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BACKGROUND: The pollen beetle (Brassicogethes aeneus) causes significant yield loss in oilseed rape (Brassica napus). Predicting population changes remains a scientific challenge, especially since its phenology and abundance varies dramatically over space and time. We used generalized additive models to investigate the long‐term trends in pollen beetle annual, seasonal and monthly counts from Rothamsted 12.2 m suction‐traps. We hypothesised that the beetle's abundance is positively related to the area of oilseed rape at a national and regional level. We used random forest models to investigate the inter‐generational relationship within years. RESULTS: Although Brassicogethes aeneus annual counts and area of oilseed rape grown in the UK both increased by 162% and 113%, respectively, over the time period studied, they were not significantly related. The size of the immigrating pollen beetle population (up to 1 June) can be explained both by the size of the population in the previous summer and prevailing winter temperatures, indicating a positive feedback mechanism. CONCLUSION: Currently, pollen beetle numbers continue to increase in the UK, meaning that control issues may persist. However the relationship between counts in spring, during the susceptible phase of the crop, and counts in the previous summer indicates that it may be possible to forecast the counts of the spring migration of Brassicogethes aeneus a few months in advance using suction‐trap samples, which could aid decisions on control options. © 2023 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An introduction to high‐speed photography and its entomological impact is provided, emphasizing the importance of high frame rates and high resolution. The take‐off and free flight of Drepanosiphum platanoidis and Myzus persicae were studied in still air using high‐speed photography in HD. The wing tip and body posture were tracked to show how they are displaced during each wingbeat cycle. The important structural elements of the wing are described. The wingbeat is driven by a reinforced leading edge, the pterostigma and costa. The remainder of the coupled fore‐ and hindwing acts as a single aerofoil that deforms during flight, due to sparse venation and a lack of cross veins. During flight, aphids use a ‘near clap and fling’ mechanism with a body pitch close to 90°. Rapid acceleration about the thoracic lateral axis into wing reversal generates enough lift for take‐off, typically within the first or second wingbeat. Unique footage shows that aphids demonstrate a high degree of flight control and manoeuvrability in the lab, occasionally using forward and inverted flight, two flight modes that are otherwise poorly known. While research into the impact of turbulent convection is needed, we posit that the strength of atmospheric forces presents a formidable challenge to aphid migrants. Above the flight boundary layer, migrating aphids may not easily oppose upwardly moving air, although if used, ‘frozen flight’ may cause them to descend on average. We evaluate five devices for insect flight research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In common with many other insectivorous birds, the Common Swift Apus apus is undergoing population declines, with an estimated 57% reduction in abundance between 1995 and 2017 in the UK. The ultimate drivers of this decline are poorly understood but links have been drawn to reductions in the abundance and availability of insect prey, as well as loss of nesting sites. The aim of this study is to improve understanding of the demographic and environmental drivers of Swift decline in Great Britain, with a particular focus on weather and aphid biomass. We explore spatio‐temporal trends in the biomass of aphids, an important source of food for these aerial feeders, from a network of 17 suction‐traps, each 12.2 m in length. We then use data from national nest recording and ringing schemes to describe temporal trends in, and covariates of, Swift breeding success and annual survival. Demographic data are sparse prior to the mid‐1990s but show stable adult survival, a reduction in first‐year survival and an increase in nest failure rate since the mid‐1970s. Despite marked declines in aphid biomass across much of southern and eastern England during this period, we find no association between aphid biomass and Swift demography. Weather was a stronger correlate of variation in Swift demography, with increased precipitation associated with smaller brood size, higher nest failure rate and lower first‐year survival. Our data suggest that falling first‐year survival, partly linked to wetter summers, may be the most likely demographic driver of population decline. Given that the only convincing correlates of Swift demography were weather‐related, we suggest it would be precautionary for conservation efforts to continue to focus on ensuring that safe and productive nesting sites are in sufficient supply. Further research to identify habitats and land management practices which provide foraging resources, particularly during periods of inclement weather, is required, and future demographic modelling exercises would benefit from increased nest recording and ringing efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Sugar beet is threatened by virus yellows, a disease complex vectored by aphids that reduces sugar content. We present an analysis of Myzus persicae population dynamics with and without neonicotinoid seed treatment. We use 6 years' yellow water trap and field‐collected aphid data and two decades of 12.2 m suction‐trap aphid migration data. We investigate both spatial synchrony and forecasting error to understand the structure and spatial scale of field counts and why forecasting aphid migrants lacks accuracy. Our aim is to derive statistical parameters to inform regionwide pest management strategies. Results: Spatial synchrony, indicating the coincident change in counts across the region over time, is rarely present and is best described as stochastic. Uniquely, early season field populations in 2019 did show spatial synchrony to 90 km compared to the overall average weekly correlation length of 23 km. However, 70% of the time series were spatially heterogenous, indicating patchy between‐field dynamics. Field counts lacked the same seasonal trend and did not peak in the same week. Forecasts tended to under‐predict mid‐season log10 counts. A strongly negative correlation between forecasting error and the proportion of zeros was shown. Conclusion: Field populations are unpredictable and stochastic, regardless of neonicotinoid seed treatment. This outcome presents a problem for decision‐support that cannot usefully provide a single regionwide solution. Weighted permutation entropy inferred that M. persicae 12.2 m suction‐trap time series had moderate to low intrinsic predictability. Early warning using a migration model tended to predict counts at lower levels than observed. © 2022 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5-2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1-14.8 days earlier on average)., Numerous long-term ecological changes have been attributed to climate change (1). Shifts in the seasonal timing of recurring biological events such as reproduction and migration (that is, phenological changes) have [...]