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The need of real-time of monitoring and alerting systems for Space Weather hazards has grown significantly in the last two decades. One of the most important challenge for space mission operations and planning is the prediction of solar proton events (SPEs). In this context, artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques have opened a new frontier, providing a new paradigm for statistical forecasting algorithms. The great majority of these models aim to predict the occurrence of a SPE, i.e., they are based on the classification approach. In this work we present a simple and efficient machine learning regression algorithm which is able to forecast the energetic proton flux up to 1 hour ahead by exploiting features derived from the electron flux only. This approach could be helpful to improve monitoring systems of the radiation risk in both deep space and near-Earth environments. The model is very relevant for mission operations and planning, especially when flare characteristics and source location are not available in real time, as at Mars distance.

Context. The mechanisms regulating the transport and energization of charged particles in space and astrophysical plasmas are still debated. Plasma turbulence is known to be a powerful particle accelerator. Large-scale structures, including flux ropes and plasmoids, may contribute to confine particles and lead to fast particle energization. These structures may also modify the properties of the turbulent nonlinear transfer across scales. Aims. We investigate how large-scale flux ropes are perturbed and, simultaneously, influence the nonlinear transfer of turbulent energy towards smaller scales. We then address how these structures affect particle transport and energization. Methods. We adopt magnetohydrodynamic simulations for perturbing a large-scale flux rope in solar-wind conditions and possibly triggering turbulence. Then, we employ test-particle methods to investigate particle transport and energization in the perturbed flux rope. Results. The large-scale helical flux rope inhibits the turbulent cascade towards smaller scales, especially if the amplitude of the initial perturbations is not large (~5%). In this case, particle transport is inhibited inside the structure. Fast particle acceleration occurs in association with phases of trapped motion within the large-scale flux rope., Comment: 15 pages, 15 figures. Submitted to Astronomy & Astrophysics, comments are welcome!

Current understanding of the kinetic-scale turbulence in weakly-collisional plasmas still remains elusive. We employ a general framework in which the turbulent energy transfer is envisioned as a scale-to-scale Langevin process. Fluctuations in the sub-ion range show a global scale invariance, thus suggesting a homogeneous energy repartition. In this Letter, we interpret such a feature by linking the drift term of the Langevin equation to scaling properties of fluctuations. Theoretical expectations are verified on solar wind observations and numerical simulations thus giving relevance to the proposed framework for understanding kinetic-scale turbulence in space plasmas., Comment: Accepted for publication in Physical Review Research

The direct role of successive intense magnetospheric substorms in injecting/energizing particles into the storm-time ring current is still debated and controversial. Whereas in the recent past it has been observed the absence of a net information flow between magnetic storms and substorms, previous in-situ satellite observations have evidenced that ionospheric-origin ions dominate the population of the ring current during the main phase of geomagnetic storms. As a matter of fact, the controversy arises mainly by the use of sophisticated data-driven techniques somewhat contradicting in-situ measurements. In this framework, the main aim of this work is to attempt an adaption of the powerful information-theoretic approach, i.e., the transfer entropy, in a consistent way with physics modeling and observations and to explore the possible motivations behind the underlying contradictions that emerge when these techniques are used. Our idea is to characterize the dynamics of the information flow within the magnetosphere-ionosphere system using a database of geomagnetic storms instead of considering a long time series of geomagnetic indices. This allows us to consider local non-stationary features of the information flow and, most importantly, to follow the transition from quiet to disturbed periods and vice-versa.

The Parker Solar Probe mission provides a unique opportunity to characterize several features of the solar wind at different heliocentric distances. Recent findings have shown a transition in the inertial range spectral and scaling properties around 0.4-0.5 au when moving away from the Sun. Here we provide, for the first time, how to reconcile these observational results on the radial evolution of the magnetic and velocity field fluctuations with two scenarios drawn from the magnetohydrodynamic theory. The observed breakdown is the result of the radial evolution of magnetic field fluctuations and plasma thermal expansion affecting the distribution between magnetic and velocity fluctuations. The two scenarios point towards an evolving nature of the coupling between fields that can be also reconciled with Kraichnan and Kolmogorov pictures of turbulence. Our findings have important implications for turbulence studies and modeling approaches., Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures

In the framework of statistical time series analysis of complex dynamics we present a multiscale characterization of solar wind turbulence in the near-Earth environment. The data analysis, based on the Markov-process theory, is meant to estimate the Kramers-Moyal coefficients associated with the measured magnetic field fluctuations. In fact, when the scale-to-scale dynamics can be successfully described as a Markov process, first- and second-order Kramers-Moyal coefficients provide a complete description of the dynamics in terms of Langevin stochastic process. The analysis is carried out by using high-resolution magnetic field measurements gathered by Cluster during a fast solar wind period on January 20, 2007. This analysis extends recent findings in the near-Sun environment with the aim of testing the universality of the Markovian nature of the magnetic field fluctuations in the sub-ion/kinetic domain.

The dynamics of the Earth's magnetosphere exhibits strongly fluctuating patterns as well as non-stationary and non-linear interactions, more pronounced during magnetospheric substorms and magnetic storms. This complex dynamics comprises both stochastic and deterministic features occurring at different time scales. Here we investigate the stochastic nature of the magnetospheric substorm dynamics by analysing the Markovian character of SuperMAG SME and SML geomagnetic indices. By performing the Chapman-Kolmogorov test, the SME/SML dynamics appears to satisfy the Markov condition at scales below 60 minutes. The Kramers-Moyal analysis instead highlights that a purely diffusive process is not representative of the magnetospheric dynamics, thus a model that includes both diffusion and Poisson-jump processes is used to reproduce the SME dynamical features at small scales. A discussion of the similarities and differences between this model and the SME properties is provided with a special emphasis on the metastability of the Earth's magnetospheric dynamics. Finally, the relevance of our results in the framework of Space Weather is also addressed.

The interplanetary magnetic field carried out from the Sun by the solar wind displays fluctuations on a wide range of scales. While at large scales, say at frequencies lower than 0.1-1 Hz, fluctuations display clear universal characteristics of fully developed turbulence with a well defined Kolmogorov's like inertial range, the physical and dynamical properties of the small-scale regime as well as their connection with the large-scale ones are still a debated topic. In this work we investigate the near-Sun magnetic field fluctuations at sub-proton scales by analyzing the Markov property of fluctuations and recovering basic information about the nature of the energy transfer across different scales. By evaluating the Kramers-Moyal coefficients we find that fluctuations in the sub-proton range are well described as a Markovian process with Probability Density Functions (PDFs) modeled via a Fokker-Planck (FP) equation. Furthermore, we show that the shape of the PDFs is globally scale-invariant and similar to the one recovered for the stationary solution of the FP equation at different scales. The relevance of our results on the Markovian character of sub-proton scale fluctuations is also discussed in connection with the occurrence of turbulence in this domain.