Our predictions suggest that onchocercal morbidity, in particular chronic manifestations, will remain a public health concern in many epidemiological settings in Africa, even after 30 years of MDA., Author summary Onchocerciasis, also known as river blindness, is the second most common infectious cause of blindness worldwide, but also leads to serious skin conditions. Large-scale interventions are ongoing to control and eliminate the disease in Africa, yet the impact of these interventions on onchocercal morbidity is largely unknown. Here, we predict the trends in a wide spectrum of skin and eye disease due to onchocerciasis after up to 30 years of annual mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin. To this end, we have developed a novel disease framework within the established ONCHOSIM model. We show that annual MDA will rapidly reduce the prevalence of acute clinical conditions, whereas the prevalence of chronic clinical manifestations will decline much more slowly. The new disease framework was validated with several data sources and reproduced morbidity trends adequately, making the framework applicable for more refined disease prevalence predictions by taking account of treatment history in Africa. Such predictions are essential for accurate estimates of disability-adjusted life years lost due to onchocerciasis by 2025.

We show the potential of Diffuse Reflectance Spectroscopy to identify Onchocerca Volvulus nodules, cysts, ganglions and lipomas on humans. We develop a new probe to take into account the geometry of the O. Volvulus model and implement a new measurement protocol and analysis method to deal with the melanin skin contribution. The nodule has a specific intensity and spectral signature compared to its background. It is therefore a relative measure that estimates a signal variation due to the worm and its environment. This may be used to monitor the worm state along time.

Background Recently, several epidemiological studies performed in Onchocerca volvulus-endemic regions have suggested that onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy (OAE) may constitute an important but neglected public health problem in many countries where onchocerciasis is still endemic. Main text On October 12–14th 2017, the first international workshop on onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy (OAE) was held in Antwerp, Belgium. The workshop was attended by 79 participants from 20 different countries. Recent research findings strongly suggest that O. volvulus is an important contributor to epilepsy, particularly in meso- and hyperendemic areas for onchocerciasis. Infection with O. volvulus is associated with a spectrum of epileptic seizures, mainly generalised tonic-clonic seizures but also atonic neck seizures (nodding), and stunted growth. OAE is characterised by an onset of seizures between the ages of 3–18 years. Multidisciplinary working groups discussed topics such as how to 1) strengthen the evidence for an association between onchocerciasis and epilepsy, 2) determine the burden of disease caused by OAE, 3) prevent OAE, 4) improve the treatment/care for persons with OAE and affected families, 5) identify the pathophysiological mechanism of OAE, and 6) deal with misconceptions, stigma, discrimination and gender violence associated with OAE. An OAE Alliance was created to increase awareness about OAE and its public health importance, stimulate research and disseminate research findings, and create partnerships between OAE researchers, communities, advocacy groups, ministries of health, non-governmental organisations, the pharmaceutical industry and funding organizations. Conclusions Although the exact pathophysiological mechanism underlying OAE remains unknown, there is increasing evidence that by controlling and eliminating onchocerciasis, OAE will also disappear. Therefore, OAE constitutes an additional argument for strengthening onchocerciasis elimination efforts. Given the high numbers of people with epilepsy in O. volvulus-endemic regions, more advocacy is urgently needed to provide anti-epileptic treatment to improve the quality of life of these individuals and their families. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s40249-018-0400-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

In the present work, we show the capacity of spatially resolved Diffuse Reflectance Spectroscopy (DRS) to identify live and dead worms in ex vivo Onchocerca ochengi nodules. It demonstrates the potential of DRS to diagnose the worm state and to monitor the effect of a drug on macrofilariae. These results have been obtained in constrained conditions, leading to the proposal of a rigorous acquisition and analysis protocol that may contribute to standardized measures in diffuse optics.

Expanding treatment options alongside ensuring high coverage of mass drug administration can accelerate progress in elimination of lymphatic filariasis, say Sabine Specht and colleagues

Summary Background In 1975–99, only 1·1% of new therapeutic products had been developed for neglected diseases. Since then, several public and private initiatives have attempted to mitigate this imbalance. We analysed the research and development pipeline of drugs and vaccines for neglected diseases from 2000 to 2011. Methods We searched databases of drug regulatory authorities, WHO, and clinical trial registries for entries made between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2011. We defined neglected diseases as malaria, tuberculosis, diarrhoeal diseases, neglected tropical diseases (NTDs; WHO definition), and other diseases of poverty according to common definitions. Findings Of the 850 new therapeutic products registered in 2000–11, 37 (4%) were indicated for neglected diseases, comprising 25 products with a new indication or formulation and eight vaccines or biological products. Only four new chemical entities were approved for neglected diseases (three for malaria, one for diarrhoeal disease), accounting for 1% of the 336 new chemical entities approved during the study period. Of 148 445 clinical trials registered in Dec 31, 2011, only 2016 (1%) were for neglected diseases. Interpretation Our findings show a persistent insufficiency in drug and vaccine development for neglected diseases. Nevertheless, these and other data show a slight improvement during the past 12 years in new therapeutics development and registration. However, for many neglected diseases, new therapeutic products urgently need to be developed and delivered to improve control and potentially achieve elimination. Funding None.